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At least 271 records · Page 15

Astrometric microlensing probes of the isolated neutron star population with Roman

Notoriously hard to detect and study, isolated neutron stars (NSs) might provide valuable answers to fundamental questions about stellar evolution and explosion physics. With the upcoming Roman Space Telescope, scheduled for launch in 2026, a new and powerful channel for their detection will become available: astrometric microlensing. We set out to create a realistic sample of simulated gravitational microlensing events as observed by Roman with the Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey. We focus in particular on the population of NS lenses, which has until now been largely understudied. We used dedicated Galactic models tailored for application to microlensing by compact objects. In addition to populations of stars, white dwarfs, and black holes, we simulated four different NS populations with Maxwellian natal kick distributions: v = (150, 250, 350, 450) km/s. For each simulation, we applied projected Roman precision, cadence, and detectability criteria. We found that the parameter space log10 t E –log 10 θ E , which will be accessible to Roman observations, is efficient for the classification of stellar remnants. We found a feature in this space that is characteristic of NSs; using this feature, optimal samples of NS candidates can be constructed from Roman -like datasets. We describe the dependence of the observable parameter distributions on the assumed mean kick velocities. As the effects of natal kicks are very complex and mutually counteracting, we suggest that more detailed studies focused on the dynamics of NSs are needed in anticipation of Roman and future surveys. We estimate that Roman will observe approximately 11 000 microlensing events, including ~100 with NS lenses, whose photometric and astrometric signals are detectable; the event yield decreases by 38% when gap-filling low-cadence observations are not included. We make all simulated microlensing event datasets publicly available in preparation for Roman data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Exploring the Effects of Population and Employment Characteristics on Truck Flows: An Analysis of NextGen NHTS Origin-Destination Data

Truck transportation remains the dominant mode of US freight transportation because of its advantages, such as the flexibility of accessing pickup and drop-off points and faster delivery. Because of the massive freight volume transported by trucks, understanding the effects of population and employment characteristics on truck flows is critical for better transportation planning and investment decisions. The US Federal Highway Administration published a truck travel origin-destination data set as part of the Next Generation National Household Travel Survey program. This data set contains the total number of truck trips in 2020 within and between 583 predefined zones encompassing metropolitan and nonmetropolitan statistical areas within each state and Washington, DC. In this study, origin-destination-level truck trip flow data was augmented to include zone-level population and employment characteristics from the US Census Bureau. Census population and County Business Patterns data were included. The final data set was used to train a machine learning algorithm-based model, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), where the target variable is the number of total truck trips. Shapley Additive ExPlanation (SHAP) was adopted to explain the model results. Results showed that the distance between the zones was the most important variable and had a nonlinear relationship with truck flows.

Uddin, Majbah↗

Determining population densities in bimodal micellar solutions using contrast-variation small angle neutron scattering

Self-assembly of amphiphilic polymers in water is of fundamental and practical importance. Significant amounts of free unimers and associated micellar aggregates often coexist over a wide range of phase regions. The thermodynamic and kinetic properties of the microphase separation are closely related to the relative population density of unimers and micelles. Although the scattering technique has been employed to identify the structure of micellar aggregates as well as their time-evolution, the determination of the population ratio of micelles to unimers remains a challenging problem due to their difference in scattering power. In this work, using small-angle neutron scattering (SANS), we present a comprehensive structural study of amphiphilic n-dodecyl-PNIPAm polymers, which shows a bimodal size distribution in water. By adjusting the deuterium/hydrogen ratio of water, the intra-micellar polymer and water distributions are obtained from the SANS spectra. The micellar size and number density are further determined, and the population densities of micelles and unimers are calculated to quantitatively address the degree of micellization at different temperatures. Our method can be used to provide an in-depth insight into the solution properties of microphase separation, which are present in many amphiphilic systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A coupled human–natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change

