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DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the Key Requirements for 450 GW of Renewable Capacity in India by 2030

In this policy brief, we assess the prerequisites for India to achieve 450 GW of solar and wind cumulative installed capacity by 2030. We examine requirements such as availability of land, new transmission buildout, financing and pace of deployment, as well as the impact on grid reliability and cost of generation. We also examine the impact of policies promoting domestic manufacturing. Deploying 307 GW of solar and 142 GW of wind capacity would use only about 1.25% of land that is categorized as barren or waste, which is equivalent to about 0.22% of the total land area in India. Because of the good solar resource across large swaths of India, the solar energy buildout—and thus the land use—potentially can be spread out. India would need about 280 GW of new interstate transmission capacity by 2030, a little over double the transmission expansion that has already been planned through 2025. However, most of the new transmission buildout is driven by the near doubling of electricity demand between 2020 and 2030. The total investment needed (in generation and storage resources) to realize this target is around USD 26.5 billion annually, which is 20% lower than the annual investment in India’s power sector across all generation resources between 2015 and 2019. We estimate that using domestically manufactured panels instead of imported panels may increase solar PPA prices by about 10%–15% in the medium term, but solar power would still be a cost-effective way to meet growing demand instead of building new fossil fuel-based power plants, because the price of electricity from solar plants has fallen below the variable cost of most existing coal units. To reach this target, India would need to build about 35–40 GW of solar and wind capacity every year in this decade. India’s power sector achieved a pace of capacity addition of 22 GW per year in the previous decade (including thermal and renewable). Policy and regulatory measures would be needed to increase the pace of deployment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Wind Energy Accomplishments and Year-End Performance Report: Fiscal Year 2023

As the United States' largest source of renewable energy, wind is already playing a vital role in the nation's shift to electricity generated from sustainable resources. Scientists, engineers, and analysts at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are propelling our country closer to this clean energy future with new efficient, reliable, and cost-competitive wind technologies and deployment strategies. In Fiscal Year 2023 (FY 2023), NREL received national acclaim for recent wind technology breakthroughs, applauded sustained decades of progress in wind energy research, and heralded new initiatives to support the next generation of wind development. This report and NREL's achievements of the last year set the stage for innovative research to come. Two NREL software innovations used to assess wind technology options were recognized with R&D 100 Awards. The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model helps planners, developers, and researchers calculate wind energy capacity, generation, and cost for specific facilities, fleets and scenarios. NREL's Simulation and Emulation for Advanced Systems validates transmission and distribution solutions to minimize implementation risks. Both of these tools can be applied to a range of renewable solutions to cut costs and improve the reliability of systems in even the most remote locations. The laboratory commemorated landmark anniversaries for wind energy research facilities and programs managed by NREL. The National Wind Technology Center (NWTC) celebrated 30 years as a world-class hub for renewable energy research. An important component of the NWTC on NREL's Flatirons Campus, the one-of-a-kind 7-megawatt (MW) Controllable Grid Interface wind energy research apparatus, turned 10 this year. The Collegiate Wind Competition completed its tenth annual competition in May 2023. Six years after the grand challenges in wind energy science were first compiled, NREL brought together more than 100 wind energy experts from 15 countries to revisit the field's most pressing research needs. Other key new research initiatives examined ways to simultaneously address the needs for skilled wind energy workers and equitable job opportunities. NREL released the first national-level report evaluating offshore wind industry workforce gaps and ways to build a large, diverse pool of job candidates. The lab also co-hosted the International Partnering Forum's Offshore Wind Workforce Summit as part of its ongoing efforts to address the special challenges of that industry sector. NREL research and development (R&D) for the DOE Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO) continues to build momentum in its efforts to combat climate change, create clean energy jobs, and promote energy justice. This report provides more detail on these top achievements and other accomplishments made by NREL and its partners during FY 2023 (between Oct. 1, 2022, and Sept. 30, 2023).

accomplishments↗

DOE OSTI2024

Electrical Fault and Power Quality Detection Algorithms and Customer-Owned DERs Monitoring with a Cyber Grid Guard System and DLT

