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At least 271 records · Page 15

Elastic-wave sensitivity-guided adaptive seismic survey design for cost-effective monitoring of geological carbon storage

Effective seismic monitoring is essential for verifying CO₂ containment, detecting potential leakage, and optimizing operational decisions in geologic carbon storage. Here, this study presents a time-adaptive, elastic-wave sensitivity-guided framework for designing cost-effective seismic monitoring layouts for tracking CO₂ plume migration. The method is based on elastic-wave sensitivity analysis, which quantifies how variations in subsurface properties impact seismic wavefields. Two complementary design strategies are developed: one based on selecting a fixed number of seismic sources (Method A), and the other based on selecting source–receiver pairs contributing to a fixed fraction of cumulative elastic-wave sensitivity energy (Method B). The optimization workflow to identify source–receiver configurations with the highest detection potential is demonstrated using a hypothetical GCS scenario at the Kimberlina site in California using simulations of elastic-wave sensitivity data at multiple post-injection timesteps. Results show that both strategies adapt to evolving plume geometries and wavefield sensitivities, with Method B offering broader spatial coverage and Method A ensuring simpler deployment. This framework enables site-specific, cost-effective, and risk-informed seismic survey designs, enhancing the ability to monitor CO₂ migration over time in evolving geological environments

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An algorithmic approach to predicting mechanical draft cooling tower fan speeds from infrasound signals

Mechanical draft cooling towers (MDCTs) serve a critical heat management role in a variety of industries. For nuclear reactors in particular, the consistent, predictable operation of MDCTs is required to avoid damage to infrastructure and reduce the potential for catastrophic failure. Accurate, reliable measurement of MDCT fan speed is therefore an important maintenance and safety requirement. To that end, we have developed an algorithm for automatically predicting the rotational speeds of multiple, simultaneously operating fan rotors using contactless, infrasound measurements. The algorithm is based on identifying the blade passing frequencies (BPFs), their harmonics, as well as the motor frequencies (MFs) for each fan in operation. Using the algorithm, these frequencies can be automatically identified in the acoustic waveform’s short-time Fourier transform spectrogram. Attribution is aided by a set of filters that rely on the unique spectral and temporal characteristics of fan operation, as well as the intrinsic frequency ratios of the BPF harmonics and the BPF/MF signals. The algorithm was tested against infrasound data acquired from infrasound sensors deployed at two research reactors: the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) located at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) located at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). After manually identifying the MDCT gearbox ratio, the algorithm was able to quickly yield fan speeds at both reactors in good agreement with ground truth. Ultimately, this work demonstrates the ease by which MDCT fans may be monitored in order to optimize operational conditions and avoid infrastructure damage.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Transactive HVAC Agent - Design and Performance Evaluation

Transactive energy systems are playing an increasingly important role in the efficient and reliable marketbased operation of the power grid. Since a significant portion of the residential building energy consumption is from heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, HVAC is one of the most promising resources to provide load flexibility. However, utilizing HVAC flexibility to provide various grid services while simultaneously maintaining consumer comfort and cost-reductions is challenging. This paper presents a design of a transactive HVAC agent (T-HVAC) to be used as a supervisory control for the HVAC system that can simultaneously ensure comfort and cost-reduction. In particular, the T-HVAC a) estimates HVAC thermal dynamics, b) ensures optimal operations of the HVAC system, and c) participates into markets, and d) implements a market-based control via controlling the thermostat temperature set-point. The T-HVAC performance is demonstrated through multiple scenarios and illustrations.

Demand flexibility, distribution system, HVAC, Tra↗

Highly efficient terahertz photoconductive metasurface detectors operating at microwatt-level gate powers

Despite their wide use in terahertz (THz) research and technology, the application spectra of photoconductive antenna (PCA) THz detectors are severely limited due to the relatively high optical gating power requirement. This originates from poor conversion efficiency of optical gate beam photons to photocurrent in materials with sub-picosecond carrier lifetimes. Here we show that using an ultra-thin (160 nm), perfectly absorbing low-temperature grown GaAs metasurface as the photoconductive channel drastically improves the efficiency of THz PCA detectors. This is achieved through perfect absorption of the gate beam in a significantly reduced photoconductive volume, enabled by the metasurface. This Letter demonstrates that sensitive THz PCA detection is possible using optical gate powers as low as 5 µW—three orders of magnitude lower than gating powers used for conventional PCA detectors. We show that significantly higher optical gate powers are not necessary for optimal operation, as they do not improve the sensitivity to the THz field. This class of efficient PCA THz detectors opens doors for THz applications with low gate power requirements.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Integrated protonic ceramic electrochemical cell for sustainable energy economy using water-energy nexus framework

