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At least 271 records · Page 15

The Future of Arms Control in a Multilateral and Multi-Domain Environment

The crisis of arms control is obvious and broadly discussed among states, within the world’s expert community and to a lesser extent the media. This crisis has at least three building blocks: Russia continues to violate or undermine key arms control treaties and commitments; China rejects to join the existing arms control architecture; and both countries heavily invest in the modernization of their armed forces, including development of the nuclear arsenals. In the current highly competitive environment, arms control is more difficult to achieve and is likely to accomplish less than what was optimistically anticipated a generation ago. The growing pressure to “save arms control at all cost”, often expressed by the Western expert community, further complicates the situation. The excessively aspirational and ideological approach to arms control – in which arms control, disarmament, and non-proliferation (ADN) become a silver bullet solution – is as dangerous as security and defence policies which entirely exclude ADN. As James Cameron rightly points out, “history should teach policy-makers to look beyond formulae for strategic stability to other ways in which arms control can help to contain disruptive challenges to the balance of power and minimize the chances of war”.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

A Dynamic Risk Framework for the Physical Security of Nuclear Power Plants

This paper describes ongoing work within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability pathway at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to optimize the security and cost of nuclear power plants. It introduces the dynamic risk assessment tool developed at INL, Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). EMRALD is leveraged to optimize the security posture of a nuclear power plant by integrating force-on-force (FOF) simulations and operator mitigation actions, including dynamic and flexible coping strategies (FLEX). To illustrate the methodology, four attack scenarios are modeled in a commercially available FOF simulation tool using a hypothetical nuclear power plant facility. The simulation results provide valuable insights into possible attack outcomes, as well as the probabilistic risk of a core damage event given these outcomes. Safety mitigation procedures are modeled in EMRALD dependent on the attack outcomes by considering human operator uncertainties. The results demonstrate that the number of armed responders can be optimized, while still maintaining the same protection level as the initial security posture. The proposed modeling and simulation framework of integrating FLEX equipment with FOF models enables the nuclear power plants to credit FLEX portable equipment in the plant security posture, resulting in an efficient and optimized physical security system.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Validation of Nuclear Data Sensitivity Calculations by the MCNP PERT Card [Poster]

This work validates a method of estimating sensitivities that utilized the MCNP PERT card and tallies. The agreement of the PERT card and Brute Force results proves the validity of calculating nuclear data sensitivities by use of the MCNP PERT card, especially at higher energies. The overall agreement will be easier to understand once an uncertainty analysis is completed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A Dynamic Risk Framework for the Optimization of Physical Security Posture of Nuclear Power Plants

This paper describes an ongoing work within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability pathway at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to optimize security and cost of nuclear power plants. It introduces the dynamic risk assessment tool developed at INL, Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). EMRALD was leveraged to optimize the security posture of a nuclear power plant by integrating force-on-force (FOF) simulations and operator mitigation actions including the dynamic and flexible coping strategies (FLEX). To illustrate the methodology, four attack scenarios were modeled in a commercially available FOF simulation tool using a hypothetical nuclear power plant facility. The simulation results provide valuable insights into possible attack outcomes, as well as the probabilistic risk of core damage event given these outcomes. Safety mitigation procedures were modeled in EMRALD dependent on the attack outcomes by considering human operator uncertainties. The results demonstrate that the number of armed responders can be optimized, while still maintaining the same protection level as the initial security posture. The proposed modeling and simulation framework of integrating FLEX equipment with FOF models enables the nuclear power plants to credit FLEX portable equipment in the plant security posture, resulting in an efficient and optimized physical security system.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Evaluation of Gamma Ray Production - Quarterly Report FY22Q2

The LLNL team has performed the first systematic study of the effect of two-body weak currents in β decay rates across the entire mass table. In light and medium-mass nuclei, two-body weak currents from chiral effective field theory account for a significant portion of the phenomenological quenching of Gamow-Teller transition matrix elements. We examined the systematic effects of two-body axial currents on Gamow-Teller strength and β-decay rates in heavy nuclei within energy-density functional theory. We extended the charge-changing finiteamplitude pnFAM code to incorporate the contributions of two-body currents to the usual onebody linear response in the Gamow-Teller channel. We found that the two-body currents, as expected, usually quench both summed Gamow-Teller strength and decay rates, but by an amount that decreases as the neutron excess grows; see Fig. 1. In addition, they can enhance individual low-lying transitions, leading to decay rates that are quite different from those that an energy-independent quenching would produce, particularly in neutron-rich nuclei. This new physics capability is unique and provides the highest-fidelity description of β decay on the market. The underlying computational implementation can be reused to calculate γ-strength functions for finite-range nuclear potentials such as the Gogny force, which will allow us to benchmark some of our future developments against published results. The paper is in print in Phys. Rev. C.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Universal trend of charge radii of even-even Ca–Zn nuclei