In this study, the electrical fault and power quality detection algorithms and customer-owned DERs monitoring use cases were implemented, with a Cyber Grid Guard system and DLT. Electrical utilities continue to deploy more intelligent electronic devices (IEDs) inside and outside electrical substations, and are associated with customer-owned distributed energy resources (DERs). Data from these IEDs, such as power meters and protection relays, must be kept confidential and of high integrity. Blockchain technology has the potential to increase microgrid resilience by enhancing data sharing security. The growing use of IEDs and customer-owned renewable energy sources (DERs) may make it necessary to connect Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) with power system applications. We implemented the electrical faulted phase detection and power quality monitoring algorithms with a Cyber Grid Guard (CGG) system using DLT. In addition, the DERs (wind turbine farms) use case and protective relay cyber-event tests were assessed, by using the CGG system with DLT. In the experimental model, the testbed was created by using a real-time simulator and CGG system with power meters/ protective relays in the loop. The data collected from the CGG system and IEDs were compared with the same time stamp source. These results showed the successful assessment of protection, control and monitoring applications using a CGG system with DLT. In the future, power system applications for the ESGT with DERs and the CGG system will be based on executing smart contracts between electrical utilities and customer-owned DERs.

Piesciorovsky, Emilio↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessment and Coordination of DER Cybersecurity Standards

Distributed energy resources (DERs) are becoming increasingly important to the electric grid, including solar energy systems. However, DERs also introduce new cybersecurity risks, including those posed by cloud computing. Standards harmonization is essential for ensuring that DERs are secure and can be safely integrated into the grid. This panel will discuss cyber standards harmonization for solar security. The panel will feature experts from the S2G Program, National Labs and Industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Electrical substation grid testbed for DLT applications of electrical fault detection, power quality monitoring, DERs use cases and cyber-events

Electrical utilities continue to deploy more intelligent electronic devices (IEDs) inside and outside electrical substation, and are associated with customer-owned distributed energy resources (DERs). The integrity and confidentiality of data from these IEDs, like power meters and protective relays, is crucial. Blockchain technology could improve the resilience of microgrids by improving the security of data sharing. The penetration of customer-owned DERs (renewable energy sources) and the increasing deployment of IEDs can lead to integrate power system applications with Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT). In this study, we implemented the electrical faulted phase detection and power quality monitoring algorithms with a Cyber Grid Guard (CGG) system using DLT. In addition, the DERs (wind turbine farms) use case and protective relay cyber-event tests were assessed, by using the CGG system with DLT. In the experimental model, the testbed was created by using a real-time simulator and CGG system with power meters/ protective relays in-the-loop. The data collected from the CGG system and IEDs were compared with the same time stamp source. These results had shown the successful assessment of protection, control and monitoring applications using a CGG system with DLT. In the future, the ESGT with DERs and the CGG system will be used in other power system applications, based on implementing smart contracts between electrical utilities with customer-owned DERs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Grid Value of Ocean Current Energy in Florida

Ocean current energy technology has been proposed as a potential contributor to Florida's energy portfolio. There has been limited investigation of how this energy would be valued when integrated into the Florida electrical grid. This study assesses three future grid scenarios to evaluate the impact of adding zero-cost ocean current energy to each. The Resource Planning Model, a tool developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, is used to identify the least-cost generation mix through 2050, with and without ocean current energy. The first scenario is a base case and assumes existing policies in which the addition of ocean current energy does not retire fossil-based technologies but variable generation technologies. In the second scenario, solar and storage technologies are lower cost, and the addition of ocean current generation enables those technologies along with wind to retire existing natural gas units earlier. In the third scenario, which requires a 95% reduction in carbon emissions from 2020 levels by 2050, ocean current energy can play a role in decarbonization along with other variable generation technologies. This analysis is intended to inform stakeholders on the opportunity, potential challenges, and overall value to the grid of ocean current technology from a reliability and availability focused perspective.

capacity expansion model↗

DOE OSTI2025

Smart Contracts for Power Grid Applications Using the Advanced DLT Cyber Grid Guard Testbed

