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DOE OSTI2022

Validation of standardized data formats and tools for ground-level particle-based gamma-ray observatories

Context. Ground-based γ-ray astronomy is still a rather young field of research, with strong historical connections to particle physics. This is why most observations are conducted by experiments with proprietary data and analysis software, as is usual in the particle physics field. However, in recent years, this paradigm has been slowly shifting toward the development and use of open-source data formats and tools, driven by upcoming observatories such as the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA). In this context, a community-driven, shared data format (the gamma-astro-data-format, or GADF) and analysis tools such as Gammapy and ctools have been developed. So far, these efforts have been led by the Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescope community, leaving out other types of ground-based γ-ray instruments. Aims. We aim to show that the data from ground particle arrays, such as the High-Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) observatory, are also compatible with the GADF and can thus be fully analyzed using the related tools, in this case, Gammapy. Methods. We reproduced several published HAWC results using Gammapy and data products compliant with GADF standard. We also illustrate the capabilities of the shared format and tools by producing a joint fit of the Crab spectrum including data from six different γ-ray experiments. Results. We find excellent agreement with the reference results, a powerful confirmation of both the published results and the tools involved. Conclusions. The data from particle detector arrays such as the HAWC observatory can be adapted to the GADF and thus analyzed with Gammapy. A common data format and shared analysis tools allow multi-instrument joint analysis and effective data sharing. To emphasize this, a sample of Crab nebula event lists is made public with this paper. Because of the complementary nature of pointing and wide-field instruments, this synergy will be distinctly beneficial for the joint scientific exploitation of future observatories such as the Southern Wide-field Gamma-ray Observatory and CTA.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2010

Neutrino Nuclear Responses for Neutrino Studies in Nuclear Femto Laboratories

Fundamental properties of neutrinos and neutrino nuclear interactions are of great interest from particle and astro-nuclear physics view points. They are well studied in nuclear femto laboratories, where neutrino nuclear responses are crucial. Neutrino masses and neutrino natures are studied by neutrino-less double beta decays (0{nu}{beta}{beta}) in nuclei. Here neutrino nuclear responses are required to extract neutrino properties from 0{nu}{beta}{beta} rates. Neutrino nuclear responses are sensitive to nuclear spin isospin correlations and nuclear structures. They are experimentally studied by nuclear probes for charge exchange nuclear reactions, photon EM probes for photo-nuclear reactions, and lepton probes for muon and neutrino capture reactions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2011

Gamow-Teller Transitions Starting from T{sub z} = +3/2 Nucleus {sup 47}Ti

Gamow-Teller (GT) transitions are mediated by the {sigma}{tau} operator. Owing to its simplicity and also its spin-isospin nature, GT transitions play key roles in the studies of nuclear structure as well as astro-nuclear processes. In violent neutrino-induced reactions at the core-collapse stage of type II supernovae, Gamow-Teller (GT) transitions starting from stable as well as unstable pf-shell nuclei play important roles. We study GT transitions starting from {sup 47}Ti in a high-resolution ({sup 3}He,t) charge-exchange reactions at 0 deg. and at an intermediate incident energy of 140 MeV/nucleon at Research Center for Nuclear Physics (RCNP), Osaka. Individual GT transitions up to high excitations were observed. Assuming the isospin symmetry for the strengths of T{sub z} = {+-}3/2{yields}{+-}1/2 analogous GT transitions, we can deduce the detailed strength distribution starting from mirror unstable nucleus {sup 47}Mn.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2011

Gamow-Teller Transitions Starting from T{sub z} = +3/2 Nucleus {sup 45}Sc

Owing to its simplicity and also its nature of spin-isospin ({sigma}{tau}) excitation, Gamow-Teller (GT) transitions play key roles in the studies of nuclear structure as well as astro-nuclear processes. We studied GT transitions starting from {sup 45}Sc in a high-resolution ({sup 3}He,t) charge-exchange reactions at 0 deg. and at an intermediate incoming energy of 140 MeV/nucleon. Individual GT transitions were observed up to high excitation energy of 10 MeV and a concentration of GT strength, a resonance-like structure, was observed at 6.5 MeV.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2011

