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DOE OSTI2025

Resilience of the Electric Grid Through Trustable IoT-Coordinated Assets

The electricity grid has evolved from a physical system to a cyberphysical system with digital devices that perform measurement, control, communication, computation, and actuation. The increased penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) including renewable generation, flexible loads, and storage provides extraordinary opportunities for improvements in efficiency and sustainability. However, they can introduce new vulnerabilities in the form of cyberattacks, which can cause significant challenges in ensuring grid resilience. We propose a framework in this paper for achieving grid resilience through suitably coordinated assets including a network of Internet of Things devices. A local electricity market is proposed to identify trustable assets and carry out this coordination. Situational Awareness (SA) of locally available DERs with the ability to inject power or reduce consumption is enabled by the market, together with a monitoring procedure for their trustability and commitment. With this SA, we show that a variety of cyberattacks can be mitigated using local trustable resources without stressing the bulk grid. Multiple demonstrations are carried out using a high-fidelity cosimulation platform, real-time hardware-in-the-loop validation, and a utility-friendly simulator.

distributed energy resources↗

NASA NTRS1979

Vulnerability of Quick Disconnect Connectors to Carbon Fibers

Unprotected quick disconnect electrical connectors were exposed to fibers of 3mm, 7mm, and 12mm lengths. The average exposure to failure was determined. Results indicate that when the fiber length divided by the airgap is less than one, multiple fibers are required to bridge the gap, and the exposure time to failure rises rapidly.

Meyers, J. A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stealthy Cyber Anomaly Detection On Large Noisy Multi-material 3D Printer Datasets Using Probabilistic Models

As Additive Layer Manufacturing (ALM) becomes pervasive in industry, its applications in safety critical component manufacturing are being explored and adopted. However, ALM's reliance on embedded computing renders it vulnerable to tampering through cyber-attacks. Sensor instrumentation of ALM devices allows for rigorous process and security monitoring, but also results in a massive volume of noisy data for each run. As such, in-situ, near-real-time anomaly detection is very challenging. The ideal algorithm for this context is simple, computationally efficient, minimizes false positives, and is accurate enough to resolve small deviations. In this paper, we present a probabilistic-model-based approach to address this challenge. To test our approach, we analyze current measurements from a polymer composite 3D printer during emulated tampering attacks. Our results show that our approach can consistently and efficiently locate small changes in the presence of substantial operational noise.

Yoginath, Srikanth↗

DOE OSTI2025

Infrastructure-Based Cooperative Perception at a Traffic Intersection: Overview and Challenges

Traffic intersections are crucial and challenging nodes in transportation networks where multiple lanes of vehicles and pedestrians converge. About one-quarter of traffic fatalities and about one-half of all traffic injuries in the United States happen at traffic intersections . Effective management of these intersections is important to ensure safety and efficiency of all users - vehicles, pedestrians, cyclists, and vulnerable road users (VRUs). With advancements in sensor perception technologies such as radar, light detection and ranging (lidar), and cameras, traffic intersections are developing into dynamic and data-rich environments. By using these data to create a real-time digital twin, we can enable real-time data-driven decision making and a range of applications such as sharing perception information to connected vehicles (CVs) and connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs), safety affirmative signaling, and curb optimizing to improve efficiency and enhance safety.This paper presents an overview of the concept and examines the challenges involved in implementing an infrastructure-based cooperative perception engine at a traffic intersection. In addition to outlining the physical components, this study also addresses important challenges involved in a multi-sensor system. We present results from deploying the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Infrastructure Perception and Control (IPC) mobile trailer at a traffic intersection in the city of Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA that employed multiple radars and lidars to capture the data. This study provides necessary practical learning for the Cooperative Driving Automation (CDA) and traffic engineering communities for next-generation infrastructure-based cooperative perception that promises improvements in signal control for optimized traffic flow, among other applications, and documents findings for ongoing research and development efforts in other areas.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUT↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multi-Level Impacts of Extreme Climate-Related Events on Food Supply Chain: Idaho Potato's Case Study