Limited water availability, population growth, and climate change have resulted in freshwater crises in many countries. Jordan’s situation is emblematic, compounded by conflict-induced population shocks. Integrating knowledge across hydrology, climatology, agriculture, political science, geography, and economics, we present the Jordan Water Model, a nationwide coupled human–natural-engineered systems model that is used to evaluate Jordan’s freshwater security under climate and socioeconomic changes. The complex systems model simulates the trajectory of Jordan’s water system, representing dynamic interactions between a hierarchy of actors and the natural and engineered water environment. A multiagent modeling approach enables the quantification of impacts at the level of thousands of representative agents across sectors, allowing for the evaluation of both systemwide and distributional outcomes translated into a suite of water-security metrics (vulnerability, equity, shortage duration, and economic well-being). Model results indicate severe, potentially destabilizing, declines in freshwater security. Per capita water availability decreases by approximately 50% by the end of the century. Without intervening measures, >90% of the low-income household population experiences critical insecurity by the end of the century, receiving <40 L per capita per day. Widening disparity in freshwater use, lengthening shortage durations, and declining economic welfare are prevalent across narratives. To gain a foothold on its freshwater future, Jordan must enact a sweeping portfolio of ambitious interventions that include large-scale desalinization and comprehensive water sector reform, with model results revealing exponential improvements in water security through the coordination of supply- and demand-side measures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Elephant range and population, strontium isotopes, and genetics combine to give local-scale specificity to ivory hotspot tracking

We use Sr isotopes to increase the precision of DNA-based origin estimates of wildlife products. Population information is used to develop Sr isotope Elephant Polygons that are overlaid onto the region of origin identified by DNA assignment to determine the sources of seized ivory samples. Our approach is cognizant of isotope mixing due to isotope turnover within animals and also of the large home range of elephants or other mobile species. Genetic information from 3 different law enforcement ivory seizures suggests a region of origin confined to Kenya and Tanzania in eastern Africa. We determine characteristic 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios for each of 25 different Elephant Polygons within this region using analyses of more the 600 known-origin reference samples. Using both the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios of the seized ivory samples and elephant population estimates from individual Elephant Polygons we find that at least 75 % of the samples likely came from a single Elephant Polygon which includes the Tsavo National Parks in Kenya and the Mkomazi National Park in Tanzania. A few samples may have come from other regions, most likely from Tanzania. This study illustrates the value of combining genetics, isotope geochemistry, and population surveys in wildlife forensics studies.

Africa↗

Time-resolved CO 2 , CO, and N 2 vibrational population measurements in Ns pulse discharge plasmas

Abstract Time-resolved CO 2 and N 2 vibrational populations and translational-rotational temperature are measured in a CO 2 –N 2 plasma sustained by a ns pulse discharge burst in plane-to-plane geometry. Time-resolved, absolute number density of CO generated in the plasma is also inferred from the experimental data. CO 2 and CO vibrational populations are measured by mid-IR, tunable quantum cascade laser absorption spectroscopy, and N 2 vibrational populations are measured by the ns broadband vibrational CARS. Transient excitation of N 2 and CO 2 asymmetric stretch vibrational energy modes is detected during the discharge burst. The time-resolved rate of CO generation does not correlate with N 2 or CO 2 ( ν 3 ) vibrational temperatures, indicating that CO 2 dissociation via the vibrational excitation is insignificant at the present conditions. The rate of CO generation decreases gradually during the discharge burst. The estimated specific energy cost of the CO product is close to that of N atoms in pure nitrogen, measured previously at similar operating conditions. Comparison of the experimental data with the kinetic modeling analysis indicates that CO 2 dissociation in collisions with electronically excited N 2 molecules is the dominant channel of CO generation at the present conditions, although the inferred CO yield in these processes is significantly lower than 1. The effect of vibrational energy transfer between N 2 and CO 2 on the plasma chemical processes is insignificant. The kinetic model underpredicts a rapid reduction of the N 2 and CO 2 ( ν 3 ) vibrational temperatures during the later half of the discharge burst and in the afterglow. V–T relaxation of N 2 by N and O atoms generated in the ns pulse discharge plasma does not affect the vibrational relaxation rate in a significant way. However, rapid V–T relaxation of CO 2 by O atoms has a significant effect on the relaxation rate. The difference between the experimental data and the modeling predictions may be due to the unknown scaling of the CO 2 –O V–T rates with the vibrational quantum number.