EXPLORATION OF SOURCE FREQUENCY PHASE REFERENCING TECHNIQUES FOR ASTROMETRY AND OBSERVATIONS OF WEAK SOURCES WITH HIGH FREQUENCY SPACE VERY LONG BASELINE INTERFEROMETRY

Space very long baseline interferometry (S-VLBI) observations at high frequencies hold the prospect of achieving the highest angular resolutions and astrometric accuracies, resulting from the long baselines between ground and satellite telescopes. Nevertheless, space-specific issues, such as limited accuracy in the satellite orbit reconstruction and constraints on the satellite antenna pointing operations, limit the application of conventional phase referencing. We investigate the feasibility of an alternative technique, source frequency phase referencing (SFPR), to the S-VLBI domain. With these investigations we aim to contribute to the design of the next generation of S-VLBI missions. We have used both analytical and simulation studies to characterize the performance of SFPR in S-VLBI observations, applied to astrometry and increased coherence time, and compared these to results obtained using conventional phase referencing. The observing configurations use the specifications of the ASTRO-G mission for their starting point. Our results show that the SFPR technique enables astrometry at 43 GHz, using alternating observations with 22 GHz, regardless of the orbit errors, for most weathers and under a wide variety of conditions. The same applies to the increased coherence time for the detection of weak sources. Our studies show that the capability to carry out simultaneous dual frequency observations enables application to higher frequencies, and a general improvement of the performance in all cases, hence we recommend its consideration for S-VLBI programs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2011

DENSITY ESTIMATION FOR PROJECTED EXOPLANET QUANTITIES

Exoplanet searches using radial velocity (RV) and microlensing (ML) produce samples of 'projected' mass and orbital radius, respectively. We present a new method for estimating the probability density distribution (density) of the unprojected quantity from such samples. For a sample of n data values, the method involves solving n simultaneous linear equations to determine the weights of delta functions for the raw, unsmoothed density of the unprojected quantity that cause the associated cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the projected quantity to exactly reproduce the empirical CDF of the sample at the locations of the n data values. We smooth the raw density using nonparametric kernel density estimation with a normal kernel of bandwidth {sigma}. We calibrate the dependence of {sigma} on n by Monte Carlo experiments performed on samples drawn from a theoretical density, in which the integrated square error is minimized. We scale this calibration to the ranges of real RV samples using the Normal Reference Rule. The resolution and amplitude accuracy of the estimated density improve with n. For typical RV and ML samples, we expect the fractional noise at the PDF peak to be approximately 80 n{sup -log2}. For illustrations, we apply the new method to 67 RV values given a similar treatment by Jorissen et al. in 2001, and to the 308 RV values listed at exoplanets.org on 2010 October 20. In addition to analyzing observational results, our methods can be used to develop measurement requirements-particularly on the minimum sample size n-for future programs, such as the microlensing survey of Earth-like exoplanets recommended by the Astro 2010 committee.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2011

X-RAY DIAGNOSTICS OF GIANT MOLECULAR CLOUDS IN THE GALACTIC CENTER REGION AND PAST ACTIVITY OF Sgr A*

Strong iron fluorescence at 6.4 keV and hard-X-ray emissions from giant molecular clouds in the Galactic center region have been interpreted as reflections of a past outburst of the Sgr A* supermassive black hole. Careful treatment of multiple interactions of photons in a complicated geometry is essential to modeling the reprocessed emissions from the dense clouds. We develop a new calculation framework of X-ray reflection from molecular clouds based on Monte Carlo simulations for accurate interpretation of high-quality observational data. By utilizing this simulation framework, we present the first calculations of morphologies and spectra of the reflected X-ray emission for several realistic models of Sgr B2, which is the most massive molecular cloud in our Galaxy. The morphology of scattered hard X-rays above 20 keV is significantly different from that of iron fluorescence due to their large penetrating power into dense regions of the cloud, probing the structure of the cloud. High-resolution spectra provide quantitative evaluation of the iron line including its Compton shoulder to constrain the mass and the chemical composition of the cloud as well as the luminosity of the illuminating source. These predictions can be checked in the near future with future X-ray missions such as NuStar (hard X-rays) and ASTRO-H (both iron lines and hard X-rays).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2012

