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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A review of future weather data for assessing climate change impacts on buildings and energy systems

The effectiveness of climate change impact assessments and the development of adaptation strategies depend on the availability of high-quality future weather data. However, significant gaps exist between the needs of the energy research community and the focus of the climate modeling community, primarily due to a historical lack of communication and collaboration between the two groups. Here, to address this issue, this work provides a comprehensive overview of the critical aspects involved in creating future weather data for building and energy system modeling, including emissions scenarios, general circulation models, downscaling methods, categories of future weather data, and uncertainties in climate simulations. Moreover, it critically evaluates the applicability and suitability of various types of future weather data in five key application scenarios: energy use analysis, resilience analysis, HVAC design, utility-scale analysis, and renewable energy analysis. Finally, this work presents recommendations for high-level actions and research directions to foster collaboration between the energy research and climate modeling communities and to promote the integration of future weather data into energy codes and the design practices of buildings and energy systems.

Climate change↗
NASA NTRS2013

Three Decades of Global Methane Sources and Sinks

Methane is an important greenhouse gas, responsible for about 20 of the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases since pre-industrial times. By reacting with hydroxyl radicals, methane reduces the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and generates ozone in the troposphere. Although most sources and sinks of methane have been identified, their relative contributions to atmospheric methane levels are highly uncertain. As such, the factors responsible for the observed stabilization of atmospheric methane levels in the early 2000s, and the renewed rise after 2006, remain unclear. Here, we construct decadal budgets for methane sources and sinks between 1980 and 2010, using a combination of atmospheric measurements and results from chemical transport models, ecosystem models, climate chemistry models and inventories of anthropogenic emissions. The resultant budgets suggest that data-driven approaches and ecosystem models overestimate total natural emissions. We build three contrasting emission scenarios which differ in fossil fuel and microbial emissions to explain the decadal variability in atmospheric methane levels detected, here and in previous studies, since 1985. Although uncertainties in emission trends do not allow definitive conclusions to be drawn, we show that the observed stabilization of methane levels between 1999 and 2006 can potentially be explained by decreasing-to-stable fossil fuel emissions, combined with stable-to-increasing microbial emissions. We show that a rise in natural wetland emissions and fossil fuel emissions probably accounts for the renewed increase in global methane levels after 2006, although the relative contribution of these two sources remains uncertain.

periodic variations↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic Unit Commitment: Model Reduction via Learning

As weather-dependent renewable generation increases its share in the generation mix of most electric energy systems, a stochastic unit commitment becomes the natural day-ahead scheduling tool. However, such a tool is generally computationally intractable if a detailed uncertainty description is considered. Taking this into account, we proposed a learning method to make the stochastic unit commitment problem tractable. Here, recent advances in statistical learning and machine learning to address optimization problems can be advantageously applied to the rather intractable stochastic unit commitment problem. Considering these advances, we explore simple learning techniques to drastically reduce the size of a stochastic unit commitment problem without significantly altering its optimal solution. The considered stochastic unit commitment problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic programming problem. The first stage represents commitment decisions, while the second one represents the operation conditions under different scenarios. Taking into account historical solved instances (or proxies for them), we reduce the size (measured by numbers of constraints and variables) of the stochastic unit commitment problem by (i) fixing unchanged binary variables and by (ii) eliminating inactive inequality constraints. Our numerical results show that the reduced problem generally requires significantly less time to solve while obtaining high-quality solutions, which are very close to or indistinguishable from the one obtained by solving the original problem. We use an Illinois 200-bus system to illustrate and characterize the performance of the proposed problem-reduction method.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

2020 State of the Science Report, Chapter 12: Adaptive Management Related to Marine Renewable Energy

As the marine renewable energy (MRE) industry is rapidly ramped up from single devices to commercial-scale deployments, developers and regulators will need evidence of the environmental effects of MRE to inform project development and consenting/permitting (hereafter consenting) processes. Uncertainty surrounding the potential impacts of novel RE technologies on sensitive marine animals, habitats, and ecosystem processes means that even robust baseline environmental information cannot comprehensively address all pre-deployment knowledge gaps. Tools and practical approaches are needed to help with the sustainable development of the industry. Adaptive management (AM), also referred to as learning by/while doing, enables projects to be deployed incrementally, despite uncertainty, in a way that prevents unacceptable harm to the marine environment. If rigorously implemented, this approach may provide a reliable mechanism for closing knowledge gaps, thereby retiring risks for future MRE developments. This chapter explores and suggests a pathway for applying a passive approach to AM for the consenting of single devices and array-scale MRE projects. Complementary information is available online at https://tethys.pnnl.gov/state-of-thescience-2020 -supplementaryadaptive-management. https://tethys.pnnl.gov/publications/state-of-the-science-2020-chapter-12-adaptive-management

