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DOE OSTI2021

Creation of a prototype biomimetic fish to better understand impact trauma caused by hydropower turbine blade strikes

Biomimetic model organisms could be useful surrogates for live animals in many applications if the models have sufficient biofidelity. One such application is for use in field and laboratory tests of fish mortality associated with passage through hydropower turbines. Laboratory trials suggest that blade strikes are especially injurious and often causes mortality when fish are struck by thinner blades moving at higher velocities. Dose-response relationships have been created from these data, but the exact relationship between fish mortality and the actual forces enacted on fish during simulated blade strike testing remains unknown. Here, we describe the methods used to create a prototype biomimetic model fish composed of ballistic gelatin and covered with a surrogate skin to better approximate the biomechanical properties of a fish body. Frozen fish were scanned with high-fidelity laser scanners, and a 3D-printed, reusable mold was created from which to cast our gelatin model. Computed tomography scan data, imaged directly or taken from online data repositories, were also successfully used to create CAD models for use in additive manufacturing of molds. One 3-axis accelerometer was embedded into the gelatin to compare accelerometer data to dose-response data from previous laboratory research on live fish. The resulting model ( i.e. , Gelfish) had a statistically indistinguishable tissue durometer to that of real fish tissue and preliminary blade strike impact testing suggested its overall flexibility was similar to that of live fish. Gelfish was designed with biofidelity as its guiding principle and our results suggest initial experimentation was successful. Future research will include replication of initial Gelfish test results, quantitative measurement of model flexibility relative to real fish, and inclusion of surrogate skeletal structures to enhance biofidelity. Use of more sophisticated sensors would also better quantify the physical forces of blade strike impact and help determine how said forces correlate with rates of mortality observed during tests on live fish.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Indirect Search for Weakly Interacting Massive Particles in the Sun Using Upward-going Muons in NOvA

I present the first Dark Matter search results using the full data set collected with the upward-going muon trigger in NOvA. Weakly Interactive Massive Particles (WIMPs) are a theoretical non-baryonic form of Dark Matter. The nature of Dark Matter is one of the most exciting open questions in modern physics. Though its existence can be inferred by astrophysical evidence, its properties are not yet understood. If we assume that Dark Matter particles can produce Standard Model particles through their interactions, an indirect search can help shed light on this mystery.The NOvA collaboration has built a 14 kton, fine-grained, low-Z, total absorption tracking calorimeter at an off-axis angle to the NuMI neutrino beam. Even though the detector is optimized to observe electron neutrino appearance from a muon neutrino beam, it has a unique potential for more exotic searches given its excellent granularity and energy resolution and relatively low-energy neutrino thresholds. In fact, with an efficient upward-going muon trigger and sufficient background suppression offline, NOvA is capable of a competitive indirect Dark Matter search for low-mass WIMPs.The idea of the upward-going muon trigger is first to select high-quality muon tracks, then use the timing information of all of the hits of each track to estimate directionality. In this way, the background flux is suppressed by more than a factor of 10^5 at trigger level to a rate of approximately 1 Hz. To further optimize this search, we use only upward-going muons that point to the Sun, so our search occurs at night when the Sun is on the other side of the Earth. This strategy also allows us to use the time when the Sun is above the horizon as a control region to estimate the background. Ultimately, implementation of a cut based and maximum likelihood analysis provides a powerful tool for rejecting background and selecting a sample of neutrino-induced upward-going muons. The overall background rejection power achieved by the analysis is substantial and impressive. Starting with approximately 150,000 events per second, we reduced it to 40 events per year. Since no statistically significant excess was found, a 90\% C.L. upper limit on the expected muon flux of upward-going muons has been set using the upper limit on the number of events given the number of observed events in the signal region. Lastly, by assuming the theory behind the upward-going muon flux, a limit on the WIMP-nucleon spin-dependent cross-section in the Sun was estimated. Although the limits on the spin-dependent cross-section do not appear to be competitive with previous indirect Dark Matter searches, the upward-going muon flux limits are promising. The upward-going muon flux limits could extend these results to a broader class of models that are not specific to the dark matter theory but produce upward-going muons, leading to competitive results.

