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SMART Mobility. Mobility Decision Science Capstone Report

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Systems and Modeling for Accelerated Research in Transportation (SMART) Mobility Consortium is a multiyear, multi-laboratory collaborative, managed by the Energy Efficient Mobility Systems Program of the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicle Technologies Office, dedicated to further understanding the energy implications and opportunities of advanced mobility technologies and services. The first three-year research phase of SMART Mobility occurred from 2017 through 2019, and included five research pillars: Connected and Automated Vehicles, Mobility Decision Science, Multi-Modal Freight, Urban Science, and Advanced Fueling Infrastructure. A sixth research thrust integrated aspects of all five pillars to develop a SMART Mobility Modeling Workflow to evaluate new transportation technologies and services at scale. This report summarizes the work of the Mobility Decision Science Pillar. The Mobility Decision Science Pillar sought to fill gaps in existing knowledge about the human role in the mobility system including travel decision-making and technology adoption in the context of future mobility. The objective was to study how underlying preferences, needs, and contextual factors might constrain or hasten future transportation system scenarios. For information about the other Pillars and about the SMART Mobility Modeling Workflow, please refer to the relevant pillar’s Capstone Report.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

SMART Mobility. Modeling Workflow Development, Implementation, and Results Capstone Report

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Systems and Modeling for Accelerated Research in Transportation (SMART) Mobility Consortium is a multiyear, multi-laboratory collaborative, managed by the Energy Efficient Mobility Systems Program of the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicle Technologies Office, dedicated to further understanding the energy implications and opportunities of advanced mobility technologies and services. The first three-year research phase of SMART Mobility occurred from 2017 through 2019, and included five research pillars: Connected and Automated Vehicles, Mobility Decision Science, Multi-Modal Freight, Urban Science, and Advanced Fueling Infrastructure. A sixth research thrust integrated aspects of all five pillars to develop a SMART Mobility Modeling Workflow to evaluate new transportation technologies and services at scale. This report summarizes the work of the SMART Mobility Modeling Workflow effort. The SMART Mobility Modeling Workflow was developed to evaluate new transportation technologies such as connectivity, automation, sharing, and electrification through multi-level systems analysis that captures the dynamic interactions between technologies. By integrating multiple models across different levels of fidelity and scale, the Workflow yields insights about the influence of new mobility and vehicle technologies at the system level. For information about the other Pillars, please refer to the relevant pillar’s Capstone Report.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

SMART Mobility. Connected and Automated Vehicles Capstone Report

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Systems and Modeling for Accelerated Research in Transportation (SMART) Mobility Consortium is a multiyear, multi-laboratory collaborative, managed by the Energy Efficient Mobility Systems Program of the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicle Technologies Office, dedicated to further understanding the energy implications and opportunities of advanced mobility technologies and services. The first three-year research phase of SMART Mobility occurred from 2017 through 2019 and included five research pillars: Connected and Automated Vehicles, Mobility Decision Science, Multi-Modal Freight, Urban Science, and Advanced Fueling Infrastructure. A sixth research thrust integrated aspects of all five pillars to develop a SMART Mobility Modeling Workflow to evaluate new transportation technologies and services at scale. This report summarizes the work of the Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) Pillar. This Pillar investigated the energy, technology, and usage implications of vehicle connectivity and automation and identified efficient CAV solutions. For information about the other Pillars and about the SMART Mobility Modeling Workflow, please refer to the relevant Pillar’s Capstone Report.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Structure–Transport Relationships of Water–Organic Solvent Co-transport in Carbon Molecular Sieve (CMS) Membranes

