Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “simulation kernel”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

DMTN-021: Implementation of Image Difference Decorrelation

Herein, we describe a method for decorrelating image differences produced by the Alard and Lupton (1998) method of PSF matching. Inspired by the recent work of Zackay et al. (2016) and the prior work of Kaiser [2004], this proposed method uses a single post-subtraction convolution of an image difference to remove the neighboring pixel covariances in the image difference that result from the convolution of the template image by the PSF matching kernel. We describe the method in detail, analyze its effects on image differences (both real and simulated) as well as on detections and photometry of detected sources in decorrelated image differences. We also compare the decorrelated image differences with those resulting from a basic implementation of Zackay et al. (2016). We describe the implementation of the new correction in the LSST image differencing pipeline, and discuss potential issues and areas of future research.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Examination of a Methane/Diesel RCCI Engine Using Pele: Preprint

Multi-fuel, advanced injection strategies have become increasingly promising as a strategy to mitigate the emissions generated from internal combustion engines. By carefully controlling the combustion phasing in-cylinder, these new multi-pulse, multi-fuel injection strategies are able to burn in the low-temperature combustion regime where both NOx and soot are not readily produced, reducing the need for extensive exhaust gas recirculation systems. In this study, we examine a reactivity-controlled compression ignition (RCCI) strategy that uses an early pre-filled methane-air mixture with low turbulence background as the low-reactivity fuel and a direct injection of four discrete dodecane jets as a surrogate for the high-reactivity diesel fuel. We use the Pele software suite, a highly optimized, exascale-ready, adaptive mesh refinement codebase to perform high-resolution numerical simulations of a scaled down, single cylinder from the RCCI engine. Here, we resolve the ignition kernels down to micrometer scales and present several statistical quantities evaluating the development of the flow and detailing the onset of ignition and subsequent flame development. Particular attention is paid to the conditions surrounding the onset of the first ignition kernels and discussing what led to the development of those conditions.

CFD↗
DOE OSTI2016

Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models

Here, we use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of time-dependent emission inventories with observations. We also found that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI), reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000–2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias in CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model–observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. Our results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accurately simulating core-collapse self-interacting dark matter halos

The properties of satellite halos provide a promising probe for dark matter (DM) physics. Observations have motivated current efforts to explain surprisingly compact DM halos. If DM is not collisionless, but has strong self-interactions, halos can undergo gravothermal collapse, leading to higher densities in the central region of the halo. However, it is challenging to model this collapse phase from first principles. To improve on this, we sought to better understand the numerical challenges and convergence properties of self-interacting dark matter (SIDM) N-body simulations in the collapse phase. Especially, our aim was to better understand the evolution of satellite halos. To do so, we ran SIDM N-body simulations of a low-mass halo in isolation and within an external gravitational potential. The simulation set-up was motivated by the perturber of the stellar stream GD-1. We find that the halo evolution is very sensitive to energy conservation errors, and a SIDM kernel size that is too large can artificially speed up the collapse. Moreover, we demonstrate that the King model can describe the density profile at small radii for the late stages that we have simulated. Furthermore, for our most highly resolved simulation (N = 5 × 10 7 ) we have made the data public. It can serve as a benchmark. Overall, we find that the current numerical methods do not suffer from convergence problems in the late collapse phase and provide guidance on how to choose numerical parameters, for example that the energy conservation error is better kept well below 1%. This allows simulations to be run of halos that become concentrated enough to explain observations of GD-1-like stellar streams or strong gravitational lensing systems.

dark matter↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling of the effects of non-equilibrium excitation and electrode geometry on H 2 /air ignition in a nanosecond plasma discharge

