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At least 289 records · Page 16

Vertical Drop Testing and Simulation of Anthropomorphic Test Devices

A series of 14 vertical impact tests were conducted using Hybrid III 50th Percentile and Hybrid II 50th Percentile Anthropomorphic Test Devices (ATDs) at NASA Langley Research Center. The purpose of conducting these tests was threefold: to compare and contrast the impact responses of Hybrid II and Hybrid III ATDs under two different loading conditions, to compare the impact responses of the Hybrid III configured with a nominal curved lumbar spine to that of a Hybrid III configured with a straight lumbar spine, and to generate data for comparison with predicted responses from two commercially available ATD finite element models. The two loading conditions examined were a high magnitude, short duration acceleration pulse, and a low magnitude, long duration acceleration pulse, each created by using different paper honeycomb blocks as pulse shape generators in the drop tower. The test results show that the Hybrid III results differ from the Hybrid II results more for the high magnitude, short duration pulse case. The comparison of the lumbar loads for each ATD configuration show drastic differences in the loads seen in the spine. The analytical results show major differences between the responses of the two finite element models. A detailed discussion of possible sources of the discrepancies between the two analytical models is also provided.

Polanco, Michael A.↗

Open Science for Life in Space

Understanding how biology changes in response spaceflight and how these changes affect crew and craft is important to the design of safe, robust and effective space missions. Advances in analytical technologies allow large volumes of new data to be generated from space biological experiments, and a growing library of legacy data can be re-analyzed in the context of a greater understanding of biological systems. This enables powerful insights into how biology changes during spaceflight. However, for this to be fully realized additional tools, programs, and communities must be developed. Now a developing suite of interconnected open science resources (GeneLab, the Ames Life Sciences Data Archive, the NASA Biological Institutional Science Collection, the Biospecimen Sharing Program) can be leveraged by dedicated Analysis Working Groups to accelerate the pace of discovery in the space biological sciences.

Open Science↗

Accurate Machine Learning for Predicting the Viscosities of Deep Eutectic Solvents

Deep eutectic solvents (DESs) are emerging as environmentally friendly designer solvents for mass transport and heat transfer processes in industrial applications; however, the lack of accurate tools to predict and thus control their viscosities under both a range of environmental factors and formulations hinders their general application. While DESs may serve as designer solvents, with nearly unlimited combinations, this unfortunately makes it experimentally infeasible to comprehensively measure the viscosities of all DESs of potential industrial interest. To assist in the design of DESs, we have developed several new machine learning (ML) models that accurately and rapidly predict the viscosities of a diverse group of DESs at different temperatures and molar ratios using, to date, one of the most comprehensive data sets containing the properties of over 670 DESs over a wide range of temperatures (278.15–385.25 K). Three ML models, including support vector regression (SVR), feed forward neural networks (FFNNs), and categorical boosting (CatBoost), were developed to predict DES viscosity as a function of temperature and molar ratio and contrasted with multilinear and two-factor polynomial regression baselines. Further, quantum chemistry-based, COSMO-RS-derived sigma profile (σ-profile) features were used as inputs for the ML models. The CatBoost model is excellent at externally predicting DES viscosity, as indicated by high R 2 (0.99) and low root-mean-square-error (RMSE) and average absolute relative deviations (AARD) (5.22%) values for the testing data sets, and 98% of the data points lie within the 15% of AARD deviations. Furthermore, SHapley additive explanation (SHAP) analysis was employed to interpret the ML results and rationalize the viscosity predictions. The result is an ML approach that accurately predicts viscosity and will aid in accelerating the design of appropriate DESs for industrial applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Determination of the Maturation Status of Dendritic Cells by Applying Pattern Recognition to High-Resolution Images

The maturation or activation status of dendritic cells (DCs) directly correlates with their behavior and immunofunction. A common means to determine the maturity of dendritic cells is from high-resolution images acquired via scanning electron microscopy (SEM) or atomic force microscopy (AFM). While direct and visual, the determination has been made by directly looking at the images by researchers. Here we report a machine learning approach using pattern recognition in conjunction with cellular biophysical knowledge of dendritic cells to determine the maturation status of dendritic cells automatically. The determination from AFM images reaches 100% accuracy. The results from SEM images reaches 94.9%. The results demonstrate the accuracy of using machine learning for accelerating data analysis, extracting information, and drawing conclusions from high-resolution cellular images, paving the way for future applications requiring high-throughput and automation, such as cellular sorting and selection based on morphology, quantification of cellular structure, and DC-based immunotherapy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Modeling and measuring limb fine-motor unsteadiness