Background: The world is experiencing frequent extreme weather events like droughts, floods, snowstorms, and shifting of seasons due to climate change. Increasing frequencies and severity of these extreme weather events threaten food security because agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Higher temperature reduces overall yields of the desirable crops but proliferates weeds and harmful pests. Current data shows that every year U.S. farmers spend more than 11 billion USD to fight weeds and this number is expected to rise in the coming years due to climate change. Due to droughts, the water required for irrigation is becoming scarcer. Since many areas are becoming climatically unusable for crop production, the amount of farmland area is shrinking rapidly. In addition, changes in precipitation patterns are causing crop failures and negatively impacting expected yields. In this study, we investigated how different extreme climate events impact different stages of a food supply chain. Approach: As a case study, we chose Idaho’s potato supply chain (SC). Idaho is the top potato producing state in the U.S. and contributes around 30% of the nation’s potato production. Using the agent-based modeling (ABM) approach, we developed a multi-echelon potato supply chain computer simulation model with six types of agents – seed producers, farmers, shippers, processors, retailers, and logistics companies. In addition to the baseline scenario, we developed two additional climate-related disruption events – drought and snowstorm. We investigated how each of these disruption events impacts different stakeholders across the supply chain in terms of revenue and some other key performance metrics such as lead time, food waste, number of delayed orders, and order fulfillment rate. Results: Extreme climate events not only impact the growers but there is also cascading ripple effects downstream of the supply chain. The methodology developed in this study could be applied to other food and agricultural SC to understand the vulnerabilities of the different links. The findings would potentially help to adopt new policies for the well-being of the overall SC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Comment on Comment on “Anomalous structural recovery in the near glass transition range in a polymer glass: Data revisited in light of temperature variability in vacuum oven‐based experiments”*

Abstract Cangialosi, Alegría, and Colmenero have made a comment on a paper of ours [Polym. Eng. Sci. 2022:1–13], in which we discussed the concern that the enthalpy recovery data reported by Cangialosi and co‐workers [Phys. Rev. Lett. 2013;111(9):095701] for polystyrene aged up to 15 K below glass transition temperature was anomalous and contradicted existing experimental results from the literature over a similar range of aging conditions. Their response shifts the focus away from the raised questions about their experimental results and attempts to invalidate the data that we cited in support of our argument. Here we respond to the comment and add additional analysis that suggests the structural recovery response of glassy materials exhibits smooth behavior over the full range of measurements, up to 7 or 8 logarithmic decades. We do this by referring to the work on the intrinsic isotherm down‐jump and memory responses of poly(vinyl acetate) between 40°C and 15°C over six logarithmic decades by Kovacs [Fortsch. Hochpolym. Fo. 1963;3(1/2):394–508], the small‐strain tensile creep of poly(vinyl chloride) quenched from 90°C to 40°C (approximately 40°C below T g ) over seven logarithmic decades from Struik [Polym Eng. Sci., 1977;17:165–173], and the volume recovery behavior for aging times up to 3 months in a temperature range between 95°C and −50°C by Greiner and Schwarzl [Rheol. Acta. 1984;23(4):378–395]. We also add discussion that an isothermal aging procedure using a vacuum oven is highly vulnerable to temperature errors due to the problem of good temperature control when the heat transfer mechanism is primarily radiative.

Jin, Shuang↗

DOE OSTI2024

Emergency department visits in California associated with wildfire PM 2.5 : differing risk across individuals and communities

The threats to human health from wildfires and wildfire smoke (WFS) in the United States (US) are increasing due to continued climate change. A growing body of literature has documented important adverse health effects of WFS exposure, but there is insufficient evidence regarding how risk related to WFS exposure varies across individual or community level characteristics. To address this evidence gap, we utilized a large nationwide database of healthcare utilization claims for emergency department (ED) visits in California across multiple wildfire seasons (May through November, 2012–2019) and quantified the health impacts of fine particulate matter <2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) air pollution attributable to WFS, overall and among subgroups of the population. We aggregated daily counts of ED visits to the level of the Zip Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA) and used a time-stratified case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the association between WFS and relative risk of ED visits. We further assessed how the association with WFS varied across subgroups defined by age, race, social vulnerability, and residential air conditioning (AC) prevalence. Over a 7 day period, PM 2.5 from WFS was associated with elevated risk of ED visits for all causes (1.04% (0.32%, 1.71%)), non-accidental causes (2.93% (2.16%, 3.70%)), and respiratory disease (15.17% (12.86%, 17.52%)), but not with ED visits for cardiovascular diseases (1.06% (–1.88%, 4.08%)). Analysis across subgroups revealed potential differences in susceptibility by age, race, and AC prevalence, but not across subgroups defined by ZCTA-level Social Vulnerability Index scores. These results suggest that PM 2.5 from WFS is associated with higher rates of all cause, non-accidental, and respiratory ED visits with important heterogeneity across certain subgroups. Notably, lower availability of residential AC was associated with higher health risks related to wildfire activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Effect of Agricultural Growing Season Change on Market Prices in Africa

