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At least 289 records · Page 16

Asymmetry in Subseasonal Surface Air Temperature Forecast Error with Respect to Soil Moisture Initialization

Soil moisture (W) helps control evapotranspiration (ET), and ET variations can in turn have a distinct impact on 2-m air temperature (T2M), given that increases in evaporative cooling encourage reduced temperatures. Soil moisture is accordingly linked to T2M, and realistic soil moisture initialization has, in previous studies, been shown to improve the skill of subseasonal T2M forecasts. The relationship between soil moisture and evapotranspiration, however, is distinctly nonlinear, with ET tending to increase with soil moisture in drier conditions and to be insensitive to soil moisture variations in wetter conditions. Here, through an extensive analysis of subseasonal forecasts produced with a state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system, this nonlinearity is shown to imprint itself on T2M forecast error in the conterminous United States in two unique ways: (i) the T2M forecast bias (relative to independent observations) induced by a negative precipitation bias tends to be larger for dry initializations, and (ii) on average, the unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE) tends to be larger for dry initializations. Such findings can aid in the identification of forecasts of opportunity; taken a step further, they suggest a pathway for improving bias correction and uncertainty estimation in subseasonal T2M forecasts by conditioning each on initial soil moisture state.

Air Temperature↗

Asymmetry in the Rate of Warming and the Phenology of Seasonal Blooms in the Northeast US Shelf Ecosystem

Predicting the impact of marine ecosystem warming on the timing and magnitude of phytoplankton production is challenging. For example, warming can advance the progression of stratification thereby changing the availability of nutrients to surface phytoplankton, or influence the surface mixed layer depth, thus affecting light availability. Here, we use a time series of sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll remote sensing products to characterize the response of the phytoplankton community to increased temperature in the Northeast US Shelf Ecosystem. The rate of change in SST was higher in the summer than in winter in all ecoregions resulting in little change in the timing and magnitude of the spring thermal transition compared to a significant change in the autumn transition. Along with little phenological shift in spring thermal conditions, there was also no evidence of a change in spring bloom timing and duration. However, we observed a change in autumn bloom timing in the Georges Bank ecoregion, where bloom initiation has shifted from late September to late October between 1998 and 2020—on average 33 d later. Bloom duration in this ecoregion also shortened from ∼7.5 to 5 weeks. The shortened autumn bloom may be caused by later overturn in stratification known to initiate autumn blooms in the region, whereas the timing of light limitation at the end of the bloom remains unchanged. These changes in bloom timing and duration appear to be related to the change in autumn thermal conditions and the significant shift in autumn thermal transition. These results suggest that the spring bloom phenology in this temperate continental shelf ecosystem may be more resilient to thermal climate change effects than blooms occurring in other times of the year.

climate change↗

DNA Break Clustering as a Predictor of Cell Death across Various Radiation Qualities: Influence of Cell Size, Cell Asymmetry, and Beam Orientation

Cosmic radiation, composed of high charge and energy (HZE) particles, causes cellular DNA damage that can result in cell death or mutation that can evolve into cancer. In this work, a cell death model is applied to several cell lines exposed to HZE ions spanning a broad range of linear energy transfer (LET) values. We hypothesize that chromatin movement leads to the clustering of multiple double strand breaks (DSB) within one radiation-induced foci (RIF). The survival probability of a cell population is determined by averaging the survival probabilities of individual cells, which is function of the number of pairwise DSB interactions within RIF. The simulation code RITCARD was used to compute DSB. Two clustering approaches were applied to determine the number of RIF per cell. RITCARD outputs were combined with experimental data from four normal human cell lines to derive the model parameters and expand its predictions in response to ions with LET ranging from ∼0.2keV/μmto∼3000keV/μm. Spherical and ellipsoidal nuclear shapes and two ion beam orientations were modeled to assess the impact of geometrical properties on cell death. The calculated average number of RIF per cell reproduces the saturation trend for high doses and high-LET values that is usually experimentally observed. The cell survival model generates the recognizable bell shape of LET dependence for the relative biological effectiveness (RBE). At low LET, smaller nuclei have lower survival due to increased DNA density and DSB clustering. At high LET, nuclei with a smaller irradiation area either because of a smaller size or a change in beam orientation have a higher survival rate due to a change in the distribution of DSB/RIF per cell. If confirmed experimentally, the geometric characteristics of cells would become a significant factor in predicting radiation-induced biological effects.

cell survival↗

Hemispheric Symmetry and Asymmetry of Poleward Moving Radar Auroral Forms (PMRAFs) and Associated Polar Cap Patches During a Geomagnetic Storm

Magnetopause reconnection is known to impact the dayside ionosphere by driving fast ionospheric flows, auroral transients, and high density plasma structures named polar cap patches. However, most of the observed reconnection impact is limited to one hemisphere, and a question arises as to how symmetric the impact is between hemispheres.

hemispheric symmetry/asymmetry↗