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At least 271 records · Page 15

Numerical simulation of controlled large space structures

Large Space Structures do not have much damping, which necessitates the installation of a controller onto the structure. If the controller is improperly designed, the structure may become unstable and be destroyed. Since Large Space Structures are extremely expensive pieces of hardware, new controllers must not be tested first on the structure. They must first be tested in computer simulations. Until now, the usual procedure for simulating controlled Large Space Structures is to compute a reduced order modal representation of the structure and then apply the controller. However, this procedure entails modal truncation error. A new software package which is free from this error is currently under development within the Center for Space Construction. The more accurate finite element representation of the structure is used in the simulation, instead of the less accurate reduced order modal representation. This software also features an efficient matrix storage scheme, which effectively deals with the asymmetric system matrices which occur when control is added to the structure. Also, an integration algorithm was chosen so that the simulation is a reliable indicator of system stability or instability. The software package is fairly general in nature. Linearity of the finite element model and of the controller is the only assumption made. Actuator dynamics, sensor dynamics, noise, and disturbances can be handled by the package. In addition, output feedback of displacement, velocity, and/or acceleration signals can be simulated. Kalman state estimation was also implemented. This software was tested on a finite element model of a real Large Space Structure: The Mini-Mast Truss. Mini-Mast is a testbed at NASA-Langley which is currently under development. A 714 degree of freedom finite element model was computed, and a 19 state controller was designed for it. Torque wheel dynamics were added to the model, and the entire closed loop system was simulated with the software package.

Quan, Ralph↗

NASA Software Cost Estimation Model: An Analogy Based Estimation Model

The cost estimation of software development activities is increasingly critical for large scale integrated projects such as those at DOD and NASA especially as the software systems become larger and more complex. As an example MSL (Mars Scientific Laboratory) developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory launched with over 2 million lines of code making it the largest robotic spacecraft ever flown (Based on the size of the software). Software development activities are also notorious for their cost growth, with NASA flight software averaging over 50% cost growth. All across the agency, estimators and analysts are increasingly being tasked to develop reliable cost estimates in support of program planning and execution. While there has been extensive work on improving parametric methods there is very little focus on the use of models based on analogy and clustering algorithms. In this paper we summarize our findings on effort/cost model estimation and model development based on ten years of software effort estimation research using data mining and machine learning methods to develop estimation models based on analogy and clustering. The NASA Software Cost Model performance is evaluated by comparing it to COCOMO II, linear regression, and K-­ nearest neighbor prediction model performance on the same data set.

Hihn, Jairus↗

Lifetime Reliability Prediction of Ceramic Structures Under Transient Thermomechanical Loads

An analytical methodology is developed to predict the probability of survival (reliability) of ceramic components subjected to harsh thermomechanical loads that can vary with time (transient reliability analysis). This capability enables more accurate prediction of ceramic component integrity against fracture in situations such as turbine startup and shutdown, operational vibrations, atmospheric reentry, or other rapid heating or cooling situations (thermal shock). The transient reliability analysis methodology developed herein incorporates the following features: fast-fracture transient analysis (reliability analysis without slow crack growth, SCG); transient analysis with SCG (reliability analysis with time-dependent damage due to SCG); a computationally efficient algorithm to compute the reliability for components subjected to repeated transient loading (block loading); cyclic fatigue modeling using a combined SCG and Walker fatigue law; proof testing for transient loads; and Weibull and fatigue parameters that are allowed to vary with temperature or time. Component-to-component variation in strength (stochastic strength response) is accounted for with the Weibull distribution, and either the principle of independent action or the Batdorf theory is used to predict the effect of multiaxial stresses on reliability. The reliability analysis can be performed either as a function of the component surface (for surface-distributed flaws) or component volume (for volume-distributed flaws). The transient reliability analysis capability has been added to the NASA CARES/ Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code. CARES/Life was also updated to interface with commercially available finite element analysis software, such as ANSYS, when used to model the effects of transient load histories. Examples are provided to demonstrate the features of the methodology as implemented in the CARES/Life program.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗

Viscoelastic Material Characterization and Modeling of Photovoltaic Module Packaging Materials for Direct Finite-Element Method Input

