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NASA NTRS1992

Stratification of chemical elements in the atmosphere of the Ap star 53 Camelopardalis

A detailed abundance analysis of Cr, Fe, Mn, Ca, and Ti in the Ap star 53 Cam from IUE high-resolution spectra has been performed. It is found that UV lines give significantly lower abundance than visible lines for Cr and Fe. Theoretical spectra of Cr II line calculated with the stratified chromium abundance distributions predicted a priori by the diffusion-mass loss model match well both visible and UV lines. The spectral shape of the Ca II K line and its variation are well accounted for by the diffusion model with mass loss. A spectrum synthesis with a stratified abundance well reproduces the observations. These findings provide convincing evidence for stratification in the photosphere of 53 Cam.

Babel, J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Evolution of a magnetic flux tube in two-dimensional penetrative convection

Highly supercritical compressible convection is simulated in a two-dimensional domain in which the upper half is unstable to convection while the lower half is stably stratified. This configuration is an idealization of the layers near the base of the solar convection zone. Once the turbulent flow is well developed, a toroidal magnetic field B sub tor is introduced to the stable layer. The field's evolution is governed by an advection-diffusion-type equation, and the Lorentz force does not significantly affect the flow. After many turnover times the field is stratified such that the absolute value of B sub tor/rho is approximately constant in the convective layer, where rho is density, while in the stable layer this ratio decreases linearly with depth. Consequently most of the magnetic flux is stored in the overshoot layer. The inclusion of rotation leads to travelling waves which transport magnetic flux latitudinally in a manner reminiscent of the migrations seen during the solar cycle.

Jennings, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1993

ROSAT EUV and soft X-ray studies of atmospheric composition and structure in G191-B2B

Previous studies of the hot DA white dwarf GI91-B2B have been unable to determine whether the observed soft X-ray and EUV opacity arises from a stratified hydrogen and helium atmosphere or from the presence of trace metals in the photosphere. New EUV and soft X-ray photometry of this star, made with the ROSAT observatory, when analyzed in conjunction with the earlier data, shows that the stratified models cannot account for the observed fluxes. Consequently, we conclude that trace metals must be a substantial source of opacity in the photosphere of G191-B2B.

Barstow, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS1993

On the dynamical buoyancy of vortices

In this paper we consider the effect of dynamical buoyancy (Parker) on the motion of stratified fluid vortex tubes. We find that the dynamical buoyancy force does not necessarily lead to a buoyant rise if there exists a flow field external to a tube. In particular, the vortex tubes presented in our previous work are shown to have a pressure force exactly canceling the buoyancy force so that they do not move vertically (i.e., parallel to gravity) at all. Moreover, we construct a more general class of vortex tubes and find that their vertical motion can be either up or down, depending on the detailed vorticity distribution, regardless of the fact that they are all dynamically buoyant. We find that the vertical motion is intimately related to the horizontal self-motion of stratified fluid vortex tubes. Finally, we note that the presence of dynamical buoyancy implies that steady state compressible flow solutions for isolated fluid regions in a gravitational field do not exist. These results may have relevance to astrophysical convection.

Arendt, Steve↗

NASA NTRS1995

Far-ultravoilet and optical spectrscopy of the detached white dwarf-M binary RE J1629+780

We present optical and far-ultraviolet observations, including IUE high- and low-dispersion spectroscopy, of the (DA2+dM4-5) close binary, RE J1629+780, a very bright ROSAT EUV source. The optical data reveal emission reversals in the cores of the Balmer lines, which vary in strength but reveal no evidence of wavelength shifts reflecting orbital motion, suggesting that the red dwarf and the white dwarf are widely separated. Thus it is unlikely that irradiation plays a dominant role in the activity of the red dwarf. One dramatic increase in the intensity of the H-beta emission strength in the course of one hour indicates that the observed intensity variations are most likely related to flare activity on the red dwarf. Our analysis of Balmer and Lyman alpha features yield T(sub eff) = 42,500 +/- 1300 K and log g = 7.6 +/- 0.3 for the DA2 white dwarf, which is consistent with the overall 900 to 3200 A energy distribution derived from Voyager and IUE low-dispersion spectra. Our analysis of three IUE echelle spectra reveal numerous lines of interstellar origin. Using a total of 13 interstellar matter (ISM) features we find a mean radial velocity of -13.57 +/- 1.66 km/s for the interstellar features. However, we found no evidence of trace metal absorbers levitated or accreted in the white-dwarf photosphere nor any evidence of circumstellar or wind features. We estimate a lower limit hydrogen layer mass of 2.1 x 10(exp -15) solar mass for a stratified atmosphere based upon the nondetection of He II (1640). Tighter constraints on the helium abundance and the hydrogen layer mass, from EUV and X-ray data, are presented for both homogeneous and stratified atmospheric configurations.

