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At least 271 records · Page 15

Hypersonic transports: Economics and environmental effects

An economic analysis of hypersonic transports is presented to show projected operating costs (direct and indirect) and return on investment. Important assumptions are varied to determine the probable range of values for operating costs and return on investment. The environmental effects of hypersonic transports are discussed and compared to current supersonic transports. Estimates of sideline and fly-over noise are made for a typical hypersonic transport, and the sonic boom problem is analyzed and discussed. Since the exhaust products from liquid hydrogen-fueled engines differ from those of kerosene-fueled aircraft, a qualitative assessment of air pollution effects is made.

Petersen, R. H.↗

Hypersonic transports - Economics and environmental effects.

An economic analysis of hypersonic transports is presented to show projected operating costs (direct and indirect) and return on investment. Important assumptions are varied to determine the probable range of values for operating costs and return on investment. The environmental effects of hypersonic transports are discussed and compared to current supersonic transports. Estimates of sideline and flyover noise are made for a typical hypersonic transport, and the sonic boom problem is analyzed and discussed. Since the exhaust products from liquid hydrogen-fueled engines differ from those of kerosene-fueled aircraft, a qualitative assessment of air pollution effects is made.

Petersen, R. H.↗

Hypersonic transports - Economics and environmental effects.

An economic analysis of hypersonic transports is presented to show projected operating costs (direct and indirect) and return on investment. Important assumptions are varied to determine the probable range of values for operating costs and return on investment. The environmental effects of hypersonic transports are discussed and compared to current supersonic transports. Estimates of sideline and flyover noise are made for a typical hypersonic transport, and the sonic boom problem is analyzed and discussed. Since the exhaust products from liquid hydrogen-fueled engines differ from those of kerosene-fueled aircraft, a qualitative assessment of air pollution effects is made.

Petersen, R. H.↗

Characteristics of future air cargo demand and impact on aircraft development: A report on the Cargo/Logistic Airlift Systems Study (CLASS) project

Current domestic and international air cargo operations are studied and the characteristics of 1990 air cargo demand are postulated from surveys conducted at airports and with shippers, consignees, and freight forwarders as well as air, land, and ocean carriers. Simulation and route optimization programs are exercised to evaluate advanced aircraft concepts. The results show that proposed changes in the infrastructure and improved cargo loading efficiencies are as important enhancing the prospects of air cargo growth as is the advent of advanced freighter aircraft. Potential reductions in aircraft direct operating costs are estimated and related to future total revenue. Service and cost elasticities are established and utilized to estimate future potential tariff reductions that may be realized through direct and indirect operating cost reductions and economies of scale.

Whitehead, A. H., Jr.↗

Development of the Architectural Simulation Model for Future Launch Systems and its Application to an Existing Launch Fleet

A significant portion of lifecycle costs for launch vehicles are generated during the operations phase. Research indicates that operations costs can account for a large percentage of the total life-cycle costs of reusable space transportation systems. These costs are largely determined by decisions made early during conceptual design. Therefore, operational considerations are an important part of vehicle design and concept analysis process that needs to be modeled and studied early in the design phase. However, this is a difficult and challenging task due to uncertainties of operations definitions, the dynamic and combinatorial nature of the processes, and lack of analytical models and the scarcity of historical data during the conceptual design phase. Ultimately, NASA would like to know the best mix of launch vehicle concepts that would meet the missions launch dates at the minimum cost. To answer this question, we first need to develop a model to estimate the total cost, including the operational cost, to accomplish this set of missions. In this project, we have developed and implemented a discrete-event simulation model using ARENA (a simulation modeling environment) to determine this cost assessment. Discrete-event simulation is widely used in modeling complex systems, including transportation systems, due to its flexibility, and ability to capture the dynamics of the system. The simulation model accepts manifest inputs including the set of missions that need to be accomplished over a period of time, the clients (e.g., NASA or DoD) who wish to transport the payload to space, the payload weights, and their destinations (e.g., International Space Station, LEO, or GEO). A user of the simulation model can define an architecture of reusable or expendable launch vehicles to achieve these missions. Launch vehicles may belong to different families where each family may have it own set of resources, processing times, and cost factors. The goal is to capture the required resource levels of the major launch elements and their required facilities. The model s output can show whether or not a certain architecture of vehicles can meet the launch dates, and if not, how much the delay cost would be. It will also produce aggregate figures of missions cost based on element procurement cost, processing cost, cargo integration cost, delay cost, and mission support cost. One of the most useful features of this model is that it is stochastic where it accepts statistical distributions to represent the processing times mimicking the stochastic nature of real systems.

