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DOE OSTI2026

Towards the Ultimate Strength of Medium‐Entropy Alloys Through Pulsed Lasers

The tensile strength of metals at extreme strain rates is a key predictor of their performance in ballistic and structural impact applications. An important experimental method to reach these extreme strain rates is the use of high-amplitude, short-duration pulsed lasers. The Jupiter Laser Facility at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory enabled probing for the first time the mechanical response of several promising High Entropy Alloys at times on the order of nanoseconds (strain rates of ∼10 7 and ∼10 9 s −1 ). The measured strength is in the range of 6 to 10 GPa, ten times the quasistatic value. The mechanisms of plastic deformation and failure were identified and quantified through analysis and molecular dynamics simulation. The reflected wave amplitudes, obtained by VISAR, were used to determine the tensile (spall) stress. The high tensile strength obtained is due to two factors: the strain-rate dependence of plastic flow and the kinetics of void nucleation, growth, and coalescence. The experimental results are compared with an analytical prediction considering both grain-interior and grain-boundary void initiation. Molecular dynamics simulations, conducted at strain rates of 10 8 and 10 9 s −1 , rationalize the experimental results. In conclusion, they provide valuable information about the process of failure evolution, and reveal that grain boundary separation plays a pivotal role in spalling.

Materials science↗

DOE OSTI2020

Mechanical properties and microstructure of 316L stainless steel produced by hybrid manufacturing

Hybrid manufacturing is a combination of additive (deposition) and subtractive (machining) manufacturing in a single machine tool. Such a system can be used for near net shape manufacturing and component repair using either similar or dissimilar materials. Integrated into a single system, transition between additive and subtractive manufacturing can occur immediately and be leveraged to generate large components by alternating between the processes. In this investigation, we show how the interleaved capabilities can reduce overall cycle time by up to 68 %, improve average relative elongation to failure by 71 %, and reduce the average relative porosity fraction by 83 % when compared to traditional additive manufactured components. Results from this investigation builds the foundation needed for hybrid manufacturing to be applicable towards the manufacture of large complex components such as nosecones and marine propulsors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Thermal Assessment and In-Situ Monitoring of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors in Power Electronic Modules: Preprint

Insulated gate bipolar transistor (IGBT) power modules are devices commonly used for switching of high voltages and currents. Usage and environmental conditions can cause these power modules to degrade over time, and this gradual process may eventually lead to catastrophic failure of the device. This degradation process may cause some early performance symptoms related to the state of health of the power module, making it possible to detect reliability degradation of the IGBT module. Testing can be used to accelerate this process, permitting a rapid determination of whether specific declines in device reliability can be characterized. In this study, thermal cycling was conducted on multiple power modules simultaneously in order to assess the effect of thermal cycling on the degradation of the power module. In-situ monitoring of temperature was performed from inside each power module using high temperature thermocouples. Device imaging and characterization was performed along with temperature data analysis, to assess failure modes and mechanisms within the power modules. While the experiment was aimed to assess the potential damage effects of thermal cycling on die attach, results indicated that wirebond degradation was the life limiting failure mechanism.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Virtual Metering for Monitoring Building Energy Consumption

