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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2022

How Well do Multisatellite Products Capture the Space-Time Dynamics of Precipitation? Part II: Building an Error Model Through Spectral System Identification

Satellite precipitation products, as all quantitative estimates, come with some inherent degree of uncertainty. To associate a quantitative value of the uncertainty to each individual estimate, error modeling is necessary. Most of the error models proposed so far compute the uncertainty as a function of precipitation intensity only, and only at one specific spatio-temporal scale. We propose a spectral error model which accounts for the neighboring space-time dynamics of precipitation into the uncertainty quantification. Systematic distortions of the precipitation signal and random errors are characterized distinctively in every frequency-wavenumber band in the Fourier domain, to accurately characterize error across scales. The systematic distortions are represented as a deterministic space-time linear filtering term. The random errors are represented as a non-stationary additive noise. The spectral error model is applied to the IMERG multi satellite precipitation product and its parameters are estimated empirically through a system identification approach using the GV-MRMS gauge-radar measurements as reference (“truth”) over the eastern United States. The filtering term is found to be essentially low-pass. While traditional error models attribute most of the error variance to random errors, it is found here that the systematic filtering term explains 48% of the error variance at the native resolution of IMERG. This fact confirms that, at high resolution, filtering effects in satellite precipitation products cannot be ignored, and that the error cannot be represented as a purely random additive or multiplicative term. An important consequence is that precipitation estimates derived from totally different sources shall not be expected to automatically have statistically independent errors.

Precipitation↗
NASA NTRS2023

Ocean Carbon From Space: Current Status and Priorities for the Next Decade

The ocean plays a central role in modulating the Earth’s carbon cycle. Monitoring how the ocean carbon cycle is changing is fundamental to managing climate change. Satellite remote sensing is currently our best tool for viewing the ocean surface globally and systematically, at high spatial and temporal resolutions, and the past few decades have seen an exponential growth in studies utilising satellite data for ocean carbon research. Satellite-based observations must be combined with in-situ observations and models, to obtain a comprehensive view of ocean carbon pools and fluxes. To help prioritise future research in this area, a workshop was organised that assembled leading experts working on the topic, from around the world, including remote-sensing scientists, field scientists and modellers, with the goal to articulate a collective view of the current status of ocean carbon research, identify gaps in knowledge, and formulate a scientific roadmap for the next decade, with an emphasis on evaluating where satellite remote sensing may contribute. A total of 449 scientists and stakeholders participated (with balanced gender representation), from North and South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania. Sessions targeted both inorganic and organic pools of carbon in the ocean, in both dissolved and particulate form, as well as major fluxes of carbon between reservoirs (e.g., primary production) and at interfaces (e.g., air-sea and land–ocean). Extreme events, blue carbon and carbon budgeting were also key topics discussed. Emerging priorities identified include: expanding the networks and quality of in-situ observations; improved satellite retrievals; improved uncertainty quantification; improved understanding of vertical distributions; integration with models; improved techniques to bridge spatial and temporal scales of the different data sources; and improved fundamental understanding of the ocean carbon cycle, and of the interactions among pools of carbon and light. We also report on priorities for the specific pools and fluxes studied, and highlight issues and concerns that arose during discussions, such as the need to consider the environmental impact of satellites or space activities; the role satellites can play in monitoring ocean carbon dioxide removal approaches; economic valuation of the satellite based information; to consider how satellites can contribute to monitoring cycles of other important climatically-relevant compounds and elements; to promote diversity and inclusivity in ocean carbon research; to bring together communities working on different aspects of planetary carbon; maximising use of international bodies; to follow an open science approach; to explore new and innovative ways to remotely monitor ocean carbon; and to harness quantum computing. Overall, this paper provides a comprehensive scientific roadmap for the next decade on how satellite remote sensing could help monitor the ocean carbon cycle, and its links to the other domains, such as terrestrial and atmosphere.

oceanography↗
NASA NTRS2023

Modeling and Simulation of a Parallel Hybrid Electric Regional Aircraft for the Electrified Powertrain Flight Demonstration (EPFD) Program

