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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2021

Impact of Urban Pollution on Organic-Mediated New-Particle Formation and Particle Number Concentration in the Amazon Rainforest

A major challenge in assessing the impact of aerosols on climate change is to understand how human activities change aerosol loading and properties relative to the pristine-preindustrial baseline. Here we combine chemical transport simulation and field measurements to investigate the effect of anthropogenic pollution from an isolated metropolis on particle number concentration over the preindustrial-like Amazon rainforest through various new-particle formation (NPF) mechanisms and primary particle emissions. To represent organic-mediated NPF, we employ a state-of-the-art model that systematically simulates the formation chemistry and thermodynamics of extremely low volatility organic compounds as well as their roles in NPF processes, and further update the model to improve organic NPF simulations under human-influenced conditions. Results show that urban pollution from the metropolis increases particle number concentration by a factor of 5–25 over the downwind region (within 200 km from city center) compared to background conditions. Overall, our model indicates that NPF contributes over 70% of the total particle number in the downwind region except immediately adjacent to the sources. Among different NPF mechanisms, the ternary NPF involving organics and sulfuric acid overwhelmingly dominates. The improved understanding of particle formation mechanisms will help better quantify anthropogenic aerosol forcing from pristine-preindustrial times to present day.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A general framework for removing point-spread function additive systematics in cosmological weak lensing analysis

ABSTRACT Cosmological weak lensing measurements rely on a precise measurement of the shear two-point correlation function (2PCF) along with a deep understanding of systematics that affect it. In this work, we demonstrate a general framework for detecting and modelling the impact of PSF systematics on the cosmic shear 2PCF and mitigating its impact on cosmological analysis. Our framework can detect PSF leakage and modelling error from all spin-2 quantities contributed by the PSF second and higher moments, rather than just the second moments, using the cross-correlations between galaxy shapes and PSF moments. We interpret null tests using the HSC Year 3 (Y3) catalogs with this formalism and find that leakage from the spin-2 combination of PSF fourth moments is the leading contributor to additive shear systematics, with total contamination that is an order-of-magnitude higher than that contributed by PSF second moments alone. We conducted a mock cosmic shear analysis for HSC Y3 and find that, if uncorrected, PSF systematics can bias the cosmological parameters Ωm and S8 by ∼0.3σ. The traditional second moment-based model can only correct for a 0.1σ bias, leaving the contamination largely uncorrected. We conclude it is necessary to model both PSF second and fourth moment contaminations for HSC Y3 cosmic shear analysis. We also reanalyse the HSC Y1 cosmic shear analysis with our updated systematics model and identify a 0.07σ bias on Ωm when using the more restricted second moment model from the original analysis. We demonstrate how to self-consistently use the method in both real space and Fourier space, assess shear systematics in tomographic bins, and test for PSF model overfitting.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

2022 GETEM Geothermal Drilling Cost Curve Update: Preprint

The Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) is an essential tool for the Department of Energy's (DOE) Geothermal Technology Office (GTO) to understand the performance and cost of technologies it is seeking to improve. This detailed model is used for supply curve analyses, assessing the current economic feasibility and Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of hydrothermal geothermal systems and EGS, and evaluating the potential impact of advanced geothermal technologies. GETEM can be used to estimate the performance and costs of currently available U.S. geothermal power systems. It is also used to estimate the costs of technologies 5 to 20 years in the future, given the direction of potential research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) projects. The model is intended to help GTO determine which proposed RD&D programs and projects might offer the most efficient improvement when using taxpayer funding. The model requires annual updates as well as revisions to reflect the current state of the art. Drilling costs are a significant portion of total geothermal development costs. The current GETEM drilling cost inputs rely on drilling data from 2009 and require an updated analysis of more recent data to ensure they remain representative of current technologies. An updated, more accurate understanding of costs could help the geothermal industry secure project development financing and investment funding and better allow the oil and gas (O&G) industry (both operators and service companies) weigh potential geothermal market participation and customization. This report details recent drilling improvements from the Utah Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) and O&G, comparing drilling performance and costs with values in GETEM, particularly the baseline drilling cost curves. Though drilling performance at FORGE has improved significantly, we did not find associated cost decreases that would justify lowering the GETEM baseline cost curves as of now.