Principato, Cristiana↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Dark Energy Survey: Cosmology Results with ∼1500 New High-redshift Type Ia Supernovae Using the Full 5 yr Data Set

Abstract We present cosmological constraints from the sample of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) discovered and measured during the full 5 yr of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) SN program. In contrast to most previous cosmological samples, in which SNe are classified based on their spectra, we classify the DES SNe using a machine learning algorithm applied to their light curves in four photometric bands. Spectroscopic redshifts are acquired from a dedicated follow-up survey of the host galaxies. After accounting for the likelihood of each SN being an SN Ia, we find 1635 DES SNe in the redshift range 0.10 < z < 1.13 that pass quality selection criteria sufficient to constrain cosmological parameters. This quintuples the number of high-quality z > 0.5 SNe compared to the previous leading compilation of Pantheon+ and results in the tightest cosmological constraints achieved by any SN data set to date. To derive cosmological constraints, we combine the DES SN data with a high-quality external low-redshift sample consisting of 194 SNe Ia spanning 0.025 < z < 0.10. Using SN data alone and including systematic uncertainties, we find Ω M = 0.352 ± 0.017 in flat ΛCDM. SN data alone now require acceleration ( q 0 < 0 in ΛCDM) with over 5 σ confidence. We find ( Ω M , w ) = ( 0.264 − 0.096 + 0.074 , − 0.80 − 0.16 + 0.14 ) in flat w CDM. For flat w 0 w a CDM, we find ( Ω M , w 0 , w a ) = ( 0.495 − 0.043 + 0.033 , − 0.36 − 0.30 + 0.36 , − 8.8 − 4.5 + 3.7 ) , consistent with a constant equation of state to within ∼2 σ . Including Planck cosmic microwave background, Sloan Digital Sky Survey baryon acoustic oscillation, and DES 3 × 2pt data gives (Ω M , w ) = (0.321 ± 0.007, −0.941 ± 0.026). In all cases, dark energy is consistent with a cosmological constant to within ∼2 σ . Systematic errors on cosmological parameters are subdominant compared to statistical errors; these results thus pave the way for future photometrically classified SN analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predicting RNA structure and dynamics with deep learning and solution scattering

Advanced deep learning and statistical methods can predict structural models for RNA molecules. However, RNAs are flexible, and it remains difficult to describe their macromolecular conformations in solutions where varying conditions can induce conformational changes. Small-angle x-ray scattering (SAXS) in solution is an efficient technique to validate structural predictions by comparing the experimental SAXS profile with those calculated from predicted structures. There are two main challenges in comparing SAXS profiles to RNA structures: the absence of cations essential for stability and charge neutralization in predicted structures and the inadequacy of a single structure to represent RNA’s conformational plasticity. We introduce a solution conformation predictor for RNA (SCOPER) to address these challenges. This pipeline integrates kinematics-based conformational sampling with the innovative deep learning model, IonNet, designed for predicting Mg 2+ ion binding sites. Validated through benchmarking against 14 experimental data sets, SCOPER significantly improved the quality of SAXS profile fits by including Mg 2+ ions and sampling of conformational plasticity. We observe that an increased content of monovalent and bivalent ions leads to decreased RNA plasticity. Therefore, carefully adjusting the plasticity and ion density is crucial to avoid overfitting experimental SAXS data. SCOPER is an efficient tool for accurately validating the solution state of RNAs given an initial, sufficiently accurate structure and provides the corrected atomistic model, including ions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rapid monitoring of fermentations: a feasibility study on biological 2,3-butanediol production

2,3-butanediol (2,3-BDO) is an economically important platform chemical that can be produced by the fermentation of sugars using an engineered strain of Zymomonas mobilis . These fermentations require continuous monitoring and modification of fermentation conditions to maximize 2,3-BDO yields and minimize the production of the undesired coproducts glycerol and acetoin. Because of the time required for sampling and off-line chromatographic measurement of fermentation samples, the ability of fermentation scientists to modify fermentation conditions in a timely manner is limited. The goal of this study was to test if near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) along with multivariate statistics could reduce the time needed for this analysis and enable real-time monitoring and control of the fermentation. In this work we developed partial least squares (PLS) calibration models to predict the concentrations of glucose, xylose, 2,3-BDO, acetoin, and glycerol in fermentations via NIRS using two different spectrometers and two different spectroscopy modalities. We first evaluated the feasibility of rapid NIRS monitoring through experiments where we measured the signals from each analyte of interest and built NIRS-based PLS models using spectra from synthetic samples containing uncorrelated concentrations of these analytes. All analytes showed unique spectral signatures, and this initial modeling showed that all analytes could be detected simultaneously. We then began work with samples from laboratory fermentation experiments and tested the feasibility of regression model development across two spectral collection modalities (at-line and on-line) and two instruments: a laboratory-grade instrument and a low-cost instrument with a more limited spectral range. All modalities showed promise in the ability to monitor Z. mobilis fermentations of glucose and xylose to 2,3-BDO. The low-cost instrument displayed a lower signal-to-noise ratio than the laboratory-grade instrument, which led to comparatively lower performance overall, but still provided sufficient accuracy to monitor fermentation trends. While the ease of use of on-line monitoring systems was favored as compared to at-line systems due to the lack of sampling required and potential for automated process control, we observed some decrease in performance due to the additional complexity of the sample matrix. We have demonstrated that NIRS combined with multivariate analysis can be used for at-line and on-line monitoring of the concentrations of glucose, xylose, 2,3-BDO, acetoin, and glycerol during Z. mobilis fermentations. The decrease in signal-to-noise ratio when using a low-cost spectrometer led to greater prediction error than the laboratory-grade spectrometer for at-line monitoring. The on-line monitoring modality showed great promise for real time process control via NIRS.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

