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DOE OSTI2023

Cloud condensation nuclei activity of internally mixed particle populations at a remote marine free troposphere site in the North Atlantic Ocean

Here, this study reports results from research conducted at the Observatory of Mount Pico (OMP), 2225 m above mean sea level on Pico Island in the Azores archipelago in June and July 2017. We investigated the chemical composition, mixing state, and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activities of long-range transported free tropospheric (FT) particles. FLEXible PARTicle Lagrangian particle dispersion model (FLEXPART) simulations reveal that most air masses that arrived at the OMP during the sampling period originated in North America and were highly aged (average plume age > 10 days). We probed size-resolved chemical composition, mixing state, and hygroscopicity parameter ($\mathcal{κ}$) of individual particles using computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy with an energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometer (CCSEM-EDX). Based on the estimated individual particle mass from elemental composition, we calculated the mixing state index, $χ$. During our study, FT particle populations were internally mixed ($χ$ of samples are between 53% and 87%), owing to the long atmospheric aging time. We used data from a miniature Cloud Condensation Nucleus Counter (miniCCNC) to derive the hygroscopicity parameter, $\mathcal{κ}$ CCNC . Combining $\mathcal{κ}$ CCNC and FLEXPART, we found that air masses recirculated above the North Atlantic Ocean with lower mean altitude had higher $\mathcal{κ}$ CCNC due to the higher contribution of sea salt particles. We used CCSEM-EDX and phase state measurements to predict single-particle $\mathcal{κ}$ ($\mathcal{κ}$ CCSEM-EDX ) values, which overlap with the lower range of $\mathcal{κ}$ CCNC measured below 0.15 % SS. Therefore, CCSEM-EDX measurements can be useful in predicting the lower bound of $\mathcal{κ}$, which can be used in climate models to predict CCN activities, especially in remote locations where online CCN measurements are unavailable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2010

Plasma IMS Composition Measurements for Europa and the Other Galilean Moons

NASA and ESA are planning the joint Europa Jupiter System Mission (EJSM) to the Jupiter system with specific emphasis to Europa and Ganymede, respectively. The Japanese Space Agency is also planning an orbiter mission to explore Jupiter's magnetosphere and the Galilean satellites. For NASA's Jupiter Europa Orbiter (JEO) we are developing the 3D Ion Mass Spectrometer (IMS) with two main goals which can also be applied to the other Galilean moons, 1) measure the plasma interaction between Europa and Jupiter's magnetosphere and 2) infer the 4 pi surface composition to trace elemental and significant isotopic levels. The first goal supports the magnetometer (MAG) measurements, primarily directed at detection of Europa's sub-surface ocean, while the second gives information about transfer of material between the Galilean moons, and between the moon surfaces and subsurface layers putatively including oceans. The measurement of the interactions for all the Galilean moons can be used to trace the in situ ion measurements of pickup ions back to either Europa's or Ganymede's surface from the respectively orbiting spacecraft. The IMS instrument, being developed under NASA's Astrobiology Instrument Development Program, would maximally achieve plasma measurement requirements for JEO and EJSM while moving forward our knowledge of Jupiter system composition and source processes to far higher levels than previously envisaged. The composition of the global surfaces of Europa and Ganymede can be inferred from the measurement of ejected neutrals and pick-up ions using at minimum an in situ payload including MAG and IMS also fully capable of meeting Level 1 mission requirements for ocean detection and survey. Elemental and isotopic analysis of potentially extruded oceanic materials at the moon surfaces would further support the ocean objectives. These measurements should be made from a polar orbiting spacecraft about Europa or Ganymede at height 100 km. The ejecta produced by sputtering of the surfaces of Europa and Ganymede has been shown to be representative of the surface composition. Level 2 science on surface geology and composition can then be further enhanced by addition of the following: 3D Ion Neutral Mass Spectrometer (INNS), 3D plasma electron spectrometer (ELS), and hot plasma energetic particle instrument. The measurement approach is to alternate between times measuring pickup ions and times measuring plasma and magnetic field parameters along the spacecraft trajectory. By measuring the pickup ion energy, arrival direction and mass-per-charge, the ion can be traced back along the ejection trajectory to the approximate area of origin if the 3-D electric field and magnetic field are known. In situ observations of plasma flow velocities and vector magnetic fields can be used to determine the local convective electric field (E = -VXB) along the spacecraft trajectory. By combining this information with models of the magnetospheric interaction with Europa, one can generate 3D maps of the electric and magnetic field and compute the trajectories of the pickup ions back to the surface or exospheric points of origin. In the case of Ganymede there is the additional complexity of its own internal dipole magnetic field, while Io's volcanic activity introduces the complexity of a highly structured denser atmosphere. Callisto with its less globally extended exosphere will have a simpler interaction than for Europa (i.e., more like our moon). We will discuss these differences in light of the above proposed technique. Finally, the INNS observations and neutral exosphere models are needed to estimate production rates of pickup ions. The hot plasma measurements are needed to correct for sputtering rates which can be time dependent and electron plasma observations for electron impact ionization rates. Instrument characteristics, field-of-view requirements, modes of operation and effects of radiation on instrument functionality will be discussed.

