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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Gravitational wave propagation beyond general relativity: waveform distortions and echoes

We study the cosmological propagation of gravitational waves (GWs) beyond general relativity (GR) across homogeneous and isotropic backgrounds. We consider scenarios in which GWs interact with an additional tensor field and use a parametrized phenomenological approach that generically describes their coupled equations of motion. We analyze four distinct classes of derivative and non-derivative interactions: mass, friction, velocity, and chiral. We apply the WKB formalism to account for the cosmological evolution and obtain analytical solutions to these equations. We corroborate these results by analyzing numerically the propagation of a toy GW signal. We then proceed to use the analytical results to study the modified propagation of realistic GWs from merging compact binaries, assuming that the GW signal emitted is the same as in GR. We generically find that tensor interactions lead to copies of the originally emitted GW signal, each one with its own possibly modified dispersion relation. These copies can travel coherently and interfere with each other leading to a scrambled GW signal, or propagate decoherently and lead to echoes arriving at different times at the observer that could be misidentified as independent GW events. Depending on the type of tensor interaction, the detected GW signal may exhibit amplitude and phase distortions with respect to a GW waveform in GR, as well as birefringence effects. Furthermore, we discuss observational probes of these tensor interactions with both individual GW events, as well as population studies for both ground- and space-based detectors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Exploring suppressed long-distance correlations as the cause of suppressed large-angle correlations

ABSTRACT The absence of large-angle correlations in the map of cosmic microwave background temperature fluctuations is among the well-established anomalies identified in full-sky and cut-sky maps over the past three decades. Suppressed large-angle correlations are rare statistical flukes in standard inflationary cosmological models. One natural explanation could be that the underlying primordial density perturbations lack correlations on large distance scales. To test this idea, we replace Fourier modes by a wavelet basis with compact spatial support. While the angular correlation function of perturbations can readily be suppressed, the observed monopole- and dipole-subtracted correlation function is not generally suppressed. This suggests that suppression of large-angle temperature correlations requires a mechanism that has both real-space and harmonic-space effects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document For PreMevE 2.0 Model

Man-made satellites operating in medium- and high-altitude Earth orbits are continuously exposed to hazardous space radiation originated from different sources. Among them, one major contributor is the relativistic electron population—with kinetic energies comparable to or larger than their rest energy of 0.511 Megaelectron-volt (MeV)—trapped inside Earth’s outer Van Allen belt. Owing to their high penetration capability, these MeV electrons are difficult to be fully stopped by normal shielding. Particularly, during MeV electron events when electron intensities across the outer belt are greatly elevated to sustaining high levels—up to 10 3 - 10 4 times as observed in the geosynchronous (GEO) orbit and low-Earth-orbits (LEOs), space-borne electronic systems with inadequate hardening are susceptible to deep-dielectric charging and discharging phenomenon caused by those electrons, and thus may suffer severe damages or even stop functioning. Therefore, protecting critical space infrastructures from harsh space weather conditions– including MeV electron events – has high priority for many space sectors, such as the aerospace industry, service providers and government agencies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Radio Frequency Transients Correlated with Electron Flux Measured On-Board the STP-Sat6

We analyzed transient electromagnetic signatures, referred to as spacecraft environment discharges (SEDs) or on-board discharges (OBDs), and the in-situ particle environment simultaneously measured by the Radio Frequency Sensor (RFS) and the Space and Atmospheric Burst Reporting System Z-plasma spectrometer (SABRS-ZPS), respectively. These sensors are on-board the U.S. Department of Defense Space Test Program Satellite 6 (STP-Sat6) in geostationary orbit. Radio frequency signatures of SEDs on STP-Sat6 have relatively high peak amplitudes; they often caused amplitude-saturation in the so-called high band (120–140 MHz frequency range) of the RFS likely due to the proximity of their source to the RFS’s dipole antennas. We examined the occurrence rate of SEDs reported by the RFS and its temporal relationship to electron flux in the 7.9–12.2 keV range. Peaks in SED count rates were time-correlated with peaks in electron flux. The electron-flux peaks appeared to lead the SED count rate peaks by 24–45 min for the 7.9–12.2 keV energies. This indicates that incidence of electrons at this relatively low-energy range likely resulted in ramping up of the charging of the spacecraft leading to periods of high occurrence rates of discharges in and around the spacecraft.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Updated Parameters and a New Transmission Spectrum of HD 97658b