Local agricultural production is a key element of food security in many agricultural countries in Africa. Climate change and variability is likely to adversely affect these countries, particularly as they affect the ability of smallholder farmers to raise enough food to feed themselves. Seasonality influences farmers' decisions about when to sow and harvest, and ultimately the success or failure of their crops. At a 2009 conference in the United Kingdom hosted by the Institute of Development Studies, Jennings and Magrath (2009) described farmer reports from East Asia, South Asia, Southern Africa, East Africa and Latin America. Farmers indicate significant changes in the timing of rainy seasons and the pattern of rains within seasons, including: More erratic rainfall, coming at unexpected times in and out of season; Extreme storms and unusually intense rainfall are punctuated by longer dry spells within the rainy season; Increasing uncertainty as to the start of rainy seasons in many areas; Short or transitional second rainy seasons are becoming stronger than normal or are disappearing altogether. These farmer perceptions of change are striking in that they are geographically widespread and are remarkably consistent across diverse regions (Jennings and Magrath, 2009). The impact of these changes on farmers with small plots and few resources is large. Farming is becoming riskier because of heat stress, lack of water, pests and diseases that interact with ongoing pressures on natural resources. Lack of predictability in the start and length of the growing season affects the ability of farmers to invest in appropriate fertilizer levels or improved, high yielding varieties. These changes occur at the same time as the demand for food is rising and is projected to continue to rise for the next fifty years (IAASTD, 2008). Long-term data records derived from satellite remote sensing can be used to verify these reports, providing necessary analysis and documentation required to plan effective adaptation strategies. Remote sensing data can also provide some understanding of the spatial extent of these changes and whether they are likely to continue. Given the agricultural nature of most economies on the African continent, agricultural production continues to be a critical determinant of both food security and economic growth (Funk and Brown, 2009). Crop phenological parameters, such as the start and end of the growing season, the total length of the growing season, and the rate of greening and senescence are important for planning crop management, crop diversification, and intensification. The World Food Summit of 1996 defined food security as: "when all people at all times have access to sufficient, safe, nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life". Food security roughly depends on three factors: 1) availability of food; 2) access to food and 3) appropriate use of food, as well as adequate water and sanitation. The first factor is dependent on growing conditions and weather and climate. In a previous paper we have investigated this factor by evaluating the effect of large scale climate oscillation on land surface phenology (Brown et al., 2010). We found that all areas in Africa are significantly affected by at least one type of large scale climate oscillations and concluded that these somewhat predictable oscillations could perhaps be used to forecast agricultural production. In addition, we have evaluated changes in agricultural land surface phenology over time (Brown et al., 2012). We found that land surface phenology models, which link large-scale vegetation indices with accumulated humidity, could successfully predict agricultural productivity in several countries around the world. In this chapter we are interested in the effect of variability in peak timing of the growing season, or phenology, on the second factor of food security, food access. In this chapter we want to determine if there is a link between market prices and land surface phenology and to determine which markets are vulnerable to land surface phenology changes and variability and which market prices are not correlated.