Sittler, Edward↗

NASA NTRS2004

Masked Proportional Routing

Masked proportional routing is an improved procedure for choosing links between adjacent nodes of a network for the purpose of transporting an entity from a source node ("A") to a destination node ("B"). The entity could be, for example, a physical object to be shipped, in which case the nodes would represent waypoints and the links would represent roads or other paths between waypoints. For another example, the entity could be a message or packet of data to be transmitted from A to B, in which case the nodes could be computer-controlled switching stations and the links could be communication channels between the stations. In yet another example, an entity could represent a workpiece while links and nodes could represent, respectively, manufacturing processes and stages in the progress of the workpiece towards a finished product. More generally, the nodes could represent states of an entity and the links could represent allowed transitions of the entity. The purpose of masked proportional routing and of related prior routing procedures is to schedule transitions of entities from their initial states ("A") to their final states ("B") in such a manner as to minimize a cost or to attain some other measure of optimality or efficiency. Masked proportional routing follows a distributed (in the sense of decentralized) approach to probabilistically or deterministically choosing the links. It was developed to satisfy a need for a routing procedure that 1. Does not always choose the same link(s), even for two instances characterized by identical estimated values of associated cost functions; 2. Enables a graceful transition from one set of links to another set of links as the circumstances of operation of the network change over time; 3. Is preferably amenable to separate optimization of different portions of the network; 4. Is preferably usable in a network in which some of the routing decisions are made by one or more other procedure(s); 5. Preferably does not cause an entity to visit the same node twice; and 6. Preferably can be modified so that separate entities moving from A to B do not arrive out of order.

Wolpert, David↗

NASA NTRS2008

Prototype Flight Management Capabilities to Explore Temporal RNP Concepts

Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) concepts of operation may require aircraft to fly planned trajectories in four dimensions three spatial dimensions and time. A prototype 4D flight management capability is being developed by NASA to facilitate the development of these concepts. New trajectory generation functions extend today's flight management system (FMS) capabilities that meet a single Required Time of Arrival (RTA) to trajectory solutions that comply with multiple RTA constraints. When a solution is not possible, a constraint management capability relaxes constraints to achieve a trajectory solution that meets the most important constraints as specified by candidate NextGen concepts. New flight guidance functions provide continuous guidance to the aircraft s flight control system to enable it to fly specified 4D trajectories. Guidance options developed for research investigations include a moving time window with varying tolerances that are a function of proximity to imposed constraints, and guidance that recalculates the aircraft s planned trajectory as a function of the estimation of current compliance. Compliance tolerances are related to required navigation performance (RNP) through the extension of existing RNP concepts for lateral containment. A conceptual temporal RNP implementation and prototype display symbology are proposed.

