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At least 271 records · Page 15

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NASA NTRS2021

Severity of Drought and Heatwave Crop Losses Tripled Over the Last Five Decades in Europe

Extreme weather disasters (EWDs) can jeopardize domestic food supply and disrupt commodity markets. However, historical impacts on European crop production associated with droughts, heatwaves, floods, and cold waves are not well understood—especially in view of potential adverse trends in the severity of impacts due to climate change. Here, we combine observational agricultural data (FAOSTAT) with an extreme weather disaster database (EM-DAT) between 1961 and 2018 to evaluate European crop production responses to EWD. Using a compositing approach (superposed epoch analysis), we show that historical droughts and heatwaves reduced European cereal yields on average by 9% and 7.3%, respectively, associated with a wide range of responses (inter-quartile range +2% to −23%; +2% to −17%). Non-cereal yields declined by 3.8% and 3.1% during the same set of events. Cold waves led to cereal and non-cereal yield declines by 1.3% and 2.6%, while flood impacts were marginal and not statistically significant. Production losses are largely driven by yield declines, with no significant changes in harvested area. While all four event frequencies significantly increased over time, the severity of heatwave and drought impacts on crop production roughly tripled over the last 50 years, from −2.2% (1964–1990) to −7.3% (1991–2015). Drought-related cereal production losses are shown to intensify by more than 3% yr−1. Both the trend in frequency and severity can possibly be explained by changes in the vulnerability of the exposed system and underlying climate change impacts.

Extreme weather disasters↗

NASA NTRS1991

Avalanche photodiode photon counting receivers for space-borne lidars

Avalanche photodiodes (APD) are studied for uses as photon counting detectors in spaceborne lidars. Non-breakdown APD photon counters, in which the APD's are biased below the breakdown point, are shown to outperform: (1) conventional APD photon counters biased above the breakdown point; (2) conventional APD photon counters biased above the breakdown point; and (3) APD's in analog mode when the received optical signal is extremely weak. Non-breakdown APD photon counters were shown experimentally to achieve an effective photon counting quantum efficiency of 5.0 percent at lambda = 820 nm with a dead time of 15 ns and a dark count rate of 7000/s which agreed with the theoretically predicted values. The interarrival times of the counts followed an exponential distribution and the counting statistics appeared to follow a Poisson distribution with no after pulsing. It is predicted that the effective photon counting quantum efficiency can be improved to 18.7 percent at lambda = 820 nm and 1.46 percent at lambda = 1060 nm with a dead time of a few nanoseconds by using more advanced commercially available electronic components.

Sun, Xiaoli↗

NASA NTRS1994

Evaluation of current tropospheric mapping functions by Deep Space Network very long baseline interferometry

To compare the validity of current algorithms that map zenith tropospheric delay to arbitrary elevation angles, 10 different tropospheric mapping functions are used to analyze the current data base of Deep Space Network Mark 3 intercontinental very long baseline interferometric (VLBI) data. This analysis serves as a stringent test because of the high proportion of low-elevation observations necessitated by the extremely long baselines. Postfit delay and delay-rate residuals are examined, as well as the scatter of baseline lengths about the time-linear model that characterizes tectonic motion. Among the functions that utilize surface meteorological data as input parameters, the Lanyi 1984 mapping shows the best performance both for residuals and baselines, through the 1985 Davis function is statistically nearly identical. The next best performance is shown by the recent function of Niell, which is based on an examination of global atmospheric characteristics as a function of season and uses no weather data at the time of the measurements. The Niell function shows a slight improvement in residuals relative to Lanyi, but also an increase in baseline scatter that is significant for the California-Spain baseline. Two variants of the Chao mapping function, as well as the Chao tables used with the interpolation algorithm employed in the Orbit Determination Program software, show substandard behavior for both VLBI residuals and baseline scatter. The length of the California-Australia baseline (10,600 km) in the VLBI solution can vary by as much as 5 to 10 cm for the 10 mapping functions.

Sovers, O. J.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Validation of a Deterministic Vibroacoustic Response Prediction Model

This report documents the recently completed effort involving validation of a deterministic theory for the random vibration problem of predicting the response of launch pad structures in the low-frequency range (0 to 50 hertz). Use of the Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) methods is not suitable in this range. Measurements of launch-induced acoustic loads and subsequent structural response were made on a cantilever beam structure placed in close proximity (200 feet) to the launch pad. Innovative ways of characterizing random, nonstationary, non-Gaussian acoustics are used for the development of a structure's excitation model. Extremely good correlation was obtained between analytically computed responses and those measured on the cantilever beam. Additional tests are recommended to bound the problem to account for variations in launch trajectory and inclination.

