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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

A hybrid calibration approach to Hertz-type contact parameters for discrete element models

This study aims at providing a hybrid calibration framework to estimate Hertz-type contact parameters (particle-scale shear modulus and Poisson ratio) for both two-dimensional and three-dimensional discrete element modelling (DEM). On the basis of statistically isotropic granular packings, a set of analytical formulae between macroscopic material parameters (Young modulus and Poisson ratio) and particle-scale Hertz-type contact parameters for granular systems are derived under small-strain isotropic stress conditions. However, the derived analytical solutions are only estimated values for general models. By viewing each DEM modelling as an implicit mathematical function taking the particle-level parameters as independent variables and employing the derived analytical solutions as the initial input parameters, an automatic iterative scheme is proposed to obtain the calibrated parameters with higher accuracies. Considering highly nonlinear features and discontinuities of the macro-micro relationship in Hertz-based discrete element models, the adaptive moment estimation algorithm is adopted in this study because of its capacity of dealing with noise gradients of cost functions. Here, the proposed method is validated with several numerical cases including randomly distributed monodisperse and polydisperse packings. Noticeable improvements in terms of calibration efficiency and accuracy have been made.

Constitutive law↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling injection-induced fault slip using long short-term memory networks

Stress changes due to changes in fluid pressure and temperature in a faulted formation may lead to the opening/shearing of the fault. This can be due to subsurface (geo)engineering activities such as fluid injections and geologic disposal of nuclear waste. Such activities are expected to rise in the future making it necessary to assess their short- and long-term safety. Here, a new machine learning (ML) approach to model pore pressure and fault displacements in response to high-pressure fluid injection cycles is developed. The focus is on fault behavior near the injection borehole. To capture the temporal dependencies in the data, long short-term memory (LSTM) networks are utilized. To prevent error accumulation within the forecast window, four critical measures to train a robust LSTM model for predicting fault response are highlighted: (i) setting an appropriate value of LSTM lag, (ii) calibrating the LSTM cell dimension, (iii) learning rate reduction during weight optimization, and (iv) not adopting an independent injection cycle as a validation set. Several numerical experiments were conducted, which demonstrated that the ML model can capture peaks in pressure and associated fault displacement that accompany an increase in fluid injection. The model also captured the decay in pressure and displacement during the injection shut-in period. Further, the ability of an ML model to highlight key changes in fault hydromechanical activation processes was investigated, which shows that ML can be used to monitor risk of fault activation and leakage during high pressure fluid injections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development and validation of a mathematical model of heart rate response to fluid perturbation

Physiological closed-loop controlled (PCLC) medical devices monitor and automatically adjust the patient’s condition by using physiological variables as feedback, ideally with minimal human intervention to achieve the target levels set by a clinician. PCLC devices present a challenge when it comes to evaluating their performance, where conducting large clinical trials can be expensive. Virtual physiological patients simulated by validated mathematical models can be utilized to obtain preclinical evidence of safety and assess the performance of the PCLC medical device during normal and worst-case conditions that are unlikely to happen in a limited clinical trial. A physiological variable that plays a major role during fluid resuscitation is heart rate (HR). For in silico assessment of PCLC medical devices regarding fluid perturbation, there is currently no mathematical model of HR validated in terms of its predictive capability performance. This paper develops and validates a mathematical model of HR response using data collected from sheep subjects undergoing hemorrhage and fluid infusion. The model proved to be accurate in estimating the HR response to fluid perturbation, where averaged between 21 calibration datasets, the fitting performance showed a normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 7.41 ± 2.8%. The model was also evaluated in terms of model predictive capability performance via a leave-one-out procedure (21 subjects) and an independent validation dataset (6 subjects). Two different virtual cohort generation tools were used in each validation analysis. The generated envelope of virtual subjects robustly met the defined acceptance criteria, in which 95% of the testing datasets presented simulated HR patterns that were within a deviation of 50% from the observed data. In addition, out of 16000 and 18522 simulated subjects for the leave one-out and independent datasets, the model was able to generate at least one virtual subject that was close to the real subject within an error margin of 9.56 ± 3.15% and 11.1 ± 1.22% NRMSE, respectively. In conclusion, the model can generate valid virtual HR physiological responses to fluid perturbation and be incorporated into future non-clinical simulated testing setups for assessing PCLC devices intended for fluid resuscitation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

