Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “uncertainty Quantification”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-fidelity machine-learning with uncertainty quantification and Bayesian optimization for materials design: Application to ternary random alloys

We present a scale-bridging approach based on a multi-fidelity (MF) machine-learning (ML) framework leveraging Gaussian processes (GP) to fuse atomistic computational model predictions across multiple levels of fidelity. Through the posterior variance of the MFGP, our framework naturally enables uncertainty quantification, providing estimates of confidence in the predictions. We used density functional theory as high-fidelity prediction, while a ML interatomic potential is used as low-fidelity prediction. Practical materials’ design efficiency is demonstrated by reproducing the ternary composition dependence of a quantity of interest (bulk modulus) across the full aluminum–niobium–titanium ternary random alloy composition space. The MFGP is then coupled to a Bayesian optimization procedure, and the computational efficiency of this approach is demonstrated by performing an on-the-fly search for the global optimum of bulk modulus in the ternary composition space. The framework presented in this manuscript is the first application of MFGP to atomistic materials simulations fusing predictions between density functional theory and classical interatomic potential calculations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty quantification of mass models using ensemble Bayesian model averaging

Developments in the description of the masses of atomic nuclei have led to various nuclear mass models that provide predictions for masses across the whole chart of nuclides. These mass models play an important role in understanding the synthesis of heavy elements in the rapid neutron capture ( r ) process. However, it is still a challenging task to estimate the size of uncertainty associated with the predictions of each mass model. In this work, a method called ensemble Bayesian model averaging (EBMA) is introduced to quantify the uncertainty of one-neutron separation energies (S 1 n ) which are directly relevant in the calculations of r -process observables. Here, this Bayesian method provides a natural way to perform model averaging, selection, and uncertainty quantification, by combining the mass models as a mixture of normal distributions whose parameters are optimized against the experimental data, employing the Markov chain Monte Carlo method using the no-u-turn sampler. The EBMA model optimized with all the experimental S 1 n from the AME2003 nuclides are shown to provide reliable uncertainty estimates when tested with the new data in the AME2020.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification of fireball features extracted from nuclear test films using computer vision

Films from the US’s historic nuclear testing era comprise the only extensive collection of imagery depicting high-yield detonations. These films offer unique insights into the characteristics of flows occurring on scales that are difficult to replicate experimentally, and they are a valuable source of data for the validation of models used to describe nuclear detonations. In recent work, we implemented modern computer vision and machine learning techniques to extract features of the fireball following nuclear detonation. With a training dataset of fireball films, we fine-tuned a You Only Look Once 11 (YOLO11) model to detect and track the fireball. Applied to a video, the outer bounding box produced in each frame by YOLO11 is used as an input prompt to Meta’s Segment Anything Model 2 (SAM2), which is shown to accurately predict the boundary of the fireball over time with high resolution. These state-of-the-art computer vision foundation models exhibit impressive visual accuracy in their results but lack an output of values that robustly quantify uncertainty in scientific applications. In this paper, we develop procedures for uncertainty quantification of extracted fireball features. We outline the application of a parallel attention mechanism to calculate uncertainty ranges that complement and better pose model validation data. This higher quality fireball validation data may serve to improve prognostic models describing nuclear detonations in support of nuclear forensic and emergency response activities.

Khristy, Joel [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000209963060)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Developing an Automated Uncertainty Quantification Tool to Improve Watershed-Scale Predictions of Water and Nutrient Cycling

