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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

The JET hybrid scenario in Deuterium, Tritium and Deuterium-Tritium

The JET hybrid scenario has been developed from low plasma current carbon wall discharges to the record-breaking Deuterium-Tritium plasmas obtained in 2021 with the ITER-like Be/W wall. The development started in pure Deuterium with refinement of the plasma current, and toroidal magnetic field choices and succeeded in solving the heat load challenges arising from 37 MW of injected power in the ITER like wall environment, keeping the radiation in the edge and core controlled, avoiding MHD instabilities and reaching high neutron rates. The Deuterium hybrid plasmas have been re-run in Tritium and methods have been found to keep the radiation controlled but not at high fusion performance probably due to time constraints. For the first time this scenario has been run in Deuterium-Tritium (50:50). These plasmas were re-optimised to have a radiation-stable H-mode entry phase, good impurity control through edge T i gradient screening and optimised performance with fusion power exceeding 10 MW for longer than three alpha particle slow down times, 8.3 MW averaged over 5 s and fusion energy of 45.8 MJ.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modelling and experiment to stabilize disruptive tearing modes in the ITER baseline scenario in DIII-D

Abstract The achievement of high gain, stationary conditions in a tokamak scenario aimed at producing fusion energy in the ITER Project is crucial to the demonstration that this form of energy can be used in future reactors to provide cheap and clean energy globally. Disruptions are a challenge for the fusion energy field, in particular for the ‘ITER Baseline Scenario’ (IBS), as reproduced in the DIII-D tokamak. This work shows that a solution has been found for the m = 2/ n = 1 tearing modes that have consistently caused disruptions in the IBS: stable operation down to zero input torque was achieved by modifying the current density profile at the beginning of the pressure flattop and the ELM character later in the discharges, guided by previous results showing that the most likely cause of these instabilities is the current density profile. The coupling between sawteeth, n>2 modes and the 2/1 TMs is shown to not be statistically significant, nor the leading origin for the evolution towards instability. Ideal and resistive MHD modeling provide positive verification that a steeper ‘well’ in the region of the q = 2 rational surface leads to worse ideal stability, higher tearing index Δ’ and lower threshold Δ’ c for resistive instabilities, consistent with the experimental results. This provides confidence that the methods used in this work can be extrapolated to other devices and applied to avoid disruptions in ITER and pulsed fusion devices worldwide.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

TRANSP-TGLF core predictive modeling of the JET DT baseline scenario

In recent years, an intense modeling activity has been focused on preparing and analyzing the second JET Deuterium–Tritium (D–T) experimental campaign DTE2. Among the numerous scientific outcomes of this campaign was the unique opportunity to test and validate the state of the art of modeling tools with fusion-relevant DT plasmas using the full metallic ITER-like wall in different scenarios. This work reports on the core predictive modeling of plasma density, electron and ion temperatures (n e , T e , T i ) performed using TRANSP (Pankin et al 2025 Comput. Phys. Commun. 312 109611) coupled with Trapped Gyro-Landau Fluid (TGLF)-SAT2 (Kinsey et al 2008 Phys. Plasmas 15 055908), (Staebler et al 2021 Nucl. Fusion 61 116007) for the JET D–T baseline scenario (I p = 3.5 MA, q 95 = 3, β N < 2, with pellet pacing) (Garzotti et al 2025 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 67 075011). The sensitivity to different input parameters, as the $\vec{E}$ x $\vec{B}$ shear parameterization and the values of the kinetic quantities at the boundary of the prediction domain (ρ = 0.85) has been assessed, identifying the confidence interval of the prediction results. In particular, the dependence of the electron density profile on the particle source parameters has been studied, identifying the ionization source as the main cause for the density gradient under-prediction obtained by TRANSP-TGLF, reported in (Hyun-Tae et al 2023 Nucl. Fusion 63 112004).

