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NASA NTRS2015

Implementing Marine Organic Aerosols Into the GEOS-Chem Model

Marine-sourced organic aerosols (MOA) have been shown to play an important role in tropospheric chemistry by impacting surface mass, cloud condensation nuclei, and ice nuclei concentrations over remote marine and coastal regions. In this work, an online marine primary organic aerosol emission parameterization, designed to be used for both global and regional models, was implemented into the GEOS-Chem model. The implemented emission scheme improved the large under-prediction of organic aerosol concentrations in clean marine regions (normalized mean bias decreases from -79% when using the default settings to -12% when marine organic aerosols are added). Model predictions were also in good agreement (correlation coefficient of 0.62 and normalized mean bias of -36%) with hourly surface concentrations of MOA observed during the summertime at an inland site near Paris, France. Our study shows that MOA have weaker coastal-to-inland concentration gradients than sea-salt aerosols, leading to several inland European cities having > 10% of their surface submicron organic aerosol mass concentration with a marine source. The addition of MOA tracers to GEOS-Chem enabled us to identify the regions with large contributions of freshly-emitted or aged aerosol having distinct physicochemical properties, potentially indicating optimal locations for future field studies.

Aerosols↗

DOE OSTI2022

Verification of the 3-Region Advanced Test Reactor MCNP Model

The verification of the 3-region homogenized fuel Advanced Test Reactor MCNP model. The 3-region model was compared to the 19-plate model found in the 94-CIC report. Flux tallies, energy deposition tallies, and quarter core mesh tallies were used to compare the two models. The 3-region model needed updating in order to make good comparisons between the models. The percent error from the flux and energy deposition tallies data shows that experiment positions inside the flux trap have higher errors than positions outside the fuel ring. The standard deviation data obtained from the mesh tallies shows that the two models agree within two standard deviations throughout the reactor. It is concluded that the model works adequately for what it is used for.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Verification of the 3-Region Advanced Test Reactor MCNP Model

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS1991

Internal ballistics model update for ASRM dome

A previous report (no. 5-32279, contract NAS8-36955, DO 51) describes the measures taken to adapt the NASA Complex Burning Region Model and code so that is was applicable to the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor as envisioned at that time. The code so modified was called the CBRM-A. CBRM-A could calculate the port volume and burning area for the star, transition, and cylindrically perforated regions of the motor. Described here is a subsequent effort to add computation of port volume and burning area for the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor head dome. Sample output, input, and overview of the models are included. The software was configured in two forms - a stand alone head dome code and a code integrating the head dome solution with the CBRM-A.

Bowden, Mark H.↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Effects of B/L-Dependent Heating on the Formation and Evolution of a Multi-Threaded Prominence

We have developed a comprehensive, multi-threaded, three-dimensional model of the plasma dynamics and energetics of a prominence and its overlying arcade (Luna et al. 2012). In this model, the basic magnetic structure is that of two interacting sheared arcades, while the cool condensations composing the prominence are formed by the well-studied thermal nonequilibrium mechanism. In a given filament-channel flux tube, the mass is evaporated from the chromosphere by heating localized near the footpoints, and condenses in the form of transient blobs or a persistent thread. Our previous studies of thermal nonequilibrium used steady or impulsive heating functions with no dependence on local physical. However, parametric active-region models with steady heating proportional to B/L, where B is the flux-tube magnetic field strength at each footpoint and L is the flux-tube length, yield the best agreement with observations (e.g., Schrijver et al. 2008). We have determined the effects of this active-region heating function on our model for the formation and evolution of prominence mass. We have also expanded the range of our computational domain to include more ofthe overlying arcade (the so-called "cavity") than in Luna et al. (2012), and have increased the number of selected flux tubes from 125 to 533. We will illustrate the time-dependent plasma behavior produced by the B/L heating function with synthetic images in several ALA passbands, and compare the resulting prominence properties with those predicted by our model with steady heating.