Physics↗

Measuring stellar populations, dust attenuation and ionized gas at kpc scales in 10010 nearby galaxies using the integral field spectroscopy from MaNGA

As one of the three major experiments of the fourth-generation Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-IV), the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apatch Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey has obtained high-quality integral field spectroscopy (IFS) with a resolution of 1–2 kpc for ∼ 10 4 galaxies in the local universe during its six-year operation from July 2014 through August 2020. It is crucial to reliably measure the physical properties of the different components in each spectrum before one can use the data for any scientific study. In the past years we have made lots of efforts to develop a novel technique of full spectral fitting, which estimates a model-independent dust attenuation curve from each spectrum, thus allowing us to break the degeneracy between dust attenuation and stellar population properties when fitting the spectrum with stellar population synthesis models. We have applied our technique to the final data release of MaNGA, and obtained measurements of stellar population properties and emission line parameters, as well as the kinematics and dust attenuation of both stellar and ionized gas components. In this paper we describe our technique and the content and format of our data products. The whole dataset is publicly available in Science Data Bank with the link https://doi.org/10.57760/sciencedb.j00113.00088 .

Physics↗

Pre-screening to guide coronary artery calcium scoring for early identification of high-risk individuals in the general population

Abstract Aims To evaluate the ability of Systematic COronary Risk Estimation 2 (SCORE2) and other pre-screening methods to identify individuals with high coronary artery calcium score (CACS) in the general population. Methods and results Computed tomography-based CACS quantification was performed in 6530 individuals aged 45 years or older from the general population. Various pre-screening methods to guide referral for CACS were evaluated. Miss rates for high CACS (CACS ≥300 and ≥100) were evaluated for various pre-screening methods: moderate (≥5%) and high (≥10%) SCORE2 risk, any traditional coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factor, any Risk Or Benefit IN Screening for CArdiovascular Disease (ROBINSCA) risk factor, and moderately (>3 mg/24 h) increased urine albumin excretion (UAE). Out of 6530 participants, 643 (9.8%) had CACS ≥300 and 1236 (18.9%) had CACS ≥100. For CACS ≥300 and CACS ≥100, miss rate was 32 and 41% for pre-screening by moderate (≥5%) SCORE2 risk and 81 and 87% for high (≥10%) SCORE2 risk, respectively. For CACS ≥300 and CACS ≥100, miss rate was 8 and 11% for pre-screening by at least one CAD risk factor, 24 and 25% for at least one ROBINSCA risk factor, and 67 and 67% for moderately increased UAE, respectively. Conclusion Many individuals with high CACS in the general population are left unidentified when only performing CACS in case of at least moderate (≥5%) SCORE2, which closely resembles current clinical practice. Less stringent pre-screening by presence of at least one CAD risk factor to guide CACS identifies more individuals with high CACS and could improve CAD prevention.

Ties, Daan (ORCID:0000000164729886)↗

Biogeographic patterns in populations of marine Pseudoalteromonas atlantica isolates

Intra-specific genomic diversity is well documented in microbes. The question, however, remains whether natural selection or neutral evolution is the major contributor to this diversity. We undertook this study to estimate genomic diversity in Pseudoalteromonas atlantica populations and whether the diversity, if present, could be attributed to environmental factors or distance effects. Here, we isolated and sequenced twenty-three strains of P. atlantica from three geographically distant deep marine basins and performed comparative genomic analyses to study the genomic diversity of populations among these basins. Average nucleotide identity followed a strictly geographical pattern. In two out of three locations, the strains within the location exhibited >99.5% identity, whereas, among locations, the strains showed <98.11% identity. Phylogenetic and pan-genome analysis also reflected the biogeographical separation of the strains. Strains from the same location shared many accessory genes and clustered closely on the phylogenetic tree. Phenotypic diversity between populations was studied in ten out of twenty-three strains testing carbon and nitrogen source utilization and osmotolerance. A genetic basis for phenotypic diversity could be established in most cases but was apparently not influenced by local environmental conditions. Our study suggests that neutral evolution may have a substantial role in the biodiversity of P. atlantica.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Genomic prediction of switchgrass winter survivorship across diverse lowland populations

