AI Surrogate Model for Distributed Computing Workloads
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97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
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Operator versus computer control of adaptive automation
Adaptive automation refers to real-time allocation of functions between the human operator and automated subsystems. The article reports the results of a series of experiments whose aim is to examine the effects of adaptive automation on operator performance during multi-task flight simulation, and to provide an empirical basis for evaluations of different forms of adaptive logic. The combined results of these studies suggest several things. First, it appears that either excessively long, or excessively short, adaptation cycles can limit the effectiveness of adaptive automation in enhancing operator performance of both primary flight and monitoring tasks. Second, occasional brief reversions to manual control can counter some of the monitoring inefficiency typically associated with long cycle automation, and further, that benefits of such reversions can be sustained for some time after return to automated control. Third, no evidence was found that the benefits of such reversions depend on the adaptive logic by which long-cycle adaptive switches are triggered.
Hilburn, Brian↗
Multi-Source Autonomous Response for Targeting and Monitoring of Volcanic Activity
The study of volcanoes is important for both purely scientific and human survival reasons. From a scientific standpoint, volcanic gas and ash emissions contribute significantly to the terrestrial atmosphere. Ash depositions and lava flows can also greatly affect local environments. From a human survival standpoint, many people live within the reach of active volcanoes, and therefore can be endangered by both atmospheric (ash, debris) toxicity and lava flow. There are many potential information sources that can be used to determine how to best monitor volcanic activity worldwide. These are of varying temporal frequency, spatial regard, method of access, and reliability. The problem is how to incorporate all of these inputs in a general framework to assign/task/reconfigure assets to monitor events in a timely fashion. In situ sensing can provide a valuable range of complementary information such as seismographic, discharge, acoustic, and other data. However, many volcanoes are not instrumented with in situ sensors, and those that have sensor networks are restricted to a relatively small numbers of point sensors. Consequently, ideal volcanic study synergistically combines space and in situ measurements. This work demonstrates an effort to integrate spaceborne sensing from MODIS (Terra and Aqua), ALI (EO-1), Worldview-2, and in situ sensing in an automated scheme to improve global volcano monitoring. Specifically, it is a "sensor web" concept in which a number of volcano monitoring systems are linked together to monitor volcanic activity more accurately, and this activity measurement automatically tasks space assets to acquire further satellite imagery of ongoing volcanic activity. A general framework was developed for evidence combination that accounts for multiple information sources in a scientist-directed fashion to weigh inputs and allocate observations based on the confidence of an events occurrence, rarity of the event at that location, and other scientists' inputs. The software framework uses multiple source languages and is a general framework for combining inputs and incrementally submitting observation requests/reconfigurations, accounting for prior requests. The autonomous aspect of operations is unique, especially in the context of the wide range of inputs that includes manually inputted electronic reports (such as the Air Force Weather Advisories), automated satellite-based detection methods (such as MODVOLC and GOESVOLC), and in situ sensor networks.
Davies, Ashley G.↗
FORCE Update 2024
The Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite is the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Program flagship tool suite for technoeconomic IES analysis of IES. This tool suite is useful for analysis designed to evaluate and improve the technoeconomics of energy production systems, particularly for systems including nuclear technology. In this report, we document the development activity for the FORCE tool suite to extend its capabilities as performed during fiscal year 2024. In addition to reliability and accessibility, capability is one of the three standards guiding the development of the FORCE tool suite and the software codes that are its constituent parts. Extending the capabilities of the FORCE tool suite allows analysis both within the IES program as well as industry, university, and laboratory partners to perform analysis with more accuracy, insight, and impactful narrative. Four areas of capability development were the focus of activity this year: economic parameter uncertainty quantification, multiresolution analysis, components-to-optimization workflow automation, and statespace construction workflows for real-time optimal control. In economic parameter uncertainty quantification, the ability of HERON to capture risk due to scenarios (weather and energy demand uncertainty) was expanded to also include uncertainties in financial parameters such as capital cost or operation and maintenance costs. By including these sources of uncertainty, which are sometimes very large compared with scenario uncertainty, HERON is better able to capture the risk posed by investment in various IES technology. Because of this, analysts can also consider the reduction in risks that can be realized by choice of some technologies. In multiresolution analysis, development activity extended on work completed previously. In fiscal year 2023, methods for decomposing time series