Radii of nuclear charge distributions carry information about the strong and electromagnetic forces acting inside the atomic nucleus. Whereas the global behavior of nuclear charge radii is governed by the bulk properties of nuclear matter, their local trends are affected by quantum motion of proton and neutron nuclear constituents. The measured differential charge radii δ$\langle$$r^{2}_{c}$$\rangle$ between neutron numbers N = 28 and N = 40 exhibit a universal pattern as a function of n = N – 28 that is independent of the atomic number. In this work, we analyze this remarkable behavior in even-even nuclei from calcium to zinc using two state-of-the-art theories based on quantified nuclear interactions: the ab initio coupled cluster theory and nuclear density functional theory. Both theories reproduce the smooth rise of differential charge radii and their weak dependence on the atomic number. By considering a large set of isotopic chains, we show that this trend can be captured by just two parameters: the slope and curvature of δ$\langle$$r^{2}_{c}$$\rangle$(n). We demonstrate that these parameters show appreciable model dependence, and the statistical analysis indicates that they are not correlated with any single model property, i.e., they are impacted by both bulk nuclear properties as well as shell structure.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Muon spin force

Current discrepancy between the measurement and the prediction of the muon anomalous magnetic moment can be resolved in the presence of a long-range force created by ordinary atoms acting on the muon spin via axial-vector and/or pseudoscalar coupling, and requiring a tiny O⁡(10 –13 eV) spin energy splitting between muon state polarized in the vertical direction. We suggest that an extension of the muon spin resonance (μ⁢SR) experiments can provide a definitive test of this class of models. We also derive indirect constraints on the strength of the muon spin force by considering the muon-loop-induced interactions between nuclear spin and external directions. The limits on the muon spin force extracted from the comparison of 199 Hg/ 201 Hg and 129 Xe/ 131 Xe spin precession are strong for the pseudoscalar coupling but are significantly relaxed for the axial-vector one. These limits suffer from significant model uncertainties, poorly known proton/neutron spin content of these nuclei, and therefore do not exclude the possibility of a muon spin force relevant for the muon g – 2.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Business Case Analysis for Digital Safety-Related Instrumentation & Control System Modernizations

The commercial nuclear sector faces unprecedented financial challenges driven by low natural gas prices and subsidized renewables in a marketplace that does not reward carbon-free baseload capacity. These circumstances, along with increasingly antiquated labor-centric operating models and analog technology, have forced the premature closure of multiple nuclear facilities and placed a much larger population of nuclear power stations at risk. Nuclear plant economic survival in current and forecasted market conditions requires an efficient and technology-centric operating model that harvests the native efficiencies of advanced technology. This is analogous to transformations in nearly every other industry. In light of previous industry experience in modernizing safety Instrumentation and Controls (I&C) systems, nuclear utilities are reluctant to pursue these upgrades due to uncertainty in licensing and cost.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Digital Infrastructure Industry Engagement

The commercial nuclear sector faces unprecedented financial challenges driven by low natural gas prices and subsidized renewables in a market that does not reward carbon-free baseload capacity. These circumstances, along with increasingly antiquated labor-centric operating models and analog technology, have forced the early closure of multiple nuclear facilities and placed a much larger population of nuclear stations at risk. Nuclear plant economic survival in current and forecasted market conditions requires an efficient and technology-centric operating model that harvests the native efficiencies of advanced technology. This is analogous to transformations that have occurred in other industries.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Factors Impacting Nuclear Energy Share in U.S. Energy Markets

