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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2002

The Impact of Land Initialization and Assimilation on Climate Predictability and Prediction

Analysis will be presented which explores the impact of land conditions on monthly to seasonal climate simulations in a variety of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). In one set of experiments, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GDFL) AGCM is used to explore the nature of soil-moisture predictability and associated climate predictability as an initial value problem. For another set of experiments, the Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere (COLA) and the Goddard Earth Observing System 2 (GEOS-2) AGCMs are used to investigate the impact of realistic snow initialization and assimilation in retrospective climate forecasts for the northern hemisphere spring (March-June).

Schlosser, C. Adam↗
NASA NTRS2011

Predicting Hydrological Drought: Relative Contributions of Soil Moisture and Snow Information to Seasonal Streamflow Prediction Skill

in this study we examine how knowledge of mid-winter snow accumulation and soil moisture conditions contribute to our ability to predict streamflow months in advance. A first "synthetic truth" analysis focuses on a series of numerical experiments with multiple sophisticated land surface models driven with a dataset of observations-based meteorological forcing spanning multiple decades and covering the continental United States. Snowpack information by itself obviously contributes to the skill attained in streamflow prediction, particularly in the mountainous west. The isolated contribution of soil moisture information, however, is found to be large and significant in many areas, particularly in the west but also in region surrounding the Great Lakes. The results are supported by a supplemental, observations-based analysis using (naturalized) March-July streamflow measurements covering much of the western U.S. Additional forecast experiments using start dates that span the year indicate a strong seasonality in the skill contributions; soil moisture information, for example, contributes to kill at much longer leads for forecasts issued in winter than for those issued in summer.

Koster, R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flutter Prediction Report in Support of the High Angle Working Group at the Third Aeroelastic Prediction Workshop

This paper presents a summary of the computational flutter results associated with the AIAA third Aeroelastic Prediction Workshop (AePW-3) High Angle Working Group (HAWG). The computational results are compared against the experimental data collected during the Pitch and Plunge Apparatus (PAPA) Benchmark Supercritical Wing (BSCW) test campaign conducted in the Transonic Dynamics Tunnel (TDT) at NASA Langley Research Center thirty years ago. During that test several flutter points were identified at transonic conditions. One of these points, specifically near Mach 0.8 and 5° angle of attack, became a focal point of the computational challenge with in HAWG. Various fidelity time-domain, Reduced Order Model (ROM) and Linearized Frequency Domain (LFD) methods were used by seven participating teams. While there are encouraging trends in the computational results, the range of the predicted flutter dynamic pressure is still quite large due to the stall flutter mechanism. A description of each participating team’s software and methods is included.

Pawel Chwalowski↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating skill in predicting the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation in initialized decadal climate prediction hindcasts in E3SMv1 and CESM1 using two different initialization methods and a small set of start years

Abstract It is a daunting challenge to conduct initialized hindcasts with enough ensemble members and associated start years to form a drifted climatology from which to compute the anomalies necessary to quantify the skill of the hindcasts when compared to observations. This limits the ability to experiment with case studies and other applications where only a few initial years are needed. Here we run a set of hindcasts with CESM1 and E3SMv1 using two different initialization methods for a limited set of start years and use the respective uninitialized free-running historical simulations to form the model climatologies. Since the drifts from the observed initial states in the hindcasts toward the uninitialized model state are large and rapid, after a few years the drifted initialized models approach the uninitialized model climatological errors. Therefore, hindcasts from the limited start years can use the uninitialized climatology to represent the drifted model states after about lead year 3, providing a means to compute forecast anomalies in the absence of a large hindcast sample. There is comparable skill for predicting spatial patterns of multi-year Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies in the domain of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation using this method compared to the conventional methodology with a large hindcast data set, though there is a model dependence to the drifts in the two initialization methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Predicting laser weld reliability with stochastic reduced-order models. Predicting laser weld reliability

Laser welds are prevalent in complex engineering systems and they frequently govern failure. The weld process often results in partial penetration of the base metals, leaving sharp crack-like features with a high degree of variability in the geometry and material properties of the welded structure. Furthermore, accurate finite element predictions of the structural reliability of components containing laser welds requires the analysis of a large number of finite element meshes with very fine spatial resolution, where each mesh has different geometry and/or material properties in the welded region to address variability. We found that traditional modeling approaches could not be efficiently employed. Consequently, a method is presented for constructing a surrogate model, based on stochastic reduced-order models, and is proposed to represent the laser welds within the component. Here, the uncertainty in weld microstructure and geometry is captured by calibrating plasticity parameters to experimental observations of necking as, because of the ductility of the welds, necking – and thus peak load – plays the pivotal role in structural failure. The proposed method is exercised for a simplified verification problem and compared with the traditional Monte Carlo simulation with rather remarkable results.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Investigation of boundary-layer wind predictions during nocturnal low-level jet events using the Weather Research and Forecasting model