We explore the effects of the carbon molecular sieve (CMS) microstructure on the separation performance and transport mechanism of water–organic mixtures. Specifically, we utilize PIM-1 dense films and integrally skinned asymmetric hollow fiber membranes as polymer precursors for the CMS materials. The PIM-1 membranes were pyrolyzed under several different pyrolysis atmospheres (argon, carbon dioxide, and diluted hydrogen gas) and at multiple pyrolysis temperatures. Detailed gas physisorption measurements reveal that membranes pyrolyzed under 4% H 2 and CO 2 had broadened ultramicropore distributions (pore diameter <7 Å) compared to Ar pyrolysis, and pyrolysis under CO 2 increased ultramicropore volume and broadened micropore distributions at increased pyrolysis temperatures. Gravimetric water and p-xylene sorption and diffusion measurements reveal that the PIM-1-derived CMS materials are more hydrophilic than other CMS materials that have been previously studied, which leads to sorption-diffusion estimations showing water-selective permeation. Water permeation in the vapor phase, pervaporation, and liquid-phase hydraulic permeation reveal that the isobaric permeation modes (vapor permeation and pervaporation) are reasonably well predicted by the sorption-diffusion model, whereas the hydraulic permeation mode is significantly underpredicted (>250×). Conversely, the permeation of p-xylene is well predicted by the sorption-diffusion model in all cases. The collection of pore size analysis, vapor sorption and diffusion, and permeation in different modalities creates a picture of a combined transport mechanism in which water–under high transmembrane pressures–permeates via a Poiseuille-style mechanism, whereas p-xylene solutes in the mixture permeate via sorption-diffusion.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Phase Segmentation in Atom-Probe Tomography Using Deep Learning-Based Edge Detection

Abstract Atom-probe tomography (APT) facilitates nano- and atomic-scale characterization and analysis of microstructural features. Specifically, APT is well suited to study the interfacial properties of granular or heterophase systems. Traditionally, the identification of the interface between, for precipitate and matrix phases, in APT data has been obtained either by extracting iso-concentration surfaces based on a user-supplied concentration value or by manually perturbing the concentration value until the iso-concentration surface qualitatively matches the interface. These approaches are subjective, not scalable, and may lead to inconsistencies due to local composition inhomogeneities. We introduce a digital image segmentation approach based on deep neural networks that transfer learned knowledge from natural images to automatically segment the data obtained from APT into different phases. This approach not only provides an efficient way to segment the data and extract interfacial properties but does so without the need for expensive interface labeling for training the segmentation model. We consider here a system with a precipitate phase in a matrix and with three different interface modalities—layered, isolated, and interconnected—that are obtained for different relative geometries of the precipitate phase. We demonstrate the accuracy of our segmentation approach through qualitative visualization of the interfaces, as well as through quantitative comparisons with proximity histograms obtained by using more traditional approaches.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Continuous Enzymatic Hydrolysis Development (CEHD) WBS 2.4.1.101

The Continuous Enzymatic Hydrolysis Development (CEHD) project aims to reduce the cost and commercialization scale-up risks of biorefinery sugar-lignin production through development of a deployable continuous enzymatic hydrolysis (CEH) process. Through the use of external cross flow membrane filtration loops coupled to enzymatic hydrolysis (EH) reactors, pretreated biomass solids and enzymes are retained for reaction while solubilized product sugars are removed in situ, with high extents of conversion achieved through a series of reactor-membrane unit stages. The CEHD project is focused on advancing CEH as a transformational, process-intensified, lower-cost method for producing soluble clarified biomass sugars and insoluble lignin-rich streams than traditional batch enzymatic hydrolysis (BEH). The project's primary objective is to reduce the cost of CEH to be compellingly lower than conventional BEH, 10% lower in year 1 and 20% lower in year 3 (end of project). A related objective is to expand CEH's operating envelope to increase process efficiency. Through more thorough de-risking and demonstration of CEH, in conjunction with building a suite of modeling and optimization tools that allow for more facile rigorous in silico evaluation of novel CEH designs and modalities, this project intends to elevate industry interest in adopting CEH as an improvement over conventional batch processing. This project was merit reviewed in FY20. It's now in its first year of a new 3-year plan spanning FY21-FY23.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Data-Driven Framework for Direct Local Tensile Property Prediction of Laser Powder Bed Fusion Parts

This article proposes a generalizable, data-driven framework for qualifying laser powder bed fusion additively manufactured parts using part-specific in situ data, including powder bed imaging, machine health sensors, and laser scan paths. To achieve part qualification without relying solely on statistical processes or feedstock control, a sequence of machine learning models was trained on 6299 tensile specimens to locally predict the tensile properties of stainless-steel parts based on fused multi-modal in situ sensor data and a priori information. A cyberphysical infrastructure enabled the robust spatial tracking of individual specimens, and computer vision techniques registered the ground truth tensile measurements to the in situ data. The co-registered 230 GB dataset used in this work has been publicly released and is available as a set of HDF5 files. The extensive training data requirements and wide range of size scales were addressed by combining deep learning, machine learning, and feature engineering algorithms in a relay. The trained models demonstrated a 61% error reduction in ultimate tensile strength predictions relative to estimates made without any in situ information. Lessons learned and potential improvements to the sensors and mechanical testing procedure are discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Development and Evaluation of Occupancy-Aware Model Predictive Control for Residential Building Energy Efficiency and Occupant Comfort