In this work, we present the results of two-dimensional modeling of the effects of non-equilibrium excitation and electrode geometry on H 2 /air ignition in a nanosecond plasma discharge. A multiscale adaptive reduced chemistry solver for plasma assisted combustion (MARCS-PAC) based on PASSKEy discharge modeling package and compressible multi-component reactive flow solver ASURF+ is developed and validated. This model is applied to simulate the impact of non-equilibrium plasma excitation and electrode geometry and heat loss on the dynamics of the discharge from streamer to spark and ignition kernel development in a H 2 /air mixture with a pair of cylindrical electrodes. The results show that the plasmagenerated species (N 2 (A), N 2 (B), N 2 (a'), N 2 (C), O( 1 D), O and H) in the spark and afterglow significantly accelerate the ignition kernel development. The increase of discharge voltage at the same total discharge energy promotes the non-equilibrium active species production. It is found that the production of electronically excited species at higher reduced electric field strength is more efficient in enhancing ignition in comparison to the vibrational excitation and heating. Moreover, the 2D simulation clearly reveals that the electric field and active species distribution are highly non-uniform. The streamers are initiated at the sharp outer edges of the negative and positive electrodes by a strong electric field while the electric field is much weaker at the centerline of the electrodes. Furthermore, the simulations reveal that the ignition enhancement is sensitive to the variation of electrode shape, diameter, and gap size due to the changes of electric field distribution and location of streamer formation. A cylindrical electrode produces a larger discharge volume and ignition kernel than the parabolic and spherical electrodes, when the discharge is localized near the axis of the gap. It is found that there is a non-monotonic dependence of ignition kernel size on the electrode diameter and inter-electrode distance. The increase of electrode diameter and gap size above the optimal conditions leads to the reduction of ignition kernel volume, due to the decrease of active species concentration and gas temperature. At a larger electrode surface area and electrode diameter as well as smaller electrode gap size, the heat loss to electrode plays a greater role in reducing the ignition kernel size and slowing ignition kernel development. This work provides insights and guidance to understand the kinetic enhancement of non-equilibrium plasma and the effects of electrode geometries on ignition for the optimization ignitors in advanced engines.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-time memory effects in a localizable central spin problem

We study the properties of the Nakajima–Zwanzig memory kernel for a qubit immersed in a many-body localized (i.e. disordered and interacting) bath. We argue that the memory kernel decays as a power law in both the localized and ergodic regimes, and show how this can be leveraged to extract t → ∞ populations for the qubit from finite time (Jt ≤ 10 2 ) data in the thermalizing phase. This allows us to quantify how the long-time values of the populations approach the expected thermalized state as the bath approaches the thermodynamic limit. This approach should provide a good complement to state-of-the-art numerical methods, for which the long-time dynamics with large baths are impossible to simulate in this phase. Additionally, our numerics on finite baths reveal the possibility for unbounded exponential growth in the memory kernel, a phenomenon rooted in the appearance of exceptional points in the projected Liouvillian governing the reduced dynamics. In small systems amenable to exact numerics, we find that these pathologies may have some correlation with delocalization.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Combining the mapping Hamiltonian linearized semiclassical approach with the generalized quantum master equation to simulate electronically nonadiabatic molecular dynamics

The generalized quantum master equation (GQME) provides a powerful framework for simulating electronically nonadiabatic molecular dynamics. Within this framework, the effect of the nuclear degrees of freedom on the time evolution of the electronic reduced density matrix is fully captured by a memory kernel superoperator. In this paper, we consider two different procedures for calculating the memory kernel of the GQME from projection-free inputs obtained via the combination of the mapping Hamiltonian (MH) approach and the linearized semiclassical (LSC) approximation. Here, the accuracy and feasibility of the two procedures are demonstrated on the spin-boson model. We find that although simulating the electronic dynamics by direct application of the two LSC-based procedures leads to qualitatively different results that become increasingly less accurate with increasing time, restricting their use to calculating the memory kernel leads to an accurate description of the electronic dynamics. Comparison with a previously proposed procedure for calculating the memory kernel via the Ehrenfest method reveals that MH/LSC methods produce memory kernels that are better behaved at long times and lead to more accurate electronic dynamics

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2017

Optimal smoothing length scale for actuator line models of wind turbine blades based on Gaussian body force distribution: Wind energy, actuator line model