Reliance on fossil fuels will continue for the next decades even though there are global pushes away from it to mitigate the overarching climate challenge, most especially by its highest consumers and availability. While there is a hastening global shift away from fossil fuel, integrating its assets into this technology helps limit the risk and future losses of stranded assets and reduce the cost of investment in the new technologies. Moreover, the generation of electricity from intermittent renewable sources like solar and wind has witnessed a significant surge in recent years, leading to a pressing demand for practical energy storage systems. Electrical energy storage is anticipated to play a pivotal role in the future global energy system, facilitating load-leveling operations to support the greater integration of renewable and distributed generation. Reversible electrochemical cells (RECs) offer a promising option for addressing the fossil fuel assets integration and energy storage challenges through the interconversion between electrical and chemical energy and concurrent utilizing carbon emission. In their electrolysis mode, the RECs convert electricity into durable, storable, and portable valuable chemical fuels such as syngas and methane. Conversely, the produced chemical fuels can be used as reactants in the fuel cell mode to generate electricity on demand with minimal (hydrocarbons) or zero when H2 or NH3 is used emissions. However, a challenging goal for this type of technology remains to achieve optimal operation and high roundtrip efficiencies, which has hindered the deployment of previous electrochemical cells. This dissertation demonstrates how reversible protonic ceramic electrochemical cells (RePCECs) can be integrated with fossil fuel power plants and renewable energy sources as a potential energy storage system. In this work, integrated RePCEC systems are designed and examined using computational modeling at scales to determine appropriate system configurations and operating conditions that achieve high roundtrip efficiencies. Cell level design of the PCEC is the first approach, several cells are assembled for the stack level model that is integrated into combined cycle powerplant and solar photovoltaic for the system level model. After critical literature review, this answered the operational and integration research questions proposed to address these challenges. The designed systems perform two functions, utilizing captured CO2 and storing renewable energy through co-electrolysis of steam and CO2. The co-electrolysis reaction involves endothermic water electrolysis and exothermic methanation reaction. To enhance high roundtrip efficiency, there is a need for thermal balance and management in the electrolysis mode. This involves operating the RePCEC stack under conditions that favor methane production to balance out heat needed by water electrolysis, it crucial for the RePCEC system operation. Methanation is enhanced by low temperatures. Leveraging on fabricated BCZYYb-electrolyte RePCEC, the cell model designed revealed that the optimum temperature for methane production is 450℃ at atmospheric pressure. Thus, to achieve optimum system performance, operating in the temperature range 450-525℃ is recommended at the given configuration, combining between the optimum temperature for methane production and temperature for the optimum stack roundtrip efficiency. Configuration with carbon capture system and purge stream is the optimum configuration from the seven conceptualized and evaluated. The modeling outcomes include a thermodynamic examination of integrated RePCEC systems, calibration of cell and stack level models, and steady-state simulation and integration into a 600MW combined cycle power plant retrofitted with two two-stage membrane-based carbon capture system and a wastewater treatment and recovery unit. At 100% powerplant loading, the stack and system roundtrip efficiencies are 72% and 51.37% respectively. Adding a purge stream for produced hydrogen at the system downstream improves the efficiencies to 74 and 55.48% respectively. At atmospheric pressure and 525℃, the system model suggests that a stack roundtrip of 82% is achievable, and overall system efficiency increases by reducing the energy consumption by the balance of plant components for steam generation and storage. Economic analysis of the process gives levelized cost of methane as $2.24/MMBtu lower than the conventional production route that range between $3.46/MMBtu and $9.85/MMBtu. The lifecycle analysis shows that the global warming potential for the production of methane and hydrogen from the RePCEC system is 3.83 kg CO2 eq which is lower than 9.35 kg CO2 eq emission during steam methane reforming for hydrogen production. This answered both the environmental and economic concerns in the raised research question. The proposed RePCEC configuration and analysis carried out in this dissertation to address the surge in renewable energy and challenges with PCEC technology hold significant potential in achieving large-scale energy storage while simultaneously reducing carbon emissions. These advancements, coupled with suitable governmental policies and incentive programs, have the potential to economically disrupt the natural gas industries by using RePCEC systems for methane production, thereby making them more favorable for eventual implementation and commercialization.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Numerical Study of Pyrolysis of Biomass in Fluidized Beds