An anisotropic viscoplasticity model for shale based on layered microstructure homogenization

Viscoplastic deformation of shale is frequently observed in many subsurface applications. Many studies have suggested that this viscoplastic behavior is anisotropic—specifically, transversely isotropic—and closely linked to the layered composite structure at the microscale. In this work, we develop a two-scale constitutive model for shale in which anisotropic viscoplastic behavior naturally emerges from semianalytical homogenization of a bilayer microstructure. The microstructure is modeled as a composite of soft layers, representing a ductile matrix formed by clay and organics, and hard layers, corresponding to a brittle matrix composed of stiff minerals. This layered microstructure renders the macroscopic behavior anisotropic, even when the individual layers are modeled with isotropic constitutive laws. Using a common correlation between clay and organic content and magnitude of creep, we apply a viscoplastic modified Cam-Clay plasticity model to the soft layers, while treating the hard layers as a linear elastic material to minimize the number of calibration parameters. We then describe the implementation of the proposed model in a standard material update subroutine. The model is validated with laboratory creep data on samples from three gas shale formations. We also demonstrate the computational behavior of the proposed model through simulation of time-dependent borehole closure in a shale formation with different bedding plane directions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting distribution of malaria vector larval habitats in Ethiopia by integrating distributed hydrologic modeling with remotely sensed data

Abstract Larval source management has gained renewed interest as a malaria control strategy in Africa but the widespread and transient nature of larval breeding sites poses a challenge to its implementation. To address this problem, we propose combining an integrated high resolution (50 m) distributed hydrological model and remotely sensed data to simulate potential malaria vector aquatic habitats. The novelty of our approach lies in its consideration of irrigation practices and its ability to resolve complex ponding processes that contribute to potential larval habitats. The simulation was performed for the year of 2018 using ParFlow-Common Land Model (CLM) in a sugarcane plantation in the Oromia region, Ethiopia to examine the effects of rainfall and irrigation. The model was calibrated using field observations of larval habitats to successfully predict ponding at all surveyed locations from the validation dataset. Results show that without irrigation, at least half of the area inside the farms had a 40% probability of potential larval habitat occurrence. With irrigation, the probability increased to 56%. Irrigation dampened the seasonality of the potential larval habitats such that the peak larval habitat occurrence window during the rainy season was extended into the dry season. Furthermore, the stability of the habitats was prolonged, with a significant shift from semi-permanent to permanent habitats. Our study provides a hydrological perspective on the impact of environmental modification on malaria vector ecology, which can potentially inform malaria control strategies through better water management.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Technical and Economic Evaluation of the First Ever Polymer Flood Field Pilot to Enhance the Recovery of Heavy Oils on Alaska's North Slope via Machine Assisted History Matching

Polymer flooding has become globally established as a potential enhanced oil recovery method for heavy oils. To determine whether this technology may be useful in developing the substantial heavy oil resources on the Alaska North Slope, a polymer flood field pilot commenced at the Milne Point Unit in August 2018. This study seeks to evaluate the results of the field pilot on a technical and economic basis. A reservoir simulation model is constructed and calibrated to predict the oil recovery performance of the pilot through machine-assisted reservoir simulation techniques. To replicate the early water breakthrough observed during waterflooding, transmissibility contrasts are introduced into the simulation model, forcing viscous fingering effects. In the ensuing polymer flood, these transmissibility contrasts are reduced to replicate the restoration of injection conformance during polymer flooding. Transmissibility contrasts are later reinstated to replicate fracture overextension interpreted in one of the producing wells. The calibrated simulation models produced at each stage of the history matching process are used to forecast oil recovery. These forecasts are used as input for economic analysis, incremental to waterflooding expectations. The simulation forecasts indicate that polymer flooding significantly increases the heavy oil production for this field pilot compared to waterflooding alone, yielding attractive project economics. However, meaningful variations between simulation scenarios demonstrate that a simulation model is only valid for prediction if flow behavior in the reservoir remains consistent with that observed during the history matched period. Critically, this means that a simulation model calibrated for waterflooding may not fully capture the technical and economic benefits of an enhanced oil recovery process such as polymer flooding. Subsequently, the simulation model and economic model are used in conjunction to conduct a sensitivity analysis for polymer flood design parameters, from which recommendations are provided for both the continued operation of the current field pilot and future polymer flood designs. The results demonstrate that a higher polymer concentration can be injected due to the development of fractures in the reservoir. The throughput rate should remain high without exceeding operating constraints. A calculated point-forward polymer utilization parameter demonstrates the decreasing efficiency of the polymer flood at later times in the pattern life. Future projects will benefit from starting polymer injection earlier in the pattern life. A pattern with tighter horizontal well spacing will observe a greater incremental benefit from polymer flooding.

