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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling strength and failure variability due to porosity in additively manufactured metals

To model and quantify the variability in plasticity and failure of additively manufactured metals due to imperfections in their microstructure, we have developed uncertainty quantification methodology based on pseudo marginal likelihood and embedded variability techniques. We account for both the porosity resolvable in computed tomography scans of the initial material and the sub-threshold distribution of voids through a physically motivated model. Calibration of the model indicates that the sub-threshold population of defects dominates the yield and failure response. Finally, the technique also allows us to quantify the distribution of material parameters connected to microstructural variability created by the manufacturing process, and, thereby, make assessments of material quality and process control.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neural networks for parameter estimation in intractable models

The goal is to use deep learning models to estimate parameters in statistical models when standard likelihood estimation methods are computationally infeasible. For instance, inference for max-stable processes is exceptionally challenging even with small datasets, but simulation is straightforward. Data from model simulations are used to train deep neural networks and learn statistical parameters from max-stable models. The proposed neural network-based method provides a competitive alternative to current approaches, as demonstrated by considerable accuracy and computational time improvements. Finally, it serves as a proof of concept for deep learning in statistical parameter estimation and can be extended to other estimation problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A practical way to regularize unfolding of sharply varying spectra with low data statistics

Unfolding is a well-established tool in particle physics. However, a naive application of the standard regularization techniques to unfold the momentum spectrum of protons ejected in the process of negative muon nuclear capture led to a result exhibiting unphysical artifacts. A finite data sample limited the range in which unfolding can be performed, thus introducing a cutoff. A sharply falling “true” distribution led to low data statistics near the cutoff, which exacerbated the regularization bias and produced an unphysical spike in the resulting spectrum. An improved approach has been developed to address these issues and is illustrated using a toy model. The approach uses full Poisson likelihood of data, and produces a continuous, physically plausible, unfolded distribution. Here, the new technique has a broad applicability since sharply falling spectra are common.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Model correction and updating of a stochastic degradation model for failure prognostics of miter gates

Understanding the degradation of the quoin block is vital for failure prognostics in miter gates. Due to the complicated degradation mechanism, degradation models based on simplifications and assumptions cannot accurately describe the damage evolution. It is observed that small errors in a simplified degradation model can lead to a large discrepancy in the remaining useful life estimation attributed to error accumulation over time. Aiming to address this issue in failure prognostics, this paper presents a dynamic model correction framework for a simplified degradation model using strain measurements. In the proposed framework, a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) model is employed to compensate the missing physics in a simplified stochastic degradation model. Here, a maximum likelihood estimation method is developed to estimate the uncertain parameters of the simplified physics-based degradation model along with the unknown PCE model parameters using strain measurements as the observables. The updated damage degradation model is then applied to failure prognostics of a miter gate. Results of a case study show that the proposed approach can effectively improve the accuracy of failure prognostics in miter gates.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of off-shell Higgs boson production in the $H^*\rightarrow ZZ\rightarrow 4\ell$ decay channel using a neural simulation-based inference technique in 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of off-shell Higgs boson production in the $H^*\to ZZ\to 4\ell$ decay channel is presented. The measurement uses 140 fb −1 of proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV collected by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider and supersedes the previous result in this decay channel using the same dataset. The data analysis is performed using a neural simulation-based inference method, which builds per-event likelihood ratios using neural networks. The observed (expected) off-shell Higgs boson production signal strength in the $ZZ\to 4\ell$ decay channel at 68% CL is $0.87^{+0.75}_{-0.54}$ ($1.00^{+1.04}_{-0.95}$ ). The evidence for off-shell Higgs boson production using the $ZZ\to 4\ell$ decay channel has an observed (expected) significance of 2.5σ (1.3σ). The expected result represents a significant improvement relative to that of the previous analysis of the same dataset, which obtained an expected significance of 0.5σ. When combined with the most recent ATLAS measurement in the $ZZ\to 2\ell 2\nu$ decay channel, the evidence for off-shell Higgs boson production has an observed (expected) significance of 3.7σ (2.4σ). The off-shell measurements are combined with the measurement of on-shell Higgs boson production to obtain constraints on the Higgs boson total width. The observed (expected) value of the Higgs boson width at 68% CL is $4.3^{+2.7}_{-1.9}$ ($4.1^{+3.5}_{-3.4}$ ) MeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ptychographic phase retrieval by proximal algorithms