Karpen, Judith T.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Computational Analysis of Water Film Thickness During Rain Events for Assessing Hydroplaning Risk Part 2: Rough Road Surfaces

Hydroplaning occurs when a water film forms on a road during a rain event and vehicles are traveling at a speed that does not provide sufficient time for the tires to push the water film out of the tire path. Under these conditions, the tire loses contact with the road and the driver may lose control over the vehicle. The present study is a part of a multiyear research effort aimed at gaining a better understanding of the factors that contribute to hydroplaning risk in order to minimize the occurrence of hydroplaning accidents. Three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis was used to investigate the water film thickness on multilane roads, one of the key parameters in evaluating hydroplaning risk. In the first part of the study, water films forming on wide roadways, i.e. multilane highways with 2, 4, and 6 lanes per side, were analyzed, with varying cross slope, longitudinal slope, and rainfall rate. Roadways with and without curbs and drainage were included in the analysis. The analysis in the first part was limited to nearly smooth asphalt or concrete surfaces because the maximum roughness height that can be specified in a CFD model using wall functions to determine shear stress at the road surface boundary is one half the thickness of computational cell layer adjacent to the boundary and the need to resolve the vertical velocity distribution in a thin water film requires cell layers that are a fraction of a millimeter thick. In this part of the study, the analysis was extended to consider the influence of pavement roughness over a range extending up 3.6 mm on the development of water film thickness. Various methods of modeling roughness were investigated and are presented: the roughness height model, a meshed-out geometry of the macrotexture of the pavement, and a porous region model. The computational results were analyzed and compared with experimental measurements performed by Gallaway et al.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Future projections in the climatology of global low-level jets from CORDEX-CORE simulations

The potential changes in the strength and location of five low-level jets (LLJs) located within four Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains are examined for present and future climate conditions using an ensemble of simulations conducted with the RegCM4 regional model at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing. Lateral and lower boundary forcing fields are from three General Circulation Models (GCMs), and we analyse a historical period (1995–2014) along with two future periods (2041–2060 and 2080–2099) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6 and 8.5. The RegCM4, as driven by the GCMs, is capable of capturing most of the observed climatological features of the LLJs, both in terms of spatial location and seasonal evolution. Analysis of the influence of global warming on the LLJs shows a consistent strengthening of the jets and a shift in their location under both warming scenarios. The Monsoon and West African westerly LLJs exhibit a northward shift, while the Caribbean and South American LLJs present a westward expansion. The use of an ensemble of high-resolution simulations is found to provide a key element for a robust assessment of changes in LLJs associated with future global warming scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

Real-Time Assimilation of Goes-Derived Products into A Mesoscale Model and It's Impact on Short-Term (06-36hr) Forecasts from 17 October 1998 through the Present

As the parameterizations of surface energy budgets in regional models have become more complete physically, models have the potential to be much more realistic in simulations of coupling between surface radiation, hydrology, and surface energy transfer. Realizing the importance of properly specifying the surface energy budget, many institutions are using land-surface models to represent the lower boundary forcing associated with biophysical processes and soil hydrology. However, the added degrees of freedom due to inclusion of such land-surface schemes require the specification of additional parameters within the model system such as vegetative resistances, green vegetation fraction, leaf area index, soil physical and hydraulic characteristics, stream flow, runoff, and the vertical distribution of soil moisture. Spatial heterogeneity of these parameters makes correct specification problematic since measurements are not routinely available. A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-IR skin temperature tendencies, solar insolation, and surface albedo into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. The technique has been successfully employed in a number of mesoscale models in case-study mode. We have taken the next step and developed a study to determine if assimilating these types of data into mesoscale models in real-time can improve short-term (648h) forecasts of temperature, relative humidity, and QPF on a daily basis over relatively large regions. Therefore, an operational modeling/assimilation system has been developed at the GHCC during the past summer that allows us to produce simulations out to 48 hours in a timely manor. The PSU/NCAR MM5 is used in a nested configuration with a 25 km grid covering the southeastern third of the US. The model has been on-line since 1 July 1998 and forecast products are posted on our web site. The satellite algorithms that generate data to be assimilated came on-line 17 October 1998. Quantitative assessment of the forecast quality is performed via traditional verification statistics. In addition, invaluable qualitative information is obtained through close collaboration with several NWSFO's who are using the MM5 products in real-time on a daily basis. The assimilation technique has been applied in an off-line mode since 17 October. Results based on bulk statistical verification of surface meteorology over the entire Southeastern US show that assimilating the GOES-derived land surface tendencies and solar radiation results in a significant reduction of the shelter air temperature and RH bias on a daily basis. In fact, the assimilation technique has produced improved temperature and RH forecasts for 97% of the 100 simulations performed to date. Work is currently underway to determine the sensitivity of the assimilation procedure to the availability of satellite data, length of assimilation period, model initialization, and synoptic-scale meteorological conditions. In addition, results from a detailed energy budget analysis using the Early Eta, our operational MM5, and the assimilation runs will help us to better understand the satellite assimilation the land-surface energy budge. Research during the spring-summer of 1999 will focus on the impact of the assimilation technique during the warm season where it is hypothesized that it can have a positive impact on QPF during conditions of weak synoptic-scale forcing.

