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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Real-Time CME Forecasting Using HMI Active-Region Magnetograms and Flare History

We have recently developed a method of predicting an active region s probability of producing a CME, an X-class Flare, an M-class Flare, or a Solar Energetic Particle Event from a free-energy proxy measured from SOHO/MDI line-of-sight magnetograms. This year we have added three major improvements to our forecast tool: 1) Transition from MDI magnetogram to SDO/HMI magnetogram allowing us near-real-time forecasts, 2) Automation of acquisition and measurement of HMI magnetograms giving us near-real-time forecasts (no older than 2 hours), and 3) Determination of how to improve forecast by using the active region s previous flare history in combination with its free-energy proxy. HMI was turned on in May 2010 and MDI was turned off in April 2011. Using the overlap period, we have calibrated HMI to yield what MDI would measure. This is important since the value of the free-energy proxy used for our forecast is resolution dependent, and the forecasts are made from results of a 1996-2004 database of MDI observations. With near-real-time magnetograms from HMI, near-real-time forecasts are now possible. We have augmented the code so that it continually acquires and measures new magnetograms as they become available online, and updates the whole-sun forecast from the coming day. The next planned improvement is to use an active region s previous flare history, in conjunction with its free-energy proxy, to forecast the active region s event rate. It has long been known that active regions that have produced flares in the past are likely to produce flares in the future, and that active regions that are nonpotential (have large free-energy) are more likely to produce flares in the future. This year we have determined that persistence of flaring is not just a reflection of an active region s free energy. In other words, after controlling for free energy, we have found that active regions that have flared recently are more likely to flare in the future.

Falconer, David↗
NASA NTRS1984

Snow Reflectance from LANDSAT-4 Thematic Mapper

In California 75% of the agricultural water supply comes from the melting Sierra Nevada snowpack. Basin-wide albedo measurements from the LANDSAT-4 Thematic Mapper could be used to better forecast the timing of the spring runoff, because these data can be combined with solar radiation calculations to estimate the net radiation budget. The TM is better-suited for this purpose than the MSS because of its large dynamic range. Saturation still occurs in bands 1-4, but is severe only in band 1. Differentiation of snow optical grain size is possible with TM band 4 through a moderately clear atmosphere. The TM band 5 can discriminate clouds from snow, and the combination of bands 2 and 5 appears best for snow mapping.

Dozier, J.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Snow reflectance from Landsat-4 Thematic Mapper

In California 75 percent of the agricultural water supply comes from the melting Sierra Nevada snowpack. Basin-wide spectral albedo measurements from the Landsat-4 Thematic Mapper (TM) could be used to better forecast the timing of the spring runoff, because these data can be combined with solar radiation calculations to estimate the net radiation balance. The TM is better-suited for this purpose than the Multispectral Scanner because of its larger dynamic range. Saturation still occurs in bands 1-4, but is severe only in TM1 (0.45-0.52 micron). Snow reflectance in TM2 (0.43-0.61 micron) is typical of the visible wavelength region, where reflectance is almost insensitive to crystal size but sensitive to contamination. TM4 (0.78-0.90 micron) allows estimation of effective optical grain size and thereby spectral extension throughout the near-infrared. TM5 (1.57-1.78 microns) can discriminate clouds from snow.

Dozier, J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Solar Probe: Report of the Science and Technology Definition Team

The Solar Probe mission of the Living With a Star program will be a historic mission, flying into one of the last unexplored regions of the solar system, the Sun's atmoshpere or corona, for the first time. Approaching as close as 3 Rs above the Sun's surface, Solar Probe will employ a combination of in-situ measurements and imaging to achieve the mission's primary scientific goal: to understand how the Sun's corona is heated and how the solar wind is accelerated. Solar Probe will revolutionize our knowledge of the physics of the origin and evolution of the solar wind. Moreover, by making the only direct, in-situ measurements of the region where some of the deadliest solar energetic particles are energized, Solar Probe will make unique and fundamental contributions to our ability to characterize and forecast the radiation environment in which future space explorers will work and live.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2011