The purpose of this report is to collate information and findings from recent studies conducted by national and international bodies/institutes to identify approaches for maintaining/enhancing the role of nuclear energy in the current and future energy mix of the United States. This report shows how nuclear generation grew quickly to provide 20% of U.S. electricity, sustaining that level for three decades without the benefit of new construction, but is now projected to decline going forward. Nuclear construction costs in the U.S. spiraled out of control, ending construction for two decades and the recent resumption of construction has continued the pattern of schedule delays and cost overruns. However, nuclear operations exhibited strong learning, achieving and sustaining the highest capacity factor of any electricity generation technology and license extensions and uprates have sustained nuclear market share. The share of nuclear energy in the U.S. electricity market is projected to decline by ~1/3rd over the next 30 years The report provides an overview of how the markets work in theory and in practice. It indicates how market deregulation and clean energy policies have created conditions where nuclear plants are being retired for economic rather than technical reasons. The report also shows how many of the markets do not in practice have free competition but instead have outcomes that are being determined more and more by policy instead of market forces. While electricity costs from existing nuclear plants are low, electricity from new builds is projected to be too expensive to be competitive head-to-head with natural gas, even for nth-of-a-kind costs. Wind and solar energy have enjoyed an extended period of sustained subsidy. This protected environment has resulted in a sustained reduction in plant level costs to the point that some of these Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) technologies are becoming competitive even if their direct subsidies are removed. But plant level costs underestimate total VRE costs which include a number of system-level externalities. The incremental system value of additional VRE capacity was shown to decline as market share increases, with solar value declining more quickly than wind. The report closes with examination of a possible future for nuclear generation as part of deep decarbonization of the electricity sector. This approach avoids direct competition with natural gas. The two options for achieving 100% decarbonization are to use only renewables or to use all zero emissions technologies, and the report shows the second approach is much less expensive than the first.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Thermal and hydraulic performance of volumetrically heated triply periodic minimal surface heaters

Advanced heat transfer surfaces, mainly Triply Periodic Minimal Surfaces (TPMSs) have great potential to increase heat transfer performance over traditional heat transfer surfaces due to their tortuous flow path and higher surface area-volume ratio. The emergence of additive manufacturing of nuclear fuel motivates experimental investigation of such advanced geometries in the context of a nuclear reactor core. Here, this study employed a novel method to explore the performance of gyroid and diamond TPMS geometries. Volumetrically heated heaters were additively manufactured from conductive polymer filament, and airflow was used to simulate the convective heat transfer from the core within a nuclear reactor. The mass flow and volumetric generation rates were varied, local Nusselt number correlations were obtained using embedded thermocouples to measure the solid and fluid temperature, and friction factor correlations were developed using differential pressure measurements. The gyroid TPMS presented a friction factor 1.5 times higher than the diamond TPMS and 90 times that of the rod bundle. TPMS geometries showed Nusselt numbers 8–10 times higher than that of the rod bundle, also maintaining colder internal temperatures, which suggested that they could sustain 250–275 % higher power density than the rod bundle for a given centerline temperature. Hence, having the potential to greatly increase the safety margins and power output of a nuclear reactor core with similar volume.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

On the proper derivation of the Floquet-based quantum classical Liouville equation and surface hopping describing a molecule or material subject to an external field

We investigate different approaches to derive the proper Floquet-based quantum–classical Liouville equation (F-QCLE) for laser-driven electron-nuclear dynamics. The first approach projects the operator form of the standard QCLE onto the diabatic Floquet basis and then transforms to the adiabatic representation. The second approach directly projects the QCLE onto the Floquet adiabatic basis. Both approaches yield a form that is similar to the usual QCLE with two modifications: (1) The electronic degrees of freedom are expanded to infinite dimension and (2) the nuclear motion follows Floquet quasi-energy surfaces. However, the second approach includes an additional cross derivative force due to the dual dependence on time and nuclear motion of the Floquet adiabatic states. Our analysis and numerical tests indicate that this cross derivative force is a fictitious artifact, suggesting that one cannot safely exchange the order of Floquet state projection with adiabatic transformation. Our results are in accord with similar findings by Izmaylov et al., [J. Chem. Phys. 140, 084104 (2014)] who found that transforming to the adiabatic representation must always be the last operation applied, although now we have extended this result to a time-dependent Hamiltonian. Finally, this paper and the proper derivation of the F-QCLE should lay the basis for further improvements of Floquet surface hopping.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

