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At least 271 records · Page 15

Anomalous kaon correlations measured in Pb-Pb collisions at the LHC as evidence for the melting and refreezing of the QCD vacuum

Measurements of the dynamical correlations between neutral and charged kaons in central Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{S_{NN}}$ = 2.76 TeV by the ALICE Collaboration display anomalous behavior relative to conventional heavy-ion collision simulators. We consider other conventional statistical models, none of which can reproduce the magnitude and centrality dependence of the correlations. The data can be reproduced by coherent emission from domains which grow in number and volume with increasing centrality. We study the dynamical evolution of the strange quark condensate and show that the energy released during the expansion and cooling of the system may be sufficient to explain the anomaly.

Kapusta, Joseph↗

Guide field effects on the distribution of plasmoids in multiple scale reconnection

The effects of a finite guide field on the distribution of plasmoids in high-Lundquist-number current sheets undergoing magnetic reconnection in large plasmas are investigated with statistical models. Merging of plasmoids is taken into account either assuming that guide field flux is conserved resulting in nonforce-free profiles in general, or that magnetic helicity is conserved and Taylor relaxation occurs to convert part of the summed guide field flux into reconnecting field flux toward minimum energy states resulting in force-free profiles. It is found that the plasmoid distribution in terms of reconnecting field flux follows a power law with index 7/4 or 1 depending on whether merger frequencies are independent of or dependent on their relative velocity to the outflow speed, respectively. This result is approximately the same for the force-free and nonforce-free models, with nonforce-free models exhibiting indices of 2 and 1 for the same velocity dependencies. Distributions in terms of guide field flux yield indices of 3/2 for the nonforce-free model regardless of velocity dependence. This is notably distinct from the indices of 11/8 and 1 for the force-free models independent of and dependent on velocity, respectively. At low guide field fluxes, the force-free models exhibit a second power law index of 1/2 due to nonconstant flux growth rates. The velocity-dependent force-free model predicts the production of slightly more rapidly moving large guide field flux plasmoids which are supported by observational evidence of flux ropes with strong core fields. Implications are discussed on particle acceleration via Fermi processes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Statistical analysis of displacement damage in small devices from neutron and ion irradiation

Modern semiconductor devices, such as gate-all-around nanosheet field-effect transistors (GAA NS FETs), are smaller than displacement damage cascades from fission neutrons. In this regime, device failure may occur through low-probability single events, rather than by parametric degradation previously seen in larger devices. Here, we present a statistical model that predicts the probability of a damage event in a small device and the probability distribution of the magnitude, i.e., number of displacements within the device, from each event. The model is developed first for neutron irradiation and then for energetic ion irradiation. The model is consistent with results from recent experiments in which lithium-ion irradiation produced stepwise increases in subthreshold current in GAA NS FETs.

Wampler, W. R.↗

Progress toward hydro-equivalent ignition in OMEGA direct-drive DT-layered implosions

Considerable progress has been made in deuterium-tritium-layered implosion experiments on the OMEGA Laser System, bringing the prospects for thermonuclear ignition in direct-drive configurations with megajoule-class lasers closer to reality. Doing so has required navigating the balance between improved 1D performance and multidimensional stability. Using statistical modeling based on over 350 cryogenic implosions to identify various degradation mechanisms, and combined with multidimensional simulations and experimental techniques such as target offsets to combat residual flows, core conditions have repeatably been achieved that extrapolate to the burning-plasma state when scaled to 2.15 MJ of symmetric laser illumination. Using high implosion velocities (⁠> 450 km/s) and moderately high adiabats (⁠~5⁠), these experiments produced record-high scaled Lawson parameters in direct drive equal to 89 ± 2% of that required for ignition with expected yields of up to 1.5 ± 0.2 MJ. To improve these results still further, focused physics studies are performed to improve physics understanding and identify routes to even greater performance. Recent studies include investigations into the impact of mounting features, laser imprint, reduced fuel temperatures, and greater on-target intensities through subscale experiments. This manuscript gives a summary of the cryogenic direct-drive program on the OMEGA laser, including routes taken to achieve the current best performance, the status of recent focused physics investigations, and future designs—such as target solutions to laser imprint and reducing vapor density to increase convergence—that are expected lead to the demonstration of hydro-equivalent ignition on OMEGA.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Specific features of fluorescence transfer in multiply scattering randomly inhomogeneous layers under intense laser pumping