JET↗
DOE OSTI2026

Time-dependent scenario modeling for the ST-E1 fusion power plant

ST-E1 is a low aspect ratio fusion power plant being designed by Tokamak Energy targeting 1.5 GW of fusion power. Characterization of the ST-E1 flat-top scenario is described elsewhere McNamara et al (2026 Nucl. Fusion 66 086008); here we focus on addressing the question of how to ramp-up the ST-E1 plasma from an initial state following breakdown and flux-surface formation to the target flat-top state. Being low-aspect ratio, the available solenoid flux of ST-E1 is limited. Therefore, particular consideration is placed on developing ramp-up scenarios that predominantly use inductive flux provided by external vertical field coils. Through time-dependent modeling with METIS, we show that this is possible when the ramp-up is performed at relatively high plasma density: although auxiliary current drive efficiency is reduced, this is significantly outweighed by (1) higher electron-ion collisional equilibration, (2) higher fusion power once ions become sufficiently hot, (3) higher poloidal beta for increased vertical-field flux, and (4) potentially favorable exhaust compatibilities. Ultimately, we show the target ST-E1 flat-top performance can be reached after a ramp-up period lasting 150 s using less than 40 Vs of solenoid flux (with vertical field providing ∼ 90 Vs of flux). The sensitivity to model assumptions are presented, with the general observation that deleterious effects can be mitigated through minor alterations of the auxiliary power temporal waveform and/or total auxiliary power level. The impact of a solenoid and the auxiliary power mix (electron cyclotron heating only versus electron and ion cyclotron heating) on the ST-E1 ramp-up success are also discussed in appendices. On this latter topic, we show that the effect of direct-ion heating during ramp-up is obscured by the uncertainty in the pedestal dynamics, identifying a clear line of future work required to make a definite decision on the ST-E1 auxiliary power mix.

current ramp-up↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scenario Exploration and Timeline Analysis for Advanced Reactors [Slides]

Slides created to discuss the report "Approach and Model Used to Represent a Timeline Analysis for Security Design Enhancements" (August 2022 INL/ RPT-22-68664) for an upcoming DOE security workshop. Advanced reactors will be able to use risk insights for many design aspects. We need realistic scenarios for input into the licensing basis safety-case. These scenarios must include timing and physics. We need to automate the safety-case creation as much as possible.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advanced Reactor Safeguards & Security Program: Cybersecurity Scenarios

The use of digital control systems and automation in advanced nuclear power systems introduces different types of vulnerabilities compared to legacy (i.e. analog) control systems that cyber adversaries can exploit. These vulnerabilities pose a challenge to reactor operators and cyber operations staff due to the dynamic nature of the event in which a human response or a lack of response can potentially evolve into a worsening plant condition. Using the Department of Homeland Security Cyber and Infrastructure Security Agency’s (CISA) critical infrastructure exercise framework, this document presents several cyber security scenarios typical of digital control systems that could be used in advanced reactor designs. These scenarios can be used in tabletop exercises to evaluate cyber security posture or conduct training on different aspects of cyber security, including detection, threat hunting using indicators of compromise, evaluating incident response, risk mitigation, incident reporting, information sharing and recovery.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Electrification Futures Study Supply-Side Scenarios Report Figure Data

The file includes the data for figures in the Electrification Futures Study Supply-Side Scenarios report. Additional information on the data can be found in the report: Murphy, Caitlin, Trieu Mai, Yinong Sun, Paige Jadun, Matteo Muratori, Brent Nelson, and Ryan Jones. 2021. Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution and Infrastructure Development for the United States. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-72330. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/72330.pdf.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2013

An Outburst Scenario for the X-ray Spectral Variability in 3C 111

We present a combined Suzaku and Swift BAT broad-band E=0.6-200 keV spectral analysis of three 3C 111 observations obtained in 2010. The data are well described with an absorbed power-law continuum and a weak (R approximately equal to 0.2) cold reflection component from distant material. We constrain the continuum cutoff at E(sub C) approximately equal to 150- 200 keV, which is in accordance with X-ray Comptonization corona models and supports claims that the jet emission is only dominant at much higher energies. Fe XXVI Ly alpha emission and absorption lines are also present in the first and second observations, respectively. The modelling and interpretation of the emission line is complex and we explore three possibilities. If originating from ionized disc reflection, this should be emitted at r(sub in) greater than or equal to 50 r(sub g) or, in the lamp-post configuration, the illuminating source should be at a height of h greater than or equal to 30 r(sub g) over the black hole. Alternatively, the line could be modeled with a hot collisionally ionized plasma with temperature kT = 22.0(sup +6.1)(sub −3.2) keV or a photo-ionized plasma with logXi=4.52(sup +0.10)(sub −0.16) erg per second cm, and column density N(sub H) greater than 3×10(sup 23) per square centimeter. However, the first and second scenarios are less favored on statistical and physical grounds, respectively. The blue-shifted absorption line in the second observation can be modelled as an ultra-fast outflow (UFO) with ionization parameter logXi=4.47(sup +0.76) (sub −0.04) erg per second cm, column density NH=(5.3(sup +1.8)(sub −1.3))×10(sup 22) per square centimeter and outflow velocity v(sub out) = 0.104+/-0.006c. Interestingly, the parameters of the photoionized emission model remarkably match those of the absorbing UFO, supporting the possibility that the same material could be responsible for both emission and absorption. We suggest an outburst scenario in which an accretion disc wind, initially lying out of the line of sight and observed in emission, then crosses our view to the source and it is observed in absorption as a mildly-relativistic UFO.

