Results for “risk objectives” — Page 15

NASA NTRS2017

NASA's Optical Program on Ascension Island: Bringing MCAT to Life as the Eugene Stansbery-Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (ES-MCAT)

In June 2015, the construction of the Meter Class Autonomous Telescope was completed and MCAT saw the light of the stars for the first time. In 2017, MCAT was newly dedicated as the Eugene Stansbery-MCAT telescope by NASA's Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO), in honor of his inspiration and dedication to this newest optical member of the NASA ODPO. Since that time, MCAT has viewed the skies with one engineering camera and two scientific cameras, and the ODPO optical team has begun the process of vetting the entire system. The full system vetting includes verification and validation of: (1) the hardware comprising the system (e.g. the telescopes and its instruments, the dome, weather systems, all-sky camera, FLIR cloud infrared camera, etc.), (2) the custom-written Observatory Control System (OCS) master software designed to autonomously control this complex system of instruments, each with its own control software, and (3) the custom written Orbital Debris Processing software for post-processing the data. ES-MCAT is now capable of autonomous observing to include Geosynchronous survey, TLE (Two-line element) tracking of individual catalogued debris at all orbital regimes (Low-Earth Orbit all the way to Geosynchronous (GEO) orbit), tracking at specified non-sidereal rates, as well as sidereal rates for proper calibration with standard stars. Ultimately, the data will be used for validation of NASA's Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM, which aids in engineering designs of spacecraft that require knowledge of the orbital debris environment and long-term risks for collisions with Resident Space Objects (RSOs).

Lederer, S. M.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Assessing GEO and LEO Repeating Conjunctions Using High Fidelity Brute Force Monte Carlo Simulations

Probability of collision (P(sub c)) estimates for Earth-orbiting satellites typically assume a temporally-isolated conjunction event. However, under certain conditions two objects may experience multiple high-risk close approach events over the course of hours or days. In these repeating conjunction cases, the P(sub c) accumulates as each successive encounter occurs. The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis team has updated its “brute force Monte Carlo” (BFMC) software to estimate such accumulating P(sub c) values for repeating conjunctions. This study describes the updated BFMC algorithm and discusses the implications for conjunction risk assessment.

Baars, Luis↗

NASA NTRS2019

Assessing Geo and Leo Repeating Conjunctions Using High Fidelity Brute Force Monte Carlo Simulations

Probability of collision (P(sub c)) estimates for Earth-orbiting satellites typically assume a temporally-isolated conjunction event. However, under certain conditions two objects may experience multiple high-risk close approach events over the course of hours or days. In these repeating conjunction cases, the P(sub c) accumulates as each successive encounter occurs. The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis team has updated its “brute force Monte Carlo” (BFMC) software to estimate such accumulating P(sub c) values for repeating conjunctions. This study describes the updated BFMC algorithm and discusses the implications for conjunction risk assessment.

Baars, Luis↗

NASA NTRS2015

Radiant Heating Tests on Meteoritic Material

A new effort geared toward modeling the physics of meteor entry and break-up is underway at NASA Ames Research Center. This is part of a broader interdisciplinary effort on providing physics-based risk assessment models for potentially hazardous objects. As part of the entry modeling task we are seeking to improve our understanding of, among other things, the ablation of meteoric material during high speed entry into earths atmosphere. Meteoroid entry differs greatly in some key respects from spacecraft entry modeling. First, the aerothermal environment at these high velocities (18 km/s) is dominated by radiation. Second, meteoroids less than, say, 50m in size, will likely lose a significant portion of their mass during the high-speed atmospheric entry process due to vaporization as well as melting and spallation. The mass of the object, in turn, directly affects the amount of energy deposited in the atmosphere, and therefore the amount of damage done. Thus it is important for us to understand and be able to model this process in greater detail in order to assess the hazard posed by these objects.In this presentation, we first give an overview of the simple ablation models that are typically used in meteor entry calculations. Additionally, we will present a new model which utilizes a similar approach to what is typically done for spacecraft TPS response modeling. This uses an equilibrium assumption near the surface to compute the ablation rate, as is done in heritage material response codes. Next we describe the radiant heating experiment which uses a high-powered laser to emulate the radiation dominated heating environment experienced by meteoroids during atmospheric entry. The facility the Laser Hardened Material Evaluation Laboratory (LHMEL) permits us to expose samples of meteoritic material to heating rates in excess of 100kW/sq.cm. An overview of the experimental set-up and test plan for the initial exploratory campaign at this facility will be given. Then we present both qualitative and quantitative results from this initial test series. Comparisons between predicted and measured ablation rates suggest that there may be significant blockage of the incident beam by the ablation plume. Furthermore, melt is shown to be a significant ablation mechanics, even at high heating rates (16 kW/sq.cm). Finally, comparisons between the phenomenology of the ablation of terrestrial rocks namely, basalt -- to that of meteorites show very different behavior. This is shown to likely be due in part to the effect of composition on the melt viscosity.