signals, such as demand, solar and wind availability, and price profiles, were analyzed and down-selected to those most effective at splitting signals into different resolutions. These resolutions allow considering the influence of different energy demand and supply behaviors across different time scales. For example, energy demand might be divided into seasonal, weekly, and hourly profiles. In fiscal year 2024, this preliminary work was extended and implemented within the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) risk and uncertainty analysis platform, which is used throughout the FORCE framework. This development of the “multi-resolution time series analysis” (MR-TSA) module in RAVEN allows training synthetic history generators on complex time series. These synthetic history generators can then be used in HERON for generating scenarios that represent possible market and weather scenarios that can be analyzed on different time scales. We envision completing this work in the future, implementing multiresolution dispatch optimization strategies that can make the most beneficial use of these stratified time histories. In components-to-optimization workflow development, workflows for translating user inputs of components into algorithms for algebraic optimization were selected and implemented. Similar algorithms within the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) were separated from the main code base of HERON and gathered with the components-to-optimization workflows in the new Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE) software library. This modularization allows FORCE users to analyze dispatch optimization and energy system duty cycles independently of HERON, which previously was a burdensome task. Additionally, these dispatch optimization algorithms, set up in an independent library, can now be used across all software applications within FORCE, especially including the real-time optimal control software Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA). Allowing FORCE software to share dispatch optimization algorithms within a single library allows for improved software maintenance and reliability. In statespace characterization workflow development, alternative workflows for optimizing dispatch with additional technical accuracy was the focus, particularly to improve the real-time optimization decision making in ORCA. Using algorithms and workflows initially developed for the Feasible Actuator Range Modifier (FARM), workflows for determining the statespace representation of IES were identified and demonstrated. The resulting dispatch optimization required a more robust optimization algorithm than that originally used in HERON (and moved to DOVE), which required adding an alternate workflow to DOVE that can more accurately match the behavior of physical systems using a partial differential equation representation. In conclusion, capability developments in the FORCE tool suite in fiscal year 2024 have improved the ability of the FORCE tool suite to perform
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
The human role in space. Volume 2: Research analysis and technology report
The human role in space was studied. The role and the degree of direct involvement of humans that will be required in future space missions are investigated. Valid criteria for allocating functional activities between humans and machines were established. The technology requirements, economics, and benefits of the human presence in space was examined. Topics discussed include: human qualifications for space activities; specific project assessments; technology requirements and tasks; and generalization on human roles in space.
Source record↗
Intelligent interfaces for tactical airborne platforms
Enhanced capabilities of tactical airborne platforms have resulted in increased number of aircrew tasks, greater task complexity, and increased time-stress in task performance. Embedded intelligence in the aircrew-vehicle interface (AVI) can help alleviate aircrew workload and enhance aircrew performance by: (1) optimizing the exchange of information between the aircrew and the onboard automation; and (2) adaptively allocating functions between aircrew and automation in response to situational demands. Intelligent interface issues are addressed in this report such as: (1) how to ensure that the aircrew can cope with the information influx; (2) how to present/portray both situational and internal status information; (3) how to allocate functions between the aircrew and the onboard automation; and (4) how to explain reasoning processes employed by onboard intelligence to the aircrew.
Madni, A.↗
A Meta-Analytic Approach to Investigating the Relationship Between Human-Automation Trust and Attention Allocation
Trust and attention allocation are pivotal determinants in human-automation interaction. However, there are scarce empirical findings regarding the relationship between trust and attention allocation. Observations from our previous work suggested there may be a negative correlation between trust in automation and eye movement towards automation, though no formal analysis of these data had been conducted to quantify this relationship. The present meta-analysis examined the relationship between three dimensions of trust in automation (performance, process, and purpose) and visual attention allocation to the automation. Specifically, we applied Cumming’s (2014) meta-analysis technique to combine evidence across three experiments. Results indicated a negative correlation between trust in automation and visual sampling of the automated system monitoring task for performance-based trust, but not for process- or purpose-based trust. These findings suggest that operators scanned the automation’s behavior less frequently when indicating higher performance-based trust towards the automation.