Abstract In the North-Central United States, lowland ecotype switchgrass can increase yield by up to 50% compared with locally adapted but early flowering cultivars. However, lowland ecotypes are not winter tolerant. The mechanism for winter damage is unknown but previously has been associated with late flowering time. This study investigated heading date (measured for two years) and winter survivorship (measured for three years) in a multi-generation population generated from two winter-hardy lowland individuals and diverse southern lowland populations. Sequencing data (311,776 markers) from 1,306 individuals were used to evaluate genome-wide trait prediction through cross-validation and progeny prediction (n = 52). Genetic variance for heading date and winter survivorship was additive with high narrow-sense heritability (0.64 and 0.71, respectively) and reliability (0.68 and 0.76, respectively). The initial negative correlation between winter survivorship and heading date degraded across generations (F1 r = −0.43, pseudo-F2 r = −0.28, pseudo-F2 progeny r = −0.15). Within-family predictive ability was moderately high for heading date and winter survivorship (0.53 and 0.52, respectively). A multi-trait model did not improve predictive ability for either trait. Progeny predictive ability was 0.71 for winter survivorship and 0.53 for heading date. These results suggest that lowland ecotype populations can obtain sufficient survival rates in the northern United States with two or three cycles of effective selection. Despite accurate genomic prediction, naturally occurring winter mortality successfully isolated winter tolerant genotypes and appears to be an efficient method to develop high-yielding, cold-tolerant switchgrass cultivars.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Worldwide Population Genomics Reveal Long-Term Stability of the Mitochondrial Genome Architecture in a Keystone Marine Plant

Mitochondrial genomes (mitogenomes) of flowering plants are composed of multiple chromosomes. Recombination within and between the mitochondrial chromosomes may generate diverse DNA molecules termed isoforms. The isoform copy number and composition can be dynamic within and among individual plants due to uneven replication and homologous recombination. Nonetheless, despite their functional importance, the level of mitogenome conservation within species remains understudied. Whether the ontogenetic variation translates to evolution of mitogenome composition over generations is currently unknown. Here we show that the mitogenome composition of the seagrass Zostera marina is conserved among worldwide populations that diverged ca. 350,000 years ago. Using long-read sequencing, we characterized the Z. marina mitochondrial genome and inferred the repertoire of recombination-induced configurations. To characterize the mitochondrial genome architecture worldwide and study its evolution, we examined the mitogenome in Z. marina meristematic region sampled in 16 populations from the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Our results reveal a striking similarity in the isoform relative copy number, indicating a high conservation of the mitogenome composition among distantly related populations and within the plant germline, despite a notable variability during individual ontogenesis. Our study supplies a link between observations of dynamic mitogenomes at the level of plant individuals and long-term mitochondrial evolution.

(sub)stoichiometric shifting↗

Genetic mapping and prediction of flowering time and plant height in a maize Stiff Stalk MAGIC population

Abstract The Stiff Stalk heterotic pool is a foundation of US maize seed parent germplasm and has been heavily utilized by both public and private maize breeders since its inception in the 1930s. Flowering time and plant height are critical characteristics for both inbred parents and their test crossed hybrid progeny. To study these traits, a 6-parent multiparent advanced generation intercross population was developed including maize inbred lines B73, B84, PHB47 (B37 type), LH145 (B14 type), PHJ40 (novel early Stiff Stalk), and NKH8431 (B73/B14 type). A set of 779 doubled haploid lines were evaluated for flowering time and plant height in 2 field replicates in 2016 and 2017, and a subset of 689 and 561 doubled haploid lines were crossed to 2 testers, respectively, and evaluated as hybrids in 2 locations in 2018 and 2019 using an incomplete block design. Markers were derived from a practical haplotype graph built from the founder whole genome assemblies and genotype-by-sequencing and exome capture-based sequencing of the population. Genetic mapping utilizing an update to R/qtl2 revealed differing profiles of significant loci for both traits between 635 of the DH lines and 2 sets of 570 and 471 derived hybrids. Genomic prediction was used to test the feasibility of predicting hybrid phenotypes based on the per se data. Predictive abilities were highest on direct models trained using the data they would predict (0.55–0.63), and indirect models trained using per se data to predict hybrid traits had slightly lower predictive abilities (0.49–0.55). Overall, this finding is consistent with the overlapping and nonoverlapping significant quantitative trait loci found within the per se and hybrid populations and suggests that selections for phenology traits can be made effectively on doubled haploid lines before hybrid data is available.

