Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “unpredictability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15

Downbursts and microbursts - An aviation hazard

Downburst and microburst phenomena occurring since 1975 are studied, based on meteorological analyses of aircraft accidents, aerial surveys of wind effects left behind downbursts, and studies of sub-mesoscale wind systems. It is concluded that microbursts beneath small, air mass thunderstorms are unpredictable in terms of weather forecast. Most aircraft incidents, however, were found to have occurred in the summer months, June through August. An intense microburst could produce 150 mph horizontal winds as well as 60 fps downflows at the tree-top level. The largest contributing factor to aircraft difficulties seemed to be a combination of the headwind decrease and the downflow. Anemometers and/or pressure sensors placed near runways were found effective for detecting gust fronts, but not for detecting downbursts. It is recommended that new detection systems placed on the ground or airborne, be developed, and that pilots be trained for simulated landing and go-around through microbursts.

Fujita, T. T.↗

Preflight reentry heat transfer analysis of Space Shuttle

Preflight predictions of the structural temperature distributions during entry are compared with data from the initial Shuttle flight. Finite element thermal analysis programming was used to model the heat flow on Shuttle structures and actual gas properties of air were employed in the analyses of aerodynamic heating. Laminar, separated, and turbulent heat fluxes were calculated for varying locations on the craft using velocity-attitude and angle-of-attack projections taken from the nominal STS-1 trajectory. Temperature time histories of the first flight are compared with laminar and turbulent flow assumptions and an unpredicted rapid cooling 1800 sec into entry is credited to inaccurate assumptions of structural heat dissipative properties or flow conditions in that time phase of the flight; additional discrepancies in descriptions of heating of the upper fuselage are attributed to a lack of knowledge of the complex flow patterns existing over that area of the Shuttle body.

Ko, W. L.↗

Solar flares, proton showers, and the Space Shuttle

Attention is given the hazards posed to Space Shuttle crews by energetic proton radiation from inherently unpredictable solar flares, such as that of April 10-13, 1981, which was experienced by the Space Shuttle Columbia. The most energetic protons from this flare reached the earth's atmosphere an hour after flare onset, and would have posed a potentially lethal threat to astronauts engaged in extravehicular activity in a polar or geosynchronous orbit rather than the low-latitude, low-altitude orbit of this mission. It is shown that proton-producing flares are associated with energization in shocks, many of which are driven by coronal mass ejections. Insights gained from the Solar Maximum Year programs allow reconsideration of proton shower forecasting, which will be essential in the prediction of the weather that Space Shuttle astronauts will encounter during extravehicular activities.

Rust, D. M.↗

An initial look at the supersonic aerodynamics of twin-fuselage aircraft concepts

Results of two studies into the supersonic aerodynamics of twin-fuselage aircraft configurations are summarized. In the first study, a set of experimental data was obtained on a simple rectangular-wing twin-fuselage wind-tunnel model; this data was then used to evaluate prediction methods, assess favorable interference effects, and identify any unexpected or unpredictable aerodynamic phenomena. Results are presented which show that significant reductions in wave drag are possible through optimum body positioning and that existing aerodynamic prediction methods are adequate for making preliminary aerodynamic estimates. Several configuration concepts were theoretically explored in the second study, and results are presented which indicate the sensitivity of the twin-fuselage concept to various methods of integrating the aircraft components.

Wood, R. M.↗

Some historical trends in the research and development of aircraft

A survey of some trends in aircraft design was made in an effort to determine the relation between research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT and E) and aircraft mission capability, requirements, and objectives. Driving forces in the history of aircraft include the quest for speed which involved design concepts incorporating jet propulsion systems and low drag features. The study of high speed design concepts promoted new experimental and analytical research techniques. These research techniques, in turn, have lead to concepts offering new performance potential. Design trends were directed toward increased speed, efficiency, productivity, and safety. Generally speaking, the research and development effort has been evolutionary in nature and, with the exception of the transition to supersonic flight, little has occurred since the origin of flight that has drastically changed the basic design fundamentals of aircraft. However, this does not preclude the possibility of dramatic changes in the future since the products of research are frequently unpredictable. Advances should be expected and sought in improved aerodynamics (reduced drag, enhanced lift, flow field exploitation); propulsion (improved engine cycles, multimode engines, alternate fuels, alternate power sources); structures (new materials, manufacturing techniques); all with a view toward increased efficiency and utility.

Spearman, M. L.↗

Elimination of a discrete frequency acoustical phenomenon associated with the Space Shuttle main engine oxidizer valve-duct system

In the development of the Space Shuttle Main Engines, various unpredictable dynamical phenomena were experienced which resulted in engine shutdown or failures, e.g., fires. One such dynamical phenomenon consisted of an acoustical buzz at 7200 Hz in the vicinity of the main oxidizer valve. The method of isolating the buzz phenomenon, identifying the mechanism, and developing a fix to eliminate the buzz is presented together with supporting data. These data, i.e., fluctuating pressure and acceleration data, were obtained from hot firing engine tests and from liquid nitrogen flow simulation tests conducted at Marshall Space Flight Center.