Lapenta, William M.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of dynamical downscaling in a fully coupled regional earth system model

A set of decadal simulations has been completed and evaluated for gains using the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to dynamically downscale data from a global Earth system model and two atmospheric reanalyses. RASM is a fully coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice regional Earth system model. Nudging to the forcing data is applied to approximately the top half of the atmospheric domain. RASM simulations were also completed with a modification to the atmospheric physics for evaluating changes to the modeling system. The results show that for the top half of the atmosphere, the RASM simulations follow closely to that of the forcing data, regardless of the forcing data. The results for the lower half of the atmosphere, as well as the surface, show a clustering of atmospheric state and surface fluxes based on the modeling system. At all levels of the atmosphere the imprint of the weather from the forcing data is present as indicated in the pattern of the annual means. Biases, in comparison to reanalyses, are evident in the Earth system model forced simulations for the top half of the atmosphere but are not present in the lower atmosphere. This suggests that bias correction is not needed for fully coupled dynamical downscaling simulations. While the RASM simulations tended to go to the same mean state for the lower atmosphere, there are a differences in the variability and changes of weather patterns across the ensemble of simulations. These differences in the weather result in variances in the sea ice and oceanic states.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

Sensitivity of Air Quality to Potential Future Climate Change and Emissions in the United States and Major Cities

Simulated present and future air quality is compared for the years 2006e2010 and 2048e2052 over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Regionally downscaled present and future climate results are developed using GISS and the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model. Present and future emissions are estimated using MARKAL 9R model. O3 and PM(sub 2.5) sensitivities to precursor emissions for the years 2010 and 2050 are calculated using CMAQDDM (Direct Decoupled Method). We find major improvements in future U.S. air quality including generally decreased MDA8 (maximum daily 8-hr average O3) mixing ratios and PM(sub 2.5) concentrations and reduced frequency of NAAQS O3 standard exceedances in most major U.S. cities. The Eastern and Pacific U.S. experience the largest reductions in summertime seasonal average MDA8 (up to 12 ppb) with localized decreases in the 4th highest MDA8 of the year, decreasing by up to 25 ppb. Results from a Climate Penalty (CP) scenario isolate the impact of climate change on air quality and show that future climate change tends to increase O3 mixing ratios in some regions of the U.S., with climate change causing increases of over 10 ppb in the annual 4th highest MDA8 in Los Angeles. Seasonal average PM(sub 2.5) decreases (2-4 microgram m(exp -3)) over the Eastern U.S. are accounted for by decreases in sulfate and nitrate concentrations resulting from reduced mobile and point source emissions of NO(sub x) and SO(sub x).

Projecting emissions↗

DOE OSTI2023

The suitability of differentiable, physics-informed machine learning hydrologic models for ungauged regions and climate change impact assessment

As a genre of physics-informed machine learning, differentiable process-based hydrologic models (abbreviated as δ or delta models) with regionalized deep-network-based parameterization pipelines were recently shown to provide daily streamflow prediction performance closely approaching that of state-of-the-art long short-term memory (LSTM) deep networks. Meanwhile, δ models provide a full suite of diagnostic physical variables and guaranteed mass conservation. Here, we ran experiments to test (1) their ability to extrapolate to regions far from streamflow gauges and (2) their ability to make credible predictions of long-term (decadal-scale) change trends. We evaluated the models based on daily hydrograph metrics (Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, etc.) and predicted decadal streamflow trends. For prediction in ungauged basins (PUB; randomly sampled ungauged basins representing spatial interpolation), δ models either approached or surpassed the performance of LSTM in daily hydrograph metrics, depending on the meteorological forcing data used. They presented a comparable trend performance to LSTM for annual mean flow and high flow but worse trends for low flow. For prediction in ungauged regions (PUR; regional holdout test representing spatial extrapolation in a highly data-sparse scenario), δ models surpassed LSTM in daily hydrograph metrics, and their advantages in mean and high flow trends became prominent. In addition, an untrained variable, evapotranspiration, retained good seasonality even for extrapolated cases. The δ models' deep-network-based parameterization pipeline produced parameter fields that maintain remarkably stable spatial patterns even in highly data-scarce scenarios, which explains their robustness. Combined with their interpretability and ability to assimilate multi-source observations, the δ models are strong candidates for regional and global-scale hydrologic simulations and climate change impact assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2010

Using Transport Diagnostics to Understand Chemistry Climate Model Ozone Simulations