This paper presents a parametric modeling and integrated aircraft sizing and synthesis approach for a charge depleting parallel hybrid electric architecture. The developed models are integrated within the baseline thin-haul and regional aircraft. In addition to the physical architecture, different modes of operation enabled by propulsion system electrification are also modeled parametrically. The modes of operation presented in this paper are the peak power shaving, climb power electric boost, in-flight battery recharging, and electric taxi. The sizing of the powertrain and the aircraft are performed within the multidisciplinary analysis and optimization environment, E-PASS. The consideration of the physical system and its operation together provides a holistic approach where the propulsion system and the airframe are designed under an optimized power and energy management strategy. The parametric nature of the work enables the design space exploration for electrification and lays the groundwork for future technology projection and uncertainty quantification studies. The developed capability is generic and can be applied on other aircraft classes. The work is done as part of the Electrified Powertrain Flight Demonstration program.

electrified powertrain flight demonstration↗
NASA NTRS2022

MLtool Python Code

Machine Learning (ML) is a subfield of Artificial Intelligence that gives computers the ability to learn from past data without being explicitly programmed. The predictive capabilities of ML models have already been used to facilitate several scientific breakthroughs. However, the practical application of ML is often limited due to the gaps in technical knowledge of its users. The common issue faced by many scientific researchers is the inability to choose the appropriate ML pipelines that are needed to treat real-world data, which is often sparse and noisy. To solve this problem, we have developed an automated Machine Learning tool (MLtool) that includes a set of ML algorithms and approaches to aid scientific researchers. The current version of MLtool is implemented as an object-oriented Python code that is easily extensible. It includes 44 different regression algorithms used to model data. MLtool helps users select the best model for their data, based on the scoring metrics used. Besides regression algorithms, MLtool also includes a suite of pre- and post-processing techniques such as missing value imputation, categorical variable encoding, input feature normalization, uncertainty quantification, exploratory data analysis (EDA), etc. MLtool was tested on several publicly available multi-dimensional data sets and was found capable of making accurate predictions.

Machine Learning↗
NASA NTRS2021

3D Cloud Tomography and Droplet Size Retrieval from Multi-Angle Polarimetric Imaging of Scattered Sunlight from Above

Tomography aims to recover a three-dimensional (3D) density map of a medium or an object. In medical imaging,it is extensively used for diagnostics via X-ray computed tomography (CT). We define and derive a tomographyof cloud droplet distributions via passive remote sensing. We use multi-view polarimetric images to fit a 3Dpolarized radiative transfer (RT) forward model. Our motivation is 3D volumetric probing of vertically-developedconvectively-driven clouds that are ill-served by current methods in operational passive remote sensing. Currenttechniques are indeed based on strictly 1D RT modeling and applied to a single cloudy pixel, where cloud geometrydefaults to that of a plane-parallel slab. Incident unpolarized sunlight, once scattered by cloud droplets, changesits polarization state according to droplet size. Therefore, polarimetric measurements in the rainbow and gloryangular regions can be used to infer the droplet size distribution. This work defines and derives a framework for afull 3D tomography of cloud droplets for both their mass concentration in space and their distribution across arange of sizes. This gridded 3D retrieval of key microphysical properties is made tractable by our novel approachthat involves a restructuring and partial linearization of an open-source polarized 3D RT code to accommodate aspecial two-step iterative optimization technique. Physically-realistic synthetic clouds are used to demonstrate themethodology with rigorous uncertainty quantification, while a real-world cloud imaged by AirMSPI is processedto illustrate the new remote sensing capability

Schechner, Yoav Y.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Information Systems Technology for NASA Earth Systems Digital Twins (ESDT)

The term “Digital Twin” was first used in 2002 for product lifecycle management. Since then, Digital Twin concepts have been proposed in various domains until very recently for Earth Science. For NASA’s Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program, an Earth System Digital Twin (ESDT) is defined as composed of three components: 1. A Digital Replica, i.e., an integrated picture of the past and current states of Earth systems 2. Forecasting capabilities, providing an integrated picture of how Earth systems will evolve in the future from the current state 3. Impact Assessment capabilities, providing an integrated picture of how Earth systems could evolve under different hypothetical what-if scenarios. Developing such a vision will require technologies related to: integrating continuous observations from various disparate sources; developing frameworks that builds on inter-connected models; improving the speed and accuracy of integrated prediction, analysis and visualization capabilities (e.g., by using machine learning); and utilizing causality and uncertainty quantification to improve our understanding of the evolution of Earth Science systems as a function of their interactions with other Earth and human systems. In addition, AIST is also investigating interoperability standards to federate multiple Digital Twins, as well as computational resources required by those systems.