Fine-motor unsteadiness its properties, conceptual and analytical models, and experimental measurements is examined. Based on a data review, the tentative model derived includes: neuromuscular system, grip interface, and control system dynamic elements. The properties of this model change with muscle tension and match a wide group of extant data. A simple experiment was performed to investigate the amplitude/force relationships of the tremor mode. As the finger-pull force increased from 5 to 20 Newtons, the tremor mode frequency for a given individual stayed within roughly + or - 1 Hz over a range from 9-12 Hz, while the average magnitude of the rms tremor acceleration increased tenfold. A standardized test for making such measurements is given and applications in the fields of psychophysiological stress and strain measurements are mentioned.

Magdaleno, R. E.↗

Development of a Space Radiation Monte-Carlo Computer Simulation Based on the FLUKE and Root Codes

The radiation environment in space is a complex problem to model. Trying to extrapolate the projections of that environment into all areas of the internal spacecraft geometry is even more daunting. With the support of our CERN colleagues, our research group in Houston is embarking on a project to develop a radiation transport tool that is tailored to the problem of taking the external radiation flux incident on any particular spacecraft and simulating the evolution of that flux through a geometrically accurate model of the spacecraft material. The output will be a prediction of the detailed nature of the resulting internal radiation environment within the spacecraft as well as its secondary albedo. Beyond doing the physics transport of the incident flux, the software tool we are developing will provide a self-contained stand-alone object-oriented analysis and visualization infrastructure. It will also include a graphical user interface and a set of input tools to facilitate the simulation of space missions in terms of nominal radiation models and mission trajectory profiles. The goal of this project is to produce a code that is considerably more accurate and user-friendly than existing Monte-Carlo-based tools for the evaluation of the space radiation environment. Furthermore, the code will be an essential complement to the currently existing analytic codes in the BRYNTRN/HZETRN family for the evaluation of radiation shielding. The code will be directly applicable to the simulation of environments in low earth orbit, on the lunar surface, on planetary surfaces (including the Earth) and in the interplanetary medium such as on a transit to Mars (and even in the interstellar medium). The software will include modules whose underlying physics base can continue to be enhanced and updated for physics content, as future data become available beyond the timeframe of the initial development now foreseen. This future maintenance will be available from the authors of FLUKA as part of their continuing efforts to support the users of the FLUKA code within the particle physics community. In keeping with the spirit of developing an evolving physics code, we are planning as part of this project, to participate in the efforts to validate the core FLUKA physics in ground-based accelerator test runs. The emphasis of these test runs will be the physics of greatest interest in the simulation of the space radiation environment. Such a tool will be of great value to planners, designers and operators of future space missions, as well as for the design of the vehicles and habitats to be used on such missions. It will also be of aid to future experiments of various kinds that may be affected at some level by the ambient radiation environment, or in the analysis of hybrid experiment designs that have been discussed for space-based astronomy and astrophysics. The tool will be of value to the Life Sciences personnel involved in the prediction and measurement of radiation doses experienced by the crewmembers on such missions. In addition, the tool will be of great use to the planners of experiments to measure and evaluate the space radiation environment itself. It can likewise be useful in the analysis of safe havens, hazard migration plans, and NASA's call for new research in composites and to NASA engineers modeling the radiation exposure of electronic circuits. This code will provide an important complimentary check on the predictions of analytic codes such as BRYNTRN/HZETRN that are presently used for many similar applications, and which have shortcomings that are more easily overcome with Monte Carlo type simulations. Finally, it is acknowledged that there are similar efforts based around the use of the GEANT4 Monte-Carlo transport code currently under development at CERN. It is our intention to make our software modular and sufficiently flexible to allow the parallel use of either FLUKA or GEANT4 as the physics transport engine.