A report presents a numerical-simulation study of pyrolysis of biomass in fluidized-bed reactors, performed by use of the mathematical model described in Model of Fluidized Bed Containing Reacting Solids and Gases (NPO-30163), which appears elsewhere in this issue of NASA Tech Briefs. The purpose of the study was to investigate the effect of various operating conditions on the efficiency of production of condensable tar from biomass. The numerical results indicate that for a fixed particle size, the fluidizing-gas temperature is the foremost parameter that affects the tar yield. For the range of fluidizing-gas temperatures investigated, and under the assumption that the pyrolysis rate exceeds the feed rate, the optimum steady-state tar collection was found to occur at 750 K. In cases in which the assumption was not valid, the optimum temperature for tar collection was found to be only slightly higher. Scaling up of the reactor was found to exert a small negative effect on tar collection at the optimal operating temperature. It is also found that slightly better scaling is obtained by use of shallower fluidized beds with greater fluidization velocities.

Bellan, Josette↗

Well–based monitoring of CO 2 geological sequestration operations in saline aquifers: Critical insights into key questions

Geological carbon sequestration in saline aquifers is one of the most promising strategies to help mitigate emissions of CO 2 to the atmosphere. Significant challenges in ensuring the security of the sequestration process rest in the evolution and expansion of the CO 2 plume in the subsurface. The ability to track the movement of the injected CO 2 poses another challenge. Critical questions related to the integrity of the sequestration operations in saline aquifers relate to plume characteristics that can we monitor using well-based variables. We addressed this and related questions using an integrated modeling framework through a numerical investigation of carbon sequestration in saline aquifers during long-term and post-injection periods. This modeling paradigm incorporates the effect of structural, geological, and petrophysical characteristics. That way, we can account for critical physicochemical processes, rock-fluid interactions, and lithology dependencies. The well fluid variables investigated include fluid composition, pH, fluid density, and ion activity. We learned that fluid property analytics and diagnostics can be powerful tools to estimate the movement of CO 2 and its storage in different trapping mechanisms. These analytics can help optimize operational aspects and simplify reservoir-scale models while still reflecting the complex nature of the CO 2 interactions underground and offering insights into plume evolution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Bosch-Based Systems Using Non-Traditional Catalysts at Reduced Temperatures

Oxygen and water resupply make open loop atmosphere revitalization (AR) systems unfavorable for long-term missions beyond low Earth orbit. Crucial to closing the AR loop are carbon dioxide reduction systems with low mass and volume, minimal power requirements, and minimal consumables. For this purpose, NASA is exploring using Bosch-based systems. The Bosch process is favorable over state-of-the-art Sabatier-based processes due to complete loop closure. However, traditional operation of the Bosch required high reaction temperatures, high recycle rates, and significant consumables in the form of catalyst resupply due to carbon fouling. A number of configurations have been proposed for next-generation Bosch systems. First, alternative catalysts (catalysts other than steel wool) can be used in a traditional single-stage Bosch reactor to improve reaction kinetics and increase carbon packing density. Second, the Bosch reactor may be split into separate stages wherein the first reactor stage is dedicated to carbon monoxide and water formation via the reverse water-gas shift reaction and the second reactor stage is dedicated to carbon formation. A series system will enable maximum efficiency of both steps of the Bosch reaction, resulting in optimized operation and maximum carbon formation rate. This paper details the results of testing of both single-stage and two-stage Bosch systems with alternative catalysts at reduced temperatures. These results are compared to a traditional Bosch system operated with a steel wool catalyst.

