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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Towards Scaling Law Analysis For Spatiotemporal Weather Data

Compute-optimal scaling laws are relatively well studied for NLP and CV, where objectives are typically single-step and targets are comparatively homogeneous. Weather forecasting is harder to characterize in the same framework: autoregressive rollouts compound errors over long horizons, outputs couple many physical channels with disparate scales and predictability, and globally pooled test metrics can disagree sharply with per-channel, late-lead behavior implied by short-horizon training. We extend neural scaling analysis for autoregressive weather forecasting from single-step training loss to long rollouts and per-channel metrics. We quantify (1) how prediction error is distributed across channels and how its growth rate evolves with forecast horizon, (2) if power law scaling holds for test error, relative to rollout length when error is pooled globally, and (3) how that fit varies jointly with horizon and channel for parameter, data, and compute-based scaling axes. We find strong cross-channel and cross-horizon heterogeneity: pooled scaling can look favorable while many channels degrade at late leads. We discuss implications for weighted objectives, horizon-aware curricula, and resource allocation across outputs.

Kiefer Jr, Alexander [ORNL] (ORCID:000000025398874↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transformer Neural Networks with Spatiotemporal Attention for Predictive Control and Optimization of Industrial Processes

In the context of real-time optimization and model predictive control of industrial systems, machine learning, and neural networks represent cutting-edge tools that hold promise for enhancing dynamic modeling. This work presents a novel transformer neural network architecture for real-time optimization and model predictive control. This network design includes a modified attention mechanism inspired by positional embedding attention from vision transformers and task-specific modifications to the input-output structure of the transformer’s decoder stack. Experiments were conducted using data from a 450 MW coal-fired power plant to evaluate this approach's effectiveness. The transformer neural network was compared with conventional recurrent models, including GRU and LSTM. The transformer exhibited a 6% increase in the R-squared (R2) value of predictions and an 83% reduction in mean squared error (MSE). Computation time was also reduced by 84% compared to conventional recurrent models.

Gallup, Ethan R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Single-cell and spatiotemporal transcriptomic profiling of brain immune infiltration following Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus infection

Neurotropic alphaviruses such as Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus (VEEV) are critical human pathogens that continually expand to naïve populations and for which there are no licensed vaccines or therapeutics. VEEV is highly infectious via the aerosol route and is a recognized weaponizable biothreat that causes neurological disease in humans. The neuropathology of VEEV has been attributed to an inflammatory immune response in the brain yet the underlying mechanisms and specific immune cell populations involved are not fully elucidated. This study uses single-cell RNA sequencing to produce a comprehensive transcriptional profile of immune cells isolated from the brain over a time course of infection in a mouse model of VEEV. Analyses reveal differentially activated subpopulations of microglia, including a distinct type I interferon-expressing subpopulation. This is followed by the sequential infiltration of myeloid cells and cytotoxic lymphocytes, also comprising subpopulations with unique transcriptional signatures. We identify a subpopulation of myeloid cells that form a distinct localization pattern in the hippocampal region whereas lymphocytes are widely distributed, indicating differential modes of recruitment, including that to specific regions of the brain. Altogether, this study provides a high-resolution analysis of the immune response to VEEV in the brain and highlights potential avenues of investigation for therapeutics that target neuroinflammation in the brain.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Autonomous thermal tracking reveals spatiotemporal patterns of seabird activity relevant to interactions with floating offshore wind facilities

