Results for “scenario selection” — Page 15

DOE OSTI2026

Baseline vs. DER Scenario

Projections and associated uncertainty estimates are generated for a variety of user-selectable EV charging sessions, electricity tariffs, subsidy levels, revenue schemes, charging station configurations, and on-site solar and/or storage options. The outputs are presented in CHIP's web portal browser in the form of easily interpretable graphics (interactive graphs and bar charts) that facilitate convenient comparison among different scenarios to aid decision-making. The user should bring assumptions for modeling on simulation planning horizon, number of EV charging sessions per year, electricity costs (energy and demand charge rates; flat versus time-of-use rate), site capital costs (equipment for EV chargers and transformer), solar PV, and battery energy storage (kW).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Baseline vs. DER Scenario

Projections and associated uncertainty estimates are generated for a variety of user-selectable EV charging sessions, electricity tariffs, subsidy levels, revenue schemes, charging station configurations, and on-site solar and/or storage options. The outputs are presented in CHIP's web portal browser in the form of easily interpretable graphics (interactive graphs and bar charts) that facilitate convenient comparison among different scenarios to aid decision-making. The user should bring assumptions for modeling on simulation planning horizon, number of EV charging sessions per year, electricity costs (energy and demand charge rates; flat versus time-of-use rate), site capital costs (equipment for EV chargers and transformer), solar PV, and battery energy storage (kW).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Baseline vs. DER Scenario

Projections and associated uncertainty estimates are generated for a variety of user-selectable EV charging sessions, electricity tariffs, subsidy levels, revenue schemes, charging station configurations, and on-site solar and/or storage options. The outputs are presented in CHIP's web portal browser in the form of easily interpretable graphics (interactive graphs and bar charts) that facilitate convenient comparison among different scenarios to aid decision-making. The user should bring assumptions for modeling on simulation planning horizon, number of EV charging sessions per year, electricity costs (energy and demand charge rates; flat versus time-of-use rate), site capital costs (equipment for EV chargers and transformer), solar PV, and battery energy storage (kW).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Baseline vs. DER Scenario

Projections and associated uncertainty estimates are generated for a variety of user-selectable EV charging sessions, electricity tariffs, subsidy levels, revenue schemes, charging station configurations, and on-site solar and/or storage options. The outputs are presented in CHIP's web portal browser in the form of easily interpretable graphics (interactive graphs and bar charts) that facilitate convenient comparison among different scenarios to aid decision-making. The user should bring assumptions for modeling on simulation planning horizon, number of EV charging sessions per year, electricity costs (energy and demand charge rates; flat versus time-of-use rate), site capital costs (equipment for EV chargers and transformer), solar PV, and battery energy storage (kW).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Baseline vs. DER Scenario

Projections and associated uncertainty estimates are generated for a variety of user-selectable EV charging sessions, electricity tariffs, subsidy levels, revenue schemes, charging station configurations, and on-site solar and/or storage options. The outputs are presented in CHIP's web portal browser in the form of easily interpretable graphics (interactive graphs and bar charts) that facilitate convenient comparison among different scenarios to aid decision-making. The user should bring assumptions for modeling on simulation planning horizon, number of EV charging sessions per year, electricity costs (energy and demand charge rates; flat versus time-of-use rate), site capital costs (equipment for EV chargers and transformer), solar PV, and battery energy storage (kW).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Baseline vs. DER Scenario

Projections and associated uncertainty estimates are generated for a variety of user-selectable EV charging sessions, electricity tariffs, subsidy levels, revenue schemes, charging station configurations, and on-site solar and/or storage options. The outputs are presented in CHIP's web portal browser in the form of easily interpretable graphics (interactive graphs and bar charts) that facilitate convenient comparison among different scenarios to aid decision-making. The user should bring assumptions for modeling on simulation planning horizon, number of EV charging sessions per year, electricity costs (energy and demand charge rates; flat versus time-of-use rate), site capital costs (equipment for EV chargers and transformer), solar PV, and battery energy storage (kW).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Baseline vs. DER Scenario

Projections and associated uncertainty estimates are generated for a variety of user-selectable EV charging sessions, electricity tariffs, subsidy levels, revenue schemes, charging station configurations, and on-site solar and/or storage options. The outputs are presented in CHIP's web portal browser in the form of easily interpretable graphics (interactive graphs and bar charts) that facilitate convenient comparison among different scenarios to aid decision-making. The user should bring assumptions for modeling on simulation planning horizon, number of EV charging sessions per year, electricity costs (energy and demand charge rates; flat versus time-of-use rate), site capital costs (equipment for EV chargers and transformer), solar PV, and battery energy storage (kW).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Baseline vs. DER Scenario