Ballin, Mark G.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Real-time adaptive aircraft scheduling

One of the most important functions of any air traffic management system is the assignment of ground-holding times to flights, i.e., the determination of whether and by how much the take-off of a particular aircraft headed for a congested part of the air traffic control (ATC) system should be postponed in order to reduce the likelihood and extent of airborne delays. An analysis is presented for the fundamental case in which flights from many destinations must be scheduled for arrival at a single congested airport; the formulation is also useful in scheduling the landing of airborne flights within the extended terminal area. A set of approaches is described for addressing a deterministic and a probabilistic version of this problem. For the deterministic case, where airport capacities are known and fixed, several models were developed with associated low-order polynomial-time algorithms. For general delay cost functions, these algorithms find an optimal solution. Under a particular natural assumption regarding the delay cost function, an extremely fast (O(n ln n)) algorithm was developed. For the probabilistic case, using an estimated probability distribution of airport capacities, a model was developed with an associated low-order polynomial-time heuristic algorithm with useful properties.

Kolitz, Stephan E.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine-Learning-Based High-Resolution Earthquake Catalog Reveals How Complex Fault Structures Were Activated during the 2016–2017 Central Italy Sequence

The 2016–2017 central Italy seismic sequence occurred on an 80 km long normal-fault system. The sequence initiated with the Mw 6.0 Amatrice event on 24 August 2016, followed by the Mw 5.9 Visso event on 26 October and the Mw 6.5 Norcia event on 30 October. We analyze continuous data from a dense network of 139 seismic stations to build a high-precision catalog of ~900,000 earthquakes spanning a 1 yr period, based on arrival times derived using a deep-neural-network-based picker. Our catalog contains an order of magnitude more events than the catalog routinely produced by the local earthquake monitoring agency. Aftershock activity reveals the geometry of complex fault structures activated during the earthquake sequence and provides additional insights into the potential factors controlling the development of the largest events. Activated fault structures in the northern and southern regions appear complementary to faults activated during the 1997 Colfiorito and 2009 L’Aquila sequences, suggesting that earthquake triggering primarily occurs on critically stressed faults. Delineated major fault zones are relatively thick compared to estimated earthquake location uncertainties, and a large number of kilometer-long faults and diffuse seismicity were activated during the sequence. These properties might be related to fault age, roughness, and the complexity of inherited structures. The rich details resolvable in this catalog will facilitate continued investigation of this energetic and well-recorded earthquake sequence.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1973

En route position and time control of aircraft using Kalman filtering of radio aid data

Fixed-time-of-arrival (FTA) guidance and navigation is investigated as a possible technique capable of operation within much more stringent en route separation standards and offering significant advantages in safety, higher traffic densities, and improved scheduling reliability, both en route and in the terminal areas. This study investigated the application of FTA guidance previously used in spacecraft guidance. These FTA guidance techniques have been modified and are employed to compute the velocity corrections necessary to return an aircraft to a specified great-circle reference path in order to exercise en route time and position control throughout the entire flight. The necessary position and velocity estimates to accomplish this task are provided by Kalman filtering of data from Loran-C, VORTAC/TACAN, Doppler radar, radio or barometric altitude,and altitude rate. The guidance and navigation system was evaluated using a digital simulation of the cruise phase of supersonic and subsonic flights between San Francisco and New York City, and between New York City and London.

Mcgee, L. A.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Behavior of queues at signalized intersections in heavy traffic

This paper derives the asymptotic behavior of traffic queues at signalized intersections when the excess of departure capacity over arrivals approaches zero from above. The most interesting result is that the distribution of queue length approaches a negative exponential, with fewer restrictive assumptions than hitherto known. The main improvement results from more precise use of a combinatorial lemma of Spitzer, giving the maximum of the partial sums of a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables, plus some specific constructive probability calculations, many of them involving the Fourier transform. New results are presented on the probability that the queue be below a fixed bound and/or on the probability that the queue be empty. Applications to on-line estimators for real-time traffic control are suggested.