How well do local relations predict gas-phase metallicity gradients? Results from SDSS-IV MaNGA

ABSTRACT Gas-phase metallicity gradients in galaxies provide important clues to those galaxies’ formation histories. Using SDSS-IV MaNGA data, we previously demonstrated that gas metallicity gradients vary systematically and significantly across the galaxy mass–size plane: at stellar masses beyond approximately $10^{10}\, \mathrm{M_\odot }$, more extended galaxies display steeper gradients (in units of dex/Re) at a given stellar mass. Here, we set out to develop a physical interpretation of these findings by examining the ability of local ∼kpc-scale relations to predict the gradient behaviour along the mass–size plane. We find that local stellar mass surface density, when combined with total stellar mass, is sufficient to reproduce the overall mass–size trend in a qualitative sense. We further find that we can improve the predictions by correcting for residual trends relating to the recent star formation histories of star-forming regions. However, we find as well that the most extended galaxies display steeper average gradients than predicted, even after correcting for residual metallicity trends with other local parameters. From these results, we argue that gas-phase metallicity gradients can largely be understood in terms of known local relations, but we also discuss some possible physical causes of discrepant gradients.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Intermediate time sub-diffusion and stress relaxation in ring polymer melts

The slow dynamics of non-concatenated ring melts remains a frontier problem in polymer science with implications for many soft material environments including cellular biophysics. Here, in this work, we report large-scale simulations of model ring melts that analyze the monomer and center-of-mass (CM) mean square displacements (MSD) and stress relaxation function on intermediate time and length scales. The degree of dynamical slowing down is characterized by the maximally sub-diffusive fractional time scaling exponents. The data span an exceptionally wide range of ring degrees of polymerization and stiffnesses and are not successfully organized based on the classic measure linear chain entanglement, N/N e . Rather, we find that the crossover degree of polymerization, N D , based on ring macromolecular caging that successfully allows master curves to be constructed for the long-time CM self-diffusion constant also collapses these temporal dynamic scaling exponents. Different properties display different exponents and exhibit one or two regimes of linear variation with the logarithm of N D / N . A distinct crossover of the CM-MSD and stress relaxation exponents emerges at sufficiently large N or stiffness that is not found for the monomer MSD, indicating a novel form of dynamic decoupling. This crossover aligns with the predicted critical degree of polymerization for transitioning from a weak to strong caging regime, indicative of activated transport. The latter may reflect the emergence of an intermolecular collective contribution to stress in analogy with dense soft colloidal matter. Suggestions are made for future theoretical work to address the rich patterns of behavior discovered.

Anomalous diffusion↗

DOE OSTI2025

Minimal implicit-solvent coarse-grained simulation of Pluronic block copolymers with ionic liquids

Pluronic block copolymers, composed of poly(ethylene oxide) (PEO) and poly(propylene oxide) (PPO) in a triblock structure (PEO–PPO–PEO), are well known for their amphiphilic character and ability to self‐assemble into micelles in aqueous solution. The addition of ionic liquids (ILs) can further modulate the core–shell structures of these copolymers, influencing their stability, critical micellization temperature, and size. However, fully atomistic simulations often become prohibitively expensive due to the size and complexity of these systems. In this work, coarse‐grained simulations using a minimal implicit‐solvent model were performed to examine how two classes of ILs, namely, 1‐alkyl‐3‐methylimidazolium ([C n C 1 im]) and 1‐alkyl‐3‐methylpyrrolidinium ([C n C 1 pyrr]), change the micellization of Pluronic block copolymers in aqueous solution. The effects of IL concentration and alkyl group length were investigated, and the model greatly improved the efficiency of simulating large‐scale micelle systems. Furthermore, the numerical simulations are qualitatively compared with experimental investigations. Our results show that adding ILs expands the micelle core by embedding IL tails among the PPO blocks, thereby increasing overall micelle size. Less polar ILs generally induce more pronounced micellar growth. However, the effect of IL tail length on conformation and micellar packing is non‐monotonic. Up to moderate chain lengths (around C8–C10), the IL tails can extend sufficiently to increase local separation within the micelle; at longer tail lengths, enhanced hydrophobic clustering and steric hindrance cause the tails to bend or fold, capping further expansion. In addition, although block copolymer chains tend to pack more closely in the presence of longer‐tailed ILs, the random coil size of an individual polymer chain does not necessarily shrink. Meanwhile, these insights provide a deeper understanding of how Pluronic/IL systems interact, informing applications in drug delivery, cosmetics, food, and environmental engineering. Finally, our minimal implicit‐solvent model can be applied to larger systems and longer timescales, substantially reducing computational cost while reproducing key structural trends observed experimentally.