Numerical tools, such as the finite-element method, are increasingly used to design and evaluate the photovoltaic (PV) modules, providing for the reduction of development time and improved performance and reliability. However, high-fidelity material models are necessary to accurately model the complex structural behavior of the involved packaging materials. A common simplification used in recent years is to model the polymer materials (i.e., encapsulant and backsheet) as linear elastic, which will lead to inaccurate results. Therefore, in this work, we present a thorough characterization of the time- and temperature-dependent mechanical response of predominant PV module encapsulant and backsheet materials. Based on this material characterization, we developed and experimentally validated generalized Maxwell models to describe each material's viscoelastic response. In addition, we included measurements of the coefficient of thermal expansion and presented all material models in such a fashion for direct input into commercial finite-element method modeling software.

FEM↗

HYPPO: A Surrogate-Based Multi-Level Parallelism Tool for Hyperparameter Optimization

We present a new software, HYPPO, that enables the automatic tuning of hyperparameters of various deep learning (DL) models. Unlike other hyperparameter optimization (HPO) methods, HYPPO uses adaptive surrogate models and directly accounts for uncertainty in model predictions to find accurate and reliable models that make robust predictions. Using asynchronous nested parallelism, we are able to significantly alleviate the computational burden of training complex architectures and quantifying the uncertainty. HYPPO is implemented in Python and can be used with both TensorFlow and PyTorch libraries. We demonstrate various software features on time-series prediction and image classification problems as well as a scientific application in computed tomography image reconstruction. Finally, we show that (1) we can reduce by an order of magnitude the number of evaluations necessary to find the most optimal region in the hyperparameter space and (2) we can reduce by two orders of magnitude the throughput for such HPO process to complete.

adaptation models↗

Event Tree Success Branch Modeling Approaches in SAPHIRE/SPAR

Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models are a set of linked fault tree/event tree PRA models that have been used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the risk of operations at U.S. nuclear power plants since 1990s. The models use the Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) code developed by the NRC and Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Currently Version 8, SAPHIRE is a powerful software with advanced features to perform separated or integrated Level 1, Level 2, internal events, external events, at-power, and low power shutdown PRA [1]. One of its features is the availability of three different approaches to model the success branch of a top event in event tree: delete term, complement of system logic, and developed event. However, improper choosing and modeling success branch might yield unexpected and incorrect results. This paper will discuss the two most often used success branch modeling approaches, delete term and developed event, and provide recommendations for using proper approaches in different models. A potential SAPHIRE code enhancement is also proposed to address the adverse impact brought by the developed event approach.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

HOMP (Hybrid Operation and Maintenance Platform) [SWR-22-81]

The HOMP software module is contained within NREL's Hybrid Optimization and Performance Platform (HOPP) at this URL: https://github.com/NREL/HOPP/tree/feature/HOMP. HOMP is a python-based software module which can be used concurrently with the Hybrid Optimization and Performance Platform (HOPP) to model, simulate, and optimize degradation, reliability, and operations and maintenance of hybrid power plant components. The program currently models lithium ion battery, PEM electrolyzer, wind turbine, and solar PV array components, which enables users to understand the design and operation tradeoffs of hybrid power plants. For instance, HOMP enables users to answer questions like: how large does a battery bank need to be to achieve optimal charge/discharge rates for performance and reliability? How does plant design change for different objectives (e.g., profit versus resilience)? Under what conditions is it better to produce electricity versus hydrogen? How do we optimally control hybrid power plants to reduce downtime and increase performance?