Posner, E. C.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Dynamical Model for the Zodiacal Cloud and Sporadic Meteors

The solar system is dusty, and would become dustier over time as asteroids collide and comets disintegrate, except that small debris particles in interplanetary space do not last long. They can be ejected from the solar system by Jupiter, thermally destroyed near the Sun, or physically disrupted by collisions. Also, some are swept by the Earth (and other planets), producing meteors. Here we develop a dynamical model for the solar system meteoroids and use it to explain meteor radar observations. We find that the Jupiter Family Comets (JFCs) are the main source of the prominent concentrations of meteors arriving to the Earth from the helion and antihelion directions. To match the radiant and orbit distributions, as measured by the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR) and Advanced Meteor Orbit Radar (AMOR), our model implies that comets, and JFCs in particular, must frequently disintegrate when reaching orbits with low perihelion distance. Also, the collisional lifetimes of millimeter particles may be longer (approx. > 10(exp 5) yr at 1 AU) than postulated in the standard collisional models (approx 10(exp 4) yr at 1 AU), perhaps because these chondrule-sized meteoroids are stronger than thought before. Using observations of the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) to calibrate the model, we find that the total cross section and mass of small meteoroids in the inner solar system are (1.7-3.5) 10(exp 11) sq km and approx. 4 10(exp 19) g, respectively, in a good agreement with previous studies. The mass input required to keep the Zodiacal Cloud (ZC) in a steady state is estimated to be approx. 10(exp 4)-10(exp 5) kg/s. The input is up to approx 10 times larger than found previously, mainly because particles released closer to the Sun have shorter collisional lifetimes, and need to be supplied at a faster rate. The total mass accreted by the Earth in particles between diameters D = 5 micron and 1 cm is found to be approx 15,000 tons/yr (factor of 2 uncertainty), which is a large share of the accretion flux measured by the Long Term Duration Facility (LDEF). Majority of JFC particles plunge into the upper atmosphere at <15 km/s speeds, should survive the atmospheric entry, and can produce micrometeorite falls. This could explain the compositional similarity of samples collected in the Antarctic ice and stratosphere, and those brought from comet Wild 2 by the Stardust spacecraft. Meteor radars such as CMOR and AMOR see only a fraction of the accretion flux (approx 1- 10% and approx 10-50%, respectively), because small particles impacting at low speeds produce ionization levels that are below these radars detection capabilities.

Nesvorny, David↗

NASA NTRS1994

Differential GPS and system integration of the Low Visibility Landing and Surface Operations (LVLASO) demonstration

The LVLASO Flight Demonstration of ASTA concepts (FDAC) integrates NASA-Langley's electronic moving map display and Transport Systems Research Vehicle (TSRV) (a modified Boeing 737 aircraft); ARINC's VHF data link, GPS ground station, and automated controller workstation; and Norden's surface radar/airport movement safety system. Aircraft location is shown on the electronic map display in the cockpit. An approved taxi route as well as other aircraft and surface traffic are also displayed. An Ashtech Z12 Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver on the TSRV estimates the aircraft's position. In Differential mode (DSPS), the Ashtech receiver accepts differential C/A code pseudorange corrections from a GPS ground station. The GPS ground station provides corrections up to ten satellites. The corrections are transmitted on a VHF data link at a 1 Hz. rate using the RTCM-104 format. DGPS position estimates will be within 5 meters of actual aircraft position. DGPS position estimates are blended with position, velocity, acceleration, and heading data from the TSRV Air Data/Inertial Reference System (ADIRS). The ADIRS data is accurate in the short-term, but drifts over time. The DGPS data is used to keep the ADIRS position accurate. Ownship position, velocity, heading, and turn rate are sent at a 20 Hz. rate to the electronic map display. Airport traffic is detected by the airport surface radar system. Aircraft and vehicles such as fuel trucks and baggage carts are detected. The traffic's location, velocity, and heading are sent to the TSRV. To prevent traffic symbology from jumping each second when a location update arrives, velocity and heading are used to predict a new traffic location for each display update. Possible runway incursions and collisions can be shown on the electronic map. Integrating the different systems used in the FDAC requires attention to the underlying coordinate systems. The airport diagram displayed on the electronic map is obtained from published navigational charts. The charts reference the North American Datum of 1927 (NAD27) or a local state-plane coordinate system. GPS uses the World Geodetic Standard of 1984 (WGS84). Both NAD27 and WGS84 model the Earth as an ellipsoid, however, they use a different origin and different size ellipsoids. Latitudes and longitudes given in these systems can be converted to a Cartesian system with the origin at the Earth's center. The surface radar detects traffic in a locally-level, rho-theta coordiante system. The electronic airport diagram is stored using a flat XY coordinate system. The map origin is at the tower and is referenced as True North up. All ownship and other traffic positions must be converted to the electronic map's frame of reference for display.