Genetics & Heredity↗

High-throughput characterization, correlation, and mapping of leaf photosynthetic and functional traits in the soybean ( Glycine max ) nested association mapping population

We report photosynthesis is a key target to improve crop production in many species including soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.]. A challenge is that phenotyping photosynthetic traits by traditional approaches is slow and destructive. There is proof-of-concept for leaf hyperspectral reflectance as a rapid method to model photosynthetic traits. However, the crucial step of demonstrating that hyperspectral approaches can be used to advance understanding of the genetic architecture of photosynthetic traits is untested. To address this challenge, we used full-range (500–2,400 nm) leaf reflectance spectroscopy to build partial least squares regression models to estimate leaf traits, including the rate-limiting processes of photosynthesis, maximum Rubisco carboxylation rate, and maximum electron transport. In total, 11 models were produced from a diverse population of soybean sampled over multiple field seasons to estimate photosynthetic parameters, chlorophyll content, leaf carbon and leaf nitrogen percentage, and specific leaf area (with R 2 from 0.56 to 0.96 and root mean square error approximately <10% of the range of calibration data). We explore the utility of these models by applying them to the soybean nested association mapping population, which showed variability in photosynthetic and leaf traits. Genetic mapping provided insights into the underlying genetic architecture of photosynthetic traits and potential improvement in soybean. Notably, the maximum Rubisco carboxylation rate mapped to a region of chromosome 19 containing genes encoding multiple small subunits of Rubisco. We also mapped the maximum electron transport rate to a region of chromosome 10 containing a fructose 1,6-bisphosphatase gene, encoding an important enzyme in the regeneration of ribulose 1,5-bisphosphate and the sucrose biosynthetic pathway. The estimated rate-limiting steps of photosynthesis were low or negatively correlated with yield suggesting that these traits are not influenced by the same genetic mechanisms and are not limiting yield in the soybean NAM population. Leaf carbon percentage, leaf nitrogen percentage, and specific leaf area showed strong correlations with yield and may be of interest in breeding programs as a proxy for yield. This work is among the first to use hyperspectral reflectance to model and map the genetic architecture of the rate-limiting steps of photosynthesis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Population-level incidence of human papillomavirus–positive oropharyngeal, cervical, and anal cancers, by smoking status

Abstract We estimated the population-level incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)–positive oropharyngeal, cervical, and anal cancers by smoking status. We combined HPV DNA genotyping data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Cancer Registry Sentinel Surveillance System with data from the Kentucky Cancer Registry and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System across smoking status. During 2004-2005 and 2014-2015 in Kentucky, most cases of oropharyngeal (63.3%), anal (59.7%), and cervical (54.9%) cancer were among individuals who ever smoked. The population-level incidence rate was higher among individuals who ever smoked than among those who never smoked for HPV-positive oropharyngeal (7.8 vs 2.1; adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.6), cervical (13.7 vs 6.8; adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.0), and anal (3.9 vs 1.6; adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.5) cancers. These findings indicate that smoking is associated with increased risk of HPV-positive oropharyngeal, cervical, and anal cancers, and the population-level burden of these cancers is higher among individuals who ever smoked.

Oncology↗

Stellar population models based on the SDSS-IV MaStar library of stellar spectra – I. Intermediate-age/old models

ABSTRACT We use the first release of the SDSS/MaStar stellar library comprising ∼9000, high S/N spectra, to calculate integrated spectra of stellar population models. The models extend over the wavelength range 0.36–1.03 µm and share the same spectral resolution ($R\sim 1800$) and flux calibration as the SDSS-IV/MaNGA galaxy data. The parameter space covered by the stellar spectra collected thus far allows the calculation of models with ages and chemical composition in the range $\rm {\mathit{ t}\gt 200 \,Myr, -2 \lt = [Z/H] \lt = + 0.35}$, which will be extended as MaStar proceeds. Notably, the models include spectra for dwarf main-sequence stars close to the core H-burning limit, as well as spectra for cold, metal-rich giants. Both stellar types are crucial for modelling λ > 0.7 µm absorption spectra. Moreover, a better parameter coverage at low metallicity allows the calculation of models as young as 500 Myr and the full account of the blue horizontal branch phase of old populations. We present models adopting two independent sets of stellar parameters (Teff, log g, [Z/H]). In a novel approach, their reliability is tested ‘on the fly’ using the stellar population models themselves. We perform tests with Milky Way and Magellanic Clouds globular clusters, finding that the new models recover their ages and metallicities remarkably well, with systematics as low as a few per cent for homogeneous calibration sets. We also fit a MaNGA galaxy spectrum, finding residuals of the order of a few per cent comparable to the state-of-art models, but now over a wider wavelength range.