Pinsky, L. S.↗

Stardust-NExT, Deep Impact, and the Accelerating Spin of 9P/Tempel One

The evolution of the spin rate of comet 9P/Tempel 1 through two perihelion passages (CYs 2000 and 2005) is determined from 1922 Earth-based observations taken over a period of 13y as part of a World-Wide observing campaign and 2888 observations taken over a period of 50d from the Deep Impact spacecraft. We determine the following sidereal spin rates (periods): 209.023 +/- 0.025 degrees /day (41.335 +/- 0.005 h) prior to the 2000 perihelion passage, 210.448 +/- 0.016 degrees/day (41.055 +/- 0.003 h) for the interval between the 2000 and 2005 perihelion passages, 211.856 +/- 0.030 degrees/day (40.783 +/- 0.006 h) from Deep Impact photometry just prior to the 2005 perihelion passage, and 211.625 +/- 0.012 degrees /day (40.827 +/- 0.002 h) in the interval 2006-2010 following the 2005 perihelion passage. The period decreased by 16.8 +/- 0.3 min during the 2000 passage and by 13.7 +/- 0.2 min during the 2005 passage suggesting a secular decrease in the net torque. The change in spin rate is asymmetric with respect to perihelion with the maximum net torque being applied on approach to perihelion. The Deep Impact data alone show that the spin rate was increasing at a rate of 0.024 +/- 0.003 degree/d/d at JD2453530.60510 (i.e., 25.134 d before impact) and provides independent confirmation of the change seen in the Earth-based observations. The rotational phase of the nucleus at times before and after each perihelion and at the Deep Impact encounter is estimated based on the Thomas et al. pole and longitude system. The possibility of a 180 degree error in the rotational phase is assessed and found to be significant. Analytical and physical modeling of the behavior of the spin rate through of each perihelion is presented and used as a basis to predict the rotational state of the nucleus at the time of the nominal (i.e., prior to February 2010) Stardust-NExT encounter on 2011 February 14 20:42. We find that a net torque in the range of 0.3 - 2.5 x 10(exp 7) kg.square m2/square s acts on the nucleus during perihelion passage. The spin rate initially slows down on approach to perihelion and then passes through a minimum. It then accelerates rapidly as it passes through perihelion eventually reaching a maximum post-perihelion. It then decreases to a stable value as the nucleus moves away from the sun. We find that the pole direction is unlikely to precess by more than approximately 1 degree/perihelion passage. The trend of the period with time and the fact that the modeled peak torque that occurs before perihelion is in agreement with published accounts of trends in water production rate and suggests that widespread H2O out-gassing from the surface is largely responsible for the observed spin-up.

Belton, Michael J. S.↗

NEXTorch: A Design and Bayesian Optimization Toolkit for Chemical Sciences and Engineering

Automation and optimization of chemical systems require well-informed decisions on what experiments to run to reduce time, materials, and/or computations. Data-driven active learning algorithms have emerged as valuable tools to solve such tasks. Bayesian optimization, a sequential global optimization approach, is a popular active-learning framework. Past studies have demonstrated its efficiency in solving chemistry and engineering problems. Here we introduce NEXTorch, a library in Python/PyTorch, to facilitate laboratory or computational design using Bayesian optimization. NEXTorch offers fast predictive modeling, flexible optimization loops, visualization capabilities, easy interfacing with legacy software, and multiple types of parameters and data type conversions. It provides GPU acceleration, parallelization, and state-of-the-art Bayesian optimization algorithms and supports both automated an d human-in-the-loop optimization. The comprehensive online documentation introduces Bayesian optimization theory and several examples from catalyst synthesis, reaction condition optimization, parameter estimation, and reactor geometry optimization. NEXTorch is open-source and available on GitHub

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Induction Heating Model of Cermet Fuel Element Environmental Test (CFEET)

Deep space missions with large payloads require high specific impulse and relatively high thrust to achieve mission goals in reasonable time frames. Nuclear Thermal Rockets (NTR) are capable of producing a high specific impulse by employing heat produced by a fission reactor to heat and therefore accelerate hydrogen through a rocket nozzle providing thrust. Fuel element temperatures are very high (up to 3000 K) and hydrogen is highly reactive with most materials at high temperatures. Data covering the effects of high‐temperature hydrogen exposure on fuel elements are limited. The primary concern is the mechanical failure of fuel elements due to large thermal gradients; therefore, high‐melting‐point ceramics‐metallic matrix composites (cermets) are one of the fuels under consideration as part of the Nuclear Cryogenic Propulsion Stage (NCPS) Advance Exploration System (AES) technology project at the Marshall Space Flight Center. The purpose of testing and analytical modeling is to determine their ability to survive and maintain thermal performance in a prototypical NTR reactor environment of exposure to hydrogen at very high temperatures and obtain data to assess the properties of the non‐nuclear support materials. The fission process and the resulting heating performance are well known and do not require that active fissile material to be integrated in this testing. A small‐scale test bed; Compact Fuel Element Environmental Tester (CFEET), designed to heat fuel element samples via induction heating and expose samples to hydrogen is being developed at MSFC to assist in optimal material and manufacturing process selection without utilizing fissile material. This paper details the analytical approach to help design and optimize the test bed using COMSOL Multiphysics for predicting thermal gradients induced by electromagnetic heating (Induction heating) and Thermal Desktop for radiation calculations.

