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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic Physics-Informed Graph Convolutional Network for Active Distribution System Voltage Prediction

Here this letter proposes a novel data-driven probabilistic physics-informed graph convolutional network (GCN) for active distribution system voltage prediction with PVs and EVs. It leverages both measurements and network topology to accurately and efficiently predict node voltages without the need for an accurate distribution system power flow model. The dropout-enabled Bayesian inference is developed to achieve uncertainty quantification of the voltage prediction. Thanks to the network model embedding, it also has robustness against topology changes, a key difference with existing machine learning-based approaches. Comparison results with other state-of-the-art machine learning methods on a realistic 759-node distribution system demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve better accuracy and robustness under different scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Benefit Analysis of Long-Duration Energy Storage in Power Systems with High Renewable Energy Shares

The integration of high shares of variable renewable energy raises challenges for the reliability and cost-effectiveness of power systems. The value of long-duration energy storage, which helps address variability in renewable energy supply across days and seasons, is poised to grow significantly as power systems shift to larger shares of variable generation such as wind and solar. This study explores the system-level services and associated benefits of long-duration energy storage on the 2050 Western Interconnection (WI). The operation of the future WI system with 85% renewable penetration is simulated using a two-stage production cost model. The impact of long duration energy storage on systemwide operations is examined for the 2050 WI system, using a range of round-trip efficiencies corresponding to four different energy storage technologies. The analysis projects the energy storage dispatch profile, system-wide production cost savings (from both diurnal and seasonal operation), and impacts on generation mix, and change in renewable generation curtailment.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Co-Simulation of Electric Power Distribution Systems and Buildings including Ultra-Fast HVAC Models and Optimal DER Control

Smart homes and virtual power plant (VPP) controls are growing fields of research with potential for improved electric power grid operation. A novel testbed for the co-simulation of electric power distribution systems and distributed energy resources (DERs) is employed to evaluate VPP scenarios and propose an optimization procedure. DERs of specific interest include behind-the-meter (BTM) solar photovoltaic (PV) systems as well as heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems. The simulation of HVAC systems is enabled by a machine learning procedure that produces ultra-fast models for electric power and indoor temperature of associated buildings that are up to 133 times faster than typical white-box implementations. Hundreds of these models, each with different properties, are randomly populated into a modified IEEE 123-bus test system to represent a typical U.S. community. Advanced VPP controls are developed based on the Consumer Technology Association (CTA) 2045 standard to leverage HVAC systems as generalized energy storage (GES) such that BTM solar PV is better utilized locally and occurrences of distribution system power peaks are reduced, while also maintaining occupant thermal comfort. An optimization is performed to determine the best control settings for targeted peak power and total daily energy increase minimization with example peak load reductions of 25+%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Monthly hydropower generation data for Western Canada to support Western-US interconnect power system studies

Hydroelectric power generation in Western Canada significantly contributes to power grid operations of the North American Western Interconnection through substantial generation, some of which is exported to the United States (U.S.). However, the lack of publicly available hydropower generation datasets poses challenges for future market projections and resource adequacy evaluations. We present a simulation-based monthly power system model-ready hydropower generation dataset for 110 facilities in British Columbia and Alberta from 1981 to 2019. These monthly hydropower generation estimates are developed from integrated hydrologic model simulations of runoff and reservoir-operated streamflow, followed by scaling that considers diversion inflow constraints based on hydropower water license information. To address the lack of comparable hydropower generation records, we conduct step-by-step evaluations for simulated runoff, regulated streamflow, and hydropower generation using available observations or estimates. The presented hydropower dataset aims to enhance the representation of hydropower resources in Western Canada, supporting power grid system studies for the Western Interconnection of the U.S. and Canada.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Downscaled Earth System Model Data for Resilient Energy System Planning

The second-generation Sup3rCC dataset provides high-resolution meteorological data generated through the downscaling of multiple earth system models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This downscaling is performed through application of a generative machine learning approach called Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r). This dataset builds on the first-generation Sup3rCC data by applying improved bias correction methods and adding downscaled precipitation to the output variables. In this presentation, we explore the output characteristics of the dataset and various validation analyses. We also present and discuss plans for the integration of this data into power system planning models using a decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) methodology.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model Predictive Control-Based Dual-Mode Operation of an Energy-Stored Quasi-Z-Source Photovoltaic Power System

