Machine learning enabled reduced-order scenario generation for stochastic analysis of solar power forecasts
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Results for “probabilistic methods”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Probabilistic Evaluation of Bolted Joints in Polymer Matrix Composites
Computational methods are described to probabilistically simulate fracture in bolted composite structures. Progressive fracture is simulated via an innovative approach independent of stress intensity factors and fracture toughness. The effect on structure damage of design variable uncertainties is quantified. The Fast Probability Integrator is used to assess the scatter in the composite structure response before and after damage. Sensitivity of the response to design variables is evaluated. The methods are demonstrated for bolted joint polymer matrix composite panels under end loads. The effects of fabrication process are included in the simulation of damage in the bolted panel. The results show that the most effective way to reduce the end displacement at fracture is to control the load and ply thickness.
Chamis, C. C.↗
The probability of a correct output from a combinational circuit
The paper discusses two methods to evaluate the signal reliability of the output of logical circuits. It is known that faults present in a circuit will not always cause the output of the circuit to be incorrect. The first method evaluates the contribution of each fault to the reliability of the circuit and requires the enumeration of the behavior of each fault in the entire fault set. The use of McCluskey and Clegg's characterization of faulty networks by evaluating the functional equivalence classes of the network is a way to reduce the amount of computation involved. The second method uses a probabilistic model of logical circuits and consists of straightforward operations which can easily be automated. The method also yields the signal reliability and has the capability of very easily specifying the individual fault probabilities of all the circuit lines independently.
Ogus, R. C.↗
Probabilistic Structural Analysis of the SRB Aft Skirt External Fitting Modification
NASA has funded several major programs (the PSAM Project is an example) to develop Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods and tools for engineers to apply in the design and assessment of aerospace hardware. A probabilistic finite element design tool, known as NESSUS, is used to determine the reliability of the Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) aft skirt critical weld. An external bracket modification to the aft skirt provides a comparison basis for examining the details of the probabilistic analysis and its contributions to the design process.
Townsend, John S.↗
Development of Advanced Life Cycle Costing Methods for Technology Benefit/Cost/Risk Assessment
The overall objective of this three-year grant is to provide NASA Langley's System Analysis Branch with improved affordability tools and methods based on probabilistic cost assessment techniques. In order to accomplish this objective, the Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory (ASDL) needs to pursue more detailed affordability, technology impact, and risk prediction methods and to demonstrate them on variety of advanced commercial transports. The affordability assessment, which is a cornerstone of ASDL methods, relies on the Aircraft Life Cycle Cost Analysis (ALCCA) program originally developed by NASA Ames Research Center and enhanced by ASDL. This grant proposed to improve ALCCA in support of the project objective by updating the research, design, test, and evaluation cost module, as well as the engine development cost module. Investigations into enhancements to ALCCA include improved engine development cost, process based costing, supportability cost, and system reliability with airline loss of revenue for system downtime. A probabilistic, stand-alone version of ALCCA/FLOPS will also be developed under this grant in order to capture the uncertainty involved in technology assessments. FLOPS (FLight Optimization System program) is an aircraft synthesis and sizing code developed by NASA Langley Research Center. This probabilistic version of the coupled program will be used within a Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF) method to determine what types of technologies would have to be infused in a system in order to meet customer requirements. A probabilistic analysis of the CER's (cost estimating relationships) within ALCCA will also be carried out under this contract in order to gain some insight as to the most influential costs and the impact that code fidelity could have on future RDS (Robust Design Simulation) studies.
Yackovetsky, Robert↗
Reliability of structural brittle materials
Traditionally, the use of brittle materials has been avoided in demanding structural applications because of their unreliability. They have been used however, due to other desirable properties, in nonstructural applications or where the mechanical load is minimal. The most common method utilized today for the design approach of brittle materials is the probabilistic, which takes into consideration the flaw and stress distribution within the brittle material. It does not take into consideration the fracture mechanics effect of strength degradation while aging under a mechanical load. This project will combine the two methods, probabilistic and fracture mechanics, into a more reliable design method for brittle materials.