Caimi, Raoul E.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Advancing Methodologies for Applying Machine Learning and Evaluating Spatiotemporal Models of Fine Particulate Matter (PM 2.5 ) Using Satellite Data Over Large Regions

Reconstructing the distribution of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) in space and time, even far from ground monitoring sites, is an important exposure science contribution to epidemiologic analyses of PM 2.5 health impacts. Flexible statistical methods for prediction have demonstrated the integration of satellite observations with other predictors, yet these algorithms are susceptible to overfitting the spatiotemporal structure of the training datasets. We present a new approach for predicting PM 2.5 using machine-learning methods and evaluating prediction models for the goal of making predictions where they were not previously available. We apply extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) modeling to predict daily PM 2.5 on a 1 x 1 km 2 resolution for a 13 state region in the Northeastern USA for the years 2000–2015 using satellite-derived aerosol optical depth and implement a recursive feature selection to develop a parsimonious model. We demonstrate excellent predictions of withheld observations but also contrast an RMSE of 3.11 μg/m 3 in our spatial cross-validation withholding nearby sites versus an overfit RMSE of 2.10 μg/m 3 using a more conventional random ten-fold splitting of the dataset. As the field of exposure science moves forward with the use of advanced machine-learning approaches for spatiotemporal modeling of air pollutants, our results show the importance of addressing data leakage in training, overfitting to spatiotemporal structure, and the impact of the predominance of ground monitoring sites in dense urban sub-networks on model evaluation. The strengths of our resultant modeling approach for exposure in epidemiologic studies of PM 2.5 include improved efficiency, parsimony, and interpretability with robust validation while still accommodating complex spatiotemporal relationships.

air pollution↗

NASA NTRS1984

A statistical evaluation and comparison of VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) data and corresponding rawinsonde measurements

Three mesoscale sounding data sets from the VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) produced using different retrieval techniques were evaluated of corresponding ground truth rawinsonde data for 6-7 March 1982. Mean, standard deviations, and RMS differences between the satellite and rawinsonde parameters were calculated over gridded fields in central Texas and Oklahoma. Large differences exist between each satellite data set and the ground truth data. Biases in the satellite temperature and moisture profiles seem extremely dependent upon the three dimensional structure of the atmosphere and range from 1 deg to 3 deg C for temperature and 3 deg to 6 deg C for dewpoint temperature. Atmospheric gradients of basic and derived parameters determined from the VAS data sets produced an adequate representation of the mesoscale environment but their magnitudes were often reduced by 30 to 50%.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1997

White-light coronal mass ejections: A new perspective from LASCO

More than 275 coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were recorded by the large angle spectroscopic coronagraph (LASCO) from January 1996 through August 1997. Some of the characteristics of 65 of these CMEs, occurring during a three month period (May to July 1997) were quantified. During this time the rate of CME detection was about 0.7 CMEs per day; the distribution of apparent latitudes was clustererd near the equator with an average latitude of 3 deg N; the average width of the CMEs was 49 deg; and the average speed was 324 km/s. The statistical measures and the distributions for these CMEs agree with the existing literature. One new result was the high fraction (plus or minus 35 deg) of CMEs with at least one concave-outward morphological feature, which was considered a possible signature of magnetic disconnection. A new small-scale phenomenon that appears to be the white light counterpart of the extreme ultraviolet microjets detected in the polar coronal holes is described.

St.Cyr, O. C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Instrumental and observational requirements for space-based imaging of magnetospheric emissions

Simulated images of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) emissions from energetic outflowing ions have been constructed to study techniques for remotely sensing the dynamic behavior of hot plasmas in the near-Earth environment. These calculations include realistic assumptions about the energetic ion outflow from high latitudes and take into account the effects of cold plasmaspheric and ionospheric ions. The energetic ion outflow is determined from a statistical study based on five years of measurements from the Energetic Ion Composition Spectrometer on Dynamics Explorer 1. The simulated images change significantly with viewing geometry and certain spacecraft locations are clearly favorable for observing emissions from energetic ions. For example, for a near equatorial orbit, viewing locations greater than 9 Earth radii are required to observe outflowing ions above the cold plasmaspheric background. We will discuss other important considerations for magnetospheric imaging including the sensitivity requirements of the detector. In particular, we consider the performance of multi-layer optics for EUV wavelengths.