Recent years have seen increasing interest in the characterization of sub-Neptune-sized planets because of their prevalence in the Galaxy, contrasted with their absence in our solar system. HD 97658 is one of the brightest stars hosting a planet of this kind, and we present the transmission spectrum of this planet by combining four Hubble Space Telescope transits, 12 Spitzer/IRAC transits, and eight MOST transits of this system. Our transmission spectrum has a higher signal-to-noise ratio than those from previous works, and the result suggests that the slight increase in transit depth from wavelength 1.1–1.7 μm reported in previous works on the transmission spectrum of this planet is likely systematic. Nonetheless, our atmospheric modeling results are inconclusive, as no model provides an excellent match to our data. Nonetheless, we find that atmospheres with high C/O ratios (C/O ≳ 0.8) and metallicities of ≳100× solar metallicity are favored. We combine the mid-transit times from all of the new Spitzer and MOST observations and obtain an updated orbital period of P = 9.489295 ± 0.000005, with a best-fit transit time center at T {sub 0} = 2456361.80690 ± 0.00038 (BJD). No transit timing variations are found in this system. We also present new measurements of the stellar rotation period (34 ± 2 days) and stellar activity cycle (9.6 yr) of the host star HD 97658. Finally, we calculate and rank the Transmission Spectroscopy Metric of all confirmed planets cooler than 1000 K and with sizes between 1 R {sub ⊕} and 4 R {sub ⊕}. We find that at least a third of small planets cooler than 1000 K can be well characterized using James Webb Space Telescope, and of those, HD 97658b is ranked fifth, meaning that it remains a high-priority target for atmospheric characterization.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

First Time-Resolved Leader Spectra Associated With a Downward Terrestrial Gamma-Ray Flash Detected at the Telescope Array Surface Detector

Optical emissions associated with Terrestrial Gamma ray Flashes (TGFs) have recently become important subjects in space-based and ground-based observations as they can help us understand how TGFs are produced during thunderstorms. In this paper, we present the first time-resolved leader spectra of the optical component associated with a downward TGF. The TGF was observed by the Telescope Array Surface Detector (TASD) simultaneously with other lightning detectors, including a Lightning Mapping Array (LMA), an INTerFerometer (INTF), a Fast Antenna (FA), and a spectroscopic system. The spectroscopic system recorded leader spectra at 29,900 frames per second (33.44 μs time resolution), covering a spectral range from 400 to 900 nm, with 2.1 nm per pixel. The recordings of the leader spectra began 11.7 ms before the -18 kA return stroke and at a height of 2.37 km above the ground. These spectra reveal that optical emissions of singly ionized nitrogen and oxygen occur between 167 μs before and 267 μs after the TGF detection, while optical emissions of neutrals (H I, 656 nm; N I, 744 nm, and O I, 777 nm) occur right at the moment of the detection. The time-dependent spectra reveal differences in the optical emissions of lightning leaders with and without downward TGFs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spitzer Variability Properties of Low-gravity L Dwarfs