Managing the flow of water, nutrients, and contaminants in watersheds is vital to addressing pressing issues related to water scarcity, access to clean drinking water, energy production, resilience to natural and anthropogenic perturbations, and ecological restoration. Decisions about the management of watersheds critically depend on the accuracy with which the flow of water and chemicals through the watershed can be predicted by computer models. Prediction uncertainty can be reduced by matching the model to data, which are collected in the field at great expense. The contribution of watershed characterization data to reducing uncertainty of relevant model predictions can be evaluated in a so-called data-worth analysis, which provides transparent, quantitative metrics about a data set’s value for the support of relevant watershed management objectives. To achieve this goal, we developed a software package that implements the data-worth analysis approach for use with state-of-the-art watershed models. The purpose of the proposed data-worth analysis is to help decision-makers allocate resources for watershed characterization such that the uncertainty in model predictions can be significantly reduced, which leads to better, more effective management decisions. At the same time, watershed characterization costs can be reduced. The specific technical objectives of this SBIR/STTR Phase II project were to develop a framework and associated software toolsets that implement the uncertainty quantification and data-worth analysis approach for use with state-of-the-art watershed models. This goal was achieved by (A) developing a user-friendly, robust software package that is accessible to a wide audience, including watershed managers, policy-makers, and public stakeholders; (B) by demonstrating application of the prototype on several use cases that are representative of complex watershed management challenges spanning a range of scales and that consider different open-source, DOE-based codes and other modeling platforms; and (C) by gathering information about the needs and requirements from potential users to help guide future developments, ensuring that the final product will be commercially viable. The developed software consists of a graphical user interface that guides the user through a sequence of analysis steps, supported by toolsets that leverage state-of-the-art computational simulation-optimization capabilities. A prototype of the software runs on multiple platforms (PC, Mac, multi-processor Linux environment), is linked to diverse watershed simulators (e.g., ECOSYS, TOUGH2, TOUGHREACT, Amanzi-ATS), performs multiple analysis tasks (predictive simulations, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty analysis, automatic parameter estimation, and data-worth analysis, multicomponent geothermometry), and is readily extensible to include external simulators and analysis tools. The software is being commercialized and will be continually updated to address user needs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty Quantification of Machine Learning Predicted Creep Property of Alumina-Forming Austenitic Alloys

The development of machine learning (ML) approaches in materials science offers the opportunity to exploit existing engineering and developmental alloy datasets, such as Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)’s consistently measured creep-rupture dataset for alumina-forming austenitic (AFA) alloys, to accelerate their further development. As a first step toward achieving ML insights for improved alloy design, the potential sources of uncertainty and their impacts on ML output are examined. It is observed that the selection of algorithms and features as well as data sampling significantly affects the performance of ML models, either positively or negatively. Further, the performance of various ML models in predicting the creep properties of AFA alloys is compared, with further evaluation by assessment of a small set of new developmental AFA alloys that were not part of the training dataset. The present study demonstrates that uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential in materials science for evaluating the performance of ML algorithms with specifically selected feature sets and obtaining a comprehensive understanding of their limitations and the resultant capability of effective prediction in complex materials systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ab Initio Uncertainty Quantification of Neutrinoless Double-Beta Decay in 76 Ge

The observation of neutrinoless double-beta (0⁢𝜈⁢𝛽⁢𝛽) decay would offer proof of lepton number violation, demonstrating that neutrinos are Majorana particles, while also helping us understand why there is more matter than antimatter in the Universe. If the decay is driven by the exchange of the three known light neutrinos, a discovery would, in addition, link the observed decay rate to the neutrino mass scale through a theoretical quantity known as the nuclear matrix element (NME). Accurate values of the NMEs for all nuclei considered for use in 0⁢𝜈⁢𝛽⁢𝛽 experiments are therefore crucial for designing and interpreting those experiments. Here, we report the first comprehensive ab initio uncertainty quantification of the 0⁢𝜈⁢𝛽⁢𝛽-decay NME, in the key nucleus 76 Ge. Here, our method employs nuclear strong and weak interactions derived within chiral effective field theory and recently developed many-body emulators. Our result, with a conservative treatment of uncertainty, is an NME of 2.60$^{+1.28}_{−1.36}$, which, together with the best-existing half-life sensitivity and phase-space factor, sets an upper limit for effective neutrino mass of 187$^{+205}_{−62}$ meV. The result is important for designing next generation germanium detectors aiming to cover the entire inverted hierarchy region of neutrino masses.