We derive a set of ptychography phase-retrieval iterative engines based on proximal algorithms originally developed in convex optimization theory, and discuss their connections with existing ones. The use of proximal operator creates a simple frame work that allows us to incorporate the effect of noise from a maximum-likelihood (ML) principle. We focus on three particular algorithms, namely proximal minimization, alternating direction method of multiplier and accelerated proximal gradient (APG). We benchmark their performance with numerical simulations, and discuss their optimal conditions for convergence and accuracy. An experimental dataset is used to demonstrate their effectiveness as well, in which case an array of cubic Au nanoparticles with a size of 50 nm is imaged. We show that with the presence of Poisson noise, a dataset with photon counts up to 10 4 at one detector pixel already requires ML-based methods to achieve a stable convergence. Among the three algorithms derived in this work, APG method is reported first time for its application in ptychographic reconstruction and shows superior performance in terms of both accuracy and convergence rate with a noisy dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Detection of translational noncrystallographic symmetry in Patterson functions

Detection of translational noncrystallographic symmetry (TNCS) can be critical for success in crystallographic phasing, particularly when molecular-replacement models are poor or anomalous phasing information is weak. If the correct TNCS is detected then expected intensity factors for each reflection can be refined, so that the maximum-likelihood functions underlying molecular replacement and single-wavelength anomalous dispersion use appropriate structure-factor normalization and variance terms. Here, an analysis of a curated database of protein structures from the Protein Data Bank to investigate how TNCS manifests in the Patterson function is described. These studies informed an algorithm for the detection of TNCS, which includes a method for detecting the number of vectors involved in any commensurate modulation (the TNCS order). The algorithm generates a ranked list of possible TNCS associations in the asymmetric unit for exploration during structure solution.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Absorptive Weak Plume Detection on Gaussian and Non-Gaussian Background Clutter

For additive signals on Gaussian clutter, the optimal detector is a linear matched filter that is adapted to the known signal and the covariance of the background. This adaptive matched filter is widely used for gas-phase plume detection, even though the effect of the plume on the background is not strictly additive. Here, a derivation of the matched filter for a strictly absorptive plume produces, in the weak plume limit, a quadratic filter. This quadratic matched filter is extended in two ways: an elliptically-contoured multivariate t distribution is used to generalize the Gaussian background clutter, and a generalized likelihood ratio test detector is derived to extend applicability to stronger plumes. In addition to detectors whose purpose is to identify presence versus absence of a plume, expressions are also derived for estimating plume strength. The performance of these various detectors is evaluated by implanting simulated plume into background images that are either real hyperspectral images or simulated images based on different (Gaussian, multivariate t, and lognormal) clutter distributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Structure-aware Initialization via Numerical Continuation and Informed Priors

Scientific machine learning (SciML) often operates in ill-conditioned, weakly identifiable regimes due to limited data or indirect observations. In such settings, optimization and inference are highly sensitive to the starting point, making initialization--often under-reported--a consequential degree of freedom. Random initialization is not a neutral default as it induces an implicit prior over candidate solutions and can systematically bias the result, producing large run-to-run variability. Here, we formalize this view by treating initialization as a hidden confounder in SciML and develop a unifying theory for structure-aware initialization via numerical continuation, constructing warm starts from related problem instances. Across representative tasks, including physics-informed neural networks, maximum likelihood estimation, and variational inference, warm starts have been shown to consistently reduce optimization effort and improve reliability.

