Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “model updating”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15

Ultraviolet Radiation on the Surface of Mars

An evaluation of the ultraviolet (UV) flux incident on the Martian surface is important for a number of issues. UV-induced photolysis of water changes the chemistry of the soil and atmosphere, inducing its oxidizing nature. Alternatively, UV may directly affect surface chemistry by generating silicate defects. UV also rapidly degrades organic material delivered by meteoritic infall. Consequently, UV affects the overall chemistry of the Martian surface and atmosphere. The extent of UV breakdown of organic molecules is also relevant to concerns regarding contaminants on lander or rover surfaces that could interfere with life-detection experiments causing "false positives". The radiation flux at a point on the surface of Mars depends on factors such as cloud cover, atmospheric dust loading, season, local time, and latitude. Previously, the UV spectrum incident on the surface of Mars has been calculated from a simple radiative transfer model. Limitations of this earlier model include no accounting for the effect of dust, which may be a perennial constituent of the atmosphere, and also the use of gas absorption data measured at room temperature that overestimate absorption for lower Martian temperatures. We present an updated model for UV radiation (200-400 nm) that incorporates dust and more recent data for the solar spectrum, gas absorption, and UV surface albedo. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Catling, D. C.↗

Idaho Wildfires II: Assessing the Relationship Between Drought Indicators and Wildfire Risk to Enhance Hazard Modeling and Inform Mitigation Planning

The western United States has experienced twenty years of increased and prolonged drought which have exacerbated wildfire hazards. These jeopardize population centers through increased risks to ecosystem services, local economies, and livelihoods. The Idaho Office of Emergency Management, Water Resources, and Department of Lands are seeking methods to dynamically monitor these conditions and update models that inform hazard mitigation planning and resource allocation. Towards this, these agencies partnered with NASA DEVELOP to produce drought-enhanced wildfire hazard models. Part of a two-term project, the two teams revised the state’s static wildfire hazard model with refined data layers and remotely-sensed data to reflect dynamic ecosystem responses to drought conditions and wildfire potential. Our team distinguished between rangeland and forestland ecosystems, and investigated relationships between drought metrics and vegetation condition using TerrSet Earth Trends Modeler. This analysis determined that total precipitation at a 5-month lag interval (r 2 = 0.72) along with the Evaporative Stress Index (r 2 = 0.69); and precipitation at a 5-month interval (r 2 = 0.42) were important drivers in rangeland and forestland, respectively. These driver variables were incorporated into a temporally dynamic wildfire hazard map. Our team used linear regression to correlate hazard ratings with wildfire frequency. For the year 2020, neither the enhanced hazard model (p < 0.10, r 2 = 0.01) nor the state’s static model (p < 0.05, r 2 = 0.03) were strongly correlated with actual wildfire frequency as they expressed an inverse relationship between wildfire hazard and frequency. This suggests wildfire occurrence is complex and not necessarily driven by the variables used.

Wildfire↗

Optimization of a Remote Sensing Energy Balance Method over Different Canopy Applied at Global Scale

Parameterization methods which calculate turbulent heat and water fluxes with thermal remote sensing data were evaluated in the revised remote sensing surface energy balance system (SEBS) model (Chen et al., 2013). The model calculates sensible heat (H) based on the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) and determines latent heat (LE) as the residual of energy balance. We examined the uncertainties of H and LE in the SEBS model due to five key parameters at the local station point scale. Observations at 27 flux towers located in seven land cover types (needle-leaf forest, broad leaf forest, shrub, savanna, grassland, cropland, and sparsely vegetated land) and an artificial intelligence particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm was combined to calibrate the five parameters (leaf drag coefficient, leaf heat transfer coefficients, roughness length for soil, and two parameters for ground heat calculation) in the SEBS model. The root-mean-square error at the site scale was reduced by 9 W/sq.m for H, and 92 W/sq.m for LE, and their correlation coefficients were increased by 0.07 (H) and 0.11 (LE) after using the calibrated parameters. The updated model validation was further conducted globally for the remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) calculations. Overestimation of SEBS global ET was significantly improved by using the optimized values of the parameters. The results suggested PSO was able to consistently locate the global optimum of the SEBS model, and appears to be capable of solving the ET model optimization problem.

