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At least 271 records · Page 15

Cyote-attack Chain Estimator

Attack Chain Estimator (ACE) Application Overview The Attack Chain Estimator (ACE) Application is a sophisticated tool designed for the ingestion, classification, sequencing, and enrichment of cybersecurity threat reports. This application leverages advanced machine learning models and extensive historical data to provide comprehensive insights into cyber threats, specifically targeting Industrial Control Systems (ICS). Purpose The primary functions of the ACE Application include: Ingestion of Cybersecurity Threat Reporting: Capable of ingesting text-based threat reports in markdown or text file format. Supports ingestion of structured data from other sources in STIX/JSON format. Classification of Report’s Text-Based Events: Utilizes a DeBERTa classifier, specifically trained on cybersecurity data, to map the events to MITRE ATT&CK for ICS Tactics and Techniques. Classification is performed using multiple Jupyter notebooks and machine learning workflows hosted as FastAPI microservices: regex_data deberta_base_35_train_hft_classifier_mlflow.ipynb hft_regex_classifier_mlflow.ipynb param_train_hft_classifier_mlflow.ipynb regex_tactic_tech.ipynb Ordering of Tactics, Techniques, and Observable Events: Sequences the identified tactics, techniques, and events to form a coherent attack chain. Enrichment with Historical Attack Chain Details: Enhances the attack chain with details from historical attacks using a Markov model developed from CyOTE Precursor Analysis Report data. The Markov model is available as a FastAPI endpoint for seamless integration. Enrichment with Adversary Emulation Capabilities Data: Integrates adversary emulation capabilities data using MITRE Caldera for OT adversary abilities UUIDs. Export of Output Files: Provides options to export the enriched attack chain in JSON or CSV formats. Routing of Output to Other Applications: Facilitates routing of output to various platforms and applications, including: Threat Intelligence Platforms COREII Scout for Threat Intelligence Analysis COREII Modeling and Simulation for Adversary Emulation Technical Description The ACE Application is an advanced cybersecurity tool designed to provide detailed threat analysis and sequence generation. It is built on a robust architecture that integrates natural language processing, machine learning, and historical data modeling. Key Components: Data Ingestion Module: Handles the input of threat reports and data from various formats, ensuring flexibility in data sources. Classification Engine: Employs DeBERTa-based classifiers hosted as FastAPI microservices to analyze and classify threat report events in accordance with the MITRE ATT&CK framework for ICS. Sequence Generator: Orders the classified events into a logical attack chain, providing clear insight into the sequence of tactics and techniques used in the threat. Enrichment Engine: Integrates historical data and adversary emulation capabilities to enhance the attack chain with valuable context and additional details. The historical data enrichment is powered by a Markov model, which is available as a FastAPI endpoint. Export and Routing Module: Facilitates the export of the enriched attack chain in multiple formats and routes the output to designated applications for further analysis or emulation.

Paul, Tony [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idaho↗

Enabling Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Physical Security Using EMRALD and MAAP

The optimization of physical security in nuclear power plants requires sophisticated methodologies that integrate operator actions and plant behavior through advanced simulation tools. To address this, Idaho National Laboratory [JL2.1]has developed the Modeling and Analysis for Safety and Security using the Dynamic EMRALD Framework (MASS-DEF) methodology, an approach that integrates force-on-force simulations, dynamic probabilistic risk assessment, and thermal-hydraulics modeling [JL3.1]to enhance security planning while reducing costs. We developed a tool that produces reduced order models using thermal hydraulic simulations from the Modular Accident Analysis Program (MAAP) [1]. These models can quickly evaluate reactor core behavior during attack simulations, and in so doing, address two barriers of traditional methods: (1) MAAP simulations are computationally intensive, and (2) attack scenarios must be run in a secure environment, which complicates analysis and validation. By precomputing scenario outcomes for a small number of modified parameters, the reduced order model significantly decreases the computational cost and enables offsite review of the results.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Interactions Between Climate Policy and Technology-influenced Travel Behavior: Mitigating Induced Demand from CACC