Accurate Radiometry from Space: An Essential Tool for Climate Studies

The Earth s climate is undoubtedly changing; however, the time scale, consequences and causal attribution remain the subject of significant debate and uncertainty. Detection of subtle indicators from a background of natural variability requires measurements over a time base of decades. This places severe demands on the instrumentation used, requiring measurements of sufficient accuracy and sensitivity that can allow reliable judgements to be made decades apart. The International System of Units (SI) and the network of National Metrology Institutes were developed to address such requirements. However, ensuring and maintaining SI traceability of sufficient accuracy in instruments orbiting the Earth presents a significant new challenge to the metrology community. This paper highlights some key measurands and applications driving the uncertainty demand of the climate community in the solar reflective domain, e.g. solar irradiances and reflectances/radiances of the Earth. It discusses how meeting these uncertainties facilitate significant improvement in the forecasting abilities of climate models. After discussing the current state of the art, it describes a new satellite mission, called TRUTHS, which enables, for the first time, high-accuracy SI traceability to be established in orbit. The direct use of a primary standard and replication of the terrestrial traceability chain extends the SI into space, in effect realizing a metrology laboratory in space . Keywords: climate change; Earth observation; satellites; radiometry; solar irradiance

Fox, Nigel↗
NASA NTRS2000

The Interaction of Solar wind Discontinuities with the Earth's Bow Shock

Funding from NASA Grant No. NAG54679 was received in three installments. The first year's installment amounted to only one month of salary support and was used to prepare survey plots. The second year's installment allowed us to complete two research papers concerning the interaction of solar wind discontinuities with the Earth's bow shock. In the first (published) paper, we reported that the discontinuities launch slow mode waves into the magnetosheath and the slow mode waves always propagate antisunward through the flank magnetosheath. Because the sunward/antisunward sense of the magnetosheath magnetic field reverses across local noon, so does the (north/south or east/west) sense of the velocity fluctuations associated with the waves. Wind, Geotail, and IMP-8 observations were used for this study. In the second study, we used Wind and Interball-1 observations to demonstrate that pressure pulses in the magnetosheath occur in pairs and that they bound pressure cavities and/or brief intervals of outward magnetopause motion. This paper is now in press. Funding from the third year's installment has been used to investigate the two aspects of the foreshock. Two manuscripts are now in preparation for submission to the Journal of Geophysical Research. The first reports that waves within the foreshock account for many instances of poor correlations between two solar wind monitors. Remaining cases of poor correlation occur during intervals of nearly constant IMF orientations and magnetic field strengths. While the former category pose a significant difficulty for space weather forecasts, the latter do not. The second study surveys IMP-8 observations of the foreshock. We find that diamagnetic cavities are common, particularly during periods of high solar wind velocity and low solar wind density. Plasma densities, temperatures, and magnetic field strengths fall during intervals of enhanced energetic particle fluxes. The cavities are bounded by regions of decelerated solar wind plasma and enhanced densities and magnetic field strengths.

Sibeck, David G.↗
NASA NTRS2023

ICARUS: in-Situ Studies of the Solar Corona Beyond Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter

The primary scientific goal of ICARUS (Investigation of Coronal AcceleRation and heating of solar wind Up to the Sun), a mother-daughter satellite mission, proposed in response to the ESA “Voyage 2050” Call, will be to determine how the magnetic field and plasma dynamics in the outer solar atmosphere give rise to the corona, the solar wind, and the entire heliosphere. Reaching this goal will be a Rosetta Stone step, with results that are broadly applicable within the fields of space plasma physics and astrophysics. Within ESA’s Cosmic Vision roadmap, these science goals address Theme 2: “How does the Solar System work?” by investigating basic processes occurring “From the Sun to the edge of the Solar System”. ICARUS will not only advance our understanding of the plasma environment around our Sun, but also of the numerous magnetically active stars with hot plasma coronae. ICARUS I will perform the first direct in situ measurements of electromagnetic fields, particle acceleration, wave activity, energy distribution, and flows directly in the regions in which the solar wind emerges from the coronal plasma. ICARUS I will have a perihelion altitude of 1 solar radius and will cross the region where the major energy deposition occurs. The polar orbit of ICARUS I will enable crossing the regions where both the fast and slow winds are generated. It will probe the local characteristics of the plasma and provide unique information about the physical processes involved in the creation of the solar wind. ICARUS II will observe this region using remote-sensing instruments, providing simultaneous, contextual information about regions crossed by ICARUS I and the solar atmosphere below as observed by solar telescopes. It will thus provide bridges for understanding the magnetic links between the heliosphere and the solar atmosphere. Such information is crucial to our understanding of the plasma physics and electrodynamics of the solar atmosphere. ICARUS II will also play a very important relay role, enabling the radio-link with ICARUS I. It will receive, collect, and store information transmitted from ICARUS I during its closest approach to the Sun. It will also perform preliminary data processing before transmitting it to Earth. Performing such unique in situ observations in the area where presumably hazardous solar energetic particles are energized, ICARUS will provide fundamental advances in our capabilities to monitor and forecast the space radiation environment. Therefore, the results from the ICARUS mission will be extremely crucial for future space explorations, especially for long-term crewed space missions.

Solar wind↗
NASA NTRS1998

Orbit selection and its impact on radiation warning architecture for a human mission to Mars

With the recent announcement of the discovery of the possibility of life on Mars, there is renewed interest in Mars missions, perhaps eventually in human missions. Astronauts on such missions are at risk to occasional periods of enhanced high energy particle flux from the sun known as Solar Particle Events. These events can pose a substantial risk to the health of the astronauts and to the on-board electronics. Effective forecast and warning of these events could provide time to take steps to minimize the risk (retreating to a safe haven, shutting down sensitive equipment, etc.) Providing that forecast capability, will require additional monitoring capability. The extent of this architecture is sensitive to the orbit selected for the transfer to and from Mars. This paper looks at the major classes of Mars missions (Conjunction and Opposition) and sub-categories of these classes and draws conclusions on the number of monitoring satellites needed for each, with a goal to reducing total system cost through optimum orbit selection.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2017

Nowcasting and Forecasting of the Magnetopause and Bow Shock - A Status Update

There has long been interest in knowing the shape and location of the Earth's magnetopause and of the standing fast-mode bow shock upstream of the Earth's magnetosphere. This quest for knowledge spans both the research and operations arenas. Pertinent to the latter, nowcasting and near-term forecasting are important for determining the extent to which the magnetosphere is compressed or expanded due to the influence of the solar wind bulk plasma and fields and the coupling to other magnetosphere-ionosphere processes with possible effects on assets. This article provides an update to a previous article on the same topic published 15 years earlier, with focus on studies that have been conducted, the current status of nowcasting and forecasting of geophysical boundaries, and future endeavors.

Magnetospheric Modeling↗
NASA NTRS2005

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Science Research for Energy Management: Overview of Energy Issues and an Assessment of the Potential for Application of NASA Earth Science Research - Part 1

Effective management of energy resources is critical for the U.S. economy, the environment, and, more broadly, for sustainable development and alleviating poverty worldwide. The scope of energy management is broad, ranging from energy production and end use to emissions monitoring and mitigation and long-term planning. Given the extensive NASA Earth science research on energy and related weather and climate-related parameters, and rapidly advancing energy technologies and applications, there is great potential for increased application of NASA Earth science research to selected energy management issues and decision support tools. The NASA Energy Management Program Element is already involved in a number of projects applying NASA Earth science research to energy management issues, with a focus on solar and wind renewable energy and developing interests in energy modeling, short-term load forecasting, energy efficient building design, and biomass production.