We demonstrate how observations of N2O and mean age in the tropical and midlatitude lower stratosphere (LS) can be used to identify realistic transport in models. The results are applied to 15 Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) participating in the 2010 WMO assessment. Comparison of the observed and simulated N2O/mean age relationship identifies models with fast or slow circulations and reveals details of model ascent and tropical isolation. The use of this process-oriented N2O/mean age diagnostic identifies models with compensating transport deficiencies that produce fortuitous agreement with mean age. We compare the diagnosed model transport behavior with a model's ability to produce realistic LS O3 profiles in the tropics and midlatitudes. Models with the greatest tropical transport problems show the poorest agreement with observations. Models with the most realistic LS transport agree more closely with LS observations and each other. We incorporate the results of the chemistry evaluations in the SPARC CCMVal Report (2010) to explain the range of CCM predictions for the return-to-1980 dates for global (60 S-60 N) and Antarctic column ozone. Later (earlier) Antarctic return dates are generally correlated to higher (lower) vortex Cl(sub y) levels in the LS, and vortex Cl(sub y) is generally correlated with the model's circulation although model Cl(sub y) chemistry or Cl(sub y) conservation can have a significant effect. In both regions, models that have good LS transport produce a smaller range of predictions for the return-to-1980 ozone values. This study suggests that the current range of predicted return dates is unnecessarily large due to identifiable model transport deficiencies.

Strahan, S. E.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Completing below-ground carbon budgets for pastures, recovering forests, and mature forests of Amazonia

This progress report covers the following efforts initiated for the year: year-round monthly soil CO2 flux measurements were started in both primary and secondary forests and in managed and degraded pastures; root sorting and weighing has begun and all four ecosystems at Paragominas have been analyzed through samples; regional modeling of soil water dynamics and minimum rooting depth has been done and the RADAMBRASIL soils database has been digitized and a 20 year record of the precipitation for the region has been produced, along with a hydrological ('bucket-tipping') model that will run within a GIS framework; prototype tension lysimeters have been designed and installed in soil pits to begin assessing the importance of DOC as a source of organic matter in deep soils; and many publications, listed in this document, have resulted from this year's research. Two of the papers published are included with this annual report document.

Davidson, Eric A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Hurricane Katrina in the Simple Cloud‐Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model v1

Climate models are important tools for advancing understanding and prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs). Traditional global climate models, however, do not have the ability to properly simulate TC intensity due to their coarse horizontal resolution. Regional models can be run at convection‐permitting resolutions, but these models are often strongly influenced by the data used in the lateral boundary forcing, and domain choice can have a large impact on the simulation. Cloud‐resolving global climate models have demonstrated great potential for realism in TC simulations, and in this study we focus specifically on the Simple Cloud‐Resolving Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) v1 configuration. We evaluate SCREAMv1 against the observational record and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run at a convection‐permitting resolution with Hurricane Katrina as our case study. We found that both models produced realistic simulations of Hurricane Katrina. SCREAMv1 demonstrated skill in simulating TC track, size, and intensity, while the model produced an excessive amount of precipitation. In comparison, WRF more accurately simulated TC precipitation and intensity, although the TC wind extent was smaller than the observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility (CERF) Model: High-Resolution Power Plant Siting

Abstract This presentation gives an overview of the geospatial power plant siting model CERF. CERF (Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility) is an open source Python package developed under the Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modeling (IM3) Project at PNNL. This presentation covers an overview of how the CERF model works, walks through various power plant siting analyses, and discusses future research opportunities for the model. The CERF model can be accessed at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/cerf. PNNL Information Release Number: PNNL-SA-207336 Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program.