Hall, W. B.↗
Probabilistic simulation of uncertainties in thermal structures
Development of probabilistic structural analysis methods for hot structures is a major activity at Lewis Research Center. It consists of five program elements: (1) probabilistic loads; (2) probabilistic finite element analysis; (3) probabilistic material behavior; (4) assessment of reliability and risk; and (5) probabilistic structural performance evaluation. Recent progress includes: (1) quantification of the effects of uncertainties for several variables on high pressure fuel turbopump (HPFT) blade temperature, pressure, and torque of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME); (2) the evaluation of the cumulative distribution function for various structural response variables based on assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; (3) evaluation of the failure probability; (4) reliability and risk-cost assessment, and (5) an outline of an emerging approach for eventual hot structures certification. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability/reliability of hot structural components can be effectively evaluated in a formal probabilistic framework. In addition, the approach can be readily extended to computationally simulate certification of hot structures for aerospace environments.
Chamis, Christos C.↗
Probabilistic simulation of uncertainties in thermal structures
Development of probabilistic structural analysis methods for hot structures is a major activity at NASA-Lewis, and consists of five program elements: (1) probabilistic loads, (2) probabilistic finite element analysis, (3) probabilistic material behavior, (4) assessment of reliability and risk, and (5) probabilistic structural performance evaluation. Attention is given to quantification of the effects of uncertainties for several variables on High Pressure Fuel Turbopump blade temperature, pressure, and torque of the Space Shuttle Main Engine; the evaluation of the cumulative distribution function for various structural response variables based on assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; evaluation of the failure probability; reliability and risk-cost assessment; and an outline of an emerging approach for eventual hot structures certification. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability/reliability of hot structural components can be effectively evaluated in a formal probabilistic framework. In addition, the approach can be readily extended to computationally simulate certification of hot structures for aerospace environments.
Chamis, C. C.↗
A probabilistic Hu-Washizu variational principle
A Probabilistic Hu-Washizu Variational Principle (PHWVP) for the Probabilistic Finite Element Method (PFEM) is presented. This formulation is developed for both linear and nonlinear elasticity. The PHWVP allows incorporation of the probabilistic distributions for the constitutive law, compatibility condition, equilibrium, domain and boundary conditions into the PFEM. Thus, a complete probabilistic analysis can be performed where all aspects of the problem are treated as random variables and/or fields. The Hu-Washizu variational formulation is available in many conventional finite element codes thereby enabling the straightforward inclusion of the probabilistic features into present codes.
Liu, W. K.↗
A review on the integration of probabilistic solar forecasting in power systems
As one of the fastest growing renewable energy sources, the integration of solar power poses great challenges to power systems due to its variable and uncertain nature. As an effective approach to promote the integration of solar power in power systems, the value of probabilistic forecasts is being increasingly recognized in the recent decade. While the current use of probabilistic forecasts in power systems is limited, enormous amount of research has been conducted to promote the adoption of probabilistic forecasts and many methods have been proposed. This paper gives a comprehensive review on how probabilistic solar forecasts are utilized in power systems to address the challenges. Potential methods to deal with uncertainties in power systems are summarized, such as probabilistic load flow models, stochastic optimization, robust optimization, and chance constraints. Additionally, specific areas where these methods can be applied are discussed and state-of-the-art studies are summarized.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA Ground-based Layered Pressure Vessels Materials Report
