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DOE OSTI2024

Embedding space approach to Lorentzian CFT amplitudes and causal spherical functions

Conformal field theory in a Minkowski setting is discussed in an embedding space approach, paying special attention to causality constraints for four-point amplitudes. The physics of dilatation and Lorentz boost is emphasized in specifying the noncompact maximal Abelian subgroup of S O ( d , 2 ) . Reduction of a conformal field theory four-point amplitudes as functions of cross ratios is shown to be equivalent to enforcing H bi-invariance, i.e., F ( h g h ′ ) = F ( g ) , with g ∈ S O ( d , 2 ) and H an appropriate subgroup. Causality is imposed by introducing appropriate semigroups. Causal zonal spherical functions are constructed, making contact with Minkowski conformal blocks introduced previously. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Agarwal, Pulkit (ORCID:0000000346581691)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reviving QFT in ( 2 + 1 )-dimensional de Sitter spacetime

We consider a conformally coupled scalar quantum field theory (QFT) on ( 2 + 1 )-dimensional static Einstein universe R × S 2 and write down the free theory Hilbert space. We explain that this theory is secretly a QFT in ( 2 + 1 )-dimensional de Sitter space because all the quantum observables experience “quantum revivals,” which naturally restricts the timelike R to the appropriate de Sitter time range. Our construction circumvents the causal obstruction to formulating QFT in de Sitter due to event horizons. There are not any in static Einstein. The “unitary gauge” description of the theory is realized by the zonal harmonics P ℓ ( n ^ · n ^ ′ ) . We verify that interactions with conformally invariant external sources are mediated only by these modes. Hence these modes comprise the complete basis of the “bulk” theory. When the theory is cut off in the UV, the basis dimension scales as the Bekenstein-Hawking formula. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

D’Amico, Guido (ORCID:0000000281831214)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Turbulence model reduction by deep learning

A defining problem of turbulence theory is to produce a predictive model for turbulent fluxes. These have profound implications for virtually all aspects of the turbulence dynamics. In magnetic confinement devices, drift-wave turbulence produces anomalous fluxes via cross-correlations between fluctuations. In this work, we introduce an alternative, data-driven method for parametrizing these fluxes. The method uses deep supervised learning to infer a reduced mean-field model from a set of numerical simulations. We apply the method to a simple drift-wave turbulence system and find a significant new effect which couples the particle flux to the local gradient of vorticity. Notably, here, this effect is much stronger than the oft-invoked shear suppression effect. We also recover the result via a simple calculation. The vorticity gradient effect tends to modulate the density profile. In addition, our method recovers a model for spontaneous zonal flow generation by negative viscosity, stabilized by nonlinear and hyperviscous terms. We highlight the important role of symmetry to implementation of the new method.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Importance of gyrokinetic exact Fokker-Planck collisions in fusion plasma turbulence

Gyrokinetic simulations of turbulence are fundamental to understanding and predicting particle and energy loss in magnetic fusion devices. Previous works have used model collision operators with approximate field-particle terms of unknown accuracy and/or have neglected collisional finite Larmor radius effects. This research moves beyond models to demonstrate important corrections using a gyrokinetic Fokker-Planck collision operator with the exact field-particle terms, in realistic simulations of turbulence in magnetically confined fusion plasmas. The exact operator shows significant corrections for temperature-gradient-driven trapped electron mode turbulence and zonal flow damping, and for microtearing modes in a Joint European Torus pedestal under ITER-like wall conditions. Analysis of the corrections using parameter scans motivates an accurate model which closely reproduces the exact results while reducing computational demands.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Wall modes and the transition to bulk convection in rotating Rayleigh-Bénard convection