Mongird, Kendall [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

NASA NTRS2013

Chemical Enrichment and Physical Conditions in IZw18*

Low-metallicity star-forming dwarf galaxies are prime targets to understand the chemical enrichment of the interstellar medium. The H I region contains the bulk of the mass in blue compact dwarfs, and it provides important constraints on the dispersal and mixing of heavy elements released by successive star-formation episodes. The metallicity of the H I region is also a critical parameter to investigate the future star-formation history, as metals provide most of the gas cooling that will facilitate and sustain star formation. Aims. Our primary objective is to study the enrichment of the H I region and the interplay between star-formation history and metallicity evolution. Our secondary obje ctive is to constrain the spatial- and time-scales over which the HI and H II regions are enriched, and the mass range of stars responsible for the heavy element production. Finally, we aim to examine the gas heating and cooling mechanisms in the H I region. Methods. We observed the most metal-poor star-forming galaxy in the Local Universe, I Zw 18, with the Cosmic Origin Spectrograph onboard Hubble. The abundances in the neutral gas are derived from far-ultraviolet absorption-lines (H I, CIII, CIIi*, N I, OI,...) and are compared to the abundances in the H II region. Models are constructed to calculate the ionization structure and the thermal processes. We investigate the gas cooling in the HIi region through physical diagnostics drawn from the fine-structure level of C+. Results. We find that H I region abundances are lower by a factor of approx 2 as compared to the H II region. There is no differential depletion on dust between the H I and H II region. Using sulfur as a metallicity tracer, we calculate a metallicity of 1/46 Z(solar) (vs. 1/31 Z(solar) in the H II region). From the study of the C/O, [O/Fe], and N/O abundance ratios, we propose that C, N, O, and Fe are mainly produced in massive stars. We argue that the H I envelope may contain pockets of pristine gas with a metallicity essentially null. Finally, we derive the physical conditions in the H I region by investigating the C II* absorption line. The cooling rate derived from C II* is consistent with collisions with H(sup 0) atoms in the diffuse neutral gas. We calculate the star-formation rate from the CII* cooling rate assuming that photoelectric effect on dust is the dominant gas heating mechanism. Our determination is in good agreement with the values in the literature if we assume a low dust-to-gas ratio (approx 2000 times lower than the Milky Way value).

far-ultraviolet absorption-lines↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing modifications to the Abdul-Razzak and Ghan aerosol activation parameterization (version ARG2000) to improve simulated aerosol–cloud radiative effects in the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM version 13.0)

The representation of aerosol activation is a key source of uncertainty in global composition-climate model simulations of aerosol–cloud interactions. The Abdul-Razzak and Ghan (ARG) activation parameterization is used in several global and regional models that employ modal aerosol microphysics schemes. In this study, we investigate the ability of the ARG parameterization to reproduce simulations with a cloud parcel model and find its performance is sensitive to the geometric standard deviations (widths) of the lognormal aerosol modes. We recommend adjustments to three constant parameters in the ARG equations, which improve the performance of the parameterization for small mode widths and its ability to simulate activation in polluted conditions. For the accumulation mode width of 1.4 used in the Met Office Unified Model (UM), the modifications decrease the mean bias in the activated fraction of aerosols compared to a cloud parcel model from −6.6 % to +1.2 %. We implemented the improvements in the UM and compared simulated global cloud droplet concentrations with satellite observations. The simulated cloud radiative effect changes by −1.43 W m −2 (6 %) and aerosol indirect radiative forcing over the industrial period changes by −0.10 W m −2 (10 %).

Ghosh, Pratapaditya [Carnegie Mellon University, P↗

NASA NTRS1994

Gamma-ray observations of Ophiuchus with EGRET: The diffuse emission and point sources

Observations of the Ophiuchus region made with the Energetic Gamma-Ray Experiment Telescope (EGRET) on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO) during the first 2 1/2 years of operation show the diffuse emission from the interstellar gas in Ophiuchus as well as variable emission from two point sources. The gamma-ray emission is modeled in terms of cosmic-ray interactions with atomic and molecular hydrogen in Ophiuchus and with low-energy photons along the line of sight. The model also includes the flux from the two point sources and an isotropic diffuse contribution. The cosmic-ray density is assumed to be uniform. The derived ratio of molecular hydrogen column density to integrated CO intensity is (1.1 +/- 0.2) x 10(exp 20) H-mols/sq cm (K km/s)(exp -1). At the sensitivity and resolution of the gamma-ray data, no variation of this ratio over the modeled region is discernible, nor are any regions of enhanced cosmic-ray density apparent. The model was fitted to seven narrow energy bands to obtain the energy depedence of the gamma-ray production function and the spectra of the point sources. The derived production function is in good agreement with theoretical calculations and the local cosmic-ray electron and proton spectra. The positions of the point sources were determined from maximum likelihood analysis of the gamma-ray emission observed in excess of the diffuse model. We identify one point source with the quasar PKS 1622-253, which has an average flux, E greater than 100 MeV, of (2.5 +/- 0.5) x 10(exp -7) photons/sq cm/s and photon spectral index -1.9 +/- 0.3. The other source, denoted GRO J1631-27, has not yet been identified at other wavelengths. Its average flux, E greater than 100 MeV, is (1.1 +/- 0.4) x 10(exp -7) photons/sq cm/s; however, its spectral index is poorly determined. The spectral index and intensity of the isotropic contribution to the model agree well with the extragalactic diffuse emission derived from the SAS 2 data.

Hunter, S. D.↗