Rabadi, Ghaith↗

Flexibility Requirements for Energy Systems with Renewable Generation under Forecast Uncertainties

Energy systems with high fractions of renewable energy-based resources require adequate assets providing flexibility in electricity usage to maximize the benefits of renewable energy. In this paper, we provide an analytical approach to estimate the flexibility requirements of such energy systems, with forecast uncertainties in both demand and generation. Our analytical results show that even with forecast errors, the expected system operating cost decreases with an increase in the amount of flexibility capacity -- however, there is an inflection point, beyond which addition of further flexibility capacity does not reduce expected system cost any further. Additionally, an enumeration-based approach is presented to estimate the maximum flexibility capacity needed to optimize the operating cost. Numerical experiments conducted on a network-abstracted modified IEEE 30-bus system are used for empirical validation and gaining additional insights on the effect of prosumers' willingness to offer flexibility on the dispatch performance.

Bhattacharya, Saptarshi↗

Technology for space transportation systems

The overall objective of the NASA technology program for advanced space transportation systems is to provide the technology base for improved vehicle capability, greater mission flexibility, and much lower operational costs through full reusability. Earth-to-orbit-and-return vehicles are considered, taking into account structures and materials, reentry technology, and chemical propulsion. Attention is also given to orbital transfer vehicles, interplanetary transfer vehicles, and shuttle technology experiments. It is pointed out that the Space Shuttle will provide the first significant step towards low cost, workhorse type space transportation. The technology advances currently in work will provide a basis for a continuing reduction of transportation operational costs.

Stephenson, F. W., Jr.↗

Contingency Power Study for Short Haul Civil Tiltrotor

NASA has concluded from previous studies that the twin engine tiltrotor is the most economical and technologically viable rotorcraft for near-term civil applications. Twin engine civil rotorcraft must be able to hover safely on one engine in an emergency. This emergency power requirement generally results in engines 20 to 50 percent larger than needed for normal engine operation, negatively impacting aircraft economics. This study identifies several contingency power enhancement concepts, and quantifies their potential to reduce aircraft operating costs. Many unique concepts were examined, and the selected concepts are simple, reliable, and have a high potential for near term realization. These engine concepts allow extremely high turbine temperatures during emergency operation by providing cooling to the power turbine and augmenting cooling of both turbines and structural hardware. Direct operating cost are reduced 3 to percent, which could yield a 30 to 80 percent increase in operating profits. The study consists of the definition of an aircraft economics model and a baseline engine, and an engine concept screening study, and a preliminary definition of the selected concepts. The selected concepts are evaluated against the baseline engine, and the critical technologies and development needs are identified, along with applications for this technology.

D'Angelo, Marin M.↗

A Simplified Method to Evaluate Energy Life Cycle Cost Effectiveness for Electron Ion Collider Infrastructure Design

The new DOE Order 436.1A approved on April 25 th provides instructions to incorporate principles of sustainability early in the project planning and design process. Integral to the principles of sustainability is life cycle cost effectiveness Life Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis is vital to the sustainable energy efficient design and construction of the Electron Ion Collider (EIC). Reducing energy consumption has a direct impact on reducing life cycle operating costs with benefits to the environment. The early stages of the project are the most influential where design decisions and so life-cycle considerations during this stage can result in significant impacts to the energy footprint of the design. For example, when comparing between various options, it is necessary to compare the energy savings in $\frac{US$}{kWh}$ to the capital cost in US$. And although uncertain by nature, it is important to factor in the expected inflation and discount of future spendings to compare with the cost of immediate capital investment. This tech note presents a tool that engineers can readily use to analyze energy operating costs using an incremental life cycle cost method when comparing different design alternative.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Economic Benefits of Alternative Fuels in Rural Alabama