Projections and associated uncertainty estimates are generated for a variety of user-selectable EV charging sessions, electricity tariffs, subsidy levels, revenue schemes, charging station configurations, and on-site solar and/or storage options. The outputs are presented in CHIP's web portal browser in the form of easily interpretable graphics (interactive graphs and bar charts) that facilitate convenient comparison among different scenarios to aid decision-making. The user should bring assumptions for modeling on simulation planning horizon, number of EV charging sessions per year, electricity costs (energy and demand charge rates; flat versus time-of-use rate), site capital costs (equipment for EV chargers and transformer), solar PV, and battery energy storage (kW).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparing quantile regression forest and mixture density long short-term memory models for probabilistic post-processing of satellite precipitation-driven streamflow simulations

Abstract. Deep learning (DL) and machine learning (ML) are widely used in hydrological modelling, which plays a critical role in improving the accuracy of hydrological predictions. However, the trade-off between model performance and computational cost has always been a challenge for hydrologists when selecting a suitable model, particularly for probabilistic post-processing with large ensemble members. This study aims to systematically compare the quantile regression forest (QRF) model and countable mixtures of asymmetric Laplacians long short-term memory (CMAL-LSTM) model as hydrological probabilistic post-processors. Specifically, we evaluate their ability in dealing with biased streamflow simulations driven by three satellite precipitation products across 522 nested sub-basins of the Yalong River basin in China. Model performance is comprehensively assessed using a series of scoring metrics from both probabilistic and deterministic perspectives. Our results show that the QRF model and the CMAL-LSTM model are comparable in terms of probabilistic prediction, and their performances are closely related to the flow accumulation area (FAA) of the sub-basin. The QRF model outperforms the CMAL-LSTM model in most sub-basins with smaller FAA, while the CMAL-LSTM model has an undebatable advantage in sub-basins with FAA larger than 60 000 km2 in the Yalong River basin. In terms of deterministic predictions, the CMAL-LSTM model is preferred, especially when the raw streamflow is poorly simulated and used as input. However, setting aside the differences in model performance, the QRF model with 100-member quantiles demonstrates a noteworthy advantage by exhibiting a 50 % reduction in computation time compared to the CMAL-LSTM model with the same ensemble members in all experiments. As a result, this study provides insights into model selection in hydrological post-processing and the trade-offs between model performance and computational efficiency. The findings highlight the importance of considering the specific application scenario, such as the catchment size and the required accuracy level, when selecting a suitable model for hydrological post-processing.

Geology↗

NASA NTRS2016

Launch Vehicle Selection and the Implementation of the Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission

Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) is a NASA-developed Earth science satellite currently mapping the soil moisture content and freeze/thaw state of Earth's land mass from a 685km, near-polar, sun-synchronous orbit. It was launched on January 31, 2015 from Vandenberg AFB upon a Delta II 7320 launch vehicle. Due to external considerations, SMAP's launch vehicle selection remained an open item until Project Critical Design Review (CDR). Thus, certain key aspects of the spacecraft design had to accommodate a diverse range of candidate launch vehicle environments, performance envelopes, interfaces and operational scenarios. Engineering challenges stemmed from two distinct scenarios: decisions that had to be made prior to launch vehicle selection to accommodate all possible outcomes, and post-selection changes constrained by schedule and the existing spacecraft configuration. The effects of the timing of launch vehicle selection reached virtually every aspect of the Observatory's design and development. Physical environments, mass allocations, material selections, propulsion system performance, dynamic response, launch phase and mission planning, overall size and configuration, and of course all interfaces to the launch vehicle were heavily dependent on this outcome. This paper will discuss the resolution of these technical challenges.