Schutzenhofer, L. A.↗

Lateral-directional stability investigation of the space shuttle orbiter at Mach 6

Lateral-directional aerodynamic data and oil-flow visualization results are pesented from four tests (conducted in two facilities using three models) which were designed to verify the hypersonic aerodynamics of the Space Shuttle orbiter at M=6. Comparisons of measured lateral-directional stability data and oil-flow results between the tests show excellent agreement, especially considering the nonuniform, unpredictable flow which occurs in the vicinity of the vertical tail. Results ere shown to be sensitive to Reynolds number with the higher Reynolds number cases producing more stable values and also showing good agreement with flight values. The results also show that the effects of Reynolds number, angle of attack, and angle of sideslip on the lateral-directional stability of future entry configuration should be carefully assessed for non-linearities.

Calloway, R. L.↗

A comparison of radiation damage in liner ICs from cobalt-60 gamma rays and 2.2-MeV electrons

The total ionizing dose response of fourteen IC types from eight manufacturers was measured using Co-60 gamma rays and 2.2-MeV electrons for exposure levels of 100 to 20,000 Gy(Si). Key parameter measurements were made and compared for each device type. The data show that a Co-60 source is not a suitable simulation source for some systems because of the generally more damaging nature of electrons as well as the unpredictable nature of the individual device response to the two types of radiations used here.

Gauthier, M. K.↗

A comparison of radiation damage in linear ICs from Cobalt-60 gamma rays and 2.2 MeV electrons

The total ionizing dose response of fourteen IC types from eight manufacturers have been measured using Co-60 gamma rays and 2.2 MeV electrons for exposure levels of 100 to 20,000 Gy(Si). Key parameter measurements were made and compared for each device type. The data show that a Co-60 source may not be a suitable simulation source for some systems, because of the generally more damaging nature of electrons as well as the unpredictable nature of the individual device response to the two types of radiations used here.

Gauthier, M. K.↗

Initialization of mesoscale models - The possible impact of remotely sensed data

Little or no improvement appears to have been achieved in mesoscale numerical prediction. This has been blamed on inherent unpredictability, insufficient spatial resolution, inadequate parameterization of important physical processes, and errors in the numerical discretization of the governing hydrodynamic equations. Attention is presently given to the more fundamental difficulty of forecasting when present conditions are not known with sufficient accuracy, and to the matching of remotely sensed sounding-capability satellite and all-weather Doppler radar data with mesoscale numerical models. This matching is not straightforward; simple and variational forms of four-dimensional assimilation, and Kalman filtering, are suggested approaches but their practical testing remains to be accomplished. The most severe problem faced is that of the temperature and humidity profiles' vertical resolution.

Gal-Chen, T.↗

Postinstability models in elasticity

It is demonstrated that the instability caused by the failure of hyperbolicity in elasticity and associated with the problem of unpredictability in classical mechanics expresses the incompleteness of the original model of an elastic medium. The instability as well as the ill-posedness of the Cauchy problem are eliminated by reformulating the original model.

Zak, M.↗

The Accuracy of Radio Interferometric Measurements of Earth Rotation

The accuracy of very long base interferometry earth rotation (UT1) measurements is examined by intercomparing TEMPO and POLARIS data for 1982 and the first half of 1983. None of these data are simultaneous, and so a proper intercomparison requires accounting for the scatter introduced by the rapid, unpredictable, UT1 variations driven by exchanges of angular momentum with the atmosphere. A statistical model of these variations, based on meteorological estimates of the Atmospheric Angular Momentum is derived, and the optimal linear (Kalman) smoother for this model is constructed. The scatter between smoothed and independent raw data is consistent with the residual formal errors, which do not depend upon the actual scatter of the UT1 data. This represents the first time that an accurate prediction of the scatter between UT1 data sets were possible.

Eubanks, T. M.↗

Determination of atmospheric density using a space-launched projectile

A method is proposed that provides advance information about unpredictable atmospheric density dispersions that must be accommodated during random operations of aeroassisted-orbital-transfer vehicles (AOTVs). The principal feature is that a test or 'scout' projectile precedes the AOTV through the same region of the atmosphere as that of the predicted transatmospheric flight trajectory. The atmospheric density structure is determined from the vehicle's aerodynamic deceleration characteristics by on-board or ground-based tracking equipment. The time lag between passage of the projectile and the AOTV can be adjusted to only that time necessary to implement required guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) corrections. The various strategies available to control the projectile's flight characteristics are analyzed in detail. The results are correlated with aerothermodynamic heating and materials requirements to ensure the survival of the projectile and, consequently, the capability of the AOTV to navigate a variable upper atmosphere within specified limits.