Atmospheric models↗
NASA NTRS2008

Solar and Heliospheric Modeling at the CCMC

The CCMC has three principal functions, 1) To test and validate model in use in the research community that are destined for a future Space Weather forecasting role, 2) To make them available for wider use in the research community, and 3) To assist in transitioning these models to Rapid Prototyping Centers. Beginning in 2000 with a small model inventory, the CCMC now hosts more than 40 models or model combinations, covering the solar atmosphere, heliosphere, magnetosphere and ionosphere. In this talk I will describe the solar and heliospheric modeling component, its history, its current status and our future plans.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1991

Chaos in the sunspot cycle - Analysis and prediction

The variability of solar activity over long time scales, given semiquantitatively by measurements of sunspot numbers, is examined as a nonlinear dynamical system. First, a discussion of the data set used and the techniques utilized to reduce the noise and capture the long-term dynamics inherent in the data is presented. Subsequently, an attractor is reconstructed from the data set using the method of time delays. The reconstructed attractor is then used to determine both the dimension of the underlying system and also the largest Lyapunov exponent, which together indicate that the sunspot cycle is indeed chaotic and also low dimensional. In addition, recent techniques of exploiting chaotic dynamics to provide accurate, short-term predictions are utilized in order to improve upon current forecasting methods and also to place theoretical limits on predictability extent. The results are compared to chaotic solar-dynamo models as a possible physically motivated source of this chaotic behavior.

Mundt, Michael D.↗
NASA NTRS1975

New horizons

The contribution of space exploration and space related research to the future of man and the accomplishments of the space program are assessed. Topics discussed include: the role of applications satellites in crop surveillance, land use surveys, weather forecasting, education, communications, and pollution monitoring; planetary studies which examine the origin and evolution of the solar system, including dynamic processes that bear directly on earth's environment; and fuel conservation and development of new energy sources.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1979

Propagation predictions for the HF-range by the Research Institute of the Deutsche Bundespost

Long term and short term HF propagation prediction service is described. The long term prediction method is computer based. The short term prediction method is still a manual method which relies mainly on a number of continuous field strength recordings and on the forecaster's ability to interpret the recordings and to combine this information with all available solar-geophysical data. Examples of the predictions are given and are compared with actually observed HF propagation conditions.

Damboldt, T.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Using Landsat to provide potato production estimates to Columbia Basin farmers and processors

A summary of project activities relative to the estimation of potato yields in the Columbia Basin is given. Oregon State University is using a two-pronged approach to yield estimation, one using simulation models and the other using purely empirical models. The simulation modeling approach has used satellite observations to determine key dates in the development of the crop for each field identified as potatoes. In particular, these include planting dates, emergence dates, and harvest dates. These critical dates are fed into simulation models of crop growth and development to derive yield forecasts. Two empirical modeling approaches are illustrated. One relates tuber yield to estimates of cumulative intercepted solar radiation; the other relates tuber yield to the integral under the GVI curve.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2011

Validation of Space Weather Models at Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase space weather modeling capabilities and to facilitate advanced models deployment in forecasting operations. Space weather models and coupled model chains hosted at the CCMC range from the solar corona to the Earth's upper atmosphere. CCMC has developed a number of real-time modeling systems, as well as a large number of modeling and data products tailored to address the space weather needs of NASA's robotic missions. The CCMC conducts unbiased model testing and validation and evaluates model readiness for operational environment. CCMC has been leading recent comprehensive modeling challenges under GEM, CEDAR and SHINE programs. The presentation will focus on experience in carrying out comprehensive and systematic validation of large sets of. space weather models

Kuznetsova, M. M.↗
NASA NTRS2018

A GEOS-Based OSSE for the "MISTiC Winds" Concept

The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric model and data assimilation system are used to perform an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) for the proposed MISTiC Wind mission. The GEOS OSSE includes a reference simulation (the Nature Run), from which the pseudo-observations are generated. These pseuo-observations span the entire suite of in-situ and space space-based observations presently used in operational weather prediction, with the addition of the MISTiC-Wind dataset. New observation operators have been constructed for the MISTiC Wind data, including both the radiances measured in the 4-micron part of the solar spectrum and the winds derived from these radiances. The OSSE examines the impacts on global forecast skill of adding these observations to the current operational suite, showing substantial improvements in forecasts when the wind information are added. It is shown that a constellation of four MISTiC Wind satellites provides more benefit than a single platform, largely because of the increased accuracy of the feature-derived wind measurements when more platforms are used.

McCarty, W.↗