Rankin, James M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Airport Runway Configurations for Decision-Support Using Supervised Learning

One of the most challenging tasks for air traffic controllers is runway configuration management (RCM). It deals with the optimal selection of runways to operate on (for arrivals and departures) based on traffic, surface wind speed, wind direction, other environmental variables, noise constraints, and several other airport-specific factors. It affects the efficiency of the National Airspace System (NAS) and both surface and airspace operations can benefit from better understanding future runway configurations. In this paper, we present a comprehensive implementation of predictive models for runway configuration estimation from large volumes of historical data. Specifically, operational data from two full years (2018 and 2019) is collected, analyzed, and fused together to build the data product used in this work. The data set differs from prior work in the field in terms of its scope, resolution, and variety of factors collected and considered. Meteorological data is collected from two different sources – current weather conditions from METAR (Meteorological Terminal Aviation Routine Weather Report) and forecast weather conditions from Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP). Operational data from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) related to scheduled and actual number of arrivals and departures, average taxi times, etc. are collected. NASA’s Sherlock Data Warehouse is used to identify critical information such as go-arounds, and other events that might impact RCM decision-making. All data is collected and aggregated over 15-minute intervals throughout the two years. This provides a resolution like the timescales that might be necessary for runway configuration management decision-making. A variety of supervised learning algorithms are tested including Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, etc. including tuning of the model hyperparameters. The modeling process is applied and presented on two representative U.S. airports – Charlotte Douglas International Airport (KCLT) and Denver International Airport (KDEN). The two airports present different levels of complexity in terms of the total number of configurations used and provide a balanced perspective on the generalizability of the developed approach to other airports in the NAS. Initial results are promising (F1 score of 0.91 at KCLT and 0.83 at KDEN) for data in the test set. The final paper will contain a comprehensive comparison between different models and model building strategies as well as further refined results. Most important predictors for each airport will be identified along with a discussion and recommendations on adapting the framework to other scenarios.

Tejas G Puranik↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Concept for Flexible Operations and Optimized Traffic into Metroplex Regions

A "Flexible Flight Operations" concept for airport metroplexes was studied. A flexible flight is one whose destination airport is not assigned until a threshold is reached near the arrival area at which time the runway which reduces overall delay is assigned. The concept seeks to increase throughput by exploiting flexibility. The quantification of best-case benefits from the concept was pursued to establish whether concept research is warranted. Findings indicate that indeed the concept has potential for significant reductions in delay (and cost due to delay) in the N90 (NY/NJ) and SCT (Southern California) metroplexes. Delay reductions of nearly 26% are possible in N90 when 30% of the commercial airline flights are flexible (smartly selected by their low probability of connecting passengers); nearly 40% delay reduction is found when 50% of the flights are flexible. In the SCT metroplex, delay reductions estimates are greater. Greater reductions result at SCT since it is less constrained currently than N90, providing "more room" to take advantage of flexibility. Using the flexible operations concept for on-demand/air taxi and General Aviation flights were found to be beneficial at NY/NJ, indicating the flexible operations concepts may be useful to wide variety of users..

