SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “lifetime prediction models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2011

Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties - 2010

Uncertainties in estimating health risks from galactic cosmic rays greatly limit space mission lengths and potential risk mitigation evaluations. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure-induced death and protects against uncertainties using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals in the projection model. Revisions to this model for lifetime cancer risks from space radiation and new estimates of model uncertainties are described here. We review models of space environments and transport code predictions of organ exposures, and characterize uncertainties in these descriptions. We summarize recent analysis of low linear energy transfer radio-epidemiology data, including revision to Japanese A-bomb survivor dosimetry, longer follow-up of exposed cohorts, and reassessments of dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factors. We compare these projections and uncertainties with earlier estimates. Current understanding of radiation quality effects and recent data on factors of relative biological effectiveness and particle track structure are reviewed. Recent radiobiology experiment results provide new information on solid cancer and leukemia risks from heavy ions. We also consider deviations from the paradigm of linearity at low doses of heavy ions motivated by non-targeted effects models. New findings and knowledge are used to revise the NASA risk projection model for space radiation cancer risks.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Shape evolution in even-mass 98-104 Zr isotopes via lifetime measurements using the $\gamma \gamma $-coincidence technique

The Zirconium (Z = 40) isotopic chain has attracted interest for more than four decades. The abrupt lowering of the energy of the first 2 + state and the increase in the transition strength B(E2; 2$^+_1$ →0$^+_1$) going from 98 Zr to 100 Zr has been the first example of “quantum phase transition” in nuclear shapes, which has few equivalents in the nuclear chart. Although a multitude of experiments have been performed to measure nuclear properties related to nuclear shapes and collectivity in the region, none of the measured lifetimes were obtained using the Recoil Distance Doppler Shift method in the γγ-coincidence mode where a gate on the direct feeding transition of the state of interest allows a strict control of systematical errors. Here this work reports the results of lifetime measurements for the first yrast excited states in 98-104 Zr carried out to extract reduced transition probabilities. The new lifetime values in γγ-coincidence and γ-single mode are compared with the results of former experiments. Recent predictions of the Interacting Boson Model with Configuration Mixing, the Symmetry Conserving Configuration Mixing model based on the Hartree–Fock–Bogoliubov approach and the Monte Carlo Shell Model are presented and compared with the experimental data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2009

Bayes Analysis and Reliability Implications of Stress-Rupture Testing a Kevlar/Epoxy COPV Using Temperature and Pressure Acceleration

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) that have survived a long service time under pressure generally must be recertified before service is extended. Flight certification is dependent on the reliability analysis to quantify the risk of stress rupture failure in existing flight vessels. Full certification of this reliability model would require a statistically significant number of lifetime tests to be performed and is impractical given the cost and limited flight hardware for certification testing purposes. One approach to confirm the reliability model is to perform a stress rupture test on a flight COPV. Currently, testing of such a Kevlar49 (Dupont)/epoxy COPV is nearing completion. The present paper focuses on a Bayesian statistical approach to analyze the possible failure time results of this test and to assess the implications in choosing between possible model parameter values that in the past have had significant uncertainty. The key uncertain parameters in this case are the actual fiber stress ratio at operating pressure, and the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime; the former has been uncertain due to ambiguities in interpreting the original and a duplicate burst test. The latter has been uncertain due to major differences between COPVs in the database and the actual COPVs in service. Any information obtained that clarifies and eliminates uncertainty in these parameters will have a major effect on the predicted reliability of the service COPVs going forward. The key result is that the longer the vessel survives, the more likely the more optimistic stress ratio model is correct. At the time of writing, the resulting effect on predicted future reliability is dramatic, increasing it by about one "nine," that is, reducing the predicted probability of failure by an order of magnitude. However, testing one vessel does not change the uncertainty on the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime since testing several vessels would be necessary.

