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NASA NTRS2019

Satellite Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis for "Dilution Region" Events: Issues and Operational Approaches

An important activity within Space Traffic Management is the detection and prevention of possible on-orbit collisions between space objects. The principal parameter for assessing collision likelihood is the probability of collision, which is widely accepted among conjunction assessment practitioners; but it possesses a known deficiency in that it can produce a false sense of safety when the orbital position uncertainties for the conjuncting objects are high. The probability of collision is said to be “diluted” in such a situation and to understate the possible risk; certain approaches have been recommended by researchers to provide (largely conservative) risk estimates and remediation methodologies in these cases. The present analysis explores two of the main proposals for quantifying and remediating possible risk in the dilution region and quantifies their operational implications. These implications with regard to imputed additional workload are considerable, especially in anticipating the conjunction event levels expected with the deployment of the USAF Space Fence radar. This effort has been undertaken as part of a larger enterprise that seeks to clarify the philosophical and statistical underpinnings of the conjunction risk assessment process. The analysis presented herein argues that a form of hypothesis testing is implicitly used in conjunction assessment risk analysis, and that there are a number of conceptual and practical reasons for constructing the associated null hypothesis to counsel against a satellite conjunction remediation action. In short, it is concluded that, for the purposes of determining whether a conjunction remediation action should be pursued, dilution-region probabilities of collision should be treated no differently from those produced under other circumstances.

Probability of collision↗

NASA NTRS1982

Comparing the relationships between noise level and annoyance in different surveys - A railway noise vs. aircraft and road traffic comparison

Annoyance expressed in a railway noise survey is compared with that from two road traffic and three aircraft surveys in order to determine whether responses to various types of environmental noise are source-specific. Railway noise is found to be less annoying than other noises at any given high noise level. Railway noise annoyance rises less rapidly with increasing noise level. At high levels, this gap in reactions averages about 10 dB; it ranges from 4 dB to more than 20 dB. The methods used for comparing the surveys are examined. It is found that methodological uncertainties lead to imprecise comparisons and that different annoyance scales yield different estimates of intersurvey differences.

Fields, J. M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of A Simulation Environment for Future Space Traffic Management

This study presents initial results of a newly developed simulation environment intendedto explore and assess future Space Traffic Management (STM) scenarios. The number ofnew Resident Space Objects (RSOs) in near-Earth orbit is expected to increase significantlywith the expected future deployment of a number of large constellations. These futurescenarios involve the addition of many tens of thousands of new RSOs, making the analysisinto their impact on collision risk extend beyond what traditional data-mining of present-dayconjunction data can reliably predict. To address this, a robust simulation environment wasdeveloped that implements a full force-model for orbit propagation, and computes continuousall-on-all conjunction statistics for arbitrarily large catalog sizes and simulation timeframes.Collision avoidance and station-keeping maneuvers can be optionally implemented based onconfigurable user inputs including physical characteristics and spacecraft meta-data (e.g.,commercial/government, owner country, etc.). Constellation build-out and de-orbit scenarioswere also implemented and modeled based on real-data analysis. Validation of the simulationresults was a critical component of the simulation development, and was done using the currentcatalog with comparisons against both public and internal NASA data-sets. The comparisonsdemonstrate that, with the appropriate settings, representative levels of conjunction ratesand probabilities can be obtained, providing confidence that the simulation tool can generatemeaningful outcomes for test scenarios. As an initial demonstration of the tool’s capabilities,year-long simulations with station-keeping were conducted to examine conjunction historiesusing both the current object catalog (5800 active satellites) and a hypothetical 60,000 objectscenario involving five potential large constellations. Output metrics include the number ofconjunction events, estimates of collision consequence (fragmentation), delta-V maneuver costs,and the probability of at least one collision occurring. The results highlight the potential thatthe simulation tool has for incorporating and running performance comparisons between, e.g.,various sets of maneuver guidelines, industry norms, and definitions of risk, with the overallobjective of providing actionable data to STM policy makers. The presentation will providean overview of the simulation development and validation efforts, as well as a discussion ofobservations gathered from the initial simulations performed.

