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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

A Bootstrap Approach to Quantifying Reliabilities and Uncertainties of Complex Systems

While much work has been done in analyzing margins and uncertainties at the component level, a gap exists in NNSA methodology relating component level reliabilities and uncertainties to system level reliability and uncertainty. This paper shows how component level reliability data can be combined via a bootstrap analysis to estimate system level reliabilities and uncertainties. The performance of the bootstrap for this problem is validated through simulation studies. This paper extends the original work of Crowder by including sensitivity analyses related to changes in samples sizes and component failure probabilities. The use of the bootstrap as a decision-making tool is thus developed by quantifying the effect of such changes on system reliability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

From Data to Knowledge: A Graph-Based Reliability Approach to Assess System Health

With the goal of maximizing plant reliability and availability, complex systems such as nuclear power plants continuously monitor and record the performance and the health status of many components, assets, and systems. Such data may take the form of online monitoring data, condition reports, and maintenance reports and it carries the potential to provide system engineers with insights into anomalous behaviors or degradation trends as well as the possible causes behind them and to predict their direct consequences. The analysis of such data poses however few challenges. While some of these challenges are technical in nature (i.e., data are often distributed over several physical servers or databases), others are conceptual in nature (i.e., data elements come in different formats, numeric or textual), and measured values have different scales (e.g., vibration spectra and oil temperature). This paper directly tackles these challenges, and it focuses on the integration of all these data elements in order to assist plant system engineers in analyzing component, assets, and systems performances and optimize maintenance activities. This is performed by 1) extracting knowledge from textual data via technical language processing methods, and 2) quantifying system, asset, and component health from numeric condition-based data. We rely on model-based system engineering (MBSE) models of systems and assets to identify their architecture and functional (i.e., cause and effect) relations. Numeric and textual data elements are then associated with an MBSE graph element, based on their nature. This bonding of MBSE models and data elements constitutes a first-of-its-kind knowledge graph of a nuclear power plants system, with data elements being organized in a structured manner that enables system engineers to identify cause-effect trends in data elements and carry out appropriate actions in response.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Impacts of Resilience Architectures for Extreme-Scale Storage Systems

The Scientific Modeling and Simulation of Storage project focused on improving our ability to store information reliably. The project, done jointly at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Los Alamos National Laboratories, and Sandia National Laboratories, had the main goal of transforming the art of reliable storage system construction into a more precise science. Along those lines, the project developed numerous tools to expose problems in existing systems; these tools, when applied to the state of the art, uncovered numerous flaws in existing approaches, showing that they both are error prone and in some cases contain serious design flaws. The project also led to the creation of new approaches in reliable system construction. One such approach shows how a storage system can adapt its behavior on the fly to deliver higher performance when there are few underlying failures, but then act more conservatively when more failures are occurring to ensure the safe storage of user data. Another approach develops a storage system consistency model which both delivers high performance but high levels of reliability, a significant advance over previous approaches. Overall, the tools developed within the project advanced the science of reliable storage design, and the new approaches that resulted advanced the science of storage system construction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of PV Module Connector Failures on Cost and Performance of Utility Scale Photovoltaic Systems