A significant portion of Layered Pressure Vessels (LPVs) manufactured for NASA in the 1950s and ’60s are of non-code construction. These vessels were constructed to the standards of individual manufacturers rather than an industry or consensus standard and often contain legacy or proprietary materials, which have poor or no characterization. Obtaining correct material properties is the first step in assuring vessel safety and predicting life and critical failure modes before they happen. This report details the efforts of the LPV Project related to material properties and characterization. The goal in testing materials from deconstructed vessels was to provide material characterization utilizing modern test methods that would give a strong probabilistic base as an option for future analysis. ASTM E1820, Standard Test Method for Measurement of Fracture Toughness was used for fracture toughness; ASTM E1921, Standard Test Method for Determination of Reference Temperature, T0, for Ferritic Steels in the Transition Range for transition temperature; and ASTM E647, Standard Test Method for Measurement of Fatigue Crack Growth Rates for fatigue crack growth. Particular focus was placed on determination of transition temperature through evaluation of the T0 reference temperature in accordance with ASTM E1921. Transition temperature testing allows for a probabilistic analysis of vessel materials that may be operating at temperatures below the transition from ductile tearing to brittle cleavage failure. This test method was not available at the time of construction and has proved invaluable to the characterization of older ferritic steels. The values reported are specific to the largest body of materials found in the current NASA fleet, but do not claim to be all inclusive. As demonstrated in this report, some materials contain extreme lot-to-lot variability. In some cases, this can be comfortably bounded by worst case probabilistic methods, however it is always recommended that vessel specific data be collected in as much depth as possible to ensure correct assumptions and avoid unduly restricting vessel usage.
Layered Pressure Vessel↗
How Can Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasts Be Used to Lower Costs and Improve Reliability in Power Spot Markets? A Review and Application to Flexiramp Requirements
Net load uncertainty in electricity spot markets is rapidly growing. There are five general approaches by which system operators and market participants can use probabilistic forecasts of wind, solar, and load to help manage this uncertainty. These include operator situation awareness, resource risk hedging, reserves procurement, definition of contingencies, and explicit stochastic optimization. We review these approaches, and then provide a case study in which a method for using probabilistic solar forecasts to define needs for reserves is developed and evaluated. The case study has three parts. First, we describe building blocks for enhancing the Watt-Sun solar forecasting system to produce probabilistic irradiance and power forecasts. Second, relationships between Watt-Sun forecasts for multiple sites in California and the system's need for flexible ramp capability (flexiramp) are defined by machine learning and statistical methods. Third, the performance of present methods to defining flexiramp requirements, which are not conditioned on weather and renewables forecasts, is compared with that of probabilistic solar forecast-based requirements, using a multi-timescale production costing model with an 1820-bus representation of the WECC power system. Significant potential savings in fuel and flexiramp procurement costs from using solar-informed reserve requirements are found.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Structural Deterministic Safety Factors Selection Criteria and Verification
Though current deterministic safety factors are arbitrarily and unaccountably specified, its ratio is rooted in resistive and applied stress probability distributions. This study approached the deterministic method from a probabilistic concept leading to a more systematic and coherent philosophy and criterion for designing more uniform and reliable high-performance structures. The deterministic method was noted to consist of three safety factors: a standard deviation multiplier of the applied stress distribution; a K-factor for the A- or B-basis material ultimate stress; and the conventional safety factor to ensure that the applied stress does not operate in the inelastic zone of metallic materials. The conventional safety factor is specifically defined as the ratio of ultimate-to-yield stresses. A deterministic safety index of the combined safety factors was derived from which the corresponding reliability proved the deterministic method is not reliability sensitive. The bases for selecting safety factors are presented and verification requirements are discussed. The suggested deterministic approach is applicable to all NASA, DOD, and commercial high-performance structures under static stresses.
Verderaime, V.↗
Pro2R: Procurement of Ramping Product and Regulation in CAISO Using Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasts
This presentation summarizes the objectives and findings from the project titled, "Pro2R: Coordinated Procurement of Ramping Product & Regulation in CAISO Using Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasts," funded by DOE SETO. The goal is to develop cutting edge probabilistic solar power forecasting methods, and integrate them into ISO market operations. The team has integrated in two ways: 1) to procure ramping product and regulation requirements (ancillary services) in the California ISO market, and 2) to develop an open source visitation and ramp alert related situational awareness using probabilistic forecasts. This deck also summarizes the results from the use of machine learning methods to relate probabilistic solar forecasts to the the needs for flexible ramp product in the California ISO system.
