Results for “resource modeling” — Page 15

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the Hybrid Modelling Competition: A Step Towards Developing Good Modelling Practice

Hybrid modelling, a combination of mechanistic and data-driven modelling, is a promis¬ing approach to advance current mathematical models towards improved deci¬sion support tools for today's water-related challenges. Researchers have been develop¬ing guidelines or references for good modelling practices in the water field for mecha¬nistic (Rieger et al., 2012) and data-driven (Zhu et al., 2023) modelling, respectively. However, good modelling practices for hybrid modelling are currently missing (Schneider et al., 2022). Therefore, the International Water Association’s (IWA) hybrid modelling working group initiated the first competition on a data science competition platform (i.e. Kaggle) for water resource recovery modelling at the Watermatex con¬ference in September 2023 in Quebec. The main objective of this competition was to gain insights and experience to create good modelling practices. Further goals were to motivate students, researchers, and practitioners model, foster a vibrant and engaged community, and evaluate the efficacy of com¬petitions in solving modelling challenges within the water domain. Our next goal is that facilities will measure and gather relevant data for future competitions to solve their challenges from a modeller’s perspective.

Schneider, Mariane↗

NASA NTRS1987

NASA's Earth Resources Laboratory - Seventeen years of using remotely sensed satellite data in land applications

The activities of the Earth Resources Laboratoy (ERL) for the past seventeen years are reviewed with particular reference to four typical applications demonstrating the use of remotely sensed data in a geobased information system context. The applications discussed are: a fire control model for the Olympic National Park; wildlife habitat modeling; a resource inventory system including a potential soil erosion model; and a corridor analysis model for locating routes between geographical locations. Some future applications are also discussed.

Cashion, Kenneth D.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Computational framework for behind-the-meter DER techno-economic modeling and optimization: REopt Lite

The energy system is undergoing a major transformation with the global emphasis on decarbonization. Distributed generation is projected to play a significant role in the new energy system, and energy models are informing how distributed generation can be integrated reliably and economically. In this work, we present an end-to-end computational framework for distributed energy resource (DER) modeling, REopt Lite™, which captures the interface of technology, economics, and policy in the energy modeling process. We describe the problem space, the building blocks of the model, the scaling capabilities of the design, the optimization formulation, and the extensibility of the model. We present a framework for accelerating the techno-economic analysis of behind-the-meter distributed energy resources to enable rapid planning and decision-making, thereby enabling greater renewable energy deployment. This computation framework is open-sourced to facilitate transparency, flexibility, and wider collaboration opportunities within the worldwide energy modeling community.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1970

A mathematical model of the effect of a predator on species diversity

Mathematical model determines reaction between new predator and microbe competitor when the competitor is the predator's sole nutrient resource. The model utilizes differential equations to describe the interactions with the specific growth rates, and analyzes these growth rates as they are affected by population density and nutrient concentration.

Weston, C. R.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Use of Machine Learning Techniques for Iidentification of Robust Teleconnections to East African Rainfall Variability in Observations and Models

Providing advance warning of East African rainfall variations is a particular focus of several groups including those participating in the Famine Early Warming Systems Network. Both seasonal and long-term model projections of climate variability are being used to examine the societal impacts of hydrometeorological variability on seasonal to interannual and longer time scales. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of both seasonal and climate model projections to develop downscaled scenarios for using in impact modeling. The utility of these projections is reliant on the ability of current models to capture the embedded relationships between East African rainfall and evolving forcing within the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land climate system. Previous studies have posited relationships between variations in El Niño, the Walker circulation, Pacific decadal variability (PDV), and anthropogenic forcing. This study applies machine learning methods (e.g. clustering, probabilistic graphical model, nonlinear PCA) to observational datasets in an attempt to expose the importance of local and remote forcing mechanisms of East African rainfall variability. The ability of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5) coupled model to capture the associated relationships will be evaluated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations.

Roberts, J. Brent↗

DOE OSTI2025

A modeling study of ocean thermal energy conversion resource and potential environmental effects around Kailua-Kona, Hawaii

Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) offers a promising renewable energy solution through a heat exchange process using the temperature difference between warm surface seawater and cold deep seawater. Because accurate resource characterization is critical for the optimal design and implementation of OTEC systems, a high-resolution numerical model is employed to better characterize the OTEC resource at Kona, Hawaii. Our model provides detailed spatial and temporal variability of the thermal gradient, which is essential for assessing the viability and efficiency of OTEC systems. The model results reveal distinct patterns and dynamics not captured by existing observations or models (e.g., lower-resolution information). These findings highlight the importance of using high-resolution models for accurate predictions of thermal gradient variability, ultimately supporting more efficient and sustainable OTEC deployment. Additionally, the study investigates the impacts of mixed water discharge from OTEC plants that can cause shock to organisms living in the surface water and potentially destabilize the water column. Understanding these effects is vital for minimizing any potential negative environmental consequences and ensuring the long-term viability of OTEC operations. Further, our model improves OTEC resource characterization, which can lead to optimal design and deployment of OTEC systems. The analysis of OTEC water discharge impacts can accelerate the development of OTEC technologies, overcoming permitting/consenting challenges. These findings contribute to the broader adoption of high-resolution modeling in ocean energy resource characterization, particularly for OTEC applications.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Time-Series Gap-Filling Methods for Solar Irradiance Applications

A complete solar resource data set is essential for any stage of a solar energy project - from feasibility studies to daily operations. But measured or modeled solar resource data are prone to data gaps and data quality issues. To mitigate these issues, a data imputation process should be implemented to obtain a complete and reliable temporal and spatial data series. This study focused on imputing temporal scales by applying random and artificial data gaps and then implementing eight imputation methods, including the Kalman filtering and smoothing and stine interpolations. These methods were implemented on 1-minute to half hourly irradiance data for 1 year using a few locations from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) and ground measurement data set. The results demonstrated that some of the simpler methods, such as the stine and linear interpolation methods, were the relatively best models based on the statistical metrics for imputing NSRDB and ground measurement data, respectively.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2005

Space Shuttle and Space Station Radio Frequency (RF) Exposure Analysis

This paper outlines the modeling techniques and important parameters to define a rigorous but practical procedure that can verify the compliance of RF exposure to the NASA standards for astronauts and electronic equipment. The electromagnetic modeling techniques are applied to analyze RF exposure in Space Shuttle and Space Station environments with reasonable computing time and resources. The modeling techniques are capable of taking into account the field interactions with Space Shuttle and Space Station structures. The obtained results illustrate the multipath effects due to the presence of the space vehicle structures. It's necessary to include the field interactions with the space vehicle in the analysis for an accurate assessment of the RF exposure. Based on the obtained results, the RF keep out zones are identified for appropriate operational scenarios, flight rules and necessary RF transmitter constraints to ensure a safe operating environment and mission success.

Hwu, Shian U.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications (FARMS) [SWR-16-18]

The Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications (FARMS) is used to compute cloudy irradiance. Radiative transfer (RT) models simulating broadband solar radiation have been widely used by atmospheric scientists to model solar resources for various energy applications such as operational forecasting. Due to the complexity of solving the RT equation, the computation under cloudy conditions can be extremely time consuming though many approximations (e.g. two-stream approach and delta-M truncation scheme) have been utilized. Thus, a more efficient RT model is crucial for model developers as a new option for approximating solar radiation at the land surface with minimal loss of accuracy. We have developed a fast all-sky radiation model for solar applications (FARMS) using the simplified clear-sky RT model, REST2, and simulated cloud transmittances and reflectances from the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model (RRTM) with a sixteen-stream Discrete Ordinates Radiative Transfer (DISORT). Simulated lookup tables (LUTs) of cloud transmittances and reflectances were created by varying cloud optical thicknesses, cloud particle sizes, and solar zenith angles. Equations with optimized parameters were fitted to the cloud transmittances and reflectances to develop the model. Using this model the all-sky solar irradiance at the land surface can be computed rapidly by combining REST2 with the cloud transmittances and reflectances. This new RT model is more than 1000 times faster than those currently utilized in solar resource assessment and forecasting since it does not explicitly solve the RT equation for each individual cloud condition. Our results indicate the accuracy of the fast radiative transfer model is comparable to or better than two-stream approximation in term of computing cloud transmittance and solar radiation.

Xie, Yu↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications (FARMS) 2023 [SWR-16-18]

The Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications (FARMS) is used to compute cloudy irradiance. Radiative transfer (RT) models simulating broadband solar radiation have been widely used by atmospheric scientists to model solar resources for various energy applications such as operational forecasting. Due to the complexity of solving the RT equation, the computation under cloudy conditions can be extremely time consuming though many approximations (e.g. two-stream approach and delta-M truncation scheme) have been utilized. Thus, a more efficient RT model is crucial for model developers as a new option for approximating solar radiation at the land surface with minimal loss of accuracy. We have developed a fast all-sky radiation model for solar applications (FARMS) using the simplified clear-sky RT model, REST2, and simulated cloud transmittances and reflectances from the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model (RRTM) with a sixteen-stream Discrete Ordinates Radiative Transfer (DISORT). Simulated lookup tables (LUTs) of cloud transmittances and reflectances were created by varying cloud optical thicknesses, cloud particle sizes, and solar zenith angles. Equations with optimized parameters were fitted to the cloud transmittances and reflectances to develop the model. Using this model the all-sky solar irradiance at the land surface can be computed rapidly by combining REST2 with the cloud transmittances and reflectances. This new RT model is more than 1000 times faster than those currently utilized in solar resource assessment and forecasting since it does not explicitly solve the RT equation for each individual cloud condition. Our results indicate the accuracy of the fast radiative transfer model is comparable to or better than two-stream approximation in term of computing cloud transmittance and solar radiation.