Planning is underway for placement of infrastructure needed to begin offshore wind (OSW) energy generation along the West Coast of the United States and elsewhere in the Pacific Ocean. In contrast to the primarily nearshore windfarms currently in the North Atlantic, the seabird communities inhabiting Pacific Wind Energy Areas (WEAs) include significant populations of species that fly by dynamic soaring, a behavior dependent on wind and in which flight height increases steeply with wind speed. Therefore, a more precise and detailed assessment of their 3D airspace use is needed to better understand the potential collision risks that OSW turbines may present to these seabirds. Toward this end, a novel technology called the ThermalTracker-3D (TT3D), which uses thermal imaging and stereo vision, was developed to render high-resolution (on average within ±5 m) flight tracks and related behavior of seabirds. The technology was developed and deployed on a wind-profiling LiDAR buoy in the Humboldt WEA, located 34 to 57 km off California’s coast. During the at-sea deployment between 24 May and 13 August 2021, the TT3D successfully tracked birds moving between 10 and 500 m from the device, around the clock, and in all weather conditions; a total of 1407 detections and their corresponding 3D flight trajectories were recorded. Mean altitudes of detections ranged 6-295 m above sea level (asl). Considering the degree of overlap with anticipated rotor swept zones (RSZ), which extend 25-260 m asl, 79% of detected birds (per m 3 of airspace) moved below the RSZ, 21% moved at heights overlapping the RSZ, and another 0.04% occurred at heights exceeding the RSZ. The high-resolution tracks provided valuable insight into seabird space use, especially at heights that make them vulnerable to collision during various environmental conditions (e.g., darkness, strong winds). Observations made by the TT3D will be useful in filling critical knowledge gaps related to estimating collision and avoidance between seabirds and OSW facilities in the Pacific and elsewhere. Future research will focus on enhancing the TT3D’s identification capabilities to the lowest taxon through validation studies and artificial intelligence, further contributing to seabird conservation efforts associated with OSW.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatiotemporal analysis of 3D human iPSC-derived neural networks using a 3D multi-electrode array

While there is a growing appreciation of three-dimensional (3D) neural tissues (i.e., hydrogel-based, organoids, and spheroids), shown to improve cellular health and network activity to mirror brain-like activity in vivo , functional assessment using current electrophysiology techniques (e.g., planar multi-electrode arrays or patch clamp) has been technically challenging and limited to surface measurements at the bottom or top of the 3D tissue. As next-generation MEAs, specifically 3D MEAs, are being developed to increase the spatial precision across all three dimensions (X, Y, Z), development of improved computational analytical tools to discern region-specific changes within the Z dimension of the 3D tissue is needed. In the present study, we introduce a novel computational analytical pipeline to analyze 3D neural network activity recorded from a “bottom-up” 3D MEA integrated with a 3D hydrogel-based tissue containing human iPSC-derived neurons and primary astrocytes. Over a period of ~6.5 weeks, we describe the development and maturation of 3D neural activity (i.e., features of spiking and bursting activity) within cross sections of the 3D tissue, based on the vertical position of the electrode on the 3D MEA probe, in addition to network activity (identified using synchrony analysis) within and between cross sections. Then, using the sequential addition of postsynaptic receptor antagonists, bicuculline (BIC), 2-amino-5-phosphonovaleric acid (AP-5), and 6-cyano-5-nitroquinoxaline-2,3-dione (CNQX), we demonstrate that networks within and between cross sections of the 3D hydrogel-based tissue show a preference for GABA and/or glutamate synaptic transmission, suggesting differences in the network composition throughout the neural tissue. The ability to monitor the functional dynamics of the entire 3D reconstructed neural tissue is a critical bottleneck; here we demonstrate a computational pipeline that can be implemented in studies to better interpret network activity within an engineered 3D neural tissue and have a better understanding of the modeled organ tissue.

3D culture↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatiotemporal Variability in Wind Turbine Blade Leading Edge Erosion