Advances in vehicle technology have influenced the development of automated vehicle systems, where vehicles that do not require human intervention are already deployed in the roadway networks. While these advances are proved to increase roadway safety and highway capacity, more research is needed to understand the long-term and regional-level impacts on mobility, land use, energy consumption, and emissions. This study proposes a multi-model approach to analyze the effect of vehicle automation and deep decarbonization policies over a period from 2020 to 2040 in Austin, Texas. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to develop internally the scenarios that are then passed to the SMART Mobility modeling workflow, a large-scale simulation framework combining the POLARIS activity-based travel demand model and mesoscopic traffic simulator with the Autonomie vehicle energy consumption model and the UrbanSim land use simulator. Results suggest that the introduction of vehicles with advanced automation could increase fuel consumption when no decarbonization policies are implemented. Also, advances in vehicle technology research and development could lead to a decline in energy use in the long-term. Energy pricing and vehicle electrification incentives could help reduce the impact of vehicle automation. Finally, our analysis indicates the relevance of introducing land use processes in longterm vehicle automation studies.

land use↗

A New Impedance-Based Modeling and Stability Analysis Approach for Power Oscillations Between Grid-Forming Inverters

This paper presents a new modeling and analysis approach to address the small-signal stability issues among interconnected grid-forming (GFM) inverters. A novel phasor domain “power impedance” model is developed to capture the terminal characteristics of GFM inverters. Based on the developed models, a sum-type impedance stability criterion is proposed to analyze the power oscillations between GFM Inverters. The developed models are validated with EMT simulations and the stability analysis results using the proposed stability criterion can match both EMT simulations and eigenvalue analysis. In addition, the application of the developed model can be extended to the stability analysis of large-scale power system with high penetration of GFM inverters.

Liu, Hanchao↗

Redox flow cell development and demonstration project, calendar year 1976

The major focus of the effort was the key technology issues that directly influence the fundamental feasibility of the overall redox concept. These issues were the development of a suitable semipermeable separator membrane for the system, the screening and study of candidate redox couples to achieve optimum cell performance, and the carrying out of systems analysis and modeling to develop system performance goals and cost estimates.

Source record↗

Redox flow cell development and demonstration project, calendar year 1977

Research and development on the redox flow cell conducted from January 1, 1977, to December 31, 1977, are described in this report. The major focus of the effort during 1977 was the key technology issues that directly influence the fundamental feasibility of the overall redox concept. These issues were the development of a suitable ion exchange membrane for the system, the screening and study of candidate redox couples to achieve optimum cell performance, and the carrying out of systems analysis and modeling to develop system performance goals and cost estimates.

Source record↗

Comparison of composite rotor blade models: A coupled-beam analysis and an MSC/NASTRAN finite-element model

A methodology was developed for the structural analysis of composite rotor blades. This coupled-beam analysis is relatively simple to use compared with alternative analysis techniques. The beam analysis was developed for thin-wall single-cell rotor structures and includes the effects of elastic coupling. This paper demonstrates the effectiveness of the new composite-beam analysis method through comparison of its results with those of an established baseline analysis technique. The baseline analysis is an MSC/NASTRAN finite-element model built up from anisotropic shell elements. Deformations are compared for three linear static load cases of centrifugal force at design rotor speed, applied torque, and lift for an ideal rotor in hover. A D-spar designed to twist under axial loading is the subject of the analysis. Results indicate the coupled-beam analysis is well within engineering accuracy.

Hodges, Robert V.↗

Implementation of a realistic artificial data generator for crash data generation

In this paper, a framework is outlined to generate realistic artificial data (RAD) as a tool for comparing different models developed for safety analysis. The primary focus of transportation safety analysis is on identifying and quantifying the influence of factors contributing to traffic crash occurrence and its consequences. The current framework of comparing model structures using only observed data has limitations. With observed data, it is not possible to know how well the models mimic the true relationship between the dependent and independent variables. Further, real datasets do not allow researchers to evaluate the model performance for different levels of complexity of the dataset. RAD offers an innovative framework to address these limitations. Hence, we propose a RAD generation framework embedded with heterogeneous causal structures that generates crash data by considering crash occurrence as a trip level event impacted by trip level factors, demographics, roadway and vehicle attributes. Within our RAD generator we employ three specific modules: (a) disaggregate trip information generation, (b) crash data generation and (c) crash data aggregation. For disaggregate trip information generation, we employ a daily activity-travel realization for an urban region generated from an established activity-based model for the Chicago region. We use this data of more than 2 million daily trips to generate a subset of trips with crash data. For trips with crashes crash location, crash type, driver/vehicle characteristics, and crash severity. The daily RAD generation process is repeated for generating crash records at yearly or multi-year resolution. In conclusion, the crash databases generated can be employed to compare frequency models, severity models, crash type and various other dimensions by facility type - possibly establishing a universal benchmarking system for alternative model frameworks in safety literature.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Tool-workpiece stick-slip conditions and their effects on torque and heat generation rate in the friction stir welding