FORCE Update 2024

The Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite is the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Program flagship tool suite for technoeconomic IES analysis of IES. This tool suite is useful for analysis designed to evaluate and improve the technoeconomics of energy production systems, particularly for systems including nuclear technology. In this report, we document the development activity for the FORCE tool suite to extend its capabilities as performed during fiscal year 2024. In addition to reliability and accessibility, capability is one of the three standards guiding the development of the FORCE tool suite and the software codes that are its constituent parts. Extending the capabilities of the FORCE tool suite allows analysis both within the IES program as well as industry, university, and laboratory partners to perform analysis with more accuracy, insight, and impactful narrative. Four areas of capability development were the focus of activity this year: economic parameter uncertainty quantification, multiresolution analysis, components-to-optimization workflow automation, and statespace construction workflows for real-time optimal control. In economic parameter uncertainty quantification, the ability of HERON to capture risk due to scenarios (weather and energy demand uncertainty) was expanded to also include uncertainties in financial parameters such as capital cost or operation and maintenance costs. By including these sources of uncertainty, which are sometimes very large compared with scenario uncertainty, HERON is better able to capture the risk posed by investment in various IES technology. Because of this, analysts can also consider the reduction in risks that can be realized by choice of some technologies. In multiresolution analysis, development activity extended on work completed previously. In fiscal year 2023, methods for decomposing time series signals, such as demand, solar and wind availability, and price profiles, were analyzed and down-selected to those most effective at splitting signals into different resolutions. These resolutions allow considering the influence of different energy demand and supply behaviors across different time scales. For example, energy demand might be divided into seasonal, weekly, and hourly profiles. In fiscal year 2024, this preliminary work was extended and implemented within the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) risk and uncertainty analysis platform, which is used throughout the FORCE framework. This development of the “multi-resolution time series analysis” (MR-TSA) module in RAVEN allows training synthetic history generators on complex time series. These synthetic history generators can then be used in HERON for generating scenarios that represent possible market and weather scenarios that can be analyzed on different time scales. We envision completing this work in the future, implementing multiresolution dispatch optimization strategies that can make the most beneficial use of these stratified time histories. In components-to-optimization workflow development, workflows for translating user inputs of components into algorithms for algebraic optimization were selected and implemented. Similar algorithms within the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) were separated from the main code base of HERON and gathered with the components-to-optimization workflows in the new Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE) software library. This modularization allows FORCE users to analyze dispatch optimization and energy system duty cycles independently of HERON, which previously was a burdensome task. Additionally, these dispatch optimization algorithms, set up in an independent library, can now be used across all software applications within FORCE, especially including the real-time optimal control software Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA). Allowing FORCE software to share dispatch optimization algorithms within a single library allows for improved software maintenance and reliability. In statespace characterization workflow development, alternative workflows for optimizing dispatch with additional technical accuracy was the focus, particularly to improve the real-time optimization decision making in ORCA. Using algorithms and workflows initially developed for the Feasible Actuator Range Modifier (FARM), workflows for determining the statespace representation of IES were identified and demonstrated. The resulting dispatch optimization required a more robust optimization algorithm than that originally used in HERON (and moved to DOVE), which required adding an alternate workflow to DOVE that can more accurately match the behavior of physical systems using a partial differential equation representation. In conclusion, capability developments in the FORCE tool suite in fiscal year 2024 have improved the ability of the FORCE tool suite to perform

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Artificial Intelligence for (AI) Nuclear Security: Expert Perspectives on AI Priorities for the Office of International Nuclear Security

Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to transform nuclear security operations, offering opportunities to enhance effectiveness while simultaneously introducing new challenges. As AI technologies rapidly evolve, agencies across the United States Government (USG) are researching, implementing, and evaluating various AI models and systems. Given the broad capabilities and applications of these technologies, it is essential for each agency to identify and articulate those areas where it can make meaningful contributions aligned with its mission and expertise. To address this need for strategic focus, in late Fiscal Year 2025 (FY2025), the Office of International Nuclear Security (INS) established an AI Task Force (AITF) to gather input from subject matter experts (SMEs) regarding the most appropriate role INS could serve in researching, evaluating, or implementing AI for nuclear security. The AITF engaged 15 experts from national laboratories with backgrounds in cyber security, physical security, transport security, insider threat mitigation, nuclear engineering, human-systems engineering, and AI/ML development. This white paper summarizes the insights gathered from these SMEs and presents a potential roadmap for INS engagement with AI technologies. The recommendations outlined here are intended to inform INS leadership as they make strategic decisions about resource allocation and program direction in this rapidly evolving technological domain.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Analysis using HERON with Industrial Partners

Software Introduction FORCE HERON Case Studies 2017: Nuclear-Renewable IES 2018: Water Desalination (APS) 2019: Hydrogen in Midwest (Exelon) 2020: Hydrogen in Illinois (EPRI) Ongoing Efforts

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Molecular Dynamics Driven by the Many-Body Expansion (MBE-MD)

