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At least 271 records · Page 15

Probabilistic material degradation model for aerospace materials subjected to high temperature, mechanical and thermal fatigue, and creep

A probabilistic general material strength degradation model has been developed for structural components of aerospace propulsion systems subjected to diverse random effects. The model has been implemented in two FORTRAN programs, PROMISS (Probabilistic Material Strength Simulator) and PROMISC (Probabilistic Material Strength Calibrator). PROMISS calculates the random lifetime strength of an aerospace propulsion component due to as many as eighteen diverse random effects. Results are presented in the form of probability density functions and cumulative distribution functions of lifetime strength. PROMISC calibrates the model by calculating the values of empirical material constants.

Boyce, L.↗

In-Situ Measurement of Hall Thruster Erosion Using a Fiber Optic Regression Probe

One potential life-limiting mechanism in a Hall thruster is the erosion of the ceramic material comprising the discharge channel. This is especially true for missions that require long thrusting periods and can be problematic for lifetime qualification, especially when attempting to qualify a thruster by analysis rather than a test lasting the full duration of the mission. In addition to lifetime, several analytical and numerical models include electrode erosion as a mechanism contributing to enhanced transport properties. However, there is still a great deal of dispute over the importance of erosion to transport in Hall thrusters. The capability to perform an in-situ measurement of discharge channel erosion is useful in addressing both the lifetime and transport concerns. An in-situ measurement would allow for real-time data regarding the erosion rates at different operating points, providing a quick method for empirically anchoring any analysis geared towards lifetime qualification. Erosion rate data over a thruster's operating envelope would also be useful in the modeling of the detailed physics inside the discharge chamber. A recent fundamental sensor development effort has led to a novel regression, erosion, and ablation sensor technology (REAST). The REAST sensor allows for measurement of real-time surface erosion rates at a discrete surface location. The sensor was tested using a linear Hall thruster geometry, which served as a means of producing plasma erosion of a ceramic discharge chamber. The mass flow rate, discharge voltage, and applied magnetic field strength could be varied, allowing for erosion measurements over a broad thruster operating envelope. Results are presented demonstrating the ability of the REAST sensor to capture not only the insulator erosion rates but also changes in these rates as a function of the discharge parameters.

Polzink, Kurt A.↗

In-Situ Measurement of Hall Thruster Erosion Using a Fiber Optic Regression Probe

One potential life-limiting mechanism in a Hall thruster is the erosion of the ceramic material comprising the discharge channel. This is especially true for missions that require long thrusting periods and can be problematic for lifetime qualification, especially when attempting to qualify a thruster by analysis rather than a test lasting the full duration of the mission. In addition to lifetime, several analytical and numerical models include electrode erosion as a mechanism contributing to enhanced transport properties. However, there is still a great deal of dispute over the importance of erosion to transport in Hall thrusters. The capability to perform an in-situ measurement of discharge channel erosion is useful in addressing both the lifetime and transport concerns. An in-situ measurement would allow for real-time data regarding the erosion rates at different operating points, providing a quick method for empirically anchoring any analysis geared towards lifetime qualification. Erosion rate data over a thruster s operating envelope would also be useful in the modeling of the detailed physics inside the discharge chamber. There are many different sensors and techniques that have been employed to quantify discharge channel erosion in Hall thrusters. Snapshots of the wear pattern can be obtained at regular shutdown intervals using laser profilometry. Many non-intrusive techniques of varying complexity and sensitivity have been employed to detect the time-varying presence of erosion products in the thruster plume. These include the use quartz crystal microbalances, emission spectroscopy, laser induced flourescence, and cavity ring-down spectroscopy. While these techniques can provide a very accurate picture of the level of eroded material in the thruster plume, it is more difficult to use them to determine the location from which the material was eroded. Furthermore, none of the methods cited provide a true in-situ measure of erosion at the channel surface while the thruster is in operation (i.e. none yield a continuous channel erosion measurement). A recent fundamental sensor development effort has led to a novel regression, erosion, and ablation sensor technology (REAST). The REAST sensor allows for measurement of real-time surface erosion rates at a discrete surface location. The sensor was tested using a linear Hall thruster geometry (see Fig. 1), which served as a means of producing plasma erosion of a ceramic discharge chamber. The mass flow rate, discharge voltage, and applied magnetic field strength could be varied, allowing for erosion measurements over a broad thruster operating envelope. Results are presented demonstrating the ability of the REAST sensor to capture not only the insulator erosion rates but also changes in these rates as a function of the discharge parameters.

Polzin, Kurt↗

rishipillai/CSP-CorrCreep_ORNL

The modeling tool developed in the current project provides lifetime assessment of three candidate materials 740H, 282 and 625 for sCO2/molten salts heat exchanger. The tool incorporated physics-based models that accounted for all relevant underlying degradation mechanisms (creep and corrosion). Reduced-order models enabled rapid simulations of realistic component lifetimes (~100kh) while still retaining the fidelity of the complex models.

Pillai, Rishi↗

Mathematical Modeling Of A Nuclear/Thermionic Power Source

Report discusses mathematical modeling to predict performance and lifetime of spacecraft power source that is integrated combination of nuclear-fission reactor and thermionic converters. Details of nuclear reaction, thermal conditions in core, and thermionic performance combined with model of swelling of fuel.