Atomistic simulations↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification of Calculated Temperatures for the AGR 5/6/7 Experiment

This report documents the quantification of uncertainty of the calculated temperature data for the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) 5/6/7 fuel irradiation experiment conducted in the Advanced Test Reactor at Idaho National Laboratory in support of the Advanced Reactor Technologies? research and development program. Recognizing uncertainties inherent in physics and thermal simulations of the AGR 5/6/7 capsules, the results of the numerical simulations are used in combination with statistical analysis methods to improve qualification of measured data. The calculated fuel temperatures for AGR tests are also used for validation of the fission product transport and fuel performance simulation models. These crucial roles of the calculated fuel temperatures in ensuring achievement of the AGR experimental program objectives require accurate determination of the model temperature uncertainties. This report covers temperature uncertainty results for each of the five AGR 5/6/7 capsules. To quantify the uncertainty of calculated temperatures determined using the ABAQUS finite element heat transfer code, this study identifies and analyzes model parameters of potential importance to the calculated temperatures of fuel compacts and thermocouples. The selection of input parameters for uncertainty quantification is based on the ranking of their influences upon temperature predictions. Thus, selected input parameters include those with high sensitivity and those with the largest uncertainty. Propagation of model parameter uncertainty and sensitivity is then used to quantify the overall uncertainty of calculated temperatures. Measurement uncertainty, analysis of modeling assumptions, and expert judgment are used as the basis to quantify the uncertainty range for selected input parameters. The input uncertainties are dynamic, accounting for the effect of unplanned events and changes in thermal properties of capsule components over extended exposure to high temperatures and fast neutron irradiation. The sensitivity analysis performed in this work went beyond the traditional local sensitivity. Using experimental design, analysis of pairwise interactions of model parameters was performed to establish sufficiency of the time dependent first order (linear) expansion terms in constructing the temperature response surface. To achieve completeness, uncertainty propagation made use of pairwise noise correlations of model parameters. Furthermore, using an interpolation scheme over the input parameter domain, the analysis obtains time dependent sensitivity over the test campaign duration. This allows computation of uncertainty for the calculated fuel temperatures and the calculated graphite temperatures at thermocouple locations during the entire irradiation period.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis - NLR Historical Solar PV

The U.S. Department of Energy and National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis from variable sources, hydrogen compression and storage, and hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) research platform. This dataset represents part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure nationwide. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with various energy technologies. Future datasets will demonstrate how existing hydrogen fuel cell technologies can provide controllable, dispatchable, and variable power output for artificial intelligence data centers and other variable loads. This dataset entry describes the behavior of a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane MC250 electrolyzer system, manufactured by Nel Hydrogen , [1] when fed historical data generated by the 430-kW, fixed-axis solar photovoltaic (PV) array located at NLR’s Flatirons Campus. (While the electrolyzer balance of plant supports up to 2.5 MW of electrolysis, NLR only has a single 1.25-MW electrolysis stack.) Solar PV power output data for the 2020 calendar year were categorized on a daily basis by total energy generation and standard deviation. Each day was then ranked by these metrics, and the 25th, 50th, and 100th percentiles were selected. The 75th percentile day did not exhibit sufficient variability to make for a valuable experiment. A similar process was used for the related historical wind dataset . [2] The historical days in 2020 that represented these percentiles are Dec. 19, March 29, and May 4, respectively. The entire solar day’s power profile was then fed through the MC250 electrolyzer. Due to its length, the 100th percentile day experiment was split into two parts, and the final 3 hours of the solar day were not captured. These final 3 hours contained no spikes or dips of interest and simply represented a slow decay of input solar power. Also, a single timestamp (13:13:47 on Jan. 14, 2026) was lost in the hydrogen system supervisory control and data acquisition. Finally, during the 25th percentile experiment (solar day Dec. 19, 2020) data recording was lost from 11:00:13 to 11:14:45. The roughly 15 minutes of the solar profile were rerun at the end of the experiment and spliced into this time slot during post-processing. The electrolysis system controls hydrogen production by varying direct current applied to the stack, from a maximum of 3,000 A to a minimum safe operation of 300 A, or 10%. Because the current–voltage characteristic changes as the stack ages and efficiency degrades, the actual minimum safe operating power changes over time. The historical solar profiles were translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1-Hz frequency. For more details on the statistical analysis process, see the slide deck “Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis: NLR Historical Solar PV Analysis and Profile Generation” accessible with this data entry. These datasets report relevant hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. Each .zip file represents a single solar PV electrolysis experiment and is formatted as: {technology}_{percentile}_{scaling factor} For instance, “solarPV-430kW_25_2x.zip” reports the experiment using the 25th percentile solar data from the historical 2020 solar PV dataset, scaled to 200%. Scaling factors were applied to the generated solar PV power output files to more closely match the 1.25-MW capacity of the electrolyzer. Each .zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file containing raw data. An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production, electrolysis power consumption, and solar power input. A PDF file detailing the historical solar data statistical analysis used to generate the solar profile. An experiment labeled “characterization_200.zip” demonstrates the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30-minute load steps for a total duration of 5 hours. Finally, a .csv file is provided with all experiments combined into one dataset labeled "combined_solarPV_experiments.csv". [1] nelhydrogen.com/product/mc-series-electrolyser . [2] data.nlr.gov/submissions/316 .