The reliability, cost and performance of electrical connectors are a concern in all types of electrical systems, and demands on connectors used on photovoltaic (PV) systems include that connectors maintain electrical conductivity and physical strength, endure ultraviolet sunlight and high ambient temperature, and resist moisture and chemical intrusion over a very long (>25 year) performance period. Connector failures increase operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and reduce plant production, but connector failure can also cause safety and liability problems, which are of greater concern. This work results from a three-year collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Office (SETO) under Agreements #39035 and #38531 "Connector Reliability Across the US Solar Sector." a multi-pronged investigation of PV connector health across the US (see https://energy.sandia.gov/pvconnectors/). This report presents derivation of a Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) that models failure modes and frequencies (how often failure occurs), estimates O&M costs and lost production associated with connector failures, and then calculates the effect that PV module connectors can have on Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). The model is informed with initial data from quantitative assessment of failure rates, root causes and mechanisms, in-situ diagnostics and data collection, lab-based forensics, and interviews with PV connector manufacturers and plant operators. SNL conducted site inspections at multiple utility-scale sites in different climates and subjected field samples of new, used, and degraded connectors to visual and electrical characterization. EPRI conducted metallurgical analysis of the pin and sleeve conductors to study failure-induced morphological and compositional changes. There is in general a shortage of statistically valid data, but data from PVROM database maintained by SNL was sufficient to ascertain failure rates and lost production as well as provide qualitative insight in its curated maintenance records. This report details the structure of the mathematical model but the sources of data to inform the model will continue to evolve. Analysis of a 100 MW PV plant is provided as an example of the use of the model, with results indicating that connectors are responsible for Annualized O&M Costs of $\$$71,933/year; Annualized Unit O&M Costs of $\$$0.72/kW/year; that a Reserve Account of $\$$187,220 should be available to fund repairs related to connectors; that connectors add $\$$1,494,004 to the Net Present Value of the O&M Costs (project life); and that O&M related to connectors adds about $\$$0.00088/kWh to the Levelized Cost of Energy. The impact of this model is to provide a tool to make the US solar sector more robust by quantifying and monetizing the reliability risks to utility-scale PV systems posed by poorly installed, mismatched and/or poorly designed and manufactured connectors. The TEA provides a model incorporating failure statistics, O&M cost data, and lost production into a single figure of merit, informing decisions and enabling practitioners to optimize cost and performance trade-offs. Stakeholders include connector manufacturers, system designers and equipment specifiers, standards bodies, installers and O&M providers, investors and insurance underwriters. This report supports continued growth of PV predicated on assurances that properly installed and maintained PV system connectors are safe and reliable. The project team is proposing future work including accelerated testing of connectors and expanding the approach taken here to other PV system components, such as TEA for rapid shut-down devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven modeling of municipal water system responses to hydroclimate extremes

Sustainable western US municipal water system (MWS) management depends on quantifying the impacts of supply and demand dynamics on system infrastructure reliability and vulnerability. Systems modeling can replicate the interactions but extensive parameterization, high complexity, and long development cycles present barriers to widespread adoption. To address these challenges, we develop the Machine Learning Water Systems Model (ML-WSM) – a novel application of data-driven modeling for MWS management. We apply the ML-WSM framework to the Salt Lake City, Utah water system, where we benchmark prediction performance on the seasonal response of reservoir levels, groundwater withdrawal, and imported water requests to climate anomalies at a daily resolution against an existing systems model. The ML-WSM accurately predicts the seasonal dynamics of all components; especially during supply-limiting conditions (KGE > 0.88, PBias < ±3%). Extreme wet conditions challenged model skill but the ML-WSM communicated the appropriate seasonal trends and relationships to component thresholds (e.g., reservoir dead pool). The model correctly classified nearly all instances of vulnerability (83%) and peak severity (100%), encouraging its use as a guidance tool that complements systems models for evaluating the influences of climate on MWS performance.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Novel Method for Setting Meaningful Thresholds for RMS-Energy Oscillation Detectors

Oscillation detection and mitigation is a crucial aspect of reliable power system operation. Several transmission system operators and reliability coordinators use the RMS-energy method of oscillation detection, but the process of setting thresholds is time and labor intensive. The current industry practice in the United States is to set thresholds based on the RMS-energy's value during ambient conditions, which can often lead to nuisance alarms that require thresholds to be manually retuned. In this paper, we propose a method for setting RMS-energy thresholds that directly accounts for oscillation amplitudes specified by the user. A theoretical analysis of the statistical properties of the RMS-energy incorporates these user-specified amplitudes, resulting in thresholds that reliably detect oscillations of interest while avoiding nuisance alarms. Theoretical results are validated with simulated measurements and the real-world practicality of the method is established with publicly available field-measured data from the Grid Event Signature Library.