This fact sheet provides an overview of potential alternative fuel vehicle operational cost savings, opportunities to generate revenue for the state and income for individuals, and several examples of alternative fuels supporting jobs in Alabama. Alternative transportation fuels could potentially provide economic benefits to rural Alabama by lowering operating costs for vehicle owners and creating new revenue streams and job opportunities for fuel providers, technicians, and dealerships. The use of electricity, compressed natural gas (CNG), liquefied natural gas (LNG), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG or propane) could result in reduced fuel costs and maintenance expenses for both public and private fleets, as well as individual consumers. Fleet operators often invest in private fueling infrastructure, while publicly accessible stations could attract traffic and commerce to local businesses and communities. Technicians capable of retrofitting alternative fuels and maintaining the vehicles and fueling infrastructure could develop business opportunities as well, but they require special training and often certifications. These cost savings and increased revenues may be recirculated through the economy and impact more than just the beneficiaries listed above.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Development of a Technical, Economic, and Risk Assessment Tool for the Evaluation of Work Reduction Opportunities

Efficient and cost-effective operation of a nuclear power plant (NPP) is essential to ensuring long-term economical and safe operation. Multiple cost saving opportunities exist, referred to here as work reduction opportunities (WRO). These WROs reduce plant operating costs by employing various cost-effective strategies (e.g., implementation of modern technologies). Identifying and objectively screening WROs is an essential task to help reduce overall costs. However, there is no comprehensive framework for assessing WROs in the nuclear industry and evaluating their impact on plant operations. This report presents a novel framework for systematically evaluating WROs from a technical, economic, and risk perspective. As NPPs continue to add new technology and implement modernization strategies into their current processes, potential WROs are commonly identified. Although most WROs have the potential to reduce costs, not all opportunities will result in significant cost savings due to unforeseen risks, large implementation costs, or benefits that fall short of expectations. Examples of this can be the result of a technology that is not fully developed, uncertainty in the amount of cost reduction, or difficulties introducing a new process into an organization. These uncertainties can manifest several ways and can result in a WRO with limited cost savings or even a loss of investment. The framework developed emphasizes the importance of effectively screening the WROs from a holistic perspective to objectively identify inefficiencies and ensure a positive impact to the organization. This report presents the Technical, Economic, and Risk Assessment (TERA) as a key methodology for the screening and evaluation of potential WROs. The TERA framework begins with a screening phase where the process is examined through a hybrid combination of Lean Six Sigma and Integrated Operations for Nuclear (ION) guiding principles. This framework examines the current processes using the Lean Six Sigma SIPOC (Suppliers, Inputs, Process, Outputs, Consumers) methodology but retains the ION key elements of People, Technology, Process, and Governance as important factors to the nuclear decision-making process. By combining the principles of Lean Six Sigma and ION, the developed screening process is specific to the nuclear industry in that it systematically evaluates WROs in order to implement new technology that is comprehensively evaluated. The TERA begins by mapping current processes as they relate to WROs and examining the inefficiencies. Furthermore, the created process map can be used to identify and evaluate potential solutions. Using key performance indicators (KPIs), the TERA evaluates each area—technology, economics, and risk—for uncertainties and to perform cost-benefit analysis. The results of the TERA are important KPIs that allow for an evaluation of different processes and technology implementations. This assessment enables decision-makers to compare various WROs based on metrics and then make informed decisions for which opportunity to implement first. This research includes not only the creation of the TERA framework, but also the evaluation of its performance. A case study for screening potential WROs at Southern Nuclear Company is presented that utilizes the TERA methodology. Through the use of TERA, various WROs were screened, and the solutions evaluated for cost-benefit expectations. The report concludes by summarizing the overall effort and implications for utility modernization. The performance of the screening and TERA are discussed as well as the impact on the nuclear industry. The TERA process enables utilities to evaluate and inform investment decisions for WROs and mitigate any potential risks. Through this research, we provide utilities with a valuable framework to optimize operations, reduce costs, and drive continuous process improvement.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DEM and MELT: A Modular and Compact In-Can Melting Technology Dedicated to D and D and Remediation Waste - 20033