Chen, Xuelong↗

Quiet Spike Build-Up Ground Vibration Testing Approach

NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center uses a modified F-15B (836) aircraft as a testbed for a variety of flight research:experiments mounted underneath the aircraft fuselage. The F-15B was selected to fly Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation's (GAC)QuietSpike(TM)(QS) project; however, this experiment is very unique and unlike any of the previous testbed experiments flown on the F-15B. It involves the addition of a relatively long quiet spike boom attached to the radar bulkhead of the aircraft. This QS experiment is a stepping stone to airframe structural morphing technologies designed to mitigate sonic born strength of business jets over land. The QS boom is a concept in Which an aircraft's front-end would be extended prior to supersonic acceleration. This morphing would effectively lengthen the aircraft, reducing peak sonic boom amplitude, but is also expected to partition the otherwise strong bow shock into a series of reduced-strength, non-coalescing shocklets. Prior to flying the Quietspike(TM) experiment on the F-15B aircraft several ground vibration tests (GVT) were required in order to understand the QS modal characteristics and coupling effects with the F-15B. However, due to the project's late hardware delivery of the QS and the intense schedule, a "traditional" GVT of the mated F-1513 Quietspike(tm) ready-for-flight configuration would not have left sufficient time available for the finite element model update and flutter analyses before flight testing. Therefore, a "nontraditional" ground vibration testing approach was taken. The objective of the QuietSpike (TM) build-up ground testing approach was to ultimately obtain confidence in the F-15B Quietspike(TM) finite element model (FEM) to be used for the flutter analysis. In order to obtain the F15B QS FEM with reliable foundation stiffness between the QS and the F-15B radar bulkhead as well as QS modal characteristics, several different GVT configurations were performed. EAch of the four GVT's performed had a specific objective. The overall intent was to provide adequate data which would replicate a "traditional" F-15B QS GVT with actual ready-for-flight hardware. NASA Dryden was tasked with the conduct of the 1st, 2nd and 4th GVT and the 3rd GVT was GAC's responsibility. In order for this build-up GVT approach to be feasible, it was absolutely critical that each GVT configuration matched as closely as possible the connection interface configuration between the and aircraft bulkhead.

Spivey, Natalie D.↗

An inverse problem approach for structural damage detection - Finite element model refinement

In this work, a methodology for incorporating measured modal data into an existing refined finite element model is examined with the objective of detecting and locating structural damage. This same algorithm is also useful in terms of finite element model refinement. The algorithm is based on the partial inverse problem, in that only partial spectral information is required. The technique utilizes a symmetric eigenstructure assignment algorithm to perform the partial spectral assignment. Algorithms to enhance mode shape assignability and to preserve sparsity in the updated model are developed. The sparsity preservation is of particular importance when considering damage detection in truss-like structures. Several examples are presented which highlight the key points made within the paper.

Zimmerman, D. C.↗

Fuel Performance Evaluation of THOR-C Experiments

The Temperature Heatsink Overpower Response Commissioning (THOR-C) and THOR-Metal (THOR-M) experiments will be performed as part of an ongoing project for testing sodium fast reactor fuels with the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA). The THOR-C experiments consist of fresh metallic fuel pins and have been analyzed using the ABAQUS, Ansys codes and the BISON fuel performance code. THOR-M-Loss of Flow-1 (THOR-M-LOF-1) is designed to test an EBR-II irradiated fuel pin under LOF conditions. Simulation of the THOR-MLOF-1 experiment required first simulating the base irradiation of the fuel pin in EBR-II. MFUEL module of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 [1] is a physics-based metallic fuel performance model applicable to the normal operation, transient scenarios and fuel failure modeling including scenarios with bulk fuel melting. The model has been validated using EBR-II normal operation, separate effect transient tests as well as TREAT M-Series transient tests [2]. In this study, MFUEL models has been utilized together with a new capsule heat transfer model developed in this project. The new heat transfer model was necessary due to (1) significant amount of heat losses that required 2D heat transfer, (2) the presence of a titanium heat sink, rejecting a significant amount of heat, and (3) stagnant coolant conditions, which are inconsistent with SAS4A/SASSYS-1 (SAS) heat transfer model. Updates to SAS4A/SASSYS-1 and MFUEL has been described below, followed by a preliminary validation effort using the results from THOR-C-2 fresh fuel capsule experiment. A previous study for THOR-C-2 analysis using BISON code is also utilized in this study to model this test [3]. [1] D. O’Grady, A. J. Brunett, L. Ibarra, A. Karahan, T. Kim, T. S. Sumner, R. Thomas, T. H. Fanning, “The SAS4A/SASSYS-2 Version 5.7 Safety Analysis Code System,” Argonne National Laboratory,ANL/NSE-SAS/5.7, (2023). [2] A. Karahan, T. Kim, T. Fanning, D. O’Grady, “Validation of MFUEL Metal Fuel Performance Models of SAS4A/SASSYS-1,” Argonne National Laboratory, ANL/NSE-23/11, (2023). [3] M. Mihelish, A. Zabriskie, K. Paaren, P. Medvedev, C. Jensen, “Fuel Performance Predictions for the TREAT THOR-C Experiments,” Idaho National Laboratory, INL/RPT-23-73397, Revision 0, (2023)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

