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At least 271 records · Page 15

Intraseasonal oscillations in the global atmosphere. II - Southern Hemisphere

A systematic examination of oscillatory modes in the global atmosphere is completed by studying 12 years of 500 mb geopotential heights in the Southern Hemisphere. The data were band-pass filtered to focus on intraseasonal (IS) phenomena, and spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) were obtained. The leading principal components were subjected to singular spectrum analysis in order to identify nonlinear IS oscillations with high statistical confidence. In the Southern Hemisphere, the dominant mode has a period of 23 days, with spatial patterns carried by the second and third winter EOF of the IS band. It has a zonal wavenumber-four structure. The 40-day mode is second, and is dominated by wavenumbers three and four, while a 16-day mode is too weak to separate its spatial behavior from the previous two. The IS dynamics in the Southern Hemisphere is more complex and dominated by shorter wavenumbers than the Northern Hemisphere. No statistically significant correlations between the Southern Hemisphere and the tropics or the Northern Hemisphere are apparent in the IS band.

Ghil, Michael↗

Fine-scale motion in the central Orion nebula

The inner region of M42 has been mapped in the O III N1 forbidden line at an unprecedented combination of velocity and spatial resolution and photometric accuracy. Three separate velocity systems along the line of sight are identified. Differential mass flow is present in two of these systems. All three systems show random fluctuations in velocity well above their measurement errors. The point-by-point velocities are used to determine the diagnostic statistical parameter, the structure function. The random motions show correlation with spatial separation, as expected for turbulence; but comparison with the predictions of classical theory for nebular turbulence shows poor agreement. If Kolmogorov (1941, 1942) theory applies, then the energy must be input at many scales.

Castaneda, Hector O.↗

Statistical Quality Control of Moisture Data in GEOS DAS

A new statistical quality control algorithm was recently implemented in the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). The final step in the algorithm consists of an adaptive buddy check that either accepts or rejects outlier observations based on a local statistical analysis of nearby data. A basic assumption in any such test is that the observed field is spatially coherent, in the sense that nearby data can be expected to confirm each other. However, the buddy check resulted in excessive rejection of moisture data, especially during the Northern Hemisphere summer. The analysis moisture variable in GEOS DAS is water vapor mixing ratio. Observational evidence shows that the distribution of mixing ratio errors is far from normal. Furthermore, spatial correlations among mixing ratio errors are highly anisotropic and difficult to identify. Both factors contribute to the poor performance of the statistical quality control algorithm. To alleviate the problem, we applied the buddy check to relative humidity data instead. This variable explicitly depends on temperature and therefore exhibits a much greater spatial coherence. As a result, reject rates of moisture data are much more reasonable and homogeneous in time and space.

Dee, D. P.↗

Path Profiles of Cn2 Derived from Radiometer Temperature Measurements and Geometrical Ray Tracing

Atmospheric turbulence has significant impairments on the operation of Free-Space Optical (FSO) communication systems, in particular temporal and spatial intensity fluctuations at the receiving aperture resulting in power surges and fades, changes in angle of arrival, spatial coherence degradation, etc. The refractive index structure parameter Cn2 is a statistical measure of the strength of turbulence in the atmosphere and is highly dependent upon vertical height. Therefore to understand atmospheric turbulence effects on vertical FSO communication links such as space-to-ground links, it is necessary to specify Cn2 profiles along the atmospheric propagation path. To avoid the limitations on the applicability of classical approaches, propagation simulation through geometrical ray tracing is applied. This is achieved by considering the atmosphere along the optical propagation path as a spatial distribution of spherical bubbles with varying relative refractive index deviations representing turbulent eddies. The relative deviations of the refractive index are statistically determined from altitude-dependent and time-varying temperature fluctuations, as measured by a microwave profiling radiometer. For each representative atmosphere ray paths are analyzed using geometrical optics, which is particularly advantageous in situations of strong turbulence where there is severe wavefront distortion and discontinuity. The refractive index structure parameter is then determined as a function of height and time.