The DEM and MELT In-Can vitrification process is designed to process intermediate and high level waste coming for D and D and remediation operations. It is developed to treat liquid and solid waste, to produce a small amount of secondary waste and to minimize investment and operating costs. This In-Can vitrification process is also developed with a compact and modular design and can be adapted regarding nuclear operators' needs and requirements. Furthermore, this robust and simple process is flexible enough to accommodate most uncertainties on waste composition. The DEM and MELT process is developed through the French consortium coordinated by CEA which gathers Orano, ECM technologies and Andra. In the frame of this project, Orano has designed a compact and modular layout of the process allowing an efficient in situ implementation, close to the waste to be treated. This paper presents the compact and modular design of the DEM and MELT process and the way it can be used for a short duration, as a decommissioning tool aimed to be dismantled just after the treatment operation. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A hybrid surrogate modeling framework for the Digital Twin of a Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR)

While nuclear energy is a non-greenhouse-gas emitting energy source, expensive operational costs due to the high-level of safety requirements decreases their competitiveness in the sustainable energy market. Advanced reactor concepts paired with Digital Twins aim to increase the commercialization gains of nuclear energy by reducing operational costs, increasing reactor reliability and enhancing power generation. To support Digital Twin tasks such as real-time autonomous control, proactive maintenance monitoring or optimizing power demand operations, a fast and accurate virtual representation of the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is required. The computational cost of high-fidelity, physics-based models are unsuitable for real-time analysis or scalability. Here, in this work, a hybrid surrogate modeling framework is developed fora Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR) that leverages physics-inspired models for key reactor components and uses data-driven methods for rapid system state space prediction. The Xenon reactivity feedback model is integrated to inform the surrogate model about the reactor core and the homologous pump theory model is the basis for representing pump degradation. Using a detailed, two dimensional thermal hydraulics model to generate data on the FHR, we train a network of Vectorized Autoregressive Moving-Average with eXogenous input (VARMAX) models to predict the remaining state values. The result is a surrogate model that provides a detailed reactor state representation of 41 system states and a pump degradation analysis. The framework is applied to Load Follows profiles, yielding high accuracy and a speedup that is more than 4000x faster compared to the higher- fidelity thermal hydraulics model, enabling real-time operational intelligence and applications in long horizon predictions. While the surrogate model framework is demonstrated for the particular case of FHR, the hybrid physical/data-driven modeling approach including the network of surrogates and the underlying modularity has the potential to be applied to other physical asset systems.

Digital Twins↗

Flexible Ramping Product Procurement in Day-Ahead Markets

Flexible ramping products (FRPs) emerge as a promising instrument for addressing steep and uncertain ramping needs through market mechanisms. Initial implementations of FRPs in North American electricity markets, however, revealed several shortcomings in existing FRP designs. Here, in many instances, FRP prices failed to signal the true value of ramping capacity, most notably evident in zero FRP prices observed in a myriad of periods during which the system was in acute need for rampable capacity. These periods were marked by scheduled but undeliverable FRPs, often calling for operator out-of-market actions. On top of that, the methods used for procuring FRPs have been primarily rule-based, lacking explicit economic underpinnings. In this paper, we put forth an alternative framework for FRP procurement, which seeks to set FRP requirements and schedule FRP awards such that the expected system operation cost is minimized. Using real-world data from U.S. ISOs, we showcase the relative merits of the framework in (i) reducing the total system operation cost, (ii) improving price formation, (iii) enhancing the the deliverability of FRP awards, and (iv) reducing the need for out-of-market actions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Supply support of NASA tracking networks