Human-Autonomy Teaming (HAT)↗
An Integrated Decision-Making Model for Categorizing Weather Products and Decision Aids
The National Airspace System s capacity will experience considerable growth in the next few decades. Weather adversely affects safe air travel. The FAA and NASA are working to develop new technologies that display weather information to support situation awareness and optimize pilot decision-making in avoiding hazardous weather. Understanding situation awareness and naturalistic decision-making is an important step in achieving this goal. Information representation and situation time stress greatly influence attentional resource allocation and working memory capacity, potentially obstructing accurate situation awareness assessments. Three naturalistic decision-making theories were integrated to provide an understanding of the levels of decision making incorporated in three operational situations and two conditions. The task characteristics associated with each phase of flight govern the level of situation awareness attained and the decision making processes utilized. Weather product s attributes and situation task characteristics combine to classify weather products according to the decision-making processes best supported. In addition, a graphical interface is described that affords intuitive selection of the appropriate weather product relative to the pilot s current flight situation.
Elgin, Peter D.↗
Design for Reliability (DfR) in Space Life Support
The engineering process of Design for Reliability (DfR) is well established in the automotive and aerospace industries. DfR should be useful in the future development of space life support systems. DfR is a sequence of tasks that develop system requirements and plan reliability analysis and testing. First and fundamentally, the reliability requirement is defined. Next the system reliability model is developed, often using a reliability block diagram. The overall system reliability requirement is allocated to the subsystems and an estimate of the attainable reliability is made. This expected reliability can be improved by simplifying the design by removing components or by replacing less reliable components. Improving reliability can require difficult compromises, such as reducing performance requirements, increasing budget, or extending testing. The actual system reliability can be determined only by testing, which should continue long enough to provide the required confidence in the measured value. New systems often have unexpected design errors that cause failures in early testing. The usual reliability improvement process of testing, finding the failure modes, and redesigning to remove them reduces the failure rate and is referred to as “reliability growth.” After redesign has been completed, the system should be further tested to determine the actual achieved reliability more accurately. If the final system failure rate is too high, redundant systems can be used to improve overall operational reliability. Adding redundancy simply to increase the one- or two-fault tolerance metric may sometimes reduce reliability. Reliability can be improved in three ways: redesigning the system to include more reliable subsystems and components, reliability growth testing and failure mode removal, and by using parallel redundant systems. DfR should combine these approaches to achieve the required reliability while managing performance, cost, and schedule.
Reliability↗
Design for Reliability (DfR) in Space Life Support
The engineering process of Design for Reliability (DfR) is well established in the automotive and aerospace industries. DfR should be useful in the future development of space life support systems. DfR is a sequence of tasks that develop system requirements and plan reliability analysis and testing. First and fundamentally, the reliability requirement is defined. Next the system reliability model is developed, often using a reliability block diagram. The overall system reliability requirement is allocated to the subsystems and an estimate of the attainable reliability is made. This expected reliability can be improved by simplifying the design by removing components or by replacing less reliable components. Improving reliability can require difficult compromises, such as reducing performance requirements, increasing budget, or extending testing. The actual system reliability can be determined only by testing, which should continue long enough to provide the required confidence in the measured value. New systems often have unexpected design errors that cause failures in early testing. The usual reliability improvement process of testing, finding the failure modes, and redesigning to remove them reduces the failure rate and is referred to as “reliability growth.” After redesign has been completed, the system should be further tested to determine the actual achieved reliability more accurately. If the final system failure rate is too high, redundant systems can be used to improve overall operational reliability. Adding redundancy simply to increase the one- or two-fault tolerance metric may sometimes reduce reliability. Reliability can be improved in three ways: redesigning the system to include more reliable subsystems and components, reliability growth testing and failure mode removal, and by using parallel redundant systems. DfR should combine these approaches to achieve the required reliability while managing performance, cost, and schedule.
Reliability↗
Achieving balanced execution through runtime detection of performance variation
Systems, apparatuses, and methods for achieving balanced execution in a multi-node cluster through runtime detection of performance variation are described. During a training phase, performance counters and an amount of time spent waiting for synchronization is monitored for a plurality of tasks for each node of the multi-node cluster. These values are utilized to generate a model which correlates the values of the performance counters to the amount of time spent waiting for synchronization. Once the model is built, the values of the performance counters are monitored for a period of time at the start of each task, and these values are input into the model. The model generates a prediction of whether a given node is on the critical path. If the given node is predicted to be on the critical path, the power allocation of the given node is increased.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Study of design and control of remote manipulators. Part 2: Vibration considerations in manipulator design
An investigation is reported involving a mathematical procedure using 4 x 4 transformation matrices for analyzing the vibrations of flexible manipulators. Previous studies with the procedure are summarized and the method is extended to include flexible joints as well as links, and to account for the effects of various power transmission schemes. A systematic study of the allocation of structural material and the placement of components such as motors and gearboxes was undertaken using the analytical tools developed. As one step in this direction the variables which relate the vibration parameters of the arm to the task and environment of the arm were isolated and nondimensionalized. The 4 x 4 transformation matrices were also used to develop analytical expressions for the terms of the complete 6 x 6 compliance matrix for the case of two flexible links joined by a rotating joint, flexible about its axis of rotation.