conjunction assessment↗

NASA NTRS2014

A User Guide for Smoothing Air Traffic Radar Data

Matlab software was written to provide smoothing of radar tracking data to simulate ADS-B (Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast) data in order to test a tactical conflict probe. The probe, called TSAFE (Tactical Separation-Assured Flight Environment), is designed to handle air-traffic conflicts left undetected or unresolved when loss-of-separation is predicted to occur within approximately two minutes. The data stream that is down-linked from an aircraft equipped with an ADS-B system would include accurate GPS-derived position and velocity information at sample rates of 1 Hz. Nation-wide ADS-B equipage (mandated by 2020) should improve surveillance accuracy and TSAFE performance. Currently, position data are provided by Center radar (nominal 12-sec samples) and Terminal radar (nominal 4.8-sec samples). Aircraft ground speed and ground track are estimated using real-time filtering, causing lags up to 60 sec, compromising performance of a tactical resolution tool. Offline smoothing of radar data reduces wild-point errors, provides a sample rate as high as 1 Hz, and yields more accurate and lag-free estimates of ground speed, ground track, and climb rate. Until full ADS-B implementation is available, smoothed radar data should provide reasonable track estimates for testing TSAFE in an ADS-B-like environment. An example illustrates the smoothing of radar data and shows a comparison of smoothed-radar and ADS-B tracking. This document is intended to serve as a guide for using the smoothing software.

Center/Tracon Radar↗

NASA NTRS2006

Pattern-Based Genetic Algorithm for Airborne Conflict Resolution

NASA has developed the Autonomous Operations Planner (AOP) airborne decision support tool to explore advanced air traffic control concepts that include delegating separation authority to aircraft. A key element of the AOP is its strategic conflict resolution (CR) algorithm, which must resolve conflicts while maintaining conformance with traffic flow management constraints. While a previous CR algorithm, which focused on broader flight plan optimization objectives as a part of conflict resolution, had successfully been developed, new research has identified the need for resolution routes the users find more acceptable (i.e., simpler and more intuitive). A new CR algorithm is presented that uses a combination of pattern-based maneuvers and a genetic algorithm to achieve these new objectives. Several lateral and vertical maneuver patterns are defined and the application of the genetic algorithm explained. A new approach to defining a conflicted fitness function using estimates of the local conflict region around a conflicted trajectory is also presented. Preliminary performance characteristics of the implemented algorithm are provided.

Vivona, Robert A.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Conflict Alerts for Aircraft Conducting Visual Approaches

It is common for aircraft to conduct visual and instrument final approaches to a single runway or multiple parallel runways. Useful, nonexcessive safety alerts on aircraft conducting visual approaches are helpful to air traffic controllers, though pilots are responsible for separation with the preceding aircraft. A variety of visual approaches to various runway configurations are studied, and a set of safety alert thresholds is proposed. Fast-time simulations with recorded real-world air traffic data of mostly visual approach flights are performed on a prototype tactical separation assurance system for terminal airspace. Alerts are generated -- with both the standard separation thresholds and the proposed safety alert thresholds -- and compared with those from the Conflict Alert (CA) functionality in the Standard Terminal Automation Replacement System (STARS). The results show that the number of Mode-C Intruder alerts generated was reduced 76% as compared to STARS CA. The nuisance alerts generated by assuming visual to be instrument approaches was reduced by 92% when the proposed safety alert thresholds were used and visual approaches were assumed.A set of safety alert thresholds, which allow safety alerts to be provided to the controllers for aircraft conductingvisual approaches to a single runway or multiple parallel runways, has been proposed based on input from SubjectMatter Experts as well as visual approach procedures and common practices. The goal is to maximize the thresholdswithin the guidance of the procedures and common practices and to minimize the number of nuisance alerts and totalnumber of alerts with the support of flight intent information. Tests have been performed using a recently developedprototype tactical separation assurance system for terminal airspace, called Terminal Tactical Separation-AssuredFlight Environment (T-TSAFE). The input was a full day of air traffic data from Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) TRACONwith most arriving flights conducting visual approaches. The results compare favorably with those of the ConflictAlert (CA) functionality of the Standard Terminal Automation Replacement System (STARS).When fast-time simulation experiment was performed using T-TSAFE with all arriving flights assumed to conductinstrument approaches, the expected large number of separation alerts were observed. When compared with STARSCA, the conflict pairs common to both T-TSAFE and STARS CA was only 21% of the total STARS CA alerts. As aresult, the nuisance-alert rate for STARS CA was estimated to be about 70%, which is comparable to a similar previously estimation of 80% nuisance-alert rate for CARTS (Common Automated Radar Terminal System) CA. The Mode-CIntruder (MCI) alerts were also reduced by 76% as compared to STARS CA.Examination of the common conflict pairs between T-TSAFE and STARS CA shows that they are valid separationconflicts with good alert lead times for T-TSAFE. However, many of them would still be considered nuisance alertsif the aircraft were conducting visual approaches. This was confirmed by another visual approach fast-time simulationT-TSAFE experiment, in which all DFW arriving flights were assumed to be on visual approaches and our proposedsafety alert thresholds were used and tested. The result of the experiment showed that the number of non-MCI alertswas less by 92% as compared to the number when all DFW arrivals were assumed to be conducting instrumentapproaches. The common conflict pairs involving aircraft conducting visual approaches to parallel runways werereduced by 93% as well. Thus, the flight intent information and the safety alert thresholds are effective in reducingnuisance alerts.T-TSAFE can thus provide separation and safety conflict alerts seamlessly in the real-world environment of mixedterminal operations with arriving flights of both visual and instrument approaches. Compared with STARS CA, TTSAFEhas fewer false alerts, larger alert lead time, and larger alert thresholds. While the nuisance alerts are reducedsignificantly with the safety alert thresholds, further work is needed to study if the alert lead time for safety alerts issufficient.