Keith, Cody↗
DOE OSTI2022

304L Can Crush Validation Studies

Accurate prediction of ductile behavior of structural alloys up to and including failure is essential in component or system failure assessment, which is necessary for nuclear weapons alteration and life extensions programs of Sandia National Laboratories. Modeling such behavior requires computational capabilities to robustly capture strong nonlinearities (geometric and material), rate- dependent and temperature-dependent properties, and ductile failure mechanisms. This study's objective is to validate numerical simulations of a high-deformation crush of a stainless steel can. The process consists of identifying a suitable can geometry and loading conditions, conducting the laboratory testing, developing a high-quality Sierra/SM simulation, and then drawing comparisons between model and measurement to assess the fitness of the simulation in regards to material model (plasticity), finite element model construction, and failure model. Following previous material model calibration, a J 2 plasticity model with a microstructural BCJ failure model is employed to model the test specimen made of 304L stainless steel. Simulated results are verified and validated through mesh and mass-scaling convergence studies, parameter sensitivity studies, and a comparison to experimental data. The converged mesh and degree of mass-scaling are the mesh discretization with 140,372 elements, and a mass scaling with a target time increment of 1.0e-6 seconds and time step scale factor of 0.5, respectively. Results from the coupled thermal-mechanical explicit dynamic analysis are comparable to the experimental data. Simulated global force vs displacement (F/D) response predicts key points such as yield, ultimate, and kinks of the experimental F/D response. Furthermore, the final deformed shape of the can and field data predicted from the analysis are similar to that of the deformed can, as measured by 3D optical CMM scans and DIC data from the experiment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Report of METL Mutual Inductance Level Sensor Development for Use in Liquid Metals – FY2023

A robust mutual inductance level sensor (MILS) for use in high temperature liquid metals has been developed at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL). The current design utilizes mineral insulated cables with a 300-series stainless steel sheath, magnesium oxide insulation, and a single copper conductor. Two coils are wrapped on a common core made of a 300-series stainless steel tube. One coil is energized with an alternating current (AC) source, and this electromagnetically couples with the second coil to generate an induced voltage. The voltage is measured to determine the mutual induction between the coils, and the mutual inductance measurement can be used to determine the level of a nearby liquid metal volume. The MILS can be located in an isolating thimble that is fully sealed to a vessel containing liquid metal for ease of maintenance and replacement. When the primary coil is energized with the AC source, the coil not only electromagnetic (EM) couples with the second coil, but also the surrounding liquid metal. The EM coupling with the surrounding liquid metal reduces the EM coupling with the second coil, producing an inverse-linear relationship between liquid metal level and secondary coil voltage. This has all been demonstrated at the Mechanisms Engineering Test Loop (METL) liquid sodium facility at ANL. The most current iteration of the MILS system is the MILS-MK-II. This sensor system has been commissioned in a non-sodium test stand where calibrations were performed using a sodium analog. The calibrations proved to be highly linear and repeatable. The MILS-MK-II has been installed in the METL expansion tank where high temperature sodium tests have been performed. The MILS-MK-II has been calibrated against a known standard at temperature of 300°C, and the calibrations have proved to be highly linear and repeatable. The calibrated MILS-MK-II has been in operation in the METL facility for several thousands of hours at temperatures around 300°C. The experimental data has been used to develop and validate electromagnetic finite element models in COMSOL Multiphysics, and now these models can be used to advance the development of the sensor system. Next steps will include temperature compensation to allow for operation at various temperatures. Additionally, efforts to incorporate a self-calibration methodology are underway.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

A nomogram for prediction of stage III/IV gastric cancer outcome after surgery: A multicenter population‐based study