Simulations of two periods featuring three consecutive low level jet (LLJ) events in the US Upper Great Plains during the autumn of 2011 were conducted to explore the impacts of various setup configurations and physical process models on simulated flow parameters within the lowest 200 m above the surface, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Sensitivities of simulated flow parameters to the horizontal and vertical grid spacing, planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface model (LSM) physics options, were assessed. Data from a Light Detection and Ranging (lidar) system, deployed to the Weather Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP; Finley et al. 2013) were used to evaluate the accuracy of simulated wind speed and direction at 80 m above the surface, as well as their vertical distributions between 120 and 40 m, covering the typical span of contemporary tall wind turbines. All of the simulations qualitatively captured the overall diurnal cycle of wind speed and stratification, producing LLJs during each overnight period, however large discrepancies occurred at certain times for each simulation in relation to the observations. 54-member ensembles encompassing changes of the above discussed configuration parameters displayed a wide range of simulated vertical distributions of wind speed and direction, and potential temperature, reflecting highly variable representations of stratification during the weakly stable overnight conditions. Root mean square error (RMSE) statistics show that different ensemble members performed better and worse in various simulated parameters at different times, with no clearly superior configuration . Simulations using a PBL parameterization designed specifically for the stable conditions investigated herein provided superior overall simulations of wind speed at 80 m, demonstrating the efficacy of targeting improvements of physical process models in areas of known deficiencies. However, the considerable magnitudes of the RMSE values of even the best performing simulations indicate ample opportunities for further improvements.

Mirocha, Jeff D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of the metabolic modeling pipeline in KBase to categorize reactions, predict essential genes, and predict pathways in an isolate genome

The DOE Systems Biology Knowledgebase (KBase) platform offers a range of powerful tools for the reconstruction, refinement, and analysis of genome-scale metabolic models built from microbial isolate genomes. In this chapter, we describe and demonstrate these tools in action with an analysis of isoprene production in the Bacillus subtilis DSM genome. Two different methods are applied to build initial metabolic models for the DSM genome, then the models are gapfilled in three different growth conditions. Next, flux balance analysis (FBA) and flux variability analysis (FVA) techniques are applied to both study the growth of these models in minimal media and classify reactions within each model based on essentiality and functionality. The models are applied with the FBA method to predict essential genes, which are then compared to an updated list of essential genes obtained for B. subtilis 168, a very similar strain to the DSM isolate. The models are also applied to simulate Biolog growth conditions, and these results are compared with Biolog data collected for B. subtilis 168. Finally, the DSM metabolic models are applied to explore the pathways and genes responsible for producing isoprene in this strain. These studies demonstrate the accuracy and utility of models generated from the KBase pipelines, as well as exploring the tools available for analyzing these models.

DOE knowledgebase↗
DOE OSTI2014

Bridging the Transition from Mesoscale to Microscale Turbulence in Numerical Weather Prediction Models

With a focus towards developing multiscale capabilities in numerical weather prediction models, the specific problem of the transition from the mesoscale to the microscale is investigated. For that purpose, idealized one-way nested mesoscale to large-eddy simulation (LES) experiments were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting model framework. It is demonstrated that switching from one-dimensional turbulent diffusion in the mesoscale model to three-dimensional LES mixing does not necessarily result in an instantaneous development of turbulence in the LES domain. However, very large fetches are needed for the natural transition to turbulence to occur. The computational burden imposed by these long fetches necessitates the development of methods to accelerate the generation of turbulence on a nested LES domain forced by a smooth mesoscale inflow. To that end, four new methods based upon finite amplitude perturbations of the potential temperature field along the LES inflow boundaries are developed, and investigated under convective conditions. Each method accelerated the development of turbulence within the LES domain, with two of the methods resulting in a rapid generation of production and inertial range energy content associated to microscales that is consistent with non-nested simulations using periodic boundary conditions. The cell perturbation approach, the simplest and most efficient of the best performing methods, was investigated further under neutral and stable conditions. Successful results were obtained in all the regimes, where satisfactory agreement of mean velocity, variances and turbulent fluxes, as well as velocity and temperature spectra, was achieved with reference non-nested simulations. In contrast, the non-perturbed LES solution exhibited important energy deficits associated to a delayed establishment of fully-developed turbulence. The cell perturbation method has negligible computational cost, significantly accelerates the generation of realistic turbulence, and requires minimal parameter tuning, with the necessary information relatable to mean inflow conditions provided by the mesoscale solution.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A microstructure-based modeling approach to predict the mechanical properties of Zr alloy with hydride precipitates

In nuclear reactors, hydrides can form in fuel cladding due to hydrogen absorption in ZIrcaloy and cause embrittlement. This work presents a microstructure-based finite element model to predict the stress-strain response of Zircaloy containing hydrides. Quantitative microstructural details extracted from scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images were used to generate heterogeneous microstructures including the morphology and spatial distribution of hydrides. The constitutive material model for zircaloy in this study is based on crystal plasticity theory which considers the hexagonal close-packed (HCP) atomic structure of Zircaloy material. The hydrides were modeled as brittle material along with a damage model. Hydride formation inside the zircoloy matrix results in residual stress. This phenomenon is also captured in this model. A parametric study has been conducted to understand the effect of volume fraction, orientation, and lamellae thickness of the hydride phase on the mechanical properties of the overall material.