A GENERALIZED MODEL OF NONLINEAR DIFFUSIVE SHOCK ACCELERATION COUPLED TO AN EVOLVING SUPERNOVA REMNANT

To better model the efficient production of cosmic rays (CRs) in supernova remnants (SNRs) with the associated coupling between CR production and SNR dynamics, we have generalized an existing cr-hydro-NEI code to include the following processes: (1) an explicit calculation of the upstream precursor structure including the position-dependent flow speed, density, temperature, and magnetic field strength; (2) a momentum- and space-dependent CR diffusion coefficient; (3) an explicit calculation of magnetic field amplification; (4) calculation of the maximum CR momentum using the amplified magnetic field; (5) a finite Alfven speed for the particle scattering centers; and (6) the ability to accelerate a superthermal seed population of CRs, as well as the ambient thermal plasma. While a great deal of work has been done modeling SNRs, most work has concentrated on either the continuum emission from relativistic electrons or ions or the thermal emission from the shock heated plasma. Our generalized code combines these elements and describes the interplay between CR production and SNR evolution, including the nonlinear coupling of efficient diffusive shock acceleration, based mainly on the work of P. Blasi and coworkers, and a non-equilibrium ionization (NEI) calculation of thermal X-ray line emission. We believe that our generalized model will provide a consistent modeling platform for SNRs, including those interacting with molecular clouds, and improve the interpretation of current and future observations, including the high-quality spectra expected from Astro-H. SNR RX J1713.7-3946 is modeled as an example.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2012

SENSITIVITY OF STACKED IMAGING DETECTORS TO HARD X-RAY POLARIZATION

The development of multi-layer optics which allow to focus photons up to 100 keV and more promises an enormous jump in sensitivity in the hard X-ray energy band. This technology is already planned to be exploited by future missions dedicated to spectroscopy and imaging at energies >10 keV, e.g., Astro-H and NuSTAR. Nevertheless, our understanding of the hard X-ray sky would greatly benefit from carrying out contemporaneous polarimetric measurements, because the study of hard spectral tails and of polarized emission are often two complementary diagnostics of the same non-thermal and acceleration processes. At energies above a few tens of keV, the preferred technique to detect polarization involves the determination of photon directions after a Compton scattering. Many authors have asserted that stacked detectors with imaging capabilities can be exploited for this purpose. If it is possible to discriminate those events which initially interact in the first detector by Compton scattering and are subsequently absorbed by the second layer, then the direction of scattering is singled out from the hit pixels in the two detectors. In this paper, we give the first detailed discussion of the sensitivity of such a generic design to the X-ray polarization. The efficiency and the modulation factor are calculated analytically from the geometry of the instruments and then compared with the performance as derived by means of Geant4 Monte Carlo simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2012

A NEW METHOD TO CONSTRAIN SUPERNOVA FRACTIONS USING X-RAY OBSERVATIONS OF CLUSTERS OF GALAXIES

Supernova (SN) explosions enrich the intracluster medium (ICM) both by creating and dispersing metals. We introduce a method to measure the number of SNe and relative contribution of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and core-collapse supernovae (SNe cc) by directly fitting X-ray spectral observations. The method has been implemented as an XSPEC model called snapec. snapec utilizes a single-temperature thermal plasma code (apec) to model the spectral emission based on metal abundances calculated using the latest SN yields from SN Ia and SN cc explosion models. This approach provides a self-consistent single set of uncertainties on the total number of SN explosions and relative fraction of SN types in the ICM over the cluster lifetime by directly allowing these parameters to be determined by SN yields provided by simulations. We apply our approach to XMM-Newton European Photon Imaging Camera (EPIC), Reflection Grating Spectrometer (RGS), and 200 ks simulated Astro-H observations of a cooling flow cluster, A3112. We find that various sets of SN yields present in the literature produce an acceptable fit to the EPIC and RGS spectra of A3112. We infer that 30.3% {+-} 5.4% to 37.1% {+-} 7.1% of the total SN explosions are SNe Ia, and the total number of SN explosions required to create the observed metals is in the range of (1.06 {+-} 0.34) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 9} to (1.28 {+-} 0.43) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 9}, from snapec fits to RGS spectra. These values may be compared to the enrichment expected based on well-established empirically measured SN rates per star formed. The proportions of SNe Ia and SNe cc inferred to have enriched the ICM in the inner 52 kpc of A3112 is consistent with these specific rates, if one applies a correction for the metals locked up in stars. At the same time, the inferred level of SN enrichment corresponds to a star-to-gas mass ratio that is several times greater than the 10% estimated globally for clusters in the A3112 mass range.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2012

