Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “maximum likelihood estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Tensor decompositions for count data that leverage stochastic and deterministic optimization

There is growing interest to extend low-rank matrix decompositions to multi-way arrays, or tensors. One fundamental low-rank tensor decomposition is the canonical polyadic decomposition (CPD). The challenge of fitting a low-rank, nonnegative CPD model to Poisson-distributed count data is of particular interest. Several popular algorithms use local search methods to approximate the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the Poisson CPD model. Here, this work presents two new algorithms that extend state-of-the-art local methods for Poisson CPD. Hybrid GCP-CPAPR combines Generalized Canonical Decomposition (GCP) with stochastic optimization and CP Alternating Poisson Regression (CPAPR), a deterministic algorithm, to increase the probability of converging to the MLE over either method used alone. Restarted CPAPR with SVDrop uses a heuristic based on the singular values of the CPD model unfoldings to identify convergence toward optimizers that are not the MLE and restarts within the feasible domain of the optimization problem, thus reducing overall computational cost when using a multi-start strategy. We provide empirical evidence that indicates our approaches outperform existing methods with respect to converging to the Poisson CPD MLE.

CPAPR↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impurity gas detection for SNF canisters using probabilistic deep learning and acoustic sensing *

Abstract Monitoring impurity gases in spent nuclear fuel (SNF) canisters is a novel structural health monitoring approach for SNF in dry storage. The SNF canisters are sealed containers that do not facilitate visual access to the inside. Acoustic sensing can be deployed by taking advantage of the pathways unobstructed by internal hardware. Although the ultrasonic time-of-flight measurement can provide valuable information, it is limited in its ability to discern the concentration of only one impurity gas. As such, deep learning algorithms, particularly convolutional neural networks (CNNs), offer a promising solution. In this study, CNN-based probabilistic deep learning models were implemented to detect and quantify multiple impurity gases in helium. An experimental platform was established to simulate canister conditions, and ultrasonic test data were collected. The presence of argon and air in helium at concentrations ranging from 0% to 1.2% at increments of 0.05% was considered. The multi-layer perceptron, decision tree, and logistic regression classifiers achieved high accuracies when distinguishing pure helium from helium with impurities. CNN with dropout layers and CNN using maximum likelihood estimation showed a similar performance, indicating their ability to capture uncertainties. The ensemble CNN model exhibited improved predictions and the ability to balance individual gas concentration by integrating 1D- and 2D-CNN models. These findings contribute probabilistic deep learning solutions for impurity gas detection and analysis within SNF canisters, thus ensuring safe storage and management of SNFs.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

A possible mass distribution of primordial black holes implied by LIGO-Virgo

The LIGO-Virgo Collaboration has so far detected around 90 black holes, some of which have masses larger than what were expected from the collapse of stars. The mass distribution of LIGO-Virgo black holes appears to have a peak at ~ 30 M ⊙ and two tails on the ends. By assuming that they all have a primordial origin, we analyze the GWTC-1 (O1&O2) and GWTC-2 (O3a) datasets by performing maximum likelihood estimation on a broken power law mass function f ( m ), with the result f ∝ m 1.2 for m < 35 M ⊙ and f ∝ m -4 for m > 35 M ⊙ . This appears to behave better than the popular log-normal mass function. Surprisingly, such a simple and unique distribution can be realized in our previously proposed mechanism of PBH formation, where the black holes are formed by vacuum bubbles that nucleate during inflation via quantum tunneling. Moreover, this mass distribution can also provide an explanation to supermassive black holes formed at high redshifts.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Frequentist cosmological constraints from full-shape clustering measurements in DESI DR1