Kulkarni, Shank S.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Evaluation of mineral reactive surface area estimates for prediction of reactivity of a multi-mineral sediment

Our limited understanding of mineral reactive surface area contributes to significant uncertainties in quantitative simulations of reactive chemical transport in subsurface processes. Continuum formulations for reactive transport typically use a number of different approximations for reactive surface area, including geometric, specific, and effective surface area. In this work, reactive surface area estimates are developed and evaluated for their ability to predict dissolution rates in a well-stirred flow-through reactor experiment using disaggregated samples from the Nagaoka pilot CO 2 injection site (Japan). The disaggregated samples are reacted with CO 2 acidified synthetic brine under conditions approximating the field conditions and the evolution of solute concentrations in the reactor effluent is tracked over time. The experiments, carried out in fluid-dominated conditions at a pH of 3.2 for 650 h, resulted in substantial dissolution of the sample and release of a disproportionately large fraction of the divalent cations. Traditional reactive surface area estimation methods, including an adjusted geometric surface area and a BET-based surface area, are compared to a newly developed image-based method. Continuum reactive transport modeling is used to determine which of the reactive surface area models provides the best match with the effluent chemistry from the well-stirred reactor. The modeling incorporates laboratory derived mineral dissolution rates reported in the literature and the initial modal mineralogy of the Nagaoka sediment was determined from scanning electron microscopy (SEM) characterization. The closest match with the observed steady-state effluent concentrations was obtained using specific surface area estimates from the image-based approach supplemented by literature-derived BET measurements. To capture the evolving effluent chemistry, particularly over the first 300 h of the experiment, it was also necessary to account for the grain size distribution in the sediment and the presence of a highly reactive volcanic glass phase that shows preferential cation leaching.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2018

Assessing High-Throughput Descriptors for Prediction of Transparent Conductors

The growth of materials databases has offered significant quantities of data to mine for new energy materials using high-throughput screening methodologies. One application of interest to energy and optoelectronics is the prediction of new high performing p-type transparent conductors (TCs). Yet, screening methods for such materials have never been validated over the breadth of computed materials properties. In this study, we compile an experimental data set of 74 bulk crystal structures corresponding to known state-of-the-art n-type and p-type TCs and compute a series of corresponding computational descriptor properties. Our goals are to (1) compare computational descriptors to experimentally demonstrated properties of real materials in the data set, (2) determine the ability of ground state, density functional theory (DFT)-based computational screening methodologies to identify these experimentally realized TCs, and (3) use this understanding to estimate reasonable screening cutoffs for four commonly used descriptors. First, stability calculations demonstrate that most materials in the data set have an energy above the convex hull ( E hull ) of <100 meV/atom, and we also propose a Pourbaix analysis technique to estimate moisture stability. Second, we find a lenient cutoff for the DFT PBE band gap of 0.5 eV is sufficient to include a majority of the wide gap candidates and exclude narrow gap compounds. Next, the effective mass, m *, is found to correlate weakly to conductivity in the p-type materials as compared with n-type materials, which may motivate an increase in the m * cutoff as well. Lastly, we perform an uncertainty analysis and literature comparison for the branch point energy (BPE), a qualitative descriptor for dopability. We discover the BPEs of most n-type materials to lie near the conduction band and those of most p-type materials to lie at midgap; this is a significant distinction, implying BPE to be a more definitive descriptor for n-type TC materials. By assessing the validity of this simple screening methodology via comparing experimental data to computational descriptors, we aim to motivate and strengthen future materials discovery efforts in the field of transparent conductors and beyond.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Predicting Reaction Products and Automating Reactive Trajectory Characterization in Molecular Simulations with Support Vector Machines

A machine learning-based methodology for the prediction of chemical reaction products, along with automated elucidation of mechanistic details via phase space analysis of reactive trajectories, is introduced using low-dimensional heuristic models and then applied to ab initio computer simulations of the photodissociation of acetaldehyde, an important chemical system in atmospheric chemistry. Our method is centered around training Support Vector Machines (SVMs) to identify optimal separatrices that delineate the regions of phase space that lead to different chemical reaction products. In contrast to the more common “black box” type machine learning methodologies for analyzing chemical simulation data, this SVM-based methodology allows for mechanistic insight to be gleaned from further analysis of the positioning of the phase space points used to train the SVM with respect to the separatrices. For example, a pair of phase space points that are in close proximity to each other but on opposite sides of a separatrix may be situated on opposite sides of a transition state, while phase space points occurring early in a simulation that are distant from a separatrix are likely to belong to trajectories that are highly biased toward the product state associated with the basin of attraction to which they belong. In addition to inferring mechanistic details about multiple-pathway chemical reactions, our method can also be used to increase reactive trajectory sampling efficiency in molecular simulations via rejection sampling, with trajectories leading to undesired product states being identified and terminated early in the simulation rather than being carried to completion.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