DeLaurentis, Daniel↗

NASA NTRS1985

Thickness of the particle swarm in cosmic ray air showers

The average dispersion in arrival time of air shower particles detected with a scintillator at an impact parameter r is described with accuracy 5-10% by the empirical formula sigma = Sigma sub to (1+r/r sub t) sup b, where Sigma sub to = 2.6 ns, r sub t = 30m and b = (1.94 + or - .08) (0.39 + or - .06) sec Theta, for r 2 km, 10 to the 8th power E 10 to the 11th power GeV, and Theta 60 deg. (E is the primary energy and theta is the zenith angle). The amount of fluctuation in sigma sub t due to fluctuations in the level of origin and shower development is less than 20%. These results provide a basis for estimating the impact parameters of very larger showers with data from very small detector arrays (mini-arrays). The energy of such showers can then be estimated from the local particle density. The formula also provides a basis for estimating the angular resolution of air shower array-telescopes.

Linsley, J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

An Online Approach to Solve the Dynamic Vehicle Routing Problem with Stochastic Trip Requests for Paratransit Services

Many transit agencies operating paratransit and microtransit services have to respond to trip requests that arrive in real-time, which entails solving hard combinatorial and sequential decision-making problems under uncertainty. To avoid decisions that lead to significant inefficiency in the long term, vehicles should be allocated to requests by optimizing a non-myopic utility function or by batching requests together and optimizing a myopic utility function. While the former approach is typically offline, the latter can be performed online. We point out two major issues with such approaches when applied to paratransit services in practice. First, it is difficult to batch paratransit requests together as they are temporally sparse. Second, the environment in which transit agencies operate changes dynamically (e.g., traffic conditions can change over time), causing the estimates that are learned offline to become stale. To address these challenges, we propose a fully online approach to solve the dynamic vehicle routing problem (DVRP) with time windows and stochastic trip requests that is robust to changing environmental dynamics by construction. We focus on scenarios where requests are relatively sparse—our problem is motivated by applications to paratransit services. We formulate DVRP as a Markov decision process and use Monte Carlo tree search to evaluate actions for any given state. Accounting for stochastic requests while optimizing a non-myopic utility function is computationally challenging; indeed, the action space for such a problem is intractably large in practice. To tackle the large action space, we leverage the structure of the problem to design heuristics that can sample promising actions for the tree search. Our experiments using real-world data from our partner agency show that the proposed approach outperforms existing state-of-the-art approaches both in terms of performance and robustness.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2013

A Major Solar Eruptive Event in July 2012: Defining Extreme Space Weather Scenarios

A key goal for space weather studies is to define severe and extreme conditions that might plausibly afflict human technology. On 23 July 2012, solar active region 1520 (approx. 141 deg W heliographic longitude) gave rise to a powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) with an initial speed that was determined to be 2500+/-500 km/s. The eruption was directed away from Earth toward 125 deg W longitude. STEREO-A sensors detected the CME arrival only about 19 h later and made in situ measurements of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field. In this paper, we address the question of what would have happened if this powerful interplanetary event had been Earthward directed. Using a well-proven geomagnetic storm forecast model, we find that the 23-24 July event would certainly have produced a geomagnetic storm that was comparable to the largest events of the twentieth century (Dst approx. - 500 nT). Using plausible assumptions about seasonal and time-of-day orientation of the Earth's magnetic dipole, the most extreme modeled value of storm-time disturbance would have been Dst= - 1182 nT. This is considerably larger than estimates for the famous Carrington storm of 1859. This finding has far reaching implications because it demonstrates that extreme space weather conditions such as those during March of 1989 or September of 1859 can happen even during a modest solar activity cycle such as the one presently underway. We argue that this extreme event should immediately be employed by the space weather community to model severe space weather effects on technological systems such as the electric power grid.