The energy-stored quasi-Z-source inverter (ES-qZSI) has attracted much attention for photovoltaic (PV) power generations, due to its capability to stabilize the PV power fluctuations with simple structure and other advantages of Z-source inverter. The improved dual-mode (DM) ES-qZSI is able to support all-weather operation even at night or cloudy days when PV power is extremely low. However, the traditional proportional–integral (PI) based control suffers from complicated controller design and poor dynamic response during mode transition, due to two sets of PI control required for the daytime and night operation modes. In order to overcome that, here in this article, we propose a model predictive control strategy for the DM-ES-qZSI PV power system. The system predictive models in both day and night operating modes are derived. The control strategy is disclosed to ensure high performance of the system, through calling the predictive models and defined cost functions of the two modes within a single control loop. Simulation and experiment are carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Feedback and Oscillations: Constructing Feedback Systems for Root Cause Analysis of Oscillations in Power Grids

Dynamic phenomena linked to inverter-based resources (IBRs) have gained global attention. Several IBR-induced dynamics have caused bulk power system-connected wind or solar power plants to trip, and some have even led to widespread outages. In addition, many oscillations have been observed involving IBR power plants. In 2023, the IEEE Power & Energy Society (PES) IBR Subsynchronous Oscillations (SSO) task force published a journal article, “Real-World Subsynchronous Oscillation Events in Power Grids With High Penetrations of Inverter-Based Resources,” in which 19 IBR oscillation events were examined for their causation. Earlier in 2020, another PES task force article, “Definition and Classification of Power System Stability-Revisited & Extended,” authored by prominent academics, introduced converter-driven stability as a new category of stability. The international power grid industry community also took action by publishing the CIGRE Green Book, Power System Dynamic Modelling and Analysis in Evolving Networks (led by Babak Badrzadeh and Zia Emin) in 2024. In August 2024, the Energy Systems Integration Group (ESIG) released a practical guide led by Nick Miller, “Diagnosis and Mitigation of Observed Oscillations in IBR-Dominant Power System: A Practical Guide.” The goal of the guide is to assist practicing engineers in making initial judgments and conducting detailed analyses about oscillations. Finally, when addressing the classification of stability and oscillations, the guide emphasizes a causality-based taxonomy for grouping, such as voltage control-induced oscillations, synchronization-induced oscillations, and frequency or active power control-induced oscillations.

Fan, Lingling [Univ. of South Florida, Tampa, FL (↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-Centric Approach to Capture Non-Polynomial Nonlinear Dynamics

We propose an analytical construction of observable functions in the extended dynamic mode decomposition (EDMD) algorithm. EDMD is a numerical method for approximating the spectral properties of the Koopman operator. The choice of observable functions is fundamental for applying EDMD to nonlinear problems arising in systems and control. Existing methods either start from a set of dictionary functions and look for the subset that best fits the underlying nonlinear dynamics or rely on machine learning algorithms to “learn” observable functions. Conversely, in this paper, we start from the dynamical system model and lift it through the Lie derivatives, rendering it into a polynomial form. This proposed transformation into a polynomial form is exact and provides an adequate set of observable functions. The strength of the proposed approach is its applicability to a broader class of nonlinear dynamical systems, particularly those with nonpolynomial functions and compositions thereof. Moreover, it retains the physical interpretability of the underlying dynamical system and can be readily integrated into existing numerical libraries. We demonstrate the proposed approach with an application to electric power systems. The modeled system consists of a single generator connected to an infinite bus, where nonlinear terms include sine and cosine functions. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed procedure in off-attractor nonlinear dynamics for estimation and prediction; the observable functions obtained from the proposed construction outperform methods that use dictionary functions comprising monomials or radial basis functions.

extended dynamic mode decomposition↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Clustering-Based Scenario Generation Framework for Power Market Simulation with Wind Integration

A critical step in stochastic optimization models of power system analysis is to select a set of appropriate scenarios and significant numbers of scenario generation methods exist in the literature. This paper develops a clustering based scenario generation method, which aims to improve the performance of existing scenario generation techniques by grouping a set of correlated wind sites into clusters according to their cross-correlations. Copula based models are utilized to model spatiotemporal correlations and the Gibbs sampling is then used to generate scenarios for day-ahead markets. Our results show that the generated scenarios based on clustered wind sites outperform existing approaches in terms of reliability and sharpness and can reduce the total computational time for scenario generation and reduction significantly. The clustering-based framework can therefore provide a better support for real-world market simulations with high wind penetration.

data visualization↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hybrid Symbolic-Numerical Modeling and Parametric Stability Analysis of DC–AC Power Systems