Clark, Caitlyn↗

Geothermal Deep Direct Use for Turbine Inlet Cooling in East Texas

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the Southern Methodist University Geothermal Laboratory (SMU), Eastman Chemical (Longview, TX), and TAS (Houston, TX) evaluated the feasibility of using geothermal heat to improve the performance of a natural-gas power plant in East Texas. The area of interest is the Eastman Chemical plant in Longview, Texas, which is on the northwestern margin of a geologic region known as the Sabine Uplift. The feasibility study focused on determining the potential for accessing a subsurface hot-water geothermal resource within a 10-km radius of the site to provide thermal energy for absorption chillers. Wells within a 20-km radius are included for broader geological comparison to determine the heat flow, temperature-at-depth, field porosity and permeability. The lithologies of most interest are the Lower Cretaceous Trinity Group and Upper Jurassic Cotton Valley Group. The deeper Cotton Valley formations are hotter (averaging 117 to 130°C), yet permeability and porosity are low. The shallower Trinity Group contains more variability in permeability and porosity and lower temperatures averaging about 98 to 117°C. The shallower formations are considered despite the lower temperature because of increased ability to produce larger volumes of water and extract enough heat before reinjection. The complete SMU analysis is available in the National Geothermal Data System (NGDS). Tapping such deep geothermal sources for direct heating (as opposed to power generation) is known as geothermal deep direct use (DDU). Geothermal DDU has potential across a wide swath of the United States but is underutilized due to challenging project economics associated with developing a deep geothermal resource for what are typically small-scale, variable-demand projects. This project examines the feasibility of geothermal energy integration in a natural-gas combined cycle power station in East Texas. The DDU resource is tapped to drive absorption chillers (24/7) for production of chilled water at 5-10°C (41-50°F). This chilled water is stored until needed, which allows for continuous operation with a relatively small-capacity geothermal/absorption chiller system. When conditions are favorable, the chilled water is dispatched to cool the air entering the compressor stage of a gas combustion turbine. This process, known as turbine inlet cooling (TIC), boosts power production during periods of high temperature and high-power demand. Such systems can enhance grid reliability and reduce the cost for peak-demand power. A simulation model of the power plant was developed in IPSEpro software and validated against operational data from the plant. This model allowed the team to estimate the additional power that could be produced by applying TIC under different operating and ambient conditions. Absorption chiller performance was estimated from vendor sources to determine the production rate of chilled water from the geothermal resource. Geothermal drilling and development costs were estimated using NREL's GEOPHIRES 2.0. The expected lower drilling costs in this region led to an estimated cost of geothermal heat of about $4/MMBtu (1.4 cents/kWh t ). The estimated cost for the absorption chillers and TIC hardware were obtained from literature sources and project partners. Hourly data were obtained for weather, natural gas and electricity prices, and plant operating state for 2017, which served as a representative year. NREL estimated the capital cost, operating cost, and additional electricity production and revenue for different combinations of geothermal capacity, chiller capacity, and water storage-tank size. The analysis drove toward smaller geothermal and chiller systems to reduce equipment cost. A relatively low-cost water storage tank accumulated the near-continuous chilled water output for later use when TIC was most valued.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Integration of Data Analytics with Plant System Health Program

This report summarizes the R&D activities of the Plant Health Management (PHM) project during fiscal year 2020 (FY20). This project focuses on the development of methods that integrate component health data and propagate such information at the system level to evaluate system sources of risk. This project development lives in cooperation with the Risk Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project. The RIAM project, in fact, uses the reliability models and data generated by the PHM project to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedule, optimal maintenance posture). This year’s activities for the PHM project focused mainly on the development of two classes of models. The first one includes a series of component reliability models which include aging, testing and maintenance. The second class includes a series of system reliability models which focus on the secondary side of exiting U.S. reactors. These models are based on fault tree logic structures such that they can be used by existing plant PRA software. We also started to focus on the management of health data and we tackled this issue in two directions. The first one focuses on the integration of monitor data with simulation models to assess component health. This approach is moving from a classical data based to a model+data based approach with the goal of improving higher component health information. The second direction focuses on linking equipment reliability data (e.g., maintenance/failure reports, component monitoring data) directly to system reliability models using a safety margin based language rather than a probability based language. The main advantage of a safety margin based language is that it can provide to system engineers more tangible information on system/component health and how it propagates to the system level.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Bison Verification and Validation Activities for TRISO

