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NASA NTRS2018

Prediction Skill of U.S. Flash Droughts in Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) Model Hindcasts

Droughts that establish themselves over a short period of time (weeks to a few months), referred to as flash droughts, can have devastating impacts on agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. The ability to predict such droughts in advance would greatly enhance our preparation for them and potentially reduce their impacts. The sub-seasonal time scale at which flash droughts occur emphasizes the importance of producing forecasts at weekly or finer intervals that extend beyond the numerical weather prediction time frame. Here we assess the ability of eight global forecast systems, each participating in the Sub-seasonal Experiment project (SubX), to predict key features associated with rapidly developing droughts over the United States during the last two decades. MERRA2 reanalysis is used as observations. Prediction skill for temperature and precipitation anomalies during these events is limited to the first 1-2 weeks after initialization for most hindcasts. However, there are some hindcasts in which large anomalies are well predicted 3-4 weeks or more in advance. The physical mechanisms that are key to the development of surface anomalies, including quasi-stationary atmospheric waves, were also evaluated. Most hindcasts were unable to capture the development or progression of such drought-inducing circulation features more than 1-2 weeks in advance.

Deangelis, Anthony M.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Annual Variations in Water Storage and Precipitation in the Amazon Basin: Bounding Sink Terms in the Terrestrial Hydrological Balance using GRACE Satellite Gravity Data

We combine satellite gravity data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and precipitation measurements from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), over the period from mid-2002 to mid-2006, to investigate the relative importance of sink (runoff and evaporation) and source (precipitation) terms in the hydrological balance of the Amazon Basin. When linear and quadratic terms are removed, the time series of land water storage variations estimated from GRACE exhibits a dominant annual signal of 250 mm peak-to-peak, which is equivalent to a water volume change of approximately 1800 cubic kilometers. A comparison of this trend with accumulated (i.e., integrated) precipitation shows excellent agreement and no evidence of basin saturation. The agreement indicates that the net runoff and evaporation contributes significantly less than precipitation to the annual hydrological mass balance. Indeed, raw residuals between the detrended water storage and precipitation anomalies range from plus or minus 40 mm. This range is consistent with streamflow measurements from the region, although the latter are characterized by a stronger annual signal than ow residuals, suggesting that runoff and evaporation may act to partially cancel each other.

Crowley, John W.↗

NASA NTRS2022

A NASA-Air Force Precipitation Analysis for Near-Real-Time Operations

This article describes a new precipitation analysis algorithm developed by NASA for time-sensitive operations at the United States Air Force. Implemented as part of the Land Information System—a land modeling and data assimilation software framework—this NASA–Air Force Precipitation Analysis (NAFPA) combines numerical weather prediction model outputs with rain gauge measurements and satellite estimates to produce global, gridded 3-h accumulated precipitation fields at approximately 10-km resolution. Input observations are subjected to quality control checks before being used by the Bratseth analysis algorithm that converges to optimal interpolation. NAFPA assimilates up to 3.5 million observations without artificial data thinning or selection. To evaluate this new approach, a multiyear reanalysis is generated and intercompared with eight alternative precipitation products across the contiguous United States, Africa, and the monsoon region of eastern Asia. NAFPA yields superior accuracy and correlation over low-latency (up to 14 h) alternatives (numerical weather prediction and satellite retrievals), and often outperforms high-latency (up to 3.5 months) products, although the details for the latter vary by region and product. The development of NAFPA offers a high-quality, near-real-time product for use in meteorological, land surface, and hydrological research and applications.

Africa↗

DOE OSTI2021

Molecular thermodynamics for scaling prediction: Case of membrane distillation

Membrane distillation (MD) for water treatment is significantly impaired by the scaling of dissolved minerals. The type and content of minerals generally measured as total dissolved solids (TDS) in hypersaline brines not only reduce the MD flux but also control the scaling behavior on the membrane surface. The scaling-induced pore blockage further reduces water flux and eventually leads to membrane wetting. The scaling problem is even more pronounced in the treatment of produced water (PW) as it contains 3–7 times higher TDS concentrations, compared to seawater. Theoretically, the necessary conditions for a salt to precipitate can be traced from its solubility product constant and activity of the constituents within the solution. Therefore, a comprehensive thermodynamic model is necessary to represent the electrolyte behavior and to predict the precipitation of different salts in a complex solution like PW. We pursued electrolyte Nonrandom Two Liquid Theory (eNRTL), a state-of-the-art electrolyte model, to address the PW fluid phase equilibria. With a fully parameterized eNRTL model, we predicted salt precipitations in two different PW samples and compared the results against the experimental findings. Furthermore, here we forecast the precipitation of salts in response to the change in PW concentration and temperature in the MD operation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Precipitation-site competition in duplex stainless steels: Cu clusters vs spinodal decomposition interfaces as nucleation sites during thermal aging