API↗

DOE OSTI2024

From peak to plummet: impending decline of the warm Arctic-cold continents phenomenon

Abstract This study assesses the projected trajectory of Warm Arctic-Cold Continent (WACC) events in East Asia and North America through large ensemble simulation for the upcoming decades. It analyses the evolution of the geographical boundaries of threshold cold temperatures, revealing a significant northward shift as a sign of global warming’s impact on the southward advancement of Arctic cold air. While validating the intensification of the WACC phenomenon until the 2020 s, echoing earlier studies, the findings indicate a marked decrease beginning in the 2030s. If warming is not curbed, this shift suggests a critical modification in the WACC pattern, prompting a re-evaluation of existing theories and models for extreme winter weather events. The results have major implications, spurring communities impacted by WACC to anticipate future changes and encouraging the climate forecasting community to update conceptual models for improved adaptation and mitigation approaches.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2020

Using onset times from frequent seismic surveys to understand fluid flow at the Peace River Field, Canada

With our limited knowledge of the relationship between changes in the state of an aquifer or reservoir and the corresponding changes in the elastic moduli, that is the rock physics model, hampers the effective use of time-lapse seismic observations for estimating flow properties within the Earth. A central problem is the complicated dependence of the magnitude of time-lapse changes on the saturation, pressure, and temperature changes within an aquifer or reservoir. We describe an inversion methodology for reservoir characterization that uses onset times, the calendar time of the change in seismic attributes, rather than the magnitude of the changes. We find that onset times are much less sensitive than magnitudes to the rock physics model used to relate time-lapse observations to changes in saturation, temperature and fluid pressure. We apply the inversion scheme to observations from daily monitoring of enhanced oil recovery at the Peace River field in Canada. An array of 1492 buried hydrophones record seismic signals from 49 buried sources. Time-shifts for elastic waves traversing the reservoir are extracted from the daily time-lapse cubes. In our analysis 175 images of time-shifts are transformed into a single map of onset times, leading to a substantial reduction in the volume of data. These observations are used in conjunction with bottom hole pressure data to infer the initial conditions prior to the injection, and to update the reservoir permeability model. The combination of a global and local inversion scheme produces a collection of reservoir models that are best described by three clusters. The updated model leads to a nearly 70 percent reduction in seismic data misfit. The final set of solutions successfully predict the observed normalized pressure history during the soak and flow-back into the wells between 82 and 175 days into the cyclic steaming operation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fall 2023 Solar Industry Update [Slides]

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry. This quarter we also provide additional analysis on the domestic content of U.S. PV installations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Winter 2024 Solar Industry Update

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spring 2024 Solar Industry Update

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Summer 2024: Solar Industry Update [Slides]

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Developing Data-Driven Synthetic Infrastructure Models for Resilience Analysis

Research on infrastructure resilience has produced promising methods to simulate and optimize complex networks to improve performance. However, restrictions on sharing infrastructure models and the steep cost of developing and maintaining infrastructure models presents a roadblock to adoption. To overcome this limitation, this research focuses on methods to create data-driven infrastructure models that will help improve infrastructure resilience and security. The analysis couples incomplete utility data, geospatial data, machine learning, and synthetic network generation methods to rapidly develop and update infrastructure models. The methods are validated using realistic utility models and site-specific data, with a focus on Puerto Rico due to its unique infrastructure challenges and available data. This research highlights promising opportunities for the use of synthetic network generation and machine learning to create infrastructure models when very little data is available. Results demonstrate that hybrid methods, which combine sparse utility data with synthetic models, can enhance model accuracy, and machine learning can predict model attributes using training data from other models. However, the complexity of infrastructure systems means that even minor changes in network connectivity can significantly impact simulation results. Resilience analysis using synthetic infrastructure models shows that while some system behaviors are preserved, the magnitude of disruptions may not be accurately represented, indicating the need for more research and validation before using synthetic models for critical infrastructure investment decisions. The framework outlined in this report represents a significant advance to infrastructure model development and could be applied to additional domains and sites. Future research will continue to streamline and validate methods to help reduce roadblocks to resilience analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fall 2024 Solar Industry Update [Slides]