Robinson, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Implications of the Warm Corona and Relativistic Reflection Models for the Soft Excess in Mrk 509

We present the analysis of the first Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array observations (∼220 ks), simultaneous with the last Suzaku observations (∼50 ks), of the active galactic nucleus of the bright Seyfert 1 galaxy Mrk 509. The time-averaged spectrum in the 1–79 keV X-ray band is dominated by a power-law continuum (Γ ∼ 1.8–1.9), a strong soft excess around 1 keV, and signatures of X-ray reflection in the form of Fe K emission (∼6.4 keV), an Fe K absorption edge (∼7.1 keV), and a Compton hump due to electron scattering (∼20–30 keV). We show that these data can be described by two very different prescriptions for the soft excess: a warm (kT ∼ 0.5–1 keV) and optically thick (τ ∼ 10–20) Comptonizing corona or a relativistically blurred ionized reflection spectrum from the inner regions of the accretion disk. While these two scenarios cannot be distinguished based on their fit statistics, we argue that the parameters required by the warm corona model are physically incompatible with the conditions of standard coronae. Detailed photoionization calculations show that even in the most favorable conditions, the warm corona should produce strong absorption in the observed spectrum. On the other hand, while the relativistic reflection model provides a satisfactory description of the data, it also requires extreme parameters, such as maximum black hole spin, a very low and compact hot corona, and a very high density for the inner accretion disk. Deeper observations of this source are thus necessary to confirm the presence of relativistic reflection and further understand the nature of its soft excess.

Javier Garcia↗

NASA NTRS1973

Distributions of eight meteorological variables at Cape Kennedy, Florida and Vandenberg Air Force Base, California

Extreme values, median values, and nine percentile values are tabulated for eight meteorological variables at Cape Kennedy, Florida and at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. The variables are temperature, relative humidity, station pressure, water vapor pressure, water vapor mixing ratio, density, and enthalpy. For each month eight hours are tabulated, namely, 0100, 0400, 0700, 1000, 1300, 1600, 1900, and 2200 local time. These statistics are intended for general use for the space shuttle design trade-off analysis and are not to be used for specific design values.

Graves, M. E.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Sensing propagation events and fade statistics at C-band for two over-water, line-of-sight propagation paths over a one year period

We examine signal fading statistics over a year period corresponding to two over-water, line-of-site, propagation links in the mid-Atlantic coast of the US. These links are comprised of a transmitter on a tower at Parramore Island, VA operating at 4.7 GHz sending simultaneous cw signals to two receiver systems located on a lighthouse and a lookout tower on Assateague Beach, VA at distances of 44 and 39 km, respectively. The receiving sites are separated by approximately 5 km. Cumulative fade distributions corresponding to yearly, monthly, and diurnal time scales were derived. Fade duration statistics correspond to sustained attenuation events were also derived. These events, which were arbitrarily defined as having fades relative to free space powers in excess of 20 dB for durations of two hours or more, are believed to be generally due to subrefraction. Analysis of synoptic weather conditions and nearby rawindsonde data during two sustained deep fading periods showed atmospheric conditions consistent with extreme subrefraction, where the refractivity-height profile had a positive lapse rate. The efficacy of employing the links as indicators of real time conditions of atmospheric propagation was also demonstrated by a telephone call-up procedure which enabled displays of time series of the fading at remote locations to be generated.

Goldhirsh, Julius↗

NASA NTRS2026

Mechanical Properties of Carbon Fiber Reinforced Composites Exposed to Cryogenic Conditions and Space Radiation via Simulation and Testing