Sion, Edward M.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Baroclinic instability in the interiors of the giant planets: A cooling history of Uranus?

We propose a quasigeostrophic, baroclinic model for heat transport within the interior of a stably stratified Jovian planet, based on motion in thin cylindrical annuli. Density decreases from the center outward and is zero at the surface of the planet. In the homogeneous case (no core), we find instability for the poles hotter than the equator, but not for the reverse. If the motion is bounded by an impenetrable core, instability occurs for both cases. Much of the behavior can be explained by analogy to conventional baroclinic instability theory. Motivated by our results, we explore a possible connection between the highly inclined rotation axis of Uranus and its anomalously low surface heat flux. We assume that the planets formed hot. Our conjecture is that heat was efficiently convected outwards by baroclinic instability in Uranus (with the poles hotter than the equator), but not in the other three Jovian planets. The surface temperature was higher for the stably stratified case (Uranus), leading to a higher rate of infrared emission and faster cooling. Therefore, we propose that Uranus lost its internal heat sooner than Neptune because baroclinic motions, permitted by its inclination to the sun, were able to extract its internal heat while the surface was still warm.

Holme, Richard↗

NASA NTRS1995

Acoustic wave propagation in the solar atmosphere 1. Rediscussion of the linearized theory including nonstationary solutions

The normal dispersion analysis for linear adiabatic wave propagation in stratified atmospheres adopts a real frequency and solves for the complex vertical wavenumber. We show that an exponentially stratified atmosphere does not have any spatially bounded normal modes for real frequencies. The usual treatment involves a representation where the imaginary part of the vertical wavenumber yields a rho(sup -1/2) dependence of the velocity amplitude which diverges as the absolute value of z approaches infinity. This solution includes a cutoff frequency below which acoustic modes cannot propagate. The standard dispersion analysis is a local representation of the wave behavior in both space and time but which is assumed to represent the motion throughout - infinity is less than t is less than infinity and 0 is less than infinity. However, any solution which has a purely sinusoidal time dependence extends through this full domain and is divergent due to the rho(sup -1/2) dependence. We show that a proper description is in terms of a near field of a boundary piston which is driven arbitrarily as a function of space and time. The atmosphere which responds to this piston is a semi-infinite layer which has an initially constant sound speed but which has the usual gravitational stratification. In a restricted domain of space and time above this boundary, the wavelike behavior of the medium may be described by frequencies and vertical wavenumbers which are both complex. When both parameters are allowed to have imaginary components, a new range of solutions is found for which there is virtually no cutoff frequency. We show that vertical energy propagation can take place through the solar atmosphere as a result of oscillations below the nominal cutoff frequency. Previously, the largest amplitude oscillations which generally have low frequencies were dropped from the calculation of energy flux becuase their frequencies are below the cutoff frequency. This new family of near-field waves permits these modes to carry energy vertically outward and raises the possibility that the largest amplitude 5 minute oscillations play a substantial role in the transport of acoustic energy to the chromosphere.

Wang, Zhengzhi↗

NASA NTRS1996

Toward a Turbulence Constitutive Relation for Rotating Flows

In rapidly rotating turbulent flows the largest scales of the motion are in approximate geostrophic balance. Single-point turbulence closures, in general, cannot attain a geostrophic balance. This article addresses and resolves the possibility of constitutive relation procedures for single-point second order closures for a specific class of rotating or stratified flows. Physical situations in which the geostrophic balance is attained are described. Closely related issues of frame-indifference, horizontal nondivergence, Taylor-Proudman theorem and two-dimensionality are, in the context of both the instantaneous and averaged equations, discussed. It is shown, in the absence of vortex stretching along the axis of rotation, that turbulence is frame-indifferent. A derivation and discussion of a geostrophic constraint which the prognostic equations for second-order statistics must satisfy for turbulence approaching a frame-indifferent limit is given. These flow situations, which include rotating and nonrotating stratified flows, are slowly evolving flows in which the constitutive relation procedures are useful. A nonlinear non-constant coefficient representation for the rapid-pressure strain covariance appearing in the Reynolds stress and heat flux equations consistent with the geostrophic balance is described. The rapid-pressure strain model coefficients are not constants determined by numerical optimization but are functions of the state of the turbulence as parameterized by the Reynolds stresses and the turbulent heat fluxes. The functions are valid for all states of the turbulence attaining their limiting values only when a limit state is achieved. These issues are relevant to strongly vortical flows as well as flows such as the planetary boundary layers, in which there is a transition from a three-dimensional shear driven turbulence to a geostrophic or horizontal turbulence.