Abstract Most patients with gastric cancer (GC) are first diagnosed at stage III‐IV and surgery resection remains the primary therapeutic modality for these patients. However, clinical staging used for prediction of those patients provides limited information. We collected clinicopathological data and disease‐progression information from 508 patients with stage III‐IV GC at three Chinese hospitals and 1298 patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Based on the stepwise multivariate regression model, we constructed a novel nomogram to predict overall survival (OS). The performance of discrimination for this model was measured using Harrell's concordance index (C‐index) and receiver‐operating characteristic curve (ROC), and was validated using calibration plots. Multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that tumor size, age at diagnosis, N stage, tumor grade, and distant metastases were outstanding independent prognostic factors of stage III‐IV GC. We developed a nomogram based on these five prognostic predictors. In the training set, the C‐index of the nomogram was 0.645 (95% CI: 0.611‐0.679), which was higher than that of the American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM system alone (sixth TNM: 0.544; seventh TNM: 0.575; eighth TNM: 0.568). Similar results were observed in validation cohort. Moreover, calibration blots demonstrated good consistency between the actual and predicted OS probabilities. According to the nomogram, GC individuals could be classified into three groups (low‐, middle‐, and high‐risk) ( P < .001). Our nomogram complements the current staging system for prediction of individual prognosis with stage III‐IV GC, and may be helpful for making individualized treatment decisions.

Gao, Zhiying↗
DOE OSTI2020

Residual Stress Modeling with Phase Transformation for Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing of B91 Steel

Wire arc additive manufacturing (WAAM) is an energy-efficient manufacturing technique used for near-net-shape production of functional industrial components. However, heat accumulation during deposition and the associated mechanical and metallurgical changes result in complex residual stress profiles across the cross section of the fabricated components. These residual stresses are detrimental to the service life of the components. In this study, sequentially coupled thermomechanical analysis of WAAM B91 steel is conducted to quantify the residual stress variation across the component. The thermomechanical analysis includes a transient heat transfer model and a static stress model that incorporates the transformation-induced plasticity due to martensitic phase transformation. Here, the experimentally calibrated heat transfer model mirrors the temperature variation of the system during the deposition. The results from the stress model are validated via x-ray diffraction measurements, and the numerical results are in good agreement with the experimental data.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A simulation framework for evaluating electronic order workflows in integrated health records

Electronic health record (EHR) systems are critical to modern healthcare delivery, yet the dynamic workflows that govern electronic order processing remain underexplored. Inefficiencies in these digital pathways can cause delays in care, repetitive workloads, and even patient harm. This study presents a discrete-event simulation framework used to reconstruct and evaluate EHR-based order workflows in a large integrated healthcare system. Using real-world data extracted from the Veterans Health Administration’s Corporate Data Warehouse, the authors mapped order events to standardized state transitions and modeled their progression across different facilities of varying complexity levels. After being calibrated with empirical distributions of transition times and validated against observed time-in-system metrics, the simulation demonstrates close alignment with historical performance. Scenario analyses reveal that resource capacity constraints significantly amplify the impact of electronic order surges, which are reflected in the disproportionate growth in backlogs and processing delays. Adjustments in transition probabilities further increased recirculation and extended workflow paths. Network-based analysis identified Reserved, InProgress, and Completed as structurally critical states that function as hubs within the process network but the transitions in-between also act as major bottlenecks. These results showcased the effectiveness of simulation-based approaches in monitoring EHR order processing performance and evaluating consequences of workflow changes on healthcare network resources planning. The proposed simulation framework provides a scalable data-driven tool to support operational decision-making and improve the efficiency of electronic order management in complex healthcare environments.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2021

How Equivalent Are Equivalent Porous Media?

Abstract Geoenergy and geoengineering applications usually involve fluid injection into and production from fractured media. Accounting for fractures is important because of the strong poromechanical coupling that ties pore pressure changes and deformation. A possible approach to the problem uses equivalent porous media to reduce the computational cost and model complexity instead of explicitly including fractures in the models. We investigate the validity of this simplification by comparing these two approaches. Simulation results show that pore pressure distribution significantly differs between the two approaches even when both are calibrated to predict identical values at the injection and production wells. Additionally, changes in fracture stability are not well captured with the equivalent porous medium. We conclude that explicitly accounting for fractures in numerical models may be necessary under some circumstances to perform reliable coupled thermohydromechanical simulations, which could be used in conjunction with other tools for induced seismicity forecasting.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Initial steady-state core simulation capability or thermal and pool-type molten salt reactors, coupling reactor physics, thermal-hydraulics, and evolving chemistry