Atmospheric turbulence↗

Estimated Accuracy of Three Common Trajectory Statistical Methods

Three well-known trajectory statistical methods (TSMs), namely concentration field (CF), concentration weighted trajectory (CWT), and potential source contribution function (PSCF) methods were tested using known sources and artificially generated data sets to determine the ability of TSMs to reproduce spatial distribution of the sources. In the works by other authors, the accuracy of the trajectory statistical methods was estimated for particular species and at specified receptor locations. We have obtained a more general statistical estimation of the accuracy of source reconstruction and have found optimum conditions to reconstruct source distributions of atmospheric trace substances. Only virtual pollutants of the primary type were considered. In real world experiments, TSMs are intended for application to a priori unknown sources. Therefore, the accuracy of TSMs has to be tested with all possible spatial distributions of sources. An ensemble of geographical distributions of virtual sources was generated. Spearman s rank order correlation coefficient between spatial distributions of the known virtual and the reconstructed sources was taken to be a quantitative measure of the accuracy. Statistical estimates of the mean correlation coefficient and a range of the most probable values of correlation coefficients were obtained. All the TSMs that were considered here showed similar close results. The maximum of the ratio of the mean correlation to the width of the correlation interval containing the most probable correlation values determines the optimum conditions for reconstruction. An optimal geographical domain roughly coincides with the area supplying most of the substance to the receptor. The optimal domain s size is dependent on the substance decay time. Under optimum reconstruction conditions, the mean correlation coefficients can reach 0.70 0.75. The boundaries of the interval with the most probable correlation values are 0.6 0.9 for the decay time of 240 h and 0.5 0.95 for the decay time of 12 h. The best results of source reconstruction can be expected for the trace substances with a decay time on the order of several days. Although the methods considered in this paper do not guarantee high accuracy they are computationally simple and fast. Using the TSMs in optimum conditions and taking into account the range of uncertainties, one can obtain a first hint on potential source areas.

Kabashnikov, Vitaliy P.↗

A stochastic precipitation disaggregation scheme for GCM applications

In the surface hydrologic parameterization of general circulation models (GCMs), it is commonly assumed that the precipitation processes are homogeneous over a GCM grid square and that the precipitation intensity is uniformly distributed. Based on evidence that the spatial distribution of precipitation within a GCM grid square is crucial for the land surface hydrology parameterization, a few researchers have explored the impacts of assuming that the precipitation is exponentially distributed. This paper explores the suitability of the aforementioned assumptions. First, a statistical analysis is conducted of historical precipitation data for three GCM grids in different regions of the United States. The analysis suggests that neither the uniform nor the exponential distribution assumption may be suitable at the GCM grid scale and, that instead, the spatial variability in precipitation is characterized by statistical patterns that are inhomogeneous. These patterns vary from grid to grid and are induced by the interaction between atmospheric conditions and various land surface characteristics, such as topographical features, surface properties, etc. Within the same grid square, however, the statistical patterns are generally constant from year to year. Based on this analysis, a computationally viable (i.e., usable with GCMs) stochastic precipitation disaggregation scheme that utilizes these stable statistical patterns is proposed. The method was used to generate spatially distributed hourly rainfall for a summer season in the southwestern region of the continental United States. Analysis of the results shows that the methodology preserves the seasonal characteristics of spatial variability in precipitation that is observed in the long-term historical data.