Sherman, Sarah↗

NASA NTRS1991

Asteroid exploration and utilization: The Hawking explorer

The Earth is nearing depletion of its natural resources at a time when human beings are rapidly expanding the frontiers of space. The resources which may exist on asteroids could have enormous potential for aiding and enhancing human space exploration as well as life on Earth. With the possibly limitless opportunities that exist, it is clear that asteroids are the next step for human existence in space. This report comprises the efforts of NEW WORLDS, Inc. to develop a comprehensive design for an asteroid exploration/sample return mission. This mission is a precursor to proof-of-concept missions that will investigate the validity of mining and materials processing on an asteroid. Project STONER (Systematic Transfer of Near Earth Resources) is based on two utilization scenarios: (1) moving an asteroid to an advantageous location for use by Earth; and (2) mining an asteroids and transporting raw materials back to Earth. The asteroid explorer/sample return mission is designed in the context of both scenarios and is the first phase of a long range plane for humans to utilize asteroid resources. The report concentrates specifically on the selection of the most promising asteroids for exploration and the development of an exploration scenario. Future utilization as well as subsystem requirements of an asteroid sample return probe are also addressed.

Carlson, Alan↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bringing solar to agriculture: An interdisciplinary design and analysis of a Concord grape agrivoltaic system

Agrivoltaics presents an opportunity to integrate solar photovoltaics (PV) with agricultural production, but crop-specific challenges and operational constraints remain underexplored. This study develops and evaluates a Concord grape agrivoltaic system in the Lake Erie American Viticulture Area, where vineyards face economic pressures and land use conflicts with solar development. Starting with vertical, tracking, and overhead PV systems, we model photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) reduction in grapevines and power generation losses from shading using the Agrivoltaic Radiation Tool (ART). Based on these results, which indicate 0.47 % annual grapevine PPFD loss for vertical designs, 1.6 % for tracking, and up to 25 % for the overhead systems, the vertical and tracking designs are selected for further computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis to evaluate airflow interactions. CFD results show that vertical panels do not significantly impact airflow through the grapevine canopy, and that tracking systems in horizontal position may enhance airflow compared to a vine-only scenario. Considering operational constraints for tracking systems, the vertical design is selected for an economic evaluation to reveal key financial outcomes for solar developers (14-year payback period) and growers ($408 reduction in financial losses per acre annually). A sensitivity analysis quantifies uncertainty in power generation (±8.8 %) and PPFD (±5.0 %), ensuring model robustness across different vineyard conditions. Furthermore, these findings provide quantitative evidence for the feasibility of Concord grape agrivoltaics, demonstrating a synergistic opportunity for dual-use solar while preserving cultural heritage in grape-growing regions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1992

An EVACS simulation with nested transactions

Documented here is the recent effort of the MISSION Kernel Team on an Extra-Vehicular Activity Control System (EVACS) simulation with nested transactions. The team has implemented the EVACS simulation along with a design for nested transactions. The EVACS simulation is a project wide aid to exploring Mission and Safety Critical (MASC) applications and their support software. For this effort it served as a trial scenario for demonstrating nested transactions and exercising the transaction support design. The EVACS simulation is a simulation of some aspects of the Extra-Vehicular Activity Control System, in particular, just the selection of communication frequencies. Its current definition is quite narrow, serving only as a starting point for prototyping purposes. (EVACS itself may be supplanted in a larger scenario of a lunar outpost with astronauts and a lunar rover.) Initially the simulation of frequency selection was written without consideration of nested transactions. This scenario was then modified to embed its processing in nested transactions. To simplify the prototyping effort, only two aspects of the general design for transaction support have been implemented: the basic architecture and state recovery. The simulation has been implemented in the programming language Smalltalk. It consists of three components: (1) a simulation support code which provides the framework for initiating, interacting and tracing the system; (2) the EVACS application code itself, including its calls upon nested transaction support; and (3) a transaction support code which implements the logic necessary for nested transactions. Each of these components deserves further description, but for now only the transaction support is discussed.

Auty, David↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Wildfires on Solar Resource Availability in California in a Changing Climate

Wildfires can emit large amounts of atmospheric particulate matters and influence not only air quality but also availability of photovoltaic (PV) generation due to scattering and absorption of solar radiation. Under anthropogenic changing climate, wildfire activity is projected to increase over western North America due to drier and warmer climate, implying increasing impact on solar resource and larger uncertainty in solar generation especially in regions with faster PV penetration. This study focuses on quantifying the impact of wildfires on aerosol optical depth (AOD) and thus solar resource over California using National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This assessment includes historical analysis and estimation of solar resource under wildfire scenarios (2020 wildfire and an enhanced wildfire scenario based on 2020 wildfires). Historical analysis for the period of July-October 2019/2020 (low/high fire activity period) shows that the averaged global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) are reduced by about 30 and 90 W m-2 (5.6 and 15.3%), respectively, during high fire activity period. To create AOD dataset for enhanced fire scenario, 165% increase in burn area (in around 2050) is selected based on comprehensive literature review, which is further applied to the Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN) fire emission. WRF-Chem model with the enhanced FINN emissions is used to simulate and represent a preserving spatial distribution of burned areas and wildfire-emitted aerosols. Our initial analysis suggests that the"enhanced 2020 wildfire" AOD can increase by a factor of 1.3 - 2, which can significantly reduce solar irradiance and increase uncertainty in generation and reliability of power system in extreme wildfire events under a high solar penetration scenario. Overall, this study provides an estimate of the impacts of wildfires on solar resource to make informed decisions on reserve planning, generation scheduling, and reliability investments.