Outburst↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Computational Study of Plume Modeling for Space Launch System Abort Scenarios

A series of viscous CFD simulations depicting Space Launch System (SLS) post Mode-1abort scenarios are conducted and analyzed. The primary purpose of these simulations is to study the effect of launch abort vehicle attitude control motor (ACM) and abort motor(AM) plume modeling fidelity on the drag of the aborted core stage. The simulations are first conducted with a fully-coupled, multi-species and chemically reacting model for the freestream gases and the solid rocket abort motor combustion products. Following this, equivalent species are created for the ACM and AM exhaust gases. These equivalent species aim to provide near the same results for core stage drag as the chemically reacting model at a significantly lower computational cost. Finally, the exhaust gases are modeled as calorically perfect air. It was concluded that under most scenarios, both the equivalent species and the perfect air models predict the drag of the aborted core stage sufficiently close to that predicted by the chemically reacting simulations. In these cases, the flow and geometry conditions did not induce significant changes in the composition of the ‘true’ exhaust gas via afterburning of the combustion products. For cases where this was not the case, the properties of the essentially frozen equivalent species and perfect air models deviated from the true mixture, yielding unsatisfactory results. Finally, the accuracy improvements by using the chemically reacting model are weighed against the significant increase in associated computational costs. It was found that the simplified exhaust gas models are at least 4 times less expensive than the chemically reacting model. This may justify the judicious use of these simple models in future work.

CFD↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Computational Study of Plume Modeling for Space Launch System Abort Scenarios

A series of viscous CFD simulations depicting Space Launch System (SLS) post Mode-1abort scenarios are conducted and analyzed. The primary purpose of these simulations is to study the effect of launch abort vehicle attitude control motor (ACM) and abort motor(AM) plume modeling fidelity on the drag of the aborted core stage. The simulations are first conducted with a fully-coupled, multi-species and chemically reacting model for the freestream gases and the solid rocket abort motor combustion products. Following this, equivalent species are created for the ACM and AM exhaust gases. These equivalent species aim to provide near the same results for core stage drag as the chemically reacting model at a significantly lower computational cost. Finally, the exhaust gases are modeled as calorically perfect air. It was concluded that under most scenarios, both the equivalent species and the perfect air models predict the drag of the aborted core stage sufficiently close to that predicted by the chemically reacting simulations. In these cases, the flow and geometry conditions did not induce significant changes in the composition of the ‘true’ exhaust gas via afterburning of the combustion products. For cases where this was not the case, the properties of the essentially frozen equivalent species and perfect air models deviated from the true mixture, yielding unsatisfactory results. Finally, the accuracy improvements by using the chemically reacting model are weighed against the significant increase in associated computational costs. It was found that the simplified exhaust gas models are at least 4 times less expensive than the chemically reacting model. This may justify the judicious use of these simple models in future work.

CFD↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of Space Mission Integrated Operations Scenarios

Integrated Operations Scenarios (IOS) describe nominal operations planned for a space mission. Operational scenarios are key to an operations concept, as they help identify issues and drivers on the operations system. This paper covers the tools, processes, and inputs that feed into an IOS product, and how IOS iterations during a mission lifecycle can buy down operational risks. A case used for this paper is nominal operations for an initial crewed Artemis mission that includes cross-program sequence of tasks required to accomplish end to end functions from launch through transit, on-orbit operations, to safely return to Earth. An IOS product serves as a reference for discussions during requirements development, task and risk analyses, concept of operations development, and as foundation to prepare space mission flight plans.

integrated operations scenarios↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bioeconomy Scenario Analysis

The Bioeconomy Scenario Analysis project has shed light on system interactions within the biomass-to-biofuel supply chain for the past 15 years. This presentation highlights recent analyses on investment and policy scenarios for sustainable aviation fuel, the economic and policy considerations for the historical buildout of the starch ethanol industry, and the potential impact of U.S. Department of Energy investment in bioenergy R&D.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Presentation: Scenario Timeline Exploration

Slides to discuss a current project with DOE. Topic focus is on: - Advanced reactors will be able to use risk insights for many design aspects - We need bounding scenarios for screening and scoping purposes - We need realistic scenarios for input into the licensing basis safety-case - We need to manage inherent uncertainty - We need to automate the safety-case creation as much as possible

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scenarios for Future Energy Systems