Follum, James D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Red-Ox Robust SOFC Stacks for Affordable, Reliable Distributed Generation Power Systems

While SOFC systems are expected to operate reliably and with limited degradation in steady state or transient performance, SOFC stacks may ultimately fail due to the loss of structural integrity of one or several of the cells as a result of the weakening of the materials and interfaces due to physico-chemical changes that occur during continuous operation as a result of plastic and creep deformations, modification of the temperature profile, and/or degradation of the electrochemical performance of the cells. Degradation mechanisms originating from the cell components include coarsening of the microstructure over time; decomposition of materials; chemical reaction of electrode materials with electrolyte at the interface; delamination from each other; and for the anode, coking and sulfur poisoning. Of all the reliability issues that may occur for SOFCs, the main limitation for Ni-based cermet anodes (e.g., NiO-YSZ) is the poor stability during reduction-oxidation (red-ox) cycling. This project was aimed at the development of ceramic anode SOFCs based on SFCM (SrFe0.2Co0.4Mo0.4O3), which is a conductive perovskite that is red-ox stable. Additionally, the project involved the development of a red-ox robust stack. Scale up of SFCM-based cells to a large format (10 cm by 10 cm) cell size was achieved as well as a maximum power density of 0.9 W/cm 2 at 600 °C (>0.6 W/cm 2 at 0.6 V). Up to a 10-cell stack was successfully assembled and demonstrated, and cells showed similar performance in reformed, pipeline natural gas as in hydrogen. Finally, a 3-cell stack was red-ox cycled without degradation for 40 cycles at ~600 °C.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2020

PV Reliability Lessons from 100,000 Systems

Despite the importance of reliability to the cost competitiveness of PV, large data sets enabling high-level investigation of the technology’s performance in the field are relatively scarce. Dirk C. Jordan, Chris Deline, Bill Marion and Teresa Barnes of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and Mark Bolinger of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory study a unique data set of 100,000 PV systems in the US, drawing out tips for better reliability that have relevance to other parts of the world.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Human-System Interface Risk Analysis Based on Redundancy-guided Systems-theoretic Hazard Analysis and Human Reliability Analysis

Human-system interfaces (HSIs) play an important role in enabling operators to communicate with the nuclear power plant (NPP) side. Getting the information required to understand a NPP’s current status or perform necessary actions for responding to a given operational context are representative operator tasks performed using HSIs. To date, HSIs have been mainly evaluated in the context of human reliability analysis (HRA). However, the current HSI evaluation that occurs during HRA may be challengeable on two fronts: (1) reflecting the unique characteristics of HSI systems and (2) considering situations in which HSIs are poorly operated due to software/hardware malfunctions. Accordingly, this study proposes an approach for specifically evaluating HSIs for digital instrumentation and controls (DI&C) systems, using Redundancy-guided Systems-theoretic Hazard Analysis (RESHA) and HRA. RESHA is a method for analyzing DI&C systems with redundancy features. In this study, we investigate how HSIs are evaluated in existing HRA methods, and what challenges exist in the current approaches. To better evaluate HSIs for DI&C systems, this study modifies the existing HSI evaluation process by additionally modeling the HSI back- and front- ends. In this paper, a HSI fault tree for the APR1400 DI&C system is introduced through a piping and instrumentation diagram. It then touches upon what aspects of the suggested method must be further researched.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

CHUWD-H v1.0: a comprehensive historical hourly weather database for U.S. urban energy system modeling

Reliable and continuous meteorological data are crucial for modeling the responses of energy systems and their components to weather and climate conditions, particularly in densely populated urban areas. However, existing long-term datasets often suffer from spatial and temporal gaps and inconsistencies, posing great challenges for detailed urban energy system modeling and cross-city comparison under realistic weather conditions. Here we introduce the Historical Comprehensive Hourly Urban Weather Database (CHUWD-H) v1.0, a 23-year (1998-2020) gap-free and quality-controlled hourly weather dataset covering 550 weather station locations across all urban areas in the contiguous United States. CHUWD-H v1.0 synthesizes hourly weather observations from stations with outputs from a physics-based solar radiation model and a reanalysis dataset through a multi-step gap filling approach. A 10-fold Monte Carlo cross-validation suggests that the accuracy of this gap filling approach surpasses that of conventional gap filling methods. Designed primarily for urban energy system modeling, CHUWD-H v1.0 should also support historical urban meteorological and climate studies, including the validation and evaluation of urban climate modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Robust Yule-Walker Method for Online Monitoring of Power System Electromechanical Modes of Oscillation

Reliable power system operation requires that system operators maintain a satisfactory small-signal stability margin at all times. Mode meters allow system operators to continuously monitor the stability margin by analyzing synchrophasor measurements. Experience with mode meters at the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) has revealed that mode meters sometimes suffer severe bias following transient disturbances. In this paper, a robust version of the Yule-Walker mode meter algorithm is proposed to mitigate this bias. The robust capability is introduced by modifying the estimator of the autocovariance sequence (ACS) on which the algorithm depends. Tests with field-measured data demonstrate that the robust Yule-Walker (RYW) algorithm significantly outperforms its conventional counterpart and is better able to provide system operators with accurate information about the system's stability margin.