In this study is presented two power system applications with distributed ledger technology (DLT) and smart contracts (SC) that were assessed in a Cyber-Grid-Guard System (CGGS) advanced testbed, with protective relays, power meters, communication devices, DLT devices, synchronized time source, clock displays and real time simulator. This CGGS testbed was set in the Advanced Protection Lab, 252 lab space of the Grid Research Integration and Deployment Center (GRID- C), at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. In power grids, customer-owned distributed energy resources (DERs) are more frequent than in the past, and the numbers of points of interconnection (POI) with customer-owned DERs have increased. Disruptive operation from DERs presents a risk to grid operations, and protective relays located at the POI are used to isolate out-of-tolerance or poorly behaving of DERs. Ensuring the integrity of data from the relays at the POI, and DLT could enhance the security of the power grids. The first application is a SC to define and control the allowable total power factor (TPF) of the DER (wind farm) output, and the terms of the SC are implemented using DLT with a CGGS for a customer-owned DER. The TPF SC was implemented by the CGGS using DLT. The experimental model was performed with a real-time simulator using a CGGS and relay in-the-loop. The data collected from the CGGS were used to execute the TPF SC. The TPF limits were between +0.9 and +1.0, and the breakers’ operation in the POI was controlled by the relay using the SC. The events were collected from the real-time simulator, CGGS, and SEL 700GT relay to validate a successful application of the TPF SC using DLT. The second application is a SC to measure and control the allowable voltage service limits (VSL) by the CGGS using DLT. The tests were performed by using a real-time simulator, CGGS and relay in-the-loop. The data was collected from the CGGS that executed the SC. The main constraints were defined based on ANSI C84.1 service voltage limits, and the operation of the breakers in the POI. The events were collected from the CGGS, and SEL 700GT relay to assess a successful operation of the VSL SC using DLT.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Deep Reductions in Energy Storage Costs on Highly Reliable Wind and Solar Electricity Systems.

We use 36 years (1980-2015) of hourly weather data over the contiguous United States (CONUS) to assess the impact of low-cost energy storage on highly reliable electricity systems that use only variable renewable energy (VRE; wind and solar photovoltaics). Even assuming perfect transmission of wind and solar generation aggregated over CONUS, energy storage costs would need to decrease several hundred-fold from current costs (to ~$1/kWh) in fully VRE electricity systems to yield highly reliable electricity without extensive curtailment of VRE generation. The role of energy storage changes from high-cost storage competing with curtailment to fill short-term gaps between VRE generation and hourly demand to near-free storage serving as seasonal storage for VRE resources. Energy storage faces "double penalties" in VRE/storage systems: with increasing capacity, (1) the additional storage is used less frequently and (2) hourly electricity costs would become less volatile, thus reducing price arbitrage opportunities for the additional storage.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Resilience in an Evolving Electrical Grid

Fundamental shifts in the structure and generation profile of electrical grids are occurring amidst increased demand for resilience. These two simultaneous trends create the need for new planning and operational practices for modern grids that account for the compounding uncertainties inherent in both resilience assessment and increasing contribution of variable inverter-based renewable energy sources. This work reviews the research work addressing the changing generation profile, state-of-the-art practices to address resilience, and research works at the intersection of these two topics in regards to electrical grids. The contribution of this work is to highlight the ongoing research in power system resilience and integration of variable inverter-based renewable energy sources in electrical grids, and to identify areas of current and further study at this intersection. Areas of research identified at this intersection include cyber-physical analysis of solar, wind, and distributed energy resources, microgrids, network evolution and observability, substation automation and self-healing, and probabilistic planning and operation methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Operational-based annual energy production uncertainty: are its components actually uncorrelated?

Calculations of annual energy production (AEP) from a wind power plant – whether based on preconstruction or operational data – are critical for wind plant financial transactions. The uncertainty in the AEP calculation is especially important in quantifying risk and is a key factor in determining financing terms. A popular industry practice is to assume that different uncertainty components within an AEP calculation are uncorrelated and can therefore be combined as the sum of their squares. We assess the practical validity of this assumption for operational-based uncertainty by performing operational AEP estimates for more than 470 wind plants in the United States, mostly in simple terrain. We apply a Monte Carlo approach to quantify uncertainty in five categories: revenue meter data, wind speed data, regression relationship between density-corrected wind speed (from reanalysis data) and measured wind power, length of long-term-correction data set, and future interannual variability. We identify correlations between categories by comparing the results across all 470 wind plants. We observe a positive correlation between interannual variability and the linearized long-term correction; a negative correlation between wind resource interannual variability and linear regression; and a positive correlation between reference wind speed uncertainty and linear regression. Then, we contrast total operational AEP uncertainty values calculated by omitting and considering correlations between the uncertainty components. We quantify that ignoring these correlations leads to an underestimation of total AEP uncertainty of, on average, 0.1% and as large as 0.5% for specific sites. Although these are not large increases, these would still impact wind plant financing rates; further, we expect these values to increase for wind plants in complex terrain. Based on these results, we conclude that correlations between the identified uncertainty components should be considered when computing the total AEP uncertainty.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2022

Arizona Water Resources Ii: Utilizing Aerial Imagery and Nasa Earth Observations to Assess Pinyon-Juniper Tree Mortality in Flagstaff, AZ