Energy systems in the U.S. and globally have continuously changed and expanded over the past 200 years, from animal and biomass based energy to electricity and petroleum for heat, light, transportation, and industries of all kinds. The most recent two decades have experienced a significant increase in the use of natural gas, solar, and wind energy, as well as energy efficiency, due to both technology breakthroughs and public policy. With history as a guide, we can expect on-going transformation of our energy system in future decades, including increased electrification and advanced energy technologies, ideally helping meet societal goals of reducing pollution, improving quality of human life, and preserving ecosystems. Scenario modeling is an important tool for planning energy system transformations toward specific goals - such as net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, 100% renewable energy, or energy security - particularly when there are multiple options, conflicting objectives, and significant unknowns about a path forward. This presentation will review the history of energy transitions and the future policy and societal objectives on energy. Then it will summarize multiple scenario studies of future energy systems, with a focus on "100% studies" and the challenges to meeting those objectives. It will also outline of a few of the technologies being researched now that could advance the ongoing energy transition.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY,↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bioeconomy Scenario Analysis

The Bioeconomy Scenario Analysis (BSA) project uses systems thinking and analysis to assess how techno economics, research and development, deployment strategies, policy, and market conditions affect the potential development trajectories of the developing bioenergy industry. This project informs researchers, decision makers, and industry by identifying opportunities for and constraints to industrial development and quantifying important industry metrics (e.g., energy, economic, environmental) towards a sustainable domestic bioenergy system. One of the tools used in this project, the Bioenergy Scenario Model (BSM) is a publicly-available, unique, validated, state-of-the-art, award-winning, fourth-generation model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on how and under what conditions biofuel technologies might be deployed to contribute to the U.S. transportation energy sector. Analysis products from this effort enable the development of the bioenergy industry by (1) encouraging policy-makers to explore multiple levers simulating outside impacts on biofuels production, identifying policy actions; (2) improving industry's understanding of growth potential under different market conditions, better targeting their development efforts; and (3) providing universities and other interested stakeholders with analysis tools and analyses that can be adapted to meet research and teaching objectives, thus connecting students with careers that build the industry.

bioenergy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Supply Chain Energy and Greenhouse Gas Analysis Using the Materials Flows Through Industry (MFI) Tool: Examination of Alternative Technology Scenarios for the U.S. Chemical Sector

Chemical manufacturing is a large and diverse sector of the U.S. economy, with products, fuels, and a wide assortment of materials used daily by both the public and businesses. Currently, several of the largest volume chemicals produced in the United States rely on fossil fuels as a feedstock, energy source, or both. The list of chemicals includes steam cracking products such as ethylene, propylene, benzene, and xylenes as well as products such as ammonia and methanol. The focus for this work is on platform chemicals that are both produced in the largest volume and have a high potential for subsequent processing into more specialized products. In this study, we explore several new pathways that reduce the overall energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for each product. These pathways include energy efficiency measures applied to existing production methods, the use of bio‐based fuels and/or feedstocks as new production methods, and electrification of high‐energy‐input stages within current production methods. Scenarios for energy demand and GHG reduction were conducted with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Materials Flows through Industry tool. Projections of the energy demand and GHG emissions in 2030 and 2050 are included, using grid composition projections from the NREL ReEDS model. The alternative scenarios selected showcase the effect of realistic changes the industry could make, focusing on technologies with a high level of technical readiness.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning to predict biomass sorghum yields under future climate scenarios

Crop yield modeling is critical in the design of national strategies for agricultural production, particularly in the context of a changing climate. Forecasting yields of bioenergy crops at fine spatial resolutions can help to evaluate near-term and long-term pathways for scaling up bio-based fuel and chemical production, and for understanding the impacts of abiotic stressors such as severe droughts and temperature extremes on potential biomass supply. In this work we used a large dataset of 28,364 Sorghum bicolor yield samples (uniquely identified by county and year of observation), environmental variables, and multiple approaches to analyze historical trends in sorghum productivity across the USA. We selected the most accurate machine learning approach (a variation of the random forest approach) to predict future trends in sorghum yields under four greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios and two irrigation regimes. We identified irrigation practices, vapor pressure deficit, and time (a proxy for technological improvement) as the most important predictors of sorghum productivity. Our results showed a decreasing trend of sorghum yields over future years (on average 2.7% from 2018 to 2099), with greater decline under a high GHG emissions scenario (3.8%) and in the absence of irrigation (4.6%). Geographically, we observed the steepest predicted declines in the Great Lakes (8.2%), Upper Midwest (7.5%), and Heartland (6.7%) regions. Our study demonstrates the use of machine learning to identify environmental controllers of sorghum biomass yield and predict yields with reasonable accuracy. These results can inform the development of more realistic biomass supply projections for bioenergy if sorghum production is scaled up. (c) 2020 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