This report presents the development and validation of an initial steady-state multiphysics capability for molten salt reactors (MSRs) under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program in Fiscal Year 2025. The framework integrates neutronics, thermal-hydraulics, species transport, and thermochemistry to capture the coupled dynamics of liquid-fueled systems. Implementation and testing were performed on two representative designs: the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE), a thermal-spectrum, channeled-flow reactor, and the Lotus Molten Salt Reactor (L-MSR), a fast-spectrum, pool-type reactor. The modeling suite employs Griffin for reactor physics and depletion, Pronghorn and SAM for thermal-hydraulics, Thermochimica for chemistry, and Saline for thermophysical properties, with benchmarking and validation carried out against historical MSRE data, experimental flow-loop measurements, and reference depletion calculations from Monte Carlo codes. The framework demonstrated the ability to reproduce key reactor behaviors including temperature feedback, reactivity losses, delayed neutron precursor transport, xenon poisoning, and redox potential evolution. The results confirm the feasibility and accuracy of the coupled models in predicting steady-state and selected transient MSR behaviors. This latter ones are used in this report as a proxy indicating that the steady-state models from which the transient starts are accurate. For MSRE, validation showed good agreement with pump start-up and natural circulation tests, while for the L-MSR, benchmarking confirmed hydraulic calibration and consistency of neutronics–thermal coupling. The tools also provided new insights into species transport, noble metal deposition, and salt solidification dynamics. On the Xenon transport front, the code is validated against the steady state Xenon poisoining measurement and showed good agreement with the experimental value. Identified areas for future work include advanced void transport modeling, three-dimensional simulations, improved alloy corrosion models, and tighter integration with high-fidelity Monte Carlo codes. These developments provide a foundation for high-fidelity MSR simulations that can support reactor design optimization, safety assessments, and long-term operational strategies.

42 - ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

A leaf-level spectral library to support high-throughput plant phenotyping: predictive accuracy and model transfer

Abstract Leaf-level hyperspectral reflectance has become an effective tool for high-throughput phenotyping of plant leaf traits due to its rapid, low-cost, multi-sensing, and non-destructive nature. However, collecting samples for model calibration can still be expensive, and models show poor transferability among different datasets. This study had three specific objectives: first, to assemble a large library of leaf hyperspectral data (n=2460) from maize and sorghum; second, to evaluate two machine-learning approaches to estimate nine leaf properties (chlorophyll, thickness, water content, nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, calcium, magnesium, and sulfur); and third, to investigate the usefulness of this spectral library for predicting external datasets (n=445) including soybean and camelina using extra-weighted spiking. Internal cross-validation showed satisfactory performance of the spectral library to estimate all nine traits (mean R2=0.688), with partial least-squares regression outperforming deep neural network models. Models calibrated solely using the spectral library showed degraded performance on external datasets (mean R2=0.159 for camelina, 0.337 for soybean). Models improved significantly when a small portion of external samples (n=20) was added to the library via extra-weighted spiking (mean R2=0.574 for camelina, 0.536 for soybean). The leaf-level spectral library greatly benefits plant physiological and biochemical phenotyping, whilst extra-weight spiking improves model transferability and extends its utility.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Non-destructive measurement and real-time monitoring of apple hardness during ultrasonic contact drying via portable NIR spectroscopy and machine learning

Portable near-infrared spectrometer in the spectral range of 900–1700 nm was evaluated for the first time to assess and monitor apple hardness in real-time during ultrasonic drying. Calibration models were developed using PLS and ANN, and their performances were evaluated by internal leave-one-out cross-validation and an external dataset. Several pre-treatments including standard normal variate (SNV), multiplicative scatter correction (MSC), Savitzky–Golay first and second derivatives were employed to examine the effects of spectral variations in hardness prediction. Seven important wavelengths were selected using weighted regression coefficients to develop a simple MLR model to facilitate the model interpretation and circumvent noise. The models using PLS, MLR, and ANN with selected wavelengths predicted the apple hardness with R 2 p of 0.91, 0.91, 0.95, and RMSEP of 14.78, 14.85, and 12.46 N, respectively. Finally, the results indicate that portable NIR spectrometers are quite promising for real-time monitoring of apple hardness during ultrasonic drying.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