Competing microstructural evolution mechanisms can exist simultaneously when duplex stainless steels are operating for several decades in a high temperature service environment. Such competition between different microstructural evolution pathways can be difficult to ascertain using simple model alloy systems necessitating detailed structural and compositional analysis of phase transformation mechanisms in complex alloys Thus, in this study duplex stainless steels with complex but well understood chemistries were used to investigate the relative importance of different heterogeneous nucleation sites – specifically spinodal decomposition and Cu clustering – on precipitation of Ni-Si-Mn particles during long term thermal aging. Precipitation of Ni-Si-Mn particles in duplex stainless steels and ferritic steels during thermal aging and irradiation is known to have profound effect on mechanical properties. Using duplex stainless steels with custom modified compositions along with atom probe tomography characterization and first-passage kinetic Monte Carlo (FPKMC) simulations it is revealed that while the interface between Cr and Fe formed during spinodal decomposition can be a pathway for diffusion of Ni, Si, Mn, and Cu, it is not a site that encourages precipitation of Ni-Si-Mn rich particles. Instead, the presence of a higher concentration of Cu in these steels leads to formation of small Cu clusters with high energy interfaces that act as nucleation sites for Ni-Si-Mn particles because of its strong interaction particularly with Ni increasing the chemical driving force for precipitation. These results will help inform predictive models for the use of duplex stainless steels and other precipitation-hardened alloys for extended operation at high temperatures.

Duplex stainless steel, Thermal aging, Precipitati↗

NASA NTRS1987

Predictions of the electrical conductivity and charging of the aerosols in Titan's atmosphere

Computational results are given for Titan atmosphere aerosol electrical conductivity and charge at altitudes up to 400 km, together with a consideration of ionization from such sources as galactic cosmic rays and electron precipitation from the Saturnian magnetosphere. Predicted conductivity shows the existence of substantial electron concentrations up to the Titan surface. At altitudes of more than 100 km, and aerosol concentrations greater than 10/cu cm, electron/positive ion-recombination is found to be controlled by the recombination of the aerosols' surfaces rather than by the gas-kinetic recombination rate.

Borucki, W. J.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Numerical simulation of cloud and precipitation structure during GALE IOP-2

A regional scale model, LAMPS (Limited Area Mesoscale Prediction System), is used to investigate cloud and precipitation structure that accompanied a short wave system during a portion of GALE IOP-2. A comparison of satellite imagery and model fields indicates that much of the large mesoscale organization of condensation has been captured by the simulation. In addition to reproducing a realistic phasing of two baroclinic zones associated with a split cold front, a reasonable simulation of the gross mesoscale cloud distribution has been achieved.

Robertson, F. R.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Potential Predictability of U.S. Summer Climate with "Perfect" Soil Moisture

The potential predictability of surface-air temperature and precipitation over the United States continent was assessed for a GCM forced by observed sea surface temperatures and an estimate of observed ground soil moisture contents. The latter was obtained by substituting the GCM simulated precipitation, which is used to drive the GCM's land-surface component, with observed pentad-mean precipitation at each time step of the model's integration. With this substitution, the simulated soil moisture correlates well with an independent estimate of observed soil moisture in all seasons over the entire US continent. Significant enhancements on the predictability of surface-air temperature and precipitation were found in boreal late spring and summer over the US continent. Anomalous pattern correlations of precipitation and surface-air temperature over the US continent in the June-July-August season averaged for the 1979-2000 period increased from 0.01 and 0.06 for the GCM simulations without precipitation substitution to 0.23 and 0.3 1, respectively, for the simulations with precipitation substitution. Results provide an estimate for the limits of potential predictability if soil moisture variability is to be perfectly predicted. However, this estimate may be model dependent, and needs to be substantiated by other modeling groups.