The extent which supply support for Jet Propulsion Laboratory's Deep Space Network and Goddard Space Flight Center's Space Flight Tracking and Data Network should be consolidated is considered along with the Identification of opportunities for improvements in each of the supply systems without regard to consolidation. There is a considerable amount of commonality between the items in the stock catalogs at the two network depots, 58% for federal stock number items and 30% overall. The workload at the DSIF Supply Depot (DSD) is small (less than 20%) compared to the Network Logistics Depot (NLD). A number of important benefits in supply support would result from a consolidation of DSD into NLD. LMI found that a consolidation as is, without any changes in inventory management techniques, would reduce annual operating costs by from $208,000 to $358,000. However, if the consolidation were coupled with a change to use of economic order quantities, the annual operating cost reduction would range from $930,000 to $1,078,000.

Source record↗

Uncertainty Quantification for Capacity Expansion Planning

This report quantifies the uncertainty in output decisions from a Capacity Expansion Planning (CEP) model. The need to understand how uncertainties within CEP models and modeling assumptions affect Quantities of Interest (QoIs) such as expansion and operating costs, as well as expansion decisions remains an ongoing challenge in scientific research and industrial operations. This area of research is particularly important for models which seek to capture how large networks will evolve and operate under increased sources of variable generation, i.e., higher penetration of renewable technologies such as solar and wind generators. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of CEP models which estimate expansion costs and decisions, and production cost models which estimate operating costs and dispatch decisions, is a key focus of research at NREL. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) represents a state-of-the-art CEP model and considers a range of possible grid evolutions in an attempt to identify key drivers, ramifications, and decisions which contribute to better informed investment and policy decisions. However, research to quantify how uncertainties and model assumptions, such as unit commitment (UC), within ReEDS may be affecting its outputs remains challenging due to to size and complexity of the model

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Low-Temperature Plasma Treatment for Enhanced Recovery of Highly Valued Critical REEs from Coal (Final Report)