Tang, Huabin↗

NASA NTRS1997

Decentralized and Tactical Air Traffic Flow Management

This project dealt with the following topics: 1. Review and description of the existing air traffic flow management system (ATFM) and identification of aspects with potential for improvement. 2. Identification and review of existing models and simulations dealing with all system segments (enroute, terminal area, ground) 3. Formulation of concepts for overall decentralization of the ATFM system, ranging from moderate decentralization to full decentralization 4. Specification of the modifications to the ATFM system required to accommodate each of the alternative concepts. 5. Identification of issues that need to be addressed with regard to: determination of the way the ATFM system would be operating; types of flow management strategies that would be used; and estimation of the effectiveness of ATFM with regard to reducing delay and re-routing costs. 6. Concept evaluation through identification of criteria and methodologies for accommodating the interests of stakeholders and of approaches to optimization of operational procedures for all segments of the ATFM system.

Odoni, Amedeo R.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Decentralized and Tactical Air Traffic Flow Management

Amedeo R. Odoni↗

NASA NTRS2000

Lidar Remote Sensing for Industry and Environment Monitoring

Contents include the following: 1. Keynote paper: Overview of lidar technology for industrial and environmental monitoring in Japan. 2. lidar technology I: NASA's future active remote sensing mission for earth science. Geometrical detector consideration s in laser sensing application (invited paper). 3. Lidar technology II: High-power femtosecond light strings as novel atmospheric probes (invited paper). Design of a compact high-sensitivity aerosol profiling lidar. 4. Lasers for lidars: High-energy 2 microns laser for multiple lidar applications. New submount requirement of conductively cooled laser diodes for lidar applications. 5. Tropospheric aerosols and clouds I: Lidar monitoring of clouds and aerosols at the facility for atmospheric remote sensing (invited paper). Measurement of asian dust by using multiwavelength lidar. Global monitoring of clouds and aerosols using a network of micropulse lidar systems. 6. Troposphere aerosols and clouds II: Scanning lidar measurements of marine aerosol fields at a coastal site in Hawaii. 7. Tropospheric aerosols and clouds III: Formation of ice cloud from asian dust particles in the upper troposphere. Atmospheric boundary layer observation by ground-based lidar at KMITL, Thailand (13 deg N, 100 deg. E). 8. Boundary layer, urban pollution: Studies of the spatial correlation between urban aerosols and local traffic congestion using a slant angle scanning on the research vessel Mirai. 9. Middle atmosphere: Lidar-observed arctic PSC's over Svalbard (invited paper). Sodium temperature lidar measurements of the mesopause region over Syowa Station. 10. Differential absorption lidar (dIAL) and DOAS: Airborne UV DIAL measurements of ozone and aerosols (invited paper). Measurement of water vapor, surface ozone, and ethylene using differential absorption lidar. 12. Space lidar I: Lightweight lidar telescopes for space applications (invited paper). Coherent lidar development for Doppler wind measurement from the International Space Station. 13. Space lidar II: Using coherent Doppler lidar to estimate river discharge. 14. Poster session: Lidar technology, optics for lidar. Laser for lidar. Middle atmosphere observations. Tropospheric observations (aerosols, clouds). Boundary layer, urban pollution. Differential absorption lidar. Doppler lidar. and Space lidar.