Phoenix, S. Leigh↗

DOE OSTI2024

MODELING AND METHOD FOR OPTICAL PERFORMANCE OF A RECEIVER COATING AND ITS DEGRADATION DUE TO OPERATION

The optical properties of the coating used on a concentrated solar power (CSP)’s receiver directly impact the performance of the power plant. Receiver coatings are designed to absorb as much heat as possible and transfer it to the circulating fluid. Over time, the absorptivity of the receiver coating degrades due to environmental and operational conditions. This project aims to (1) create a test apparatus that allows coatings to undergo accelerated lifetime testing under conditions that mimic what the coating will experience on-tower; and (2) develop a mathematical model that based on the test data predicts absorptivity over time. To create the mathematical model, samples of BrightSource Energy’s Gen1 and Gen2 coatings were tested first looking at individual failure modes (such as high temperature cycling) and then for combined failure modes in the newly developed apparatus. In addition to taking optical measurements, the samples were destroyed to allow for metalogical evaluation to understand what was happening on a microscopic level. Pre-existing models from the literature that describe accelerated testing as well as individual phenomena observed in the coating were then combined to create the model. Additionally, the Gen2 and Gen3 coatings are being testing at the Plataforma Solar de Almería (PSA) facility in Almeria, Spain to confirm that the apparatus test results are similar to those received on-sun. (PSA’s facility closely mimics on-tower conditions). The goal is to enable industry players to test coatings using the new apparatus, gather absorptivity measurements (without needing to destroy samples), and input the information into the model to determine how the coating will perform over time, thus allowing the optical performance of coatings to be compared even before they are used on-tower. The model will be publicly available by the end of the project (currently projected as December 2024).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

The benefits of diligence: how precise are predicted gravitational wave spectra in models with phase transitions?

Models of particle physics that feature phase transitions typically provide predictions for stochastic gravitational wave signals at future detectors and such predictions are used to delineate portions of the model parameter space that can be constrained. The question is: how precise are such predictions? Uncertainties enter in the calculation of the macroscopic thermal parameters and the dynamics of the phase transition itself. We calculate such uncertainties with increasing levels of sophistication in treating the phase transition dynamics. Currently, the highest level of diligence corresponds to careful treatments of the source lifetime; mean bubble separation; going beyond the bag model approximation in solving the hydrodynamics equations and explicitly calculating the fraction of energy in the fluid from these equations rather than using a fit; and including fits for the energy lost to vorticity modes and reheating effects. The lowest level of diligence incorporates none of these effects. We compute the percolation and nucleation temperatures, the mean bubble separation, the fluid velocity, and ultimately the gravitational wave spectrum corresponding to the level of highest diligence for three explicit examples: SMEFT, a dark sector Higgs model, and the real singlet-extended Standard Model (xSM). In each model, we contrast different levels of diligence in the calculation and find that the difference in the final predicted signal can be several orders of magnitude. Our results indicate that calculating the gravitational wave spectrum for particle physics models and deducing precise constraints on the parameter space of such models continues to remain very much a work in progress and warrants care.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adhesively Bonded Copper and Polyimide for Flexible Printed Circuit Boards: A Data-Driven Degradation Study Under Accelerated Aging

The long-term durability of polyimide laminated adhesive based flexible printed circuit boards (PCBs) is critical to the microelectronics industry. The interface of the adhesive layer binding the polyimide and copper layers is particularly vulnerable since decreased bonding strength can lead to deadhesion, performance loss, and premature device failure. Here, in this study, adhesive-bonded polyimide and copper samples are subjected to 1000 h of damp heat exposure (85 °C/85%RH) to evaluate the impact of moisture and copper inclusion on the adhesive bonding performance. Significant copper diffusion through the adhesive layer is observed, which, combined with moisture uptake, is found to substantially weaken interfacial adhesion in copper-containing samples, thereby reducing device lifetime. Observed surface and bulk material changes are correlated to adhesion strength using the network structural equation modeling (netSEM) approach, resulting in a robust predictive model of performance degradation based on measurable materials properties.

Chemistry↗

NASA NTRS1980

Shuttle program. Solar activity prediction of sunspot numbers, predicted solar radio flux

A solar activity prediction technique for monthly mean sunspot numbers over a period of approximately ten years from February 1979 to January 1989 is presented. This includes the predicted maximum epoch of solar cycle 21, approximately January 1980, and the predicted minimum epoch of solar cycle 22, approximately March 1987. Additionally, the solar radio flux 10.7 centimeter smooth values are included for the same time frame using a smooth 13 month empirical relationship. The incentive for predicting solar activity values is the requirement of solar flux data as input to upper atmosphere density models utilized in mission planning satellite orbital lifetime studies.

Johnson, G. G.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Advanced Finite Element Modeling of Low Cycle Fatigue Crack Growth

This document (a viewgraph presentation) assumes a crack-like defect of a size which may be missed in inspection will exist in most critical location of any critical structure or component. Flaw existence assumption is usually, but not always, conservative based on past experiences in NASA and knowledge of manufacturing processes. Cyclic, environmental, and sustained loads used to generate stresses on models. Fracture Mechanics analysis used to predict crack growth and residual strength. Must show that defective structure will still provide four times required mission lifetime. Special exemptions cover redundant structures, low risk parts, etc. Assessments require specialized software tools, experienced analysts, and reliable material crack growth rate test database.