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2025

Long-Term Photovoltaic System Performance in Cold, Snowy Climates

As countries around the world transition towards renewable energy, there is increasing interest in using photovoltaic (PV) technologies to help decarbonize northern and alpine communities due to their scalability and affordability. However, a barrier to large-scale adoption of PV in cold climates is long-term performance uncertainty under snowfall, freeze-thaw cycles, low temperatures, and high winds. In this work, we provide a comprehensive review of published silicon degradation rates in cold Koppen-Geiger climate classifications of Dfb (humid continental), Dfc (subarctic), and ET (tundra). We first analyze the system degradation rates of three subarctic ground-mounted photovoltaic sites in North America using the RdTools year-on-year method: an Al-BSF double-axis tracking site in Fairbanks, Alaska (65degrees N); a PERC and silicon heterojunction bifacial vertical and south-tilted site in Fairbanks, Alaska; and a PERC south-facing fixed-tilt site in Fort Simpson, Northwest Territories (62degrees N). Degradation rates of these newly analyzed sites vary between -0.4%/year and -1.5%/year. Combining these data with previously reported cold climate degradation rates, we show that the distribution of cold climate degradation peaks at -0.1%/year to -0.2%/year but has a large tail with rates above -0.5%/year. The average reported cold climate degradation rate is -0.45%/year, whereas the median value is -0.33%/year. These results suggest that despite frequent freeze-thaw cycles and potential exposure to high wind and snow loads, PV systems in cold climates tend to degrade slower than PV systems in warmer climates. The limited sample size of reported degradation rates in cold climates (27) motivates the need for further data acquisition and monitoring efforts as new technologies are deployed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

PV Reference Cells for Outdoor Use: An Investigation of Calibration Factors

Reference cells are widely used in the photovoltaic (PV) industry to measure irradiance. For field applications and outdoor use, a variety of products are on the market, and they are often perceived as a low-cost alternative to thermopile radiometers. But reference cell characteristics differ substantially from the latter, therefore measurements made by one category of instrument cannot be substituted for or directly compared with the other. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Solar Radiation Research Laboratory is currently in a multiyear effort to develop guidance and recommendations for the design and use of outdoor reference cells, with a view to reducing inconsistencies and measurement uncertainty. The core of this effort is the long-term deployment of 39 units of 10 distinct types made by 6 manufacturers. This report compares the calibration factors provided by manufacturers - which most users rely upon - to those measured at a high level of accuracy by NREL's Cell Lab. It also reports on the application of the Broadband Outdoor Radiometer Calibration (BORCAL) method to reference cells. As a group, the factory calibrations for the crystalline silicon cells showed a small positive bias of +0.7%, with a tight distribution around this value. This is a very good result for the manufacturers. The two World Photovoltaic Scale cells constituted outliers, with a mean deviation of -0.8%, which is still within the reported uncertainty ranges. The data collected during the BORCAL procedures show a strong and systematic fluctuation of the apparent responsivity of the reference cells over the course of a day, which was anticipated. Consequently, the standard BORCAL R@45 calibration factors underestimated the reference cell responsivities by 1%-4%. An alternate responsivity indicator was developed, R'@30, incorporating adjustments for temperature response, spectral response, and directional response. This reduced the mean deviation to -0.4% compared to the Cell Lab. Further, two independent BORCAL sessions were able to produce the same values to within ±0.2%. This could be a viable approach for verifying reference cells using existing BORCAL infrastructure, for example, to evaluate their long-term stability. The daily profiles of responsivity obtained during the BORCAL sessions (provided in Appendix A) show clear patterns of differences between models, which provides evidence that their directional responses differ from each other; thus, two sensors that are calibrated correctly might give the same reading at 30° zenith angle but systematically different readings at 60°. The impact of these inconsistencies in field operation will be quantified using the long-term observations started in 2020.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

