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At least 271 records · Page 15

Simulation Assisted Risk Assessment Applied to Launch Vehicle Conceptual Design

A simulation-based risk assessment approach is presented and is applied to the analysis of abort during the ascent phase of a space exploration mission. The approach utilizes groupings of launch vehicle failures, referred to as failure bins, which are mapped to corresponding failure environments. Physical models are used to characterize the failure environments in terms of the risk due to blast overpressure, resulting debris field, and the thermal radiation due to a fireball. The resulting risk to the crew is dynamically modeled by combining the likelihood of each failure, the severity of the failure environments as a function of initiator and time of the failure, the robustness of the crew module, and the warning time available due to early detection. The approach is shown to support the launch vehicle design process by characterizing the risk drivers and identifying regions where failure detection would significantly reduce the risk to the crew.

Mathias, Donovan L.↗

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelizable Probabilistic Machine Learning and Uncertainty Quantification Capabilities

The Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) is a widely used open- source finite element software for performing multiphysics multiscale simulations in a massively parallel fashion. Recently, the computational team at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has implemented Probabilistic Machine Learning (ProbML) capabilities in MOOSE—in a parallelized fashion—and enable active learning with large-scale computational models for tasks such as surrogate model development, scale bridging, forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ), Bayesian optimization, etc. This presentation summarizes these developments in MOOSE along with demonstrations on several real applications relevant to nuclear energy. At the fundamental level, samplers like Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube, variance reduction, parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) support uncertainty propagation in both forward and inverse settings. These samplers can be integrated with the Gaussian processes (GP) suite in MOOSE, which offer several variants like scalar GPs, multi-output GPs, and deep GPs, to enable active learning. These GPs can be tuned using gradient-based optimization methods like Adam and its variants or gradient-free methods like the elliptical slice sampler (a variant of MCMC adept under Gaussian settings) for more complex covariance kernels or likelihoods whose gradient computations can be cumbersome. A variety of batch acquisition functions permit parallelized evaluation of the computational model and support different learning objectives with high efficiency like Bayesian inference, global surrogate development, optimization, etc. Furthermore, libtorch integration supports training, evaluation, and re-training of neural networks and other complex machine learning models in active learning settings. The impacts of these developments are shown on several real applications: (1) nuclear fuel inverse UQ and model inadequacy assessment using the Kennedy O’Hagan framework; (2) uncertainty aware surrogate modeling for additive manufacturing to predict field quantities; (3) nuclear reactor rare events analysis; and (4) complex fluid flow prediction using a global surrogate with quantified prediction uncertainty. Finally, the outlook of MOOSE ProbML is discussed for both outer-loop and inner-loop computations in the broad view to accelerate fuels and materials qualification, address gaps in knowledge and data, and assess new reactor/fuel systems.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

The contributions from the progenitor genomes of the mesopolyploid Brassiceae are evolutionarily distinct but functionally compatible

The members of the tribe Brassiceae share a whole-genome triplication (WGT), and one proposed model for its formation is a two-step pair of hybridizations producing hexaploid descendants. However, evidence for this model is incomplete, and the evolutionary and functional constraints that drove evolution after the hexaploidy are even less understood. Here, we report a new genome sequence of Crambe hispanica , a species sister to most sequenced Brassiceae. Using this new genome and three others that share the hexaploidy, we traced the history of gene loss after the WGT using the Polyploidy Orthology Inference Tool (POInT). We confirm the two-step formation model and infer that there was a significant temporal gap between those two allopolyploidizations, with about a third of the gene losses from the first two subgenomes occurring before the arrival of the third. We also, for the 90,000 individual genes in our study, make parental subgenome assignments, inferring, with measured uncertainty, from which of the progenitor genomes of the allohexaploidy each gene derives. We further show that each subgenome has a statistically distinguishable rate of homoeolog losses. There is little indication of functional distinction between the three subgenomes: the individual subgenomes show no patterns of functional enrichment, no excess of shared protein-protein or metabolic interactions between their members, and no biases in their likelihood of having experienced a recent selective sweep. We propose a "mix and match" model of allopolyploidy, in which subgenome origin drives homoeolog loss propensities but where genes from different subgenomes function together without difficulty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Apollo flight crew vestibular assessment

Vestibular function in the weightless state of space flight is examined. Due to the lack of a systematic program to assess quantitatively the effects of space flight on crew vestibular function the analysis is based on qualitative information derived from motion sickness histories and subjective reporting by individual astronauts on the type and magnitude of vestibular disturbances experienced during and following their missions. It is concluded that the increased mobility afforded by the larger volume of the Apollo CM/LM resulted in a higher incidence of vestibular disturbances in the Apollo Program and that it is difficult to predict the likelihood of inflight vestibular problems. Quantitative examination of the effects of weightlessness on the vestibular function is recommended.

