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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Normal or abnormal? Machine learning for the leakage detection in carbon sequestration projects using pressure field data

The international commitments for atmospheric carbon reduction will require a rapid increase in carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. The key to any successful CCS project lies in the long term storage and prevention of leakage of stored carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). In addition to being a greenhouse gas, CO 2 leaks reaching the surface can accumulate in low-lying areas resulting in a serious health risk. Among several alternatives, some of the more promising CCS storage formations are depleted oil and gas reservoirs, where the reservoirs had good geological seals prior to hydrocarbon extraction. With more CCS wells coming online, it is imperative to implement permanent, automated monitoring tools. We apply machine learning models to automate the leakage detection process in carbon storage reservoirs using rates of (CO 2 ) injection and pressure data measured by simple harmonic pulse testing (HPT). To validate the feasibility of this machine learning based workflow, we use data from HPT experiments carried out in the Cranfield oil field, Mississippi, USA. The data consist of a series of pulse tests conducted with baseline parameters and with an artificially introduced leak. Here, in this study, we pose the leakage detection task as an anomaly detection problem where deviation from the predicted behavior indicates leaks in the reservoir. Results show that different machine learning architectures such as multi-layer feed forward network, Long Short-Term Memory, and convolutional neural network are able to identify leakages and can provide early warning. These warnings can then be used to take remedial measures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrologic connectivity and dynamics of solute transport in a mountain stream: Insights from a long-term tracer test and multiscale transport modeling informed by machine learning

The movement of solutes in a watershed is a complex process with multiple interactions and feedbacks across spatial and temporal scales. Modeling the dynamics of solute transport along diverse hydrologic pathways within watersheds – from hillslopes to stream channels and in and out of the hyporheic zones – is challenging but critically important, as these processes integrate and contribute to the biogeochemical functioning of the river corridor up to the river network scale. Here we use results from a long-term network-scale tracer test at the H.J. Andrews experimental forest in western Cascade Mountains, Oregon, USA to inform a multiscale framework for transport in stream corridors. The framework uses a Lagrangian-based subgrid model to represent the effects of hyporheic exchange flow and advective transport at stream network scales. The spatially and temporally resolved stream discharge needed for the transport model is imputed across the river system by an entity-aware long short-term memory network. Modeled concentrations show good agreements with the observations and exhibit power scaling laws indicative of a very wide range of timescales over which hyporheic exchange flow occurs. Our results demonstrate a data-informed modeling framework that links dynamical processes occurring at small scales to a network context to help understand how changes at reach scale cascade into network-scale effects, providing a useful tool for sustainable river basin management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing 2D hydrodynamic flood models through machine learning and urban drainage integration

Two-dimensional hydrodynamic flood models are commonly employed for simulating flood extent and inundation depth. However, the influence of urban drainage network (UDN) is frequently overlooked in these models, potentially compromising their accuracy. Furthermore, the expensive computational costs and longer processing times make them challenging for large-scale hydrodynamic simulation. To address these challenges, this paper develops a machine learning (ML)-driven emulator for an open-source flood model, the Two-dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON). A TRITON-ML Emulator (TR-Emulator) that utilizes Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory is developed to capture the spatiotemporal features of flood events based on the outputs from TRITON. We further enhance the emulator by integrating UDN parameters (TR-UDN), such as the flow capacity of drainage pipes, pipe size, and pipe length, via an ML stacking technique to improve the water surface elevation (WSE) simulation. Hurricane Harvey 2017 in Houston, TX is used as the case study. We compare WSE results from TRITON, TR-Emulator, TR-UDN, and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) observations to evaluate the performance of these models. The results indicate that the TR-Emulator effectively replicates the WSE simulated by TRITON. Additionally, TR-UDN performs well in capturing WSE patterns and peak flows, aligning more closely with USGS observations, except in areas with milder slopes where conveyance discrepancies are observed. We further test the generalizability of our ML-based models using another smaller event. This paper shows that the TR-Emulator is effective for users and engineers to emulate a 2D hydrodynamic model, and the enhanced version of the TR-Emulator, TR-UDN, can be an efficient tool for predicting WSEs during urban flooding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving the prediction of daily reservoir releases over the CONUS using conditioned LSTM