Friction stir welding (FSW) has found increased applications in automotive and aerospace industries due to its advantages of solid-state bonding, no fusion and melting, and versatility in various working conditions and material combinations. However, the relationship among processing parameters, material properties, and bonding extent and fidelity remains largely empirical, primarily because of the lack of the mechanistic understanding of the tool-workpiece frictional behavior that affects our subsequent understanding of microstructural evolution and interface bonding formation. While the tool-workpiece stick-slip condition is believed to dictate the resulting torque and heat generation rate during the welding process, it remains rare and elusive to conduct a quantitative experimental measurement of such interfacial field. On the other hand, numerical simulations based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) rely on ad hoc assumptions of interfacial pressure and shear-stress conditions, but predictions can only be validated via the medium- and far-range temperature field which is known to be insensitive to the interfacial frictional behavior. This work first presents a comparison among two CFD-based simulation methodologies and the Coupled Eulerian Lagrangian (CEL) model in finite element method, the last of which uses the Coulomb friction so that the stick-slip is naturally developed. Based on the Hill-Bower similarity relationship in the contact analysis, an analytical model is developed here to prove why a constant stick-slip fraction will be developed in the steady state, to correlate the stick-slip fraction to processing parameters such as the tool spin rate, and further to derive dimensionless functions for torque and heat-generation-rate predictions. Pros and cons of various numerical approaches in predicting stick-slip are discussed, and our analytical model has been found to agree well with our numerical simulation and literature experimental results. These analyses provide the critical strain-rate and temperature fields that are needed for the bonding analysis in our future work.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Multi-Model and Multi-Scale Global Sensitivity Analysis for Identifying Controlling Processes of Complex Systems

An environmental model consists of multiple process level sub-models, and each sub-model represents a process that is key to the operation of the simulated system. Global sensitivity analysis methods have been widely used to identify important processes for system model development and improvement. The existing methods of global sensitivity analysis only consider parametric uncertainty, and are not capable of handling model uncertainty caused by multiple process models that arise from competing hypotheses about one or more processes. To address this problem, this project develops a new method to probe model output sensitivity to competing process models by integrating model averaging methods with variance-based global sensitivity analysis to address uncertainty in process models and parameters. The new method yields three process sensitivity indices. The first one is called first-order process sensitivity index, and it is derived as a single summary measure of relative process importance. Evaluating the index is computationally expensive, because it relies in a Monte Carlo scheme that requires thousands and even millions of model executions. To reduce computational cost, this project develops a computationally efficient, quasi Monte Carlo method, and this method is presented in Chapter 2 of this report with and a numerical example for demonstration. The numerical example shows that the results of the quasi Monte Carlo method are substantially close to those of the full Monte Carlo method, but the computational cost of the quasi Monte Carlo method is only 0.7% of that of the full Monte Carlo method. The second index is called total-effect process sensitivity index, and it measures interactions between different processes. Therefore, this sensitivity index includes the first-order process sensitivity index, and can be used to identify influential processes. On the other hand, the total-effect process sensitivity index can also be used to screen non-influential processes. This is demonstrated by two numerical examples using the Sobol-G* functions and groundwater flow models that consider recharge process, geological process, and snowmelt process. The numerical examples shows that the total-effect process sensitivity index is more informative than the first-order process sensitivity. The derivation of the process sensitivity index and the numerical examples are discussed in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 presents two computationally efficient methods for screening non-influential processes to exclude them from further investigation. The two methods are the multi-model difference-based sensitivity (MMDS) analysis method, which can be implemented using the Latin Hypercube Sampling. The second one is the implementation of MMDS method using a binning method. The numerical example for the Sobol-G* function indicates the two methods are capable of identifying non-influential models, and the numerical examples for the groundwater flow and reactive transport show that the two methods are effective for groundwater problems. However, it should be noted that the two methods are numerical approximations, and they can only be used for screening non-influential processes, not for ranking importance of system processes. All the sensitivity analysis methods are implemented by developing python codes, and the codes are in a software called SAMMPY: a python package for process sensitivity analysis under multiple models. The SAMMPY design and structure are discussed in Chapter 5, and the package is released to the public for free download.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhancements to the SSME transfer function modeling code