The actuator line model (ALM) is a commonly used method to represent lifting surfaces such as wind turbine blades within large-eddy simulations (LES). In the ALM, the lift and drag forces are replaced by an imposed body force that is typically smoothed over several grid points using a Gaussian kernel with some prescribed smoothing width e. To date, the choice of e has most often been based on numerical considerations related to the grid spacing used in LES. However, especially for finely resolved LES with grid spacings on the order of or smaller than the chord length of the blade, the best choice of e is not known. In this work, a theoretical approach is followed to determine the most suitable value of e, based on an analytical solution to the linearized inviscid flow response to a Gaussian force. We find that the optimal smoothing width eopt is on the order of 14%-25% of the chord length of the blade, and the center of force is located at about 13%-26% downstream of the leading edge of the blade for the cases considered. These optimal values do not depend on angle of attack and depend only weakly on the type of lifting surface. It is then shown that an even more realistic velocity field can be induced by a 2-D elliptical Gaussian lift-force kernel. Some results are also provided regarding drag force representation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

TU-AB-BRC-06: Dose Calculation in Curved Space

Purpose: Microbeam Radiation Therapy is a preclinical method in radiation oncology that modulates radiation fields on a micrometre scale. Dose calculation is challenging due to arising dose gradients and therapeutically important dose ranges. Monte Carlo (MC) simulations, often used as gold standard, are computationally expensive and hence too slow for the optimisation of treatment parameters in future clinical applications. On the other hand, conventional kernel based dose calculation leads to inaccurate results close to material interfaces. The purpose of this work is to overcome these inaccuracies while keeping computation times low. Methods: A point kernel superposition algorithm is modified to account for tissue inhomogeneities. Instead of conventional ray tracing approaches, methods from differential geometry are applied and the space around the primary photon interaction is locally warped. The performance of this approach is compared to MC simulations and a simple convolution algorithm (CA) for two different phantoms and photon spectra. Results: While peak doses of all dose calculation methods agreed within less than 4% deviations, the proposed approach surpassed a simple convolution algorithm in accuracy by a factor of up to 3 in the scatter dose. In a treatment geometry similar to possible future clinical situations differences between Monte Carlo and the differential geometry algorithm were less than 3%. At the same time the calculation time did not exceed 15 minutes. Conclusion: With the developed method it was possible to improve the dose calculation based on the CA method with respect to accuracy especially at sharp tissue boundaries. While the calculation is more extensive than for the CA method and depends on field size, the typical calculation time for a 20×20 mm{sup 2} field on a 3.4 GHz and 8 GByte RAM processor remained below 15 minutes. Parallelisation and optimisation of the algorithm could lead to further significant calculation time reductions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Dose reconstruction for real-time patient-specific dose estimation in CT

Purpose: Many recent computed tomography (CT) dose reduction approaches belong to one of three categories: statistical reconstruction algorithms, efficient x-ray detectors, and optimized CT acquisition schemes with precise control over the x-ray distribution. The latter category could greatly benefit from fast and accurate methods for dose estimation, which would enable real-time patient-specific protocol optimization. Methods: The authors present a new method for volumetrically reconstructing absorbed dose on a per-voxel basis, directly from the actual CT images. The authors’ specific implementation combines a distance-driven pencil-beam approach to model the first-order x-ray interactions with a set of Gaussian convolution kernels to model the higher-order x-ray interactions. The authors performed a number of 3D simulation experiments comparing the proposed method to a Monte Carlo based ground truth. Results: The authors’ results indicate that the proposed approach offers a good trade-off between accuracy and computational efficiency. The images show a good qualitative correspondence to Monte Carlo estimates. Preliminary quantitative results show errors below 10%, except in bone regions, where the authors see a bigger model mismatch. The computational complexity is similar to that of a low-resolution filtered-backprojection algorithm. Conclusions: The authors present a method for analytic dose reconstruction in CT, similar to the techniques used in radiation therapy planning with megavoltage energies. Future work will include refinements of the proposed method to improve the accuracy as well as a more extensive validation study. The proposed method is not intended to replace methods that track individual x-ray photons, but the authors expect that it may prove useful in applications where real-time patient-specific dose estimation is required.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integration of Online Cross-Section Generation Capability with Depletion and Transient Solvers in Griffin