The principle objective of this project was to develop a novel process flowsheet using low-temperature plasma treatment (LTP) integrated with conventional hydrometallurgical processes to recover rare earth elements (REEs), especially highly valued REEs (i.e. scandium and critical REEs), from coal and coal byproducts. LTP treatment was used to pretreat the solid feed material prior to leaching in an effort to improve the leaching characteristics of the REEs and potentially reduce acid consumption. Initially, a detailed experimental program was performed on a laboratory LTP furnace to identify a set of process parameter values to be used for assessing the enhanced leaching performance achieved on four specific gravity fractions of West Kentucky No. 13 and Fire Clay coarse coal refuse materials. High-temperature oxidation (HTO)) was also evaluated as a means for improving REE leachability on the same fractions of both coal sources. The lixiviants used to assess leachability improvements included: i) untreated water, ii) 0.1 M ammonium sulfate solution and iii) 1.2 M sulfuric acid solution at a temperature of 75°C. The laboratory data was used to develop multiple process flow sheets using HTO only to produce a rare earth oxide mix concentrate or utilizing both LTP and HTO treatment processes to generate a high purity heavy REO mix concentrate and a light REO mix concentrate. A techno-economic analysis was performed on each circuit. Low-temperature plasma oxidation was found to enhance REE leaching characteristics for all specific gravity (SG) fractions of the West Kentucky No. 13 coarse refuse material. The leaching recovery improvement was preferentially achieved for the heavy REEs with higher values obtained when treating the lower density fraction material. For example, the leaching recovery for the heavy REEs in the untreated 1.6 SG Float fraction material was 8% in a 0.1 M ammonium sulfate solution. After LTP treatment for 32 hours, heavy REE recovery increased to 33%. The corresponding recovery value for the light REEs was 10%. These findings indicate a strong affinity of the heavy REEs with the organic material, which is the component being reduced in content during the LTP treatment. Scanning electron micrographs showed the development of a honeycomb structure with increased LTP treatment with higher surface area as confirmed from BET measurements. Higher surface area promotes improved leaching efficiency due to enhance chemical interactions. When using 1.2 M sulfuric acid, the LTP treatment was found to provide a heavy REE recovery increase from 23% to 53% for the 1.6 SG Float fraction which corresponded to an ash content increase from around 20% to 35%. However, LTP treatment provided no improvement in leaching characteristic for the 2.2 SG sink material in the acid solution, which was likely due to the low organic content. The LTP treatment of the Fire Clay SG fractions provided no improvement in REE leaching characteristic, which may be due to the association with REE minerals such as monazite and REE-associated mineral matter such as clays. High temperature oxidation using temperatures in the range of 600-750OC was found to significantly enhance the leaching characteristics of both the light and heavy REEs for all density fractions in both coarse coal refuse materials. Generally, the increase in light REE recovery for the West Kentucky material was from 15% for the untreated material to 90% for the HTO treated material at 600°C. Recovery values dropped significantly when using temperatures below 600°C and above 750°C. The impact of the excessive temperatures was most likely a result of sintering. For the heavy REEs, HTO significantly improved recovery in the lighter SG fractions, which may be due to an affinity with the organic content. Only limited heavy REE recovery improvement was obtained for the denser SG fractions. Another benefit of HTO is the conversion of calcium-based minerals to a very soluble calcium oxide, which is removable using a mild acid solution, and the conversion of Fe minerals to relatively insoluble minerals such as hematite and magnetite. The pregnant leaching solution produced from the leaching of all SG fractions obtained from both coal sources was treated using two stages of solvent extraction procedurally modeling a rougher-cleaner circuit followed by oxalic acid precipitation. Rare earth oxide products having a purity greater than 97% was produced from nearly all of the SG fractions. A novel process flowsheet was developed based on the selective leaching of heavy REEs that was made possible through LTP treatment of West Kentucky No. 13 coarse refuse followed by salt leaching. In the flowsheet, coal refuse material is ground to a top size of 1mm and then treated by LTP. The treated material is mixed into a 0.1 M ammonium sulfate solution and then filtered to produce a heavy REE enriched pregnant leach solution. The heavy REEs are concentrated by two stages of selective precipitation to produce a heavy REE mix oxalate and then roasted to obtain a heavy REO mix concentrate. The solid residues remaining after salt leaching is dried and then subjected to HTO treatment followed by concentration using selective precipitation and roasting to produce a light REO mix concentrate. An alternative circuit was developed using HTO treatment only to treat 100% of the coarse refuse material followed by selective precipitation and roasting to generate a high purity REO mix product. A techno-economic analysis performed for the treatment of West Kentucky No. 13 and Fire Clay coarse refuse based on a hypothetical 500-tph plant revealed that the net present value for all scenarios was significantly negative. Primary reasons include: i) a substantial decrease in the basket value of the final product relative to the feed and ii) high chemical costs relative to the amount of product generated. The basket value reduction was primarily due to little to no scandium recovery due to poor leaching characteristics when using low acid concentrations as necessitated by the low feed grades. Operating costs were primarily influenced by the chemical costs relative to the kilograms of concentrate produced and feed grade. For the Fire Clay coarse refuse material, the total operating cost was estimated to be $354 per kg of REO produced which was higher than the basket value of the REO product ($276/kg). Approximately 37% of the total cost was the sulfuric acid used during the leaching process. A comparative analysis performed to assess the economic viability of using low-temperature plasma furnaces found that market value enhancement for the generation of both heavy REO and light REO concentrates will be needed in addition to significant technology advancements to reduce the cost of plasma furnaces.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Multibody transport concept

Two baseline aircraft are configured in this study. The multibody aircraft has two fuselage bodies located at approximately 28% wing semispan. The single-body aircraft is configured in such a way as to provide a reference base with which the multibody aircraft can be compared. The aircraft are sized to provide the lowest direct operating cost configuration when transporting 771,620 lbs. over a distance of 3,500 nautical miles at a cruise speed of Mach 0.80. The aircraft are assumed to operate in the years 1990-1995, thus allowing for the incorporation of those technologies expected to be mature and available for production usage in 1985. In comparison with the single-body aircraft, the two-body aircraft shows reductions of 8.9% in wing weight, 7.7% in structural weight, 13.5% in block fuel weight, and 11.3% in direct operating cost.

Moore, J. W.↗