Ristorcelli, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Toward Understanding Wake Vortices and Atmospheric Turbulence Interactions Using Large-Eddy Simulation

The vortices produced by an aircraft in flight are a complex phenomena created from a 'sheet of vorticity' leaving the trailing edge of the aircraft surfaces. This sheet tends to roll-up into two counter-rotating vortices. After a few spans downstream of the aircraft, the roll-up process is complete and the vortex pair may be characterized in a simple manner for modeling purposes. Our research will focus on what happens to these post roll-up vortices in the vicinity of an airport terminal. As the aircraft wake vortices descend, they are transported by the air mass which they are embedded and are decayed by both internal and external processes. In the vicinity of the airport, these external influences are usually due to planetary boundary layer (PBL) turbulence. Using large-eddy simulation (LES), one may simulate a variety of PBL conditions. In the LES method, turbulence is generated in the PBL as a response to surface heat flux, horizontal pressure gradient, wind shear, and/or stratification, and may produce convective or unstably stratified, neutral, or stably stratified PBL's. Each of these PBL types can occur during a typical diurnal cycle of the PBL. Thus it is important to be able to characterize these conditions with the LES method. Once this turbulent environment has been generated, a vortex pair will be introduced and the interactions are observed. The objective is to be able to quantify the PBL turbulence vortex interaction and be able to draw some conclusions of vortex behavior from the various scale interactions. This research is ongoing, and we will focus on what has been accomplished to date and the future direction of this research. We will discuss the model being used, show results that validate its use in the PBL, and present a nested-grid method proposed to analyze the entire PBL and vortex pair simultaneously.

DeCroix, David↗

NASA NTRS1995

A Model for the Thermal and Chemical Evolution of the Moon's Interior: Implications for the Onset of Mare Volcanism

Crystallization of the lunar magma ocean creates a chemically stratified Moon consisting of an anorthositic crust and magma ocean cumulates overlying the primitive lunar interior. Within the magma ocean cumulates the last liquids to crystallize form dense, ilmenite-rich cumulates that contain high concentrations of incompatible radioactive elements. The underlying olivine-orthopyroxene cumulates are also stratified with later crystallized, denser, more Fe-rich compositions at the top. This paper explores the chemical and thermal consequences of an internal evolution model accounting for the possible role of these sources of chemical buoyancy. Rayleigh-Taylor instability causes the dense ilmenite-rich cumulate layer and underlying Fe-rich cumulates to sink toward the center of the Moon, forming a dense lunar core. After this overturn, radioactive heating within the ilmenite-rich cumulate core heats the overlying mantle, causing it to melt. In this model, the source region for high-TiO2 mare basalts is a convectively mixed layer above the core-mantle boundary which would contain small and variable amounts of admixed ilmenite and KREEP. This deep high-pressure melting, as required for mare basalts, occurs after a reasonable time interval to explain the onset of mare basalt volcanism if the content of radioactive elements in the core and the chemical density gradients above the core are sufficiently high but within a range of values that might have been present in the Moon. Regardless of details implied by particular model parameters, gravitational overturn driven by the high density of magma ocean Fe-rich cumulates should concentrate high-TiO2 mare basalt sources, and probably a significant fraction of radioactive heating, toward the center of the Moon. This will have important implications for both the thermal evolution of the Moon and for mare basalt genesis.

Hess, Paul C.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Planetary Geophysics and Tectonics