Abney, Morgan B.↗

Partially cracked ammonia mixture combustion in gas turbine combustors

Ammonia is gaining popularity for single fuel use in existing gas turbines, as it is carbonless, has higher hydrogen content per unit volume than liquid hydrogen, and facilitates easy storage and handling. However, the low flame speed of ammonia makes it prone to flame blow off and remains the chief concern for its use in power generation. Following previous studies that have shown improved combustion performance by partially cracking the fuel, in this computational study, efficacy of partially cracked ammonia as a replacement fuel for natural gas is evaluated. A high-pressure optically accessible combustor operated at ~10 bar pressure with non-vitiated heated air was used as the test platform. This combustor was equipped with a novel multifuel multi-tube micromixing injector (M3 injector). High resolution simulations of the flow fields both in the injector as well as the combustor were performed to understand the fuel mixing in the injector and in the inlet region of the combustor. These modeling results showed that the injector was highly effective for achieving mixture homogeneity at the entrance of the combustor for ammonia and natural gas injection, whereas, for hydrogen an earlier injection facilitating longer residence time would be beneficial. Also, these simulations show that while harnessing waste heat the ideal fuel dissociation fraction is between 0.4 and 0.55 for optimal operation.

Ammonia↗

American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN)

The American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN) is an international multi-institutional wind energy field campaign to better understand wake losses within operational wind farms. Wake interactions are among the least understood physical interactions in wind plants today, leading to unexpected power and profit losses. For example, Ørsted, the world’s largest offshore wind farm developer, recently announced a downward revision in energy estimates across their energy generation portfolio, primarily caused by underprediction of energy losses from wind farm blockage and wakes. In their announcement, they noted that the standard industry models used for their original energy estimates were inaccurate, and this was likely an industry-wide issue. To help further improve and validate wind plant models across scales from individual turbines as well as interfarm interactions between plants, new observations, such as those planned for AWAKEN, are critical. These model improvements will enable both improved layout and more optimal operation of wind farms with greater power production and improved reliability, ultimately leading to lower wind energy costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Strategies for Enhancing Battery Life Under Fast Charging: Insights from NMC-Based Cell Cycling

Fast charging improves the usability of consumer electronics and electric vehicles (EVs) by reducing range anxiety and downtime but accelerates battery degradation and raises safety concerns. Optimizing operational conditions during fast-charging is critical to mitigating aging and ensuring safety. This study evaluated multilayer Gr/NMC811 cells under various conditions, including depths of discharge (DODs of 68%, 84%, and 100%), upper charge cutoff voltages (4.1–4.2 V), and post-charge rest periods (2–30 min), using a 20 min fast charging protocol for up to 500 cycles (up to 150,000 miles of EV use assuming 3.3 mi/kWh vehicle level energy efficiency). Surprisingly, higher DODs under fast charging improved battery life and performance compared to lower DODs. Reducing the upper charge cut-off voltage helped mitigate degradation. A brief 2 min rest period after charging further reduced aging effects. The primary aging modes were loss of lithium inventory and cathode active material. Although minor lithium plating was observed within 500 cycles, it did not affect performance significantly. These findings suggest that, with optimized conditions, cells can sustain hundreds of fast charge cycles—equivalent to over 100,000 miles of EV use—without significant adverse effects on performance or longevity.

25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗

Grid-connected heat pump water heater benefits for low-income households in the Southeastern United States

Energy efficient heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) reduce customer energy costs; grid-connected controls further increase HPWH value by enabling energy storage and shifting demand to cheaper, off-peak periods. However, a HPWH’s first cost premium can put it out of reach for low-income customers. This paper will present results of an ongoing study exploring the benefits of load shifting HPWHs for 24 low-income households, aiming to support increased product deployment in this demographic. The study uses EcoPort modules to shift HPWH load for a study sample consisting primarily of low-income adults and seniors in North Carolina. Building upon prior studies, the study’s HPWH operating schedules are designed to maximize shifted energy and minimize participant electricity costs based on local time-of-use rates. The study documents load profiles of grid-connected HPWHs in a less-studied demographic group and explores how certain groups may have particularly flexible loads due to their unique usage profiles. The results are relevant for HPWH product performance in the Southeast. The study will quantify HPWH load shifting performance during North Carolina’s hot summer, temperate shoulder, and occasionally sub-freezing winter seasons, and the study includes installations in conditioned, semi-conditioned, and unconditioned spaces. Finally, study results will also explore how controlled HPWHs can provide value to the regional grid by reducing seasonal peaks via demand response. Lessons learned include HPWH acceptance for low-income and senior users, best practices for maintaining HPWH connectivity among users without prior product experience, and strategies to leverage remote monitoring to ensure optimal operation and enhance HPWH reliability.