Wind turbine blade leading edge erosion (LEE) reduces energy production and increases wind energy operation and maintenance costs. Degradation of the blade coating and ultimately damage to the underlying blade structure are caused by collisions of falling hydrometeors with rotating blades. The selection of optimal methods to mitigate/reduce LEE are critically dependent on the rates of coating fatigue accumulation at a given location and the time variance in the accumulation of material stresses. However, no such assessment currently exists for the United States of America (USA). To address this research gap, blade coating lifetimes at 883 sites across the USA are generated based on high-frequency (5-min) estimates of material fatigue derived using a mechanistic model and robust meteorological measurements. Results indicate blade coating failure at some sites in as few as 4 years, and that the frequency and intensity of material stresses are both highly episodic and spatially varying. Time series analyses indicate that up to one-third of blade coating lifetime is exhausted in just 360 5-min periods in the Southern Great Plains (SGP). Conversely, sites in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) exhibit the same level of coating lifetime depletion in over three times as many time periods. Thus, it may be more cost-effective to use wind turbine deregulation (erosion-safe mode) for damage reduction and blade lifetime extension in the SGP, while the application of blade leading edge protective measures may be more appropriate in the PNW. Annual total precipitation and mean wind speed are shown to be poor predictors of blade coating lifetime, re-emphasizing the need for detailed modeling studies such as that presented herein.

Pryor, Sara C. (ORCID:0000000348473440)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Large spatiotemporal variability in aerosol properties over central Argentina during the CACTI field campaign

Abstract. Few field campaigns with extensive aerosol measurements have been conducted over continental areas in the Southern Hemisphere. To address this data gap and better understand the interactions of convective clouds and the surrounding environment, extensive in situ and remote sensing measurements were collected during the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign conducted between October 2018 and April 2019 over the Sierras de Córdoba range of central Argentina. This study describes measurements of aerosol number, size, composition, mixing state, and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) collected on the ground and from a research aircraft during 7 weeks of the campaign. Large spatial and multiday variations in aerosol number, size, composition, and CCN were observed due to transport from upwind sources controlled by mesoscale to synoptic-scale meteorological conditions. Large vertical wind shears, back trajectories, single-particle measurements, and chemical transport model predictions indicate that different types of emissions and source regions, including biogenic emissions and biomass burning from the Amazon and anthropogenic emissions from Chile and eastern Argentina, contribute to aerosols observed during CACTI. Repeated aircraft measurements near the boundary layer top reveal strong spatial and temporal variations in CCN and demonstrate that understanding the complex co-variability of aerosol properties and clouds is critical to quantify the impact of aerosol–cloud interactions. In addition to quantifying aerosol properties in this data-sparse region, these measurements will be valuable to evaluate predictions over the midlatitudes of South America and improve parameterized aerosol processes in local, regional, and global models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Zooplankton International Geospatial (ZIG) dataset: A global repository of spatiotemporal freshwater zooplankton community composition data to support ecological research

Zooplankton play critical roles in aquatic ecosystem function and food webs. Nevertheless, global syntheses of their abundance and community dynamics are challenging due to methodological differences across monitoring programs, taxonomic inconsistencies, and a lack of standardized metadata. To reconcile these challenges, we assembled, curated, validated, and harmonized the Zooplankton International Geospatial (ZIG) dataset, which includes co-located and contemporaneous zooplankton, water chemistry, and limnological data from 307 lakes and reservoirs. ZIG includes waterbodies from each major lake thermal region and range in size from 0.8-2,805,8600 hectares. Temporal coverage for individual waterbodies ranges between 1-60 years of data (median = 4 years) with sampling from once annually to weekly. ZIG is publicly available and can be used to understand freshwater biodiversity change and its drivers at unprecedented scales, and we consider it to be a cornerstone for future investigations of freshwater biology, chemistry, and ecology.

Figary, Stephanie [Cornell University, Ithaca, NY]↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spatiotemporal Modeling of Real World Backsheets Field Survey Data: Hierarchical (Multilevel) Generalized Additive Models: Preprint

Assessing photovoltaic module backsheet durability is critical to increasing module lifetime. Lab based accelerating testing has recently failed to predict large scale failures of widely adopted polymeric materials. Field surveyed data is critical to assess the performance of component lifetime. Using a documented field survey protocol, 13 field surveys where conducted. Each measurement is encoded with it's spatial location in respect to the other modules. By combining field survey data on degradation predictors with real time satellite weather data, data-driven predictive models of backsheet degradation were trained. LOESS models were constructed to investigate the spatial dependence of measurements. It was found that micro-climatic effects like treelines, ground surface changes, and elevation changes effected the magnitude and variance of the measurements. A GAM model was created to predict the value of degradation based on measured predictors. The model includes variables on the climate of the system and the location of each measurement in the PV mounting structure. The model performed well with an adj:R2 of 0:95 for yellowness index prediction. The model was cross-validated using k-folds.