Xie, Yu↗

DOE OSTI2020

Enhancement of Distribution System Resilience Through the Application of Volt-Var Regulation Devices

This paper discusses a practical implementation of locating and sizing dynamic reactive compensation using an impedance matrix (Zbus) approach to improve distribution system resilience in scenarios with high penetration of distributed resources. The modeled system is a 14.2 kV radial residential system modified to be fed by a combination of traditional sources and solar resources. Time-varying loads and PV sources are connected along the feeder to simulate the challenging operational voltage regulation scenarios faced by Modern Distribution Systems. Additionally, enhancement of the resilience of the electrical system is demonstrated through analyzing the effect of a topology change to the system. This study uses the GridLAB-D software.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2013

Evaluating Downscaling Methods for Seasonal Climate Forecasts over East Africa

The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in impact modeling within hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. One of the participating models in NMME is the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5). This work will present an intercomparison of downscaling methods using the GEOS5 seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation over East Africa. The current seasonal forecasting system provides monthly averaged forecast anomalies. These anomalies must be spatially downscaled and temporally disaggregated for use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture). There are several available downscaling methodologies that can be implemented to accomplish this goal. Selected methods include both a non-homogenous hidden Markov model and an analogue based approach. A particular emphasis will be placed on quantifying the ability of different methods to capture the intermittency of precipitation within both the short and long rain seasons. Further, the ability to capture spatial covariances will be assessed. Both probabilistic and deterministic skill measures will be evaluated over the hindcast period.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Evaluating Downscaling Methods for Seasonal Climate Forecasts over East Africa

The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in impact modeling within hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. One of the participating models in NMME is the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5). This work will present an intercomparison of downscaling methods using the GEOS5 seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation over East Africa. The current seasonal forecasting system provides monthly averaged forecast anomalies. These anomalies must be spatially downscaled and temporally disaggregated for use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture). There are several available downscaling methodologies that can be implemented to accomplish this goal. Selected methods include both a non-homogenous hidden Markov model and an analogue based approach. A particular emphasis will be placed on quantifying the ability of different methods to capture the intermittency of precipitation within both the short and long rain seasons. Further, the ability to capture spatial covariances will be assessed. Both probabilistic and deterministic skill measures will be evaluated over the hindcast period

Roberts, J. Brent↗

NASA NTRS2014

Turbulence Modeling Verification and Validation

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software that solves the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations has been in routine use for more than a quarter of a century. It is currently employed not only for basic research in fluid dynamics, but also for the analysis and design processes in many industries worldwide, including aerospace, automotive, power generation, chemical manufacturing, polymer processing, and petroleum exploration. A key feature of RANS CFD is the turbulence model. Because the RANS equations are unclosed, a model is necessary to describe the effects of the turbulence on the mean flow, through the Reynolds stress terms. The turbulence model is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in RANS CFD, and most models are known to be flawed in one way or another. Alternative methods such as direct numerical simulations (DNS) and large eddy simulations (LES) rely less on modeling and hence include more physics than RANS. In DNS all turbulent scales are resolved, and in LES the large scales are resolved and the effects of the smallest turbulence scales are modeled. However, both DNS and LES are too expensive for most routine industrial usage on today's computers. Hybrid RANS-LES, which blends RANS near walls with LES away from walls, helps to moderate the cost while still retaining some of the scale-resolving capability of LES, but for some applications it can still be too expensive. Even considering its associated uncertainties, RANS turbulence modeling has proved to be very useful for a wide variety of applications. For example, in the aerospace field, many RANS models are considered to be reliable for computing attached flows. However, existing turbulence models are known to be inaccurate for many flows involving separation. Research has been ongoing for decades in an attempt to improve turbulence models for separated and other nonequilibrium flows. When developing or improving turbulence models, both verification and validation are important steps in the process. Verification insures that the CFD code is solving the equations as intended (no errors in the implementation). This is typically done either through the method of manufactured solutions (MMS) or through careful step-by-step comparisons with other verified codes. After the verification step is concluded, validation is performed to document the ability of the turbulence model to represent different types of flow physics. Validation can involve a large number of test case comparisons with experiments, theory, or DNS. Organized workshops have proved to be valuable resources for the turbulence modeling community in its pursuit of turbulence modeling verification and validation. Workshop contributors using different CFD codes run the same cases, often according to strict guidelines, and compare results. Through these comparisons, it is often possible to (1) identify codes that have likely implementation errors, and (2) gain insight into the capabilities and shortcomings of different turbulence models to predict the flow physics associated with particular types of flows. These are valuable lessons because they help bring consistency to CFD codes by encouraging the correction of faulty programming and facilitating the adoption of better models. They also sometimes point to specific areas needed for improvement in the models. In this paper, several recent workshops are summarized primarily from the point of view of turbulence modeling verification and validation. Furthermore, the NASA Langley Turbulence Modeling Resource website is described. The purpose of this site is to provide a central location where RANS turbulence models are documented, and test cases, grids, and data are provided. The goal of this paper is to provide an abbreviated survey of turbulence modeling verification and validation efforts, summarize some of the outcomes, and give some ideas for future endeavors in this area.