We present a frequentist analysis of clustering measurements from Data Release 1 of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) using the standard profile likelihood method. While Bayesian inferences for effective field theory models of galaxy clustering can be highly sensitive to prior choices for extended cosmological models, frequentist inferences are not susceptible to such effects. We compare frequentist and Bayesian constraints for the parameter set {σ 8 , H 0 , Ω m , w 0 , w a } using the full-shape power spectrum multipoles, post-reconstruction baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements, and external datasets from the CMB and type Ia supernovae measurements. The frequentist confidence intervals are significantly shifted relative to the Bayesian credible intervals for the w 0 w a CDM model, unless supernovae data are included. When DESI full-shape and BAO data are fit jointly, we obtain the following 1σ frequentist confidence intervals for ΛCDM (w 0 w a CDM): σ 8 = 0.863 +0.048 -0.040 , H 0 = 68.96 +0.81 -0.80 km s -1 Mpc -1 , Ω m = 0.3034 ± 0.0110 (σ 8 = 0.782 +0.060 -0.036 , H 0 = 63.7 +4.2 -2.0 km s -1 Mpc -1 , Ω m = 0.378 +0.024 -0.047 , w 0 = -0.16 +0.10 -0.50 , w a = -3.0 +1.7 ), corresponding to 0.8σ, 0.3σ, 0.7σ (2.1σ, 4.1σ, 6.5σ, 6.3σ, 6.6σ) shifts between the maximum likelihood estimate and the Bayesian posterior mean for ΛCDM (w 0 w a CDM) respectively.

Bayesian reasoning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Monte Carlo method for constructing confidence intervals with unconstrained and constrained nuisance parameters in the NOvA experiment

Measuring observables to constrain models using maximum-likelihood estimation is fundamental to many physics experiments. Wilks' theorem provides a simple way to construct confidence intervals on model parameters, but it only applies under certain conditions. These conditions, such as nested hypotheses and unbounded parameters, are often violated in neutrino oscillation measurements and other experimental scenarios. Monte Carlo methods can address these issues, albeit at increased computational cost. In the presence of nuisance parameters, however, the best way to implement a Monte Carlo method is ambiguous. Furthermore, this paper documents the method selected by the NOvA experiment, the profile construction. It presents the toy studies that informed the choice of method, details of its implementation, and tests performed to validate it. It also includes some practical considerations which may be of use to others choosing to use the profile construction.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting the single-site and multi-site event discrimination power of dual-phase time projection chambers

Dual-phase xenon time projection chambers (TPCs) are widely used in searches for rare dark matter and neutrino interactions, in part because of their excellent position reconstruction capability in 3D. Despite their millimeter-scale resolution along the charge drift axis, xenon TPCs face challenges in resolving single-site (SS) and multi-site (MS) interactions in the transverse plane. In this paper, we build a generic TPC model with an idealized signal readout, and use Fisher Information (FI) to predict its theoretical capability of differentiating SS and MS events using the electroluminescence signal. We also demonstrate via simulation that, when only statistical photon noise is present, the theoretical limits can be approached with conventional reconstruction algorithms like maximum likelihood estimation, and with a convolutional neural network classifier. The implications of this study on future TPC experiments will be discussed.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fast decay of classification error in variational quantum circuits

Variational quantum circuits (VQCs) have shown great potential in near-term applications. However, the discriminative power of a VQC, in connection to its circuit architecture and depth, is not understood. To unleash the genuine discriminative power of a VQC, we propose a VQC system with the optimal classical post-processing—maximum-likelihood estimation on measuring all VQC output qubits. Via extensive numerical simulations, we find that the error of VQC quantum data classification typically decays exponentially with the circuit depth, when the VQC architecture is extensive—the number of gates does not shrink with the circuit depth. This fast error suppression ends at the saturation towards the ultimate Helstrom limit of quantum state discrimination. On the other hand, non-extensive VQCs such as quantum convolutional neural networks are sub-optimal and fail to achieve the Helstrom limit, demonstrating a trade-off between ansatz complexity and classification performance in general. To achieve the best performance for a given VQC, the optimal classical post-processing is crucial even for a binary classification problem. To simplify VQCs for near-term implementations, we find that utilizing the symmetry of the input properly can improve the performance, while oversimplification can lead to degradation.