First M87 Event Horizon Telescope Results. VII. Polarization of the Ring

In 2017 April, the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observed the near-horizon region around the supermassive black hole at the core of the M87 galaxy. These 1.3 mm wavelength observations revealed a compact asymmetric ring-like source morphology. This structure originates from synchrotron emission produced by relativistic plasma located in the immediate vicinity of the black hole. Here we present the corresponding linear-polarimetric EHT images of the center of M87. We find that only a part of the ring is significantly polarized. The resolved fractional linear polarization has a maximum located in the southwest part of the ring, where it rises to the level of ~15%. The polarization position angles are arranged in a nearly azimuthal pattern. We perform quantitative measurements of relevant polarimetric properties of the compact emission and find evidence for the temporal evolution of the polarized source structure over one week of EHT observations. The details of the polarimetric data reduction and calibration methodology are provided. We carry out the data analysis using multiple independent imaging and modeling techniques, each of which is validated against a suite of synthetic data sets. The gross polarimetric structure and its apparent evolution with time are insensitive to the method used to reconstruct the image. These polarimetric images carry information about the structure of the magnetic fields responsible for the synchrotron emission. Their physical interpretation is discussed in an accompanying publication.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling of Stress and Temperature Effects on Creep of Reduced Activation Ferritic-Martensitic Steel Alloy F82H (Tertiary Creep Modeling of RAFM Steel)

A Bayesian optimization procedure is presented for calibrating a multi-mechanism micromechanical model for creep to experimental data of F82H steel. Reduced activation ferritic martensitic (RAFM) steels based on are the most promising candidates for some fusion reactor structures. Although there are indications that RAFM steel could be viable for fusion applications at temperatures up to 600 °C, the maximum operating temperature will be determined by the creep properties of the structural material and the breeder material compatibility with the structural material. Due to the relative paucity of available creep data on F82H steel compared to other alloys such as Grade 91 steel, micromechanical models are sought for simulating creep based on relevant deformation mechanisms. As a point of departure, this work recalibrates a model form that was previously proposed for Grade 91 steel to match creep curves for F82H steel. Due to the large number of parameters (9) and cost of the nonlinear simulations, an automated approach for tuning the parameters is pursued using a recently developed Bayesian optimization for functional output (BOFO) framework [1]. Incorporating extensions such as batch sequencing and weighted experimental load cases into BOFO, a reasonably small error between experimental and simulated creep curves at two load levels is achieved in a reasonable number of iterations. Validation with an additional creep curve provides confidence in the fitted parameters obtained from the automated calibration procedure to describe the creep behavior of F82H steel at 600 °C. The model is further extended using a temperature dependent scaling law approach to simulate creep response between 550 °C and 650 °C. The efficacy of this extension is compared with the previously used scaling law approach for Grade 91 steel.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predictive numerical modeling of plasma-induced surface roughness and wettability evolution in LM-PAEK/CF tape

Plasma surface modification effectively enhances adhesion in thermoplastic composites, yet its impacts on high-performance polymers like low-melting polyaryletherketone (LM-PAEK) remain inadequately quantified. Here, this study integrates experimental analysis and numerical modeling to characterize surface roughness and wettability changes in LM-PAEK/carbon fiber composites treated with atmospheric plasma. Atomic Force Microscopy quantified surface topography (n = 10 per condition for contact angles), while static contact-angle assessments measured wettability. Roughness rapidly increased from ∼0.2 nm to 1.6 nm, and contact angle reduced from ∼90° to 24°, both stabilizing after 25–30 s of exposure. A semi-empirical, physics-informed framework was calibrated to these data, coupling surface chemistry via the Owens–Wendt decomposition with topography via the Wenzel roughness factor, and evaluated using out-of-sample (cross-validated) tests, while static contact angle assessments measured wettability. Numerical predictions matched experimental results closely (RMSE <5%, R 2 > 0.95). Incorporating material-specific parameters, the calibrated model supports plasma-treatment optimization and provides quantitative guidance for improving interfacial adhesion in thermoplastic composite manufacturing.

Atomic Force Microscopy↗