Griffin is a Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE)-based reactor multiphysics analysis application jointly developed by Argonne and Idaho National Laboratories under the DOENE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. In FY25, an online crosssection generation capability based on the Self-Shielding Application Programming Interface (SSAPI) was demonstrated for TRISO-fueled reactor problems under steady-state conditions. This fiscal year, that capability was extended to support depletion and transient multiphysics calculations, enabling high-fidelity analyses that generate self-shielded cross sections on the fly from the actual evolving composition and temperature states rather than from pre-tabulated libraries. For depletion, a two-way coupling was established in which SSAPI computes compact-averaged self-shielded cross sections that the depletion solver then uses to advance the Bateman equations, with the updated compositions returned to SSAPI at each step; the depletion module was refactored to support both library-based and SSAPI-based cross sections, and additional logic was added to track daughter isotopes and to exclude minor isotopes for efficiency. For transient analysis, the SSAPI multigroup library was extended with the kinetics data required for time-dependent calculations, the Improved Quasi-Static (IQS) scheme was coupled with SSAPI, and several supporting capabilities were implemented, including a self-shielding treatment that lets control rods and drums move within a self-shielded model, which had previously been impossible and had ruled out rod- and drum-movement transients with on-the-fly cross sections altogether, a new mixing scheme for delayed-neutron precursor decay constants, a checkpoint-based restart workflow, and performance improvements such as pointwise cross-section interpolation and the bypassing of unnecessary Dancoff factor calculations. The implemented capabilities were verified against Serpent Monte Carlo solutions. For depletion, a prismatic pin-cell problem based on a Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Very High Temperature Reactor benchmark showed excellent agreement, with eigenvalue differences within 200 pcm over the entire burnup range (up to 140 MWD/kgU) and fission-product and actinide inventories agreeing to within 0.8% and 2.5%, respectively; a heat-pipe microreactor assembly problem with a much higher fuel loading confirmed the same behavior and quantified the bias introduced when the multigroup equivalence effect is neglected. For transient analysis, a pin-cell problem with a step reactivity insertion and temperature feedback reproduced the analytically expected asymptotic power and showed close agreement between the direct and IQS solutions, and a two-dimensional microreactor core problem with control-drum rotation exercised the new moving-drum self-shielding treatment and demonstrated successful coupling of the online crosssection generation with both the direct and IQS transient methods. The capability was further exercised on a full-core pebble-bed problem, in which Griffin was coupled with the System Analysis Module (SAM) to simulate load-following operation of the gPBR with the Doppler feedback resolved at the TRISO fuel kernel temperature. These developments in Griffin provide a convenient, high-fidelity approach to cross-section generation for advanced thermal reactors with geometrically complex and highly heterogeneous configurations, including TRISO-fueled prismatic and pebble-bed systems, and support steady-state, depletion, and transient multiphysics calculations. They also enable self-shielded cross sections to be evaluated directly at the actual coupled state of the system, thereby establishing a foundation for high-fidelity, fully coupled multiphysics analysis of advanced reactors

Park, H.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A deformation-dependent coupled Lagrangian/semi-Lagrangian meshfree hydromechanical formulation for landslide modeling

Abstract The numerical modelling of natural disasters such as landslides presents several challenges for conventional mesh-based methods such as the finite element method (FEM) due to the presence of numerically challenging phenomena such as severe material deformation and fragmentation. In contrast, meshfree methods such as the reproducing kernel particle method (RKPM) possess unique features conducive to modelling extreme events such as the absence of a structured mesh and the ease of adaptive refinement, among others. While the semi-Lagrangian reproducing kernel (SL-RK) shape functions of RKPM defined in the current configuration have proven to be effective in extreme event modelling, the computational cost for the re-evaluation of the shape functions at every time step is costly. In this work, a deformation-dependent coupling of the Lagrangian reproducing kernel (L-RK) and SL-RK approximations is proposed for the solution of a hydro-mechanical formulation for effective simulations of landslides. The ramp function is constructed based on an equivalent plastic strain as a deformation-dependent transition from L-RK shape functions to SL-RK ones as the deformation progresses. The particular focus of the paper will be on modelling seepage-induced landslides with a mixed $$u$$ u – $$p$$ p formulation to couple the solid and fluid phases. Examples are presented to examine the effectiveness of this coupled Lagrangian/semi-Lagrangian reproducing kernel (L–SL RK) formulation and to highlight its performance in landslide modelling.