As NASA missions extend beyond low Earth orbit, increasing reliance is placed on carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composites for spacecraft structures where mass efficiency, durability, and long-term reliability are critical. In service, these materials are subjected to a combination of ultraviolet radiation, vacuum, ionizing radiation, atomic oxygen, and extreme thermal excursions under sustained mechanical loading. Flight systems such as the Boeing Starliner and SpaceX Dragon employ external composite structures that will experience these environments for extended durations. Although prior spaceflight and ground studies have reported limited changes in bulk mechanical properties, the synergistic effects of these environments on composite microstructure, particularly at the fiber matrix interphase, remain insufficiently characterized and represent a potential qualification and reliability risk. This study investigates the effects of short-term cryogenic exposure on a radiation shielding carbon epoxy composite, SC2020, as a ground-based analog for space relevant thermal extremes. The SC2020 material system has previously flown on the International Space Station under the Materials International Space Station Experiment (MISSE) program. Composite specimens were exposed to liquid nitrogen for 6 and 24 hours and evaluated using a multiscale characterization framework that combined ASTM D3039 tensile testing, Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) based interphase analysis, and helium gas permeability measurements. Tensile testing showed no statistically significant or permanent degradation in global strength or modulus following cryogenic exposure. In contrast, AFM measurements revealed reductions in interphase modulus, weakened adhesion, and increased nanoscale heterogeneity, indicating localized degradation mechanisms not captured by conventional bulk testing. Gas permeability measurements showed a progressive increase in helium diffusion with exposure duration, consistent with micro-void formation or partial interfacial debonding. The results indicate that cryogenic exposure initiates degradation at the fiber matrix interphase while leaving global mechanical properties largely unchanged over short durations. These findings underscore the importance of multiscale diagnostics for identifying early-stage damage mechanisms that may influence long term performance and qualification margins for spaceflight composite structures. The data presented establish a cryogenic baseline for comparison with forthcoming MISSE flight exposure results and support ongoing NASA Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR) efforts aimed at improving composite qualification methodologies, risk assessment, and reliability prediction for space environments.

composite reliability↗

NASA NTRS1993

A cluster of Nascent galaxies at z = 2?

On a 6 hr Wide Field Camera exposure with the Hubble Space Telescope of the rich cluster CL 0939 + 4713, we have identified an apparent cluster of about 30 faint, extended objects with magnitudes in the range of 22 to 25. The objects are typically 1 arcsec in size with bright central regions only a few tenths of an arcsecond in size, and are distributed over a region approximately 40 arcsec long and 20 arcsec wide. A simple statistical analysis indicates that the clustering is probably real. The size and appearance of the individual objects, their blue colors, and their clustering, leads us to speculate that they are associated, and that they are considerably more distant than the cluster CL 0939 + 4713 at z = 0.40, probably at a redshift greater than 1. Among the strongest concentration of these objects is an unresolved, extremely blue object with the spectrum of a QSO at z = 2.055. We suggest that many of the small, faint objects could be physically associated with this QSO.

Dressler, Alan↗

NASA NTRS1995

Observations of IMF and seasonal effects in high-latitude convection

Strong interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and seasonal effects in the convection of nightside ionospheric plasma are described. The findings are based on a statistical analysis of observations made with the Johns Hopkins University/ Applied Physics Lab (JHU/APL) HF radar located at Goose Bay, Labrador. For positive sign of the IMF dusk-dawn component, By greater than 0 the dawn cell is more crescent shaped and the dusk cell more round while for BY less than 0 these pairings of size and shape are reversed. The more extreme crescent /round cell dichotomy is obtained for BY greater than 0. The return flows associated with the crescent-shaped cell dominate at midnight MLT (magnetic local time); the reversal in the zonal velocity in the 67 deg-69 deg lambda (magnetic latitude) interval occurs 2.5 hr earlier in summer than in winter. The maximum effects are obtained on the nightside for the pairings By greater than 0, summer and BY less than 0, winter; the first produces the more structured cell in the morning, the second in the evening, and this cell dominates the return flow at midnight. The difference in the zonal flow reversals for these pairings exceeds 4 hr in MLT.

Ruohoniemi, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS2014

The 60 Month All-Sky Burst Alert Telescope Survey of Active Galactic Nucleus and the Anisotropy of Nearby AGNs

Surveys above 10 keV represent one of the best resources to provide an unbiased census of the population of active galactic nuclei (AGNs). We present the results of 60 months of observation of the hard X-ray sky with Swift/Burst Alert Telescope (BAT). In this time frame, BAT-detected (in the 15-55 keV band) 720 sources in an all-sky survey of which 428 are associated with AGNs, most of which are nearby. Our sample has negligible incompleteness and statistics a factor of approx. 2 larger over similarly complete sets of AGNs. Our sample contains (at least) 15 bona fide Compton-thick AGNs and 3 likely candidates. Compton-thick AGNs represent approx. 5% of AGN samples detected above 15 keV. We use the BAT data set to refine the determination of the log N-log S of AGNs which is extremely important, now that NuSTAR prepares for launch, toward assessing the AGN contribution to the cosmic X-ray background. We show that the log N-log S of AGNs selected above 10 keV is now established to approx. 10% precision. We derive the luminosity function of Compton-thick AGNs and measure a space density of 7.9(+4.1/−2.9)× 10(exp −5)/cubic Mpc for objects with a de-absorbed luminosity larger than 2 × 10(exp 42) erg / s. As the BAT AGNs are all mostly local, they allow us to investigate the spatial distribution of AGNs in the nearby universe regardless of absorption. We find concentrations of AGNs that coincide spatially with the largest congregations of matter in the local (much < 85 Mpc) universe. There is some evidence that the fraction of Seyfert 2 objects is larger than average in the direction of these dense regions..