Pinyon-juniper woodlands (PJW) provide critical and resilient habitat for the local mammal and small bird species of Arizona's northern xeric environment. Drought in Arizona has been persistent for many decades, yet in 2021 PJW experienced a mass tree mortality event at the Wupatki National Monument (WNM) and in other areas across the American Southwest. Previously, researchers at the National Park Service (NPS) and the team from the NASA DEVELOP National Program attempted to quantify the extent of mortality in Northern Arizona between 2015 and 2021 using high resolution National Agricultural Imagery Program (NAIP) aerial photographs. This project aimed to improve the previous term’s methodology and expanded the comparison of the post-mortality event in 2021 to include tree cover assessments for 2017 and 2019. In this iteration, the team utilized NAIP imagery in conjunction with Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools (LANDFIRE) to calculate the total difference in PJW mortality using an unsupervised classification model trained from multi-date Modified Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (MSAVI) and the Visible Atmospherically Resistant Index (VARI) data for the study area. The research also assessed correlations between tree mortality and environmental factors using Western Land Data Assimilation System (WLDAS) modelled climate data. Average PJW mortality from 2015 to 2021 was 21.63% including 19.8% in WNM with the vast majority of dieback occurring between 2019 and 2021. The correlations were weak with the most correlated variables being bare soil evaporation (0.15), rainfall (0.14), groundwater storage (0.13), and wind speed (0.12), perhaps indicating drought as a likely driver of PJW mortality.

pinyon-juniper woodlands↗

NASA NTRS2005

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Science Research for Energy Management: Overview of Energy Issues and an Assessment of the Potential for Application of NASA Earth Science Research - Part 1

Effective management of energy resources is critical for the U.S. economy, the environment, and, more broadly, for sustainable development and alleviating poverty worldwide. The scope of energy management is broad, ranging from energy production and end use to emissions monitoring and mitigation and long-term planning. Given the extensive NASA Earth science research on energy and related weather and climate-related parameters, and rapidly advancing energy technologies and applications, there is great potential for increased application of NASA Earth science research to selected energy management issues and decision support tools. The NASA Energy Management Program Element is already involved in a number of projects applying NASA Earth science research to energy management issues, with a focus on solar and wind renewable energy and developing interests in energy modeling, short-term load forecasting, energy efficient building design, and biomass production.

Atmospheric models↗

NASA NTRS2020

Antarctic Meteorites: A Statistical Look at a Uniquely Valuable Resource

As of the end of the 2018-19 field season, the U.S. Antarctic meteorite program has surpassed 23,000 meteorites collected. The U.S. collection is valuable in that it is classified in its entirety. The systematic methods employed to collect the meteorites have provided meteorites of more than 40 types, many of which are the first of their type ever recognized. One of the early drivers for consistent and methodical characterization of the entire U.S. Antarctic collection was to allow statistical comparisons. Early statistical assessments of the U.S. Antarctic collection examined mass distributions and the relative frequency of meteorite types as well as comparisons to a defined set of modern falls. Using these statistics argued that the flux of H chondrites changed over time used model size distributions to deconstruct the contribution of wind movement, meteorite supply and search losses to the Antarctic collection. Mass-based statistics and size distribution comparisons were examined by investigated various aspects of the statistics, including comparison with modern falls/Saharan finds. Also discuss geospatial statistics provides a comprehensive overview of the statistics of the Antarctic collections for the first 35 seasons of U.S. collection by ANSMET. Here we build upon that assessment and that from.

Corrigan, C. M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

2021 Summer Resource Adequacy in the ERCOT Region

This report is an update to the NETL report on the same topic that examined the potential system performance of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system during the summer of 2020. Anticipated reserve margins in ERCOT have risen year-over-year from the 10.7 percent reported in ERCOT’s Final Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) for Summer 2020 to 15.7 percent for Summer 2021 in ERCOT’s Capacity, Demand and Reserves [CDR] report published in December 2020 and 2021 Summer Preliminary SARA published in March 2021. Using data from ERCOT’s 2021 Summer SARA, CDR, and historical performance data, six economic dispatch scenarios using PROMOD were developed to assess the risk to ERCOT of a load shedding event for Summer 2021. The results suggest that ERCOT could make it through the summer season without a loss of load event, as long as the weather remains normal. However, through a combination of scenarios, including increased demand, increased forced outages, and low wind output, ERCOT is likely to find itself operating in emergency conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Decarbonization and technology cost drivers: considerations for potential future thermoelectric water use in the power sector