Book, W. J.↗
Laser geodynamic satellite/thermal/optical vibrational analyses and testing. Volume 2: Technical report, book 3
The overall plan for accomplishing the various tests required to achieve the program objectives and tasks of the LAGEOS thermal/optical/vibration analysis and test program is described. The requirements for each test are identified for the purpose of program review for the design and fabrication of the required test article and test fixtures, for the allocation of test facilities, equipment and expendables, and for the generation of the detail test procedures by which the specified data will be obtained at specified test conditions. The current internal test program schedules, by which the various individual preparatory subtasks are to be accomplished to ensure that the individual test will be conducted within the time period required to meet program objectives are included.
Source record↗
Direct broadcast satellite-radio: Portable and mobile reception trade-offs
There has been considerable international effort in the areas of system studies, system development, and regulatory work for a Direct Broadcast Satellite Radio (DBS-R). An important milestone will be the 1992 World Radio Administrative Conference (WARC 1992) consideration of frequency allocation in the 500 - 3000 MHz range for such a service. There is an interagency agreement between Voice of America and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration for a coordinated program in DBS-R. This program includes seven tasks: systems tradeoff studies, propagation measurements, satellite experiment and demonstration, receiver development, market studies, regulatory studies, and WARC preparations. The findings of ongoing work under the first task, systems tradeoff studies, are discussed. Topics covered include digital bit rate and audio quality, propagation considerations and link margin estimates for portable reception, link margin estimates for mobile reception, coverage, and satellite size and cost estimates for a regional DBS-R coverage example.
Golshan, Nasser↗
International organisation of ocean programs: Making a virtue of necessity
When faced with the needs of climate prediction, a sharp contrast is revealed between existing networks for the observation of the atmosphere and for the ocean. Even the largest and longest-serving ocean data networks were created for their value to a specific user (usually with a defence, fishing or other maritime purpose) and the major compilations of historical data have needed extensive scientific input to reconcile the differences and deficiencies of the various sources. Vast amounts of such data remain inaccessible or unusable. Observations for research purposes have been generally short lived and funded on the basis of single initiatives. Even major programs such as FGGE, TOGA and WOCE have been driven by the dedicated interest of a surprisingly small number of individuals, and have been funded from a wide variety of temporary allocations. Recognising the global scale of ocean observations needed for climate research, international cooperation and coordination is an unavoidable necessity, resulting in the creation of such bodies as the Committee for Climatic Changes and the Ocean (CCCO), with the tasks of: (1) defining the scientific elements of research and ocean observation which meet the needs of climate prediction and amelioration; (2) translating these elements into terms of programs, projects or requirements that can be understood and participated in by individual nations and marine agencies; and (3) the sponsorship of specialist groups to facilitate the definition of research programs, the implementation of cooperative international activity and the dissemination of results.
Mcewan, Angus↗
Space Suit CO2 Washout During Intravehicular Activity
Space suit carbon dioxide (CO2) washout refers to the removal of CO2 gas from the oral-nasal area of a suited astronaut's (or crewmember's) helmet using the suit's ventilation system. Inadequate washout of gases can result in diminished mental/cognitive abilities as well as headaches and light headedness. In addition to general discomfort, these ailments can impair an astronaut s ability to perform mission-critical tasks ranging from flying the space vehicle to performing lunar extravehicular activities (EVAs). During design development for NASA s Constellation Program (CxP), conflicting requirements arose between the volume of air flow that the new Orion manned space vehicle is allocated to provide to the suited crewmember and the amount of air required to achieve CO2 washout in a space suit. Historically, space suits receive 6.0 actual cubic feet per minute (acfm) of air flow, which has adequately washed out CO2 for EVAs. For CxP, the Orion vehicle will provide 4.5 acfm of air flow to the suit. A group of subject matter experts (SM Es) among the EVA Systems community came to an early consensus that 4.5 acfm may be acceptable for low metabolic rate activities. However, this value appears very risky for high metabolic rates, hence the need for further analysis and testing. An analysis was performed to validate the 4.5 acfm value and to determine if adequate CO2 washout can be achieved with the new suit helmet design concepts. The analysis included computational fluid dynamic (CFD) modeling cases, which modeled the air flow and breathing characteristics of a human wearing suit helmets. Helmet testing was performed at the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, to provide a gross-level validation of the CFD models. Although there was not a direct data correlation between the helmet testing and the CFD modeling, the testing data showed trends that are very similar to the CFD modeling. Overall, the analysis yielded results that were better than anticipated, with a few unexpected findings that could not easily be explained. Results indicate that 4.5 acfm is acceptable for CO2 washout and helmet design. This paper summarizes the results of this CO2 washout study.