Gao, Xiaogang↗

Potential Multi-Component Structure of the Debris Disk Around HIP 17439 Revealed by Herschel DUNES

Context. The dust observed in debris disks is produced through collisions of larger bodies left over from the planet/planetesimal formation process. Spatially resolving these disks permits to constrain their architecture and thus that of the underlying planetary/planetesimal system. Aims. Our Herschel open time key program DUNES aims at detecting and characterizing debris disks around nearby, sun-like stars. In addition to the statistical analysis of the data, the detailed study of single objects through spatially resolving the disk and detailed modeling of the data is a main goal of the project. Methods. We obtained the first observations spatially resolving the debris disk around the sun-like star HIP 17439 (HD 23484) using the instruments PACS and SPIRE on board the Herschel Space Observatory. Simultaneous multi-wavelength modeling of these data together with ancillary data from the literature is presented. Results. A standard single component disk model fails to reproduce the major axis radial profiles at 70 μm, 100 μm, and 160 μm simultaneously. Moreover, the best-fit parameters derived from such a model suggest a very broad disk extending from few au up to few hundreds of au from the star with a nearly constant surface density which seems physically unlikely. However, the constraints from both the data and our limited theoretical investigation are not strong enough to completely rule out this model. An alternative, more plausible, and better fitting model of the system consists of two rings of dust at approx. 30 au and 90 au, respectively, while the constraints on the parameters of this model are weak due to its complexity and intrinsic degeneracies. Conclusions. The disk is probably composed of at least two components with different spatial locations (but not necessarily detached), while a single, broad disk is possible, but less likely. The two spatially well-separated rings of dust in our best-fit model suggest the presence of at least one high mass planet or several low-mass planets clearing the region between the two rings from planetesimals and dust.

sun-like stars↗

Comparison Of Downscaled CMIP5 Precipitation Datasets For Projecting Changes In Extreme Precipitation In The San Francisco Bay Area.

Water resource managers planning for the adaptation to future events of extreme precipitation now have access to high resolution downscaled daily projections derived from statistical bias correction and constructed analogs. We also show that along the Pacific Coast the Northern Oscillation Index (NOI) is a reliable predictor of storm likelihood, and therefore a predictor of seasonal precipitation totals and likelihood of extremely intense precipitation. Such time series can be used to project intensity duration curves into the future or input into stormwater models. However, few climate projection studies have explored the impact of the type of downscaling method used on the range and uncertainty of predictions for local flood protection studies. Here we present a study of the future climate flood risk at NASA Ames Research Center, located in South Bay Area, by comparing the range of predictions in extreme precipitation events calculated from three sets of time series downscaled from CMIP5 data: 1) the Bias Correction Constructed Analogs method dataset downscaled to a 1/8 degree grid (12km); 2) the Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation method downscaled to a 1km grid; 3) a statistical model of extreme daily precipitation events and projected NOI from CMIP5 models. In addition, predicted years of extreme precipitation are used to estimate the risk of overtopping of the retention pond located on the site through simulations of the EPA SWMM hydrologic model. Preliminary results indicate that the intensity of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase and flood the NASA Ames retention pond. The results from these estimations will assist flood protection managers in planning for infrastructure adaptations.

Storm↗

A statistical analysis of mesoscale rainfall as a random cascade

The paper considers the random cascade theory for spatial rainfall. Particular attention was given to the following four areas: (1) the relationship of the random cascade theory of rainfall to the simple scaling and the hierarchical cluster-point-process theories, (2) the mathematical foundations for some of the formalisms commonly applied in the develpment of statistical cascade theory, (3) the empirical evidence for a random cascade theory of rainfall, and (4) the way of using data for making estimates of parameters and for making statistical inference within this theoretical framework. An analysis of space-time rainfall data is presented. Cascade simulations are carried out to provide a comparison with methods of analysis that are applied to the rainfall data.

Gupta, Vijay K.↗

The influence of processor focus on speckle correlation statistics for a Shuttle imaging radar scene of Hurricane Josephine

The surface wave field produced by Hurricane Josephine was imaged by the L-band SAR aboard the Challenger on October 12, 1984. Exponential trends found in the two-dimensional autocorrelations of speckled image data support an equilibrium theory model of sea surface hydrodynamics. The notions of correlated specular reflection, surface coherence, optimal Doppler parameterization and spatial resolution are discussed within the context of a Poisson-Rayleigh statistical model of the SAR imaging process.