Singh, Upendra N.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Investigation Into Transecting Satellites in Future Space Traffic Management Scenarios

The number of satellites expected to populate the near-Earth space environment is set to dramatically increase in the coming decade as new large constellations are approved and deployed. Current strategies for deploying new batches of these satellites often involve launching into an initial orbit, and then performing apogee raising maneuvers to reach a target altitude. Similarly, end-of-life planning for these constellation satellites can consist of de-orbit burns that lower perigee to permit disposal via re-entry. Both the raising and de-orbiting maneuvers can result in the individual satellites traveling in transecting orbits that have the potential to cross other spacecraft trajectories. While individual large constellations may be able to coexist in separate altitude and inclination bands, having thousands of satellites moving between these bands as new satellites are added and old satellites are removed could pose additional collision risks. Similar concerns have been raised regarding the impact that large numbers of university-class CubeSats might have in terms of their overall collision risk, especially as these satellites typically do not have propulsion systems for active maneuvering. To assess the impact that transecting satellites might have on future space traffic management strategies, this study explored a variety of realistic future scenarios using a high-fidelity simulation tool. The model can simulate the orbit of tens of thousands of resident space objects (RSOs) simultaneously, to include active satellites, debris, rocket bodies, or even future hypothetical satellite constellations, using a realistic force model that incorporates non-spherical gravity, atmospheric drag, and solar radiation pressure, as well as station-keeping. The simulation can be customized to accommodate different methods of calculating the probability of collision, as well as the process for determining probability ellipsoids and screening volumes. This makes it possible to replicate, and compare, different processes used by different spacecraft operators and space situational awareness (SSA) providers. As the model is run forward in time, each conjunction event is recorded, allowing for the analysis of statistics and meta-data related to these events, providing insight into the nature and frequency of potential collisions, such as whether are they active or passive objects, what size are the two objects, and who owns the objects (if known). This information makes it possible to characterize how changes to the status quo affect the number and type of conjunctions that occur, as well as the distributional effects on various types of satellite operators. To assess the general risks that transecting satellites might pose for hypothetical future space object environments, approximately 60,000 new large constellation satellites were considered, in addition to the existing catalog of approximately 7800 known resident space objects (RSOs), over a simulation period of one year. The results indicate that the future space environment will introduce a non-linear increase in conjunction events as the number of RSOs also increase. This will require adjustments to spacecraft fuel budgets in order to conduct the avoidance maneuvers necessary to minimize collision risk, both for existing and new satellites. This increase is due in large part to the higher density of RSOs and the overlap between some constellation orbits. Current catalog objects were shown to require three times more ∆V for collision avoidance (CA) maneuvers in the simulated future environment, and some constellation spacecraft were estimated to devote the majority of their annual ∆V to CA. The impact of small satellites was found to be proportional for the current space environment, and actually decreased in terms of percentage for the future scenario, suggesting that small satellites do not pose an outsized collision risk. Lastly, transecting satellites were found to contribute thousands of additional conjunctions outside of their operational orbit, and may require up to an additional 5% in CA maneuver fuel allocation.

conjunction assessment↗

NASA NTRS2012

Advisory Systems Save Time, Fuel for Airlines

Heinz Erzberger never thought the sky was falling, but he knew it could benefit from enhanced traffic control. Throughout the 1990s, Erzberger led a team at Ames Research Center to develop a suite of automated tools to reduce restrictions and improve the efficiency of air traffic control operations. Called CTAS, or Center-TRACON (Terminal Radar Approach Control) Automation System, the software won NASA s Software of the Year award in 1998, and one of the tools in the suite - the traffic management advisor - was adopted by the Federal Aviation Administration and implemented at traffic control centers across the United States. Another one of the tools, Direct-To, has followed a different path. The idea behind Direct-To, explains Erzberger, a senior scientist at Ames, was that airlines could save fuel and money by shortening the routes they flew between take-off and landing. Aircraft are often limited to following established airways comprised of inefficient route segments. The routes are not easily adjusted because neither the pilot nor the aircraft controller can anticipate the constantly changing air traffic situation. To make the routes more direct while in flight, Erzberger came up with an idea for a software algorithm that could automatically examine air traffic in real-time, check to see if a shortcut was available, and then check for conflicts. If there were no conflicts and the shortcut saved more than 1 minute of flight time, the controller could be notified. "I was trying to figure out what goes on in the pilot and controller s minds when they decide to guide the aircraft in a certain way. That resulted in a different kind analysis," Erzberger says. As the engineer s idea went from theory to practice, in 2001, NASA demonstrated Direct-To in the airspace of Dallas-Ft. Worth. Estimations based on the demonstration found the technology was capable of saving 900 flying minutes per day for the aircraft in the test area.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Impact of Total Liberalization of Domestic Air Transport on the Social Welfare and on the Dynamic of Competition: Comparison Between the United States and the European Union