Gregg, Wayne↗

NASA NTRS2022

Low-Earth Orbit Trajectory Optimization in the Presence of Atmospheric Uncertainty

The previous 20 to 25 years have seen a tremendous increase in space exploration, and with that an increase in the level of logistics planning needed to ensure mission success. For spacecraft that are designed to be periodically re-supplied, a key logistics consumable is propellant, as it constitutes the greatest up-mass on re-supply vehicles. A trajectory design strategy is therefore desired that minimizes propellant usage in order to ease the demand for propellant re-supply missions. This thesis develops such a strategy in three stages, and uses the International Space Station (ISS) as its testbed, as no other LEO spacecraft is more challenging from a space logistics standpoint. First, the ISS trajectory planning problem is formulated as a constrained burn optimization problem assuming a deterministic atmosphere. The cost function is total ∆v, with constraints imposed on longitude of ascending viii node (LAN) and semi-major axis (SMA) altitude. Analytic derivatives are constructed for both the cost and constraints, which are necessary given the 6-week to 2-year time frames being considered. A gradient-based optimizer is then utilized to find locally-optimal solutions to real-world ISS trajectory planning problems. Second, atmospheric uncertainty is addressed by constructing a probabilistic model of space weather data using Gaussian Processes (GPs). Bayesian inference is performed using the GP model to generate mean and covariance estimates for space weather predictions, whose pedigree is assessed against test data. The predictions are then mapped into atmospheric density via the analytic Jacchia-Roberts density model, and the effect of space weather uncertainty on orbital lifetime is examined. Third, an ISS burn execution uncertainty model is developed. This model, along with the space weather uncertainty model, are deployed in a linear covariance analysis to ascertain their combined effect on LAN and SMA altitude dispersions. The deterministic constraints from the original problem are re-formulated as stochastic constraints, where now the constraint uncertainty interval is required to fall within specified bounds. An updated optimization framework is constructed using the original ∆v cost function along with the stochastic constraints to solve the trajectory optimization problem under atmospheric uncertainty. Finally, the complete architecture is summarized for deployment in an operational setting.

Trajectory Optimization↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the reduction in cavitation-induced erosion damage in the Spallation Neutron Source mercury target by means of small-bubble gas injection

Here, a model developed to represent the progress of erosion damage in liquid-metal spallation target vessels was modified to incorporate the effect of gas injection on the erosion rate. The liquid mercury target system for the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory now operates with helium gas injection to reduce target vessel fatigue stress and cavitation-induced erosion damage. Erosion damage is a primary degradation phenomenon affecting the service life of SNS target vessels, and cavitation mitigation techniques, such as small-bubble gas injection, have been implemented to reduce damage and extend target lifetimes. Erosion depths in samples removed from SNS targets after operation were measured using laser line scanning. These measurements confirmed that gas injection reduced erosion damage. However, quantifying the damage reduction due to gas injection was complicated by variations in lifetime, power, and gas injection rates between different targets. In this study, the operating power and gas injection rate of targets were incorporated into an erosion damage prediction model to quantify their effects on erosion damage reduction. Values of a power scaling factor, β, were calculated by comparing modeled with measured erosion damage. These values indicate that the use of gas injection at the SNS reduced damage to a level equivalent to operating targets without gas injection at 35–47% of the actual beam power. To account for the gas injection effect on the cavitation damage, a simple exponential form based on analysis of the scaling factor β was developed to incorporate the gas rate history with a scaling factor γ in the erosion damage modeling.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS1991

Test of the decaying dark matter hypothesis using the Hopkins Ultraviolet Telescope

Sciama's hypothesis that the dark matter associated with galaxies, galaxy clusters, and the intergalactic medium consists of tau neutrinos of rest mass 28-30 eV whose decay generates ultraviolet photons of energy roughly 14-15 eV, has been tested using the Hopkins Ultraviolet Telescope flows aboard the Space Shuttle Columbia. A straightforward application of Sciama's model predicts that a spectral line from neutrino decay photons should be observed from the rich galaxy cluster Abell 665 with an SNR of about 30. No such emission was detected. For neutrinos in the mass range 27.2-32.1 eV, the observations set a lower lifetime limit significantly greater than Sciama's model requires.