Reservoirs play a vital role in regulating streamflow timing and variability for hydroelectricity, flood control, water supply, irrigation, and recreation. Despite their importance, many reservoirs lack comprehensive operational guidelines, making their management complex due to conflicting operational objectives. Hence traditional policy-based reservoir models often fail to capture real-world conditions accurately and they depend on perfect streamflow predictions, which are not always available. In contrast, data-driven models like Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks offer a robust alternative. This study introduces an approach that integrates reservoir characteristics—such as main use, climate, and maximum capacity—into the LSTM model to enhance reservoir release predictions. Using data from nearly 200 reservoirs in the contiguous United States (CONUS), our conditioned LSTM model (LSTM_cond) was compared with both the vanila LSTM and a traditional policy-based approach. Furthermore, our results show that while both LSTM_cond and LSTM perfoms better than the policy-based approach, LSTM_cond consistently outperforms LSTM for hydroelectric, water supply, irrigation, and recreation reservoirs. The KGE median values for LSTM_cond for out-sample reservoirs are 0.764, 0.565, 0.821, and 0.779, respectively, for the aforementioned reservoir types, which are consistently higher that the corresponding KGE values of 0.737, 0.413, 0.775, and 0.713 of LSTM, demonstrating its advantages in improving generalizability.

CONUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing stream temperature prediction with a generalizable large-sample framework across CONUS river reaches

Accurately predicting stream temperature in ungauged basins remains a critical challenge for water resource management, thermoelectric power plant cooling, and ecosystem conservation. Large-sample machine learning models trained on hundreds of well-monitored river basins have shown remarkable performance; however, such models have yet to be developed solely using forcing data that can be readily extracted to simulate stream temperatures anywhere in the contiguous United States (CONUS). In this study, we present a scalable, large-sample deep learning framework using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to simulate daily stream temperatures in ungauged basins across the CONUS. The framework leverages both modeled reanalysis of meteorological and streamflow inputs as well as static attributes available for all 2.7 million CONUS river reaches in the National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlusV2). By generating dynamical inputs from predefined thermally relevant upstream contributing areas, rather than the entire upstream basin, the model also offers improvements in very large basins where full-basin averaging can dilute the most important influences on stream temperature. Evaluated across 300 basins, the model achieves a median Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 1.1 °C and a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.95 on temporally and spatially distinct test folds—comparable to models trained exclusively using meteorological and streamflow observational data. The flexible, high-performing framework generalizes to any unmonitored river reach without significant regulation or unnatural thermal input immediately upstream, substantially expanding predictive capabilities in data-scarce regions.

Hydrology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting river turbidity in Pine Island Bayou using machine learning techniques coupled with variational mode decomposition

Elevated turbidity levels pose significant public health risks by facilitating the transport of harmful pollutants, including metals, organic compounds, and pathogenic microorganisms into the surface water. These conditions create serious challenges for public recreational water use and drinking water treatment, leading to economic losses and health risks. This study utilizes water monitoring data in Pine Island Bayou, Texas, and develops a Sequence-to-Sequence (S2S) model to predict turbidity using Attention-based Gated Recurrent Units with Encoder-Decoder (AT-GRU-ED) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), coupled with Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD). Compared to the model without VMD, the model demonstrates satisfactory 72-hour turbidity prediction performance, achieving MAEs of 2.60 and 3.29 NTU (reductions of 53% and 58%), RMSEs of 21.08 and 31.49 NTU (reductions of 82% and 80%), and R² values of 0.96 and 0.84 on the validation and test sets, respectively. Feature importance analysis reveals that water temperature is the dominant factor influencing seasonal turbidity patterns, while real-time hourly rainfall significantly contributes to short-term variability. Turbidity typically peaks within 48 hours after rainfall events due to lagged effects from surface runoff and upstream flow. Findings suggest suspending recreational water use and water supply pumping for three days after heavy rainfall can benefit public health and improve water treatment processes. Discharges above 100 m3/s are found to accelerate sediment dilution and transport, reducing turbidity levels more quickly after the peak. In conclusion, the proposed model demonstrates reliable 72-hour turbidity prediction, supporting decision-making for water treatment plant operations and providing early warning for public recreational water use.

Deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic data-driven multiscale modeling for predicting the degradation of a 316L stainless steel nuclear cladding material

Here, we have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Feedforward-feedback ammonia control at a water resource recovery facility based on a digital twin with hybrid model

Ammonia-based aeration control (ABAC) at full-scale Water Resource Recovery Facilities (WRRFs) can be challenged by diurnal loading and transport delays. This work addressed these challenges using a hybrid feedforward–feedback controller built on Activated Sludge Model 1 (ASM1), marking the first full-scale deployment to pair a mechanistic feedforward core with data-driven corrections. The objectives were to improve ammonia setpoint tracking, assess performance of the mechanistic model when enhanced with data-driven corrections, and document full-scale operation. The hybrid model incorporates two data-driven components: (1) a Mechanistic Error Forecasting Engine (MEFE), consisting of a multivariate linear regressor and a long short-term memory (LSTM) ensemble. Defying expectations, low-parameter models outperformed more complex alternatives, reducing the mechanistic error by 71%. (2) A Residual Oscillation Forecasting Engine (ROFE), based on Fast Fourier Transform, reduced the remaining error by another 35%. Two proportional–integral (PI) feedback loops further (i) trim the feedforward output and (ii) eliminate residual controller error in the final aerobic zone. In full-scale operation, the controller reduced mean-squared error (MSE) by 94% over the baseline and produced more stable dissolved oxygen (DO) setpoints. Overall, it was proven that layering multi-timescale data-driven models on a mechanistic core can yield reliable ABAC performance at WRRFs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A comparison of machine learning surrogate models of street-scale flooding in Norfolk, Virginia

Low-lying coastal cities, exemplified by Norfolk, Virginia, face the challenge of street flooding caused by rainfall and tides, which strain transportation and sewer systems and can lead to personal and property damage. While high-fidelity, physics-based simulations provide accurate predictions of urban pluvial flooding, their computational complexity renders them unsuitable for real-time applications. Using data from Norfolk rainfall events between 2016 and 2018, this study compares the performance of a previous surrogate model based on a random forest algorithm with two deep learning models: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). The comparison of deep learning to the random forest algorithm is motivated by the desire to utilize a machine learning architecture that allows for the future inclusion of common uncertainty quantification techniques and the effective integration of relevant, multi-modal features.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Time-series learning of latent-space dynamics for reduced-order model closure

In this work, we study the performance of long short-term memory networks (LSTMs) and neural ordinary differential equations (NODEs) in learning latent-space representations of dynamical equations for an advection-dominated problem given by the viscous Burgers equation. Our formulation is devised in a nonintrusive manner with an equation-free evolution of dynamics in a reduced space with the latter being obtained through a proper orthogonal decomposition. In addition, we leverage the sequential nature of learning for both LSTMs and NODEs to demonstrate their capability for closure in systems that are not completely resolved in the reduced space. We assess our hypothesis for two advection-dominated problems given by the viscous Burgers equation. We observe that both LSTMs and NODEs are able to reproduce the effects of the absent scales for our test cases more effectively than does intrusive dynamics evolution through a Galerkin projection. This result empirically suggests that time-series learning techniques implicitly leverage a memory kernel for coarse-grained system closure as is suggested through the Mori–Zwanzig formalism.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modern deep neural networks for Direct Normal Irradiance forecasting: A classification approach

The escalating energy demand and the adverse environmental impacts of fossil-fuel use necessitate a shift towards cleaner and renewable alternatives. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technology emerges as a promising solution, offering a carbon-free alternative for power generation. The efficiency and profitability of CSP depend on the Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) component of solar radiation; hence, accurate DNI forecasting can help optimize CSP plants’ operations and performance. The unpredictable nature of weather phenomena, particularly cloud cover, introduces uncertainty into DNI projections. Existing DNI forecasting models use meteorological factors, which are both challenging to estimate numerically over short prediction windows and expensive to model through data at a sufficiently high spatial and temporal resolution. This research addresses the challenge by presenting a novel approach that formulates DNI prediction as a multi-class classification problem, departing from conventional regression-based methods. The primary objective of this classification framework is to identify optimal periods aligning with specific operational thresholds for CSP plants, contributing to enhanced dispatch optimization strategies. We model the DNI classification problem using four advanced deep neural networks – rectified linear unit (ReLU) networks, 1D residual networks (ResNets), bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) networks, and transformers – achieving accuracies up to 93.5% without requiring meteorological parameters.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Power generation forecasting for solar plants based on Dynamic Bayesian networks by fusing multi-source information

A Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model for solar power generation forecasting in solar plants is proposed in this paper. The key idea is to fuse sensor data, operational indicators, meteorological data, lagged output power information, and model errors for more accurate short-term (e.g., hours) and mid-term (e.g., days to weeks) power generation forecasting. The proposed DBN augments automated data-driven structure learning with expert knowledge encoding using continuous and categorical data given constraints to represent causal relationships within a solar inverter system. Additionally, an error compensation mechanism is proposed to capture temporal fluctuation. The effectiveness of the DBN on solar power generation forecasting was evaluated by rolling window analysis with one-year testing data collected from a local solar plant. The proposed DBN is compared with four state-of-art methods including support-vector regression (SVR), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), artificial neural network (ANN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) models. The result show that the proposed DBN achieves better accuracy in general, and it is not as data-hungry as some neural network-based models. The proposed DBN is also shown to have robust and consistent forecasting power with different forecasting horizons. The accuracy is 92% - 95% from one hour to one week ahead forecasting.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Efficient proactive vehicle relocation for on-demand mobility service with recurrent neural networks

One major challenge for on-demand mobility service (OMS) providers is to seamlessly match empty vehicles with trip requests so that the total vacant mileage is minimized. In this work, we develop an innovative data-driven approach for devising efficient vehicle relocation policy for OMS that (1) proactively relocates vehicles before the demand is observed and (2) reduces the inequality among drivers' income so that the proactive relocation policy is fair and is likely to be followed by drivers. Our approach represents the fusion of optimization and machine learning methods, which comprises three steps: First, we formulate the optimal proactive relocation as an optimal/stable matching problems and solve for global optimal solutions based on historical data. Second, the optimal solutions are then grouped and fed to train the deep learning models which consist of fully connected layers and long short-term memory networks. Low rank approximation is introduced to reduce the model complexity and improve the training performances. Finally, we use the trained model to predict the relocation policy which can be implemented in real time. We conduct comprehensive numerical experiments and sensitivity analyses to demonstrate the performances of the proposed method using New York City taxi data. Here, the results suggest that our method will reduce empty mileage per trip by 54-70% under optimal matching strategy, and a 25-32% reduction can also be achieved by following stable matching strategy. We also validate that the predicted relocation policies are robust in the presence of uncertain passenger demand level and passenger trip-requesting behavior.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Trajectory prediction dimensionality reduction for low-cost connected automated vehicle systems

Here, to facilitate low-cost connected automated vehicle (CAV) system development, this study proposes two interpretable dimensionality reduction techniques in vehicle trajectory prediction, i.e., the piecewise Taylor series approximation (PTA) and the piecewise Fourier series approximation (PFA), to lower computation complexity, reduce device investment, and decrease computation energy consumption. Two benchmarks are developed, the long short-term memory (LSTM)-based model without dimensionality reduction and the LSTM-based model with encoder-decoder (a widely used dimensionality reduction technique). Results show that the four predictions have similar accuracy, and the training time (proportional to computation energy consumption) of models with dimensionality reduction techniques is greatly reduced. The reduction is even more significant when PTA/PFA is used. Sensitivity analysis advises PFA/PTA parameter selections to reduce computation complexity without significant loss of prediction accuracy. Further, the robustness of the LSTM PTA/PFA is proven by the investigation of data noises.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Knowledge-guided graph machine learning for spatially distributed prediction of daily discharge and nitrogen export dynamics

Spatially distributed prediction of streamflow and nitrogen export dynamics is essential for precision management of agricultural watersheds. While temporal deep learning models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) have shown strong performance at basin scales, their ability to generalize spatially is limited by insufficient representation of spatial dependencies and flow paths, particularly under data-scarce conditions. To address this gap, we propose HydroGraphNet, a knowledge-guided graph machine learning framework that integrates process-based knowledge and explicit spatial learning into temporal modeling. This framework incorporates directed graph topology to encode watershed connectivity and upstream inflows, with mass balance constraints to improve physical consistency. To enhance generalization in sparsely monitored regions, HydroGraphNet is pretrained on synthetic data generated by the SWAT+ (Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus) model. We evaluated HydroGraphNet in the Upper Sangamon River Basin (44 HUC-12 subwatersheds, 2001–2020) against two LSTM baselines: a lumped basin-level model and a distributed variant. When benchmarked on SWAT+ simulations in pretraining, HydroGraphNet improved test NSEs by 8.9% (discharge) and 13.7% (NO₃–N load) in temporal extrapolation, and by 27.1% and 34.7% in spatial extrapolation, relative to the Lumped LSTM baseline. After fine-tuning with USGS monitoring data, the model achieved mean test NSE (KGE) scores of 0.768 (0.861) for discharge and 0.626 (0.664) for NO₃–N load, substantially outperforming baselines. Attribution analysis further highlighted the importance of upstream inflow representation and graph-based spatial learning in capturing cross-subwatershed dependencies. The model also reproduced seasonal hydrological and biogeochemical patterns consistent with known processes, demonstrating its robustness and process fidelity for spatially distributed prediction. Altogether, HydroGraphNet advances the integration of physical knowledge and spatially explicit learning in hydrological modeling, offering a generalizable framework for distributed modeling to support spatially targeted water quality management in data-scarce watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Differentiable, Learnable, Regionalized Process-Based Models With Multiphysical Outputs can Approach State-Of-The-Art Hydrologic Prediction Accuracy