aerosol optical depth↗

DOE OSTI2025

Meeting Global Health Needs via Infectious Disease Forecasting: Development of a Reliable Data-Driven Framework

Infectious diseases (IDs) have a significant detrimental impact on global health. Timely and accurate ID forecasting can result in more informed implementation of control measures and prevention policies. To meet the operational decision-making needs of real-world circumstances, we aimed to build a standardized, reliable, and trustworthy ID forecasting pipeline and visualization dashboard that is generalizable across a wide range of modeling techniques, IDs, and global locations. We forecasted 6 diverse, zoonotic diseases (brucellosis, campylobacteriosis, Middle East respiratory syndrome, Q fever, tick-borne encephalitis, and tularemia) across 4 continents and 8 countries. We included a wide range of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models (n=9) and trained them on a multitude of features (average n=2326) within the One Health landscape, including demography, landscape, climate, and socioeconomic factors. The pipeline and dashboard were created in consideration of crucial operational metrics—prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, spatiotemporal generalizability, uncertainty quantification, and interpretability—which are essential to strategic data-driven decisions. While no single best model was suitable for all disease, region, and country combinations, our ensemble technique selects the best-performing model for each given scenario to achieve the closest prediction. For new or emerging diseases in a region, the ensemble model can predict how the disease may behave in the new region using a pretrained model from a similar region with a history of that disease. The data visualization dashboard provides a clean interface of important analytical metrics, such as ID temporal patterns, forecasts, prediction uncertainties, and model feature importance across all geographic locations and disease combinations. As the need for real-time, operational ID forecasting capabilities increases, this standardized and automated platform for data collection, analysis, and reporting is a major step forward in enabling evidence-based public health decisions and policies for the prevention and mitigation of future ID outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1979

Manned remote work station development article. Volume 2: Simulation requirements. Appendix A: Open cherry picker development test articles specification

A manned remote work station (MRWS) mission scenario, broken down into the three time phases was selected as the basis for analysis of the MRWS flight article requirements and concepts. The mission roles for the three time phases, supporting tradeoff and evaluation studies, was used to identify key issues requiring simulation. The MRWS is discussed in terms of its capability to perform such operations as support of Spacelab experiments, servicing and repair of satellites, and construction. Future considerations for the use of the MRWS are also given.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1983

Sulfur trioxide in the lower atmosphere of Venus

Inconsistencies and ambiguities are noted by the present consideration of Pioneer Venus and Venera atmospheric composition measurement of Venus in the context of lower atmosphere thermodynamic equilibrium. Among the scenarios projected on the basis of assumed correctness for selected data subsets, the O2 and SO2 concentrations reported by the Pioneer Venus chromatograph and the H2O concentrations reported by Venera 11 suggest that large concentrations of SO3 are present in the lower atmosphere of Venus. Such SO3 concentrations lead, however, to difficulties in explaining the atmosphere at and above the cloud tops, and in addition require specific assumptions concerning chemical reaction rates at and near the surface.

Craig, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Materials processing in space

Processing-refining of raw materials from extraterrestrial sources is detailed for a space materials handling facility. The discussion is constrained to those steps necessary to separate desired components from raw or altered input ores, semi-purified feedstocks, or process scrap and convert the material into elements, alloys, and consumables. The materials are regarded as originating from dead satellites and boosters, lunar materials, and asteroids. Strong attention will be given to recycling reagent substances to avoid the necessity of transporting replacements. It is assumed that since no aqueous processes exist on the moon, the distribution of minerals will be homogeneous. The processing-refining scenario will include hydrochemical, pyrochemical, electrochemical, and physical techniques selected for the output mass rate/unit plant mass ratio. Flow charts of the various materials processing operations which could be performed with lunar materials are provided, noting the necessity of delivering several alloying elements from the earth due to scarcities on the moon.

Waldron, R. D.↗