The residential sector accounts for 25% of global primary energy consumption. Two methods have previously been proposed to reduce residential energy use associated with the provision of occupant thermal comfort: 1. Occupancy-based HVAC control, operating systems only during confirmed occupancy, and 2. model predictive control (MPC), harnessing a mathematical model and forecasts to find optimal operating strategies. Previous studies estimate the average energy savings of the two methods individually in the range of 21% and 16%, respectively. The research presented herein was carried out to evaluate the energy savings potential in residential buildings by combining both approaches across different climates, house vintages, and occupancy patterns. Occupancy and eight different physical modalities (e.g. CO2 and VOC) data were collected from five homes for time periods of 4–9 weeks. Collected data sets were used to train occupancy prediction models suggested by an extensive literature survey of occupancy model types. The trained prediction models were combined with MPC and detailed EnergyPlus building simulation models to evaluate residential building performance in terms of annual energy savings and thermal comfort, along with discomfort exceedance metrics. Multiple home types and regions were analyzed to understand regional and climate-dependent potential. Based on actual field data, the occupancy models had a prediction inaccuracy between 8% and 35% across the investigated homes. Average occupancy for the collected data ranged from 56% to 86%, a typical range reported in the literature. Building simulations were conducted for three control scenarios: conventional thermostatic control, occupancy-based, and occupancy-based MPC. The results indicate that all advanced strategies improve upon the conventional control, with some scenarios cutting energy use in half with only occasional incurrence of discomfort. The findings indicate that occupancy-aware model predictive residential building control has the potential to drastically reduce energy use and associated emissions while maintaining occupant comfort for both new and existing buildings.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗

Climate response to off-equatorial stratospheric sulfur injections in three Earth system models – Part 1: Experimental protocols and surface changes

There is now substantial literature on climate model studies of equatorial or tropical stratospheric SO 2 injections that aim to counteract the surface warming produced by rising concentrations of greenhouse gases. Here we present the results from the first systematic intercomparison of climate responses in three Earth system models wherein the injection of SO 2 occurs at different latitudes in the lower stratosphere: CESM2-WACCM6, UKESM1.0 and GISS-E2.1-G. The first two use a modal aerosol microphysics scheme, while two versions of GISS-E2.1-G use a bulk aerosol (One-Moment Aerosol, OMA) and a two-moment (Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state, MATRIX) microphysics approach, respectively. Our aim in this work is to determine commonalities and differences between the climate model responses in terms of the distribution of the optically reflective sulfate aerosols produced from the oxidation of SO 2 and in terms of the surface response to the resulting reduction in solar radiation. A focus on understanding the contribution of characteristics of models transport alongside their microphysical and chemical schemes, and on evaluating the resulting stratospheric responses in different models, is given in the companion paper (Bednarz et al., 2023). The goal of this exercise is not to evaluate these single-point injection simulations as stand-alone proposed strategies to counteract global warming; instead we determine sources and areas of agreement and uncertainty in the simulated responses and, ultimately, the possibility of designing a comprehensive intervention strategy capable of managing multiple simultaneous climate goals through the combination of different injection locations. We find large disagreements between GISS-E2.1-G and the CESM2-WACCM6 and UKESM1.0 models regarding the magnitude of cooling per unit of aerosol optical depth (AOD) produced, which varies from 4.7 K per unit of AOD in CESM2-WACCM6 to 16.7 K in the GISS-E2.1-G version with two-moment aerosol microphysics. By normalizing the results with the global mean response in each of the models and thus assuming that the amount of SO 2 injected is a free parameter that can be managed independently, we highlight some commonalities in the overall distributions of the aerosols, in the inter-hemispheric surface temperature response and in shifts to the Intertropical Convergence Zone, as well as some areas of disagreement, such as the extent of the aerosol confinement in the equatorial region and the efficiency of the transport to polar latitudes. In conclusion, we demonstrate that it is possible to use these simulations to produce more comprehensive injection strategies in multiple climate models. However, large differences in the injection magnitudes can be expected, potentially increasing inter-model spreads in some stratospheric quantities (such as aerosol distribution) while reducing the spread in the surface response in terms of temperature and precipitation; furthermore, the selection of the injection locations may be dependent on the models' specific stratospheric transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data-Driven Invertible Neural Surrogates of Atmospheric Transmission