solar longitude↗

NASA NTRS1976

Structure of the lunar mantle

The structure of the lunar mantle is examined by using data on the decay of shear wave amplitude with distance and the relative arrival times of P and S waves. The new analysis confirms a previous lunar model based primarily upon travel times and more closely defines certain properties of the lunar mantle. A negative shear wave velocity gradient of 0.0013 (km/s)/km, shear wave Q of 4000, and Poisson's ratio of 0.250 plus or minus 0.025 are found for the upper mantle, which lies between the depths of 60 and 300 km. A rapid decrease of shear wave velocity with increasing depth is observed starting at around a 300-km depth, associated with a lower Q for shear waves. Poisson's ratio in the lower part of the middle mantle, which extends to a depth of about 1000 km, is estimated to be 0.36 plus or minus 0.02.

Nakamura, Y.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Vertical and Horizontal Wind Structure Prior to and During the 1997/1998 ENSO Event

Analyses of ECMWF and satellite wind products are used to investigate low frequency fluctuations in the wind fields immediately preceding and during the 1997/1998 ENSO event. An extended EOF analysis of the horizontal and vertical wind structure that allows for the study of propagating features indicates that the dominant mode of variability established in the lower levels of the atmosphere is a convergence in the central tropical Pacific. At mid-levels, the westerlies increase with time over most of the equatorial Pacific, and there are closed cyclonic features on either side of the equator. At upper levels, the flow tends to become divergent across the equatorial Pacific, and there is a strong flow from the northwest Pacific across Indonesia that then turns to the west along the equator in the Indian Ocean. The addition of satellite data for improved surface wind estimates reveal that the Indian Ocean winds were anomalously strong during the winter preceding the initiation of the ENSO event. An analysis of the momentum convergence flux at the surface indicates a very strong anomaly 9 months prior to the ENSO event that begins in the western Indian Ocean and propagates to the east, arriving over the Pacific warm pool area coincident with the beginning of the El Nino. Changes in the near surface thermal and water vapor structure over the Indian Ocean during this period will also be discussed.

Adamec, David↗

NASA NTRS1996

An Atmospheric Tape Recorder: The Imprint of Tropical Tropopause Temperatures on Stratospheric Water Vapor

We describe observations of tropical stratospheric water vapor q that show clear evidence of large-scale upward advection of the signal from annual fluctuations in the effective 'entry mixing ratio' q(sub E) of air entering the tropical stratosphere. In other words, air is 'marked,' on emergence above the highest cloud tops, like a signal recorded on an upward moving magnetic tape. We define q(sub E) as the mean water vapor mixing ratio, at the tropical tropopause, of air that will subsequently rise and enter the stratospheric 'overworld' at about 400 K. The observations show a systematic phase lag, increasing with altitude, between the annual cycle in q(sub E) and the annual cycle in q at higher altitudes. The observed phase lag agrees with the phase lag calculated assuming advection by the transformed Eulerian-mean vertical velocity of a q(sub E) crudely estimated from 100-hPa temperatures, which we use as a convenient proxy for tropopause temperatures. The phase agreement confirms the overall robustness of the calculation and strongly supports the tape recorder hypothesis. Establishing a quantitative link between q(sub E) and observed tropopause temperatures, however, proves difficult because the process of marking the tape depends subtly on both small- and large-scale processes. The tape speed, or large-scale upward advection speed, has a substantial annual variation and a smaller variation due to the quasi-biennial oscillation, which delays or accelerates the arrival of the signal by a month or two in the middle stratosphere. As the tape moves upward, the signal is attenuated with an e-folding time of about 7 to 9 months between 100 and 50 hPa and about 15 to 18 months between 50 and 20 hPa, constraining possible orders of magnitude both of vertical diffusion K(sub z) and of rates of mixing in from the extratropics. For instance, if there were no mixing in, then K(sub z) would be in the range 0.03-0.09 m(exp 2)/s; this is an upper bound on K(sub z).

Mote, Philip W.↗