We investigate states of rapidly rotating Rayleigh-Bénard convection in a cylindrical cell over a range of Rayleigh numbers 3 × 10 5 ≤ Ra ≤ 5 × 10 9 and Ekman numbers 10 − 6 ≤ Ek ≤ 10 − 4 for Prandtl number Pr = 0.8 and aspect ratios 1 / 5 ≤ Γ ≤ 5 using direct numerical simulations. We characterize, for perfectly insulating sidewall boundary conditions, the first transition to convection via wall mode instability and the nonlinear growth and instability of the resulting wall mode states, including a secondary transition to time dependence. We show how the radial structure of the vertical velocity u z and the temperature T is captured well by the linear eigenfunctions of the wall mode instability where the radial width of u z is δ u z ∼ Ek 1 / 3 r / H whereas δ T ∼ e − k r ( k is the wave number of a laterally infinite wall mode state). The disparity in spatial scales for Ek = 10 − 6 means that the heat transport is dominated by the radial structure of u z since T varies slowly over the radial scale δ u z . We further describe how the transition to a state of bulk convection is influenced by the presence of the wall mode states. We use temporal and spatial scales as measures of the local state of convection and the Nusselt number Nu as representative of global transport. Our results elucidate the evolution of the wall state of rotating convection and confirm that wall modes are strongly linked with the boundary zonal flow being the robust remnant of nonlinear wall mode states. We also show how the heat transport ( Nu ) contributions of wall modes and bulk modes are related and discuss approaches to disentangling their relative contributions. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of Zero-Frequency Fluctuations Generated by Coupling between Alfvén Modes in the JET Tokamak

We report the first experimental detection of a zero-frequency fluctuation that is pumped by an Alfvén mode in a magnetically confined plasma. Core-localized Alfvén modes of frequency inside the toroidicity-induced gap (and its harmonics) exhibit three-wave coupling interactions with a zero-frequency fluctuation. The observation of the zero-frequency fluctuation is consistent with theoretical and numerical predictions of zonal modes pumped by Alfvén modes, and is correlated with an increase in the deep core ion temperature, temperature gradient, confinement factor H 89,P , and a reduction in the main ion heat diffusivity. Despite the energetic particle transport induced by the Alfvén eigenmodes, the generation of a zero-frequency fluctuation that can suppress the turbulence leads to an overall improvement of confinement.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Semi-Supervised Disaggregation of Load Profiles at Transmission Buses with Significant Behind-the-Meter Solar Generations

It is of imperative interests for regional transmission organizations (RTOs) to effectively extract daily load profiles at transmission buses, which remains a gap in existing technology paradigm. This digest proposes an explicit yet efficient linear estimator, to disaggregate metered load profiles at buses with significant behind-the-meter (BTM) solar generations in a data driven manner. The proposed estimator is based on utility zonal load profiles and proxy solar irradiance profiles, which in reality is the aggregated waveform at each transmission bus and equivalent to the mix of summed load profiles minus actual BTM solar generation. To overcome technical challenges in the lack of “ground truth” and validate the performance of supervised learning algorithms, we propose semi-supervised mechanisms with parameter tuning, and leverage the unique characteristics of zero-crossing points in BTM solar peaking behaviors.

machine leaning, behind-the-meter, power grid anal↗

DOE OSTI2023

Factorization Machine Learning for Disaggregation of Transmission Load Profiles with High Penetration of Behind-the-Meter Solar

The ever-growing high penetration of ubiquitously distributed energy resources, especially behind-the-meter solar (BTM) generations, has significant impacts on nodal load (i.e., net injection) profiles and consequently caused imperative operational challenges to system operators such as regional transmission organizations (RTOs). Illustrated by real-world nodal data and examples at PJM Interconnection, this paper first discusses the application and necessity of effectively extracting daily nodal load profiles in a non-intrusive manner. More importantly, a novel bi-level architecture, including Factorization Machines (FM) learning procedure has been proposed to effectively disaggregate not only one node but every node in an RTO service territory. Specifically, FM leaning is adopted to capture the interconnections between related features to better utilize the correlation between buses in the same region and between a single bus and the zonal load. The proposed bi-level technique is numerically validated using real-world, minute-level, normalized, and anonymized nodal data at PJM service territory.