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Measuring the neutrino-oxygen neutral current quasielastic cross section using the accelerator neutrino neutron interaction experiment

The Accelerator Neutrino Neutron Interaction Experiment (ANNIE) is a 26-ton gadolinium-doped water Cherenkov detector located on-axis to Fermilab’s Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB). ANNIE is uniquely positioned to perform high-statistics measurements of neutrino-nucleus interactions in water, benefiting from a large neutrino flux due to a short (100-meter) baseline. A central focus of ANNIE’s physics program is the measurement of both charged current (CC) and neutral current (NC) cross sections on water, including neutral current quasielastic (NCQE) and CC-inclusive channels. The NCQE measurement is particularly critical for constraining uncertainties in rare-event searches such as the Diffuse Supernova Neutrino Background (DSNB), where atmospheric $\nu$NCQE interactions constitute a significant and poorly constrained background. This dissertation presents a measurement of the flux-averaged neutrino-oxygen neutral current quasielastic ($\nu$NCQE) cross section using $2.573 \times 10^{20}$~POT of BNB exposure from the 2022 and 2023 beam years. The $\nu$NCQE interaction is identified through the primary $\gamma$-rays produced by nuclear de-excitation of the residual $^{15}$N$^*$ or $^{15}$O$^*$ nucleus following nucleon knockout from $^{16}$O. A dedicated Monte Carlo (MC) re-tuning campaign was conducted using an americium-beryllium (AmBe) calibration source, Michel electrons from stopped muons, and throughgoing dirt muons originating upstream of the detector. This multi-sample approach provided a wide-ranging $\mathcal{O}(\text{MeV})$--$\mathcal{O}(\text{GeV})$ dataset for tuning the simulated detector response, which was subsequently validated against AmBe neutron and Michel electron data for use in the $\nu$NCQE analysis. A dedicated laser calibration campaign was carried out to reduce timing uncertainties across the PMT system, enabling reconstruction of the BNB bunch substructure with sufficient resolution to serve as a background rejection tool. By selecting events in-time with individual neutrino bunches, beam-correlated $\nu$NCQE events are separated from diffuse and accelerator-induced backgrounds, notably skyshine neutrons and externally-originating events, that would otherwise dominate traditional charge-based selections within a small-scale, surface-level, short-baseline detector. A data-driven estimation of the skyshine neutron and external background rates was performed and incorporated into the systematic uncertainty budget. The flux-averaged $\nu$NCQE cross section on oxygen is measured to be $1.57 \pm 0.06\,(\text{stat.})$ $^{+0.91}_{-0.67}\,(\text{syst.})$ $\times 10^{-38}\ \text{cm}^{2}$. A full systematic budget is constructed by propagating uncertainties in the secondary hadronic interaction modeling, background cross section normalizations, detector response, neutrino flux, and the primary $\gamma$-ray emission probabilities from oxygen nuclear de-excitation. An idealized de-excitation model, constructed from existing measurements in the literature is developed to benchmark the predictions of the \textsc{GENIE} event generator. A comparison reveals that \textsc{GENIE} systematically overpredicts the primary $\gamma$-ray emission probability from oxygen de-excitation by a factor of $1.49\times$ for $E_\gamma > 6$~MeV and $3.07\times$ in the $3$--$6$~MeV band. This comparison motivates the dominant systematic uncertainty in this analysis, where a conservative uncertainty of $^{+39.9\%}_{-0\%}$ on the primary $\gamma$-ray signal prediction is assigned. The ANNIE result is consistent with and complementary to existing flux-averaged $\nu$NCQE cross section measurements from T2K and Super-Kamiokande, providing an independent measurement with a different detector, neutrino beam, and analysis methodology. Looking ahead, an upgrade to the ANNIE DAQ infrastructure enabling continuous extended readout will allow a complementary $\nu$NCQE neutron multiplicity measurement, directly relevant to constraining the NCQE background in DSNB searches, competitive with the recent T2K measurement at SK-Gd. The planned Super-SANDI upgrade, deploying a large Water-based Liquid Scintillator (WbLS) volume, will further extend ANNIE's reach to hadronic final states and exclusive NC channels, and enable joint measurements with liquid argon detectors sharing the BNB beamline ahead of DUNE and Hyper-Kamiokande.