The United States Department of Energy (DOE) has standard metering requirements of commercial buildings for optimizing energy performance. The guiding principles are to continuously track and optimize energy performance and install building-level meters for electricity, natural gas, and steam. Some buildings at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) have physical submeters monitoring their energy consumption, but these meters have proven to be unreliable. And, in most cases, replacing them has proven to be a slow process. Installing new submeters also requires a temporary lockout of the circuit on which they are being installed. Many buildings at LANL contain laboratories with ongoing experiments or data centers, which makes an equipment power outage nearly impossible to plan. This inability to plan power outages results in long-term submeter failures. Although most submeters are eventually replaced, failures lead to missing consumption data for some unpredictable, extended time. A building automation system (BAS) is a system that provides control and monitoring on a building to maintain the operational performance of the building and occupancy comfort. Many buildings at LANL currently have a BAS, and all new renovations and installs will include installing a BAS if one does not already exist. The intended purpose for a BAS is primarily to monitor the health and efficiency of a building; however, it is also possible to calculate equipment power and energy consumption using BAS information. This project aims to use virtual meters to monitor building energy consumption as a cost-effective and minimally labor-intensive alternative to installing physical submeters. The fault detection and diagnostics tool, SkySpark, provides a centralized database for all the data from the various BAS that are active at LANL. This data includes the information that is needed to create virtual meters for heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems in most buildings, including heating and cooling loads. 9 This report begins with a detailed summary of the project, including the reasoning, procedure, and results. The specific processes of creating the various virtual meters are then identified. Then the limitations are discussed. And, lastly, the results and future potential are presented.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Oregon Roadway CSZ Liquefaction and Landslide Impact Screening Analysis

The roadway transportation routes and the surrounding environments in Oregon will be subject to ground acceleration and potential associated deformation due to the propagation of waves of energy during a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake. Linear features such as highways may be subject to partial or complete disruption of their function resulting from ground deformations at and along the roadway. A potential source of these disruptions associated with a CSZ event are landslides and liquefaction in the soils along and beneath the highways and local roadways. The construction of the Oregon roadway system and urban development have occurred largely along the banks of the rivers—those along the Pacific coast, and along the valleys throughout the Oregon Coast Range and Cascade Mountains. These locations also represent areas where landslides and liquefaction have occurred historically, or may potentially occur in the future, presenting a significant vulnerability for the roadway system and dependent post-CSZ earthquake emergency response and recovery effort. Many of the Oregon areas with landslide- and liquefaction-prone soils have the potential to impact roadway transportation routes after a major earthquake causing delays in establishing routes to transport emergency response personnel and resources to impacted areas and communities. This report presents methods used to project the impacts that CSZ earthquake-induced landslides and liquefaction may have on roadways across Oregon. First, this report presents an approach for estimating the risk of landslides to Oregon roadways, and determining approximate reopening times. Second, this report presents a similar approach for estimating the risk of liquefaction-induced ground displacements to roadway pavements, also resulting in approximate reopening times for roadway segments. The outcomes of these two ground failure analyses serve as inputs to a broader analysis of CSZ earthquake impacts to Oregon’s surface transportation system and its ability to support post-disaster response and recovery activities, as part of the Oregon Transportation Systems Regional Resiliency Assessment Program project (CISA 2021).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multiphysics Simulations of Nanofibrous High Power Targets for the Inference of Failure Modes

Fermilab s High Power Targetry Research and Development (HPT R&D) group have been developing and studying an electrospun nanofiber target concept to support the need for robust targets in future fixed target facilities. These nanofiber mats have demonstrated resistance to radiation damage, and the free motion of the individual fibers is expected to mitigate the cyclic stresses induced by a pulsed, high-power beam. To evaluate the efficacy of this concept, nanofiber mat samples have been sent by the HPT R&D group to the HiRadMat facility at CERN for prototypic thermal shock testing; the outcomes of these experiments show that the survivability of a nanofiber target depends on its construction parameters, in particular the packing density of the fibers. Samples with higher packing densities have consistently been destroyed by exposure to the HiRadMat beam, with a hole at the beam center visible, and layers of nanofibers peeled away from the center hole, whereas samples with lower densities have survived with limited damage. The exact reason for the failure of the higher density targets was unclear at the time of the original experiments, but the results of our recent multiphysics simulations which recreate the experiments support the hypothesis that the expansion and pressurization of the air inside the target after being heated by the pulsed beam is the cause; in a high density nanofiber mat, the motion of air through the pores of the mat is much more restricted, and induces a larger pressure on the fibers, blowing the mat apart. In this talk, we ll share the results of these simulations and discuss how they support this hypothesis.