Yang, Fanglin↗

DOE OSTI2020

Indicator Patterns of Forced Change Learned by an Artificial Neural Network

Abstract Many problems in climate science require the identification of signals obscured by both the “noise” of internal climate variability and differences across models. Following previous work, we train an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict the year of a given map of annual‐mean temperature (or precipitation) from forced climate model simulations. This prediction task requires the ANN to learn forced patterns of change amidst a background of climate noise and model differences. We then apply a neural network visualization technique (layerwise relevance propagation) to visualize the spatial patterns that lead the ANN to successfully predict the year. These spatial patterns thus serve as “reliable indicators” of the forced change. The architecture of the ANN is chosen such that these indicators vary in time, thus capturing the evolving nature of regional signals of change. Results are compared to those of more standard approaches like signal‐to‐noise ratios and multilinear regression in order to gain intuition about the reliable indicators identified by the ANN. We then apply an additional visualization tool (backward optimization) to highlight where disagreements in simulated and observed patterns of change are most important for the prediction of the year. This work demonstrates that ANNs and their visualization tools make a powerful pair for extracting climate patterns of forced change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1984

An energy balance climate model with cloud feedbacks

The present two-level global climate model, which is based on the atmosphere-surface energy balance, includes physically based parameterizations for the exchange of heat and moisture across latitude belts and between the surface and the atmosphere, precipitation and cloud formation, and solar and IR radiation. The model field predictions obtained encompass surface and atmospheric temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and cloudiness. In the model integrations presented, it is noted that cloudiness is generally constant with changing temperature at low latitudes. High altitude cloudiness increases with temperature, although the cloud feedback effect on the radiation field remains small because of compensating effects on thermal and solar radiation. The net global feedback by the cloud field is negative, but small.

Roads, J. O.↗

NASA NTRS2011

GPM Mission Overview

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission is an international satellite mission to unify and advance precipitation measurements from a constellation of research and operational sensors to provide "next-generation" precipitation products. Relative to current global rainfall products, GPM data products will be characterized by: (1) more accurate instantaneous precipitation measurements (especially for light rain and cold-season solid/snow precipitation), (2) more frequent sampling by an expanded constellation of microwave radiometers that include operational humidity sounders over land, (3) inter-calibrated microwave brightness temperatures from constellation radiometers within a unified framework, and (4) physical-based precipitation retrievals from constellation radiometers using a common a priori cloud hydrometeor database derived from GPM Core sensor measurements. The cornerstone of the GPM mission is the deployment of a Core Observatory in a unique 65 degree non-Sun-synchronous orbit to serve as a physics observatory and a calibration reference to improve precipitation measurements by a constellation of dedicated and operational passive microwave sensors. The Core Observatory will carry a KulKa-band Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) and a multi-channel (10-183 GHz) GPM Microwave Radiometer (GMI). The combined use ofDPR and GMI measurements will place greater constraints on possible solutions to radiometer retrievals to improve the accuracy and consistency of precipitation retrievals from all constellation radiometers. As a science mission with integrated application goals, GPM is designed to (1) advance precipitation measurement capability from space through combined use of active and passive microwave sensors, (2) advance the knowledge of the global water/energy cycle and freshwater availability through better description of the space-time variability of global precipitation, and (3) improve weather, climate, and hydrological prediction capabilities through more accurate and frequent measurements of instantaneous precipitation rates and time-integrated rainfall accumulation. An overview of the GPM mission concept and science activities in the United States, together with an update on international collaborations in radiometer intercalibration and ground validation, will be presented.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Develop a weather-aware climate model to understand and predict extremes and associated power outages and renewable energy shortages with uncertainty-aware and physics-informed machine learning