Based on the analysis of experimental data on the effect of the pulsed laser pump intensity on the spectral properties and the size of the fluorescent response zone in randomly inhomogeneous fluorescent layers, we found that the amplification of spontaneous and stimulated emission significantly affects the statistical properties of the propagation lengths of the fluorescent field partial components in the layers. The experiments are performed with layers of SiO{sub 2} and TiO{sub 2} nanoparticles saturated with rhodamine 6G, pumped by 532-nm laser radiation in the intensity range corresponding to the transient regime from excitation of spontaneous fluorescence to random lasing in the layer. The experimental data are compared with the results of statistical modelling of fluorescence transfer. It is shown that, even at a pump intensity below the random lasing threshold, the spontaneous emission amplification in a layer leads to a significant increase in the contributions to the fluorescence response from partial components with propagation lengths much larger than the layer thickness. This can be interpreted as a manifestation of the quasi-waveguide effect, in which the probability of propagation of diffuse fluorescence components along the layer over distances many times greater than its thickness and the size of the pumped region increases significantly with a decrease in the characteristic radiation amplification length in the layer. (paper)

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Superdiffusion of quantized vortices uncovering scaling laws in quantum turbulence

Significance Quantum turbulence (QT) can appear in the presence of a chaotic tangle of quantized vortices in various quantum-fluid systems, including atomic Bose–Einstein condensates, superfluid helium, superfluid neutron stars, etc. Insights into the generic scaling behaviors of tangled vortices are crucial in developing an advanced statistical model of QT. By tracking tracer particles trapped on vortices in superfluid 4 He, we report the observation of an apparent superdiffusion of the vortices in QT. Our analysis shows that this superdiffusion is not due to Lévy flights, i.e., long-distance hops that are responsible for superdiffusion of random walkers. Instead, a power-law scaling of the vortex–velocity correlation is identified as the cause. This finding may motivate extensive future research on hidden scaling laws in QT.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Assessing residential PM 2.5 concentrations and infiltration factors with high spatiotemporal resolution using crowdsourced sensors

Building conditions, outdoor climate, and human behavior influence residential concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ). To study PM 2.5 spatiotemporal variability in residences, we acquired paired indoor and outdoor PM 2.5 measurements at 3,977 residences across the United States totaling >10,000 monitor-years of time-resolved data (10-min resolution) from the PurpleAir network. Time-series analysis and statistical modeling apportioned residential PM 2.5 concentrations to outdoor sources (median residential contribution = 52% of total, coefficient of variation = 69%), episodic indoor emission events such as cooking (28%, CV = 210%) and persistent indoor sources (20%, CV = 112%). Residences in the temperate marine climate zone experienced higher infiltration factors, consistent with expectations for more time with open windows in milder climates. Likewise, for all climate zones, infiltration factors were highest in summer and lowest in winter, decreasing by approximately half in most climate zones. Large outdoor–indoor temperature differences were associated with lower infiltration factors, suggesting particle losses from active filtration occurred during heating and cooling. Absolute contributions from both outdoor and indoor sources increased during wildfire events. Infiltration factors decreased during periods of high outdoor PM 2.5 , such as during wildfires, reducing potential exposures from outdoor-origin particles but increasing potential exposures to indoor-origin particles. Time-of-day analysis reveals that episodic emission events are most frequent during mealtimes as well as on holidays (Thanksgiving and Christmas), indicating that cooking-related activities are a strong episodic emission source of indoor PM 2.5 in monitored residences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of the Shattered Pellet Injection Fragment Plumes Generated by Machine Specific Shatter Tube Designs