Urigwe, Daniela↗

Enhancements to the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Space Environment Simulator (SES) Facility to Support Cryogenic Testing of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Integrated Science Instrument Module (ISIM)

NASA is the mission lead for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the next of the "Great Observatories", scheduled for launch in 2014. It is directly responsible for the integration and test of the Integrated Science Instrument Module (ISIM), which includes a composite truss structure provided by NASA, and four science instruments sponsored and provided by NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), the Canadian Space Agency (CSA), and the European Consortium (EC). Three of the four instruments are passively cooled and designed to operate at temperatures in the 36K to 40K range, and the fourth instrument is actively cooled to approximately 6K. The ISIM will undergo several performance tests at various levels of integration in the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's (GSFC) Space Environment Simulator (SES), GSFC's largest thermal vacuum chamber. These activities range from Cryo-cycling the bare flight composite structure to thermal balance and performance testing of the full ISIM module. This paper describes the enhancements made to the SES chamber in order to support all cryogenic thermal vacuum testing of the ISIM. Upgrades discussed include: design and fabrication of a very large, removable and reconfigurable helium shroud; a new valve box permitting independent flow control of gaseous helium (GHe) to up to ten zones; and development of in-situ 3-dimensional photogrammetry capability in a cryogenic environment. Also presented will be select results from several facility tests already conducted to verify the chamber capabilities and optimize operational procedures, including the Helium Shroud -03 Configuration Acceptance Test, and the Helium Shroud -01 Configuration Chamber Certification Test.

Cleveland, Paul↗

Bandwidth extension and conversion efficiency improvements beyond phase matching limitations using cavity-enhanced OPCPA

The conversion efficiency and phase matching bandwidth of ultrafast optical parametric amplification (OPA) are constrained by the dispersion and nonlinear coefficient of the employed crystal as well as pulse shaping effects. In our work we show that an enhancement cavity resonant with the pump seeded at the full repetition rate of the pump laser can automatically reshape the small-signal gain in optical parametric chirped-pulse amplification (OPCPA) to achieve close-to-optimal operation. This new method termed cavity-enhanced OPCPA or C-OPCPA significantly increases both the gain bandwidth and the conversion efficiency, in addition to boosting gain for high-repetition-rate amplification. The goal in C-OPCPA is to arrive at a condition of impedance matching at all temporal coordinates, such that, in the absence of linear losses, all the incident pump power is dissipated in the nonlinear loss element, i.e., converted to signal and idler. The use of a low finesse enhancement cavity resonant with a low average power (<1W) and a high repetition rate (78MHz) pump source is shown to achieve more than 50% conversion efficiency into signal and idler from the coupled pump in an optical parametric process, whereas an equivalent amount of pump power in a single-pass configuration leads to negligible conversion. Additionally, the gain bandwidth is extended by a factor of 3-4 beyond the phase-matching limit. Our empirical observations are corroborated by a numerical analysis of depletion optimizing the single-pass case, which assesses the underlying impedance matching that is responsible for the observed performance improvements.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Final Report on Aerosol Pretreatment Technology Performance and Benchmarking