Prices↗

NASA NTRS2011

Wide-Field Optic for Autonomous Acquisition of Laser Link

An innovation reported in Two-Camera Acquisition and Tracking of a Flying Target, NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 32, No. 8 (August 2008), p. 20, used a commercial fish-eye lens and an electronic imaging camera for initially locating objects with subsequent handover to an actuated narrow-field camera. But this operated against a dark-sky background. An improved solution involves an optical design based on custom optical components for the wide-field optical system that directly addresses the key limitations in acquiring a laser signal from a moving source such as an aircraft or a spacecraft. The first challenge was to increase the light collection entrance aperture diameter, which was approximately 1 mm in the first prototype. The new design presented here increases this entrance aperture diameter to 4.2 mm, which is equivalent to a more than 16 times larger collection area. One of the trades made in realizing this improvement was to restrict the field-of-view to +80 deg. elevation and 360 azimuth. This trade stems from practical considerations where laser beam propagation over the excessively high air mass, which is in the line of sight (LOS) at low elevation angles, results in vulnerability to severe atmospheric turbulence and attenuation. An additional benefit of the new design is that the large entrance aperture is maintained even at large off-axis angles when the optic is pointed at zenith. The second critical limitation for implementing spectral filtering in the design was tackled by collimating the light prior to focusing it onto the focal plane. This allows the placement of the narrow spectral filter in the collimated portion of the beam. For the narrow band spectral filter to function properly, it is necessary to adequately control the range of incident angles at which received light intercepts the filter. When this angle is restricted via collimation, narrower spectral filtering can be implemented. The collimated beam (and the filter) must be relatively large to reduce the incident angle down to only a few degrees. In the presented embodiment, the filter diameter is more than ten times larger than the entrance aperture. Specifically, the filter has a clear aperture of about 51 mm. The optical design is refractive, and is comprised of nine custom refractive elements and an interference filter. The restricted maximum angle through the narrow-band filter ensures the efficient use of a 2-nm noise equivalent bandwidth spectral width optical filter at low elevation angles (where the range is longest), at the expense of less efficiency for high elevations, which can be tolerated because the range at high elevation angles is shorter. The image circle is 12 mm in diameter, mapped to 80 x 360 of sky, centered on the zenith.

Page, Norman A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Outage Forecast-Based Preventative Scheduling Model for Distribution System Resilience Enhancement

Distribution system resilience enhancement is an important topic to ensure customers have access to power supply during extreme events. In fact, certain weather-related extreme events can be predicted ahead of time. Therefore, it is important to investigate how to predict grid outages using extreme weather forecasts, and how outage predictions can be incorporated into distribution system resilience enhancement. In this paper, a preventative scheduling model for distribution systems is proposed. The model targets at allocating resources, especially mobile responsive resources such as mobile backup generators and mobile energy storage systems, to prepare for an extreme event in the day-ahead context. To achieve efficient resource allocation and scheduling, a machine learning-based outage prediction module is developed to predict vulnerable or risky segments of the distribution system based on historical operating records and extreme weather event forecast. By integrating the outage prediction results into the scheduling model, optimal resource allocation can be derived to help distribution systems prepare for an upcoming event and improve resilience performance. A real distribution feeder in North Carolina, U.S. is used in the case study to validate the proposed approach.

distributed energy resources↗

NASA NTRS2010

Verification Challenges of Dynamic Testing of Space Flight Hardware

The Six Degree-of-Freedom Dynamic Test System (SDTS) is a test facility at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas for performing dynamic verification of space structures and hardware. Some examples of past and current tests include the verification of on-orbit robotic inspection systems, space vehicle assembly procedures and docking/berthing systems. The facility is able to integrate a dynamic simulation of on-orbit spacecraft mating or demating using flight-like mechanical interface hardware. A force moment sensor is utilized for input to the simulation during the contact phase, thus simulating the contact dynamics. While the verification of flight hardware presents many unique challenges, one particular area of interest is with respect to the use of external measurement systems to ensure accurate feedback of dynamic contact. There are many commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) measurement systems available on the market, and the test facility measurement systems have evolved over time to include two separate COTS systems. The first system incorporates infra-red sensing cameras, while the second system employs a laser interferometer to determine position and orientation data. The specific technical challenges with the measurement systems in a large dynamic environment include changing thermal and humidity levels, operational area and measurement volume, dynamic tracking, and data synchronization. The facility is located in an expansive high-bay area that is occasionally exposed to outside temperature when large retractable doors at each end of the building are opened. The laser interferometer system, in particular, is vulnerable to the environmental changes in the building. The operational area of the test facility itself is sizeable, ranging from seven meters wide and five meters deep to as much as seven meters high. Both facility measurement systems have desirable measurement volumes and the accuracies vary within the respective volumes. In addition, because this is a dynamic facility with a moving test bed, direct line-of-sight may not be available at all times between the measurement sensors and the tracking targets. Finally, the feedback data from the active test bed along with the two external measurement systems must be synchronized to allow for data correlation. To ensure the desired accuracy and resolution of these systems, calibration of the systems must be performed regularly. New innovations in sensor technology itself are periodically incorporated into the facility s overall measurement scheme. In addressing the challenges of the measurement systems, the facility is able to provide essential position and orientation data to verify the dynamic performance of space flight hardware.