Doran, Steven [Iowa State U.]↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of Baseline Monitoring Data for the Remote-Handled Low-Level Waste Disposal Facility at Idaho National Laboratory

The purpose of this document is to summarize environmental monitoring data collected at the Remote-Handled Low-Level Waste (RHLLW) Disposal Facility during the first four years of facility operations (FY 2019 through FY 2022). This summary provides a “baseline” condition for the facility, which can be used to distinguish contaminant releases from the RHLLW Disposal Facility from pre existing contamination as well as potential future releases from other sources (i.e., upgradient aquifer sources), as specified in the facility monitoring plan. Sufficient data has been collected over the first four years of operation of the RHLLW Disposal Facility to establish baseline conditions for future compliance monitoring of aquifer wells and performance monitoring of vadose zone lysimeters. Except for seven elevated tritium measurements from lysimeter HFEF-South believed to have been impacted by waste disposals, all data was deemed appropriate for establishing baseline concentrations. Monitoring of the aquifer detected indicator analytes gross alpha and gross beta and target analytes tritium and C-14. There were a few C-14 detections prior to an increase in the required detection level (RDL) after the first round of sampling. I-129 and Tc-99 were not detected above RDLs in aquifer samples. Lysimeter samples detected indicator analytes gross alpha and gross beta and target analyte tritium. Target analytes C-14, I-129, and Tc-99 were not detected above RDLs in lysimeter samples. Except for tritium, baseline concentrations of indicator and target analytes measured during the first four years of RHLLW facility operations are expected to represent conditions through the expected 20 year operating period of the facility. Elevated tritium in the aquifer, a result of past discharges of tritium at upgradient facilities, showed a decline over the first four years of operations, and levels are expected to continue to decline with time as a result of dilution and decay. Current tritium levels in lysimeter samples may be elevated due to tritium in the water applied during construction and infiltration testing of the facility. As a result, tritium concentrations in lysimeters may decline with time as a result of dilution and decay. Statistical measures (i.e., mean, standard deviation, and 99% upper confidence level [UCL]) were calculated for all detected analytes using the four years of concentration data. These measures will be used to evaluate future monitoring results and to demonstrate the facility is performing, or not performing, as established in the facility performance assessment (PA). Future monitoring results will also be combined with the baseline data in this report to further establish temporal trends and natural variability in the measurements. Based on the data collected during the baseline period, it is recommended the gross alpha action level for performance monitoring increase from 10 to 20 pCi/L due to several baseline measurements exceeding the preliminary action level of 10. An action level of 20 pCi/L is slightly greater than the 99% UCL, is protective of the aquifer, and would reduce unnecessary sampling. It is also recommended that tritium be added to the lysimeter analyte list for post-baseline period monitoring. Tritium, while not a dose concern, is a good tracer that can provide valuable information on water flow in and around the RHLLW Disposal Facility. Recommendations for a tritium action level are provided if considered necessary.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deep-learning-based canopy height model generation from sub-meter resolution panchromatic satellite imagery

Canopy height models (CHMs) with sufficient resolution to distinguish individual trees are useful for a variety of applications. However, standard techniques to acquire such data, such as airborne lidar surveying, are often prohibitively expensive. Deep learning techniques for generating CHMs from high-resolution imagery are an attractive option to reduce costs. To date, success with these methods has been demonstrated using multichannel aerial photography and specialized satellite data products derived from multiple sensors, neither of which is commonly available at temporal resolutions finer than one year. Here we demonstrate a method to generate sub-meter resolution CHMs in three forests in California using a more abundant data source: sub-meter resolution, panchromatic satellite imagery from a single sensor. We show that phenology and species composition play important roles in model transferability; when trained using imagery from a single conifer forest in autumn, the model performs well on autumn imagery from a second conifer forest several hundred kilometers distant with no re-training. With modest additions to the training dataset, the same model generates minimally biased estimates of canopy height in both conifer and deciduous forests during multiple seasons. Because the model operates on satellite data with global coverage and a relatively short return interval, we propose its suitability to extrapolate tree-level canopy height data to remote regions and conduct high-temporal resolution monitoring of forest structure. We furthermore demonstrate the workflow’s applicability to fire modeling by conducting simulations in forests populated by trees measured using both this approach and airborne lidar surveying. We find minimal differences in fire behavior relative to a baseline case in which only statistical distributions of tree height and crown area are known. This result underscores the value of forest structural information derived from our workflow for improving the fidelity of wildland fire simulations, among other ecological applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Probing the Capability of Future Direct-imaging Missions to Spectrally Constrain the Frequency of Earth-like Planets