Since the lst of April 1997 date of the implementation of the third package of the liberalization, air transport, within the european Union has become totally liberalized. In the United States the deregulation of domestic air traffic was earlier and faster since it took place in October 1978 after the adoption of the only act of deregulation. This paper, in its first part, deals with the liberalization of the industry of air traffic in the european union. After a comparison with US system based on market demand, fare policy and network restrictions, we present our descriptive results coming from treatments on the OAG data. These results present several aspects such as the evolution of the competitive structure of the intra-european routes, the level of airport dominance and the growth of hub structure. The second part of the paper presents models of entry in the airline industry. As profitability" of route flown explains correctly decisions taken by airlines to serve or not a route, the paper focuses on the specification and the estimation of the determinants of city, pair profitability in the european union. Treatments done on the OAG data show a rapid development of leasing space agreement (partial and total) and code sharing practices between 1995 and 2000 in Europe that's why we differentiate first between the two type of competitive strategy of entry(direct entry and leasing space agreement) and second between the competitive strategy of entry and the alliance strategy of code sharing. So the estimation of model will be able to answer the question if the european air transport market is contestable and in case not to see if the decision of entry is more directed by the level of airport dominance (as in the domestic United States market)or essentially by the competitive structure of the routes. We try to explain the nature of entry(directleasing or code sharing) by the different levels of these two determinants.

Zbidi, Karim↗

NASA NTRS1983

The new space transportation begins today

It is pointed out that increasing space capabilities and the inevitable industrialization of space will place an even greater traffic demand on the Space Shuttle than first projected. The Shuttle will be upgraded by evolutionary steps, and then a new system will be developed to replace it. System-level studies aimed at post-2000 vehicles have been conducted by NASA under the name Future Space Transportation System (FSTS). FSTS began in October 1981 with the objective to define a launch-vehicle concept which improves space transportation capabilities and economics. A second aim was related to the projection of technology requirements beyond previous studies, especially in the areas of structures, propellant tankage, thermal protection, aerothermodynamics and operation. It has been estimated that a fully reusable two-stage system could deliver a payload of 150,000 lb, more than twice the payload of the Space Shuttle for only a slight increase in size and weight.

Freeman, D. C., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Satellite-based Estimates of Ambient Air Pollution and Global Variations in Childhood Asthma Prevalence

Background: The effect of ambient air pollution on global variations and trends in asthma prevalence is unclear. Objectives: Our goal was to investigate community-level associations between asthma prevalence data from the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) and satellite-based estimates of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and modelled estimates of ozone. Methods: We assigned satellite-based estimates of PM2.5 and NO2 at a spatial resolution of 0.1deg × 0.1deg and modeled estimates of ozone at a resolution of 1deg × 1deg to 183 ISAAC centers. We used center-level prevalence of severe asthma as the outcome and multilevel models to adjust for gross national income (GNI) and center- and country-level sex, climate, and population density. We examined associations (adjusting for GNI) between air pollution and asthma prevalence over time in centers with data from ISAAC Phase One (mid-1900s) and Phase Three (2001-2003). Results: For the 13- to 14-year age group (128 centers in 28 countries), the estimated average within-country change in center-level asthma prevalence per 100 children per 10% increase in center-level PM2.5 and NO2 was -0.043 [95% confidence interval (CI): -0.139, 0.053] and 0.017 (95% CI: -0.030, 0.064) respectively. For ozone the estimated change in prevalence per parts per billion by volume was -0.116 (95% CI: -0.234, 0.001). Equivalent results for the 6- to 7-year age group (83 centers in 20 countries), though slightly different, were not significantly positive. For the 13- to 14-year age group, change in center-level asthma prevalence over time per 100 children per 10% increase in PM2.5 from Phase One to Phase Three was -0.139 (95% CI: -0.347, 0.068). The corresponding association with ozone (per ppbV) was -0.171 (95% CI: -0.275, -0.067). Conclusion: In contrast to reports from within-community studies of individuals exposed to traffic pollution, we did not find evidence of a positive association between ambient air pollution and asthma prevalence as measured at the community level.