National Cost-Effectiveness of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1–2019

The purpose of this analysis is to examine the cost-effectiveness of the 2019 edition of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1, which is developed by the ASHRAE Standard Standing Project Committee (SSPC) 90.1, and is the model energy standard for all commercial buildings and multifamily residential buildings over three floors. PNNL analyzed the cost-effectiveness of changes in Standard 90.1-2019, compared to the previous 90.1-2016 edition, as applied in commercial buildings across the United States. In reviewing proposed changes to Standard 90.1, the SSPC considers the cost-effectiveness of individual changes (addenda). Due to the continuous nature of the development process, however, ASHRAE does not evaluate the entire package of addenda from one edition of the standard to the next, which is of particular interest to adopting state and local governments. Providing states with an analysis of cost-effectiveness facilitates a more comprehensive understanding of the impacts associated with updated model energy codes, informs the state decision-making process and its authorities, and ultimately encourages greater adoption of updated of energy codes. This information also informs the development of future editions of Standard 90.1.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

National Cost-Effectiveness of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1-2022

The purpose of this analysis is to examine the cost-effectiveness of the 2022 edition of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1, which is developed by the ASHRAE Standard Standing Project Committee (SSPC) 90.1 and is the model energy standard for all commercial buildings and multifamily residential buildings over three floors. PNNL analyzed the cost-effectiveness of changes in Standard 90.1-2022, compared to the previous 90.1-2019 edition, as applied in commercial buildings across the United States. In reviewing proposed changes to Standard 90.1, the SSPC considers the cost-effectiveness of individual changes (addenda). Due to the continuous nature of the development process, however, ASHRAE does not evaluate the entire package of addenda from one edition of the standard to the next, which is of particular interest to adopting state and local governments. Providing states with an analysis of cost-effectiveness facilitates a more comprehensive understanding of the impacts associated with updated model energy codes, informs the state decision-making process and its authorities, and ultimately encourages greater adoption of updated energy codes. This information also informs the development of future editions of Standard 90.1.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Digital image correlation and infrared thermography data for seven unique geometries of 304L stainless steel

Material Testing 2.0 (MT2.0) is a paradigm that advocates for the use of rich, full-field data, such as from digital image correlation and infrared thermography, for material identification. By employing heterogeneous, multi-axial data in conjunction with sophisticated inverse calibration techniques such as finite element model updating and the virtual fields method, MT2.0 aims to reduce the number of specimens needed for material identification and to increase confidence in the calibration results. To support continued development, improvement, and validation of such inverse methods—specifically for rate-dependent, temperature-dependent, and anisotropic metal plasticity models—we provide here a thorough experimental data set for 304L stainless steel sheet metal. The data set includes full-field displacement, strain, and temperature data for seven unique specimen geometries tested at different strain rates and in different material orientations. Commensurate extensometer strain data from tensile dog bones is provided as well for comparison. We believe this complete data set will be a valuable contribution to the experimental and computational mechanics communities, supporting continued advances in material identification methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Modeling and Simulation of Phased Array Antennas to Support Next-Generation Satellite Design