Asztalos, Will↗

DOE OSTI2025

Feasibility of an Accelerometer-Based Structural Health Monitoring System for the LANL Blast Tube

A modeling- and simulation-based study was conducted on the feasibility of implementing an accelerometer-based SHM system on the Los Alamos National Laboratory blast tube. A blast tube experiment was modeled using the Abaqus explicit finite element solver. A custom user subroutine was written to apply test-like pressure loading to the inside surface of the blast tube. The subroutine applies analytically defined pressure loads derived from tracer output taken from a Compressible Flow Computational Fluid Dynamics Solver model of the blast tube. Five unique versions of the model were created: an undamaged reference model at 65°F was used as the baseline and compared to equivalent models at 10°F and 100°F. These three models were compared to models with small damage at the reference temperature. The two types of damage considered were a radial (circumferential) crack in the main tube body and a longitudinal crack in the supports. Acceleration outputs were extracted from accelerometer bodies included in the model and were post processed using a variety of standard SHM techniques. Different potential features signaling failure were extracted and compared using statistical methods in the time and frequency domains. A method was identified that clearly shows that differences in structural response resulting from the modeled damage can be differentiated from the structural response resulting from changing environmental conditions. However, the amount of damage applied to create observable differences in the accelerometer data was so large that simpler methods of damage detection would be more cost effective in locating damage.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Minimum Detectable Quantity Calculation for Radiation Portal Monitors

The minimum detectable quantity of a radiation portal monitor is the smallest amount of radioactive material that can be detected passing through the monitor (with a specified detection probability). The minimum detectable quantity is a function of many factors, including isotope, velocity, distance between pillars, height of portal and vehicle, source distribution and position, background radiation, background suppression, detector volume and positions, detector efficiency, decision metrics and algorithms, the presence of NORM (naturally occurring radioactive material), and alarm thresholds. Experimentally testing a radiation portal monitor to failure for all combinations of these factors is extremely time-consuming and often cost prohibitive. This document outlines a straightforward method for quickly estimating the minimum detectable quantity for moving sources over a large variety of conditions with a minimal number of static measurements. The document also describes a proof of concept software application that the International Atomic Energy Agency has designed based on the described method that can be used by Member States to estimate a monitor’s minimum detectable quantity.

Blessinger, Christopher S.↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Graph Neural Network Surrogate Model for hls4ml

Recent advancements in use of machine learning (ML) techniques on field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) have allowed for the implementation of embedded neural networks with extremely low latency. This is invaluable for particle detectors at the Large Hadron Collider, where latency and used area are strictly bounded. The hls4ml framework is a procedure that converts trained ML model software to a synthesis result to can be used on an FPGA. However, running the pipeline is a time-consuming procedure, and there is a strong risk of failure. In particular, it may not be possible to successfully convert a model into a synthesis result, or the resource consumption of the model may exceed the resources of the target FPGA. To aid with this development, we introduce wa-hls4ml, a surrogate model using a graph neural network to emulate the structure of the source models. The goal is to estimate the chance of success and resource consumption of a given model when passed through the hls4ml pipeline, without needing to run the pipeline.

Plotnikov, Dennis↗

DOE OSTI2024

Surveillance Test Articles Development

Overview of previous work at ANL: • Initial designs tested with A617 driver • 3 families of specimens: - Large: demonstrate failure during test - Small: demonstrate realistic-sized samples - Reference: to validate the strain-gauge thermal strain correction • Thermal cycling between 500 and 650, over a period of about 200 minutes • Demonstrated basic surveillance approach • Large specimens failed in gauge section • The bimetallic welds appeared intact at the end of testing (316H-A617) • Gradual decrease in strain range over time • Strain gauge reliability was an issue: at least one gauge failed • Failure mode (buckling) was not what we had expected

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Seismic Resilience of Large Power Transformer Bushings & Non-SF6 Industrial Base Scan Review