Data integrity↗
DOE OSTI2021

Disaggregating Customer-Level Behind-the-Meter PV Generation Using Smart Meter Data and Solar Exemplars

Customer-level rooftop photovoltaic (PV) has been widely integrated into distribution systems. In most cases, PVs are installed behind-the-meter (BTM), and only the net demand is recorded. Therefore, the native demand and PV generation are unknown to utilities. Separating native demand and solar generation from net demand is critical for improving grid-edge observability. In this paper, a novel approach is proposed for disaggregating customer-level BTM PV generation using low-resolution but widely available hourly smart meter data. The proposed approach exploits the strong correlation between monthly nocturnal and diurnal native demands and the high similarity among PV generation profiles. First, a joint probability density function (PDF) of monthly nocturnal and diurnal native demands is constructed for customers without PVs, using Gaussian mixture modeling (GMM). Deviation from the constructed PDF is utilized to probabilistically assess the monthly solar generation of customers with PVs. Then, to identify hourly BTM solar generation for these customers, their estimated monthly solar generation is decomposed into an hourly timescale; to do this, we have proposed a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE)-based technique that utilizes hourly typical solar exemplars. Leveraging the strong monthly native demand correlation and high PV generation similarity enhances our approach's robustness against the volatility of customers’ hourly load and enables highly-accurate disaggregation. Furthermore, the proposed approach has been verified using real native demand and PV generation data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating Sparse Direct Effects in Multivariate Regression With the Spike-and-Slab LASSO

The multivariate regression interpretation of the Gaussian chain graph model simultaneously parametrizes (i) the direct effects of p predictors on q outcomes and (ii) the residual partial covariances between pairs of outcomes. We introduce a new method for fitting sparse versions of these models with spike-and-slab LASSO (SSL) priors. We develop an Expectation Conditional Maximization algorithm to obtain sparse estimates of the p × q matrix of direct effects and the q × q residual precision matrix. Our algorithm iteratively solves a sequence of penalized maximum likelihood problems with self-adaptive penalties that gradually filter out negligible regression coefficients and partial covariances. Because it adaptively penalizes individual model parameters, our method is seen to outperform fixed-penalty competitors on simulated data. We establish the posterior contraction rate for our model, buttressing our method’s excellent empirical performance with strong theoretical guarantees. Using our method, we estimated the direct effects of diet and residence type on the composition of the gut microbiome of elderly adults.

EM algorithm↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Robust Segmented Mixed Effect Regression Model for Baseline Electricity Consumption Forecasting

Renewable energy production has been surging around the world in recent years. To mitigate the increasing uncertainty and intermittency of the renewable generation, proactive demand response algorithms and programs are proposed and developed to further improve the utilization of load flexibility and increase the efficiency of power system operation. One of the biggest challenges to efficient control and operation of demand response resources is how to forecast the baseline electricity consumption and estimate the load impact from demand response resources accurately. In this paper, we propose a mixed effect segmented regression model and a new robust estimate for forecasting the baseline electricity consumption in Southern California, USA, by combining the ideas of random effect regression model, segmented regression model, and the least trimmed squares estimate. Since the log-likelihood of the considered model is not differentiable at breakpoints, we propose a new backfitting algorithm to estimate the unknown parameters. The estimation performance of the new estimation procedure has been demonstrated with both simulation studies and the real data application for the electric load baseline forecasting in Southern California.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Revised and New Proper Motions for Confirmed and Candidate Milky Way Dwarf Galaxies