PV Reference Cells for Outdoor Use: Comparison of First-Year Field Measurements

Reference cells are widely used in the photovoltaic (PV) industry to measure irradiance. For field applications and outdoor use, a variety of products are on the market, and they are often perceived as low-cost alternatives to thermopile pyranometers. But reference cell characteristics, such as directional and spectral response, fundamentally differ from pyranometers, and measurements made by the former cannot be substituted for or directly compared with the latter. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Solar Radiation Research Laboratory is currently in a multiyear effort to develop guidance and recommendations for the design and use of outdoor reference cells, with a view to reducing inconsistencies and measurement uncertainty. The core of this effort is the long-term deployment of multiple products from different manufacturers that are mounted at a fixed tilt, on a single-axis tracker, and on a dual-axis tracker. This report provides an analysis of the data collected during the first year of operation at the NREL location. An overall assessment is made by comparing the total energy measured by each instrument to the other instruments having the same orientation. These totals are calculated for three different scenarios: (1) using the factory calibration factors, (2) using the previously determined NREL Cell Lab calibration factors, and (3) using the newly determined field calibration factors derived from the recorded measurements. Because the true or correct measurement values are unknown, pair-wise comparisons are made. The results show that the difference between the highest and lowest measured energy can exceed 3% when using the factory calibration factors. Consistency among instruments improves when Cell Lab calibrations are used, and it further improves when using field calibration factors.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Super-Resolution for Renewable Energy Resource Data with Climate Change Impacts (Sup3rCC)

The Super-Resolution for Renewable Energy Resource Data with Climate Change Impacts (Sup3rCC) data is a collection of 4km hourly wind, solar, temperature, humidity, and pressure fields for the contiguous United States under various climate change scenarios. Sup3rCC is downscaled Global Climate Model (GCM) data. The downscaling process was performed using a generative machine learning approach called sup3r: Super-Resolution for Renewable Energy Resource Data (linked below as "Sup3r GitHub Repo"). The data includes both historical and future weather years, although the historical years represent the historical climate, not the actual historical weather that we experienced. You cannot use Sup3rCC data to study historical weather events, although other sup3r datasets may be intended for this. The Sup3rCC data is intended to help researchers study the impact of climate change on energy systems with high levels of wind and solar capacity. Please note that all climate change data is only a representation of the possible future climate and contains significant uncertainty. Analysis of multiple climate change scenarios and multiple climate models can help quantify this uncertainty.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probability Density Function Control of Frequency Fluctuations in Renewable-Rich Power Systems

The stochastic nature of renewable energy sources (RESs) necessitates treating power system frequency response as a random process with a nonstationary probability density function (PDF). Here, based upon the stochastic distribution control theory originated by the second author, this paper proposes a novel stochastic controller to improve the frequency PDF in power grids when integrating a large amount of RESs, thereby minimizing the effects of uncertainties and enhancing overall system stability. The key idea is to manipulate the controllable power generation resources so that the frequency PDF is make to follow a target PDF by using the stochastic distribution control theory originated by the second author. The proposed method can easily be plugged into existing automatic generation controls for multi-area transmission grids. The proposed method is validated via a modified Kundar's two area system and 240-bus Western Electricity Coordinating Council systems. The simulation results show that the proposed control shapes the frequency PDF narrower and sharper, leading to a notable improvement toward minimizing the effects of randomness and uncertainty during grid operation.

frequency↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Framework for Effective Science Communication and Outreach Strategies and Dissemination of Research Findings for Marine Energy Projects