Gomez, C. F.↗

Induction Heating Model of Cermet Fuel Element Environmental Test (CFEET)

Deep space missions with large payloads require high specific impulse and relatively high thrust to achieve mission goals in reasonable time frames. Nuclear Thermal Rockets (NTR) are capable of producing a high specific impulse by employing heat produced by a fission reactor to heat and therefore accelerate hydrogen through a rocket nozzle providing thrust. Fuel element temperatures are very high (up to 3000 K) and hydrogen is highly reactive with most materials at high temperatures. Data covering the effects of high‐temperature hydrogen exposure on fuel elements are limited. The primary concern is the mechanical failure of fuel elements due to large thermal gradients; therefore, high‐melting‐point ceramics‐metallic matrix composites (cermets) are one of the fuels under consideration as part of the Nuclear Cryogenic Propulsion Stage (NCPS) Advance Exploration System (AES) technology project at the Marshall Space Flight Center. The purpose of testing and analytical modeling is to determine their ability to survive and maintain thermal performance in a prototypical NTR reactor environment of exposure to hydrogen at very high temperatures and obtain data to assess the properties of the non‐nuclear support materials. The fission process and the resulting heating performance are well known and do not require that active fissile material to be integrated in this testing. A small‐scale test bed; Compact Fuel Element Environmental Tester (CFEET), designed to heat fuel element samples via induction heating and expose samples to hydrogen is being developed at MSFC to assist in optimal material and manufacturing process selection without utilizing fissile material. This paper details the analytical approach to help design and optimize the test bed using COMSOL Multiphysics for predicting thermal gradients induced by electromagnetic heating (Induction heating) and Thermal Desktop for radiation calculations.

Gomez, Carlos F.↗

Physics-guided dual implicit neural representations for source separation

Significant challenges exist in efficient data analysis of most advanced experimental and observational techniques because the collected signals often include unwanted contributions, such as background and signal distortions, that can obscure the physically relevant information of interest. To address this, we have developed a self-supervised machine-learning approach for source separation using a dual implicit neural representation framework that jointly trains two neural networks: one for approximating distortions of the physical signal of interest and the other for learning the effective background contribution. Our method learns directly from the raw data by minimizing a reconstruction-based loss function without requiring labeled data or pre-defined dictionaries. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework by considering a challenging case study involving large-scale simulated, as well as experimental, momentum-energy-dependent inelastic neutron scattering data in a four-dimensional parameter space, characterized by heterogeneous background contributions and unknown distortions to the target signal. The method is found to successfully separate physically meaningful signals from a complex or structured background even when the signal characteristics vary across all four dimensions of the parameter space. An analytical approach that informs the choice of the regularization parameter is presented. Our method offers a versatile framework for addressing source separation problems across diverse domains, ranging from superimposed signals in astronomical measurements to structural features in biomedical image reconstructions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Accelerating the rate of discovery: toward high-repetition-rate HED science

As high-intensity short-pulse lasers that can operate at high-repetition-rate (HRR) (>10 H z ) come online around the world, the high energy density (HED) science they enable will experience a radical paradigm shift. The >10 3 increase in shot rate over today's shot-per-hour drivers translates into dramatically faster data acquisition, more experiments, and the ability to exploit machine learning, and thus the potential to significantly accelerate the advancement of HED science. A wide range of HED experiments, from opacity investigations to secondary source generation to plasma nuclear physics, will benefit from the increased statistics, precision, and exploration of phase space. Besides increasing the rate at which scientific experiments can be performed, HRR also allows for the rapid delivery of optimal experiments supported by simulations and modeling augmented by close coupling to empirical data. To fully realize such an HRR framework, numerous subsystems must be developed and brought together, including feedback laser control loops, high-throughput targetry and diagnostics, cognitive simulation, enhanced HED codes, and advanced data analytics. This paper describes the vision for an integrated HRR laser experimental HED system and outlines some of the major considerations and challenges for realizing it.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Finding Electronic Structure Machine Learning Surrogates without Training