J.L. Homick↗

Adding GPU Support to the Markov Chain Monte Carlo Code Catmip

In geophysics, we are confronted with many under-determined inverse problems. For example, all of our observations of earthquakes are made at the Earth’s surface. So, when we try to infer how slip during an earthquake evolves in space and time, we find that there are many potential slip histories that are consistent with our limited observations and our understanding of earthquake physics. One way to approach these problems is with Bayesian analysis which allows us to infer the ensemble of all potential slip models that satisfy the observations and our prior knowledge of earthquake physics. In Bayesian analysis, our prior knowledge is known as the prior probability density function or prior PDF, the fit to the data is known as the data likelihood, and the target PDF that satisfies both the prior PDF and data likelihood is known as the posterior PDF. However, simulating the posterior PDF typically requires using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to draw tens of billions of random realizations of earthquake slip models, which may not be computationally feasible. To make this and similar geophysical inversions computationally tractable, we developed the Cascading Adaptive Transitional Metropolis In Parallel (CATMIP) algorithm. CATMIP is an efficient parallel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler that is used for model fitting and uncertainty quantification in geophysics. Example use cases are earthquake rupture modeling, determining mineral composition on Mars, reconstructing the history of ocean salinity, and historical earthquake relocation. CATMIP employs many parallel instances of the Metropolis algorithm for sampling in a transitioning framework. Transitioning is a process in which a set of random samples at equilibrium with a known probability density function (PDF) are used as seeds for the Markov chains to sample successive target PDFs that incrementally move the distribution from the starting seeds to the final desired PDF that describes the relative plausibility of potential values for the model parameters. The algorithm is implemented as a Master-Worker model employing MPI for communication. The worker processes are loosely coupled with global parameters periodically optimized by the master process. This provides a very high amount of parallelism with little communication between updates. During the presentation we will discuss the history of the algorithm and elaborate the earthquake rupture modeling use case for the CATMIP package. Our first step toward GPU optimization was to optimize the code for the CPU. CPU profiling revealed that most of the compute time is spent in calls to level 2 BLAS routines and calls to GSL random number generators. We revised the algorithm to employ level 3 BLAS routines instead. In our presentation we will describe how this was accomplished. Adding GPU support to CATMIP consisted mostly of replacing the calls to GSL with calls to GPU vendor-provided library routines. A small number of loops were directly implemented in CUDA. In the presentation will provide implementation details. Finally, we will discuss methods for profiling and opportunities for further optimizing GPU execution. By creating a code with the flexibility to run on either a CPU or GPU architecture, CATMIP can be used on systems ranging from large CPU-based HPC environments to single servers with GPU acceleration and everything in between.

HECC↗

Quantum Chemical Evaluation of the Astrochemical Significance of Reactions between S Atom and Acetylene or Ethylene