Here, we present a protocol for classical and nuclear quantum dynamics, in which the energies and forces are generated by the many-body expansion (MBE), and apply it to water clusters using the TTM2.1-F and MB-Pol interaction potentials at various temperatures. We carry out MBE-MD classical and nuclear quantum dynamical simulations in which the energies and forces of the full system are approximated by the 2-, 3-, and 4-body terms of the MBE expansion and compare the average potential and the vibrational density of states (VDOS) with the full simulation, i.e., the one for which no MBE is used. Our results indicate that the thermally averaged potential energy from the MBE up to the 4-body term converges with near identical behavior to the one from the full simulation. The 3-body makes a substantial contribution (~20%) to the energy, whereas the 4- body is necessary for obtaining quantitatively accurate energetics and forces, albeit making a small contribution to each (~2%). We further show that the harmonic frequencies are reproduced to within a few wavenumbers (cm -1 ) at the 4-body level, and that the slowest modes to converge with the MBE rank are those involving the strongest hydrogen bonds. Anharmonicity exacerbates this effect, so that a 4-body description of the energies and forces is needed to achieve accurate anharmonic vibrational frequencies in the hydrogen-bonded OH-stretching region. We also discuss the asymptotic scaling of the MBE-MD protocol with respect to the cost of the underlying potential energy evaluation, suggesting that electronic structure methods that scale at least as N 4 ,N being the size of the system, are needed to result in savings over the traditional full MD simulation. We anticipate that MBE-MD protocol can evolve into a powerful and practical method, which will allow for highly accurate ab initio MD simulations on a much broader range of molecular systems than can be currently handled.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Engineering Scale Drying of Aluminum-Clad Spent Nuclear Fuel: Experiment Report

Engineering-scale tests were performed to evaluate the relative effectiveness of forced gas and vacuum-drying processes on aluminum-clad spent nuclear fuel (ASNF) in preparation for extended dry storage. Drying models were developed to improve confidence in the likely range of conditions at the start of dry storage and to understand the factors most significant to each process. Testing was performed at the Holtec International Forced Helium Dehydration training facility in Camden, New Jersey, by students from the University of South Carolina in collaboration with Idaho National Laboratory. A full-size Type 1a basket, with a full-diameter vessel configuration (based on the Department of Energy standardized canister design), was used in combination with a 10 assembly surrogate ASNF arrangement to provide a proxy for geometry. A resistance heater incorporated in one assembly simulated the influence of 100 W decay heat. This instrumented chamber allowed testing of the removal of bulk water, physisorbed water, and chemisorbed water over a range of operating parameters with either drying process. Thick oxide films were grown on aluminum test plates to mimic the ASNF surface chemistry. These one-use test plates were housed within select assemblies during drying. Post-test analysis of these plates gave a measure of the moisture removed during each test, which was compared to a control. Instrumentation provided detailed thermal, humidity, and gas or pressure data relevant to each test. Model simulations generally compared favorably to instrument data for the tests. While both processes were able to remove bulk water, removal of chemisorbed water was shown to depend heavily on local temperature. To the disadvantage of vacuum drying, operations approaching or exceeding 220°C achieved consistently more dehydroxylation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

INTEGRATION OF FLEX EQUIPMENT AND OPERATOR ACTIONS IN PLANT FORCE-ON-FORCE MODELS WITH DYNAMIC RISK ASSESSMENT

The overall operation and maintenance cost to protect nuclear power plants accounts for approximately 7% of the total cost of power generation, with labor accounting for half of this cost. In the current research, from interaction with utilities and other stakeholders, it was determined that physical security forces account for nearly 20% of the entire workforce at several nuclear power plants. Labor costs continue to rise in the U.S., so any measures to reduce the cost of operating a nuclear power plant will need to include a reduction in labor. The physical security pathway within the DOE’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability program aims to lower the cost of physical security through directed research into modeling and simulation, application of advanced sensors or deployment of advanced weapons. This report presents a modeling and simulation framework for integrating Diverse and Flexible Mitigation Capability (FLEX) portable equipment performance with Force on Force models of a plant’s physical security posture. The generic framework is described in detail, followed by a case study of modeling an adversarial attack aimed at causing a radiological release by sabotaging the plant’s power supply and its ultimate heat sink capabilities at a hypothetical nuclear power plant. Two different FLEX deployment strategies, series and parallel, are modeled with distinct timelines. The results of the adversarial attack modeled in a commercial Force on Force tool are integrated with the FLEX deployment model in INL’s dynamic modeling tool EMRALD. Monte Carlo simulation is used to model the distribution of the timeline in FLEX deployment strategies. The results demonstrate that, even in the extreme case of a successful adversarial attack, deployment of FLEX equipment can result in a significantly high likelihood of preventing radiological release. The modeling and simulation framework integrating FLEX equipment with Force on Force models enables the nuclear power plants to credit FLEX portable equipment in the plant security posture, resulting in an efficient and optimized physical security.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