SURVEY↗

NASA NTRS1982

Sudden loss of mass from a binary gravitating system

Mitalas's (1980) study is generalized to treat sudden mass loss from a binary syste in an originally elliptical orbit. The orbits are characterized by angular momentum and energy, and it is shown that none of the changes in the relative orbit depends on which object it is that loses part of its mass. It is pointed out that, in principle, each could lose a different fraction. Time averages are introduced so that the orbital changes, which depend on where in orbit the mass loss takes place, can be suitably averaged over a statistical ensemble of initial systems. Even though many results that appear to be new are presented, it is noted that the main thrust is to choose and manipulate variables yielding the greatest economy of description and the greatest power of computation. Graphs are included showing the fraction of systems that on the average will be disrupted, the mean orbital changes for the survivors, and the extreme limits for the change in eccentricity.

Noerdlinger, P. D.↗

NASA NTRS1997

A New Approach to Extreme Value Estimation Applicable to a Wide Variety of Random Variables

Designing reliable structures requires an estimate of the maximum and minimum values (i.e., strength and load) that may be encountered in service. Yet designs based on very extreme values (to insure safety) can result in extra material usage and hence, uneconomic systems. In aerospace applications, severe over-design cannot be tolerated making it almost mandatory to design closer to the assumed limits of the design random variables. The issue then is predicting extreme values that are practical, i.e. neither too conservative or non-conservative. Obtaining design values by employing safety factors is well known to often result in overly conservative designs and. Safety factor values have historically been selected rather arbitrarily, often lacking a sound rational basis. To answer the question of how safe a design needs to be has lead design theorists to probabilistic and statistical methods. The so-called three-sigma approach is one such method and has been described as the first step in utilizing information about the data dispersion. However, this method is based on the assumption that the random variable is dispersed symmetrically about the mean and is essentially limited to normally distributed random variables. Use of this method can therefore result in unsafe or overly conservative design allowables if the common assumption of normality is incorrect.

Holland, Frederic A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Augmentation of blood circulation to the fingers by warming distant body areas

Future activities in space will require greater periods of time in extreme environments in which the body periphery will be vulnerable to chilling. Maintaining the hands and fingers in comfortable conditions enhances finger flexibility and dexterity, and thus effects better work performance. We have evaluated the efficacy of promoting heat transfer and release by the extremities by increasing the blood flow to the periphery from more distant parts of the body. The experimental garment paradigm developed by the investigators was used to manipulate the temperature of different body areas. Six subjects, two females and four males, were evaluated in a stage-1 baseline condition, with the inlet temperature of the circulating water in the liquid cooling/warming garment (LCWG) at 33 degrees C. At stage 2 the total LCWG water inlet temperature was cooled to 8 degrees C, and at stage 3 the inlet water temperature in specific segments of the LCWG was warmed (according to protocol) to 45 degrees C, while the inlet temperature in the rest of the LCWG was maintained at 8 degrees C. The following four body-area-warming conditions were studied in separate sessions: (1) head, (2) upper torso/arm, (3) upper torso/arm/head, and (4) legs/feet. Skin temperature, heat flux and blood perfusion of the fingers, and subjective perception of thermal sensations and overall physical comfort were assessed. Finger temperature (T(fing)) analyses showed a statistically significant condition x stage interaction. Post-hoc comparisons (T(fing)) indicated that at stage 3, the upper torso/arm/head warming condition was significantly different from the head, upper torso/arm and legs/feet conditions, showing an increase in T(fing). There was a significant increase in blood perfusion in the fingers at stage 3 in all conditions. Subjective perception of hand warmth, and overall physical comfort level significantly increased in the stage 3 upper torso/arm/head condition. The findings indicate that physiological methods to enhance heat transfer by the blood to the periphery within protective clothing provide an additional tool for increasing total and local human comfort in extreme environments.

NASA Discipline Life Sciences Technologies↗