Earth Science Remote Sensing; Information Systems↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Nasa Multiscale Analysis Tool: an Enabling Platform for Achieving Vision 2040

Vision 2040 is a community-driven consensus document, written in 2018, aimed at defining the potential 25-year future state required for performing integrated multiscale modeling of materials and systems for future aerospace and aeronautical applications. Nine Vision Key Elements (KEs) were defined along with associated technical gaps. This paper will address current NASA GRC research efforts utilizing the NASA Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT). This paper will specifically focus on NASMAT’s ability to address gaps in three of the nine Vision 2040 KEs: 1) Models and Methods, 2) Multiscale Measurements and Characterization Tools and Methods, and 6) Data, Informatics, and Visualization. NASMAT is a versatile platform for performing computationally efficient multiscale analyses of heterogeneous materials. NASMAT offers the user flexibility to define an arbitrary number of length scales (levels) where a variety of micromechanics theories can be implemented at each level. Micromechanics theories can be selected to balance accuracy and computational efficiency and range from analytical (Mori-Tanaka) to several semi-analytical (method of cells) formulations. NASMAT can also be coupled with external software and used to perform multiscale analyses of more complex structures. The paper will include a recent application of NASMAT to model a complex, three-dimensional woven composite, with a particular emphasis placed on multiscale measurements utilized to enhance the quality of the multiscale analysis. Since typical NASMAT analyses can be completed in on the order of seconds to minutes, a second example will demonstrate NASMAT’s ability to generate large quantities of data useful for sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, or machine learning applications. Current progress on developing multiscale data visualization tools will also be addressed along with the challenges associated with and proposed solutions for sifting through large amounts of data. These examples will demonstrate that NASMAT is an enabling platform for achieving the goals in Vision 2040.

Vision 2040↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software

The open-source Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software was implemented to offer an efficient framework for determining material characteristics from 3D microstructures. Its development was inspired by progress in X-ray microtomography, an imaging technology that captures the internal structure of materials in 3D, and even in a 4D temporal context. Over recent years, this method has transformed the domain of materials science due to its capability to non-destructively examine material microstructures while presenting digital data about their geometrical details. It has provided insights into materials relevant to several NASA missions, including heatshields, parachute fabrics, meteorites, and other advanced composites. PuMA, in its current version 3, delivers an array of features, spanning from basic geometric insights of a microstructure to intricate anisotropic thermo-elastic and chemical behavior. Specifically, the software evaluates morphological attributes (specific surface area, volume fractions, mean intercept lengths, orientation) and physical characteristics (conductivity, elasticity, permeability, and tortuosity). Additionally, it can model material degradation processes, such as oxidation and surface chemistry interactions. The software can generate synthetic microstructures, from straightforward geometrical designs to intricate woven and non-woven geometries. Coupling material generation and characterization enable parametric studies and sensitivity analysis to optimize the microstructural performance and inform design decisions and reliability assessment based on uncertainty quantification. A recent addition to PuMA includes the TomoSAM plugin, devised to incorporate the cutting-edge Segment Anything Model (SAM). SAM is a promptable deep learning model that can identify objects and create image masks in a zero-shot manner, based only on a few user clicks. The synergy between these tools aids in the segmentation of complex 3D datasets from tomography or other imaging techniques, which would otherwise require a laborious manual segmentation process.