Stern, Eric↗

NASA NTRS2020

Enabling Space Exploration Medical System Development Using a Tool Ecosystem

The NASA Human Research Program’s (HRP) Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element is utilizing a Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) approach to enhance the development of systems engineering products that will be used to advance medical system designs for exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit. In support of future missions, the team is capturing content such as system behaviors, functional decompositions, architecture, system requirements and interfaces, and recommendations for clinical capabilities and resources in Systems Modeling Language (SysML) models. As these products mature, SysML models provide a way for ExMC to capture relationships among the various products, which includes supporting more integrated and multi-faceted views of future medical systems. In addition to using SysML models, HRP and ExMC are developing supplementary tools to support two key functions: 1) prioritizing current and future research activities for exploration missions in an objective manner; and 2) enabling risk-informed and evidence-based trade space analysis for future space vehicles, missions, and systems. This paper will discuss the long-term HRP and ExMC vision for the larger ecosystem of tools, which include dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) capabilities, additional SysML models, a database of system component options, and data visualizations. It also includes a review of an initial Pilot Project focused on enabling medical system trade studies utilizing data that is coordinated across tools for consistent outputs (e.g., mission risk metrics that are associated with medical system mass values and medical conditions addressed). This first Pilot Project demonstrated successful operating procedures and integration across tools. Finally, the paper will also cover a second Pilot Project that utilizes tool enhancements such as medical system optimization capabilities, post-processing, and visualization of generated data for subject matter expert review, and increased integration amongst the tools themselves.

Amador, Jennifer R.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Enabling Space Exploration Medical System Development Using a Tool Ecosystem

The NASA Human Research Program's (HRP) Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element is utilizing a Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) approach to enhance the development of systems engineering products that will be used to advance medical system designs for exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit. In support of future missions, the team is capturing content such as system behaviors, functional decompositions, architecture, system requirements and interfaces, and recommendations for clinical capabilities and resources in Systems Modeling Language (SysML) models. As these products mature, SysML models provide a way for ExMC to capture relationships among the various products, which includes supporting more integrated and multi-faceted views of future medical systems. In addition to using SysML models, HRP and ExMC are developing supplementary tools to support two key functions: 1) prioritizing current and future research activities for exploration missions in an objective manner; and 2) enabling risk-informed and evidence-based trade space analysis for future space vehicles, missions, and systems. This paper will discuss the long-term HRP and ExMC vision for the larger ecosystem of tools, which include dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) capabilities, additional SysML models, a database of system component options, and data visualizations. It also includes a review of an initial Pilot Project focused on enabling medical system trade studies utilizing data that is coordinated across tools for consistent outputs (e.g., mission risk metrics that are associated with medical system mass values and medical conditions addressed). This first Pilot Project demonstrated successful operating procedures and integration across tools. Finally, the paper will also cover a second Pilot Project that utilizes tool enhancements such as medical system optimization capabilities, post-processing, and visualization of generated data for subject matter expert review, and increased integration amongst the tools themselves.

Amador, Jennifer R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-14096-DND

This technology development was initiated during NASA Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) funded Laser Risk Reduction Program (LRRP) with the objective to develop a Thulium (Tm) fiber laser pumped Holmium (Ho) solid-state laser that generates laser pulses in the 2?m wavelength for pulsed CO2 DIAL/IPDA instrument. The key performance characteristics of this laser, such as energy, pulse repetition rate, pulse width, efficiency, frequency accuracy and stability, will meet or exceed the needs of the NASA Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Night, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) transmitter as currently envisioned. This space qualifiable laser architecture utilizes fiber laser and solid-state crystal laser technologies. One of the outstanding properties of the fiber laser is its efficiency. However, it inherently has low damage threshold at high energy pulses. On the other hand, the solid state laser has the capability to produce Joule-level energy at 2?m wavelength. The proposed laser combines the advantages of both lasers to provide the desired energy with high efficiency.