Marine energy is an emerging renewable energy industry with the potential to produce 2300 terawatt-hours per year from resources within the United States. As development and testing of marine energy devices advance, regulatory and permitting decision-makers are concerned about the uncertainty surrounding the potential environmental effects resulting from the introduction of these novel devices in coastal and riverine environments. The Triton Initiative researches and provides recommendations for environmental monitoring technologies and methods to inform industry stakeholders with the data necessary to permit the testing of marine energy systems. Effective dissemination of the research findings is essential for improving the accessibility of data to stakeholders who may use the results to inform policy decisions, yet few frameworks for conducting science communications for marine energy projects exist. In this paper, we present tools, channels, and tactics for developing a science communication framework for marine energy projects, or similar areas of study, using the Triton Initiative’s pilot science communication program as a case study. By leveraging existing bodies of work in disciplines such as communications theory, marketing, public relations, and social science, the presented framework includes audience identification and analysis; channel development, including a website, blog, newsletter, social media, and webinars and presentations; and metrics for determining success. Outcomes from one year of Triton’s case study are presented, including the most effective tactics and lessons learned.

communication framework↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cold Climate Degradation: An Analysis of Double-Axis Tracked, E-W Vertical, and Fixed-Tilt Photovoltaic Deployments in Alaska

As countries around the world transition towards renewable energy, there is increasing interest in using photovoltaic (PV) technologies to help decarbonize remote northern communities due to their scalability and affordability. However, a major barrier towards large-scale adoption of PV in cold climates is performance uncertainty under extreme environmental conditions including snowfall, freeze-thaw cycles, and high wind loads. Existing literature on PV degradation rates in the North is relatively limited, with published degradation rates varying between -0.2%/year (Sweden) to -1.3%/year (Scotland). At this workshop, we will present preliminary results on the long-term performance of two diverse photovoltaic sites located in Fairbanks, Alaska at 64.8 degrees N: a monofacial Al-BSF double-axis tracking site maintained by the Cold Climate Housing Research Center (CCHRC), and a bifacial PERC/SHJ E-W vertical and south-facing fixed-tilt site maintained by the Alaska Center Energy and Power (ACEP). CCHRC data has been collected over a period of 15 years, while ACEP site data has been collected over 4 years. Using the degradation analysis tool, RdTools, we will present annual system degradation rates, seasonal performance ratio, and identify potential cold climate failure mechanisms for commercially available PV technologies. This analysis will add to existing literature by directly comparing the performance of multiple PV configurations in Alaska.

bifacial↗
DOE OSTI2021

Acoustic and Genetic Data Can Reduce Uncertainty Regarding Populations of Migratory Tree-Roosting Bats Impacted by Wind Energy

Wind turbine-related mortality may pose a population-level threat for migratory tree-roosting bats, such as the hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus) in North America. These species are dispersed within their range, making it impractical to estimate census populations size using traditional survey methods. Nonetheless, understanding population size and trends is essential for evaluating and mitigating risk from wind turbine mortality. Using various sampling techniques, including systematic acoustic sampling and genetic analyses, we argue that building a weight of evidence regarding bat population status and trends is possible to (1) assess the sustainability of mortality associated with wind turbines; (2) determine the level of mitigation required; and (3) evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation measures to ensure population viability for these species. Long-term, systematic data collection remains the most viable option for reducing uncertainty regarding population trends for migratory tree-roosting bats. We recommend collecting acoustic data using the statistically robust North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) protocols and that genetic diversity is monitored at repeated time intervals to show species trends. There are no short-term actions to resolve these population-level questions; however, we discuss opportunities for relatively short-term investments that will lead to long-term success in reducing uncertainty.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stochastic Pricing Game for Aggregated Demand Response Considering Comfort Level

In recent years, demand response (DR) has been explored as a fundamental strategy for demand-side management due to its advantages in mediating intermittency of renewable energy generation, load shifting, etc. To engage customers in DR programs, several deterministic price-based DR strategies have been developed and implemented. However, the stochastic weather conditions and occupants' consumption behaviors often make the deterministic solution less robust to uncertainties. In this paper, with the consideration of the uncertainties, a stochastic Stackelberg game is proposed to model the price-demand negotiation between a distributed system operator and load aggregators, where the virtual battery constraints are extracted from the building thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs)‘ characteristics to guarantee comfortable TCLs' levels. Following the negotiation, a priority-based control method is used to allocate the optimal aggregated power DR profile at the building level and track the power signal. Several groups of experiments have demonstrated the effectiveness and robustness of the stochastic solutions.