SPIRAL FLOWS IN COOL-CORE GALAXY CLUSTERS

We argue that bulk spiral flows are ubiquitous in the cool cores (CCs) of clusters and groups of galaxies. Such flows are gauged by spiral features in the thermal and chemical properties of the intracluster medium, by the multiphase properties of CCs, and by X-ray edges known as cold fronts. We analytically show that observations of piecewise-spiral fronts impose strong constraints on the CC, implying the presence of a cold, fast flow, which propagates below a hot, slow inflow, separated by a slowly rotating, trailing, quasi-spiral, tangential discontinuity surface. This leads to the nearly logarithmic spiral pattern, two-phase plasma, {rho} {approx} r{sup -1} density (or T {approx} r{sup 0.4} temperature) radial profile, and {approx}100 kpc size, characteristic of CCs. By advecting heat and mixing the gas, such flows can eliminate the cooling problem, provided that a feedback mechanism regulates the flow. In particular, we present a quasi-steady-state model for an accretion-quenched, composite flow, in which the fast phase is an outflow, regulated by active galactic nucleus bubbles, reproducing the observed low star formation rates and explaining some features of bubbles such as their R{sub b} {proportional_to}r size. The simplest two-component model reproduces several key properties of CCs, so we propose that all such cores harbor a spiral flow. Our results can be tested directly in the next few years, for example by ASTRO-H.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2012

THREE-DIMENSIONAL SIMULATIONS OF THE THERMAL X-RAY EMISSION FROM YOUNG SUPERNOVA REMNANTS INCLUDING EFFICIENT PARTICLE ACCELERATION

Supernova remnants (SNRs) are believed to be the major contributors to Galactic cosmic rays. The detection of non-thermal emission from SNRs demonstrates the presence of energetic particles, but direct signatures of protons and other ions remain elusive. If these particles receive a sizeable fraction of the explosion energy, the morphological and spectral evolution of the SNR must be modified. To assess this, we run three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of a remnant coupled with a nonlinear acceleration model. We obtain the time-dependent evolution of the shocked structure, impacted by the Rayleigh-Taylor hydrodynamic instabilities at the contact discontinuity and by the back-reaction of particles at the forward shock. We then compute the progressive temperature equilibration and non-equilibrium ionization state of the plasma, and its thermal emission in each cell. This allows us to produce the first realistic synthetic maps of the projected X-ray emission from the SNR. Plasma conditions (temperature and ionization age) can vary widely over the projected surface of the SNR, especially between the ejecta and the ambient medium owing to their different composition. This demonstrates the need for spatially resolved spectroscopy. We find that the integrated emission is reduced with particle back-reaction, with the effect being more significant for the highest photon energies. Therefore, different energy bands, corresponding to different emitting elements, probe different levels of the impact of particle acceleration. Our work provides a framework for the interpretation of SNR observations with current X-ray missions (Chandra, XMM-Newton, and Suzaku) and with upcoming X-ray missions (such as Astro-H).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2013