Focal Area(s): The focus area is predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components with a particular emphasis on extreme weather in Atmospheric Science and power outages and shortages in Energy Science. Science Challenge: Predicting weather extremes (e.g., heavy precipitation, strong wind, and large hailstones), and weather-related power system outages and shortages can mitigate economic losses, save lives, support renewables integration, and improve power system resiliency. However, currently, the poor reliability and large uncertainty associated with the weather extreme prediction in the current climate models make the problem intractable. The key challenges are: (1) physical factors like green-house gases (GHGs), aerosols, and land use and land cover (LULC) can significantly impact extreme storms, but the understanding of these impacts is limited, particularly globally; (2) the convective permitting resolutions needed to model severe convective storms and their impacts are computationally prohibitive with global climate models (GCMs); (3) interactions between weather extremes and power system outages are complex and subject to great uncertainty. Current outage prediction models are short lead (~ 3 days), which do not allow for long-time planning of energy production and distribution. Moreover, we have limited capacity to predict weather events leading to sustained shortages in a renewable-energy-dominated power system. These challenges drive motivation for mechanistic understanding and reliable and efficient predictive modeling of extremes and their impacts from the sub-seasonal to long term projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Developing Machine Learning Interatomic Potential for Fe-Cr-Ni Alloys

Accurate prediction of creep and fatigue behavior of stainless steel at elevated temperatures in hydrogen environment requires fundamental understanding of alloy-hydrogen interaction at cross-scale including bulk lattice and key defects such as vacancies, grain boundaries, surfaces, stacking faults, dislocations, and precipitates. This project aims to predict creep behavior of 347H stainless steel with H using machine learning interatomic potentials based on first-principles density functional theory simulations. The Moment Tensor Potentials platform is adopted for this work since it demonstrates a fine balance between model accuracy and computational efficiency. The potential is well trained based on large amount of high-fidelity density functional theory calculations. The validation is carried out by comparing various important properties including short range order, coefficient of thermal expansion, elastic properties, stacking fault energy, grain boundary energy, and surface energy. This work lays the foundation for reliable atomistic simulation of high temperature hydrogen attack of stainless steel.

density functional theory (DFT)↗

NASA NTRS2014

Weather Forecasting Systems and Methods

A weather forecasting system has weather forecasting logic that receives raw image data from a satellite. The raw image data has values indicative of light and radiance data from the Earth as measured by the satellite, and the weather forecasting logic processes such data to identify cumulus clouds within the satellite images. For each identified cumulus cloud, the weather forecasting logic applies interest field tests to determine a score indicating the likelihood of the cumulus cloud forming precipitation and/or lightning in the future within a certain time period. Based on such scores, the weather forecasting logic predicts in which geographic regions the identified cumulus clouds will produce precipitation and/or lighting within during the time period. Such predictions may then be used to provide a weather map thereby providing users with a graphical illustration of the areas predicted to be affected by precipitation within the time period.

Mecikalski, John↗

DOE OSTI2023

Contributions to regional precipitation change and its polar-amplified pattern under warming

Abstract The polar regions are predicted to experience the largest relative change in precipitation in response to increased greenhouse-gas concentrations, where a substantial absolute increase in precipitation coincides with small precipitation rates in the present-day climate. The reasons for this amplification, however, are still debated. Here, we use an atmospheric energy budget to decompose regional precipitation change from climate models under greenhouse-gas forcing into contributions from atmospheric radiative feedbacks, dry-static energy flux divergence changes, and surface sensible heat flux changes. The polar-amplified relative precipitation change is shown to be a consequence of the Planck feedback, which, when combined with larger polar warming, favors substantial atmospheric radiative cooling that balances increases in latent heat release from precipitation. Changes in the dry-static energy flux divergence contribute modestly to the polar-amplified pattern. Additional contributions to the polar-amplified response come, in the Arctic, from the cloud feedback and, in the Antarctic, from both the cloud and water vapor feedbacks. The primary contributor to the intermodel spread in the relative precipitation change in the polar region is also the Planck feedback, with the lapse rate feedback and dry-static energy flux divergence changes playing secondary roles. For all regions, there are strong covariances between radiative feedbacks and changes in the dry-static energy flux divergence that impact the intermodel spread. These results imply that constraining regional precipitation change, particularly in the polar regions, will require constraining not only individual feedbacks but also the covariances between radiative feedbacks and atmospheric energy transport.