Tomography↗
NASA NTRS2023

An Enabling Platform for Achieving Multiscale Multiphysics Analysis of Multiphase Materials

This paper will address current NASA GRC research efforts utilizing the NASA Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT) which address technical gaps in three of the Vision 2040 key discipline areas. NASMAT is a versatile platform for performing computationally efficient multiscale analyses of heterogeneous materials and is available free through the NASA software catalog. It offers the user flexibility to define an arbitrary number of length scales (levels) where a variety of micromechanics theories can be implemented at each level. Micromechanics theories can be selected to balance accuracy and computational efficiency and range from analytical (Mori-Tanaka) to several semi-analytical (method of cells) formulations. The resulting anisotropic, evolving nonlinear, thermomechanical constitutive model can also be coupled with external software and used to perform multiscale analyses of more complex structures. A recent application to model a complex, three-dimensional woven composite, with a particular emphasis placed on multiscale measurements utilized to enhance the quality of the multiscale analysis will be discussed. Since typical NASMAT analyses can be completed on the order of seconds to minutes, a second example will demonstrate the ability to generate large quantities of data useful for sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, or machine learning applications. Current progress on implementing NASMAT within a multiscale digital thread/digital twin framework will also be addressed. These examples will demonstrate that NASMAT is an enabling platform for achieving the goals in Vision 2040.

Multiscale↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software

The open-source Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software was created to offer an efficient framework for determining material properties from 3D microstructures. Its development was inspired by progress in X-ray microtomography, an imaging technology that captures the internal structure of materials in 3D, and even in a 4D temporal context. Over recent years, this method has transformed the domain of materials science due to its capability to non-destructively examine material microstructures while presenting digital data about their geometrical details. It has provided insights into materials relevant to several NASA missions, including heatshields, parachute fabrics, meteorites, and other advanced composites. PuMA, in its current version 3, delivers an array of features, spanning from basic geometric insights of a microstructure to intricate anisotropic thermo-elastic and chemical behavior. Specifically, the software evaluates morphological attributes (specific surface area, volume fractions, mean intercept lengths, orientation) and physical characteristics (conductivity, elasticity, permeability, and tortuosity). Additionally, it can model material degradation processes, such as oxidation and surface chemistry interactions. The software can generate synthetic microstructures, from straightforward geometrical designs to intricate woven and non-woven geometries. Coupling material generation and characterization enables parametric studies and sensitivity analysis to optimize the microstructural performance and inform design decisions and reliability assessment based on uncertainty quantification. A recent addition to PuMA includes the TomoSAM plugin, devised to incorporate the cutting-edge Segment Anything Model (SAM) into our image segmentation workflow. SAM is a promptable deep learning model that can identify objects and create image masks in a zero-shot manner, based only on a few user clicks. The synergy between these tools aids in the segmentation of complex 3D datasets from tomography and other imaging techniques, which would otherwise require a laborious manual segmentation process.

Tomography↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of Aerodynamic Loads Databases for the Space Launch System Booster Separation Event

Booster separation is a mission-critical event within the orbital ascent of the Space Launch System (SLS). The complexity of the engine plume-affected, multibody, supersonic aerodynamics is compounded by the large span of the likely trajectory space. Characterization of the multiple input, multiple output system requires a combination of wind tunnel testing and computational simulation, but additional data processing is also required before the sparse, high-fidelity data can be fused into a continuous database with acceptable uncertainty quantification. This paper outlines the state of this approach as it has been applied to the most recent SLS booster separation aerodynamic loads database: that of the Artemis II launch vehicle.

Michael W Lee↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of Aerodynamic Loads Databases for the Space Launch System Booster Separation Event

Booster separation is a mission-critical event within the orbital ascent of the Space Launch System (SLS). The complexity of the engine plume-affected, multibody, supersonic aerodynamics is compounded by the large span of the likely trajectory space. Characterization of the multiple input, multiple output system requires a combination of wind tunnel testing and computational simulation, but additional data processing is also required before the sparse, high-fidelity data can be fused into a continuous database with acceptable uncertainty quantification. This paper outlines the state of this approach as it has been applied to the most recent SLS booster separation aerodynamic loads database: that of the Artemis II launch vehicle.