Rumsey, Christopher L.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Evaluating NMME Seasonal Forecast Skill for use in NASA SERVIR Hub Regions

The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The coupled forecasts have numerous potential applications, both national and international in scope. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in driving applications models in hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush- Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. A prerequisite for seasonal forecast use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture) is bias correction and skill assessment. Efforts to address systematic biases and multi-model combination in support of NASA SERVIR impact modeling requirements will be highlighted. Specifically, quantilequantile mapping for bias correction has been implemented for all archived NMME hindcasts. Both deterministic and probabilistic skill estimates for raw, bias-corrected, and multi-model ensemble forecasts as a function of forecast lead will be presented for temperature and precipitation. Complementing this statistical assessment will be case studies of significant events, for example, the ability of the NMME forecasts suite to anticipate the 2010/2011 drought in the Horn of Africa and its relationship to evolving SST patterns.

Roberts, J. Brent↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling algae cultivation at scale: Productivity, pond reliability, and resource consumption across the United States

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS2011

Use of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Retrievals to Evaluate Model Estimates by the Australian Water Resources Assessment System

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) estimates retrievals from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission were compared to TWS modeled by the Australian Water Resources Assessment (AWRA) system. The aim was to test whether differences could be attributed and used to identify model deficiencies. Data for 2003 2010 were decomposed into the seasonal cycle, linear trends and the remaining de-trended anomalies before comparing. AWRA tended to have smaller seasonal amplitude than GRACE. GRACE showed a strong (greater than 15 millimeter per year) drying trend in northwest Australia that was associated with a preceding period of unusually wet conditions, whereas weaker drying trends in the southern Murray Basin and southwest Western Australia were associated with relatively dry conditions. AWRA estimated trends were less negative for these regions, while a more positive trend was estimated for areas affected by cyclone Charlotte in 2009. For 2003-2009, a decrease of 7-8 millimeter per year (50-60 cubic kilometers per year) was estimated from GRACE, enough to explain 6-7% of the contemporary rate of global sea level rise. This trend was not reproduced by the model. Agreement between model and data suggested that the GRACE retrieval error estimates are biased high. A scaling coefficient applied to GRACE TWS to reduce the effect of signal leakage appeared to degrade quantitative agreement for some regions. Model aspects identified for improvement included a need for better estimation of rainfall in northwest Australia, and more sophisticated treatment of diffuse groundwater discharge processes and surface-groundwater connectivity for some regions.

van Dijk, A. I. J. M.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Maximally Expressive Modeling of Operations Tasks

Planning and scheduling systems organize "tasks" into a timeline or schedule. The tasks are defined within the scheduling system in logical containers called models. The dictionary might define a model of this type as "a system of things and relations satisfying a set of rules that, when applied to the things and relations, produce certainty about the tasks that are being modeled." One challenging domain for a planning and scheduling system is the operation of on-board experiments for the International Space Station. In these experiments, the equipment used is among the most complex hardware ever developed, the information sought is at the cutting edge of scientific endeavor, and the procedures are intricate and exacting. Scheduling is made more difficult by a scarcity of station resources. The models to be fed into the scheduler must describe both the complexity of the experiments and procedures (to ensure a valid schedule) and the flexibilities of the procedures and the equipment (to effectively utilize available resources). Clearly, scheduling International Space Station experiment operations calls for a "maximally expressive" modeling schema.

Jaap, John↗