Zhang, Bingzhi↗
DOE OSTI2024

Joint inference of multiplicative and additive systematics in galaxy density fluctuations and clustering measurements

Galaxy clustering measurements are a key probe of the matter density field in the Universe. With the era of precision cosmology upon us, surveys rely on precise measurements of the clustering signal for meaningful cosmological analysis. However, the presence of systematic contaminants can bias the observed galaxy number density, and thereby bias the galaxy two-point statistics. As the statistical uncertainties get smaller, correcting for these systematic contaminants becomes increasingly important for unbiased cosmological analysis. We present and validate a new method for understanding and mitigating both additive and multiplicative systematics in galaxy clustering measurements (two-point function) by joint inference of contaminants in the galaxy overdensity field (one-point function) using a maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE). We test this methodology with Kilo-Degree Survey-like mock galaxy catalogues and synthetic systematic template maps. We estimate the cosmological impact of such mitigation by quantifying uncertainties and possible biases in the inferred relationship between the observed and the true galaxy clustering signal. Our method robustly corrects the clustering signal to the sub-percent level and reduces numerous additive and multiplicative systematics from 1.5σ to less than 0.1σ for the scenarios we tested. In addition, we provide an empirical approach to identifying the functional form (additive, multiplicative, or other) by which specific systematics contaminate the galaxy number density. Even though this approach is tested and geared towards systematics contaminating the galaxy number density, the methods can be extended to systematics mitigation for other two-point correlation measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seeing through noise in power laws

Despite widespread claims of power laws across the natural and social sciences, evidence in data is often equivocal. Modern data and statistical methods reject even classic power laws such as Pareto’s law of wealth and the Gutenberg–Richter law for earthquake magnitudes. We show that the maximum-likelihood estimators and Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) statistics in widespread use are unexpectedly sensitive to ubiquitous errors in data such as measurement noise, quantization noise, heaping and censorship of small values. This sensitivity causes spurious rejection of power laws and biases parameter estimates even in arbitrarily large samples, which explains inconsistencies between theory and data. We show that logarithmic binning by powers of λ > 1 attenuates these errors in a manner analogous to noise averaging in normal statistics and that λ thereby tunes a trade-off between accuracy and precision in estimation. Binning also removes potentially misleading within-scale information while preserving information about the shape of a distribution over powers of λ, and we show that some amount of binning can improve sensitivity and specificity of K-S tests without any cost, while more extreme binning tunes a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity. We therefore advocate logarithmic binning as a simple essential step in power-law inference.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probing the PeV region in the astrophysical neutrino spectrum using 𝜈 𝜇 from the Southern sky

IceCube has observed a diffuse astrophysical neutrino flux over the energy region from a few TeV to a few PeV. At PeV energies, the spectral shape is not yet well measured due to the low statistics of the data. This analysis probes the gap between 1 and 10 PeV by using high-energy downgoing muon neutrinos. Here, to reject the large atmospheric muon background, two complementary techniques are combined. The first technique selects events with high stochasticity to reject atmospheric muon bundles whose stochastic energy losses are smoothed due to high muon multiplicity. The second technique vetoes atmospheric muons with the IceTop surface array. Using 9 yrs of data, we found two neutrino candidate events in the signal region, consistent with expectation from background, each with relatively high signal probabilities. A joint maximum likelihood estimation is performed using this sample and an independent 9.5-yr sample of tracks to measure the neutrino spectrum. A likelihood ratio test is done to compare the single power-law (SPL) vs SPL+cutoff hypothesis; the SPL+cutoff model is not significantly better than the SPL. High-energy astrophysical objects from four source catalogs are also checked around the direction of the two events. No significant coincidence was found.

Abbasi, R. [Loyola University Chicago] (ORCID:0000↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reconstruction of beam parameters and betatron radiation spectra measured with a Compton spectrometer

The photon flux resulting from high-energy electron beam interactions with high-field systems, such as those found in the upcoming FACET-II experiments at the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, yields deep insight into the electron beam’s underlying dynamics during the interaction. However, extracting this information is an intricate process. To demonstrate how to approach this challenge using modern methods, this paper utilizes simulated data that models plasma wakefield acceleration-derived betatron radiation in experiments to determine reliable methods of reconstructing key beam and beam-plasma interaction properties. For betatron radiation measurements, translating the observed 200⁢ keV to 30⁢ MeV photon double-differential energy-angle spectra obtained from an advanced Compton spectrometer requires testing multiple methods to optimize the pipeline from its response to incident electron beam information. The paper compares maximum likelihood estimation and machine learning to refine the translation of photon spectra into precise electron beam metrics, such as spot size, energy, and emittance, enhancing the understanding of beam behavior within these dense, high-field environments. We also introduce machine learning and the expected maximization algorithm to reconstruct the primary photon spectrum, employing a multilayer neural network for regression analysis of the energy and angle spectra. With appropriate modifications, the advanced methods reproduce relevant incident beam parameters with high accuracy, even for beam sizes in the <10 μ⁢m range. This capacity is critical to understanding intense beam propagation and its optimization in plasma.