Solvent-based post-combustion CO 2 capture (PCC) technology remains one of the leading methods to combat global CO 2 emissions produced from large-scale coal-fired power production. Advanced solventbased PCC technology has made significant improvements in design and performance that reduce capital and operating costs to enable its commercial use. Key to low cost, manageable logistics, and environmentally safe operation of solvent-based PCC technology are minimal solvent losses from the process through the treated gas stream exiting PCC plant absorbers. High flue gas aerosol particle concentrations (>10 5 particles/cm 3 ) for particles in the range of 70-200 nm have been shown to cause significant amine solvent losses for solvent-based PCC processes through several mechanisms including absorption of solvent and water into growing aerosol particles. Flue gas aerosol pretreatment technology is the only realistic and economically attractive method to reduce very high aerosol particle concentrations (>10 7 particles/cm 3 ) to enable solvent-based PCC for existing power plants lacking sufficient particle removal systems, such as baghouses. The overall goal of this project was to design, construct, independently test, and evaluate three flue gas aerosol pretreatment technologies identified to significantly reduce high aerosol particle concentrations (>10 7 particles/cm 3 ) in the 70-200 nm particle size range: (1) a novel, high-velocity water injection spray concept developed by RWE and tested by Linde, (2) an innovative electrostatic precipitator (ESP) device with optimized operating conditions developed by Washington University in St. Louis (WUSTL), and (3) a non-regenerative sorbent-based filter technology developed by InnoSepra for SO x and NO x removal from coal-fired power plant flue gas. Each technology has been validated with tests on 500-1000 scfm of actual coal-fired flue gas and evaluated in terms of particle removal efficiency (%), cost competitiveness, and environmental impact. Aerosol measurements were performed upstream and downstream of each aerosol reduction unit during independent testing of each technology using advanced instrumentation and analytical methods provided by WUSTL. To perform aerosol measurements, isokinetic probes were inserted into flanged pipes attached to the flue gas piping, and a small suction pump was used to sample gas containing aerosol particles. Aerosol particle number concentrations (# particles/cm 3 ) and size distributions were then measured using a scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS, TSI Inc.) for very fine particles (<1,000 nm) and a particle counter manufactured by GRIMM for particles larger than 1,000 nm. This report summarizes the aerosol removal performance results from pilot scale testing of each technology. Performance results have been benchmarked against pre-defined targets and other flue gas aerosol pretreatment technologies with documented performance. Linde Gas North America LLC has been the prime contractor to DOE responsible for overall project management and provided the design for the high-velocity water spray-based aerosol removal technology based on a design concept developed by the German utility company RWE.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Modeling and Simulation of an UAS Collision Avoidance Systems

This paper describes a Modeling and Simulation of an Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Collision Avoidance System, capable of representing different types of scenarios for UAS collision avoidance. Commercial and military piloted aircraft currently utilize various systems for collision avoidance such as Traffic Alert and Collision A voidance System (TCAS), Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B), Radar and ElectroOptical and Infrared Sensors (EO-IR). The integration of information from these systems is done by the pilot in the aircraft to determine the best course of action. In order to operate optimally in the National Airspace System (NAS) UAS have to work in a similar or equivalent manner to a piloted aircraft by applying the principle of "detect-see and avoid" (DSA) to other air traffic. Hence, we have taken these existing sensor technologies into consideration in order to meet the challenge of researching the modeling and simulation of an approximated DSA system. A Schematic Model for a UAS Collision Avoidance System (CAS) has been developed ina closed loop block diagram for that purpose. We have found that the most suitable software to carry out this task is the Satellite Tool Kit (STK) from Analytical Graphics Inc. (AGI). We have used the Aircraft Mission Modeler (AMM) for modeling and simulation of a scenario where a UAS is placed on a possible collision path with an initial intruder and then with a second intruder, but is able to avoid them by executing a right tum maneuver and then climbing. Radars have also been modeled with specific characteristics for the UAS and both intruders. The software provides analytical, graphical user interfaces and data controlling tools which allow the operator to simulate different conditions. Extensive simulations have been carried out which returned excellent results.

Oliveros, Edgardo V.↗

The Role of Regional Connections in Planning for Future Power System Operations Under Climate Extremes

Identifying the sensitivity of future power systems to climate extremes must consider the concurrent effects of changing climate and evolving power systems. We investigated the sensitivity of a Western U.S. power system to isolated and combined heat and drought when it has low (5%) and moderate (31%) variable renewable energy shares, representing historic and future systems. We used an electricity operational model combined with a model of historically extreme drought (for hydropower and freshwater-reliant thermoelectric generators) over the Western U.S. and a synthetic, regionally extreme heat event in Southern California (for thermoelectric generators and electricity load). We found that the drought has the highest impact on summertime production cost (+10% to +12%), while temperature-based deratings have minimal effect (at most +1%). The Southern California heat wave scenario impacting load increases summertime regional net imports to Southern California by 10-14%, while the drought decreases them by 6-12%. Combined heat and drought conditions have a moderate effect on imports to Southern California (-2%) in the historic system and a stronger effect (+8%) in the future system. Southern California dependence on other regions decreases in the summertime with the moderate increase in variable renewable energy (-34% imports), but hourly peak regional imports are maintained under those infrastructure changes. By combining synthetic and historically driven conditions to test two infrastructures, we consolidate the importance of considering compounded heat wave and drought in planning studies and suggest that region-to-region energy transfers during peak periods are key to optimal operations under climate extremes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