Chen, Yang↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity and Importance Measure Analyses for Various Design Architectures for High Safety-Significant Safety-Related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems of Nuclear Power Plants

A transition from analog instrumentation and control (I&C) technologies to digital I&C technologies is taking place for license renewals of existing nuclear power plants and for operating licenses of new advanced reactors. This transition necessitates research on risk and economic assessments of digital I&C technologies to ensure the long-term safety and reliability of vital systems, reduce uncertainty in licensing costs in addition to timeline, support integration of digital I&C systems in the plant, and find the most efficient technology upgrades. Adding redundancy within systems or components is a common means of improving design safety; however, it can also make designs more prone to common-cause failures (CCFs). Introducing diversity into redundant systems or components is a way to mitigate and possibly eliminate CCFs, but it also increases plant complexity and may be costly. The balance between redundancy and diversity remains a challenge for digital I&C systems. This study performs sensitivity and importance analyses for four design architectures of two digital I&C systems—the reactor-trip system and the engineered safety features actuation system. For each system, two architectures are examined, including a redundant, non-diverse configuration and a redundant, diverse configuration. The sensitivity analysis will provide insights on the impact of introducing diversity to system reliability. The importance results will help identify risk-significant and risk-sensitive components and failure modes, which may be good candidates for future design improvement.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Clearing a Path to Commercialization of Marine Renewable Energy Technologies Through Public–Private Collaboration

Governments are increasingly turning toward public–private partnerships to bring industry support to improving public assets or services. Here, we describe a unique public–private collaboration where a government entity has developed mechanisms to support public and private sector advancement and commercialization of monitoring technologies for marine renewable energy. These support mechanisms include access to a range of skilled personnel and test facilities that promote rapid innovation, prove reliability, and inspire creativity in technology development as innovations move from concept to practice. The ability to iteratively test hardware and software components, sensors, and systems can accelerate adoption of new methods and instrumentation designs. As a case study, we present the development of passive acoustic monitoring technologies customized for operation in energetic waves and currents. We discuss the value of testing different systems together, under the same conditions, as well as the progression through different test locations. The outcome is multiple, complementary monitoring technologies that are well suited to addressing an area of high environmental uncertainty and reducing barriers to responsible deployment of low-carbon energy conversion systems, creating solutions for the future.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning Derived Dynamic Operating Reserve Requirements in High-Renewable Power Systems

Accurately forecasting wind and solar power output poses challenges for deeply decarbonized electricity systems. Grid operators must commit resources to provide reserves to ensure reliable operations in the face of forecast errors, a process which can increase fuel consumption and emissions. We apply neural network-based machine learning to expand the usefulness of median point forecast data by creating probabilistic distributions of short-term uncertainty in demand, wind, and solar forecasts that adapt to prevailing grid conditions. Machine learning derived estimates of forecast errors compare favorably to estimates based on incumbent methods. Reserves derived from machine learning are usually smaller than values derived using incumbent methods, which enables fuel savings during most hours. Machine learning reserves are generally larger than incumbent reserves during times of higher forecast error, potentially improving system reliability. Performance is tested using multi-stage production simulation modeling of the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) system. Machine learning reserves provide production cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions of approximately 0.3% relative to historical 2019 requirements. Savings in the 2030 timeframe are highly dependent on battery storage capacity. At lower levels of battery capacity, savings of 0.4% from machine learning reserves are shown. Significant quantities of battery storage are expected to be added to meet California's resource adequacy needs and GHG reduction targets. Addition of these batteries saturate reserve needs and results in minimal within-hour balancing costs in 2030.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Process for Distribution System Voltage Probabilistic Estimation with PVs

The increasing penetration of behind-the-meter PVs causes challenges to maintain voltage security due to the lack of distribution system visibility. This paper proposes a nonlinear autoregressive Gaussian process (NARGP) approach to fuse limited number of SCADA/AMI data together with historical pseudo measurements for distribution node voltage probabilistic estimation. The high-fidelity SCADA data are fused with the low-fidelity AMI and pseudo measurements by the autoregressive algorithm embedded in the Gaussian process. This allows us to use multi-fidelity data to achieve entire distribution system voltage visibility. Numerical results carried out on the IEEE 123node system demonstrate that the NARGP method is able to obtain high accuracy in estimating bus voltage and quantifying estimation uncertainties as compared to other approaches.

distribution system estimation↗