Large (high voltage) power transformers (LPT), and more specifically, their bushings, are known to be susceptible to seismic failure. With bushing failure, a transformer will have to be replaced, which has a considerable lead time, adding to the power outage duration. Cost-efficient, proven solutions are not currently available to mitigate this risk, which can persist for the more than 30-year life of a particular transformer. This work will focus on developing and demonstrating a hardware solution to address seismic vulnerabilities and reduce outage risks from LPT failure. Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) is a specialty gas with excellent electrical insulation properties which has been used extensively in the power industry. This gas is unfortunately also one of the most potent greenhouse gases known to humanity. A 2014 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that SF6 has a global warming potential (GWP) 23,000 times higher than Carbon Dioxide, and has the highest GWP of all gases assessed (Myhre 2013). SF6 is almost exclusively man-made and is produced for use as an insulator in high voltage electrical equipment. This makes the production and use of SF6 one of the leading sources of anthropogenic climate change. To fully eliminate the environmental impacts of SF6, alternative technology is needed. The ideal replacement would be a technology that can fulfil the same role as SF6, at the same cost or cheaper, but without adverse environmental effects. Currently, no technology fits this description, however several promising technologies have begun to enter the market. An industry scan was performed to assess the state of industry adoption and manufacturing capability for SF6-free alternative technologies for use at the high-voltage level, and the primary barriers to broader adoption.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Slow dynamic elasticity at short times

It has been reported that slow dynamic nonlinear elastic relaxations, widely thought to proceed universally in proportion to the logarithm of time after cessation of mechanical conditioning, actually recover with a smaller slope at early times, with a time of transition that varies with the grain size of the material. Furthermore, this would constitute a heretofore unreported failure of the claimed universality, while suggesting application to nondestructive evaluation and structural health monitoring. Here we present new observations at short times, in the single bead system, in cement paste, mortar, concrete, sandstone and granite. Within the limits imposed by finite duration ring-down such that the effective instant of conditioning cessation is imprecise, and the corresponding ambiguity as to the time at which relaxation begins, we find no reliable sign of such a transition, even in samples of large grain size mortar and concrete similar to those described elsewhere as having clear and late cutoffs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Reliable machine prognostic health management in the presence of missing data

Prognostics and health management enables the prediction of future degradation and remaining useful life (RUL) for in-service systems based on historical and contemporary data, showing promise for many practical applications. One major challenge for prognostics is the common occurrence of missing values in time-series data, often caused by disruptions in sensor communication or hardware/software failures. Another major concern is that the sufficient prior knowledge of critical component degradation with a clear failure threshold is often not readily available in practice. These issues can significantly hinder the application of advanced signal and data analysis methods and consequently degrade the health management performance. In this article, we propose a novel data-driven framework that is capable of providing accurate and reliable predictions of degradation and RUL. In this approach, one-hot health state indicators are appended to the historical time series so that the model learns end-of-life automatically. A modified gate recurrent unit based variational autoencoder is employed in generative adversarial networks to model the temporal irregularity of the incomplete time series. Furthermore, experiments on multivariate time-series datasets collected from real-world aeroengines verify that significant performance improvement can be achieved using the proposed model for robust long-term prognostics.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Scaling up carboxylic acid production from cheese whey and brewery wastewater via methane-arrested anaerobic digestion