Baek, Jonghyuk↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of a CPU/GPU portable software library for Lagrangian–Eulerian simulations of liquid sprays

The Lagrangian–Eulerian method is widely used for simulations of fuel sprays in turbulent combustion because of the advantage of treating the spray droplets as discrete points. One challenge of the Lagrangian–Eulerian method is the intense computational requirement when tracking the large number of Lagrangian particles needed for high fidelity. We have developed a performance-portable library, Grit, to track the Lagrangian particles in parallel on central processing unit (CPU) and graphics processing unit (GPU) accelerated high performance computing (HPC) architectures. Grit is a C++ library which employs Message Passing Interface (MPI) for distributed memory parallelism and Kokkos programming model for on-node shared memory parallelism with performance portability across different architectures of GPUs and multi-core/manycore CPUs. The parallel algorithms, key parallel kernels, and their performances on the pre-exascale supercomputer, Summit, are presented. Grit is coupled with a direct numerical simulation (DNS) solver, S3D, for multiphase simulations. A conservative formulation has been developed and implemented in Grit for phase coupling with thermodynamic consistency. The formulation separates the conservation of mass, momentum and energy from the physical models to prevent accidental violation of conservation laws due to inconsistent models. The formulation also enforces consistent definitions of enthalpies of the fuel for both phases and the latent heat of evaporation. Finally, simulations of turbulent particle-laden flow and the evaporation of dilute turbulent spray jet are performed to verify the software implementation, and to demonstrate the scalability of Grit for large-scale multiphase simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

GenASiS Mathematics: Object-oriented manifolds, operations, and solvers for large-scale physics simulations (version 2)

We report GenASiS Mathematics provides modern Fortran classes furnishing extensible object-oriented functionality for the solution of fields governed by selected partial differential equations. The initial release included extensible object-oriented implementations of simple meshes and the evolution of generic conserved currents thereon. This revision - Version 2 of Mathematics - includes significant reorganization and streamlining of these classes, higher-order reconstruction by a different method, a Poisson solver, coarsening to avoid Courant time step limitations near coordinate singularities, and the offloading of computational kernels to GPUs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

NAMSA

In NAMSA, we introduce two main solutions to address the limitations of MSA-type algorithms for simulation of electron scattering/microscopy data: just-in-time compilation and work partitioning via MPI and GPU-to-GPU communication. First, the just-in-time (JIT) compilation strategy produces optimally tuned CUDA C++ kernels due to the data layout being perfectly known at runtime and compiled via calls from the Python interpreter. NAMSA automatically optimizes the 2-D FFT planning, and CUDA multi-streams scheduling/launching of probe simulations. With NAMSA, we can simulate electron scattering/microscopy on hundreds to thousands of GPUs, while removing the major limitations of memory and bandwidth from MSA.

Laanait, Nouamane↗
DOE OSTI2019

A top-down assessment using OMI NO 2 suggests an underestimate in the NO x emissions inventory in Seoul, South Korea, during KORUS-AQ