Davidsen, A. F.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Probabilistic Material Strength Degradation Model for Inconel 718 Components Subjected to High Temperature, High-Cycle and Low-Cycle Mechanical Fatigue, Creep and Thermal Fatigue Effects

The development of methodology for a probabilistic material strength degradation is described. The probabilistic model, in the form of a postulated randomized multifactor equation, provides for quantification of uncertainty in the lifetime material strength of aerospace propulsion system components subjected to a number of diverse random effects. This model is embodied in the computer program entitled PROMISS, which can include up to eighteen different effects. Presently, the model includes five effects that typically reduce lifetime strength: high temperature, high-cycle mechanical fatigue, low-cycle mechanical fatigue, creep and thermal fatigue. Results, in the form of cumulative distribution functions, illustrated the sensitivity of lifetime strength to any current value of an effect. In addition, verification studies comparing predictions of high-cycle mechanical fatigue and high temperature effects with experiments are presented. Results from this limited verification study strongly supported that material degradation can be represented by randomized multifactor interaction models.

Bast, Callie C.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Continuum Damage Mechanics Modeling of High-Temperature Flaw Propagation: Application to Creep Crack Growth In 316H Standardized Specimens and Nuclear Reactor Components

Predicting creep crack growth (CCG) of flaws found during operation in high-temperature alloy components is essential for assessing the remaining lifetime of those components. While defect assessment procedures are available for this purpose in design codes, these are limited in their range of applicability. This study assesses the application of a local damage-based finite-element methodology as a more general technique for the prediction of CCG at high temperatures on a variety of structural configurations. Numerical results for stainless steel 316H, which are validated against experimental data, show the promise of this approach. This integration of continuum damage mechanics (CDM) based methodologies, together with adequate inelastic models, into assessment procedures can therefore inform the characterization of CCG under complex operating conditions, while avoiding excessive conservatism. This article shows that such modeling frameworks can be calibrated to experimental data and used to demonstrate that the degree of tri-axiality ahead of a growing creep crack affects its rate of growth. The framework is also successfully employed in characterizing CCG in a realistic reactor pressure vessel geometry under an arbitrary loading condition. These results are particularly relevant to the nuclear power industry for defect assessment and inspections as part of codified practices of structural components with flaws in high-temperature reactors.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1985

Turbine airfoil deposition models and their hot corrosion implications

This research project deals with the prediction of single- and multi-component salt(-solution) deposition, flow and oxide dissolution and their effects on the lifetime of turbine blades. Goals include rationalizing and helping to predict corrosion patterns on operational gas turbine (GT) rotor blades and stator vanes, and ultimately providing some of the tools required to design laboratory simulators and future corrosion resistant high-performance engines. Necessary background developments are reviewed. Results and tentative conclusions for single species (Na sub 2 SO sub 4 (1)) condensation, binary salt-solution (Na sub 2 SO sub 4-K sub 2 SO sub 4) condensation, and burner-rig testing of alloy materials are outlined.

Rosner, D. E.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Solar flux forecasting using mutual information with an optimal delay

Solar flux F(sub 10.7) directly affects the atmospheric density, thereby changing the lifetime and prediction of satellite orbits. For this reason, accurate forecasting of F(sub 10.7) is crucial for orbit determination of spacecraft. Our attempts to model and forecast F(sub 10.7) uncovered highly entangled dynamics. We concluded that the general lack of predictability in solar activity arises from its nonlinear nature. Nonlinear dynamics allow us to predict F(sub 10.7) more accurately than is possible using stochastic methods for time scales shorter than a characteristic horizon, and with about the same accuracy as using stochastic techniques when the forecasted data exceed this horizon. The forecast horizon is a function of two dynamical invariants: the attractor dimension and the Lyapunov exponent. In recent years, estimation of the attractor dimension reconstructed from a time series has become an important tool in data analysis. In calculating the invariants of the system, the first necessary step is the reconstruction of the attractor for the system from the time-delayed values of the time series. The choice of the time delay is critical for this reconstruction. For an infinite amount of noise-free data, the time delay can, in principle, be chosen almost arbitrarily. However, the quality of the phase portraits produced using the time-delay technique is determined by the value chosen for the delay time. Fraser and Swinney have shown that a good choice for this time delay is the one suggested by Shaw, which uses the first local minimum of the mutual information rather than the autocorrelation function to determine the time delay. This paper presents a refinement of this criterion and applies the refined technique to solar flux data to produce a forecast of the solar activity.