TESTING THE NO-HAIR THEOREM WITH OBSERVATIONS IN THE ELECTROMAGNETIC SPECTRUM. IV. RELATIVISTICALLY BROADENED IRON LINES

According to the no-hair theorem, astrophysical black holes are fully characterized by their masses and spins and are described by the Kerr metric. This theorem can be tested observationally by measuring (at least) three different multipole moments of the spacetimes of black holes. In this paper, we calculate the profiles of fluorescent iron lines emitted from the accretion flows around black hole candidates within a framework that allows us to perform the calculation as a function of its mass and spin as well as of a free parameter that measures potential deviations from the Kerr metric. We show that such deviations lead to line profiles that are significantly altered and may exhibit a modified flux ratio of the two peaks in their characteristic double-peaked shape. We also show that the disk inclination can be measured independently of the spin and the deviation parameter at low to intermediate inclination angles, as in the case of Kerr black holes. We estimate the precision that near-future X-ray missions such as Astro-H and ATHENA+ are required to achieve in order to resolve deviations from the Kerr metric in iron line profiles and show that constraints on such deviations will be strongest for rapidly spinning black holes. More generally, we show that measuring the line profile with a precision of {approx}5% at disk inclinations of 30 Degree-Sign or 60 Degree-Sign constrains the deviation parameter to order unity for values of the spin a {approx}> 0.5M.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Super-eddington accretion in the ultraluminous x-ray source NGC 1313 X-2: An ephemeral feast

We investigate the X-ray spectrum, variability, and the surrounding ionized bubble of NGC 1313 X-2 to explore the physics of super-Eddington accretion. Beyond the Eddington luminosity, the accretion disk of NGC 1313 X-2 is truncated at a large radius (∼50 times the innermost stable circular orbit), and displays the similar evolution track with both luminous Galactic black-hole and neutron star X-ray binaries (XRBs). In super-critical accretion, the speed of radiatively driven outflows from the inner disk is mildly relativistic. Such ultra-fast outflows would be overionized and might produce weak Fe K absorption lines, which may be detected by the coming X-ray mission Astro-H. If NGC 1313 X-2 is a massive stellar XRB, the high luminosity indicates that an ephemeral feast is held in the source. That is, the source must be accreting at a hyper-Eddington mass rate to give the super-Eddington emission over ∼10{sup 4}-10{sup 5} yr. The expansion of the surrounding bubble nebula with a velocity of ∼100 km s{sup –1} might indicate that it has existed over ∼10{sup 6} yr and is inflated by the radiatively driven outflows from the transient with a duty cycle of activity of ∼ a few percent. Alternatively, if the surrounding bubble nebula is produced by line-driven winds, less energy is required than the radiatively driven outflow scenario, and the radius of the Strömgren radius agrees with the nebula size. Our results are in favor of the line-driven winds scenario, which can avoid the conflict between the short accretion age and the apparently much longer bubble age inferred from the expansion velocity in the nebula.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Gas bulk motion in the Perseus Cluster measured with Suzaku

We present the results from Suzaku observations of the Perseus Cluster, which is relatively close, the brightest in the X-ray sky, and a relaxed object with a cool core. A number of exposures of central regions and offset pointing with the X-ray Imaging Spectrometer cover a region within radii of 20'-30'. The central data are used to evaluate the instrumental energy-scale calibration with accuracy confirmed to within around 300 km s{sup –1} by the spatial and temporal variation of the instruments. These deep and well-calibrated data are used to measure X-ray redshifts of the intracluster medium. A hint of gas bulk motion, with radial velocity of about –(150-300) km s{sup –1} relative to the main system, was found at 2'-4' (45-90 kpc) west of the cluster center, where an X-ray excess and a cold front were found previously. No other velocity structure was discovered. Over spatial scales of 50-100 kpc and within 200 kpc radii of the center, the gas-radial-velocity variation is below 300 km s{sup –1}, while over scales of 400 kpc within 600 kpc radii, the variation is below 600 km s{sup –1}. These X-ray redshift distributions are compared spatially with those of optical member galaxies for the first time in galaxy clusters. Based on X-ray line widths, gas turbulent velocities within these regions are also constrained within 1000-3000 km s{sup –1}. These results of gas dynamics in the core and larger scales in association with cluster merger activities are discussed, and the future potential of high-energy resolution spectroscopy with ASTRO-H is considered.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Detection of an unidentified emission line in the stacked X-ray spectrum of galaxy clusters