41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
A probabilistic approach to the evaluation of fatigue damage in a space propulsion system injector element
The fatigue damage of a space propulsion system component is computed using probabilistic structural analysis methods. The analysis takes into account the variations in static and dynamic loads, the uncertainty in structural damping, and the scatter in material fatigue resistance. The key elements of the probabilistic approach include: (1) a numerical engine model for describing the global component interface loads consistent with engine balance, (2) models for computing the local mode boundary conditions on the component, (3) a static structural analysis model that captures the strains at a damage critical location as a function of engine performance variables, (4) a finite element model for assessment of the random amplitude stress response due to random base and pressure excitations with uncertain power and correlation length, and (5) advanced first order reliability methods for computing the probabilities associated with the fatigue damage.
Rajagopal, K. R.↗
Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Margin Process for a Flexible Thermal Protection System
Atmospheric entry vehicle thermal protection systems are margined due to the uncertainties that exist in entry aeroheating environments and the thermal response of the materials and structures. Entry vehicle thermal protections systems are traditionally over-margined for the heat loads that are experienced along the entry trajectory by designing to survive stacked worst-case scenarios. Additionally, the conventional heat shield design and margin process offers very little insight into the risk of over-temperature during flight and the corresponding reliability of the heat shield performance. A probabilistic margin process can be used to appropriately margin the thermal protection system based on rigorously calculated risk of failure. This probabilistic margin process allows engineers to make informed aeroshell design, entry-trajectory design, and risk trades while preventing excessive margin from being applied. This study presents the methods of the probabilistic margin process and how the uncertainty analysis is used to determine the reliability of the entry vehicle thermal protection system and associated risks of failure.
Tobin, Steven A.↗
A Sparse-Grid Probabilistic Scheme for Approximation of the Runaway Probability of Electrons in Fusion Tokamak Simulation
Runaway electrons (RE) generated during magnetic disruptions present a major threat to the safe operation of plasma nuclear fusion reactors. A critical aspect of understanding RE dynamics is to calculate the runaway probability, i.e., the probability that an electron in the phase space will runaway on, or before, a prescribed time. Such probability can be obtained by solving the adjoint equation of the underlying Fokker-Planck equation that controls the electron dynamics. In this effort, we present a sparse-grid probabilistic scheme for computing the runaway probability. The key ingredient of our approach is to represent the solution of the adjoint equation as a conditional expectation, such that discretizing the differential operator reduces to the approximation of a set of integrals. Adaptive sparse grid interpolation is utilized to approximate the map from the phase space to the runaway probability. The main novelties of this effort are the integration of the sparse-grid method into the probabilistic numerical scheme for computing escape probability, and the application of the proposed method in computing RE probabilities. Two numerical examples are given to illustrate that the proposed method can achieve O(Δt) convergence, and that the local anisotropic adaptive refinement strategy (M. Stoyanov, Adaptive sparse grid construction in a context of local anisotropy and multiple hierarchical parents. In: Sparse Grids and Applications-Miami 2016, Springer, Berlin, 2018, pp. 175–199) can effectively handle the sharp transition layer between the runaway and non-runaway regions.
Yang, Minglei↗
Probabilistic structural analysis for space propulsion system components
Probabilistic design and analysis methods for the achievement of greater reliability in structural systems are especially useful in those cases where the structure operates in such severe environments as that of the Space Shuttle. Attention is presently given to the development status of a NASA-sponsored program for probabilistic structural analysis methods applicable to current and future reusable space propulsion systems. Methodologies for the assessment of structural response by means of integrated finite element and probabilistic analysis techniques are discussed, with illustrative examples.
Burnside, O. H.↗