Hybrid DC-AC power systems integrating diverse inverter-based resources (IBRs) and multi-terminal high-voltage direct current (MTDC) networks represent a promising architecture for future power grids, while introducing challenges for modeling, stability analysis, and control design. This paper develops a hybrid symbolic-numerical modeling framework and tool to characterize the parametric small-signal stability of DC-AC coupled power systems. The proposed approach constructs parametric state-space models to enable efficient representation of system dynamics under varying control parameters and network configurations, with target parameters retained as symbolic variables and the remainder treated numerically. The stability analysis framework covers eigenvalue, sensitivity, and stability boundary and region characterization. Enhanced linear matrix inequality (LMI) techniques are proposed to directly certify small-signal stability over regions of parameter space while also reducing the conservativeness and computational burden. The resulting tools and frameworks enable rapid parametric model construction across diverse grid conditions, thereby facilitating stability-informed control and operation in complex DC–AC power systems.

DC–AC power systems↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid Power Plant Bidding in Models of Future Electricity Systems

This paper proposes a stochastic model for hybrid power plants participation in day-ahead electricity markets, considering uncertainty in market prices and renewable generation. Additionally, it presents a methodology to incorporate this hybrid participation into existing production cost models (PCM), allowing the analysis and market design of future systems with high penetration of hybrids. These developments are illustrated using a wind-battery hybrid located in New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) footprint.

Kemp, Julie Mulvaney↗
DOE OSTI2021

Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution and Infrastructure Development for the United States

This report is one in a series of Electrification Futures Study (EFS) publications. The EFS is a multiyear research project to explore potential widespread electrification in the future energy system of the United States. Electrification is defined as the substitution of electricity for direct combustion of non-electricity-based fuels used to provide similar services. The EFS is specifically designed to examine electric technology advancement and adoption for end uses in the major economic sectors of the United States, electricity consumption growth and load profiles, future power system infrastructure development and operations, and economic and environmental implications of electrification. Because of the expansive scope and the multiyear duration of the study, research findings and supporting data will be published as a series of reports, with each report being released on its own time frame.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Active Learning of Microgrid Frequency Dynamics Using Neural Ordinary Differential Equations

Accurate frequency modelling of inverter‐based resource (IBR)‐dominated power systems is crucial for ensuring stable, reliable and resilient operations, particularly given their inherent low‐inertia characteristics and fast dynamics that traditional swing equation‐based models inadequately capture. This paper explores neural ordinary differential equations (Neural ODEs) as a computationally efficient, data‐driven framework for modelling power system frequency dynamics, specifically within microgrids integrating high penetrations of distributed energy resources (DERs). The developed neural ODEs framework incorporates a neural network architecture designed to capture input dynamics. By actively perturbing the system with a known signal, the Python‐based neural ODEs framework was trained using measured system states and inputs, without the need for detailed system information. The framework, tested on a model of the Cordova, AK, microgrid, achieved a goodness of fit ranging from 60% to 99% across different state variables and maintained a mean square error in the 10 -6 p.u. range under square and step excitation signals. The proposed approach demonstrated robustness to measurement noise and initial condition variations while maintaining low computational complexity suitable for real‐time power system control applications. Furthermore, transfer learning enabled the neural ODEs model to adapt to the following changes in system topology or generator dispatch, highlighting its effectiveness for dynamic microgrids with frequently evolving configurations and diverse DERs.

Aryal, Tara [South Dakota State Univ., Brookings, ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Performance Testing and Assessment of Protection Scheme Using Real-Time Hardware-in-the-Loop and IEC 61850 Standard

The main challenge of the microgrid is to design a suitable protection scheme due to the complexity of the architecture of the microgrid. The importance of the proposed protection technique is threefold. First, it presents a co-simulation platform to integrate between a simulated model on power system computer aided design (PSCAD)/real time digital simulator computer aided design (RSCAD) software’s and physical devices schweitzer engineering laboratories (SEL) 421-7 relays to protect the microgrid that includes different resources connected based on inverter interface. Second, it presents a comprehensive hardware/software setup to test the protective relays in a closed loop system and shows how to configure the protective relay’s International Electrotechnical Commission 61850 communications. Third, IEEE 1588 standard is used to provide sub nanoseconds latency between the simulated model that emulated on real time digital simulator (RTDS) and the external devices. Also, the measurement signals are synchronized between RTDS and the external devices using giga-transceiver synchronization card (GTSYNC) interface card and SEL-2488 satellite-synchronized network clock. The results showed that the co-simulation infrastructure introduces a highly dependable design, analysis, and testing environment for cyber and physical data flow in the system. Besides that, the voltages at ac/dc sides and frequency at fault condition were maintained due to the energy storage device contributions at different modes of operation.

42 ENGINEERING↗