Abstract. In this work, we investigate the NO x emissions inventory inSeoul, South Korea, using a regional ozone monitoring instrument (OMI) NO 2 product derived from the standard NASA product. We first develop a regional OMI NO 2 product by recalculating the air mass factors using a high-resolution (4 km × 4 km) WRF-Chem model simulation, which better captures the NO 2 profile shapes in urban regions. We then apply a model-derived spatial averaging kernel to further downscale the retrieval and account for the subpixel variability. These two modifications yield OMI NO 2 values in the regional product that are1.37 times larger in the Seoul metropolitan region and >2 times larger near substantial point sources. These two modifications also yield an OMI NO 2 product that is in better agreement with the Pandora NO 2 spectrometer measurements acquired during the South Korea–United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) field campaign. NO x emissions are then derived for the Seoul metropolitan area during the KORUS-AQ field campaign using a top-down approach with the standard and regional NASA OMI NO 2 products. We first apply the top-down approach to a model simulation to ensure that the method is appropriate: the WRF-Chem simulation utilizing the bottom-up emissions inventory yields a NO x emissions rate of 227±94 kt yr –1 , while the bottom-up inventory itself within a 40 km radius of Seoul yields a NO x emissions rate of198 kt yr –1 . Using the top-down approach on the regional OMI NO 2 product, we derive the NO x emissions rate from Seoul to be 484±201 kt yr –1 , and a 353±146 kt yr –1 NO x emissions rate using the standard NASA OMI NO 2 product. This suggests an underestimate of 53 % and 36 % in the bottom-up inventory using the regional and standard NASA OMI NO 2 products respectively. To supplement this finding, we compare the NO 2 and NO y simulated by WRF-Chem to observations of the same quantity acquired by aircraft and find a model underestimate.When NO x emissions in the WRF-Chem model are increased by a factor of 2.13 in the Seoul metropolitan area, there is better agreement with KORUS-AQ aircraft observations and the recalculated OMI NO 2 tropospheric columns. Finally, we show that by using a WRF-Chem simulation with an updated emissions inventory to recalculate the air mass factor (AMF),there are small differences ( ~8 %) in OMI NO 2 compared tousing the original WRF-Chem simulation to derive the AMF. This suggests that changes in model resolution have a larger effect on the AMF calculation than modifications to the South Korean emissions inventory. Furthermore the current work is focused on South Korea using OMI, the methodology developed in this work can be applied to other world regions using TROPOMI and future satellite datasets (e.g., GEMS and TEMPO) to produce high-quality region-specific top-down NO x emissions estimates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2015

Numerical simulation of scattering of acoustic waves by inelastic bodies using hypersingular boundary integral equation

A numerical method for solving a problem of diffraction of acoustic waves by system of solid and thin objects based on the reduction the problem to a boundary integral equation in which the integral is understood in the sense of finite Hadamard value is proposed. To solve this equation we applied piecewise constant approximations and collocation methods numerical scheme. The difference between the constructed scheme and earlier known is in obtaining approximate analytical expressions to appearing system of linear equations coefficients by separating the main part of the kernel integral operator. The proposed numerical scheme is tested on the solution of the model problem of diffraction of an acoustic wave by inelastic sphere.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Emulation With Uncertainty Quantification of Regional Sea‐Level Change Caused by the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Abstract Projecting regional sea‐level change under various climate‐change scenarios typically involves running forward simulations of the Earth's gravitational, rotational and deformational (GRD) response to ice‐mass change, which requires substantial computational cost if applied to probabilistic frameworks requiring thousands to millions of samples. Here we build emulators of regional sea‐level change at 27 coastal locations, due to the GRD effects associated with future Antarctic Ice Sheet mass change over the 21st century. The emulators are evaluated against a numerical sea‐level model applied to an ensemble of ice‐sheet model simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through 2100. We build a physics‐based emulator using a recent sensitivity kernel approach and compare it to machine learning based emulators (neural network and conditional variational autoencoder methods). In order to quantify uncertainty, we derive well‐calibrated prediction intervals for regional sea‐level change via split‐conformal inference and linear regression, and show that Monte Carlo dropout does not yield well‐calibrated uncertainties in this instance. We also demonstrate substantial gains in computational efficiency using both the physics‐based emulator and neural networks in comparison to the numerical model for the complete regional sea‐level solution. Overall, we find the physics‐based emulator modestly outperforms the machine learning emulators for this problem.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