Research supported by grant NAGW-1928 has addressed a variety of problems related to planetary evolution. One important focus has been on questions related to the role of chemical buoyancy in planetary evolution with application to both Venus and the Moon. We have developed a model for the evolution of the Moon (Hess and Parmentier, 1995) in which dense, highly radioactive, late stage magma ocean cumulates sink forming a core. This core heats the overlying, chemically layered mantle giving rise to a heated, chemically well-mixed layer that thickens with time. This Mixed layer eventually becomes hot enough and thick enough that its top begins to melt at a pressure low enough that melt is buoyant, thus creating mare basalts from a high pressure source of the correct composition and at an appropriate time in lunar evolution. In work completed during the last year, numerical experiments on convection in a chemically stably stratified fluid layer heated from below have been completed. These results show us how to calculate the evolution of a mixed layer in the Moon, depending on the heat production in the ilmenite- cumulate core and the chemical stratification of the overlying mantle. Chemical stratification of the mantle after its initial differentiation is would trap heat in the deep interior and prevent the rapid rise of plumes with accompanying volcanism. This trapping of heat in the interior can explain the thickness of the lunar lithosphere as a function of time as well as the magmatic evolution. We show that heat transported to the base of the lithosphere at a rate determined by current estimates of radioactivity in the Moon would not satisfy constraints on elastic lithosphere thickness from tectonic feature associated with basin loading. Trapping heat at depth by a chemically stratified mantle may also explain the absence of global compressional features on the surface that previous models predict for an initially hot lunar interior. For Venus, we developed a model in which the chemical buoyancy of crust and a depleted mantle layer stabilizes the lithosphere for long periods of time and provides a mechanism of episodic planetary evolution (Parmentier and Hess, 1992). Continued thickening of a residual depleted mantle layer eventually suppresses pressure release melting and the creation of depleted mantle. Continued cooling then allows the lithosphere to become heavier than the underlying hotter, undepleted mantle. This repeated instability can occur on time scales appropriate for episodic global resurfacing on Venus. We have also examined the role of the gabbro-eclogite phase transformation on crust and lithosphere stability and as a mechanism of crustal recycling in the absence of plate tectonics. Our work thus far concentrates on the scale of instability that would occur due to cooling or crustal thickening associated with horizontal shortening. Whether repeated overturn can explain the evolution of Venus depends in part on whether sufficient heat transfer can occur between overturns and on constraints provided by understanding observed surface features and evolution.

Parmentier, E. M.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Partial Wave Analysis of Coupled Photonic Structures

The very high quality factors sustained by microcavity optical resonators are relevant to applications in wavelength filtering, routing, switching, modulation, and multiplexing/demultiplexing. Increases in the density of photonic elements require that attention be paid to how electromagnetic (EM) coupling modifies their optical properties. This is especially true when cavity resonances are involved, in which case, their characteristics may be fundamentally altered. Understanding the optical properties of microcavities that are near or in contact with photonic elements---such as other microcavities, nanostructures, couplers, and substrates---can be expected to advance our understanding of the roles that these structures may play in VLSI photonics, biosensors and similar device technologies. Wc present results from recent theoretical studies of the effects of inter- and intracavity coupling on optical resonances in compound spherical particles. Concentrically stratified spheres and bispheres constituted from homogeneous and stratified spheres are subjects of this investigation. A new formulation is introduced for the absorption of light in an arbitrary layer of a multilayered sphere, which is based on multiple reflections of the spherical partial waves of the Lorenz-Mie solution for scattering by a sphere. Absorption efficiencies, which can be used to profile cavity resonances and to infer fluorescence yields or the onset of nonlinear optical processes in the microcavities, are presented. Splitting of resonances in these multisphere systems is paid particular attention, and consequences for photonic device development and possible performance enhancements through carefully designed architectures that exploit EM coupling are considered.

Fuller, Kirk A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Cox Proportional Hazards Models for Modeling the Time to Onset of Decompression Sickness in Hypobaric Environments

In this paper we fit Cox proportional hazards models to a subset of data from the Hypobaric Decompression Sickness Databank. The data bank contains records on the time to decompression sickness (DCS) and venous gas emboli (VGE) for over 130,000 person-exposures to high altitude in chamber tests. The subset we use contains 1,321 records, with 87% censoring, and has the most recent experimental tests on DCS made available from Johnson Space Center. We build on previous analyses of this data set by considering more expanded models and more detailed model assessments specific to the Cox model. Our model - which is stratified on the quartiles of the final ambient pressure at altitude - includes the final ambient pressure at altitude as a nonlinear continuous predictor, the computed tissue partial pressure of nitrogen at altitude, and whether exercise was done at altitude. We conduct various assessments of our model, many of which are recently developed in the statistical literature, and conclude where the model needs improvement. We consider the addition of frailties to the stratified Cox model, but found that no significant gain was attained above a model that does not include frailties. Finally, we validate some of the models that we fit.