Augustine, Phillip M.↗
The Myth of Fungible FTE: A Quantitative Assessment of Matrixed Resource Allocation
Matrix organizations allow scientific facilities to share specialized personnel across projects, operations, maintenance, and strategic initiatives. Nominal staffing allocations, however, may not capture the schedule consequences of fragmented individual commitments, limited access to specialist groups, and intermittent availability of key decision makers. We developed a stochas- tic, daily-time-step simulation of a hypothetical medium-sized accelerator-facility project com- prising sequential phases and parallel tasks. Each task requires role-specific work measured in FTE-days. Ordinary personnel may be unavailable because they contribute concurrently to other institutional activities, while designated key roles have independently specified daily un- availability probabilities. An organization-wide priority factor scales the number of people from each functional group who can effectively contribute to the project. It is interpreted as a composite proxy for project access and workforce fragmentation across competing commit- ments. We examined project completion time as a function of this factor and Project Lead unavailability using 100 Monte Carlo runs per condition. Increasing priority factor from 0.1 to 1.0 reduced median completion time from 1708.5 days (interquartile range 1681.5–1735.25) to 390 days (interquartile range 379–399). At priority factor = 0.1, increasing Project Lead unavailability from 0.5 to 0.9 increased median completion time from 1713.5 days (interquartile range 1691–1733.25) to 4,417 days (interquartile range 4271.75–4550.5). The model quantifies the commonly expected sensitivity of project schedules to fragmented resource commitments and limited coordination availability. Within this model, the results also indicate a possible threshold regime in which small increases in workforce availability yield only modest sched- ule improvements until sufficient capacity becomes accessible, after which project performance improves sharply. With further validation and calibration, this quantitative framework could support resource-allocation decisions during initial project planning and subsequent schedule rebaselining.
Bai, Mei [SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory (SL↗
Comparison of Deterministic and Statistical Models for Water Quality Compliance Forecasting in the San Joaquin River Basin, California
Model selection for water quality forecasting depends on many factors including analyst expertise and cost, stakeholder involvement and expected performance. Water quality forecasting in arid river basins is especially challenging given the importance of protecting beneficial uses in these environments and the livelihood of agricultural communities. In the agriculture-dominated San Joaquin River Basin of California, real-time salinity management (RTSM) is a state-sanctioned program that helps to maximize allowable salt export while protecting existing basin beneficial uses of water supply. The RTSM strategy supplants the federal total maximum daily load (TMDL) approach that could impose fines associated with exceedances of monthly and annual salt load allocations of up to $1 million per year based on average year hydrology and salt load export limits. The essential components of the current program include the establishment of telemetered sensor networks, a web-based information system for sharing data, a basin-scale salt load assimilative capacity forecasting model and institutional entities tasked with performing weekly forecasts of river salt assimilative capacity and scheduling west-side drainage export of salt loads. Web-based information portals have been developed to share model input data and salt assimilative capacity forecasts together with increasing stakeholder awareness and involvement in water quality resource management activities in the river basin. Two modeling approaches have been developed simultaneously. The first relies on a statistical analysis of the relationship between flow and salt concentration at three compliance monitoring sites and the use of these regression relationships for forecasting. The second salt load forecasting approach is a customized application of the Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF), a watershed water quality simulation model that has been configured to estimate daily river salt assimilative capacity and to provide decision support for real-time salinity management at the watershed level. Analysis of the results from both model-based forecasting approaches over a period of five years shows that the regression-based forecasting model, run daily Monday to Friday each week, provided marginally better performance. However, the regression-based forecasting model assumes the same general relationship between flow and salinity which breaks down during extreme weather events such as droughts when water allocation cutbacks among stakeholders are not evenly distributed across the basin. A recent test case shows the utility of both models in dealing with an exceedance event at one compliance monitoring site recently introduced in 2020.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