behind the meter solar, load disaggregation, load ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bilevel Nodal Behind-the-meter Solar Disaggregation Under Unexpected Extreme Weather Conditions

As the power grid undergoes significant paradigm shift due to the increasing penetration of renewable generation, the ever-growing installation of behind-the-meter (BTM) solar generation in the power grid also has a significant impact on nodal loads, posing challenges on transmission operators. Furthermore, increasing frequent and severe extreme weather events intertwine with ubiquitous BTM solar generations and have amplified the challenges of accurately model nodal load profiles, especially under the lack of ground-truth information for verification. To tackle these challenges, this paper introduces a bilevel model that utilizes year-long data (e.g., proxy solar, zonal load, and individual node load profiles) to disaggregate metered profiles into actual demand and BTM solar generation at each transmission node. The proxy solar not only scales the BTM solar generation of individual nodes but also create a compensation term for enhancing performance on days with unexpected extreme weather events. The proposed algorithm is validated with real-world PJM Interconnection data during unexpected events like the recent Winter Storm Elliott. For quantitative evaluations, a novel Score error is introduced, which is based on mean percentages and load scales and offers a universal assessment method suitable for all nodes and different data formats (e.g., normalized or raw values).

behind-the-meter solar, load disaggregations, load↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deep Factorization Machine Learning for Disaggregation of Transmission Load Profiles with High Penetration of Behind-The-Meter Solar

The ever-growing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs), especially behind-the-meter (BTM) solar generations, poses imperative operational challenges to system operators such as regional transmission organizations (RTOs). It is important for RTOs to effectively and accurately extract actual load profiles at the transmission level for a single node with significant BTM solar injection. This paper first illustrates the necessity of disaggregating the daily actual load profile of a single node. Furthermore, by segmenting nodes with selected timeseries features, nodes with significant BTM solar generation are identified. Lastly, a bi-level framework is proposed, comprising reference node disaggregation and DeepFM nodal disaggregation, aimed at disaggregating the nodal load profiles from which system operators require more information. By adopting a hybrid Deep Factorization Machine (DeepFM) model, the model achieve accurate results by extracting both linear and nonlinear relations between nodes in the same region and the zonal load and nodal load profile. To overcome the lack of ground truth, this paper segments the load profile into daytime, nighttime, and zero-crossing points and utilizes the latter two for evaluation purposes. The proposed disaggregation procedure is validated using real world, minute-level, normalized, and anonymized nodal data in the PJM service territory.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Experimental Evaluation of Geopolymer, Nano-Modified, and Neat Class H Cement by Using Diametrically Compressive Tests

Abstract Cement is the prime barrier material to maintain zonal isolation during wellbore life-cycle. Different types of the cement have different performances on sealability. The primary objective of this study is evaluation of three types of cement systems, neat Class H, nano-synthetic graphite, and rock-based geopolymer cements, on interfacial bond integrity. Diametrical compressive tests are used on casing–cement–formation systems. Cement performances are tested in a conventional configuration (Berea Sandstone). A universal testing system is utilized to analyze the relationship applied load–axial strain and the digital image correlation (DIC) technique is used to generate the strain field maps. Based on the relationship and DIC results, bond strengths in different cement systems are evaluated. Additionally, microscope images provide insight explanations of the bond from micro-view. Based on the experimental results, failures of all cases initiate and propagate from the casing–cement interface. Then, radial cracks develop through the formation. This is because the mechanical interlocking bonds are formed only at the cement–sandstone interface to enhance the bond strength. The comparison of geopolymer and nano-modified cements with the conventional cement (neat Class H) shows that the unconventional cements have a lower maximum load and higher axial strain before failure of the samples. It indicates that both the two kinds of cements are more ductile than conventional cement and can support more deformation before the initiation of cracks.