We present Spitzer Space Telescope variability monitoring observations of three low-gravity L dwarfs with previous detections of variability in the near-IR: 2MASS J0045+16, 2MASS J0501–00, and 2MASS J1425–36. We detect significant periodic variability in two of our targets, 2MASS J0045+16 and 2MASS J0501–00. We do not detect variability in 2MASS J1425–36. Combining our new rotation periods with rotational velocities, we calculate inclination angles of 22° ± 1°, 60{sub -8}{sup +13°}, and 52{sub -13}{sup +19°} for 2MASS J0045+16, 2MASS J0501–00, and 2MASS J1425–36, respectively. Our three new objects are consistent with the tentative relations between inclination, amplitude, and color anomaly previously reported. Objects with the highest variability amplitudes are inclined equator on, while the maximum observed amplitude decreases as the inclination angle decreases. We also find a correlation between the inclination angle and (J–K){sub 2MASS} color anomaly for the sample of objects with measured inclinations. Compiling the entire sample of brown dwarfs with Spitzer variability detections, we find no enhancement in amplitude for young, early-L dwarfs compared to the field dwarf population. We find a possible enhancement in amplitude of low-gravity late-L dwarfs at 4.5 μm. We do not find a correlation between amplitude ratio and spectral type for field dwarfs or for the young population. Finally, we compile the rotation periods of a large sample of brown dwarfs with ages 1 Myr–1 Gyr and compare the rotation rates predicted by evolutionary models assuming angular momentum conservation. We find that the rotation rates of the current sample of brown dwarfs fall within the expected range set by evolutionary models and breakup limits.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Refining the Census of the Upper Scorpius Association with Gaia

We have refined the census of stars and brown dwarfs in the Upper Sco association (∼10 Myr, ∼145 pc) by (1) updating the selection of candidate members from our previous survey to include the high-precision astrometry from the second data release of Gaia, (2) obtaining spectra of a few hundred candidate members to measure their spectral types and verify their youth, and (3) assessing the membership (largely with Gaia astrometry) of 2020 stars toward Upper Sco that show evidence of youth in this work and previous studies. We arrive at a catalog of 1761 objects that are adopted as members of Upper Sco. The distribution of spectral types among the adopted members is similar to those in other nearby star-forming regions, indicating a similar initial mass function. In previous studies, we have compiled mid-infrared photometry from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer and the Spitzer Space Telescope for members of Upper Sco and used those data to identify the stars that show evidence of circumstellar disks; we present the same analysis for our new catalog of members. As in earlier work, we find that the fraction of members with disks increases with lower stellar masses, ranging from ≲10% for >1 M {sub ⊙} to ∼22% for 0.01–0.3 M {sub ⊙}. Finally, we have estimated the relative ages of Upper Sco and other young associations using their sequences of low-mass stars in M{sub G{sub R{sub P}}} versus G {sub BP} − G {sub RP}. This comparison indicates that Upper Sco is a factor of two younger than the β Pic association (21–24 Myr) according to both nonmagnetic and magnetic evolutionary models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Candidate Brown-dwarf Microlensing Events with Very Short Timescales and Small Angular Einstein Radii

Short-timescale microlensing events are likely to be produced by substellar brown dwarfs (BDs), but it is difficult to securely identify BD lenses based on only event timescales t{sub E} because short-timescale events can also be produced by stellar lenses with high relative lens-source proper motions. In this paper, we report three strong candidate BD-lens events found from the search for lensing events not only with short timescales (t{sub E}≲6 days) but also with very small angular Einstein radii (θ{sub E}≲0.05 mas) among the events that have been found in the 2016–2019 observing seasons. These events include MOA-2017-BLG-147, MOA-2017-BLG-241, and MOA-2019-BLG-256, in which the first two events are produced by single lenses and the last event is produced by a binary lens. From the Monte Carlo simulations of Galactic events conducted with the combined t{sub E} and θ{sub E} constraint, it is estimated that the lens masses of the individual events are 0.051{sub −0.027}{sup +0.100} M{sub ⊙}, 0.044{sub −0.023}{sup +0.090} M{sub ⊙}, and 0.046{sub −0.023}{sup +0.067} M{sub ⊙}/0.038{sub −0.019}{sup +0.056} M{sub ⊙} and the probability of the lens mass smaller than the lower limit of stars is ∼80% for all events. We point out that routine lens mass measurements of short-timescale lensing events require survey-mode space-based observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Warped and Hooked: Mapping the Magellanic Clouds in Three Dimensions Using Red Clump Stars

The Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) and Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) are the Milky Way’s nearest interacting galaxy pair, offering a unique laboratory for studying tidal effects on galactic disks. Despite extensive survey efforts, the 3D geometry of the Magellanic Clouds, particularly the putative warp of the LMC, remains poorly constrained due to incompleteness in their crowded centers and the low stellar density of their peripheries, which demand wide-field coverage. Using red clump (RC) stars as standard candles, corrected for age- and metallicity-dependent population effects with empirically calibrated color–magnitude relations and spatially resolved star formation histories, we construct the most detailed distance map of the Magellanic system to date. Based on ∼2.3 million RC stars from Gaia Data Release 3 combined with modern reddening maps, we measure median heliocentric distances of 50.62 ± 2.32 kpc for the LMC (to ∼23°) and 60.75 ± 2.85 kpc for the SMC (to ∼12°). The maps reveal substructures including the LMC Northern Arm, southern hooks, the Magellanic Bridge, and SMC peripheral overdensities, with refreshed distance estimates. Fitting the LMC disk within 7° yields a global inclination of $i=25\mathop{.}\limits^{^\circ }32\pm 0\mathop{.}\limits^{^\circ }10$ and a line-of-nodes position angle of $\theta = 142\mathop{.}\limits^{^\circ }34\pm 0\mathop{.}\limits^{^\circ }21$. Most strikingly, we find the LMC periphery is warped azimuthally into a U-shaped structure reaching a vertical amplitude of ∼7 kpc at a radius of ∼15 kpc. In future work, we will perform detailed comparisons with live N-body simulations to assess possible formation scenarios for the LMC warp.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

NASA’s Pandora SmallSat Mission: Simulated Modeling and Retrieval of Near-infrared Exoplanet Transmission Spectra

Pandora is a SmallSat mission dedicated to understanding exoplanets and their host stars by disentangling the impact of stellar heterogeneity on exoplanet transmission spectra. Selected as a NASA Astrophysics Pioneers mission in 2021, Pandora will provide simultaneous long-term visible photometric monitoring (0.4–0.7 μm) and low-resolution near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy (0.9–1.6 μm) of transiting systems for the purposes of monitoring host star variability and characterizing exoplanetary atmospheres. Pandora’s year-long prime mission from 2026 to 2027 coincides with the middle of a decade defined by targeted efforts for atmospheric characterization of exoplanets, offering a key opportunity to leverage this new resource to maximize science with JWST and other observatories. Here we investigate Pandora’s anticipated performance for the general exoplanet population accessible to transit spectroscopy, from hot Jupiters to temperate sub-Neptunes. By modeling the atmospheres of five test cases broadly consistent with the bulk properties of HD 209458b, HD 189733b, WASP-80 b, HAT-P-18 b, and K2-18 b, we find that Pandora may provide abundance constraints as precise as ∼1.0 dex for main atmospheric absorbers such as H 2 O and CH 4 . Then, we explore the synergies between Pandora and JWST. Our results suggest that targets with JWST data in the NIR can benefit from the addition of Pandora observations and result in more reliable abundance estimates than with JWST data alone. Moreover, Pandora can serve the community by providing precursory observations of targets of interest for JWST atmospheric characterization. We conclude by outlining strategies for the use of Pandora as a standalone observatory and in synergy with JWST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

TESS Hunt for Young and Maturing Exoplanets (THYME). V. A Sub-Neptune Transiting a Young Star in a Newly Discovered 250 Myr Association

The detection and characterization of young planetary systems offer a direct path to study the processes that shape planet evolution. We report on the discovery of a sub-Neptune-sized planet orbiting the young star HD 110082 (TOI-1098). Transit events we initially detected during TESS Cycle 1 are validated with time-series photometry from Spitzer. High-contrast imaging and high-resolution, optical spectra are also obtained to characterize the stellar host and confirm the planetary nature of the transits. The host star is a late-F dwarf (M {sub ⋆} = 1.2M {sub ⊙}) with a low-mass, M dwarf binary companion (M {sub ⋆} = 0.26M {sub ⊙}) separated by nearly one arcminute (∼6200 au). Based on its rapid rotation and Lithium absorption, HD 110082 is young, but is not a member of any known group of young stars (despite proximity to the Octans association). To measure the age of the system, we search for coeval, phase-space neighbors and compile a sample of candidate siblings to compare with the empirical sequences of young clusters and to apply quantitative age-dating techniques. In doing so, we find that HD 110082 resides in a new young stellar association we designate MELANGE-1, with an age of 250{sub −70}{sup +50} Myr. Jointly modeling the TESS and Spitzer light curves, we measure a planetary orbital period of 10.1827 days and radius of R {sub p} = 3.2 ± 0.1R {sub ⊕}. HD 110082 b’s radius falls in the largest 12% of field-age systems with similar host-star mass and orbital period. This finding supports previous studies indicating that young planets have larger radii than their field-age counterparts.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