backsheet↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatiotemporal Super-Resolution with Generative Machine Learning for Creating Renewable Energy Resource Data Under Climate Change Scenarios

As we plan for a future with higher penetrations of renewables and increasing electrification, it becomes more important to understand how the electricity grid will operate under a variety of weather events. We must also consider that the weather our future grid will experience will be different and possibly more extreme than the historical weather that we have extensive data for. We can use data from global climate models (GCMs) to help understand how our climate may change over the next several decades, but there is often a significant gap between the low-resolution GCM data and the high-resolution weather data required to study power systems under specific weather events. Therefore, our objective in this work is to develop tools that can bridge this gap by using low-resolution GCM data to create realistic high-resolution weather datasets that can be used to study renewable energy generation and electricity demand. To accomplish this objective, we have developed a set of generative machine learning models that can rapidly downscale GCM daily average output data at an approximate grid resolution of 100km to hourly data at an approximate 4 km grid resolution. The models can be used to create high resolution data from nearly any GCM included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 5 or 6. Our methods include all datasets regularly used to study the integration of wind and solar power plants as well as changes in electricity demand due to heating and cooling loads. These models and datasets enable power systems modelers to study climate change-influenced weather events and their impact on the grid. We have downscaled and validated wind, solar, temperature, and humidity data with very promising results. The generative machine learning methods are computationally efficient and produce data that has similar statistical characteristics to current state-of-the-art historical datasets. We have trained initial generative models and produced an initial dataset collectively referred to as Sup3rCC: Super-Resolved Renewable Energy Resource Data with Climate Change Impacts. The data covers a (mostly) historical period from 2015-2025 and a future period from 2050-2059. We have also taken hypothetical high-electrification load data and scaled the heating and cooling loads with respect to the 2050-2059 high-resolution Sup3rCC meteorology. The results show how future levels of renewable energy generation and electrified load may be impacted by climate change, setting the stage for capacity expansion models to consider a dynamic climate through model years.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enhanced material shock using spatiotemporal laser pulse formatting

The present disclosure relates to a laser based system for laser peening a workpiece. The system has a pulse laser configured to generate laser pulses and a controller for controlling operation of the pulse laser. The controller is further configured to control the pulse laser to cause the pulse laser to generate at least one of the laser pulses with a spatio-temporally varying laser fluence over a duration of the at least one of the laser pulses.

Matthews, Manyalibo Joseph↗
DOE OSTI2023

21-Year Modeled Spatiotemporal Low-Level Jet Climatology Along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Coast

Offshore wind farms are influenced by a variety of meteorological phenomena, ranging in spatial and temporal extent. One of these phenomena, the low-level jet (LLJ), is defined as a local maximum in wind speed with height in the planetary boundary layer, exhibiting a "nose-like" structure usually in the lowest few hundred meters above the surface. This vertical extent of LLJs may coincide with the rotor-swept area of a wind turbine, thus having implications for potential power production and mechanical loading. Previous studies in this area based on observations have confirmed the prevalence of LLJs here, with implications on power generation, wind turbine loads, and wake recovery depending on the LLJ characteristics, such as nose height and what part of the wind turbine power curve is being impacted.

LLJ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spatiotemporal Structure in Intense THz Pulsed Beams

Optically generated terahertz radiation, with gigavolt per meter (GV/m) electric fields accessible in tabletop experiments, provides a promising source of accelerating gradients for future particle accelerator applications. Manipulation and characterization of radiation is essential for efficiently producing high fields and effectively delivering them to an accelerating structure or interaction region. The talk will cover a method of generating and characterizing high quality and structured terahertz pulsed laser beams for compact particle acceleration.

Hine, George↗