This report details the results of a one year effort by Ohio University to apply the transfer function modeling and analysis tools developed under NASA Grant NAG8-167 (Irwin, 1992), (Bartholomew, 1992) to attempt the generation of Space Shuttle Main Engine High Pressure Turbopump transfer functions from time domain data. In addition, new enhancements to the transfer function modeling codes which enhance the code functionality are presented, along with some ideas for improved modeling methods and future work. Section 2 contains a review of the analytical background used to generate transfer functions with the SSME transfer function modeling software. Section 2.1 presents the 'ratio method' developed for obtaining models of systems that are subject to single unmeasured excitation sources and have two or more measured output signals. Since most of the models developed during the investigation use the Eigensystem Realization Algorithm (ERA) for model generation, Section 2.2 presents an introduction of ERA, and Section 2.3 describes how it can be used to model spectral quantities. Section 2.4 details the Residue Identification Algorithm (RID) including the use of Constrained Least Squares (CLS) and Total Least Squares (TLS). Most of this information can be found in the report (and is repeated for convenience). Section 3 chronicles the effort of applying the SSME transfer function modeling codes to the a51p394.dat and a51p1294.dat time data files to generate transfer functions from the unmeasured input to the 129.4 degree sensor output. Included are transfer function modeling attempts using five methods. The first method is a direct application of the SSME codes to the data files and the second method uses the underlying trends in the spectral density estimates to form transfer function models with less clustering of poles and zeros than the models obtained by the direct method. In the third approach, the time data is low pass filtered prior to the modeling process in an effort to filter out high frequency characteristics. The fourth method removes the presumed system excitation and its harmonics in order to investigate the effects of the excitation on the modeling process. The fifth method is an attempt to apply constrained RID to obtain better transfer functions through more accurate modeling over certain frequency ranges. Section 4 presents some new C main files which were created to round out the functionality of the existing SSME transfer function modeling code. It is now possible to go from time data to transfer function models using only the C codes; it is not necessary to rely on external software. The new C main files and instructions for their use are included. Section 5 presents current and future enhancements to the XPLOT graphics program which was delivered with the initial software. Several new features which have been added to the program are detailed in the first part of this section. The remainder of Section 5 then lists some possible features which may be added in the future. Section 6 contains the conclusion section of this report. Section 6.1 is an overview of the work including a summary and observations relating to finding transfer functions with the SSME code. Section 6.2 contains information relating to future work on the project.

Irwin, R. Dennis↗

Techno-economic analysis of carbon dioxide capture from low concentration sources using membranes

Rising carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) levels in the atmosphere lead to global warming, causing climate change. As such, carbon capture has become necessary to slow the increase and reduce CO 2 levels in the atmosphere. Point source emissions have a wide range of CO 2 concentrations, but emissions below 3% CO 2 have mostly been ignored because Carbon capture from these sources has been viewed as costly and economically unsustainable. Membrane technologies are considered the most viable solution by virtue of more energy-efficient operation. Our group at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has developed poly[bis((2-methoxyethoxy)ethoxy)phosphazene] (MEEP)-based carbon dioxide selective membranes with CO 2 /N 2 selectivity greater than 40 and CO 2 permeability greater than 450 Barrer. To understand the economics of carbon capture, a spreadsheet-based techno-economic analysis (TEA) model was developed to consider multiple parameters, including selectivity and permeability of the membranes, performance conditions such as the number of stages, module material, electricity price, membrane price, and capital financing. The cost of carbon capture in US $\$$/metric ton was calculated at various purities and compared with other membrane processes, cryogenic capture, solvent-based capture, and pressure swing adsorption-based capture. It was determined that a MEEP-based three-stage process had a capture cost of US $\$$ 50.1/metric ton for 99.8% purity CO 2 from a 1% CO 2 feed source in nitrogen (N 2 ). In conclusion, the capture cost using the best performing Pebax-based membrane was 464% higher, cryogenic capture was 60%–140% higher, pressure swing adsorption was 55%–165% higher, and chemical absorption was -10%–110% higher than MEEP-based membrane capture, respectively.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Solutions for Enhanced Legacy Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Methodologies: Improving Efficiency of Model Development and Processing via Innovative Human Reliability Dependency Analysis

Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) are integral to nuclear power plant (NPP) operations, having tremendously benefitted the safety of the U.S. reactor fleet for decades. Insights obtained from the models have provided perspectives on a variety of applications, both at the plant and for the regulator. While these models are very useful, they are now being asked to represent and analyze aspects of the plant that were never envisioned by the initial PRA practitioners. Furthermore, heightened demands on the PRA models have led to increased computing power requirements. Additionally, as the complexity of the PRA models increased, the difficulty experienced by non-PRA experts in trying to understand these models, grasp the insights they provide, and effectively use that information has become problematic. The need for research to address key issues regarding PRA tools and methods has never been greater. Although the nuclear power industry has largely been well-served by these tools and methods, the underlying science is dated, remaining mostly unchanged for over two decades. Three areas were identified as most beneficial to address to maintain and improve the usefulness of the current practice legacy PRA tools: improved quantification speed, increased ability to efficiently model multi-hazard models, and improved modeling human action dependency in PRA. This report is focused on the third critical area, improvements in dependency analysis of human actions conducted as part of a typical human reliability assessment.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Aircraft interior noise reduction by alternate resonance tuning

Model problem development and analysis continues with the Alternate Resonance Tuning concept. Various topics are presently at different stages of completion and are described. These topics included optimization of panel mass ratios, panel computer code verification and agreement with experimental data, and flexible frame modeling.

Gottwald, James A.↗

Considerations When Building Thermal Models that Require Conversion Between Formats

At times, it is inevitable to require conversion of thermal models from one software format to another. This most often occurs for missions with international partners where not all parties utilize the same software packages for thermal analysis. Mandating a single tool for all parties is one possible solution, but this approach can introduce problems if significant effort is required to overcome inexperience with the designated tool and may result in difficulty meeting analysis schedule requirements. Alternatively, allowing all parties to use their own familiar tools minimizes the impact to analysis schedules but does introduce the need to convert the models later to a common format for analysis at a higher level of assembly. External conversion tools and formats have been developed through the years to aid in this process, but have had limited success in fully converting models seamlessly. Having a basic familiarity with tool capabilities on both sides of the conversion process allows for models to be built in a manner to better facilitate conversion by avoiding features and capabilities which are unsupported by the destination tool or for which no workarounds exist. Also, the effort to convert a model is often neglected when developing the schedules for analysis at the higher assembly levels; delivery of models preconditioned for convertibility minimizes the schedule risk. This paper seeks to provide some guidance on modeling techniques to avoid when developing Geometrical Math Models (GMM) and Thermal Math Models (TMM) when conversion is required. The recommendations are based on GMM conversion experiences between TSS/ThermalDesktop/ESARAD and TMM conversions between SINDA-FLUINT/ESATAN.

Modeling↗

A distributed analysis and visualization system for model and observational data

Software was developed with NASA support to aid in the analysis and display of the massive amounts of data generated from satellites, observational field programs, and from model simulations. This software was developed in the context of the PATHFINDER (Probing ATmospHeric Flows in an Interactive and Distributed EnviRonment) Project. The overall aim of this project is to create a flexible, modular, and distributed environment for data handling, modeling simulations, data analysis, and visualization of atmospheric and fluid flows. Software completed with NASA support includes GEMPAK analysis, data handling, and display modules for which collaborators at NASA had primary responsibility, and prototype software modules for three-dimensional interactive and distributed control and display as well as data handling, for which NSCA was responsible. Overall process control was handled through a scientific and visualization application builder from Silicon Graphics known as the Iris Explorer. In addition, the GEMPAK related work (GEMVIS) was also ported to the Advanced Visualization System (AVS) application builder. Many modules were developed to enhance those already available in Iris Explorer including HDF file support, improved visualization and display, simple lattice math, and the handling of metadata through development of a new grid datatype. Complete source and runtime binaries along with on-line documentation is available via the World Wide Web at: http://redrock.ncsa.uiuc.edu/ PATHFINDER/pathre12/top/top.html.

Wilhelmson, Robert B.↗