We present Data-Driven Invertible Neural Surrogates of Atmospheric transmission, or DINSAT. DINSAT is a novel framework for inferring an atmospheric transmission profile from a spectral scene. This framework leverages a lightweight, physics-based simulator that is automatically tuned -- by virtue of autodifferentiation and differentiable programming -- to construct a surrogate atmospheric profile to model the observed data. The framework has utility in (i) performing atmospheric correction, (ii) recasting spectral data between various modalities (e.g. radiance and reflectance at the surface and at the sensor), and (iii) inferring atmospheric transmission profiles, such as absorbing bands and their relative magnitudes. We demonstrate the utility of these methods by performing a canonical atmospheric correction task for the purposes of further analysis - in this case, target detection within a scene.

Koch, James V.↗

Validation of the two-region Rossi-alpha model for reflected assemblies

Nuclear criticality safety, nonproliferation and safeguards, emergency response, and stockpile stewardship utilize estimates of the k eff multiplication factor. The value of k eff cannot be directly measured, but it can be inferred from the prompt neutron period. One modality of measuring the prompt neutron period is the Rossi-alpha method, which is predicated on fitting a histogram of detection time differences due to the nonrandom temporal distribution of same-fission-chain neutrons. Recent works have developed the motivation and theory to expand traditional one-region point kinetic models resulting in one-exponential histogram fits to two-region models that result in two-exponential fits. This paper validates the new two-region model using organic scintillator measurements of copper-reflected weapons-grade plutonium (0:83 ≤ k eff ≤ 0:94) and high-density- polyethylene-reflected highly enriched uranium (0:73 ≤ k eff ≤ 0:95). Furthermore, the results show that more thermal systems have shorter prompt neutron periods in the core region due to increased induced-fission probabilities for moderated neutrons. Here, a new parameter introduced by the two- region model is also shown to be correlated to the amount of reflection, and may be used to infer assembly properties such as type and amount of reflector.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

The Urban Deployment Model: A Toolset for the Simulation and Performance Characterization of Radiation Detector Deployments in Urban Environments

Static and mobile radiation detectors can be deployed in urban environments for a range of nuclear security applications, including radiological source search-and-tracking scenarios. Modeling detector performance for such applications is challenging, as it does not depend solely on the detector capabilities themselves. Many factors must be taken into consideration, including specific source and background signatures, the topology and constraints of the deployment environment, the presence of nuisance sources, and whether detectors are mobile or static. When considering the simultaneous deployment of multiple, heterogeneous detectors, assessment of the system-wide performance requires the simulation of the individual detectors, and a system-level analysis of the detection performance. In radiological source search-and-tracking scenarios, performance is mostly dominated by the probability of encounter, which depends on the specifics of a given deployment, e.g., static vs. mobile detectors or a combination of both modalities, the number of detectors deployed, the dynamic vs. static setting of false alarm rates, and individual vs. networked operation. The Urban Deployment Model (UDM) toolset was specifically developed to cover the gap in the available generic frameworks for the simulation of radiation detector deployments at city scales. UDM provides a unified and modular framework to support the simulation and performance characterization of heterogeneous detector deployments in urban environments. This paper presents the key components along the UDM workflow.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Data-Driven Analysis of Multipactor Dynamics via Dynamic Mode Decomposition

Multipactor effect is a performance-limiting kinetic plasma effect that can occur in high-power microwave and radio frequency (RF) devices. Multipactor effect is of special concern in vacuum or near-vacuum conditions such as those in particle accelerators and spaceborne devices. In this work, we present a data-driven reduced-order model (ROM) based on dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) for modeling of multipactor effects. We study multipactor effects and the resulting nonlinear harmonic generation by processing high-fidelity data generated from electromagnetic particle-in-cell (EMPIC) simulations using the DMD algorithm. We also investigate time-delay embedding extensions of DMD with improved generalizability and accuracy for modeling the electron plasma current density behavior. Here, the results show that DMD provides valuable insights into multipactor phenomena by extracting relevant modal spatiotemporal patterns and frequencies. In addition, DMD offers the potential to time extrapolate EMPIC simulations at a minimal cost, thereby reducing overall simulation time.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Memory embedded non-intrusive reduced order modeling of non-ergodic flows