Beam code development & simulation techniques↗
DOE OSTI2024

Calibrating two jets at once

Jet-energy calibration is an important aspect of many measurements and searches at the LHC. Currently, these calibrations are performed on a per-jet basis, i.e., agnostic to the properties of other jets in the same event. In this work, we propose taking advantage of the correlations induced by momentum conservation between jets in order to improve their jet-energy calibration. By fitting the p T asymmetry of dijet events in simulation, while remaining agnostic to the p T spectra themselves, we are able to obtain correlation-improved maximum likelihood estimates. This approach is demonstrated with simulated jets from the CMS detector, yielding a 3%–5% relative improvement in the jet-energy resolution, corresponding to a quadrature improvement of approximately 35%. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Gambhir, Rikab (ORCID:0000000251080448)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Beyond integration: modeling every pixel to obtain better structure factors from stills

Most crystallographic data processing methods use pixel integration. In serial femtosecond crystallography (SFX), the intricate interaction between the reciprocal lattice point and the Ewald sphere is integrated out by averaging symmetrically equivalent observations recorded across a large number (10 4 -10 6 ) of exposures. Although sufficient for generating biological insights, this approach converges slowly, and using it to accurately measure anomalous differences has proved difficult. This report presents a novel approach for increasing the accuracy of structure factors obtained from SFX data. A physical model describing all observed pixels is defined to a degree of complexity such that it can decouple the various contributions to the pixel intensities. Model dependencies include lattice orientation, unit-cell dimensions, mosaic structure, incident photon spectra and structure factor amplitudes. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to optimize all model parameters. The application of prior knowledge that structure factor amplitudes are positive quantities is included in the form of a reparameterization. The method is tested using a synthesized SFX dataset of ytterbium(III) lysozyme, where each X-ray laser pulse energy is centered at 9034 eV. This energy is 100 eV above the Yb 3+ L -III absorption edge, so the anomalous difference signal is stable at 10 electrons despite the inherent energy jitter of each femtosecond X-ray laser pulse. This work demonstrates that this approach allows the determination of anomalous structure factors with very high accuracy while requiring an order-of-magnitude fewer shots than conventional integration-based methods would require to achieve similar results.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

C2QA - Bosonic Qiskit

The practical benefits of hybrid quantum information processing hardware that contains continuous-variable objects (bosonic modes such as mechanical or electromagnetic oscillators) in addition to traditional (discrete-variable) qubits have recently been demonstrated by experiments with bosonic codes that reach the break-even point for quantum error correction [1]–[5] and by efficient Gaussian boson sampling simulation of the Franck-Condon spectra of triatomic molecules [6] that is well beyond the capabilities of current qubit-only hardware. The goal of this Co-design Center for Quantum Advantage (C2QA) project is to develop an instruction set architecture (ISA) for hybrid qubit/bosonic mode systems that contains an inventory of the fundamental operations and measurements that are possible in such hardware. The corresponding abstract machine model (AMM) would also contain a description of the appropriate error models associated with the gates, measurements and time evolution of the hardware. This information has been implemented as an extension of IBM Qiskit. IBM Qiskit is an open-source software development toolkit (SDK) for simulating the quantum state of a quantum circuit and for running the same circuits on prototype hardware within the IBM Quantum Experience. We introduce the Bosonic Qiskit software to enable the simulation of hybrid qubit/bosonic systems using the existing Qiskit software development kit [7]. This implementation can be used for simulating new hybrid systems, verifying proposed physical systems, and modeling systems larger than can currently be constructed. We also cover tutorials and example use cases included within the software to study JaynesCummings models, bosonic Hubbard models, plotting Wigner functions and animations, and calculating maximum likelihood estimations using Wigner functions.