Addition-elimination reactions of S atom in its P-3 ground state with acetylene (C2H2) and ethylene (C2H4) were characterized with both molecular orbital and density functional theory calculations employing correlation consistent basis sets in order to assess the likelihood either reaction might play a general role in astrochemistry or a specific role in the formation of S2 (X (sup 3 SIGMA (sub g) (sup -)) via a mechanism proposed by Saxena and Misra (Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 1995, 272, 89). The acetylene and ethylene reactions proceed through C2H2S ((sup 3)A")) and C2H4S ((sup 3)A")) intermediates, respectively, to yield HCCS ((sup 2)II)) and C2H3S ((sup 2)A')). Substantial barriers were found in the exit channels for every combination of method and basis set considered in this work, which effectively precludes hydrogen elimination pathways for both S + C2H2 and S + C2H4 in the ultracold interstellar medium where only very modest barriers can be surmounted and processes without barriers tend to predominate. However, if one or both intermediates is formed and stabilized efficiently under cometary or dense interstellar cloud conditions, they could serve as temporary reservoirs for S atom and participate in reactions such as S + C2H2S (right arrow) S2 = C2H2 or S + C2H4S (right arrow) S2 + C2H4. For formation and stabilization to be efficient, the reaction must possess a barrier height small enough to be surmountable at low temperatures yet large enough to prevent redissociation to reactants. Barrier heights computed with B3LYP and large basis sets are very low, but more rigorous QCISD(T) and RCCSD(T) results indicate that the barrier heights are closer to 3-4 kcal/mol. The calculations therefore indicate that S + C2H2 or S + C2H4 could contribute to the formation of S2 in comets and may serve as a means to gauge coma temperature. The energetics of the ethylene reaction are more favorable.

Woon, David E.↗

Accelerating Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling with diffusion models

Global fits of physics models require efficient methods for exploring high-dimensional and/or multimodal posterior functions. We introduce a novel method for accelerating Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling by pairing a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with a diffusion model that can draw global samples with the aim of approximating the posterior. We briefly review diffusion models in the context of image synthesis before providing a streamlined diffusion model tailored towards low-dimensional data arrays. We then present our adapted Metropolis-Hastings algorithm which combines local proposals with global proposals taken from a diffusion model that is regularly trained on the samples produced during the MCMC run. Our approach leads to a significant reduction in the number of likelihood evaluations required to obtain an accurate representation of the Bayesian posterior across several analytic functions, as well as for a physical example based on a global fit of parton distribution functions. Our method is extensible to other MCMC techniques, and we briefly compare our method to similar approaches based on normalising flows. A code implementation can be found at https://github.com/NickHunt-Smith/MCMC-diffusion.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Communication Limits Due to Photon-Detector Jitter

A theoretical and experimental study was conducted of the limit imposed by photon-detector jitter on the capacity of a pulse-position-modulated optical communication system in which the receiver operates in a photon-counting (weak-signal) regime. Photon-detector jitter is a random delay between impingement of a photon and generation of an electrical pulse by the detector. In the study, jitter statistics were computed from jitter measurements made on several photon detectors. The probability density of jitter was mathematically modeled by use of a weighted sum of Gaussian functions. Parameters of the model were adjusted to fit histograms representing the measured-jitter statistics. Likelihoods of assigning detector-output pulses to correct pulse time slots in the presence of jitter were derived and used to compute channel capacities and corresponding losses due to jitter. It was found that the loss, expressed as the ratio between the signal power needed to achieve a specified capacity in the presence of jitter and that needed to obtain the same capacity in the absence of jitter, is well approximated as a quadratic function of the standard deviation of the jitter in units of pulse-time-slot duration.

Moision, Bruce E.↗

Methods of periodicity analysis - Relationship between the Rayleigh analysis and a maximum likelihood method

For periodicity analysis of occurrence rates of discrete events, one can use the maximum likelihood method or the 'Rayleigh analysis'. In a maximum likelihood analysis using a sinusoidal distribution, one tries various values of amplitude A and phase angle Theta(0) of the distribution function. We show that these two methods are essentially equivalent to one another in spite of their different mathematical origins. Using the Rayleigh analysis, therefore, we can simply calculate A and Theta(0) which maximize the likelihood. Using the cumulative nature of the logarithmic likelihood, we can identify time intervals during which the periodicity is in operation. When a periodicity operates only in certain time intervals, it is important to identify these intervals. Mathematically, the above technique is applicable only to discrete events. However, with slight modifications we can apply this technique to general cases - periodicity analysis of measurements of continuously varying quantities.