Ashrafi, S.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Full Scale 3D Computational Model of the Industrial -Scale Coal Fired Boiler Performance for Temperature Sensor Installation Guidance

Abstract Nearly 30% of the electricity is generated by using coal as the primary fuel in the US. One of the major concerns in coal-fired power plants is the failure of boiler tubes that leads to unscheduled maintenance and has a huge economical and societal impact. High temperature flue gas along with ash pass over the boiler tubes, which over time leads to tube failure. Therefore, developing temperature sensors for harsh environments and install them for temperature sensing and boiler tube lifetime prediction is an urgent need. On the side of sensor development, the location of the sensor installation is important for stable sensing performance and easy calibration. In this study, computational fluid dynamics and heat transfer modeling are adopted to establish a full-scale 3-dimensional model of a coal-fired boiler to investigate the flue gas temperature distribution within the boiler and identify the proper locations for sensor installation. We proposed three criteria to select the temperature sensor installation location: (1) select the boiler tube panel away from the sidewalls, (2) select the boiler tube section closer to the top wall of the boiler; and (3) select the boiler tube on the back of the boiler panel (not directly facing the flue gas flow). In these regions, the flue gas temperature is stable, providing an ideal environment for stable temperature sensing and calibration.

Gupta, Tanuj↗

NASA NTRS1999

International Low-Earth-Orbit Spacecraft Materials Test Program Initiated for Better Prediction of Durability and Performance

Spacecraft in low Earth orbit (LEO) are subjected to many components of the environment, which can cause them to degrade much more rapidly than intended and greatly shorten their functional life. The atomic oxygen, ultraviolet radiation, and cross contamination present in LEO can affect sensitive surfaces such as thermal control paints, multilayer insulation, solar array surfaces, and optical surfaces. The LEO Spacecraft Materials Test (LEO-SMT) program is being conducted to assess the effects of simulated LEO exposure on current spacecraft materials to increase understanding of LEO degradation processes as well as to enable the prediction of in-space performance and durability. Using ground-based simulation facilities to test the durability of materials currently flying in LEO will allow researchers to compare the degradation evidenced in the ground-based facilities with that evidenced on orbit. This will allow refinement of ground laboratory test systems and the development of algorithms to predict the durability and performance of new materials in LEO from ground test results. Accurate predictions based on ground tests could reduce development costs and increase reliability. The wide variety of national and international materials being tested represent materials being functionally used on spacecraft in LEO. The more varied the types of materials tested, the greater the probability that researchers will develop and validate predictive models for spacecraft long-term performance and durability. Organizations that are currently participating in the program are ITT Research Institute (USA), Lockheed Martin (USA), MAP (France), SOREQ Nuclear Research Center (Israel), TNO Institute of Applied Physics (The Netherlands), and UBE Industries, Ltd. (Japan). These represent some of the major suppliers of thermal control and sensor materials currently flying in LEO. The participants provide materials that are exposed to selected levels of atomic oxygen, vacuum ultraviolet radiation, contamination, or synergistic combined environments at the NASA Lewis Research Center. Changes in characteristics that could affect mission performance or lifetime are then measured. These characteristics include changes in mass, solar absorptance, and thermal emittance. The durability of spacecraft materials from U.S. suppliers is then compared with those of materials from other participating countries. Lewis will develop and validate performance and durability prediction models using this ground data and available space data. NASA welcomes the opportunity to consider additional international participants in this program, which should greatly aid future spacecraft designers as they select materials for LEO missions.

Rutledge, Sharon K.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Photoionization of seeded combustion products as a method of enhancing the efficiency of magnetohydrodynamic power generators

Here, in this study, we performed an experimental and computational investigation into the feasibility of utilizing photoionization to enhance the electrical conductivity of seeded oxy-fuel combustion products and improve the performance of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) power generators. We applied a variety of optical and microwave diagnostics to study the ionization and recombination processes of potassium excited by an excimer laser in a high-velocity oxy-fuel free jet. Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations were performed to model the thermophysical properties and species densities of the free jet. The CFD results were validated with position-dependent potassium concentration measurements. Electron recombination exponential lifetimes were measured through time-resolved microwave transmission. The experimental electron lifetimes were compared with lifetimes calculated from CFD-predicted species densities and literature recombination rates. It was determined that K + or O 2 are the most likely recombination partners for photoionized electrons. Time-resolved fluorescence measurements provided evidence of an ionization pathway involving a two-photon ionization of KOH . Finally, a zero-dimensional chemical kinetic model was developed to assess the fundamental viability of inducing a non-equilibrium electron population to provide a net energy return in combustion-driven MHD power generators. We determined that a high energy return is feasible for targeting electrode boundary layers with ultraviolet photoionization. We also found that photoionization could potentially lower the required temperature of the bulk gas flow.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