Tilley, David G.↗

Lightning properties in Florida thunderstorms from video tape records

From video-tape recordings of lightning flashes to ground in convective daytime storms at the NASA Kennedy Space Center, Florida, and near Ocala, Florida, statistical data are presented for the flash-time duration, the number of strokes per flash, the time between all strokes, and the time between strokes having spatially separate channels. A daytime video tape 'photograph' of a stepped leader is reproduced. Finally, statistical data are presented for 13 long horizontal lightning discharges occurring along a line of nocturnal thunderstorms near Gainesville, Florida. These discharges all propagated horizontally near the freezing level (4.5 km) at an apparent average velocity between 5600 and 11,000 m/s for a typical distance of 2 to 3 km. Eleven of the 13 horizontal discharges were preceded by or occurred within 16.7 ms of a glow in the cloud roughly 0.5 km above the horizontal channel.

Brantley, R. D.↗

A computationally efficient statistically downscaled 100 m resolution Greenland product from the regional climate model MAR

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been contributing directly to sea level rise, and this contribution is projected to accelerate over the next decades. A crucial tool for studying the evolution of surface mass loss (e.g., surface mass balance, SMB) consists of regional climate models (RCMs), which can provide current estimates and future projections of sea level rise associated with such losses. However, one of the main limitations of RCMs is the relatively coarse horizontal spatial resolution at which outputs are currently generated. Here, we report results concerning the statistical downscaling of the SMB modeled by the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) RCM from the original spatial resolution of 6 km to 100 m building on the relationship between elevation and mass losses in Greenland. To this goal, we developed a geospatial framework that allows the parallelization of the downscaling process, a crucial aspect to increase the computational efficiency of the algorithm. Using the results obtained in the case of the SMB, surface and air temperature are assessed through the comparison of the modeled outputs with in situ and satellite measurement. The downscaled products show a considerable improvement in the case of the downscaled product with respect to the original coarse output, with the coefficient of determination (R 2 ) increasing from 0.868 for the original MAR output to 0.935 for the SMB downscaled product. Moreover, the value of the slope and intercept of the linear regression fitting modeled and measured SMB values shifts from 0.865 for the original MAR to 1.015 for the downscaled product in the case of the slope and from the value −235 mm w.e. yr -1 (original) to −57 mm w.e. yr -1 (downscaled) in the case of the intercept, considerably improving upon results previously published in the literature.

Greenland Ice Sheet↗

Statistical Ensemble of Large Eddy Simulations

A statistical ensemble of large eddy simulations (LES) is run simultaneously for the same flow. The information provided by the different large scale velocity fields is used to propose an ensemble averaged version of the dynamic model. This produces local model parameters that only depend on the statistical properties of the flow. An important property of the ensemble averaged dynamic procedure is that it does not require any spatial averaging and can thus be used in fully inhomogeneous flows. Also, the ensemble of LES's provides statistics of the large scale velocity that can be used for building new models for the subgrid-scale stress tensor. The ensemble averaged dynamic procedure has been implemented with various models for three flows: decaying isotropic turbulence, forced isotropic turbulence, and the time developing plane wake. It is found that the results are almost independent of the number of LES's in the statistical ensemble provided that the ensemble contains at least 16 realizations.