Bai, T.↗

Utilizing the maximum likelihood estimator for flow analysis

We explore the possibility of evaluating flow harmonics by employing the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). For a given finite multiplicity, the MLE simultaneously furnishes estimations for all the parameters of the underlying distribution function while efficiently suppressing the variance of measures. Also, the method provides a means to assess a specific class of mixed harmonics, which is not straightforwardly feasible by the approaches primarily based on particle correlations. The results are analyzed using the Wald, likelihood ratio, and score tests of hypotheses. Besides, the resultant flow harmonics obtained using MLE are compared with those derived using particle correlations and event plane methods. Here, the dependencies of extracted flow harmonics on the multiplicity of individual events and the total number of events are analyzed. It is shown that the proposed approach works efficiently to deal with the deficiency in detector acceptability. Moreover, we elaborate on a fictitious scenario where the event plane is not a well-defined quantity in the distribution function. For the latter case, the MLE is shown to largely perform better than the two-particle correlation estimator. In this regard, one concludes that the MLE furnishes a meaningful alternative to the existing approaches for flow analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Probabilities and statistics for backscatter estimates obtained by a scatterometer

Methods for the recovery of winds near the surface of the ocean from measurements of the normalized radar backscattering cross section must recognize and make use of the statistics (i.e., the sampling variability) of the backscatter measurements. Radar backscatter values from a scatterometer are random variables with expected values given by a model. A model relates backscatter to properties of the waves on the ocean, which are in turn generated by the winds in the atmospheric marine boundary layer. The effective wind speed and direction at a known height for a neutrally stratified atmosphere are the values to be recovered from the model. The probability density function for the backscatter values is a normal probability distribution with the notable feature that the variance is a known function of the expected value. The sources of signal variability, the effects of this variability on the wind speed estimation, and criteria for the acceptance or rejection of models are discussed. A modified maximum likelihood method for estimating wind vectors is described. Ways to make corrections for the kinds of errors found for the Seasat SASS model function are described, and applications to a new scatterometer are given.

Pierson, Willard J., Jr.↗

Vessel Rupture Thresholds for Vessel–Bubble Interactions Using an Earthworm Vasculature Model

Intravenous microbubble oscillation in the presence of ultrasound has the potential to yield a wide range of therapeutic benefits. However, the likelihood of vessel damage caused by mechanical effects has not been quantified as a function of the numerous important parameters in therapeutic ultrasound procedures. In this study, we examined the effects of microbubbles injected into the vasculature of the earthworm. It was found that the elastic properties of earthworm blood vessels are similar to those of arteries in older humans, and that earthworms are well suited to the large number of experiments necessary to investigate safety of procedures involving microbubble oscillation in sonicated vessels. Microbubbles were infused into earthworm vessels, and the rupture time during sonication was recorded as a function of ultrasound frequency, pulse repetition frequency and acoustic pressure. A modified mechanical index (MMI) was defined that successfully captured the trends in rupture probability and rupture time for the different parameter values, creating a database of vessel rupture thresholds. In the absence of bubbles, the product of MMI squared and rupture time was approximately constant, indicating a possible radiation-force effect. Here, the MMI was an effective correlating parameter in the presence of bubbles, though the mathematical dependence is not yet apparent. The results of the study are expected to be valuable in designing more refined studies in vertebrate models, as well as informing computational models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Evidence against the Efimov effect in 12 C from spectroscopy and astrophysics

Background: The Efimov effect is a universal phenomenon in physics whereby three-body systems are stabilized via the interaction of an unbound two-body subsystems. A hypothetical state in 12 C at 7.458-MeV excitation energy, comprising a loose structure of three α particles in mutual two-body resonance, has been suggested in the literature to correspond to an Efimov state in nuclear physics. The existence of such a state has not been demonstrated experimentally. Purpose: Using a combination of γ spectroscopy, charged-particle spectroscopy, and astrophysical rate calculations allowing for strict limits on the existence of such a state to been established here. Method: Using the combined data sets from two recent experiments, one with the TexAT (Texas Active Target) TPC (Time Projection Chamber) to measure α decay and the other with Gammasphere to measure γ decay of states in 12 C populated by 12 N and 12 B β decay, respectively, we achieve high sensitivity to states in close proximity to the α threshold in 12 C. Results: No evidence of a state at 7.458 MeV is seen in either data set. Using a likelihood method, the 95% confidence limit γ -decay branching ratio is determined as a function of the β-decay feeding strength relative to the Hoyle state. In parallel, calculations of the 3α reaction rate show the inclusion of the Efimov corresponds to a large increase in the reaction rate around 5 × 10 7 K. Conclusion: From decay spectroscopy—at the 95% confidence limit, the Efimov state cannot exist at 7.458 MeV with any γ-decay branching ratio unless the β strength is less than 0.7% of the Hoyle state. This limit is evaluated for a range of different excitation energies and the results are not favorable for existence of the hypothetical Efimov state in 12 C . Furthermore, the 3α reaction rate with the inclusion of a state between 7.43 and 7.53 MeV exceeds the rate required for stars to undergo the red giant phase.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Guide star targeting success for the HEAO-B observatory