A new derivation of systemic proper motions of Milky Way satellites is presented and applied to 59 confirmed or candidate dwarf galaxy satellites using Gaia Data Release 2. This constitutes all known Milky Way dwarf galaxies (and likely candidates) as of 2020 May, except for the Magellanic Clouds, the Canis Major and Hydra 1 stellar overdensities, and the tidally disrupting Bootes III and Sagittarius dwarf galaxies. We derive systemic proper motions for the first time for Indus 1, DES J0225+0304, Cetus 2, Pictor 2, and Leo T, but note that the latter three rely on photometry that is of poorer quality than that of the rest of the sample. We cannot resolve a signal for Bootes 4, Cetus 3, Indus 2, Pegasus 3, or Virgo 1. Our method is inspired by the maximum likelihood approach of Pace & Li and examines simultaneously the spatial, color–magnitude, and proper motion distribution of sources. Systemic proper motions are derived without the need to identify confirmed radial velocity members, although the proper motions of these stars, where available, are incorporated into the analysis through a prior on the model. The associated uncertainties on the systemic proper motions are on average a factor of ∼1.4 smaller than existing literature values. Analysis of the implied membership distribution of the satellites suggests that we accurately identify member stars with a contamination rate lower than 1 in 20.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Orbits and Masses of Binaries from Speckle Interferometry at SOAR

We present results from Speckle inteferometric observations of 15 visual binaries and one double-line spectroscopic binary, carried out with the HRCam Speckle camera of the SOAR 4.1 m telescope. These systems were observed as a part of an on-going survey to characterize the binary population in the solar vicinity, out to a distance of 250 pc. We obtained orbital elements and mass sums for our sample of visual binaries. The orbits were computed using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm that delivers maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters, as well as posterior probability density functions that allow us to evaluate their uncertainty. Their periods cover a range from 5 yr to more than 500 yr; and their spectral types go from early A to mid M, implying total system masses from slightly more than 4M{sub ⊙} down to 0.2M {sub ⊙}. They are located at distances between approximately 12 and 200 pc, mostly at low Galactic latitude. For the double-line spectroscopic binary YSC8, we present the first combined astrometric/radial-velocity orbit resulting from a self-consistent fit, leading to individual component masses of 0.897 ± 0.027 M {sub ⊙} and 0.857 ± 0.026 M {sub ⊙}; and an orbital parallax of 26.61 ± 0.29 mas, which compares very well with the Gaia DR2 trigonometric parallax (26.55 ± 0.27 mas). In combination with published photometry and trigonometric parallaxes, we place our objects on an H-R diagram and discuss their evolutionary status. We also present a thorough analysis of the precision and consistency of the photometry available for them.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

An Automated Probabilistic Asteroid Prediscovery Pipeline

We present an automated and probabilistic method to make prediscovery detections of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) in archival survey images, with the goal of reducing orbital uncertainty immediately after discovery. We refit the Minor Planet Center's astrometry and propagate the full six-parameter covariance to survey epochs to define search regions. We build low-threshold source catalogs for viable images and evaluate every detected source in a search region as a candidate prediscovery. We eliminate false positives by refitting a new orbit to each candidate and probabilistically linking detections across images using a likelihood ratio. Applied to the Zwicky Transient Facility's (ZTF) imaging, we identify approximately 3000 recently discovered NEAs with prediscovery potential, including a doubling of the observational arc for about 500. We use archival ZTF imaging to make prediscovery detections of the potentially hazardous asteroid 2021 DG1, extending its arc by 2.5 yr and reducing future apparition sky plane uncertainty from many degrees to arcseconds. We also recover 2025 FU24 nearly 7 yr before its first known observation, when its sky plane uncertainty covers hundreds of square degrees across thousands of ZTF images. The method is survey agnostic and scalable, enabling rapid orbit refinement for new discoveries from Rubin, NEO Surveyor, and NEOMIR.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

BICEP/Keck. XX. Component-separated Maps of the Polarized Cosmic Microwave Background and Thermal Dust Emission Using Planck and BICEP/Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season

We present component-separated polarization maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and Galactic thermal dust emission, derived using data from the BICEP/Keck experiments through the 2018 observing season and Planck. By employing a maximum-likelihood method that utilizes observing matrices, we produce unbiased maps of the CMB and dust signals. We outline the computational challenges and demonstrate an efficient implementation of the component map estimator. We show methods to compute and characterize power spectra of these maps, opening up an alternative way to infer the tensor-to-scalar ratio from our data. We compare the results of this map-based separation method with the baseline BICEP/Keck analysis. Our analysis demonstrates consistency between the two methods, finding an 84% correlation between the pipelines.