Bonan, David B. (ORCID:0000000338676009)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Coupling computational thermodynamics with density-function-theory based calculations to design L12 precipitates in Fe Ni based alloys

Achieving a high-volume fraction of thermodynamically stable L12-type precipitates that are resistant to coarsening is of great importance for the development of low-cost FeNi based austenitic steels. With the aid of computational thermodynamics, this work designed two model alloys: Fe-37.4Ni-6.1Al-2.9Ti (FNAT) and Fe-45.2Ni-5.9Al-8.5Si (FNAS). Both alloys were designed to contain a similar amount of L1 2 precipitate in Fe-Ni matrix without forming other precipitates. Density-Function-Theory (DFT) calculation was coupled with computational thermodynamics to predict the critical radius at which the precipitates change shape from spherical to cuboidal. The calculation results suggest that critical radius for the FNAT alloy is about two orders of magnitude larger than that for the FeNiAlSi alloy. Phase stability and morphology of the L1 2 precipitates in these two alloys were experimentally investigated through X-ray diffraction, atom probe tomography, and scanning and transmission electron microscopy. The L1 2 precipitates in the FeNiAlSi system were found to be cuboidal and rod shaped, with much larger size than the spherical ones in the FeNiAlTi system, agreeing with the calculation results. This work suggested that coupling computational thermodynamics with DFT calculations can be reliably used to design L1 2 precipitates in FeNi based alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Computational Methods to Accelerate Development of Corrosion Resistant Coatings for Industrial Gas Turbines

Oxidation resistant overlay coatings protect the underlying superalloy component in industrial gas turbines from oxidation attack. Rate of depletion of the Al-rich β-phase in the bond coat governs the lifetime of these coatings. The applicability of a computational method in accelerating the development of corrosion resistant coatings and significantly reducing the extensive experimental effort to predict coating lifetimes and microstructural changes in three-coated Ni-based superalloys for real operational durations (20–40 kh) was undertaken in the present study. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX), and electron microprobe analysis (EPMA) were employed to characterize MCrAlY-coated superalloy substrates (1483, 247 and X4) after exposure at 900 °C in air + 10% H 2 O for up to 20,000 h. The model predicted the longest coating lifetime for the coating on X4 substrate. Precipitation of γ' in the coatings was correctly predicted for all three coating systems. Additionally, the model was able to predict the formation of topologically close packed (TCP)-phases in the investigated coating systems.

Pillai, Rishi R.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Future Climate Impacts of Direct Radiative Forcing Anthropogenic Aerosols, Tropospheric Ozone, and Long-lived Greenhouse Gases

Long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the most important driver of climate change over the next century. Aerosols and tropospheric ozone (O3) are expected to induce significant perturbations to the GHG-forced climate. To distinguish the equilibrium climate responses to changes in direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG between present day and year 2100, four 80-year equilibrium climates are simulated using a unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 110. Concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, primary organic (POA) carbon, secondary organic (SOA) carbon, black carbon (BC) aerosols, and tropospheric ozone for present day and year 2100 are obtained a priori by coupled chemistry-aerosol GCM simulations, with emissions of aerosols, ozone, and precursors based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A2. Changing anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG from present day to year 2100 is predicted to perturb the global annual mean radiative forcing by +0.18 (considering aerosol direct effects only), +0.65, and +6.54 W m(sup -2) at the tropopause, and to induce an equilibrium global annual mean surface temperature change of +0.14, +0.32, and +5.31 K, respectively, with the largest temperature response occurring at northern high latitudes. Anthropogenic aerosols, through their direct effect, are predicted to alter the Hadley circulation owing to an increasing interhemispheric temperature gradient, leading to changes in tropical precipitation. When changes in both aerosols and tropospheric ozone are considered, the predicted patterns of change in global circulation and the hydrological cycle are similar to those induced by aerosols alone. GHG-induced climate changes, such as amplified warming over high latitudes, weakened Hadley circulation, and increasing precipitation over the Tropics and high latitudes, are consistent with predictions of a number of previous GCM studies. Finally, direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols is predicted to induce strong regional cooling over East and South Asia. Wintertime rainfall over southeastern China and the Indian subcontinent is predicted to decrease because of the increased atmospheric stability and decreased surface evaporation, while the geographic distribution of precipitation is also predicted to be altered as a result of aerosol-induced changes in wind flow.

Chen, Wei-Ting↗