Numerical modeling and simulation (M&S) tools play a key role in the research, development, and overall safety assessments of next-generation nuclear energy systems. One such tool, Bison, is a nuclear fuel performance code that is applicable to many fuel forms (e.g., light-water reactor fuel, oxide and metallic fuel for fast reactors, tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel, and plate fuel), and it uses the finite element method to model the thermo- mechanical response of nuclear fuels. One fuel form widely utilized in Generation-IV high-temperature gas-cooled and fluoride- salt-cooled nuclear reactor concepts is TRISO fuel. Recently, Bison’s capabilities were significantly expanded to enable it to model the performance of TRISO particles and compacts. It is important that Bison’s computational results be reliable and predictive, since this code is used to inform high-consequence decisions. The various processes developed to address this issue generally entail two fundamental steps: verification and validation (V&V). Verification ensures that the code functions correctly and is reliable. Code/solution verification, code benchmark, and software quality assurance exercises are examples of verification activities. On the other hand, validation is the process of assessing a code’s capability to accurately model physical problems. Comparisons between code results and experiments quantify the validation level. Application of V&V procedures is crucial to the development of computational tools that are free of coding mistakes and can accurately represent reality. The current study presents an overview of Bison V&V activities relevant to the TRISO fuel concept, which include code/solution verification exercises, CRP-6 Benchmark—a Coordinated Research Program through the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)—exercises, and validation exercises with the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)- 1/2/3/4 experiment series.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Equivalent Test Bed in PSCAD and PSLF for Studying Advanced Power Systems Controller Performance

With increasing popularity of sustainable energy resources, research on power electronic-based renewable generation modeling is gaining impetus to enhance reliability of electric grids with high penetrations of renewable energy. A set of generic and public models for renewable energy are available in commercial positive sequence power system simulation software. However, advanced controller models applicable for renewable resources are typically not included in these tools. To ensure the integrity of the newly developed controller models for renewables in positive sequence simulators for large power systems, it is necessary to validate the dynamic performance of the proposed model with detailed electromagnetic models. This paper creates an equivalent test bed in PSCAD and PSLF for validating the performance of advanced controllers associated with renewable energy sources. To demonstrate the usefulness of the test-bed, a user-defined synthetic inertia (SI) controller model was developed in PSLF and validated through the proposed test bed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection

The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate has not been significantly reduced (e.g., from the IPCC AR4 to AR5). With the rapid increase of complexity in Earth system models, reducing uncertainties in climate projections becomes extremely challenging. Since uncertainties always exist in climate models, interpreting the strengths and limitations of future climate projections is key to evaluating risks, and climate change information for use in Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation (VIA) studies should be provided with both well-characterized and well-quantified uncertainty. The workshop reported herein aimed at providing participants, many of them from developing countries, information on strategies to quantify the uncertainty in climate model projections and assess the reliability of climate change information for decision-making. The program included a mixture of lectures on fundamental concepts in Bayesian inference and sampling, applications, and hands-on computer laboratory exercises employing software packages for Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and global sensitivity analyses. The lectures covered a range of scientific issues underlying the evaluation of uncertainties in climate projections, such as the effects of uncertain initial and boundary conditions, uncertain physics, and limitations of observational records. Progress in quantitatively estimating uncertainties in hydrologic, land surface, and atmospheric models at both regional and global scales was also reviewed. The application of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) concepts to coupled climate system models is still in its infancy. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) multi-model ensemble currently represents the primary data for assessing reliability and uncertainties of climate change information. An alternative approach is to generate similar ensembles by perturbing parameters within a single-model framework. One of workshop’s objectives was to give participants a deeper understanding of these approaches within a Bayesian statistical framework. However, there remain significant challenges still to be resolved before UQ can be applied in a convincing way to climate models and their projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stochastic analysis of surface metrology

The design and evaluation of the expected performance of optical systems require sophisticated and reliable information about the surface topography for planned optical elements before they are fabricated. Modern x-ray source facilities are reliant upon the availability of optics with unprecedented quality (surface slope accuracy <0.1 μrad). The problem is especially complex in the case of x-ray optics, particularly for the X-ray Surveyor under development and other missions. The high angular resolution and throughput of future x-ray space observatories requires hundreds of square meters of high-quality optics. The uniqueness of the optics and limited number of proficient vendors makes the fabrication extremely time consuming and expensive, mostly due to the limitations in accuracy and measurement rate of metrology used in fabrication. Here, we discuss improvements in metrology efficacy via comprehensive statistical analysis of a compact volume of metrology data. The data are considered stochastic, and a statistical model called invertible time-invariant linear filter (InTILF) is developed now for two-dimensional (2-D) surface profiles to provide compact description of the 2-D data in addition to one-dimensional data treated so far. The InTILF model captures stochastic patterns in the data and can be used as a quality metric and feedback to polishing processes, avoiding high-resolution metrology measurements over the entire optical surface. The modeling, implemented in our BeatMark™ software, allows simulating metrology data for optics made by the same vendor and technology. The data are vital for reliable specification for optical fabrication, to be exactly adequate for the required system performance.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A methodology for generating reduced-order models for large-scale buildings using the Krylov subspace method