In a circular economy, organic waste streams are valuable resources for sustainably producing chemicals and fuels. This study investigates a new methane-arrested anaerobic digestion (MAAD) process that converts high-strength cheese whey and brewery wastewater into carboxylic acids. The process was developed and optimized under various bench-scale semi-continuous (fed-batch) operating conditions (e.g., retention time, organic loading rate, pH, and feed/harvest frequency). The MAAD responses to various control-failure scenarios were also systematically investigated. The highest total acid productivity was 26g/(L liq ·d) with a substrate conversion of 0.79g COD digested /g COD fed at a hydraulic retention time (HRT) of approximately 2 d in a 14-L digester. The most stable conditions for digester operation (HRT 3 d at pH 6.0 and 40°C) were selected for process scale-up to 100gal (~380 L). Semi-continuous, pilot-scale MAAD successfully produced a total acid concentration of 40.6+/-1.1 g/L with 8.1% acetic acid, 45.1% butyric acid, and 44.5% lactic acid. The links between wastewater characteristics, operation mode, digester scale, and microbial community structure were statistically analyzed. The results show genera Sporolactobacillus and Clostridium positively correlate with butyric acid production (Pearson correlation coefficient>0.5). Moreover, four kinetic models were developed and fit to batch MAAD experimental datasets (R 2 >95%) and were successfully applied to predict the total acid production in both bench-and pilot-scale semi-continuous MAADs. In conclusion, this study shows MAAD has the potential for industrial-scale applications and is a robust platform to valorize low- or negative-value waste streams into high-value bioproducts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Toward Drilling the Perfect Geothermal Well: An International Research Coordination Network for Geothermal Drilling Optimization Supported by Deep Machine Learning and Cloud Based Data Aggregation

The EDGE project, supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office under award DE-EE0008793, established a data-driven framework for improving the efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and reliability of geothermal well drilling. The project focused on developing scalable data infrastructure, advanced machine learning and probabilistic models, and integrated analytics tools to support continuous drilling optimization. A central objective was to reduce geothermal drilling costs by up to seventy percent while minimizing the risk of well failure through predictive diagnostics and adaptive planning. Over the project period, a comprehensive data repository was designed and deployed, incorporating records from over one hundred geothermal wells across varied geological settings. This repository supported both structured and unstructured data and adhered to FAIR data principles, enabling provenance tracking, quality control, and standardized metadata. The project introduced automated ingestion pipelines and a cloud-hosted platform that facilitated access to raw, processed, and derived datasets. This infrastructure served as the foundation for model development and analysis. Machine learning workflows were developed to predict key drilling metrics including rate of penetration, non-productive time, and total drilling costs. Self-organizing maps and dimensionality reduction methods were used to uncover operational patterns and outliers, while supervised learning algorithms such as random forests and deep neural networks were applied to forecast performance outcomes. The models were validated on heterogeneous datasets from both U.S. and Icelandic fields, demonstrating variable but significant predictive accuracy. The results indicated that finer temporal resolution, inclusion of lithological data, and consistency in operational annotations could substantially improve model performance. The project also implemented process mining techniques to reconstruct state-transition models from drilling event logs. These models enabled the identification of deviations from optimal workflows and provided insights into recurring failure modes. Analysis of non-productive time highlighted the impact of equipment failures, geological challenges, and human factors, offering opportunities for targeted mitigation strategies. The EDGE Dashboard was developed as a web-based expert system integrating data visualization, model outputs, and user-driven queries. It provided an accessible interface for operators to explore historical data, evaluate predicted outcomes, and compare drilling scenarios. Initial feedback from project partners suggested that the dashboard could serve as a foundation for more advanced advisory and optimization tools. Overall, the EDGE project demonstrated the feasibility and value of applying modern data science techniques to geothermal drilling. It delivered a set of interoperable tools and models that can support more efficient, lower-risk well development. The findings point toward a viable path for transitioning from advisory analytics to semi-autonomous drilling systems, contingent on continued collaboration, expanded datasets, and field validation. The project results have immediate relevance for drilling operations, data management practices, and future geothermal R&D efforts aimed at achieving reliable, cost-competitive geothermal energy at scale.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ultrasonic Characterization of Lithium Ion Thermal Runaway Conditions for Real-time Ultrasonic Enabled BMS Integration