Air pollution↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Concept for Flexible Operations and Optimized Traffic into Metroplex Regions

A "Flexible Flight Operations" concept for airport metroplexes was studied. A flexible flight is one whose destination airport is not assigned until a threshold is reached near the arrival area at which time the runway which reduces overall delay is assigned. The concept seeks to increase throughput by exploiting flexibility. The quantification of best-case benefits from the concept was pursued to establish whether concept research is warranted. Findings indicate that indeed the concept has potential for significant reductions in delay (and cost due to delay) in the N90 (NY/NJ) and SCT (Southern California) metroplexes. Delay reductions of nearly 26% are possible in N90 when 30% of the commercial airline flights are flexible (smartly selected by their low probability of connecting passengers); nearly 40% delay reduction is found when 50% of the flights are flexible. In the SCT metroplex, delay reductions estimates are greater. Greater reductions result at SCT since it is less constrained currently than N90, providing "more room" to take advantage of flexibility. Using the flexible operations concept for on-demand/air taxi and General Aviation flights were found to be beneficial at NY/NJ, indicating the flexible operations concepts may be useful to wide variety of users..

DeLaurentis, Daniel↗

NASA NTRS1996

Immobile Robots: AI in the New Millennium

A new generation of sensor rich, massively distributed, autonomous systems are being developed that have the potential for profound social, environmental, and economic change. These include networked building energy systems, autonomous space probes, chemical plant control systems, satellite constellations for remote ecosystem monitoring, power grids, biosphere-like life support systems, and reconfigurable traffic systems, to highlight but a few. To achieve high performance, these immobile robots (or immobots) will need to develop sophisticated regulatory and immune systems that accurately and robustly control their complex internal functions. To accomplish this, immobots will exploit a vast nervous system of sensors to model themselves and their environment on a grand scale. They will use these models to dramatically reconfigure themselves in order to survive decades of autonomous operations. Achieving these large scale modeling and configuration tasks will require a tight coupling between the higher level coordination function provided by symbolic reasoning, and the lower level autonomic processes of adaptive estimation and control. To be economically viable they will need to be programmable purely through high level compositional models. Self modeling and self configuration, coordinating autonomic functions through symbolic reasoning, and compositional, model-based programming are the three key elements of a model-based autonomous systems architecture that is taking us into the New Millennium.

Williams, Brian C.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Measurements of the growth of the ice budget in a persisting contrail.

An experiment was conducted with the NCAR Sabreliner to measure the ice water content (IWC) and the total ice budget within its contrail. Particle size distributions were measured with an optical-array particle size spectrometer. The experiment was performed in a region of the atmosphere void of natural ice crystals (cirrus) but estimated to be above ice saturation and favorable to ice crystal growth. The IWC measured was found to be in excess of 0.1 g/cu m near the contrail axis with average values of a few hundredths of a gram throughout the contrail. The measured water mass within the contrail was found to be four orders of magnitude greater than that computed as a combustion product. Average crystal sizes of nearly 0.5 mm allow for a transfer of moisture at generation level to much lower levels before reevaporation. Because of the magnitude of the measured effect and its believed frequent occurrence, the overall effect of subtropopause jet traffic is likely to lower the water abundance at the most traveled levels.

Knollenberg, R. G.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Model Calculations of the Impact of NO(x) from Air Traffic, Lightning and Surface Emissions, Compared with Measurements

The impact of NO(x) from aircraft emissions, lightning and surface contributions on atmospheric nitrogen oxides and ozone has been investigated with the three-dimensional global chemistry transport model TM3 by partitioning the nitrogen oxides and ozone according to source category. The results have been compared with POLINAT II and SONEX airborne measurements in the North Atlantic flight corridor in 1997. Various cases have been investigated: measurements during a stagnant anti-cyclone and an almost cut-off low, both with expected high aircraft contributions, a southward bound flight with an expected strong flight corridor gradient and lightning contributions in the South, and a transatlantic flight with expected boundary layer pollution near the U.S. coast. The agreement between modeled results and measurements is reasonably good for NO and ozone. Also, the calculated impact of the three defined sources were consistent with the estimated exposure of the sampled air to these sources, obtained by specialized back-trajectory model products.

Meijer, E. W.↗