Shattered pellet injector systems have been installed on DIII-D, JET, and KSTAR and used to experimentally determine the effectiveness of the shattered pellet injection (SPI) process in mitigating the deleterious effects of a tokamak plasma disruption. Pellets are fired, and before entering the plasma, strike a bent tube known as a shatter tube causing the pellet to shatter. The process of pellet fragmentation is a chaotic process that can be described in terms of fragment size distribution through a statistical model that incorporates the effects of the pellet material and impact characteristics. In addition to the fragment size distribution, the shatter plume has other characteristics of interest, such as a fragment velocity distribution and temporal mass evolution. The fragment velocity distribution is important because it is needed to accurately model the spread and location of the ablation and the deposition of impurities in the plasma over time. The temporal mass evolution is necessary to determine the time-resolved delivery of mass to the plasma.Due to installation constraints, the shatter tube currently installed on JET has a unique geometry with a modest S-bend followed by a 20-deg bend at the end of the tube. The DIII-D and KSTAR shatter tube design is a simple tube bent through an angle of 20 deg followed by a straight section. The resulting shatter sprays from the JET shatter tube and a 20-deg miter bend shatter tube were experimentally characterized for various pellet materials and speeds. Laboratory testing of these shatter tubes allows for the use of fast cameras to capture the fragment spray traveling through a large vacuum chamber. These high-speed videos of the shatter plumes allow the fragment size distribution, temporal mass evolution, and velocity distribution of the fragments within the plume to be determined. Overall, this paper presents a comparison of the unique geometry of the JET shatter tube to the miter bend geometries used for shattering and some insight into the variables that may be adjusted to produce the optimal shatter spray. The impact of entrained propellant gas on the resulting shatter spray was examined during testing.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Avoiding biases in binned fits

Abstract Binned maximum likelihood fits are an attractive option when analysing large datasets, but require care when computing likelihoods of continuous PDFs in bins.For many years the widely used statistical modelling package evaluated probabilities at the bin centre, leading to significant biases for strongly curved probability density functions.We demonstrate the biases with real-world examples, and introduce a PDF class to that removes these biases.The physics and computation performance of this new class are discussed.

Instruments & Instrumentation↗

Improving tropical cyclone rapid intensification forecasts with satellite measurements of sea surface salinity and calibrated machine learning

Forecasting rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TC) is a mission known for large errors. One under-researched factor that affects TC intensification is salinity, which is important for density stratification in certain ocean regions and can affect the surface enthalpy flux under a strengthening hurricane. To investigate the impact and efficacy of using salinity information in state-of-the-art forecasting, we use a statistical model consisting of a variety of machine learning (ML) methods. For salinity data, we use satellite measurements of pre-storm sea surface salinity (SSS) as a proxy for the salinity stratification. We train and test the model on various ocean basins, including the Atlantic, eastern North Pacific and western North Pacific. A calibrator is trained on top of the ML models to correct and enhance probability forecasts. The calibrator significantly improves probability forecasts relative to recent works. The ML model performance is improved with the addition of SSS in the Eastern North Pacific, western North Pacific, and the Caribbean subregion of the North Atlantic, and the overall model performance is better than previous studies. SSS decreases model skill for a model trained on the full Atlantic basin. In the Indian Ocean, SSS is also notably correlated with RI occurrence, but the TC samples are not sufficient to train ML models.

hurricane↗

Predicting weather impacts on corn production in a data-limited region using a transfer learning approach