A critical question in astrobiology is whether exo-Earth candidates (EECs) are Earth-like, in that they originate life that progressively oxygenates their atmospheres similarly to Earth. We propose answering this question statistically by searching for O{sub 2} and O{sub 3} on EECs with missions such as HabEx or LUVOIR. We explore the ability of these missions to constrain the fraction, f {sub E}, of EECs that are Earth-like in the event of a null detection of O{sub 2} or O{sub 3} on all observed EECs. We use the Planetary Spectrum Generator to simulate observations of EECs with O{sub 2} and O{sub 3} levels based on Earth’s history. We consider four instrument designs—LUVOIR-A (15 m), LUVOIR-B (8 m), HabEx with a starshade (4 m, “HabEx/SS”), and HabEx without a starshade (4 m, “HabEx/no-SS”)—as well as three estimates of the occurrence rate of EECs (η {sub earth}): 24%, 5%, and 0.5%. In the case of a null detection, we find that for η {sub earth} = 24%, LUVOIR-A, LUVOIR-B, and HabEx/SS would constrain f {sub E} to ≤0.094, ≤0.18, and ≤0.56, respectively. This also indicates that if f {sub E} is greater than these upper limits, we are likely to detect O{sub 3} on at least one EEC. Conversely, we find that HabEx/no-SS cannot constrain f {sub E}, due to the lack of a coronagraph ultraviolet channel. For η {sub earth} = 5%, only LUVOIR-A and LUVOIR-B would be able to constrain f {sub E}, to ≤0.45 and ≤0.85, respectively. For η {sub earth} = 0.5%, none of the missions would allow us to constrain f {sub E}, due to the low number of detectable EECs. We conclude that the ability to constrain f {sub E} is more robust to uncertainties in η {sub earth} for missions with larger aperture mirrors. However, all missions are susceptible to an inconclusive null detection if η {sub earth} is sufficiently low.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning methods for probabilistic locked-mode predictors in tokamak plasmas

A rotating tokamak plasma can interact resonantly with the external helical magnetic perturbations, also known as error fields. This can lead to locking and then to disruptions. We leverage machine learning (ML) methods to predict the locking events. We use a coupled third-order nonlinear ordinary differential equation model to represent the interaction of the magnetic perturbation and the plasma rotation with the error field. This model is sufficient to describe qualitatively the locking and unlocking bifurcations. Here, we explore using ML algorithms with the simulation data and experimental data, focusing on the methods that can be used with sparse datasets. These methods lead to the possibility of the avoidance of locking in real-time operations. We describe the operational space in terms of two control parameters: the magnitude of the error field and the rotation frequency associated with the momentum source that maintains the plasma rotation. The outcomes are quan- tified by order parameters that completely characterize the state, whether locked or unlocked. We use unsupervised ML methods to classify locked/unlocked states and note the usefulness of a certain normalization of the order parameters. Three supervised ML classifiers are used in suite to estimate the probability of locking in the region of control parameter space with hysteresis, i.e., the set of control parameters for which both locked and unlocked states can exist. The results show that a neural network gives the best estimate of the locking probability. An analogy of the present locking model with the van der Waals equation of state is also provided.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

The quantum p -spin glass model: a user manual for holographers

We study a large-N bosonic quantum mechanical sigma-model with a spherical target space subject to disordered interactions, more colloquially known as the p-spin spherical model. Replica symmetry is broken at low temperatures and for sufficiently weak quantum fluctuations, which drives the system into a spin glass (SG) phase. The first half of this paper is dedicated to a discussion of this model's thermodynamics, with particular emphasis on the marginally stable SG. This phase exhibits an emergent conformal symmetry in the strong coupling regime, which dictates its thermodynamic properties. It is associated with an extensive number of nearby states in the free energy landscape. We discuss in detail an elegant approximate solution to the SG equations, which interpolates between the conformal regime and an ultraviolet-complete short distance solution. In the second half of this paper we explore the real-time dynamics of the model and uncover quantum chaos as measured by out-of-time-order four-point functions, both numerically and analytically. We find exponential Lyapunov growth, which intricately depends on the model's couplings and becomes strongest in the quantum critical regime. We emphasize that the SG phase also exhibits quantum chaos, albeit with parametrically smaller Lyapunov exponent than in the replica symmetric phase. An analytical calculation in the marginal SG phase suggests that this Lyapunov exponent vanishes in a particular infinite coupling limit. Finally, we comment on the potential meaning of these observations from the perspective of holography.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Partially Observed Epidemics - Application to COVID-19