Developing a computationally efficient but accurate building energy simulation (BES) model is important for many purposes. Model order reduction (MOR) methods are attractive and much more reliable than identification approaches, since it directly extract a lower-dimensional model from a detailed physics-based model without any pre-simulations. However, because of computational and data storage requirements, there are challenges of applying these methods to a large-scale building. To overcome the problem, this work introduces the Krylov subspace method to the building science field. Technical issues of applying the method to building applications are addressed and a suitable algorithm that overcomes those challenges is presented. Furthermore, to demonstrate the reliability of the algorithm, comparisons between the resulted reduced-order model (ROM) and a high-fidelity model from a commercial BES software for a 60-zone case study building are provided. The ROM was a factor of 100 faster than the high fidelity model but with high accuracy.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Development and evaluation of a fault-tolerant multiprocessor (FTMP) computer

The design, development, and testing of FTMP hardware and software for use in advanced NASA vehicles are described in three previously published reports prepared for NASA. Consideration is given to the overall FTMP architecture; the system bus; the regional design and operation of processor, slave, clock-generation, and power systems; and the FTMP executive, facilities, acceptance-test/diagnostic, applications, and support softwar. Also included are a summary of test procedures and results and an executive summary characterizing the system, the reliability and availability models, and the overall performance.

Smith, T. B., III↗

Failure Analysis and Products in a Model-Based Environment

The work presented in this paper describes an approach, including a methodology and tools, which allows system engineers to capture failure-related information in a model and generate automatically key failure analysis products: the Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) and the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The work has been developed by Tietronix Software, Inc. and the NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), and the resulting auto-generated artifacts shown in this paper demonstrate the ability to obtain powerful reliability and fault management products in a model-based environment.

Castet, Jean-Francois↗

Π4U: A high performance computing framework for Bayesian uncertainty quantification of complex models

We present Π4U,{sup 1} an extensible framework, for non-intrusive Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation (UQ+P) of complex and computationally demanding physical models, that can exploit massively parallel computer architectures. The framework incorporates Laplace asymptotic approximations as well as stochastic algorithms, along with distributed numerical differentiation and task-based parallelism for heterogeneous clusters. Sampling is based on the Transitional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC) algorithm and its variants. The optimization tasks associated with the asymptotic approximations are treated via the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES). A modified subset simulation method is used for posterior reliability measurements of rare events. The framework accommodates scheduling of multiple physical model evaluations based on an adaptive load balancing library and shows excellent scalability. In addition to the software framework, we also provide guidelines as to the applicability and efficiency of Bayesian tools when applied to computationally demanding physical models. Theoretical and computational developments are demonstrated with applications drawn from molecular dynamics, structural dynamics and granular flow.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

MOOSE-based Tritium Migration Analysis Program, Version 8 (TMAP8) for advanced open-source tritium transport and fuel cycle modeling

Tritium management is critical for the safety, sustainability, and economics of fusion energy systems, and advanced and reliable modeling tools help accelerate the development of tritium technologies. This paper presents the Tritium Migration Analysis Program, Version 8 (TMAP8), an open-source, MOOSE-based application developed to provide state-of-the-art tritium transport and fuel cycle modeling capabilities. TMAP8 aims to expand the capabilities of previous versions (i.e., TMAP4 and TMAP7) by leveraging modern computational techniques, ensuring high software quality assurance standards (key to building trust), and enabling multispecies, multiscale, and multiphysics simulations for integrated tritium transport modeling in complex geometries. This paper outlines TMAP8’s scope and rigorous development practices, emphasizing its transparency, accessibility, modularity, and reliability. We present the current suite of verification and validation cases based on those from TMAP4, demonstrating TMAP8’s accuracy and reliability against analytical solutions and experimental data. Additionally, the paper showcases TMAP8’s integrated fuel cycle modeling capabilities, highlighting its applicability at various scales and levels. The TMAP8 code and documentation are openly available, promoting collaborative development and widespread adoption within the fusion community. Future work will soon expand TMAP8’s verification and validation suite to include those from TMAP7 and other recent experimental studies for validation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