A myriad of phenomena in materials science and chemistry rely on quantum-level simulations of the electronic structure in matter. While moving to larger length and time scales has been a pressing issue for decades, such large-scale electronic structure calculations are still challenging despite modern software approaches and advances in high-performance computing. The silver lining in this regard is the use of machine learning to accelerate electronic structure calculations – this line of research has recently gained growing attention. The grand challenge therein is finding a suitable machine-learning model during a process called hyperparameter optimization. This, however, causes a massive computational overhead in addition to that of data generation. We accelerate the construction of machine-learning surrogate models by roughly two orders of magnitude by circumventing excessive training during the hyperparameter optimization phase. We demonstrate our workflow for Kohn-Sham density functional theory, the most popular computational method in materials science and chemistry.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Space Launch System Scale Model Acoustic Test Ignition Overpressure Testing

The overpressure phenomenon is a transient fluid dynamic event occurring during rocket propulsion system ignition. This phenomenon results from fluid compression of the accelerating plume gas, subsequent rarefaction, and subsequent propagation from the exhaust trench and duct holes. The high-amplitude unsteady fluid-dynamic perturbations can adversely affect the vehicle and surrounding structure. Commonly known as ignition overpressure (IOP), this is an important design-to environment for the Space Launch System (SLS) that NASA is currently developing. Subscale testing is useful in validating and verifying the IOP environment. This was one of the objectives of the Scale Model Acoustic Test, conducted at Marshall Space Flight Center. The test data quantifies the effectiveness of the SLS IOP suppression system and improves the analytical models used to predict the SLS IOP environments. The reduction and analysis of the data gathered during the SMAT IOP test series requires identification and characterization of multiple dynamic events and scaling of the event waveforms to provide the most accurate comparisons to determine the effectiveness of the IOP suppression systems. The identification and characterization of the overpressure events, the waveform scaling, the computation of the IOP suppression system knockdown factors, and preliminary comparisons to the analytical models are discussed.

Nance, Donald↗

EdgeCortix SAKURA-I Machine-Learning, PCIe Accelerator SEE Heavy Ion Test Report

To enable autonomy in space, machine-learning and computer vision applications become invaluable for sensor processing. However, these algorithms are computationally complex and unfeasible for many embedded central processing units (CPUs) and usually require external coprocessors, such as graphics processing units (GPUs) or accelerators specific to the application, including application specific integrated circuits (ASICs). In power-constrained systems, GPUs tend to consume more power than is acceptable (>40W), so lower-power accelerators have shown promise to provide the performance needed under spacecraft constraints. For radiation engineers, developing methodologies that can properly test CPUs, GPUs, and accelerators, and enable comparisons between them remains a necessary complication to solve as the devices become more complex. The methodology in this test aims to be a start in developing a baseline single-event effect (SEE) test for client-device machine learning accelerators. This category of devices do not host their own operating system. This testing campaign is a continuation of a previous 200 MeV proton test performed in January 2024. This report covers two heavy ion tests of the SAKURA-I card: one in April 2024, and one in June 2024. Additional data was needed after the April test due to ion-range issues experienced at higher linear-energy transfers (LETs). These range issues are described in more detail in Section 8. This experiment characterizes SEEs and data error susceptibility of the EdgeCortix SAKURA-I machine-learning accelerator under heavy ions. The device was monitored for single event upsets (SEUs) and single event functional interrupts (SEFIs) at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s 88-inch cyclotron. The SAKURA-I board accelerates machine-learning inference applications on a host computer through a PCIex16 connection. For the purposes of devising an end to end automated analysis workflow for this experiment, the YOLO-V5 and SSD300 objection-detection models, and the ResNet-50, EfficientNet, and MobileNetV2 image classification models were used as a representative suite of analytical machine-learning models.

Seth S Roffe↗

Analytical and experimental investigations of human spine flexure.