Michael Lee↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Earth Systems Digital Twins (ESDT)

"Similarly to artificial intelligence, which is now revolutionizing many aspects of our daily lives, Earth system digital twin technologies have the potential to revolutionize the way Earth Science research will be conducted in the future, and how results and knowledge from this research will provide information to support decision making and yield impactful societal benefits. An Earth System Digital Twin or ESDT is a dynamic and interactive information system that first provides a digital replica of the past and current states of the Earth or Earth system as accurately and timely as possible; second, allows for computing forecasts of future states under nominal assumptions and based on the current replica; and third, offers the capability to investigate many hypothetical scenarios under varying impact assumptions. In other words, an ESDT provides the integrated What-Now, What-Next, and What-If pictures of the Earth or Earth system, by continuously ingesting newly observed data and by leveraging multiple interconnected models, machine learning as well advanced computing and visualization capabilities. Digital twins have been developed in engineering since 2002, but the interest in digital twins for the Earth domain is more recent and stems from the convergence of several developments: - The huge amount of diverse data that has now been collected continuously for more than 50 years, and that is becoming more and more difficult to access, understand, and utilize. - At the same time, because of climate change and its impacts the information produced by all of this data is becoming of interest to many new non-traditional users for analyzing and predicting various phenomena. - Because of advances in computational and visualization capabilities and the parallel unprecedented development of machine learning (ML), extracting relevant information from these large amounts of data and running complex models faster has become possible. As a result, it is becoming necessary and possible to build intuitive and interactive frameworks that will enable users with various skill levels and/or organizational hierarchy levels to easily access large amounts of targeted information along with the relevant tools and models (Earth system and human activity models), to support them in analyzing and visualizing this information, to help them understand interactions among models, to visualize the potential outcomes of various impacts, and to support decision or policy making. The full power of digital twins is that, through an integrated representation and standardized tools and software technologies, the same digital replica can address the needs of multiple users at various resolutions (spatial and temporal) and for various applications (science, economic, policy, etc.) – “from farmer to scientist”. With all these interests at stake, the challenges of building optimal digital twins are many and complex. The first challenge is to determine if a Digital Twin should be global or local, and multi-domain or thematic. For example, some domains such as Climate or Weather will require a global Digital Twin or Digital Twin capabilities while science areas such as Biodiversity might be more local. We can also envision that multiple thematic ESDTs, e.g., Air Quality, Wildfires, Hydrology could be federated or provide input to other ESDTs, either on a regional level or to a more global ESDT. Overall, we can imagine a future “web” of Digital Twins co-existing in a hierarchy or in a network, and capable of being connected or federated depending on the needs. This last point brings up the very important challenge of interoperability, including standards and protocols that will need to be built into these systems from the beginning. Each individual digital twin would have full flexibility in internal construction but would need standards-based interfaces (input and output) or hooks to make it compatible with others. Another challenge when building digital twins will be to decide how to organize each digital replica. Based on the applications targeted by the DT under implementation, various amounts and types of raw data, Analysis Ready Data (ARD) and information will need to be incorporated. Depending on the required latencies and needs of the users, various solutions can be considered, including Data Cubes, Data Lakes, pointers, or computing information on demand. We envision that each ESDT will choose a solution adapted to its specific objectives. Another important challenge is the type(s) of visualization that will be used, as well as the level of interactivity and refresh rate that will be required. Again, this will depend on the objectives of the ESDT, but also on the various users’ needs. In most cases, several types of visualizations and human interfaces will need to be offered depending on the projected users of that system. In parallel to the challenges highlighted above, there are also many tools and technologies that will need to be developed or improved for all types of digital twins. Among those are improved machine learning technologies, for example providing explainability, but also ML techniques for causality and providing a better integration of physics models. Additionally, reliable uncertainty quantification methods will be needed for all ESDT components, from validating data fusion and assimilation to assessing the accuracy of ML models and weighing the values of decisions supported by those systems. This presentation introduces the ESDT concept, presents several ESDT use cases, and a proposed ESDT architecture framework, as well as various technologies being developed by the Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program."