Ab initio calculations↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evolutionary multi-objective optimization and Pareto-frontal uncertainty quantification of interatomic forcefields for thermal conductivity simulations

Predictive Molecular Dynamics simulations of thermal transport require forcefields that can simultaneously reproduce several structural, thermodynamic and vibrational properties of materials like lattice constants, phonon density of states, and specific heat. This requires a multi-objective optimization approach for forcefield parameterization. Existing methodologies for forcefield parameterization use ad-hoc and empirical weighting schemes to convert this into a single-objective optimization problem. Here, we provide and describe software to perform multi-objective optimization of Stillinger–Weber forcefields (SWFF) for two-dimensional layered materials using the recently developed 3rd generation non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-III). NSGA-III converges to the set of optimal forcefields lying on the Pareto front in the multi-dimensional objective space. This set of forcefields is used for uncertainty quantification of computed thermal conductivity due to variability in the forcefield parameters. We demonstrate this new optimization scheme by constructing a SWFF for a representative two-dimensional material, 2H-MoSe 2 and quantifying the uncertainty in their computed thermal conductivity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermodynamic modeling with uncertainty quantification using the modified quasichemical model in quadruplet approximation: Implementation into PyCalphad and ESPEI

The modified quasichemical model in the quadruplet approximation (MQMQA) considers the first- and the second-nearest-neighbor coordination and interactions, particularly useful in describing short-range ordering (SRO) in complex liquids such as molten salts, slag in metal processing, and electrolytic solutions. Here, the present work implements the MQMQA into the Python based open-source software PyCalphad for thermodynamic calculations. This endeavor facilitates the development of MQMQA-based thermodynamic database with uncertainty quantification (UQ) and propagation (UP) using the open-source software ESPEI. A new database structure based on Extensible Markup Language (XML) is proposed for ESPEI evaluation of MQMQA model parameters. Using the KF-NiF 2 , KCl-NaCl-MgCl 2 , and CaCl 2 -CaF 2 -LiCl-LiF salt systems as examples, we demonstrate the successful implementation of MQMQA in PyCalphad through thermodynamic calculations of Gibbs energy, equilibrium quadruplet fractions, and phase diagram, as well as database development with UQ and UP using ESPEI. Furthermore, as an application of the present implementation, both the LiF–TbF 3 and LiF-HoF 3 systems have been modeled by MQMQA for the first time, which are in good agreement with experiments. The present implementation hence offers an open-source capability for performing CALPHAD modeling for complex liquids with SRO using MQMQA plus a new XML database structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification of CESAR1 Solvent System for Post-Combustion Capture

This presentation is focused on the development of the CESAR1 solvent system model by the CCSI2 team and validation with pilot plant data from Technology Centre Mongstad. It also serves as an update of previous work by incorporating a new thermodynamic model of the system developed by collaborators from Heriot-Watt University through the SCOPE program. Finally, it includes some discussions on future directions of the project including collaboration with SCOPE to add the capability of amine emissions prediction along with some parametric uncertainty quantification work on the submodels.

Morgan, Joshua↗
DOE OSTI2022

Thermodynamic modeling of the Pd–Zn system with uncertainty quantification and its implication to tailor catalysts

Pd–Zn intermetallic catalysts show encouraging combinations of activity and selectivity on well-defined active site ensembles. Thermodynamic description of the Pd–Zn system, delineating phase boundaries and enumerating site occupancies within intermediate alloy phases, is essential to determining the ensembles of Pd–Zn atoms as a function of composition and temperature. Combining the present extensive first-principles calculations based on density functional theory (DFT) and available experimental data, the Pd–Zn system was remodeled using the CALculation of PHAse Diagrams (CALPHAD) approach. High throughput modeling tools with uncertainty quantification, i.e., ESPEI and PyCalphad, were incorporated in the phase analysis. Here, the site occupancies across the γ phase composition region were given special attention. A four-sublattice model was used for the γ phase owing to its four Wyckoff positions, i.e., the outer tetrahedral (OT) site 8c, the inner tetrahedral (IT) site 8c, the octahedral (OH) site 12e, and the cuboctahedral (CO) site 24g. The site fractions of Pd and Zn calculated from the present thermodynamic model show the occupancy preference of Pd in the OT and OH sublattices in agreement with experimental observations. The force constants obtained from DFT-based phonon calculations further supports the tendency of Pd occupying the OH sublattice compared with the IT and CO sublattice. The catalytic ensembles changing from Pd monomers (Pd 1 ) to trimers (Pd 3 ) on the surface of γ phase are attributed to the increase of Pd occupancy in the OH sublattice.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Neural Density Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification for ChemCam Spectra [Slides]