Thompson, Laura A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Coherent Effects in Tiny Optics: Tunneling Through the Looking Glass

I will discuss two types of one-dimensional photonic bandgap (PBG) effects that can arise in systems of coupled spherical resonators: (1) nearly-free-photon Fabry-Perot photonic bands that arise in quarter-wave concentrically stratified spheres and, (2) tight- binding photonic bands that arise in weakly-coupled mutually-resonant spheres as a result of whispering-gallery mode splitting. These effects can be derived directly from Mie theory, in a more straightforward manner, by exploiting an analogy with stratified planar systems. For odd numbers of mutually-resonant lossless coupled ring resonators, the circulating intensity can increase exponentially with the number of resonators, which can potentially be exploited for the development of advanced sensors. For even numbers of resonators, mode splitting and classical destructive interference lead to a cancellation of absorption and slow light on-resonance, reminiscent of electromagnetic induced transparency. The analogy between these coherent photon trapping effects and population trapping in an atomic system will be explored.

Smith, David D.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Validation of an In-Water, Tower-Shading Correction Scheme

Large offshore structures used for the deployment of optical instruments can significantly perturb the intensity of the light field surrounding the optical measurement point, where different portions of the visible spectrum are subject to different shadowing effects. These effects degrade the quality of the acquired optical data and can reduce the accuracy of several derived quantities, such as those obtained by applying bio-optical algorithms directly to the shadow-perturbed data. As a result, optical remote sensing calibration and validation studies can be impaired if shadowing artifacts are not fully accounted for. In this work, the general in-water shadowing problem is examined for a particular case study. Backward Monte Carlo (MC) radiative transfer computations- performed in a vertically stratified, horizontally inhomogeneous, and realistic ocean-atmosphere system are shown to accurately simulate the shadow-induced relative percent errors affecting the radiance and irradiance data profiles acquired close to an oceanographic tower. Multiparameter optical data processing has provided adequate representation of experimental uncertainties allowing consistent comparison with simulations. The more detailed simulations at the subsurface depth appear to be essentially equivalent to those obtained assuming a simplified ocean-atmosphere system, except in highly stratified waters. MC computations performed in the simplified system can be assumed, therefore, to accurately simulate the optical measurements conducted under more complex sampling conditions (i.e., within waters presenting moderate stratification at most). A previously reported correction scheme, based on the simplified MC simulations, and developed for subsurface shadow-removal processing of in-water optical data taken close to the investigated oceanographic tower, is then validated adequately under most experimental conditions. It appears feasible to generalize the present tower-specific approach to solve other optical sensor shadowing problems pertaining to differently shaped deployment platforms, and also including surrounding structures and instrument casings.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗

NASA NTRS1998

T wave alternans as a predictor of recurrent ventricular tachyarrhythmias in ICD recipients: prospective comparison with conventional risk markers

INTRODUCTION: The current standard for arrhythmic risk stratification is electrophysiologic (EP) testing, which, due to its invasive nature, is limited to patients already known to be at high risk. A number of noninvasive tests, such as determination of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) or heart rate variability, have been evaluated as additional risk stratifiers. Microvolt T wave alternans (TWA) is a promising new risk marker. Prospective evaluation of noninvasive risk markers in low- or moderate-risk populations requires studies involving very large numbers of patients, and in such studies, documentation of the occurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias is difficult. In the present study, we identified a high-risk population, recipients of an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD), and prospectively compared microvolt TWA with invasive EP testing and other risk markers with respect to their ability to predict recurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias as documented by ICD electrograms. METHODS AND RESULTS: Ninety-five patients with a history of ventricular tachyarrhythmias undergoing implantation of an ICD underwent EP testing, assessment of TWA, as well as determination of LVEF, baroreflex sensitivity, signal-averaged ECG, analysis of 24-hour Holter monitoring, and QT dispersion from the 12-lead surface ECG. The endpoint of the study was first appropriate ICD therapy for electrogram-documented ventricular fibrillation or tachycardia during follow-up. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that TWA (P < 0.006) and LVEF (P < 0.04) were the only significant univariate risk stratifiers. EP testing was not statistically significant (P < 0.2). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that TWA was the only statistically significant independent risk factor. CONCLUSIONS: Measurement of microvolt TWA compared favorably with both invasive EP testing and other currently used noninvasive risk assessment methods in predicting recurrence of ventricular tachyarrhythmias in ICD recipients. This study suggests that TWA might also be a powerful tool for risk stratification in low- or moderate-risk patients, and needs to be prospectively evaluated in such populations.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2008