Developing enhanced simulation capabilities has become a significant priority for the Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) project at NASA as new space communications technologies are proposed to replace aging NASA communications assets, such as the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS). When developing the architecture for these new space communications assets, it is important to develop updated modeling and simulation methodologies, such that competing architectures can be weighed against one another and the optimal path forward can be determined. There have been many simulation tools developed here at NASA for the simulation of single RF link budgets, or for the modeling and simulation of an entire network of spacecraft and their supporting SCaN network elements. However, the modeling capabilities are never fully complete and as new technologies are proposed, gaps are identified. One such gap is the ability to rapidly develop high fidelity simulation models of electronically steerable phased array systems. As future relay satellite architectures are proposed that include optical communications links, electronically steerable antennas will become more desirable due to the reduction in platform vibration introduced by mechanically steerable devices. In this research, we investigate how modeling of these antennas can be introduced into out overall simulation and modeling structure. The ultimate goal of this research is two-fold. First, to enable NASA engineers to model various proposed simulation architectures and determine which proposed architecture meets the given architectural requirements. Second, given a set of communications link requirements for a proposed satellite architecture, determine the optimal configuration for a phased array antenna. There is a variety of tools available that can be used to model phased array antennas. To meet our stated goals, the first objective of this research is to compare the subset of tools available to us, trading-off modeling fidelity of the tool with simulation performance. When comparing several proposed architectures, higher- fidelity modeling may be desirable, however, when iterating a proposed set of communication link requirements across ranges of phased array configuration parameters, the practicality of performance becomes a significant requirement. In either case, a minimum simulation - fidelity must be met, regardless of performance considerations, which will be discussed in this research. Given a suitable set of phased array modeling tools, this research then focuses on integration with current SCaN modeling and simulation tools. While properly modeling the antenna elements of a system are vital, this is only a small part of the end-to-end communication path between a satellite and the supporting ground station and/or relay satellite assets. To properly model a proposed simulation architecture, this toolset must be integrated with other commercial and government development tools, such that the overall architecture can be examined in terms of communications, reliability, and cost. In this research, integration with previously developed communication tools is investigated.

Phased Array↗

Radiation model predictions and validation using LDEF data

Radiation dosimetry aboard LDEF, as well as post-flight measurements of the radioactivity induced in numerous LDEF spacecraft components, provide unique data for evaluating the accuracy of current models for predicting both the space radiation environments (trapped proton intensity, spectra, and directionality; cosmic ray fluence) and the radiation environments induced in spacecraft components (fluence, energy spectra, secondary particle, linear energy transfer, etc.). By determining the accuracy of such models using LDEF data, and with model updates where required, improved radiation environment predictions can be made for future missions, which in turn allows improved predictions for specific radiation effects for future spacecraft components (single event upsets of microelectronics, radiation damage to focal plane arrays, noise in sensitive instrumentation, etc.). Herein, the status and results from radiation model predictions and comparisons with LDEF data is given. The calculations are made using radiation transport codes coupled with a 3-D geometry/mass model of LDEF, together with current models of the space radiation environment.

Armstrong, T. W.↗

Considering coasts: Adapting terrestrial models to characterize coastal wetland ecosystems

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) simulates fully coupled processes and interactions among water, energy, carbon and nutrient cycles. E3SM connects vegetation and soil dynamics through nutrient uptake, plant production, litterfall and decomposition as a function of abiotic parameters (e.g. temperature and moisture). However, E3SM is designed to characterize terrestrial ecosystems and connects land and open ocean systems using a single streamflow transport term, ignoring the complex dynamics of energy, water, carbon, and nutrients in coastal systems. The goals of our project were to: (1) Parameterize a point version of E3SM to capture coastal wetland habitats and (2) Determine marsh community responses to increased temperature and elevated CO 2 . We adapted a version of the E3SM land model, previously configured to represent forested bog hydrology to a coastal ecosystem using datasets from field experiments conducted at the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center's Global Change Research Wetland (GCReW). Tidal forcing in a marsh environment was simulated using a two-column system in which the columns are connected by lateral hydrologic flows. One column simulates interactions between vegetation and soil while a second column simulates variation in water level (both tidal and sea level rise). The updated model captures many aspects of the field experiments, showing that plant community responses to environmental change are non-linear, non-additive and different between plant types. Elevated CO 2 treatments increased C 3 plant biomass more than C 4 (33% vs 17%). Temperature exacerbated CO 2 responses in C 3 plants (0 °C: 26%, 5.1 °C: 56%). We were more successful at characterizing C 3 than C 4 responses and simulating above rather than belowground biomass production. Furthermore, the next steps will include updates to key physiological parameters such as root:shoot carbon allocation and the addition of mechanistic feedbacks between vegetation and biogeochemical processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Penalized ensemble Kalman filters for high dimensional non-linear systems