Winnitoy, Susan↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evaluation of top-down and bottom-up global terrestrial respiration estimates and their mismatch with model simulations

Terrestrial respiration is one of the most poorly understood processes in the global carbon cycle, making respiration predictions uncertain. However, expanding observations and machine learning approaches have led to a proliferation of estimates. We compiled total ecosystem and heterotrophic respiration estimates derived from top-down atmospheric inversions and bottom-up upscaling of ecosystem observations and compared them with dynamic vegetation models (DGVM) simulations over the 1980-2020 period. Our analysis revealed a convergence in mean annual global total ecosystem respiration estimates between top-down 97.1 (± SD 6.8) PgC yr-1 and bottom-up 98.5 (+/-13.4) PgC yr-1, which were both significantly lower than the ensemble mean from DGVMs estimates 133.7 (±4.7) PgC yr-1. We also found similar temporal trends between top-down estimates with a mean of 0.075 (±0.05) PgC yr-2, and bottom-up estimates of 0.05 (±0.05) PgC yr-2, which were 5 to 7 times smaller than the ensemble mean trend of 0.34 PgC yr-2 simulated by DGVMs. Global heterotrophic respiration showed much less agreement, ranging from top-down estimates of 42.7 (±4.0) PgC yr-1 to bottom-up estimates of 51.5 (±4.0) PgC yr-1 and a significantly larger ensemble model mean estimate of 60.8 PgC yr-1 (±1.9). The temporal trends in observation-based bottom-up estimates of heterotrophic respiration of 0.03 PgC yr-2 were five times lower than the model ensemble mean 0.15 PgC yr-2. Large regional disagreements in heterotrophic respiration estimates and simulations were evident in tropical and boreal latitudes. Therefore, improved regional and heterotrophic respiration estimates are necessary to reduce uncertainties regarding the future vulnerability of soil carbon.

Ballantyne, Ashley↗

DOE OSTI2022

US Department of Energy, Office of Science High Performance Computing Facility Operational Assessment 2021: Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility

Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL’s) Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) continues to surpass its operational target goals of supporting users; delivering fast, reliable computational ecosystems; creating innovative solutions for high-performance computing (HPC) needs; contributing to the community to build the next generation HPC workforce, and managing risks, safety, and security associated with operating some of the most powerful computers in the world. The results can be seen in the cutting-edge science conducted by users and the praise from the research community. Calendar year (CY) 2021 saw continued excellence in research supported by the OLCF’s leadership-class computing resources, including Summit (the nation’s most powerful supercomputer), the global scratch file system Alpine, the Scalable Protected Infrastructure (SPI), the Exploratory Visualization Environment for Research in Science and Technology (EVEREST), and the archival mass-storage resource High-Performance Storage System (HPSS). While maintaining access and exceptional user support for Summit, the OLCF continued to make progress on the installation and deployment of Frontier, which will be the nation’s first exascale system when it comes online at the start of CY 2023. Users have already begun running and optimizing scientific codes on Crusher, the OLCF test and development system equipped with Frontier’s architecture. Throughout the year, the OLCF maintained a strong culture of operational excellence, including risk management, workplace safety, and cybersecurity. The OLCF’s rigorous risk management strategy anticipated and mitigated risks, and at this time there are no high-priority operational risks. Similarly, ORNL and the OLCF were committed to operating under the US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) safety regulations that ensure a safe workplace. Technical staff tracked and monitored existing threats and vulnerabilities within the OLCF while continually developing tools and practices to enhance operations without increasing the facility’s risk. CY 2021 was filled with outstanding results and accomplishments, including a very high rating from users on overall satisfaction for the eighth consecutive year; a tremendous number of node hours delivered to 1,671 researchers on Summit; and the successful delivery of the allocation split of roughly 60%, 20%, and 20% of core-hours offered for the Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (INCITE), Advanced Scientific Computing Research Leadership Computing Challenge (ALCC), and Director’s Discretionary (DD) programs, respectively (Section 2). COVID-19 research remained a focus in 2021, and the ALCC and DD programs allocated over 1 million Summit hours to the COVID-19 High Performance Computing Consortium. These accomplishments, coupled with the high utilization rates (i.e., overall and capability usage), represent the fulfillment of the promise of leadership class machines: efficient facilitation of leadership-class computational applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2017