Energy & Fuels↗

DOE OSTI2024

Convolution Neural Network for Fault Identification in Distribution Feeder with High Penetration Solar PV

Identification and zonal classification of the faults is a decisive factor in the relay’s decision to trip or not. Different types of fault like three-phase, line-to-line-to-ground and single-line-to-ground can occur at various locations in the feeder. These faults are seen as the variation in the instantaneous values of three-phase voltages and currents, i.e., waveforms, that are measured at the relay location. The objective of this work is to develop a machine learning model that can identify a fault and classify it to various protection zones based on measured waveforms. In this work, a data-driven relay based on Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) is proposed for fault identification in distribution feeders with high penetration solar PV. The proposed CNN model takes local current and voltage waveforms as input and classify it into fault, no-fault or a capacitor switching. Further, the CNN also attempts to identify fault zones based on the images of waveforms. The overall testing accuracy of the trained model exceeds 95%.

Ramesh, Meghana↗

DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Predictability of Daily Southeast U.S. Precipitation Using Explainable Machine Learning

Abstract We investigate the predictability of the sign of daily southeastern U.S. (SEUS) precipitation anomalies associated with simultaneous predictors of large-scale climate variability using machine learning models. Models using index-based climate predictors and gridded fields of large-scale circulation as predictors are utilized. Logistic regression (LR) and fully connected neural networks using indices of climate phenomena as predictors produce neither accurate nor reliable predictions, indicating that the indices themselves are not good predictors. Using gridded fields as predictors, an LR and convolutional neural network (CNN) are more accurate than the index-based models. However, only the CNN can produce reliable predictions that can be used to identify forecasts of opportunity. Using explainable machine learning we identify which variables and grid points of the input fields are most relevant for confident and correct predictions in the CNN. Our results show that the local circulation is most important as represented by maximum relevance of 850-hPa geopotential heights and zonal winds to making skillful, high-probability predictions. Corresponding composite anomalies identify connections with El Niño–Southern Oscillation during winter and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and North Atlantic subtropical high during summer.

Pegion, Kathy↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Deep Learning Filter for the Intraseasonal Variability of the Tropics

Abstract This paper presents a novel application of convolutional neural network (CNN) models for filtering the intraseasonal variability of the tropical atmosphere. In this deep learning filter, two convolutional layers are applied sequentially in a supervised machine learning framework to extract the intraseasonal signal from the total daily anomalies. The CNN-based filter can be tailored for each field similarly to fast Fourier transform filtering methods. When applied to two different fields (zonal wind stress and outgoing longwave radiation), the index of agreement between the filtered signal obtained using the CNN-based filter and a conventional weight-based filter is between 95% and 99%. The advantage of the CNN-based filter over the conventional filters is its applicability to time series with the length comparable to the period of the signal being extracted. Significance Statement This study proposes a new method for discovering hidden connections in data representative of tropical atmosphere variability. The method makes use of an artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm that combines a mathematical operation known as convolution with a mathematical model built to reflect the behavior of the human brain known as artificial neural network. Our results show that the filtered data produced by the AI-based method are consistent with the results obtained using conventional mathematical algorithms. The advantage of the AI-based method is that it can be applied to cases for which the conventional methods have limitations, such as forecast (hindcast) data or real-time monitoring of tropical variability in the 20–100-day range.

Stan, Cristiana↗

DOE OSTI2023

Synoptic Typing of Multiduration, Heavy Precipitation Records in the Northeastern United States: 1895–2017

Much of the previous research on total and heavy precipitation trends across the northeastern United States (herein, the Northeast) used daily precipitation totals over relatively short periods of record, which do not capture the full range of climate variability and change. Less well understood are the characteristics of long-term changes and synoptic patterns in longer-duration heavy precipitation events across the Northeast. A multiduration (1, 2, 3, 7, 14, and 30 days), multi-return-interval (2, 5, 10, and 50 years) precipitation dataset was used to diagnose changes in various types of precipitation events across the Northeast from 1895 to 2017. Increasing trends were found in all duration and return-interval event combinations with the rarest, longest duration events increasing at faster rates than more-frequent, shorter-duration ones. Daily 850-hPa geopotential height patterns associated with precipitation events were extracted from rotated principal component analysis and k -means clustering analysis, which allowed for the main synoptic types present as well as their structure and evolution to be analyzed. The daily synoptic patterns thus identified were found to be similar across all durations and return intervals and included coastal low (Northeasters, tropical cyclones, and predecessor rain events), deep trough, East Coast trough, zonal, and high pressure patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Role of Multiscale Interaction in Tropical Cyclogenesis and Its Predictability in Near-Global Aquaplanet Cloud-Resolving Simulations

Tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) is a multiscale process that involves interactions between large-scale circulation and small-scale convection. A near-global aquaplanet cloud-resolving model (NGAqua) with 4-km horizontal grid spacing that produces tropical cyclones (TCs) is used to investigate TCG and its predictability. This study analyzes an ensemble of three 20-day NGAqua simulations, with initial white-noise perturbations of low-level humidity. TCs develop spontaneously from the northern edge of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), where large-scale flows and tropical convection provide necessary conditions for barotropic instability. Zonal bands of positive low-level absolute vorticity organize into cyclonic vortices, some of which develop into TCs. A new algorithm is developed to track the cyclonic vortices. A vortex-following framework analysis of the low-level vorticity budget shows that vertical stretching of absolute vorticity due to convective heating contributes positively to the vorticity spinup of the TCs. A case study and composite analyses suggest that sufficient humidity is key for convective development. TCG in these three NGAqua simulations undergoes the same series of interactions. The locations of cyclonic vortices are broadly predetermined by planetary-scale circulation and humidity patterns associated with ITCZ breakdown, which are predictable up to 10 days. Whether and when the cyclonic vortices become TCs depend on the somewhat more random feedback between convection and vorticity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Response of the Polar Vortex to Tropospheric Temperature Eddies in an Idealized General Circulation Model

Abstract A dry-core idealized general circulation model with a stratospheric polar vortex in the Northern Hemisphere is run with a combination of simplified topography and imposed tropospheric temperature perturbations, each located in the Northern Hemisphere with a zonal wavenumber of 1. The phase difference between the imposed temperature wave and the topography is varied to understand what effect this has on the occurrence of polar vortex displacements. Geometric moments are used to identify the centroid of the polar vortex for the purposes of classifying whether or not the polar vortex is displaced. Displacements of the polar vortex are a response to increased tropospheric wave activity. Compared to a model run with only topography, the likelihood of the polar vortex being displaced increases when the warm region is located west of the topography peak, and decreases when the cold region is west of the topography peak. This response from the polar vortex is due to the modulation of vertically propagating wave activity by the temperature forcing. When the southerly winds on the western side of the topographically forced anticyclone are collocated with warm- or cold-temperature forcing, the vertical wave activity flux in the troposphere becomes more positive or negative, respectively. This is in line with recent reanalysis studies that showed that anomalous warming west of the surface pressure high, in the climatological standing wave, precedes polar vortex disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Hindcast Approach to Diagnosing the Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue SST Bias in CESM1

An ensemble seasonal hindcast approach is used to investigate the development of the equatorial Pacific Ocean cold sea surface temperature (SST) bias and its characteristic annual cycle in the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1). In observations, eastern equatorial Pacific SSTs exhibit a warm phase during boreal spring and a cold phase during late boreal summer–autumn. The CESM1 climatology shows a cold bias during both warm and cold phases. In our hindcasts, the cold bias during the cold phase develops in less than 6 months, whereas the cold bias during the warm phase takes longer to emerge. The fast-developing cold-phase cold bias is associated with too-strong vertical advection and easterly wind stress over the eastern equatorial region. The antecedent boreal summer easterly wind anomalies also appear in atmosphere-only simulations, indicating that the errors are intrinsic to the atmosphere component. For the slower-developing warm-phase cold bias, we find that the too-cold SSTs over the equatorial region are associated with a slowly evolving upward displacement of subsurface ocean zonal currents and isotherms that can be traced to the ocean component.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