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spring 2025 Solar Industry Update [Slides]

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Summer 2025 Solar Industry Update [Slides]

Each quarter, NREL conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Fall 2025 Solar Industry Update [Slides]

Each quarter, the National Laboratory of the Rockies conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Winter 2026 Solar and Storage Industry Update

Each quarter, the Nationa Laboratory of the Rockies conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Impacts of Model Building Energy Codes – Interim Update

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Energy Codes Program (BECP) periodically evaluates state and national impacts associated with energy codes in residential and commercial buildings. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), funded by DOE, assessed the prospective impacts of national model building energy codes from 2010 through 2040. The model codes of interest in this report are the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) for residential buildings and ASHRAE Standard 90.1 for commercial buildings. This report describes the methodology used for the assessment and presents the impacts in terms of energy savings, consumer cost savings, and reduced CO 2 emissions at the state and national levels.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

An anisotropic viscoplasticity model for shale based on layered microstructure homogenization

Viscoplastic deformation of shale is frequently observed in many subsurface applications. Many studies have suggested that this viscoplastic behavior is anisotropic—specifically, transversely isotropic—and closely linked to the layered composite structure at the microscale. In this work, we develop a two-scale constitutive model for shale in which anisotropic viscoplastic behavior naturally emerges from semianalytical homogenization of a bilayer microstructure. The microstructure is modeled as a composite of soft layers, representing a ductile matrix formed by clay and organics, and hard layers, corresponding to a brittle matrix composed of stiff minerals. This layered microstructure renders the macroscopic behavior anisotropic, even when the individual layers are modeled with isotropic constitutive laws. Using a common correlation between clay and organic content and magnitude of creep, we apply a viscoplastic modified Cam-Clay plasticity model to the soft layers, while treating the hard layers as a linear elastic material to minimize the number of calibration parameters. We then describe the implementation of the proposed model in a standard material update subroutine. The model is validated with laboratory creep data on samples from three gas shale formations. We also demonstrate the computational behavior of the proposed model through simulation of time-dependent borehole closure in a shale formation with different bedding plane directions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Progenitors and explosion properties of supernova remnants hosting central compact objects: II. A global systematic study with a comparison to nucleosynthesis models

ABSTRACT Core-collapse explosions of massive stars leave behind neutron stars, with a known diversity that includes the ‘Central Compact Objects’ (CCOs). Typified by the neutron star discovered near the centre of the Cas A supernova remnant (SNR), CCOs have been observed to shine only in X-rays. To address their supernova progenitors, we perform a systematic study of SNRs that contain a CCO and display X-ray emission from their shock-heated ejecta. We make use of X-ray data primarily using the Chandra X-ray observatory, complemented with XMM–Newton. This study uses a systematic approach to the analysis of each SNR aimed at addressing the supernova progenitor as well as the explosion properties (energy and ambient density). After fitting for the ejecta abundances estimated from a spatially resolved spectroscopic study, we compare the data to six nucleosynthesis models making predictions on supernova ejecta yields in core-collapse explosions. We find that the explosion models commonly used by the astrophysics community do not match the ejecta yields for any of the SNRs, suggesting additional physics, for example multidimensional explosion models or updated progenitor structures, are required. Overall we find low-mass (≤25 solar masses) progenitors among the massive stars population and low-energy explosions (<1051 ergs). We discuss degeneracies in our model fitting, particularly how altering the explosion energy affects the estimate of the progenitor mass. Our systematic study highlights the need for improving on the theoretical models for nucleosynthesis predictions as well as for sensitive, high-resolution spectroscopy observations to be acquired with next generation X-ray missions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