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a data assimilation technique that uses an ensemble of models, updated with data, to track the time evolution of a usually non-linear system. It does so by using an empirical approximation to the well-known Kalman filter. However, its performance can suffer when the ensemble size is smaller than the state space, as is often necessary for computationally burdensome models. This scenario means that the empirical estimate of the state covariance is not full rank and possibly quite noisy. To solve this problem in this high dimensional regime, we propose a computationally fast and easy to implement algorithm called the penalized ensemble Kalman filter (PEnKF). Under certain conditions, it can be theoretically proven that the PEnKF will be accurate (the estimation error will converge to zero) despite having fewer ensemble members than state dimensions. Further, as contrasted to localization methods, the proposed approach learns the covariance structure associated with the dynamical system. These theoretical results are supported with simulations of several non-linear and high dimensional systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

AGGREGATE: dAta-driven modelinG preservinG contRollable dEr for outaGe mAnagemenT and rEsiliency (Report for Task 13: Functional Specification Report(Deliverable D9))

This report provides functional specification for the AGGREGATE project and associated modules/ tools being developed for outage management and restoration with the Distributed Energy Resources (DERs). This report also provide initial validation of the developed modules and performance metrics. The AGGREGATE team at this stage has been collaborating with General Electric (GE) and Seattle City Light (SCL) to move forward from offline validation to online validation using commercial advanced distribution management system (ADMS). Hence, the functional specifications documents, which outline the requirement of various modules, is provided to address the integration of the modules, including 1) real-time model update and aggregation tools module, 2) observability and controllability metric module, 3) fault location solution service restoration module, 4) transmission-distribution co-simulation module, and 5) advanced distribution management system module. integration of different AGGREGATE modules and functional specification provides the foundation for online multi-scenario testing using SCL system model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A comparative analysis of numerical approaches for the description of gas flow in clay-based repository systems: From a laboratory to a large-scale gas injection test

There is nowadays a consensus among many countries that geological disposal is a favourable solution for the long-term management. Although different host formations and different barrier systems are under consideration around the world, clay-based materials form an important component for waste isolation in most national programmes. Hence, a good comprehension of the effect of gas flow on the hydro-mechanical behaviour of clay-based soils is essential, both at laboratory and field scale. Task B under the international cooperative project DECOVALEX-2023 has recently shown that, after some enhancement, models can be employed to reproduce laboratory scale tests, even with different sample geometries 37 . However, further work is required to understand whether they can be applied to simulate a large-scale experiment. Up-scaling of models for the advective transport of gas through clay-based low permeable material presents a number of problems related to the difficulty in obtaining consistent hydrogeological parameters and constitutive relationships at both laboratory and field scale. Based on a unique dataset from a large-scale gas injection test (Lasgit) performed at the Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory (Sweden), Task B within DECOVALEX-2023 has explored the refinement of these numerical strategies applied to the simulation of gas flow. Work performed within the task reveals that codes do not need to be substantially modified from the laboratory models to reproduce full-scale tests: indeed, model parameters calibrated and validated at laboratory scale have been applied to predict field scale gas flow at Lasgit, including peak gas pressure and injected cumulative gas volume. By means of (1) the introduction of interfaces between blocks to reflect the experimental configuration and the (2) adjustment of some parameters (e.g., higher permeability), the updated models are able to represent most of the key features observed in the experimental data, even at a large scale.