Earth Science Remote Sensing; Information Systems↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Bond Line Thickness Estimation in Composite Structures Using Multiple Inspection Techniques

Imaging and other nondestructive evaluation techniques are commonly used for material characterization and defect recognition in safety critical aerospace applications, with data fusion providing the framework for uncertainty quantification in these contexts. Most commonly, forward physics-based modeling predicts the response conditioned on material properties and defect assumptions, and probabilistic methods are used to infer the hidden state of the subject of the inspection from a combination of prior information, likelihoods, and inspection data. In this paper Bayesian methods are used to estimate bond thickness in lap joints comprised of aluminum adherends using a combination of infrared thermography and ultrasound. The concept of the conflation of probability distributions is applied to combine the posterior distributions derived from thermography and ultrasound and the quality of the fused estimates are compared against the individual estimates against synthetic data that was created to mimic the inspection of a lap joint comprised of aluminum adherends.

thermal nondestructive evaluation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Bond Line Thickness Estimation in Composite Structures Using Multiple Inspection Techniques

Imaging and other nondestructive evaluation techniques are commonly used for material characterization and defect recognition in safety critical aerospace applications, with data fusion providing the framework for uncertainty quantification in these contexts. Most commonly, forward physics-based modeling predicts the response conditioned on material properties and defect assumptions, and probabilistic methods are used to infer the hidden state of subject of the inspection from a combination of prior information, likelihoods, and inspection data. In this paper Bayesian methods are used to estimate bond thickness in lap joints comprised of aluminum adherends using a combination of infrared thermography, digital radiography, and ultrasound. The accuracy of the fused estimates are validated against data generated from synthetic specimens, and by comparison against high resolution X-ray computed tomography inspections of built specimens.

thermal nondestructive evaluation↗
NASA NTRS2023

Real Options Analysis for Valuation of Climate Adaptation Pathways With Application to Transit Infrastructure

Climate change and sea level rise (SLR) are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of coastal flood events, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructure. While regional climate adaptation investments can provide substantive flood protection, existing plans often neglect uncertainty in future climate conditions and adaptation performance, consequently neglecting the option value of flexibly implementing proposed projects. Addressing this gap, we develop and employ a generalizable real options analysis (ROA) valuation framework that considers how uncertainty in adaptation project costs, SLR, flood severity, and flood losses inform the full range of adaptation performance outcomes. We further propose and apply a novel, computationally efficient flood loss sampling algorithm to estimate the consequences of randomly arriving coastal flood events. We apply this ROA framework to assess the option value of flexibly timing adaptation investments over time, investigating an adaptation pathway proposed by the City of Boston from the perspective of the regional transit system manager. Our results suggest that flexible implementation can provide significant option value in the near-to mid-term(>30 years), with highest option values under low-probability, high consequence scenarios. Our results also suggest adaptation pathway performance in the latter half of the 21stcenturyis most sensitive to uncertainty in sea level rise, flood loss estimates, and flood frequency, underscoring the importance of uncertainty quantification in the long-term valuation of adaptation investments.

Michael V. Martello↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Trajectory Engineering with Modular Patched Conics for Entry Systems and TPS (TEMPEST)