cosmic inflation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Remote Radiation Sensing Using Aerial and Ground Platforms

Remote sensing of ionizing radiation has a significant role in waste management, nuclear material management and nonproliferation, and radiation safety. Robotic platforms can surpass the number of tasks that are achieved by humans. With this technique, the operator's radiation exposure can be decreased. Remote sensing allows for the evaluation and monitoring of radiological contamination. Gamma-ray and neutron sensors were integrated onto the robotic platforms. This approach allows for the radiation sensor data to be dynamically tracked and mapped thus enabling further analysis of the radiation flux in temporal and spatial domains. The goal is to complete scheduled tasks while the robot is being irradiated. To achieve this, electronic components must be shielded and radiation hardened. CZT Detector: Cadmium Zinc Telluride (CZT) detector technology has been a promising solution for gamma-ray and x-ray measurements. Detector data is transferred to the Odroid minicomputer that controls and powers the module via the USB. Robot Operating System (ROS) was utilized for data acquisition and data fusion. The Mariscotti method was employed for the spectrum analysis. A function was programmed in ROS for the automatic identification of photopeaks. CLYC Detector: A Cs{sub 2}LiYCl{sub 6}:Ce{sup 3+} (CLYC) detector was used for simultaneous medium-resolution gamma-ray measurements and neutron counting. A 2.54 cm diameter photomultiplier tube (PMT) was equipped with a high voltage supply and a miniature digitizer. Gamma-ray excitation: fast core-to-valence luminescence (CVL) with 1 ns decay constant, and prompt Ce{sup 3+} emission with 50 ns decay constant. Neutron excitation: slow cerium self-trapped excitation (Ce{sup 3+} STE), 1000 ns decay constant. Radiation Source Localization: Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and gradient-based methods were used to locate the position of a radiation source based on measured radiation intensities. Multi-Particle Transport Code FLUKA: Estimation of radiation damage of the electronic components is important in order to optimize the robot's operational time while it is irradiated. Displacement per atom (DPA) represents the radiation damage in materials exposed to the ionizing radiation. Various shielding layers of different thickness t were analyzed (< 5% statistical error). The model of the controller of the UAS was designed in FLUKA. Conclusion: CZT and CLYC detectors were integrated onto the robotic platforms. Radiation source localization and contour mapping using robotic platforms were studied. Functions for data analysis and fusion were developed in ROS. FLUKA code was utilized to analyze DPA values. Layers of low-density and high-density materials were used to shield the UAS electronics.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exchange‐Interaction‐Like Behavior in Ferroelectric Bilayers

Abstract Interlayer coupling in materials, such as exchange interactions at the interface between an antiferromagnet and a ferromagnet, can produce exotic phenomena not present in the parent materials. While such interfacial coupling in magnetic systems is widely studied, there is considerably less work on analogous electric counterparts (i.e., akin to electric “exchange‐bias‐like” or “exchange‐spring‐like” interactions between two polar materials) despite the likelihood that such effects can also engender new features associated with anisotropic electric dipole alignment. Here, electric analogs of such exchange interactions are reported, and their physical origins are explained for bilayers of in‐plane polarized Pb 1−x Sr x TiO 3 ferroelectrics. Variation of the strontium content and thickness of the layers provides for deterministic control over the switching properties of the bilayer system resulting in phenomena analogous to an exchange‐spring interaction and, leveraging added control of these interactions with an electric field, the ability to realize multistate‐memory function. Such observations not only hold technological promise for ferroelectrics and multiferroics but also extend the similarities between ferromagnetic and ferroelectric materials to include the manifestation of exchange‐interaction‐like phenomena.

Kavle, Pravin↗