Tamayo-Mas, E↗

United Kingdom Infrared Telescope's Spectrograph Observations of Human-Made Space Objects

Presented here are the results of the United Kingdom Infrared Telescope (UKIRT) spectral observations of human-made space objects taken from 2014 to 2015. The data collected using the UKIRT 1-5 micron Imager Spectrometer (UIST) cover the wavelength range 0.7-2.5 micrometers. Overall, data were collected on 18 different orbiting objects at or near geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Two of the objects are controlled spacecraft, twelve are non-controlled spacecraft, one is a rocket body, and three are cataloged as debris. The remotely collected data are compared to the laboratory-collected reflectance data on typical spacecraft materials; thereby general materials are identified but not specific types. These results highlight the usefulness of observations in the infrared by focusing on features from hydrocarbons and silicon. The spacecraft, both the controlled and non-controlled, show distinct features due to the presence of solar panels whereas the rocket bodies do not. Signature variations between rocket bodies, due to the presence of various metals and paints on their surfaces, show a clear distinction from those objects with solar panels, demonstrating that one can distinguish most spacecraft from rocket bodies through infrared spectrum analysis. Finally, the debris pieces tend to show featureless, dark spectra. These results show that the laboratory data in its current state give well-correlated indications as to the nature of the surface materials on the objects. Further telescopic data collection and model updates to include noise, surface roughness, and material degradation are necessary to make better assessments of orbital object material types. A comparison conducted between objects observed previously with the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) shows similar materials and trends from the two telescopes and different times. However, based on the current state of the model, infrared spectroscopic data are adequate to classify objects in GEO as spacecraft, rocket bodies, or debris.

Buckalew, Brent↗

Quiet Spike(TradeMark) Build-up Ground Vibration Testing Approach

Flight tests of Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation s Quiet Spike(TradeMark) hardware were recently completed on the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center F-15B airplane. NASA Dryden uses a modified F-15B airplane as a testbed aircraft to cost-effectively fly flight research experiments that are typically mounted underneath the F-15B airplane, along the fuselage centerline. For the Quiet Spike(TradeMark) experiment, however, instead of a centerline mounting, a relatively long forward-pointing boom was attached to the radar bulkhead of the F-15B airplane. The Quiet Spike(TradeMark) experiment is a stepping-stone to airframe structural morphing technologies designed to mitigate the sonic-boom strength of business jets over land. The Quiet Spike(TradeMark) boom is a concept in which an aircraft s noseboom would be extended prior to supersonic acceleration. This morphing effectively lengthens the aircraft, thus reducing the peak sonic-boom amplitude, but is also expected to partition the otherwise strong bow shock into a series of reduced-strength, noncoalescing shocklets. Prior to flying the Quiet Spike(TradeMark) experiment on the F-15B airplane several ground vibration tests were required to understand the Quiet Spike(TradeMark) modal characteristics and coupling effects with the F-15B airplane. However, due to the flight hardware availability and compressed schedule requirements, a "traditional" ground vibration test of the mated F-15B Quiet Spike(TradeMark) ready-for- flight configuration did not leave sufficient time available for the finite element model update and flutter analyses before flight testing. Therefore, a "nontraditional" ground vibration testing approach was taken. This paper provides an overview of each phase of the "nontraditional" ground vibration testing completed for the Quiet Spike(TradeMark) project which includes the test setup details, instrumentation layout, and modal results obtained in support of the structural dynamic modeling and flutter analyses.

Spivey, Natalie D.↗

Evolving Multi-hazard Machine Learning Modeling for Advanced Risk-Informed Infrastructure Resilience Assessment

The socioeconomic impacts of pipeline incidents have escalated over the past three decades, revealing the limitation of traditional risk modeling methods when applied to extensive pipeline networks. This research aims to develop machine learning (ML) models that effectively identify, rank, and predict the diverse hazards and socioeconomic consequences associated with pipeline incidents. Utilizing historical data on pipeline incidents alongside weather and oceanographic data from the 1980s onward, the Houston metropolitan area serves as a testbed for the proposed methodologies. The research segments the combined datasets into three consecutive periods, demonstrating the efficacy of the updated model in predicting future events, particularly concerning precipitation rate data. Despite the challenges posed by a relatively limited dataset, local-level ML modeling offers valuable insights into the spatial and temporal dynamics of multiple hazards that contribute to pipeline incidents. These findings hold significant implications for future research, particularly in understanding and mitigating risks in various locations across the Gulf Coast and other coastal regions.

42 ENGINEERING↗