Upendra N Singh↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Lunar Landing and Launch Pad Construction – Concepts and Criteria

When a lander vehicle launches or lands on the Moon, the rocket engine exhaust plume impinges on the surface and interacts with the regolith to create blast ejecta and associated cratering of the surface. Lunar regolith blast ejecta travels at high velocities (>2,000 m/s) for long distances (kilometers) in a vacuum environment [1] creating hazards for surrounding assets and it can also impact the bottom of the lander vehicle, risking damage to the engines, thermal insulation and sensors. Ballistic particles can possibly enter cislunar space and achieve orbit as debris, if the ejecta is sufficiently energetic. The cratering and regolith erosion can endanger the vehicle itself by affecting the soil stability under the landing gear. Landing on unpredictable terrain with varying topography, natural craters and rock hazards is also hazardous risks tipping a lander at dangerous angles in extreme conditions that may also violate maximum slope angles for subsequent launch operations. During launch (Figure 1), an overpressure pulse created by the ignition of the rocket engines can pose significant ejecta risks to the vehicle. Dust clouds raised during landing limit the efficacy of sensors and reduce visibility for the astronaut pilots, creating significant real-time risk during landing site selection by the pilot or computer navigation system. Future lunar spaceports will require mitigations to these launch and landing risks [2]. There are four main objectives of this effort:1) To establish the state of the art in LLP construction methodologies. 2) To propose criteria for trade studies of LLP concepts. 3) To publicly share the authors’ ideas for potential LLP solutions. 4) To serve as the starting point for future development of LLP technologies. Establishing the state of the art in the area of off-Earth Launch & Landing Pad concepts will base-line the work that has been completed thus far and highlight the wide span between current Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs)and operational readiness. The authors aim to communicate the need for funding in this area in the near term by illustrating that there is much work to be completed before a truly viable option exists. Setting forth criteria for trade studies of LLP concepts is important for several reasons. The first and most straightforward is to establish a framework for performing trade studies on LLP concepts. This will enable NASA to select the most promising concepts for continued development, and it will also help technology developers understand how their concepts compare with others and the priorities of development effort.

landing pad↗

NASA NTRS2000

The Deep Space 1 Extended Mission

The primary mission of Deep Space 1 (DS1), the first flight of the New Millennium program, completed successfully in September 1999, having exceeded its objectives of testing new, high-risk technologies important for future space and Earth science missions.

Deep↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of Transient Spacecraft Refueling Model with Gateway Breadboard Test Data

The ability to refuel spacecraft on-orbit is a key enabling technology for deep space human exploration. On-orbit refueling requires priming a pressurized liquid propellant from a source tank into fluid transfer lines at vacuum conditions, which could result in excessive surge pressures beyond the system’s qualified operating limits and potentially damage hardware. Therefore, it is imperative to employ numerical models during the development of flight hardware to parametrically characterize system performance over a wide range of operating conditions. Since priming transients are difficult to model accurately, it is important to validate those models with test data. As part of the Gateway bipropellant refueling system development, a simplified fluidic breadboard system was created using water as a simulant for fuel to support early program risk reduction of refueling operations. The objectives of breadboard testing were to gather performance data to characterize and demonstrate critical refueling operations and to validate numerical models that can be extended to predicting flight system performance. A description of the breadboard test system and the results of numerical model validation is presented. The model is shown to have very good agreement with test data.

Brian S Lusby↗

NASA NTRS2022

Ten Years of VIIRS On-Orbit Geolocation Calibration and Performance

The first innovative Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensor aboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite has been in operation for 10 years since its launch on 28 October 2011. The second VIIRS sensor aboard the first Join Polar Satellite System (JPSS-1) satellite has been in operation for 4 years since its launch on 18 November 2017, which became NOAA-20. Well-geolocated and radiometrically calibrated Level-1 sensor data records (SDRs) from VIIRS are crucial to numerical weather prediction (NWP) and Level-2+ environmental data record (EDR) algorithms and products. The high quality of Level-2+ EDRs is a requirement for the continuity of NASA Earth science data records (ESDRs) and climate data records (CDRs), one of the two objectives of the SNPP mission and one of the three elements in the JPSS mission objective. The other objective of the SNPP mission is risk reduction for the follow-on JPSS missions. This paper summarizes the on-orbit geolocation calibration and validation (Cal/Val) activities for both VIIRS sensors onboard SNPP and NOAA-20 in the past 10 years. These activities include nominal geolocation Cal/Val activities, risk reduction activities, and improvements for the on-orbit VIIRS sensor operations. After these activities, sub-pixel geolocation accuracy is achieved. Nadir equivalent geolocation uncertainty is generally within 75 m (1-σ), or 20% imagery band pixels, in either the along-scan or along-track direction for both SNPP and NOAA-20 VIIRS sensors. The worst 16-day measured geolocation errors (radial, 3-σ) are 280 m and 267 m, respectively, in the latest SNPP and NOAA-20 VIIRS data collections, which are better than the required accuracy of 375 m (radial, 3-σ). The risk reduction activities also improved VIIRS builds for JPSS-3 and JPSS-4 satellites, and provide lessons learned for other VIIRS-like sensor builds.