Model Effects on GLAS-Based Regional Estimates of Forest Biomass and Carbon

ICESat/GLAS waveform data are used to estimate biomass and carbon on a 1.27 million sq km study area. the Province of Quebec, Canada, below treeline. The same input data sets and sampling design are used in conjunction with four different predictive models to estimate total aboveground dry forest biomass and forest carbon. The four models include nonstratified and stratified versions of a multiple linear model where either biomass or (square root of) biomass serves as the dependent variable. The use of different models in Quebec introduces differences in Provincial biomass estimates of up to 0.35 Gt (range 4.942+/-0.28 Gt to 5.29+/-0.36 Gt). The results suggest that if different predictive models are used to estimate regional carbon stocks in different epochs, e.g., y2005, y2015, one might mistakenly infer an apparent aboveground carbon "change" of, in this case, 0.18 Gt, or approximately 7% of the aboveground carbon in Quebec, due solely to the use of different predictive models. These findings argue for model consistency in future, LiDAR-based carbon monitoring programs. Regional biomass estimates from the four GLAS models are compared to ground estimates derived from an extensive network of 16,814 ground plots located in southern Quebec. Stratified models proved to be more accurate and precise than either of the two nonstratified models tested.

Nelson, Ross↗

NASA NTRS2010

Tool for Forecasting Cool-Season Peak Winds Across Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily morning forecast for ground and space launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) must issue forecast advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect peak gusts for >= 25, >= 35, and >= 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. In Phase I of this task, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a cool-season (October - April) tool to help forecast the non-convective peak wind from the surface to 300 ft at KSC/CCAFS. During the warm season, these wind speeds are rarely exceeded except during convective winds or under the influence of tropical cyclones, for which other techniques are already in use. The tool used single and multiple linear regression equations to predict the peak wind from the morning sounding. The forecaster manually entered several observed sounding parameters into a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI), and then the tool displayed the forecast peak wind speed, average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, the timing of the peak wind and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed 35, 50 and 60 kt. The 45 WS customers later dropped the requirement for >= 60 kt wind warnings. During Phase II of this task, the AMU expanded the period of record (POR) by six years to increase the number of observations used to create the forecast equations. A large number of possible predictors were evaluated from archived soundings, including inversion depth and strength, low-level wind shear, mixing height, temperature lapse rate and winds from the surface to 3000 ft. Each day in the POR was stratified in a number of ways, such as by low-level wind direction, synoptic weather pattern, precipitation and Bulk Richardson number. The most accurate Phase II equations were then selected for an independent verification. The Phase I and II forecast methods were compared using an independent verification data set. The two methods were compared to climatology, wind warnings and advisories issued by the 45 WS, and North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) forecast winds. The performance of the Phase I and II methods were similar with respect to mean absolute error. Since the Phase I data were not stratified by precipitation, this method's peak wind forecasts had a large negative bias on days with precipitation and a small positive bias on days with no precipitation. Overall, the climatology methods performed the worst while the MesoNAM performed the best. Since the MesoNAM winds were the most accurate in the comparison, the final version of the tool was based on the MesoNAM winds. The probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the warning thresholds were based on the one standard deviation error bars from the linear regression. For example, the linear regression might forecast the most likely peak speed to be 35 kt and the error bars used to calculate that the probability of >= 25 kt = 76%, the probability of >= 35 kt = 50%, and the probability of >= 50 kt = 19%. The authors have not seen this application of linear regression error bars in any other meteorological applications. Although probability forecast tools should usually be developed with logistic regression, this technique could be easily generalized to any linear regression forecast tool to estimate the probability of exceeding any desired threshold . This could be useful for previously developed linear regression forecast tools or new forecast applications where statistical analysis software to perform logistic regression is not available. The tool was delivered in two formats - a Microsoft Excel GUI and a Tool Command Language/Tool Kit (Tcl/Tk) GUI in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The Microsoft Excel GUI reads a MesoNAM text file containing hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours, from one model run (00 or 12 UTC). The GUI then displays e peak wind speed, average wind speed, and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the 25-, 35- and 50-kt thresholds. The user can display the Day-1 through Day-3 peak wind forecasts, and separate forecasts are made for precipitation and non-precipitation days. The MIDDS GUI uses data from the NAM and Global Forecast System (GFS), instead of the MesoNAM. It can display Day-1 and Day-2 forecasts using NAM data, and Day-1 through Day-5 forecasts using GFS data. The timing of the peak wind is not displayed, since the independent verification showed that none of the forecast methods performed significantly better than climatology. The forecaster should use the climatological timing of the peak wind (2248 UTC) as a first guess and then adjust it based on the movement of weather features.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