Climate Limits Across Space and Time on European Forest Structure

The impact climate has on forests has been extensively studied. However, the large scale effect climate has on forest structures, such as average diameters, heights and basal area are understudied in a spatially explicit manner. The limits, tipping points and thresholds that climate places on forest structures dictate the services a forest may provide, the vulnerability of a forest to mortality and the potential value of the timber there within. The majority of current research either investigates climate impacts on forest pools and fluxes, on a tree physiological scale or on case studies that are used to extrapolate results and potential impacts. A spatially explicit study on how climate affects forest structure over a large region would give valuable information to stakeholders who are more concerned with ecosystem services that cannot be described by pools and fluxes but require spatially explicit information - such as biodiversity, habitat suitability, and market values. In this study, we quantified the limits that climate (maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation) places on 3 forest structures, diameter at breast height, height, and basal area throughout Europe. Our results show clear climatic zones of high and low upper limits for each forest structure variable studied. We also spatially analyzed how climate restricts the potential bio-physical upper limits and creates tipping points of each forest structure variable and which climate factors are most limiting. Further, we demonstrated how the climate change has affected 8 individual forests across Europe and then the continent as a whole. We find that diameter, height and basal area are limited by climate in different ways and that areas may have high upper limits in one structure and low upper limits in another limited by different climate variables. We also found that even though individual forests may have increased their potential upper limit forest structure values, European forests as a whole have lost, on average, 5.0%, 1.7% and 6.5% in potential mean forest diameter, height and basal area, respectively.

Moreno, Adam La Salle↗

NASA NTRS2022

Estimating Tropical Cyclone Threats to Floating Rigs in the Gulf of Mexico

Offshore drilling operations in the Gulf of Mexico are particularly vulnerable during hurricane season. When a weather threat arises, a decision to evacuate the rig and/or move to a safe location may need to be made. Securing the well, evacuating, and/or moving to a safe location can take a considerable amount of time. This transition time is called T-time. T-time is not only rig dependent, but also depends on the activity being performed at the time of the threat. For these reasons, it is important to assess tropical cyclone threats and the estimated time it will take the storm to reach the rig location from the time it is first detected. The objective of this study is to use 50 years of cyclone history from a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) database, the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) to estimate cyclone threats at any location in the Gulf of Mexico. The cyclone threat is estimated based on the rig location as well as the start date and duration of the offshore activity. By threat, it is meant the likelihood that a specific location with an associated offshore activity lies within the forecasted track cone and storm size of the upcoming cyclone. Three representative rig locations in the Gulf of Mexico were selected as assessment sites to evaluate the threat of incoming cyclones for different T-times. To conduct this tropical cyclone study, an Excel spreadsheet tool was developed to automate the analysis of the tropical cyclone data. The spreadsheet tool allows the user to input any location (i.e., longitude and latitude) in the Gulf of Mexico and displays a list of historical cyclones that have passed within 150 nautical miles of that location during the activity period selected by the user. In addition, the tool allows the user to input any T-time to assess the threat of cyclones that would not provide adequate time to secure the well, evacuate, and/or move to a safe location.

Offshore Oil Drilling↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating and Countering the Insider Threat to the Radioactive Source Supply Chain

The modern supply chain is a global enterprise and little drove this home more than the global COVID-19 pandemic which sent economic shockwaves throughout the world. Many goods became scarce, as products were delayed, in limited supply, or simply not available. The suddenly diminished supply collided with still high demand and led to greatly increased costs. This was particularly true for the radioactive source supply chain. The pandemic introduced extensive delays for construction projects, slowed the transport of radiological materials to facilities, interrupted treatment deliveries, and impaired the mobility of contractors across the industry. All of these concerns not only adversely affected the economy, but also impacted the safety and security of radiological material, potentially raising national security concerns. The vulnerability of the supply chain, a critical element in an increasingly interconnected world, was exposed. One example that challenged the adaptive capacity of the overall supply chain is the Ever Given container ship, which became stuck in the Suez Canal in 2020. This accident immediately shut down shipments that accounted for 12% of global trade, with long-term impacts estimated to be much larger. Developing the ability to anticipate and react in real-time to sudden changes has quickly become a necessity, particularly in industries that deal with the transport of hazardous material. The reaction to these dramatic incidents was to largely focus attention and resources on protecting the supply chain from external threats. However, the threat to the radioactive material supply chain from insiders intimately involved in the process may be even greater and remains a blind spot that requires increased attention. Recent events revealed the blueprint for targeting and disrupting that supply chain, so the potential for a malicious insider—or a manipulated, unwitting insider—to take advantage of this vulnerability is elevated, creating security concerns for radiological industries. This paper examines and analyzes the potential insider threat to the radioactive source supply chain and recommends steps to take to counter this possibility.