ACCESS: Confirmation of No Potassium in the Atmosphere of WASP-31b

We present a new optical (400–950 nm) transmission spectrum of the hot Jupiter WASP-31b (M = 0.48 M {sub J}; R = 1.54 R {sub J}; P = 3.41 days), obtained by combining four transit observations. These transits were observed with IMACS on the Magellan Baade Telescope at Las Campanas Observatory as part of the ACCESS project. We investigate the presence of clouds/hazes in the upper atmosphere of this planet, as well as the contribution of stellar activity on the observed features. In addition, we search for absorption features of the alkali elements Na i and K i, with particular focus on K i, for which there have been two previously published disagreeing results. Observations with Hubble Space Telescope (HST)/STIS detected K i, whereas ground-based low- and high-resolution observations did not. We use equilibrium and nonequilibrium chemistry retrievals to explore the planetary and stellar parameter space of the system with our optical data combined with existing near-IR observations. Our best-fit model is that with a scattering slope consistent with a Rayleigh slope (α=5.3{sub −3.1}{sup +2.9}), high-altitude clouds at a log cloud top pressure of −3.6{sub −2.1}{sup +2.7} bars, and possible muted H{sub 2}O features. We find that our observations support other ground-based claims of no K i. Clouds are likely why signals like H{sub 2}O are extremely muted and Na or K cannot be detected. We then juxtapose our Magellan/IMACS transmission spectrum with existing VLT/FORS2, HST/WFC3, HST/STIS, and Spitzer observations to further constrain the optical-to-infrared atmospheric features of the planet. We find that a steeper scattering slope (α = 8.3 ± 1.5) is anchored by STIS wavelengths blueward of 400 nm and only the original STIS observations show significant potassium signal.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Pair of TESS Planets Spanning the Radius Valley around the Nearby Mid-M Dwarf LTT 3780

We present the confirmation of two new planets transiting the nearby mid-M dwarf LTT 3780 (TIC 36724087, TOI-732, V = 13.07, K {sub s} = 8.204, R {sub s} = 0.374 R {sub ⊙}, M {sub s} = 0.401 M {sub ⊙}, d = 22 pc). The two planet candidates are identified in a single Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite sector and validated with reconnaissance spectroscopy, ground-based photometric follow-up, and high-resolution imaging. With measured orbital periods of P {sub b} = 0.77, P {sub c} = 12.25 days and sizes r {sub p,b} = 1.33 ± 0.07, r {sub p,c} = 2.30 ± 0.16 R {sub ⊕}, the two planets span the radius valley in period–radius space around low-mass stars, thus making the system a laboratory to test competing theories of the emergence of the radius valley in that stellar mass regime. By combining 63 precise radial velocity measurements from the High Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher (HARPS) and HARPS-N, we measure planet masses of m{sub p,b}=2.62{sub −0.46}{sup +0.48} and m{sub p,c}=8.6{sub −1.3}{sup +1.6} M {sub ⊕}, which indicates that LTT 3780b has a bulk composition consistent with being Earth-like, while LTT 3780c likely hosts an extended H/He envelope. We show that the recovered planetary masses are consistent with predictions from both photoevaporation and core-powered mass-loss models. The brightness and small size of LTT 3780, along with the measured planetary parameters, render LTT 3780b and c as accessible targets for atmospheric characterization of planets within the same planetary system and spanning the radius valley.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A technical analog of the cosmological constant problem and a solution thereof