The ChemCam instrument of Curiosity uses laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS). It fires a laser at target and vaporizes rock surfaces, creating a plasma. Three spectrographs divide the plasma light into wavelengths for chemical analysis: ultraviolet, violet, and visible near-infrared. Regression methods (SVR, PCR, CNN) have been employed for calibration (prediction of the elemental composition of samples); however, labeled ChemCam samples are limited. Here, we focus on unsupervised learning and employ generative models from ChemCam analysis. Further, we use labels (supervised) in combination to the generative model to compute uncertainties related to predictions. We report generative modeling can be successfully applied to model real-world data. Normalizing flow models can be efficiently constructed on latent spaces for fast downstream inference. Unsupervised and supervised learning can be combined to form an uncertainty quantification framework.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

ESMs Latent Space Exploration for Uncertainty Quantification and Spatiotemporal Downscaling

This final report for DOE Award DE-SC0023044 presents advances in two key areas of climate modeling: (1) representative climate model selection and (2) Earth System Model (ESM) downscaling using hybrid AI methods. The first section introduces a reordered, three-stage workflow to select representative GCM runs that more effectively balance historical skill with ensemble spread, validated across Texas, Bihar, and New York. The second section introduces two novel super-resolution frameworks, ViSIR and ViFOR, that integrate Vision Transformers with sinusoidal and Fourier-based implicit neural representations. These models achieve state-of-the-art reconstruction accuracy for ESM variables including surface temperature and heat fluxes. The report includes detailed methodology, benchmarks, and results, demonstrating significant gains in uncertainty quantification, spatial fidelity, and scalability for climate-impact studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Automated Probabilistic Finite Element Model Calibration Tool Based on Uncertainty Quantification and Machine Learning

Qualification and certification of safety critical parts is a hurdle to the adoption of metallic additively manufactured components for aerospace vehicle applications. Challenges include variability in part properties due to inconsistent defect distribution and microstructure. Understanding of the process through finite element modeling (FEM), and process control through in-situ monitoring, may result in significant improvements; however, solutions useful to manufacturers will require large volumes of data and automated data utilization. Toward this end, a generalizable automated FEM calibration paradigm is developed. This paradigm leverages existing and novel tools from machine learning and uncertainty quantification to enable the automatic calibration of FEMs without requiring prior knowledge of the model performance across input parameter space, including meshing and solver settings, which can require time consuming manual model probing or cause noisy and inconsistent predictions. The result is a probabilistic distribution of calibrated and validated FEM input parameters targeting measured data.

Additive manufacturing model calibration finite el↗
DOE OSTI2023

Preliminary Results for Uncertainty Quantification on Asymptotic Hydrogen Redistribution in a Prototypical Yttrium-Hydride Moderated Heat-Pipe-Cooled Microreactor

Yttrium hydride is one of the most promising materials for moderating nuclear microreactors. This is due to its high hydrogen concentration at high operating conditions, high value of thermal conductivity, and chemical stability. However, when subject to thermal and concentration spatial gradients, the hydrogen tends to migrate within the yttrium matrix, potentially leading to power swings and reactivity changes. This paper aims to present selected results concerning the sensitivity of the thermal and hydrogen redistribution response for a prototypical heat-pipe-cooled yttrium-hydride moderated microreactor to thermal properties uncertainty and selected design characteristics. To the best knowledge of the authors, this is the first study examining the impact of uncertainties on microreactor hydrogen redistribution response. To achieve this goal, Bison was used in conjunction with Dakota to create a framework able to perform Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) for the Simplified Microreactor Benchmark Assessment (SiMBA) problem.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geomagnetic Disturbance Uncertainty Quantification Modeling: An Electromagnetic Transient and Steady-State Simulation Based Approach

Geomagnetic disturbances have been shown to disrupt the operation of the bulk electrical system through low-frequency effects in the earth's magnetic field that in turn induce changing electrical fields on the earth's surface. As a result, geomagnetically induced currents flow in transmission lines, introducing the risk for widespread damage to high-voltage transformers and voltage collapse due to induced reactive power loss. In a previous paper, the authors showed how certain modeling assumptions can lead to results that are unacceptable in certain edge case scenarios. In this paper, the authors build on their previous results using modeling uncertainty quantification in order to compare the results from electromagnetic transient program modeling software, ATP, to the positive-sequence calculation software, PowerWorld.