The stability of food supply and prices may depend more on annual changes in yields from year-to-year variability in weather than on longer-term average changes from changing climatic conditions. However, the absence of high-quality data on crop yields at fine spatial resolutions in many regions of the world makes it challenging to statistically model their response to interannual variability in weather patterns. Therefore, there is a need for empirical methods that can project annual crop yield changes even in limited data regions. Here, we propose a transfer learning algorithm that uses high spatial resolution data from one region to project yields in another region with more limited data. The goal of our work is to understand what data types can be beneficial for transferring learning from a source region to a very different target region with more limited data. We utilize Long Short-Term Memory to develop a transfer learning model that is trained on historical county-level corn yield in the United States and predicts district-level corn yield variations in India. Even using smaller amounts of data in India, simulating a data-scarce region, we achieve an average root mean square error of 0.48 bu acre−1 in predicting interannual yield variations. Using Shapley values to interpret results, we explore the contribution of the different weather parameters to interannual yield variability and find a larger influence of precipitation-related variables. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of this method for transferring models of weather impacts on crop yields trained on a data-rich country to one with more limited data. It suggests the potential of applying the transfer learning model to mitigate the need for extensive raw data globally.

Vishwakarma, Srishti [ORNL] (ORCID:000000031674419↗

Trade can buffer climate-induced risks and volatilities in crop supply

Climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of extreme events, posing challenges to food security. Corn, a staple crop for billions, is particularly vulnerable to heat stress, a primary driver of yield variability. While many studies have examined climate impact on average corn yields, little attention has been given to the climate impact on production volatility. This study investigates the future volatility and risks associated with global corn supply under climate change, evaluating the potential benefits of two key adaptation strategies: irrigation and market integration. A statistical model is employed to estimate corn yield response to heat stress and utilize NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 climate data to project future production volatility and risks of substantial yield losses. Three metrics are introduced to quantify these risks: Sigma (σ), the standard deviation of year-on-year yield change, which reflects overall yield volatility; Rho (ρ), the risk of substantial loss, defined as the probability of yield falling below a critical threshold; and Beta (β), a relative risk coefficient that captures the volatility of a region's corn production compared to the globally integrated market. The analysis reveals a concerning trend of increasing year-on-year yield volatility (σ) across most regions and climate models. This volatility increase is significant for key corn-producing regions like Brazil and the United States. While irrigated corn production exhibits a smaller rise in volatility, suggesting irrigation as a potential buffer against climate change impacts, it is not a sustainable option as it can cause groundwater depletion. On the other hand, global market integration reduces overall volatility and market risks significantly with less sustainability concerns. Furthermore, these findings highlight the importance of a multidimensional approach to adaptation in the food sector. While irrigation can benefit individual farmers, promoting global market integration offers a broader solution for fostering resilience and sustainability across the entire food system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

SAIGE-GPU: accelerating genome- and phenome-wide association studies using GPUs

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) at biobank scale are computationally intensive, especially for admixed populations requiring robust statistical models. SAIGE is a widely used method for generalized linear mixed-model GWAS but is limited by its CPU-based implementation, making phenome-wide association studies impractical for many research groups. We developed SAIGE-GPU, a GPU-accelerated version of SAIGE that replaces CPU-intensive matrix operations with GPU-optimized kernels. The core innovation is distributing genetic relationship matrix calculations across GPUs and communication layers. Applied to 2068 phenotypes from 635 969 participants in the Million Veteran Program, including diverse and admixed populations, SAIGE-GPU achieved a 5-fold speedup in mixed model fitting on supercomputing infrastructure and cloud platforms. We further optimized the variant association testing step through multi-core and multi-trait parallelization. Deployed on Google Cloud Platform and Azure, the method provided substantial cost and time savings. Source code and binaries are available for download at https://github.com/saigegit/SAIGE/tree/SAIGE-GPU-1.3.3. A code snapshot is archived at Zenodo for reproducibility (DOI: [10.5281/zenodo.17642591]). SAIGE-GPU is available in a containerized format for use across HPC and cloud environments and is implemented in R/C++ and runs on Linux systems.