The near vanishing of the cosmological constant is one of the most puzzling open problems in theoretical physics. We consider a system, the so-called framid, that features a technically similar problem. Its stress-energy tensor has a Lorentz-invariant expectation value on the ground state, yet there are no standard, symmetry-based selection rules enforcing this, since the ground state spontaneously breaks boosts. We verify the Lorentz invariance of the expectation value in question with explicit one-loop computations. These, however, yield the expected result only thanks to highly nontrivial cancellations, which are quite mysterious from the low-energy effective theory viewpoint.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Interstellar Mapping And Acceleration Probe High Energy (IMAP-Hi) Neutral Atom Imager

The IMAP-Hi Energetic Neutral Atom (ENA) Imager on NASA’s Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe (IMAP) mission (McComas et al. 2018a, 2025) is designed to measure ENAs from the global interaction between the heliosphere and the local interstellar medium (LISM). These ENAs are initially plasma ions of solar wind origin that are neutralized by charge exchange with the cold neutral atoms of LISM that freely flow through the heliosphere-LISM interaction region. IMAP-Hi consists of two identical single-pixel sensors, each covering the ENA spectral range from 0.44 keV to 15.6 keV over nine contiguous energy passbands and having an approximately conical field-of-view (FOV) of 4.1o full width at half maximum (FWHM). The Hi-45 sensor points 45o relative to the spacecraft spin axis from the antisunward direction; each spacecraft spin, it measures ENA intensity over a circular swath with half-cone angle 45o centered on the ecliptic plane. The Hi-90 sensor points 90o relative to the spin axis; each spacecraft spin, it measures ENA intensity over a great circle in the sky, sampling both the north and south ecliptic poles. As the IMAP spin vector is re-pointed daily toward the Sun, the ecliptic longitude of the swaths moves daily by ∼1o such that a full sky map is acquired by Hi-90 every six months and a complete low latitude (−45o to +45o) map is acquired by Hi-45 annually. The IMAP-Hi sensor design has direct heritage from the IBEX-Hi imager on the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) mission, with substantial improvements in energy range, energy resolution, angular resolution, signal-to-noise ratio, and, for ecliptic latitudes within ±45o, temporal resolution and exposure time. The global ENA maps acquired by IMAP-Hi partially overlap in energy and viewing with the ENA maps acquired by the IMAP-Lo and IMAP-Ultra ENA imagers, which we combine to answer fundamental questions about the structure and dynamics of the interaction of the heliosphere and the LISM.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Forecasting Megaelectron-Volt Electrons Inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt: PreMevE 2.0 Based on Supervised Machine Learning Algorithms

We present the recent progress in upgrading a predictive model for megaelectron-volt (MeV) electrons inside the Earth's outer Van Allen belt. This updated model, called PreMevE 2.0, provides improved forecasts, particularly at outer L-shells, by adding upstream solar wind speeds to the model's input parameter list that originally includes precipitating electrons observed at low Earth orbits and MeV electron fluxes in situ measured by a geosynchronous satellite. Furthermore, based on several kinds of linear and artificial neural networks algorithms, a list of models was constructed, trained, validated, and tested with 42-month MeV electron observations from Van Allen Probes. Out-of-sample test results from these models show that, with optimized model hyperparameters and input parameter combinations, the top performer from each category of models has the similar capability of making reliable 1-day (2-day) forecasts of 1-MeV electron flux distributions with performance efficiency values ~0.87 (~0.82) averaged over the L-shell range of 2.8–6.6, significantly outperforming the previous version of PreMevE particularly at L-shells > ~4.5. Interestingly, the linear regression model is often the most successful when compared to other models, which suggests the relationship between dynamics of trapped 1-MeV electrons and precipitating electrons is dominated by linear components. Results also show that PreMevE 2.0 can reasonably well predict the onsets of MeV electron events in 2-day forecasts. PreMevE 2.0 is designed to be driven by observations from longstanding space infrastructure to make high-fidelity forecasts for MeV electrons, thus can be an invaluable space weather forecasting tool for the future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