This report documents a statistical method for the "real-time" characterization of partially observed epidemics. Observations consist of daily counts of symptomatic patients, diagnosed with the disease. Characterization, in this context, refers to estimation of epidemiological parameters that can be used to provide short-term forecasts of the ongoing epidemic, as well as to provide gross information for the time-dependent infection rate. The characterization problem is formulated as a Bayesian inverse problem, and is predicated on a model for the distribution of the incubation period. The model parameters are estimated as distributions using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, thus quantifying the uncertainty in the estimates. The method is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, using data at the country, provincial (e.g., states) and regional (e.g. county) levels. The epidemiological model includes a stochastic component due to uncertainties in the incubation period. This model-form uncertainty is accommodated by a pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings MCMC sampler, which produces posterior distributions that reflect this uncertainty. We approximate the discrepancy between the data and the epidemiological model using Gaussian and negative binomial error models; the latter was motivated by the over-dispersed count data. For small daily counts we find the performance of the calibrated models to be similar for the two error models. For large daily counts the negative-binomial approximation is numerically unstable unlike the Gaussian error model. Application of the model at the country level (for the United States, Germany, Italy, etc.) generally provided accurate forecasts, as the data consisted of large counts which suppressed the day-to-day variations in the observations. Further, the bulk of the data is sourced over the duration before the relaxation of the curbs on population mixing, and is not confounded by any discernible country-wide second wave of infections. At the state-level, where reporting was poor or which evinced few infections (e.g., New Mexico), the variance in the data posed some, though not insurmountable, difficulties, and forecasts were able to capture the data with large uncertainty bounds. The method was found to be sufficiently sensitive to discern the flattening of the infection and epidemic curve due to shelter-in-place orders after around 90% quantile for the incubation distribution (about 10 days for COVID-19). The proposed model was also used at a regional level to compare the forecasts for the central and north-west regions of New Mexico. Modeling the data for these regions illustrated different disease spread dynamics captured by the model. While in the central region the daily counts peaked in the late April, in the north-west region the ramp-up continued for approximately three more weeks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development of an Open-source Alloy Selection and Lifetime Assessment Tool for Structural Components in CSP

Lack of sufficient data on high temperature mechanical and corrosion behavior of structural materials is a huge barrier in the technological maturity of current and future Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies. Rapid development and selection of materials cannot be achieved by expensive and time-consuming acquisition of experimental data. The goal of the proposed work is development of an open-source alloy selection and lifetime prediction tool that will integrate validated physics-based models to describe influence of temperature, alloy composition, environment and component geometry (thickness) on mechanical and corrosion behavior of Ni and Fe-based alloys employed in molten salts/sCO 2 heat exchangers. This one-year project leveraged the extensive dataset on the creep\corrosion behavior of candidate materials generated at ORNL through past projects and input from current collaborations with industrial partners. Based on previous experience and the feedback provided by industry (Brayton Energy and Echogen), three candidate materials of interest, Ni-based alloys 740H, 282 and 625 and application-specific operating conditions (max. temperature of 730 °C and stress of 150 MPa) were identified for the heat exchanger. An extensive corrosion and creep dataset was assimilated for the relevant operating conditions and was supported by detailed characterization of about 100 metallographic cross-sections. The corrosion dataset consisted of scanning electron microscopy images (secondary electron and backscatter electron), measured concentration profiles of alloying elements using energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), widths of denuded zones (dissolution of strengthening phases) and depths of attack in molten KCl-MgCl 2 mixtures using image analyses. The creep dataset comprised of creep rupture data and creep strain curves (for 740H and 282). Coupled thermodynamic-kinetic microstructure-based models were employed to predict the stress-corrosion induced compositional and phase evolutions in the alloy during operation under the identified operating conditions. Reduced order models were developed from advanced physics-based models and were integrated in a user-friendly alloy selection tool. The corrosion model was able to predict the time to a critical Cr concentration at the oxide/alloy interface (chemical lifetime) within ±10% (1 standard deviation) of typical statistical variation in corrosion tests and EDS measurement errors (±0.5 wt%). The initial scope of the project was limited to predict creep rupture times (Larson-Miller parameter). Based on the input provided by industry, the mechanical lifetime of the heat exchanger is governed by accumulated creep strains (2%) rather than creep rupture. To be able to predict the times to specific creep strains, a more extensive creep model development was undertaken largely beyond the initial scope of the project. The continuum damage mechanics creep model was able to predict times to 2% creep strain, t 2% with an accuracy of ±500h. Ultimately, a screening protocol for SiC was generated to demonstrate the pathway for integration of one of the currently immature materials from a commercial adoption standpoint in the current material evaluation tool. The modeling tool developed here is accessible to the science community and stakeholders and lays the foundation for methods that will enable a rapid evaluation of optimum materials for CSP applications and reliable prediction of material degradation thereby considerably reducing operational costs, improving reliability and increasing overhaul intervals. However, the complete potential of such a tool to include a wider range of materials and test conditions can only be realized with a more concentrated combined experimental-characterization-computation effort.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