Carati, Daniele↗

Urban Image Classification: Per-Pixel Classifiers, Sub-Pixel Analysis, Object-Based Image Analysis, and Geospatial Methods: Chapter - 10

Remote sensing methods used to generate base maps to analyze the urban environment rely predominantly on digital sensor data from space-borne platforms. This is due in part from new sources of high spatial resolution data covering the globe, a variety of multispectral and multitemporal sources, sophisticated statistical and geospatial methods, and compatibility with GIS data sources and methods. The goal of this chapter is to review the four groups of classification methods for digital sensor data from space-borne platforms; per-pixel, sub-pixel, object-based (spatial-based), and geospatial methods. Per-pixel methods are widely used methods that classify pixels into distinct categories based solely on the spectral and ancillary information within that pixel. They are used for simple calculations of environmental indices (e.g., NDVI) to sophisticated expert systems to assign urban land covers. Researchers recognize however, that even with the smallest pixel size the spectral information within a pixel is really a combination of multiple urban surfaces. Sub-pixel classification methods therefore aim to statistically quantify the mixture of surfaces to improve overall classification accuracy. While within pixel variations exist, there is also significant evidence that groups of nearby pixels have similar spectral information and therefore belong to the same classification category. Object-oriented methods have emerged that group pixels prior to classification based on spectral similarity and spatial proximity. Classification accuracy using object-based methods show significant success and promise for numerous urban 3 applications. Like the object-oriented methods that recognize the importance of spatial proximity, geospatial methods for urban mapping also utilize neighboring pixels in the classification process. The primary difference though is that geostatistical methods (e.g., spatial autocorrelation methods) are utilized during both the pre- and post-classification steps. Within this chapter, each of the four approaches is described in terms of scale and accuracy classifying urban land use and urban land cover; and for its range of urban applications. We demonstrate the overview of four main classification groups in Figure 1 while Table 1 details the approaches with respect to classification requirements and procedures (e.g., reflectance conversion, steps before training sample selection, training samples, spatial approaches commonly used, classifiers, primary inputs for classification, output structures, number of output layers, and accuracy assessment). The chapter concludes with a brief summary of the methods reviewed and the challenges that remain in developing new classification methods for improving the efficiency and accuracy of mapping urban areas.

Myint, Soe W.↗

Electron precipitation patterns and substorm morphology.

Statistical analysis of data from the auroral particles experiment aboard OGO 4, performed in a statistical framework interpretable in terms of magnetospheric substorm morphology, both spatial and temporal. Patterns of low-energy electron precipitation observed by polar satellites are examined as functions of substorm phase. The implications of the precipitation boundaries identifiable at the low-latitude edge of polar cusp electron precipitation and at the poleward edge of precipitation in the premidnight sector are discussed.

Hoffman, R. A.↗

Evaluation of SLAR and simulated thematic mapper MSS data for forest cover mapping using computer-aided analysis techniques

Kershaw County, South Carolina was selected as the study site for analyzing simulated thematic mapper MSS data and dual-polarized X-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data. The impact of the improved spatial and spectral characteristics of the LANDSAT D thematic mapper data on computer aided analysis for forest cover type mapping was examined as well as the value of synthetic aperture radar data for differentiating forest and other cover types. The utility of pattern recognition techniques for analyzing SAR data was assessed. Topics covered include: (1) collection and of TMS and reference data; (2) reformatting, geometric and radiometric rectification, and spatial resolution degradation of TMS data; (3) development of training statistics and test data sets; (4) evaluation of different numbers and combinations of wavelength bands on classification performance; (5) comparison among three classification algorithms; and (6) the effectiveness of the principal component transformation in data analysis. The collection, digitization, reformatting, and geometric adjustment of SAR data are also discussed. Image interpretation results and classification results are presented.

Hoffer, R. M.↗

LANDSAT 4 investigations of Thematic Mapper and multispectral scanner applications

The optimum index factor package was used to choose TM band for color compositing. Processing techniques were also used on TM data over several sites to: (1) reduce the amount of data that needs to be processed and analyzed by using statistical methods or by combining full-resolution products with spatially compressed products; (2) digitally process small subareas to improve the visual appearance of large-scale products or to merge different-resolution image data; and (3) evaluate and compare the information content of the different three-band combinations that can be made using the TM data. Results indicate that for some applications the added spectral information over MSS is even more important than the TM's increased spatial resolution.

Lauer, D. T.↗