Kinney, Justin↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cybersecurity Challenges in Low-Inertia Power-Electronics-Dominated Grids

Here, the low inertia characteristics of the power electronics dominated grid (PEDG) introduces challenges while restoring voltage and frequency to their nominal values. These stability challenges create new cybersecurity vulnerabilities that are not thoroughly discussed in the literature. Cyber events such as false data injection (FDI), denial of service (DoS), man-in-the-middle attacks, stealthy attacks, and advanced persistent threats target PEDG to disrupt grid stability or gain financial benefits. The low inertia of PEDG (< 2s) compared to traditional grids (~10s) exacerbates these vulnerabilities. In response to stealthy attacks on state variables that supervisory layers cannot detect until significant harm occurs, the low inertia characteristics of PEDG offer substantial stealthy attack surfaces. To counteract such threats, PEDG must be equipped with ultra-fast real-time anomaly detection system and trajectory prediction mechanism to achieve effective cyberattack resiliency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1999

Sustained Partial Sleep Deprivation: Effects on Immune Modulation and Growth Factors

The vulnerability to medical emergencies is greatest in space where there are real limits to the availability or effectiveness of ground based assistance. Moreover, astronaut safety and health maintenance will be of increasing importance as we venture out into space for extended periods of time. It is therefore critical to understand the mechanisms of the regulatory physiology of homeostatic systems (sleep, circadian, neuroendocrine, fluid and nutritional balance) and the key roles played in adaptation. This synergy project has combined aims of the "Human Performance Factors, Sleep and Chronobiology Team"; the "Immunology, Infection and Hematology Team"; and the "Muscle Alterations and Atrophy Team", to broadly address the effects of long term sleep reduction, as is frequently encountered in space exploration, on neuroendocrine, neuroimmune and circulating growth factors. Astronaut sleep is frequently curtailed to averages of between 4- 6.5 hours per night. There is evidence that this amount of sleep is inadequate for maintaining optimal daytime functioning. However, there is a lack of information concerning the effects of chronic sleep restriction, or reduction, on regulatory physiology in general, and there have been no controlled studies of the cumulative effects of chronic sleep reduction on neuroendocrine and neuroimmune parameters. This synergy project represents a pilot study designed to characterize the effects of chronic partial sleep deprivation (PSD) on neuroendocrine, neuroimmune and growth factors. This project draws its subjects from two (of 18) conditions of the larger NSBRI project, "Countermeasures to Neurobehavioral Deficits from Cumulative Partial Sleep Deprivation During Space Flight", one of the projects on the "Human Performance Factors, Sleep and Chronobiology Team ". For the purposes of this study, to investigate the effects of chronic sleep loss on neuroendocrine and neuroimmune function, we have focused on the two extreme sleep conditions from this larger study: a 4.2 hour per night condition, and a 8.2 hour per night condition. During space flight, muscle mass and bone density are reduced, apparently due to loss of GH and IGF-I, associated with microgravity. Since >70% of growth hormone (GH) is secreted at night in normal adults, we hypothesized that the chronic sleep restriction to 4 hours per night would reduce GH levels as measured in the periphery. In this synergy project, in collaboration with the "Muscle Alterations and Atrophy Team ", we are measuring insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) in peripheral circulation to test the prediction that it will be reduced by chronic sleep restriction. In addition to stress modulation of immune function, recent research suggests that sleep is also involved. While we all have the common experience of being sleepy when suffering from infection, and being susceptible to infection when not getting enough sleep, the mechanisms involved in this process are not understood and until recently have gone largely overlooked. We believe that the immune function changes seen in spaceflight may also be related to the cumulative effects of sleep loss. Moreover, in space flight, the possibility of compromised immune function or of the reactivation of latent viruses are serious potential hazards for the success of long term missions. Confined living conditions, reduced sleep, altered diet and stress are all factors that may compromise immune function, thereby increasing the risks of developing and transmitting disease. Medical complications, which would not pose serious problems on earth, may be disastrous if they emerged in space.

Mullington, Janet M.↗