quantum, boson, Qiskit↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improved Localization Precision and Angular Resolution of a Cylindrical, Time-Encoded Imaging System From Adaptive Detector Movements

To the first order, the localization precision and angular resolution of a cylindrical, time-encoded imaging (c-TEI) system is governed by the geometry of the system. Improving either measure requires increasing the mask radius or decreasing the detector diameter, both of which are undesirable. Here, we propose an alternative option of repositioning the detector within the mask to increase the detector-to-mask distance in the direction of a source, thereby improving the localization precision and angular resolution in that direction. Since the detector-to-mask distance only increases for a small portion of the field of view (FOV), we propose implementing adaptive imaging where one leverages data collected during the measurement to optimize the system configuration. This article utilizes both simulations and experiments to set upper bounds on the potential gain from adaptive detector movements for one and two sources in the FOV. When only one source is present, adaptive detector movements can improve the localization precision and angular resolution by 20% for a source at 90 cm and by 32% for a far-field source. When two sources are present, adaptive detector movements can improve localization precision and angular resolution by up to 50% for sources that are ~10° apart (90 cm from the system). We experimentally verify these results through maximum likelihood estimation of the source position(s) and image reconstruction of point sources that are close together. As a demonstration of an adaptive imaging algorithm, we image a complex arrangement of special nuclear material at the Zero Power Physics Reactor facility at Idaho National Laboratory.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probing Quantum Telecloning on Superconducting Quantum Processors

Quantum information cannot be perfectly cloned, but approximate copies of quantum information can be generated. Quantum telecloning combines approximate quantum cloning, more typically referred to as quantum cloning, and quantum teleportation. Quantum telecloning allows approximate copies of quantum information to be constructed by separate parties, using the classical results of a Bell measurement made on a prepared quantum telecloning state. Quantum telecloning can be implemented as a circuit on quantum computers using a classical coprocessor to compute classical feedforward instructions using if statements based on the results of a midcircuit Bell measurement in real time. We present universal symmetric optimal 1 → M telecloning circuits and experimentally demonstrate these quantum telecloning circuits for M = 2 up to M = 10, natively executed with real-time classical control systems on IBM Quantum superconducting processors, known as dynamic circuits. We perform the cloning procedure on many different message states across the Bloch sphere, on seven IBM Quantum processors, optionally using the error suppression technique X–X sequence digital dynamical decoupling. Two circuit optimizations are utilized: one that removes ancilla qubits for M = 2,3 , and one that reduces the total number of gates in the circuit but still uses ancilla qubits. Parallel single-qubit tomography with maximum likelihood estimation density matrix reconstruction is used in order to compute the mixed-state density matrices of the clone qubits, and clone quality is measured using quantum fidelity. These results present one of the largest and most comprehensive noisy intermediate-scale quantum computer experimental analyses on (single qubit) quantum telecloning to date. The clone fidelity sharply decreases to 0.5 for M > 5 , but for M = 2 , we are able to achieve a mean clone fidelity of up to 0.79 using dynamical decoupling.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robust Solution Verification Experiments on Nonuniform Meshes

The activities of verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) provide a comprehensive means to assess the credibility of computational models. Within VVUQ, solution verification assesses numerical errors and evaluates whether the simulation is sufficiently accurate for its intended applications. As computational modeling gains traction in the development of complex, high-consequence systems, the need for robust solution verification intensifies, particularly because experimental data for these systems are often limited. This work examines improvements in the robustness of Richardson extrapolation (RE), a method commonly used in solution verification to study the discretization error of computational models using a power law. Nonuniform mesh refinement is discussed alongside other pollutants that affect the robustness of the power law model. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is proposed as a robust strategy to address the uncertainty generated by nonuniform mesh refinement. An exploratory computational fluid dynamics (CFD) study of a 2D planar Poiseuille flow is conducted to determine if nonuniform mesh noise can be modeled with this MLE approach for more robust RE.

Weinmeister, Justin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000160090237↗