Maraston, C.↗

Structural and stellar-population properties versus bulge types in Sloan Digital Sky Survey central galaxies

ABSTRACT This paper studies pseudo-bulges (P-bulges) and classical bulges (C-bulges) in Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) central galaxies using the new bulge indicator ΔΣ1, which measures relative central stellar-mass surface density within 1 kpc. We compare ΔΣ1 to the established bulge-type indicator Δ〈μe〉 from Gadotti (2009) and show that classifying by ΔΣ1 agrees well with Δ〈μe〉. ΔΣ1 requires no bulge–disc decomposition and can be measured on SDSS images out to z = 0.07. Bulge types using it are mapped on to 20 different structural and stellar-population properties for 12 000 SDSS central galaxies with masses 10.0 < log M*/M⊙ < 10.4. New trends emerge from this large sample. Structural parameters show fairly linear log–log relations versus ΔΣ1 and Δ〈μe〉 with only moderate scatter, while stellar-population parameters show a highly non-linear ‘elbow’ in which specific star formation rate remains roughly flat with increasing central density and then falls rapidly at the elbow, where galaxies begin to quench. P-bulges occupy the low-density end of the horizontal arm of the elbow and are universally star forming, while C-bulges occupy the elbow and the vertical branch and exhibit a wide range of star formation rates at a fixed density. The non-linear relation between central density and star formation rate has been seen before, but this mapping on to bulge class is new. The wide range of star formation rates in C-bulges helps to explain why bulge classifications using different parameters have sometimes disagreed in the past. The elbow-shaped relation between density and stellar indices suggests that central structure and stellar populations evolve at different rates as galaxies begin to quench.

Luo, Yifei↗

The SAMI Galaxy Survey: stellar population and structural trends across the Fundamental Plane

ABSTRACT We study the Fundamental Plane (FP) for a volume- and luminosity-limited sample of 560 early-type galaxies from the SAMI survey. Using r-band sizes and luminosities from new multi-Gaussian expansion photometric measurements, and treating luminosity as the dependent variable, the FP has coefficients a = 1.294 ± 0.039, b = 0.912 ± 0.025, and zero-point c = 7.067 ± 0.078. We leverage the high signal-to-noise ratio of SAMI integral field spectroscopy, to determine how structural and stellar population observables affect the scatter about the FP. The FP residuals correlate most strongly (8σ significance) with luminosity-weighted simple stellar population (SSP) age. In contrast, the structural observables surface mass density, rotation-to-dispersion ratio, Sérsic index, and projected shape all show little or no significant correlation. We connect the FP residuals to the empirical relation between age (or stellar mass-to-light ratio Υ⋆ ) and surface mass density, the best predictor of SSP age amongst parameters based on FP observables. We show that the FP residuals (anti)correlate with the residuals of the relation between surface density and Υ⋆ . This correlation implies that part of the FP scatter is due to the broad age and Υ⋆ distribution at any given surface mass density. Using virial mass and Υ⋆, we construct a simulated FP and compare it to the observed FP. We find that, while the empirical relations between observed stellar population relations and FP observables are responsible for most (75 per cent) of the FP scatter, on their own they do not explain the observed tilt of the FP away from the virial plane.

D’Eugenio, Francesco↗

Cherenkov Telescope Array sensitivity to the putative millisecond pulsar population responsible for the Galactic Centre excess

ABSTRACT The leading explanation of the Fermi Galactic Centre γ-ray excess is the extended emission from an unresolved population of millisecond pulsars (MSPs) in the Galactic bulge. Such a population would, along with the prompt γ-rays, also inject large quantities of electrons/positrons (e±) into the interstellar medium. These e± could potentially inverse-Compton (IC) scatter ambient photons into γ-rays that fall within the sensitivity range of the upcoming Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA). In this article, we examine the detection potential of CTA to this signature by making a realistic estimation of the systematic uncertainties on the Galactic diffuse emission model at TeV-scale γ-ray energies. We forecast that, in the event that e± injection spectra are harder than E−2, CTA has the potential to robustly discover the IC signature of a putative Galactic bulge MSP population sufficient to explain the Galactic Centre excess for e± injection efficiencies in the range of ≈2.9–74.1 per cent, or higher, depending on the level of mismodelling of the Galactic diffuse emission components. On the other hand, for spectra softer than E−2.5, a reliable CTA detection would require an unphysically large e± injection efficiency of ${\gtrsim} 158{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$. However, even this pessimistic conclusion may be avoided in the plausible event that MSP observational and/or modelling uncertainties can be reduced. We further find that, in the event that an IC signal were detected, CTA can successfully discriminate between an MSP and a dark matter origin for the radiating e±.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