VIIRS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of Transient Spacecraft Refueling Model with Gateway Breadboard Test Data

The ability to refuel spacecraft on-orbit is a key enabling technology for deep space human exploration. On-orbit refueling requires priming a pressurized liquid propellant from a source tank into fluid transfer lines at vacuum conditions, which could result in excessive surge pressures beyond the system’s qualified operating limits and potentially damage hardware. Another source of potentially damaging surge pressures is the water hammer transient that occurs when the isolation valves are closed to pause or end the refueling operation. Therefore, it is imperative to employ numerical models during the development of flight hardware to parametrically characterize system performance over a wide range of operating conditions to minimize the risk of exceeding pressure limits during flight. Since rapid pressure transients can be difficult to model accurately, it is important to validate those models with test data. As part of the Gateway bipropellant refueling system development, a simplified fluidic breadboard system was created using water as a simulant for fuel to support early program risk reduction of refueling operations. The objectives of breadboard testing were to gather performance data to characterize and demonstrate critical refueling operations and to validate numerical models that can be extended to predicting flight system performance. A description of the breadboard test article and the results of numerical model validation is presented. The model is shown to have very good agreement with test data.

Refueling↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Viability of See and Avoid for Urban Air Mobility Operations

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is an emerging aviation concept that could supplement today’s ground and air transportation systems. For UAM, it is generally assumed that the private sector will manage separation and not rely on the Federal Aviation Administration air traffic control system. To date, discussions of initial operations focus on using the visual abilities of the pilot to “see and avoid” (SAA) other aircraft. Decades of research on SAA has demonstrated that it is inadequate for reliable detection of aircraft that might pose a collision risk. The literature on multi-object tracking is also reviewed for findings on how well humans can visually track objects. The research shows that humans have limited resources for tracking and that this may be affected by object characteristics and cognitive skills. The conclusion is that SAA is a risky method for avoiding midair collisions. It is recommended that flight deck displays and automated collision avoidance systems be implemented for all UAM aircraft at the outset of their introduction.

urban air mobility↗

NASA NTRS2023

Closed Environment Air Revitalization System Based on Metal Organic Framework Adsorbents

This project utilized a systems engineering methodology to develop a vacuum swing adsorption system with full Labview automated control. The project was successful and provided students with an introduction to systems engineering and air revitalization. Specifically, two stainless steel adsorption beds were custom designed and manufactured and a sequence of computer controlled valves were used to deliver CO 2 laden, humid air, to the adsorbent where the CO 2 was removed from the air stream. Runs were completed using 13X zeolite and bed timing and switching was controlled by the computer based on the data output of a CO 2 detector. Adsorption runs using the MOF have not been completed upon the writing of this report; however, the MOF material is currently being synthesized and the runs will be completed upon receipt of the material. A follow up meeting with NASA has been tentatively planned to discuss the output of these experiments. Consistent with systems engineering practice, an end of project assessment of the class was conducted with the students and several items were realized. Specifically, the short period of performance of this grant makes it necessary to maintain a narrowly focused scope on the project such that multiple experiments after systems development (T&E) need to be limited to ensure timely completion of the proposed tasks. Also, procurement of parts may need to be moved forward in time to allow for delivery delays, and it may be necessary to request SDR, PDR, and CDR dates from NASA that are ahead of the NASA anticipated schedule. These types of lessons provided valuable to both the PI and the students and ultimately illustrate the necessity of proper systems engineering schedule risk assessment. The class met the objectives of the project and provided an introduction to systems engineering to undergraduate students. As a metric of that success, the lead engineer of the undergraduate design team acquired a job with an aerospace defense contractor, which he attributed to his knowledge of systems engineering concepts that were acquired via the X-Hab class.