The demand for energy storage is growing, and lithium-ion batteries are a promising technology to meet this need due to their high power/energy density, high round-trip efficiency, rapid response time, and portability. However, recent catastrophic events caused by thermal runaway have slowed their adoption, highlighting the need for an early warning system for battery failure. In this work, ultrasound is used to detect physical changes in 950 mAh batteries by identifying material property changes independent of voltage and current. [Ultrasound signal features (e.g., time of flight, maximum frequency component) were extracted as the batteries were cycled and subjected to both constant current and constant voltage overcharge and were used to develop two metrics identifying failure: a warning to detect the start of overcharge and an emergency stop (E-stop) to immediately take the battery out of service. The identification method involved locating magnitude differences of several ultrasound features compared to baseline operation considering different currents and temperatures, and the warning/stopping metrics were consistent across all experiments. For an average overcharge time of 140 minutes, the average warning was issued 124 minutes before the failure and the average E-stop was triggered 94 minutes before failure. As a test of using ultrasound for early warning detection, a battery was forced into overcharge and returned to normal cycling conditions based on the previously determined warning metric. Both the voltage profile and the ultrasound measurements returned to their baseline behavior, indicating that ultrasonic detection can not only identify battery failure before a catastrophic event, but can also provide early enough warnings such that overcharges can be detected and corrected quickly enough so the battery does not need to be decommissioned.]

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reliability of Open Public Electric Vehicle Direct Current Fast Chargers

The aim was to systematically evaluate the usability of all public electric vehicles (EV) direct current fast chargers (DCFC) in the San Francisco region. To achieve a rapid transition to EVs, a highly reliable and easy to use charging infrastructure is critical to building confidence among consumers. The functionality and usability of all 182 open, public DCFC charging stations with CCS connectors (combined charging system) in the 9 counties of the Bay Area were tested (655 electric vehicle service equipment (EVSE) ports). An EVSE was classified as functional if it charged an EV for 2 minutes. Overall, 73.3% of the 655 EVSEs were functional. The causes of the nonfunctioning EVSEs (23.5%) were blank or unresponsive screens or error messages; payment system failures; charge initiation failures; network failures; or broken connectors. In addition, the cable was too short to reach the EV inlet for 3.2% of the EVSEs. A random sampling of 10% of the EVSEs, approximately 8 days after the first evaluation, found no overall change in functionality. The level of functionality found with field testing conflicts with the 95–98% uptime reported by the EV service providers (EVSPs) who operate the EV charging stations. There is a need for precise and verifiable definitions of uptime, downtime, and excluded time, as applied to public EV chargers. In conclusion, the level of failure of the existing public EV DCFC charge infrastructure highlights the importance of improving the system design and maintenance to improve adoption of EVs.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Annual and sub-seasonal dynamics of a rapidly eroding permafrost coastline along the Beaufort Sea in northern Alaska

Drew Point, an unlithified ice-rich permafrost coastline along the Alaskan Beaufort Sea, is among the most rapidly eroding Arctic coastlines, with an average erosion rate of 19 m/yr from 2007 to 2019. We use 16 high-resolution remote sensing datasets (satellite, airborne, and UAV imagery) to analyze erosion mechanisms (thermal abrasion and denudation) in relation to environmental forcings along a 1.5 km stretch of coastline during the 2018 and 2019 open water seasons. In a striking contrast, 2019 exhibited the highest mean erosion rate (34.5 m) within the 2007–2019 record, while 2018 had the second lowest (11.2 m). Block failure contributed to sub-seasonal erosion rates 6 to 21 times higher than thermal denudation, with staggered block fall timing, lag responses post-storm, and non-storm block collapse influencing overall erosion magnitude and timing. To quantify wind effects, we developed wind sums, a metric combining cumulative wind speed and directional data that can be used as a proxy for integrated storm intensity capable of incorporating lagged responses that correlated strongly with erosion at sub-seasonal and annual scales. Our findings emphasize the dominant role of wind during periods of open water and air temperature during the thaw season in driving permafrost coastline erosion dynamics, while highlighting the importance of spatiotemporally high-resolution datasets for understanding Arctic coastal change dynamics.

Alaska Beaufort Sea Coast↗