Brief Presenter Biography (35 word limit): Bohdan Wesely is an Aerospace Engineer in the Entry Systems and Technology Division at Ames. He has worked on a variety of projects for NASA including integrated TPS (thermal protection system) flight hardware deliveries and testing services for commercial partners. Introduction: TEMPEST is a new trajectory analysis framework that is designed to fill the gap between dedicated flight mechanics tools and aerothermal and TPS sizing tools. The project started as an SJSU master’s thesis and has since evolved into a general conceptual design tool capable of studying a wide variety of entry problems. Development is ongoing in the Entry Systems and Technology Division at NASA ARC. Why TEMPEST: Space missions involving entry into a planetary atmosphere involve a series of unique requirements across multiple disciplines. Whether it is traditional entry descent and landing (EDL), or aerocapture, the vehicle must navigate to its target landing location or orbit state, and the TPS must protect the payload during entry. The design process typically involves iterative handoffs between various flight mechanics, flow solver, and material response level tools. During the early conceptual phase, a wide variety of feasible trajectories are simulated in a Monte Carlo scenario which broadly satisfy the mission or landing requirements. Next, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC), and other flow solver analyses are performed at various key trajectory points to generate an aero-database, heating and TPS design requirements also emerge at this stage. At this point, with updated aerodynamics from the various flow solvers, trajectories can be re-run, this in turn can change the required freestream conditions for the CFD tools, and as a project progresses, these analyses converge, and uncertainty is reduced. However, there is always a “hand-off” occurring between two inherently coupled phenomena. Analysis Description: One of the goals with TEMPEST is to use a variety of first principles estimation methods coupled with an atmosphere model to predict vehicle aerothermodynamics across the entire flight regime while propagating a 3 or 6 degree of freedom (DoF) trajectory. Aerodynamics methods include modified Newtonian, Maxwell and Cercignani- Lampis-Lord (CLL) for continuum, transitional, and free molecular flow regimes. Aerothermodynamics include boundary layer and reference enthalpy methods, and Mutation++ for non-equilibrium chemistry modeling. TEMPEST is also capable of stitching multiple trajectory segments together to study mission scenarios like multi-pass aerocapture and aero-gravity assists. Most of the program is implemented in MATLAB using modern system objects, it relies on several C++ shared libraries for supporting tools like Gmsh, the Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM), and Mutation++. The various first principles aerothermal estimation methods are discretized across either a structured axisymmetric panel mesh or an unstructured tri-mesh generated from an open-source tool such as Gmsh, this allows solutions on the same mesh to be compared across tools such as CB-Aero. CFD Coupling. A physics-aware, gaussian process CFD anchoring scheme is proposed to adjust the various first principles methods as a CFD database is populated. One goal for this anchoring module is to inform the project where CFD should be run. Full knowledge of the entire trajectory, atmosphere, and aerothermodynamics allows for easier identification of high sensitivity areas and uncertainty quantification. While the first principles effects are well known and proven accurate in existing tools such as CB- Aero and Cart3D, a physics aware CFD anchoring scheme increases tool credibility across a project lifecycle. Material Response Modeling. Correct TPS sizing is critical for optimizing mass for science payloads and ensuring mission success. The process typically involves a thermal analysis along the trajectory with surface heating environments as a boundary condition. Several design constraints are maximum bondline temperature and maximum recession with various margining techniques. The material response tool FIAT, developed out of NASA Ames, is currently being integrated into the TEMPEST environment. TPS recession, shape change, mass loss, and mass property alteration are all factors that can perturb an entry trajectory. For missions like Mars 2020, recession was minimal and was safely handled separately as a post process. For missions such as Jupiter Galileo with a high TPS mass fraction or asteroid entries, recession plays a major role. The proposed fully coupled scheme is to use an epoch-based approach where the trajectory integration is halted after a recession threshold, the energy balance and FIAT are solved at each panel, the mesh, aerodynamics, and mass properties are updated, and the trajectory continues. Several computational tradeoffs have been made during the development of TEMPEST to limit the cost of a single trajectory and preserve its utility as a conceptual, rapid iteration tool. Conclusion: Development of TEMPEST is ongoing and the project is still in its infancy. This talk aims to showcase its unique capabilities to support future NASA entry systems missions.

Bohdan O Wesely↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantification of Numerical Uncertainty via Nonlinear Dynamical Approach

Motivations (Ensure a Higher Level of Confidence in the Predictability & Reliability of Numerical Simulation for Multiscale Complex Nonlinear Fluid Problems) - The last two decades have been an era when computation is ahead of analysis & when very large scale practical computations are increasingly used in poorly understood multiscale complex nonlinear physical problems & non-traditional fields (Especially when computations offer the ONLY way of generating this type of data limited simulations). - At present some of the numerical uncertainties can be explained and minimized by traditional numerical analysis and standard CFD practices. However, such practices, usually based on linearized analysis, MIGHT NOT be sufficient for strongly nonlinear and/or stiff problems. - We need a good understanding of the nonlinear behavior of numerical schemes being used as an integral part of code verification, validation and certification.

HEC↗