T. Grant Glover↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Viability of See-and-Avoid for Midair Collision Avoidance for UAM

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is an emerging aviation concept that could supplement today’s ground and air transportation systems. For UAM, it is generally assumed that the private sector will manage separation and not rely on the Federal Aviation Administration air traffic control system. To date, discussions of initial operations focus on using the visual abilities of the pilot to “see and avoid” (SAA) other aircraft. Decades of research on SAA has demonstrated that it is inadequate for reliable detection of aircraft that might pose a collision risk. The literature on multi-object tracking is also reviewed for findings on how well humans can visually track objects. The research shows that humans have limited resources for tracking and that this may be affected by object characteristics and cognitive skills. The conclusion is that SAA is a risky method for avoiding midair collisions. It is recommended that flight deck displays and automated collision avoidance systems be implemented for all UAM aircraft at the outset of their introduction.

urban air mobility↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Viability of See-and-Avoid for Midair Collision Avoidance for Urban Air Mobility (UAM)

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is an emerging aviation concept that could supplement today’s ground and air transportation systems. For UAM, it is generally assumed that the private sector will manage separation and not rely on the Federal Aviation Administration air traffic control system. To date, discussions of initial operations focus on using the visual abilities of the pilot to “see and avoid” (SAA) other aircraft. Decades of research on SAA has demonstrated that it is inadequate for reliable detection of aircraft that might pose a collision risk. The literature on multi-object tracking is also reviewed for findings on how well humans can visually track objects. The research shows that humans have limited resources for tracking and that this may be affected by object characteristics and cognitive skills. The conclusion is that SAA is a risky method for avoiding midair collisions. It is recommended that flight deck displays and automated collision avoidance systems be implemented for all UAM aircraft at the outset of their introduction.

urban air mobility↗

NASA NTRS2023

The Viability of See-and-Avoid for Urban Air Mobility Operations

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is an emerging aviation concept that could supplement today’s ground and air transportation systems. For UAM, it is generally assumed that the private sector will manage separation and not rely on the Federal Aviation Administration air traffic control system. To date, discussions of initial operations focus on using the visual abilities of the pilot to “see and avoid” (SAA) other aircraft. Decades of research on SAA has demonstrated that it is inadequate for reliable detection of aircraft that might pose a collision risk. The literature on multi-object tracking is also reviewed for findings on how well humans can visually track objects. The research shows that humans have limited resources for tracking and that this may be affected by object characteristics and cognitive skills. The conclusion is that SAA is a risky method for avoiding midair collisions. It is recommended that flight deck displays and automated collision avoidance systems be implemented for all UAM aircraft at the outset of their introduction.

urban air mobility↗

DOE OSTI2025

Risk of Mortality in Family Members of Men Seeking Fertility Assessment

Objective: To assess mortality in family members of men seeking fertility assessment. Subfertility serves as a biomarker for overall somatic health, and poor semen quality is associated with increased risk of hospitalization and mortality from chronic conditions. However, it is unclear if these risks extend to family members of men with low sperm count. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Subjects: Family members, up to third-degree relatives, of men in the Subfertility, Health and Assisted Reproduction and the Environment cohort who underwent a semen analysis as part of a fertility assessment 1996–2017. Relatives of men with a recorded total sperm count who lived in Utah for ≥1 year 1904–2017 were included in the analysis (N = 22,280 families). Exposure: Individuals were classified by family membership. Families were classified as relatives of azoospermic (0M), oligozoospermic (<39M), or normozoospermic (≥39M) men. The average total sperm count of the proband (male relative) with fertility assessment was also included as a continuous exposure measure. Main Outcome Measures: The main outcomes were all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk by sex, age, and degree of relation: first-, second-, and third-degree. Cox proportional hazard models were used to test the association between fertility classification and mortality, controlling for sex, race/ethnicity, and birth year. Results: A total of 666,437 relatives of men with fertility assessment (N deaths = 183,974) were included in the analysis. Relative to normozoospermia families, all-cause mortality risk increased in oligozoospermia families (hazard ratio [HR] oligozoospermia , 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01–1.05). Close relatives, first- (HR oligozoospermia , 1.17; 95% CI, 1.07–1.28) and second-degree relatives (HR azoospermia , 1.11; 95% CI, 1.04–1.20; HR oligozoospermia , 1.05; 95% CI,1.01–1.09), of azoospermic and oligozoospermic men had the highest all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk, including death attributed to cardiovascular disease or congenital birth conditions. Conclusion: Our results suggest that familial all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk differ by fertility phenotype. Families of azoospermic and oligozoospermic men showed significantly increased risk, particularly for close relatives. This study provides further evidence that shared genetic and/or environmental factors could influence both fertility and somatic health.

Male fertility↗