Rodriguez, Alex [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)↗

En echelon faults reactivated by wastewater disposal near Musreau Lake, Alberta

We use machine-learning and cross-correlation techniques to enhance earthquake detectability by two magnitude units for the earthquake sequence near Musreau Lake, Alberta, which is induced by wastewater disposal. This deep catalogue reveals a series of en echelon ~N–S oriented strike-slip faults that are favourably oriented for reactivation. These faults require only ~0.6 MPa overpressure for triggering to occur. Earthquake activity occurs in bursts, or episodes; episodes restricted to the largest fault tend to have earthquakes starting near the southern end (distant from injectors) and progressing northwards (towards the injectors). While most events are concentrated along these ~N–S oriented faults, we also delineate smaller faults. Together, these findings suggest pore pressure as the triggering mechanism, where a time-dependent increase in pore pressure likely caused these faults to progressively reawaken. Analysis of the ‘next record-breaking event’, a statistical model that forecasts the sequencing of earthquake magnitudes, suggests that the next largest event would be M L ~4.3. The seismically illuminated length of the largest fault indicates potential magnitudes as large as M w 5.3.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

BRAKER3: Fully automated genome annotation using RNA-seq and protein evidence with GeneMark-ETP, AUGUSTUS, and TSEBRA

Gene prediction has remained an active area of bioinformatics research for a long time. Still, gene prediction in large eukaryotic genomes presents a challenge that must be addressed by new algorithms. The amount and significance of the evidence available from transcriptomes and proteomes vary across genomes, between genes, and even along a single gene. User-friendly and accurate annotation pipelines that can cope with such data heterogeneity are needed. The previously developed annotation pipelines BRAKER1 and BRAKER2 use RNA-seq or protein data, respectively, but not both. A further significant performance improvement integrating all three data types was made by the recently released GeneMark-ETP. We here present the BRAKER3 pipeline that builds on GeneMark-ETP and AUGUSTUS, and further improves accuracy using the TSEBRA combiner. BRAKER3 annotates protein-coding genes in eukaryotic genomes using both short-read RNA-seq and a large protein database, along with statistical models learned iteratively and specifically for the target genome. We benchmarked the new pipeline on genomes of 11 species under an assumed level of relatedness of the target species proteome to available proteomes. BRAKER3 outperforms BRAKER1 and BRAKER2. The average transcript-level F1-score is increased by about 20 percentage points on average, whereas the difference is most pronounced for species with large and complex genomes. BRAKER3 also outperforms other existing tools, MAKER2, Funannotate, and FINDER. The code of BRAKER3 is available on GitHub and as a ready-to-run Docker container for execution with Docker or Singularity. Overall, BRAKER3 is an accurate, easy-to-use tool for eukaryotic genome annotation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Production of neutron-rich heavy nuclei in deep-inelastic 208 Pb + 208 Pb collisions within the stochastic mean-field theory

In deep-inelastic collisions of heavy nuclei, reaction products with a wide range of mass and charge are produced. Such collisions been considered as a possible way to produce superheavy nuclei, as an alternative to fusion reactions. To provide reliable theoretical predictions, it is desired to develop microscopic approaches that correctly and accurately describe nucleon transfer processes in dissipative collisions of heavy nuclei. The purpose of the present work is (1) to investigate the mechanism of nucleon transfers in dissipative collisions of two heavy nuclei, and (2) to explore possible pathways to produce neutron-rich heavy nuclei, through detailed theoretical analyses of fluctuations and correlations in nucleon transfers in 208 Pb + 208 Pb reactions. Three-dimensional time-dependent Hartree-Fock (TDHF) calculations are performed for the collisions of 208 Pb + 208 Pb at 𝐸 c.m. = 832, 936, and 1040 MeV, using the Skyrme SLy4d energy density functional. To calculate fluctuations and correlations in nucleon transfers, we employ the stochastic mean-field (SMF) theory, and the results are compared with another theoretical framework currently available, the time-dependent random phase approximation (TDRPA). Primary and secondary production cross sections are calculated with the SMF theory combined with a statistical model, GEMINI ++ . Using information of nucleon flow across a neck of colliding nuclei in TDHF calculations, we solve quantal diffusion equations for fluctuations and correlations in nucleon transfers based on the SMF theory. From the SMF calculations, we obtain the time evolution of diffusion coefficients as well as fluctuations and correlations in nucleon transfers for a range of initial orbital angular momenta. We compare the results of the SMF calculations with those of TDRPA, showing that TDRPA tends to predict substantially larger fluctuations and correlations in strongly damped collisions of heavy nuclei, which exhibit complex initial angular momentum dependence, while the SMF results provide almost constant (stable) values. Using the obtained fluctuations and correlations, we calculate primary and secondary production cross sections for the 208 Pb + 208 Pb collisions. From the results, we find that both lighter and heavier reaction products as compared to 208 Pb are produced for a wide region in the 𝑁−𝑍 plane as primary products, thanks to the quantal diffusion mechanism in the dissipative collisions. However, we show that cross sections for production of heavy nuclei with 𝑍 ≳ 90 or 𝑁 ≳ 135 are washed out due to secondary particle evaporation and/or fission processes. On the other hand, we find that there remain sizable cross sections for production of neutron-rich nuclei along 𝑁 = 126 with 𝑍< 82, even after secondary disintegration processes. We demonstrate that the secondary production cross sections depend weakly on incident energies, but lower (higher) energy is slightly preferred for production of nuclei with smaller (larger) atomic numbers as compared to 𝑍 = 82. Here, based on the microscopic SMF calculations, it has been shown that deep-inelastic collisions of heavy nuclei, such as 208 Pb + 208 Pb examined in this study, can be a promising means to produce neutron-rich heavy nuclei along 𝑁=126. Discrepancies between the SMF and TDRPA approaches are left unsolved for future investigations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Strange hadron production in Au + Au collisions at s N N = 7.7 , 11.5, 19.6, 27, and 39 GeV