Bretas, Arturo Suman↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of the SYM-H Index Using a Bayesian Deep Learning Method With Uncertainty Quantification

We propose a novel deep learning framework, named SYMHnet, which employs a graph neural network and a bidirectional long short-term memory network to cooperatively learn patterns from solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters for short-term forecasts of the SYM-H index based on 1- and 5-min resolution data. SYMHnet takes, as input, the time series of the parameters' values provided by NASA's Space Science Data Coordinated Archive and predicts, as output, the SYM-H index value at time point t + w hours for a given time point t where w is 1 or 2. By incorporating Bayesian inference into the learning framework, SYMHnet can quantify both aleatoric (data) uncertainty and epistemic (model) uncertainty when predicting future SYM-H indices. Experimental results show that SYMHnet works well at quiet time and storm time, for both 1- and 5-min resolution data. The results also show that SYMHnet generally performs better than related machine learning methods. For example, SYMHnet achieves a forecast skill score (FSS) of 0.343 compared to the FSS of 0.074 of a recent gradient boosting machine (GBM) method when predicting SYM-H indices (1 hr in advance) in a large storm (SYM-H = -393 nT) using 5-min resolution data. When predicting the SYM-H indices (2 hr in advance) in the large storm, SYMHnet achieves an FSS of 0.553 compared to the FSS of 0.087 of the GBM method. In addition, SYMHnet can provide results for both data and model uncertainty quantification, whereas the related methods cannot.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electronic structure prediction of multi-million atom systems through uncertainty quantification enabled transfer learning

The ground state electron density — obtainable using Kohn-Sham Density Functional Theory (KS-DFT) simulations — contains a wealth of material information, making its prediction via machine learning (ML) models attractive. However, the computational expense of KS-DFT scales cubically with system size which tends to stymie training data generation, making it difficult to develop quantifiably accurate ML models that are applicable across many scales and system configurations. Here, we address this fundamental challenge by employing transfer learning to leverage the multi-scale nature of the training data, while comprehensively sampling system configurations using thermalization. Our ML models are less reliant on heuristics, and being based on Bayesian neural networks, enable uncertainty quantification. We show that our models incur significantly lower data generation costs while allowing confident — and when verifiable, accurate — predictions for a wide variety of bulk systems well beyond training, including systems with defects, different alloy compositions, and at multi-million-atom scales. Moreover, such predictions can be carried out using only modest computational resources.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Using PyBioNetFit to leverage qualitative and quantitative data in biological model parameterization and uncertainty quantification

Data generated in studies of cellular regulatory systems are often qualitative. For example, measurements of signaling readouts in the presence and absence of mutations may reveal a rank ordering of responses across conditions but not the precise extents of mutation-induced differences. Qualitative data are often ignored by mathematical modelers or are considered in an ad hoc manner, as in the study of Kocieniewski and Lipniacki (2013) [Phys Biol 10: 035006], which was focused on the roles of MEK isoforms in ERK activation. In this earlier study, model parameter values were tuned manually to obtain consistency with a combination of qualitative and quantitative data. This approach is not reproducible, nor does it provide insights into parametric or prediction uncertainties. Here, starting from the same data and the same ordinary differential equation (ODE) model structure, we generate formalized statements of qualitative observations, making these observations more reusable, and we improve the model parameterization procedure by applying a systematic and automated approach enabled by the software package PyBioNetFit. We also demonstrate uncertainty quantification (UQ), which was absent in the original study. Our results show that PyBioNetFit enables qualitative data to be leveraged, together with quantitative data, in parameterization of systems biology models and facilitates UQ. These capabilities are important for reliable estimation of model parameters and model analyses in studies of cellular regulatory systems and reproducibility.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