Menees, G. P.↗

Energy supply processes for magnetospheric substorms and solar flares - Tippy bucket model or pitcher model?

In the past, both magnetospheric substorms and solar flares have almost exclusively been discussed in terms of explosive magnetic reconnection. Such a model may conceptually be illustrated by the so-called 'tippy-bucket model', which causes sudden unloading processes, namely a sudden (catastrophic, stochastic, and unpredictable) conversion of stored magnetic energy. However, recent observations indicate that magnetospheric substorms can be understood as a result of a directly driven process which can conceptually be illustrated by the 'pitcher model' in which the output rate varies in harmony with the input rate. It is also possible that solar flare phenomena are directly driven by a photospheric dynamo. Thus, explosive magnetic reconnection may simply be an unworkable hypothesis and may not be a puzzle to be solved as the primary energy supply process for magnetospheric substorms and solar flares.

Akasofu, S.-I.↗

A water-vapor radiometer error model

The water-vapor radiometer (WVR) is used to calibrate unpredictable delays in the wet component of the troposphere in geodetic microwave techniques such as very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) and Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking. Based on experience with Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) instruments, the current level of accuracy in wet-troposphere calibration limits the accuracy of local vertical measurements to 5-10 cm. The goal for the near future is 1-3 cm. Although the WVR is currently the best calibration method, many instruments are prone to systematic error. In this paper, a treatment of WVR data is proposed and evaluated. This treatment reduces the effect of WVR systematic errors by estimating parameters that specify an assumed functional form for the error. The assumed form of the treatment is evaluated by comparing the results of two similar WVR's operating near each other. Finally, the observability of the error parameters is estimated by covariance analysis.

Beckman, B.↗

Irregularities in the secular variation and geodynamic implications; Proceedings of the Session, Cincinnati, OH, May 17, 1984

Consideration is given to: variations in the Gauss coefficients of the geomagnetic potential over the last several hundred years; eccentric geomagnetic dipole drift; and evidence for geomagnetic jerks from 1931 to 1971. Among other topics discussed are: models of the geomagnetic field in western Europe from 1960 to 1980; the external and internal parts of the geomagnetic jerk of 1970; secular variation of the magnetic mean energy density at the source layer depth; and motions at the core surface in the geostrophic approximation. Consideration is also given to: the unpredictability of geomagnetic secular variation; the use of short-term core-mantle coupling and geomagnetic variation impulses as Lagrangian tracers of core motions; and a comparison of two sequential geomagnetic polarity transitions in the upper Olduvai and the lower Jarmillio in the Southern Hemisphere.

Taylor, P.↗

Dynamic remapping decisions in multi-phase parallel computations

The effectiveness of any given mapping of workload to processors in a parallel system is dependent on the stochastic behavior of the workload. Program behavior is often characterized by a sequence of phases, with phase changes occurring unpredictably. During a phase, the behavior is fairly stable, but may become quite different during the next phase. Thus a workload assignment generated for one phase may hinder performance during the next phase. We consider the problem of deciding whether to remap a paralled computation in the face of uncertainty in remapping's utility. Fundamentally, it is necessary to balance the expected remapping performance gain against the delay cost of remapping. This paper treats this problem formally by constructing a probabilistic model of a computation with at most two phases. We use stochastic dynamic programming to show that the remapping decision policy which minimizes the expected running time of the computation has an extremely simple structure: the optimal decision at any step is followed by comparing the probability of remapping gain against a threshold. This theoretical result stresses the importance of detecting a phase change, and assessing the possibility of gain from remapping. We also empirically study the sensitivity of optimal performance to imprecise decision threshold. Under a wide range of model parameter values, we find nearly optimal performance if remapping is chosen simply when the gain probability is high. These results strongly suggest that except in extreme cases, the remapping decision problem is essentially that of dynamically determining whether gain can be achieved by remapping after a phase change; precise quantification of the decision model parameters is not necessary.

Nicol, D. M.↗

Middle atmosphere density and models

The 80 to 130 km altitude region is our old ignorosphere, the region of the atmosphere that no one seems to be interested in and yet the critical region for shuttle entry and atmospheric braking. Comparison between the Air Force reference atmosphere and Shuttle Inertial Measurement Units data shows large fluctuations at high latitudes. New data sources are available now, such as the Arecibo and Millstone Hill ionospheric scatter radars. In the 20 to 80 km altitude range there is a reasonable quantity of data on the mean atmosphere, however, infomation on diurnal variability is needed. In the 20 to 80 km altitude range data is needed to identify systematic variations and models for the regions are preliminary. Unpredictable variations are observed: turbulence, storm effects, gravity waves.

Champion, K.↗