The power sector is currently undergoing significant changes, driven by a combination of factors, including decarbonization and technology innovation. This study aims to assess implications of these drivers on U.S. power sector technology futures and the associated water and environmental implications for cooling thermoelectric power plants. Specifically, we evaluate four decarbonization scenarios for the contiguous United States that vary in assumptions concerning demand growth and technology costs, with technology costs driving alternative outcomes that prioritize either technologies that require low amounts of water (such as wind, solar, and battery) or high amounts of water (such as nuclear and carbon capture and storage). These scenarios are executed in a power sector capacity expansion model and compared to two reference scenarios that assume status quo with policy and cost drivers. Our analysis indicates that future U.S. thermoelectric water withdrawals could decrease by 25%–60%, but water consumption could more than triple in some scenarios. These changes are driven by a combination of retirement of some power facilities, shifts in cooling technologies, and new technology deployment. The water use patterns vary across the United States, with the eastern regions demonstrating a lot more variability in water consumption across scenarios than western regions. However, local concerns can influence these possible investments, since increased water consumption can exacerbate water scarcity, leading to conflicts among competing users and affecting regional social, environmental, and economic dynamics. Future work should consider possible costs associated with alternate water sources, as well as improve the representation of water constraints within simulations. Inclusion of extreme events and alternate modeling platforms (e.g. production cost modeling and resource adequacy) may also be warranted to further stress test the robustness of these possible technology futures. Such assessments will be critical for ensuring decarbonization and other infrastructure-oriented investments lead to a reliable and resilient power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Pala Energy Options Analysis (Final Report)

The Pala Energy Options Project scope focused on assessing electric and thermal energy related options for the Pala Band of Mission Indians. Although the assessment also considered options for transportation fuels – including potential for electrification – and other energy uses, initial reviews with PED staff indicated that the most practical and substantial options likely would involve serving current building electric and thermal energy resources and uses. Assessment scope varies by specific options considered; some merited in-depth assessment for immediate action to initiate or advance implementation, while higher level assessments were more appropriate for options that would take longer to implement and would require updated in-depth assessments during project planning and design phases. The primary objectives of the Project were to 1) identify energy resources/loads, 2) assess energy needs and exports, 3) investigate and evaluate supply-side and demand side energy options, and 4) select and prioritize options in an implementation plan.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

A novel approach for large-scale wind energy potential assessment

Increasing wind energy generation is central to grid decarbonization, yet methods to estimate wind energy potential are not standardized, leading to inconsistencies and even skewed results. This study aims to improve the fidelity of wind energy potential estimates through an approach that integrates geospatial analysis and machine learning (i.e., Gaussian process regression). We demonstrate this approach to assess the spatial distribution of wind energy capacity potential in the Contiguous United States (CONUS). We find that the capacity-based power density ranges from 1.70 MW/km2 (25th percentile) to 3.88 MW/km2 (75th percentile) for existing wind farms in the CONUS. The value is lower in agricultural areas (2.73 ± 0.02 MW/km2, mean ± 95 % confidence interval) and higher in other land cover types (3.30 ± 0.03 MW/km2). Notably, advancements in turbine manufacturing could reduce power density in areas with lower wind speeds by adopting low specific-power turbines, but improve power density in areas with higher wind speeds (>8.35 m/s at 120m above the ground), highlighting opportunities for repowering existing wind farms. Wind energy potential is shaped by wind resource quality and is regionally characterized by land cover and physical conditions, revealing significant capacity potential in the Great Plains and Upper Texas. The results indicate that areas previously identified as hot spots using existing approaches (e.g., the west of the Rocky Mountains) may have a limited capacity potential due to low wind resource quality. Improvements in methodology and capacity potential estimates in this study could serve as a new basis for future energy systems analysis and planning.

Dai, Tao↗

DOE OSTI2020

2019 Nevada National Security Site Environmental Report Attachment A: Site Description

This attachment expands on the general description of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) presented in the Introduction to the Nevada National Security Site Environmental Report 2019. Included are subsections that summarize the site’s geological, hydrological, climatological, and ecological settings and the cultural resources of the NNSS. The subsections are meant to aid the reader in understanding the complex physical and biological environment of the NNSS. An adequate knowledge of the site’s environment is necessary to assess the environmental impacts of new projects, design and implement environmental monitoring activities for current site operations, and assess the impacts of site operations on the public residing in the vicinity of the NNSS. The NNSS environment contributes to several key features of the site that afford protection to the inhabitants of adjacent areas from potential exposure to radioactivity or other contaminants resulting from NNSS operations. These key features include the general remote location of the NNSS, restricted access, extended wind transport times, the great depths to slow-moving groundwater, little or no surface water, and low population density. This attachment complements the annual summary of monitoring program activities and dose assessments presented in the main body of this report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