Follum, James D.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of Emergency Diesel Generator Reliability on Microgrids and Building-Tied Systems

Microgrids are an emerging alternative as an energy backup system for critical electric loads and have improved performance compared to the traditional architecture where a single emergency diesel generator is tied to an individual building. Both architectures are dependent on the reliability of their individual generators and a quantitative and realistic comparison of the overall system reliability of the two architectures is lacking. Using recently published work on emergency diesel generator finite reliability, a quantitative methodology is presented to compare the reliability of a microgrid architecture based on centralized emergency diesel generators to the traditional approach of generators tied to individual buildings. Three system reliability performance metrics are calculated as a function of outage duration: (1) probability to meet 100% of the critical load; (2) expected fraction of lost load; and (3) probability to meet the highest priority critical loads. It is shown that stand-alone building-tied emergency diesel generators systems, even when two emergency diesel generators are used per building, cannot provide the reliability required to sustain critical loads for a grid outage lasting multiple days. Due to their network configuration and ability to share load, diesel generator-based microgrid configurations are estimated to have = 93% probability of powering all buildings for a 2-week outage there the individual building-tied emergency diesel generator architecture has a =20% probability. Microgrids do present other susceptibilities that are site specific and should be considered including vulnerabilities associated with the on-campus distribution system and cybersecurity.

backup power↗
DOE OSTI2025

High Efficiency and Transient Air Systems for Affordable Load-Following Heavy Duty Truck Fuel Cells

Hydrogen fuel cell powered vehicles are one of the potential paths to reducing vehicle emissions. An important subsystem of the hydrogen fuel cell system is an air handling system that provides the needed oxygen (in air) to react with hydrogen in the fuel cell stack for electric power generation. Today’s systems use an electric motor to power an air compressor that supplies oxygen to the fuel cell stack. This process requires significant electrical power and is the largest parasitic power loss in hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. In addition to parasitic power loss, hydrogen fuel cell systems often have reliability issues associated with the air handling system. Reliability is of significant concern for heavy duty applications (especially long-haul applications). This project aims to improve both the electrical power consumption and reliability of hydrogen fuel cell air handling systems to meet the needs of heavy duty on-highway vehicle applications.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Novel Air System for 300 kW Heavy Duty Fuel Cell

Hydrogen fuel cell powered vehicles for heavy duty trucks is a potential path for reducing heavy duty vehicle emissions in the future. The air handling system delivers the proper amount of air (oxygen) to react with fuel (hydrogen) in the fuel cell to produce power. Air delivery requires significant power and is the largest parasitic loss for a 300 kW fuel cell. Today’s systems use an electric motor to power an air compressor that supplies oxygen to the fuel cell stack. In addition to parasitic power loss, hydrogen fuel cell systems often have reliability issues associated with the air handling system. Reliability is of significant concern for heavy duty applications (especially long-haul applications). This project aims to improve both the electrical power consumption and reliability of hydrogen fuel cell air handling systems to meet the needs of heavy duty on-highway vehicle applications. The air handling is provided by a twin vortices series (TVS) compressor in addition to adding a TVS expander to recover waste heat energy back into the compressor. The final configuration includes a 600 V, 39 kW motor connected with a single shaft to the compressor and expander. This configuration reduced the total electrical power consumption from 48.6 kW to 37 kW at full load, 27 kW to 9 kW at half load and 0.44 kW to 0.22 kW at idle. The response time requirement was to be less than 2 seconds while the final demonstration yielded 0.62 sec. The study includes additional technologies including water dosing into the compressor, a recuperator and elimination of the intercooler.

Reich, Evan [Eaton Corporation, Southfield, MI (Un↗