We detect a weak unidentified emission line at E = (3.55-3.57) ± 0.03 keV in a stacked XMM-Newton spectrum of 73 galaxy clusters spanning a redshift range 0.01-0.35. When the full sample is divided into three subsamples (Perseus, Centaurus+Ophiuchus+Coma, and all others), the line is seen at >3σ statistical significance in all three independent MOS spectra and the PN 'all others' spectrum. It is also detected in the Chandra spectra of the Perseus Cluster. However, it is very weak and located within 50-110 eV of several known lines. The detection is at the limit of the current instrument capabilities. We argue that there should be no atomic transitions in thermal plasma at this energy. An intriguing possibility is the decay of sterile neutrino, a long-sought dark matter particle candidate. Assuming that all dark matter is in sterile neutrinos with m{sub s} = 2E = 7.1 keV, our detection corresponds to a neutrino decay rate consistent with previous upper limits. However, based on the cluster masses and distances, the line in Perseus is much brighter than expected in this model, significantly deviating from other subsamples. This appears to be because of an anomalously bright line at E = 3.62 keV in Perseus, which could be an Ar XVII dielectronic recombination line, although its emissivity would have to be 30 times the expected value and physically difficult to understand. Another alternative is the above anomaly in the Ar line combined with the nearby 3.51 keV K line also exceeding expectation by a factor of 10-20. Confirmation with Astro-H will be critical to determine the nature of this new line.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Reverse and forward shock X-ray emission in an evolutionary model of supernova remnants undergoing efficient diffusive shock acceleration

We present new models for the forward and reverse shock thermal X-ray emission from core-collapse and Type Ia supernova remnants (SNRs) that include the efficient production of cosmic rays (CR) via nonlinear diffusive shock acceleration (DSA). Our CR-hydro-NEI code takes into account non-equilibrium ionization, hydrodynamic effects of efficient CR production on the SNR evolution, and collisional temperature equilibration among heavy ions and electrons in both the shocked supernova (SN) ejecta and the shocked circumstellar material. While X-ray emission is emphasized here, our code self-consistently determines both thermal and non-thermal broadband emission from radio to TeV energies. We include Doppler broadening of the spectral lines by thermal motions of the ions and by the remnant expansion. We study, in general terms, the roles that the ambient environment, progenitor models, temperature equilibration, and processes related to DSA have on the thermal and non-thermal spectra. The study of X-ray line emission from young SNRs is a powerful tool for determining specific SN elemental contributions and for providing critical information that helps to understand the type and energetics of the explosion, the composition of the ambient medium in which the SN exploded, and the ionization and dynamics of the hot plasma in the shocked SN ejecta and interstellar medium. With the approaching launch of the next-generation X-ray satellite Astro-H, observations of spectral lines with unprecedented high resolution will become a reality. Our self-consistent calculations of the X-ray spectra from various progenitors will help interpret future observations of SNRs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

HIGH ENERGY POLARIZATION OF BLAZARS: DETECTION PROSPECTS

Emission from blazar jets in the ultraviolet, optical, and infrared is polarized. If these low-energy photons were inverse-Compton scattered, the upscattered high-energy photons retain a fraction of the polarization. Current and future X-ray and gamma-ray polarimeters such as INTEGRAL-SPI, PoGOLITE, X-Calibur, Gamma-Ray Burst Polarimeter, GEMS-like missions, ASTRO-H, and POLARIX have the potential to discover polarized X-rays and gamma-rays from blazar jets for the first time. Detection of such polarization will open a qualitatively new window into high-energy blazar emission; actual measurements of polarization degree and angle will quantitatively test theories of jet emission mechanisms. We examine the detection prospects of blazars by these polarimetry missions using examples of 3C 279, PKS 1510-089, and 3C 454.3, bright sources with relatively high degrees of low-energy polarization. We conclude that while balloon polarimeters will be challenged to detect blazars within reasonable observational times (with X-Calibur offering the most promising prospects), space-based missions should detect the brightest blazars for polarization fractions down to a few percent. Typical flaring activity of blazars could boost the overall number of polarimetric detections by nearly a factor of five to six purely accounting for flux increase of the brightest of the comprehensive, all-sky, Fermi-LAT blazar distribution. The instantaneous increase in the number of detections is approximately a factor of two, assuming a duty cycle of 20% for every source. The detectability of particular blazars may be reduced if variations in the flux and polarization fraction are anticorrelated. Simultaneous use of variability and polarization trends could guide the selection of blazars for high-energy polarimetric observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