The authors report on experiments to measure the resistance of fresh human spines to flexion in the upper lumbar and lower thoracic regions and evaluate results by using a combination of strength of materials theory and effects of shear and comparing with data reported by other authors. The test results indicate that the thoraco-lumbar spine behaves approximately as a linear elastic beam, without relaxation effects. The authors formulate a simple continuum dynamic model of the spine simulating aircraft ejection and solve the resulting boundary value problem to illustrate the importance of the flexural mode. A constant cross-section, the selected model is a sinusoidally curved elastic beam with an end mass subjected to a Heaviside axial acceleration at the other end. The paper presents transient response results for the spinal model axial and bending displacements and axial force.-

Moffatt, C. A.↗

Investigation of advanced counterrotation blade configuration concepts for high speed turboprop systems. Task 5: Unsteady counterrotation ducted propfan analysis

The primary objective of this study was the development of a time-marching three-dimensional Euler/Navier-Stokes aerodynamic analysis to predict steady and unsteady compressible transonic flows about ducted and unducted propfan propulsion systems employing multiple blade rows. The computer codes resulting from this study are referred to as ADPAC-AOAR\CR (Advanced Ducted Propfan Analysis Codes-Angle of Attack Coupled Row). This document is the final report describing the theoretical basis and analytical results from the ADPAC-AOACR codes developed under task 5 of NASA Contract NAS3-25270, Unsteady Counterrotating Ducted Propfan Analysis. The ADPAC-AOACR Program is based on a flexible multiple blocked grid discretization scheme permitting coupled 2-D/3-D mesh block solutions with application to a wide variety of geometries. For convenience, several standard mesh block structures are described for turbomachinery applications. Aerodynamic calculations are based on a four-stage Runge-Kutta time-marching finite volume solution technique with added numerical dissipation. Steady flow predictions are accelerated by a multigrid procedure. Numerical calculations are compared with experimental data for several test cases to demonstrate the utility of this approach for predicting the aerodynamics of modern turbomachinery configurations employing multiple blade rows.

Hall, Edward J.↗

Stardust-NExT, Deep Impact, and the Accelerating Spin of 9P/Tempel 1

The evolution of the spin rate of Comet 9P/Tempel 1 through two perihelion passages (in 2000 and 2005) is determined from 1922 Earth-based observations taken over a period of 13 year as part of a World-Wide observing campaign and from 2888 observations taken over a period of 50 days from the Deep Impact spacecraft. We determine the following sidereal spin rates (periods): 209.023 +/- 0.025deg/dy (41.335 0.005 h) prior to the 2000 perihelion passage, 210.448 +/- 0.016deg/dy (41.055 +/- 0.003 h) for the interval between the 2000 and 2005 perihelion passages, 211.856 +/- 0.030deg/dy (40.783 +/- 0.006 h) from Deep Impact photometry just prior to the 2005 perihelion passage, and 211.625 +/- 0.012deg/dy (40.827 +/- 0.002 h) in the interval 2006-2010 following the 2005 perihelion passage. The period decreased by 16.8 +/- 0.3 min during the 2000 passage and by 13.7 +/- 0.2 min during the 2005 passage suggesting a secular decrease in the net torque. The change in spin rate is asymmetric with respect to perihelion with the maximum net torque being applied on approach to perihelion. The Deep Impact data alone show that the spin rate was increasing at a rate of 0.024 +/- 0.003deg/dy/dy at JD2453530.60510 (i.e., 25.134 dy before impact), which provides independent confirmation of the change seen in the Earth-based observations. The rotational phase of the nucleus at times before and after each perihelion and at the Deep Impact encounter is estimated based on the Thomas et al. (Thomas et al. [2007]. Icarus 187, 4-15) pole and longitude system. The possibility of a 180deg error in the rotational phase is assessed and found to be significant. Analytical and physical modeling of the behavior of the spin rate through of each perihelion is presented and used as a basis to predict the rotational state of the nucleus at the time of the nominal (i.e., prior to February 2010) Stardust-NExT encounter on 2011 February 14 at 20:42. We find that a net torque in the range of 0.3-2.5 x 10(exp 7) kg/sq m/sq s acts on the nucleus during perihelion passage. The spin rate initially slows down on approach to perihelion and then passes through a minimum. It then accelerates rapidly as it passes through perihelion eventually reaching a maximum post-perihelion. It then decreases to a stable value as the nucleus moves away from the Sun. We find that the pole direction is unlikely to precess by more than approx. 1deg per perihelion passage. The trend of the period with time and the fact that the modeled peak torque occurs before perihelion are in agreement with published accounts of trends in water production rate and suggests that widespread H2O out-gassing from the surface is largely responsible for the observed spin-up.

Belton, Michael J. S.↗