In this paper, we present STAR measurements of strange hadron (K$0\atop{s}$, Λ, $\bar{Λ}$, $Ξ$ - , $\bar{Ξ}$ + , Ω - , $\bar{Ω}$ + , and Φ ) production at mid-rapidity (|y|<0.5) in Au+Au collisions at √s NN = 7.7 – 39 GeV from the Beam Energy Scan Program at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). Transverse momentum spectra, averaged transverse mass, and the overall integrated yields of these strange hadrons are presented versus the centrality and collision energy. Antibaryon-to-baryon ratios(Λ/$\bar{Λ}$, $Ξ$ - / $\bar{Ξ}$ + , Ω - / $\bar{Ω}$ + ) are presented as well, and used to test a thermal statistical model and to extract the temperature normalized strangeness and baryon chemical potentials at hadronic freeze-out (μ B / T ch μ S / T ch ) in central collisions. Strange baryon-to-pion ratios are compared to various model predictions in central collisions for all energies. The nuclear modification factors (R CP ) and antibaryon-to-meson ratios as a function of transverse momentum are presented for all collision energies. The K$0\atop{s}$ R CP shows no suppression for p T up to 3.5 GeV/c at energies of 7.7 and 11.5 GeV. The $\bar{Λ}$/ K$0\atop{s}$ ratio also shows baryon-to-meson enhancement at intermediate p T (~2.5 GeV/c) in central collisions at energies above 19.6 GeV. In conclusion, both observations suggest that there is likely a change of the underlying strange quark dynamics at collision energies below 19.6 GeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Proton capture on 34 S in the astrophysical energy regime of O-Ne novae

Nuclear reaction sensitivity studies have shown that the final isotopic abundance of O-Ne nova nucleosynthesis is dependent on the 34 S(p,γ) 35 Cl reaction at astrophysical energies corresponding to peak nova burning temperatures of 0.1–0.4 GK. Isotopic ratios of the S, Cl, and Ar products are all used in various methods of cosmochemical analysis of presolar meteoritic grains. Due to the lack of direct experimental data, the 34 S+p reaction rate has been estimated using statistical modeling or information from indirect nucleon transfer experiments. In order to provide direct reaction information, here the resonance strengths of several low energy resonances, E c.m. = 272–495 keV, in the 34 S(p,γ) 35 Cl reaction were measured for the first time in inverse kinematics using the DRAGON recoil separator located at TRIUMF, Canada’s Particle Accelerator Centre in Vancouver.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