Generating a digital twin of any complex system requires modeling and computational approaches that are efficient, accurate, and modular. Traditional reduced order modeling techniques are targeted at only the first two, but the novel nonintrusive approach we present in this study is an attempt at taking all three into account effectively compared to their traditional counterparts. Based on dimensionality reduction using proper orthogonal decomposition (POD), we introduce a long short-term memory neural network architecture together with a principal interval decomposition (PID) framework as an enabler to account for localized modal deformation. As an effective partitioning tool for breaking the Kolmogorov barrier, our PID framework, therefore, can be considered a key element in the accurate reduced order modeling of convective flows. Our applications for convection-dominated systems governed by Burgers, Navier-Stokes, and Boussinesq equations demonstrate that the proposed approach yields significantly more accurate predictions than the POD-Galerkin method and could be a key enabler toward near real-time predictions of unsteady flows.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Progress of Tripwire: Multi-Modal Distributed Sensing for Repository Verification

This project is developing and demonstrating a multi-modal sensor system, TRIPWIRE, for containment verification in inaccessible radiological and nuclear waste repositories. The TRIPWIRE system will continuously monitor ionizing radiation and electromagnetic fields in the vicinity of emplaced nuclear materials buried in a repository, reporting on disturbances with a real-time alarm control station. The system will use long-length scintillating fiber bundles (SFBs) to perform area radiation monitoring; these will be coupled to kilometer-scale multimodal optical communication fibers – all light sensors and electronic components used with this system will be located above ground. Electromagnetic fields, and changes in local dielectric conditions caused by intrusion and soil movement, will be monitored using commercial grade, ported "leaky" coaxial cables (PCCs), with control electronics also located above ground. This paper documents the results of the simulations and modeling efforts that have helped identify the optimal placement of the SFBs. Additionally, the paper includes the current progress on the multi-modal SFB-PCC system, including the fabrication of long-length (>3-m) fibers and their coupling to optical fibers.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL↗

Progress of Tripwire: Multi-modal Distributed Sensing for Repository Verification

This project is developing and demonstrating a multi-modal sensor system, TRIPWIRE, for containment verification in inaccessible radiological and nuclear waste repositories. The TRIPWIRE system will continuously monitor ionizing radiation and electromagnetic fields in the vicinity of emplaced nuclear materials buried in a repository, reporting on disturbances with a real-time alarm control station. The system will use long-length scintillating fiber bundles (SFBs) to perform area radiation monitoring; these will be coupled to kilometer-scale multimodal optical communication fibers – all light sensors and electronic components used with this system will be located above ground. Electromagnetic fields, and changes in local dielectric conditions caused by intrusion and soil movement, will be monitored using commercial grade, ported "leaky" coaxial cables (PCCs), with control electronics also located above ground. This paper documents the results of the simulations and modeling efforts that have helped identify the optimal placement of the SFBs. Additionally, the paper includes the current progress on the multi-modal SFB-PCC system, including the fabrication of long-length (>3-m) fibers and their coupling to optical fibers.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL↗

Multi-mode quasi-static excitation for systems with nonlinear joints

Finite element models can be used to model and predict the hysteresis and energy dissipation exhibited by nonlinear joints in structures. As a result of the nonlinearity, the frequency and damping of a mode is dependent on excitation amplitude, and when the modes remain uncoupled, quasi-static modal analysis has been shown to efficiently predict this behavior. However, in some cases the modes have been observed to couple such that the frequency and damping of one mode is dependent on the amplitude of other modes. To model the interactions between modes, one must integrate the dynamic equations in time, which is several orders of magnitude more expensive than quasi-static analysis. This work explores an alternative where quasi-static forces are applied in the shapes of two or more modes of vibration simultaneously, and the resulting load–displacement curves are used to deduce the effect of other modes on the effective frequency and damping of the mode in question. This methodology is demonstrated on a simple 2D cantilever beam structure with a single bolted joint which exhibits micro-slip nonlinearity over a range of vibration amplitudes. The predicted frequency and damping are compared with those extracted from a few expensive dynamic simulations of the structure, showing that the quasi-static approach produces reasonable albeit highly conservative bounds on the observed dynamics. This framework is also demonstrated on a 3D structure where dynamic simulations are infeasible.

42 ENGINEERING↗