The statistics associated with the successful selection and acquisition of guide stars as attitude benchmarks for use in reorientation maneuvers of the HEAO-B observatory are considered as a function of the maneuver angle, initial attitude uncertainties, and the pertinent celestial region. Success likelihoods in excess of 0.99 are predicted assuming anticipated gyro and star tracker error sources. The maneuver technique and guide star selection constraints are described in detail. The results presented are specialized numerically to the HEAO-B observatory. However, the analytical techniques developed are considered applicable to broader classes of spacecraft requiring celestial targeting.

Farrenkopf, R. L.↗

Modulation/demodulation techniques for satellite communications. Part 4: Appendices

The use of the Viterbi algorithm in a general context is examined. The generalized transfer function bounds are given which permit the following applications to be carried out: maximum likelihood demodulation of such bandwidth modulations as minimum-shift-keying and continuous phase frequency-shift-keying, demodulation of intersymbol interference and partial response signals, estimation and smoothing, and simultaneous phase synchronization, and data detection. Sufficient conditions are reviewed for tightening Chernoff and Rhattacharyya bounds.

Omura, J. K.↗

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Summary of DR4 and DR5 Data Products and Data Access

Two recent large data releases for the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), called DR4 and DR5, are available for public access. These data include temperature and polarization maps that cover nearly half the sky at arcminute resolution in three frequency bands; lensing maps and component-separated maps covering ∼2100 deg 2 of sky; derived power spectra and cosmological likelihoods; a catalog of over 4000 galaxy clusters; and supporting ancillary products including beam functions and masks. The data and products are described in a suite of ACT papers; here we provide a summary. In order to facilitate ease of access to these data, we present a set of Jupyter IPython notebooks developed to introduce users to DR4, DR5, and the tools needed to analyze these data. The data products (excluding simulations) and the set of notebooks are publicly available on the NASA Legacy Archive for Microwave Background Data Analysis; simulation products are available on the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center.

Maya Mallaby-Kay↗

Quadrature Based Neural Network Learning of Stochastic Hamiltonian Systems

Hamiltonian Neural Networks (HNNs) provide structure-preserving learning of Hamiltonian systems. In this paper, we extend HNNs to structure-preserving inversion of stochastic Hamiltonian systems (SHSs) from observational data. We propose the quadrature-based models according to the integral form of the SHSs’ solutions, where we denoise the loss-by-moment calculations of the solutions. The integral pattern of the models transforms the source of the essential learning error from the discrepancy between the modified Hamiltonian and the true Hamiltonian in the classical HNN models into that between the integrals and their quadrature approximations. This transforms the challenging task of deriving the relation between the modified and the true Hamiltonians from the (stochastic) Hamilton–Jacobi PDEs, into the one that only requires invoking results from the numerical quadrature theory. Meanwhile, denoising via moments calculations gives a simpler data fitting method than, e.g., via probability density fitting, which may imply better generalization ability in certain circumstances. Numerical experiments validate the proposed learning strategy on several concrete Hamiltonian systems. The experimental results show that both the learned Hamiltonian function and the predicted solution of our quadrature-based model are more accurate than that of the corrected symplectic HNN method on a harmonic oscillator, and the three-point Gaussian quadrature-based model produces higher accuracy in long-time prediction than the Kramers–Moyal method and the numerics-informed likelihood method on the stochastic Kubo oscillator as well as other two stochastic systems with non-polynomial Hamiltonian functions. Moreover, the Hamiltonian learning error εH arising from the Gaussian quadrature-based model is lower than that from Simpson’s quadrature-based model. These demonstrate the superiority of our approach in learning accuracy and long-time prediction ability compared to certain existing methods and exhibit its potential to improve learning accuracy via applying precise quadrature formulae.

Mathematics↗