Predictions of hydrologic variables across the entire water cycle have significant value for water resources management as well as downstream applications such as ecosystem and water quality modeling. Recently, purely data-driven deep learning models like long short-term memory (LSTM) showed seemingly insurmountable performance in modeling rainfall runoff and other geoscientific variables, yet they cannot predict untrained physical variables and remain challenging to interpret. Here, we show that differentiable, learnable, process-based models (called δ models here) can approach the performance level of LSTM for the intensively observed variable (streamflow) with regionalized parameterization. We use a simple hydrologic model HBV as the backbone and use embedded neural networks, which can only be trained in a differentiable programming framework, to parameterize, enhance, or replace the process-based model's modules. Without using an ensemble or post-processor, δ models can obtain a median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.732 for 671 basins across the USA for the Daymet forcing data set, compared to 0.748 from a state-of-the-art LSTM model with the same setup. For another forcing data set, the difference is even smaller: 0.715 versus 0.722. Meanwhile, the resulting learnable process-based models can output a full set of untrained variables, for example, soil and groundwater storage, snowpack, evapotranspiration, and baseflow, and can later be constrained by their observations. Both simulated evapotranspiration and fraction of discharge from baseflow agreed decently with alternative estimates. The general framework can work with models with various process complexity and opens up the path for learning physics from big data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of the SYM-H Index Using a Bayesian Deep Learning Method With Uncertainty Quantification

We propose a novel deep learning framework, named SYMHnet, which employs a graph neural network and a bidirectional long short-term memory network to cooperatively learn patterns from solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters for short-term forecasts of the SYM-H index based on 1- and 5-min resolution data. SYMHnet takes, as input, the time series of the parameters' values provided by NASA's Space Science Data Coordinated Archive and predicts, as output, the SYM-H index value at time point t + w hours for a given time point t where w is 1 or 2. By incorporating Bayesian inference into the learning framework, SYMHnet can quantify both aleatoric (data) uncertainty and epistemic (model) uncertainty when predicting future SYM-H indices. Experimental results show that SYMHnet works well at quiet time and storm time, for both 1- and 5-min resolution data. The results also show that SYMHnet generally performs better than related machine learning methods. For example, SYMHnet achieves a forecast skill score (FSS) of 0.343 compared to the FSS of 0.074 of a recent gradient boosting machine (GBM) method when predicting SYM-H indices (1 hr in advance) in a large storm (SYM-H = -393 nT) using 5-min resolution data. When predicting the SYM-H indices (2 hr in advance) in the large storm, SYMHnet achieves an FSS of 0.553 compared to the FSS of 0.087 of the GBM method. In addition, SYMHnet can provide results for both data and model uncertainty quantification, whereas the related methods cannot.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep Learning Advances Arctic River Water Temperature Predictions

The accelerated warming in the Arctic poses serious risks to freshwater ecosystems by altering streamflow and river thermal regimes. However, limited research on Arctic River water temperatures exists due to data scarcity and the absence of robust methodologies, which often focus on large, major river basins. To address this, we leveraged the newly released, extensive AKTEMP data set and advanced machine learning techniques to develop a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. By incorporating ERA5-Land reanalysis data and integrating physical understanding into data-driven processes, our model advanced river water temperature predictions in ungauged, snow- and permafrost-affected basins in Alaska. Our model outperformed existing approaches in high-latitude regions, achieving a median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.95 and root mean squared error of 1.0°C. The LSTM model learned air temperature, soil temperature, solar radiation, and thermal radiation—factors associated with energy balance—were the most important drivers of river temperature dynamics. Soil moisture and snow water equivalent were highlighted as critical factors representing key processes such as thawing, melting, and groundwater contributions. Glaciers and permafrost were also identified as important covariates, particularly in seasonal river water temperature predictions. Our LSTM model successfully captured the complex relationships between hydrometeorological factors and river water temperatures across varying timescales and hydrological conditions. This scalable and transferable approach can be potentially applied across the Arctic, offering valuable insights for future conservation and management efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