Vandersande, Jan W.↗

Mesoscale Convective Systems in DYAMOND Global Convection‐Permitting Simulations

Abstract This study examines the deep convection populations and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) simulated in the DYAMOND (DYnamics of the atmospheric general circulation modeled on non‐hydrostatic domains) winter project. A storm tracking algorithm is applied to six DYAMOND simulations and a global high‐resolution satellite cloud and precipitation data set for comparison. The simulated frequencies of tropical deep convection and organized convective systems vary widely among models and regions, although robust MCSs are generally underestimated. The diurnal cycles of MCS initiation and mature stages are well simulated, but the amplitudes are exaggerated over land. Most models capture the observed MCS lifetime, cloud shield area, rainfall volume and movement speed. However, cloud‐top height and convective rainfall intensity are consistently overestimated, and stratiform rainfall area and amount are consistently underestimated. Possible causes for the model differences compared to observations and implications for future model developments are discussed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Contrasting Stratospheric Smoke Mass and Lifetime From 2017 Canadian and 2019/2020 Australian Megafires: Global Simulations and Satellite Observations

Stratospheric injections of carbonaceous aerosols and combustion gases by extreme wildfires have become increasingly common. Recent “megafires,” particularly large and intense fires, delivered particulate burdens to the lower stratosphere comparable to those of moderate volcanic eruptions. The 2017 Canadian megafire generated four large Pyrocumulonimbi (pyroCbs), injecting up to ≈0.3 Tg of smoke in the lower stratosphere. Even more extreme, the 2019/2020 Australian event produced a pyroCb activity resulting in stratospheric smoke intrusions of ≈1 Tg. To understand their contrasting behavior, we present global climate simulations of the atmospheric response to these events, applying smoke burdens informed by remote observations. Model outcomes, compared to satellite data of smoke transport, reproduce reasonably well the initial plume rise, at 0.2–0.3 km/day, attaining heights of ≈20 km in Canada and above 30 km in Australia. Global dispersal of the plume occurs within about 3 weeks in both cases, consistent with observations. Smoke removal timescales, ≈5 months for the Canadian megafire, agree with remote measurements. During the Australian megafire, observations indicate stratospheric injections three times as large, and models predict comparatively longer smoke lifetimes, ≈16 months. After the latter event, atmospheric optical depths and radiative cooling achieved values close to those measured following the Pinatubo eruption. Sensitivity tests of model assumptions indicate, in accord with prior studies, that smoke burden, injection heights, and black carbon content can determine plume evolution and possible climate impacts. An empirical relation between peak heights of stratospheric plumes and lifetimes is derived that can help assess megafire impacts on the stratosphere, climate and the Earth system

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis

The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH 4 ) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH 4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Gamma time-dependency in Blaxter's compartmental model.

A new two-compartment model for the passage of particles through the gastro-intestinal tract of ruminants is proposed. In this model, a gamma distribution of lifetimes is introduced in the first compartment; thereby, passage from that compartment becomes time-dependent. This modification is strongly suggested by the physical alteration which certain substances, e.g. hay particles, undergo in the digestive process. The proposed model is applied to experimental data.

Matis, J. H.↗

Estimating the Lifetimes of Nickel/Cadmium Cells

Equation based on model of flaw growth. Model assumes cell fails by growth of preexisting flaws. Flaws described by three important quantities: total number of flaws, distribution of flaw sizes and rate of flaw growth. When flaw reaches critical size failure occurs. Flaw concept, in addition to providing ready explanation for reduced lifetime, predicts two important charateristics: statistical variability of lifetime data and dependence of lifetime on volume of sample.

Fedors, R. F.↗

Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation

At the request of NASA, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model1 reviewed a number of changes that NASA proposes to make to its model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer in astronauts. The NASA model in current use was last updated in 2005, and the proposed model would incorporate recent research directed at improving the quantification and understanding of the health risks posed by the space radiation environment. NASA's proposed model is defined by the 2011 NASA report Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties--2010 . The committee's evaluation is based primarily on this source, which is referred to hereafter as the 2011 NASA report, with mention of specific sections or tables. The overall process for estimating cancer risks due to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation exposure has been fully described in reports by a number of organizations. The approaches described in the reports from all of these expert groups are quite similar. NASA's proposed space radiation cancer risk assessment model calculates, as its main output, age- and gender-specific risk of exposure-induced death (REID) for use in the estimation of mission and astronaut-specific cancer risk. The model also calculates the associated uncertainties in REID. The general approach for estimating risk and uncertainty in the proposed model is broadly similar to that used for the current (2005) NASA model and is based on recommendations by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements. However, NASA's proposed model has significant changes with respect to the following: the integration of new findings and methods into its components by taking into account newer epidemiological data and analyses, new radiobiological data indicating that quality factors differ for leukemia and solid cancers, an improved method for specifying quality factors in terms of radiation track structure concepts as opposed to the previous approach based on linear energy transfer, the development of a new solar particle event (SPE) model, and the updates to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and shielding transport models. The newer epidemiological information includes updates to the cancer incidence rates from the life span study (LSS) of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, transferred to the U.S. population and converted to cancer mortality rates from U.S. population statistics. In addition, the proposed model provides an alternative analysis applicable to lifetime never-smokers (NSs). Details of the uncertainty analysis in the model have also been updated and revised. NASA's proposed model and associated uncertainties are complex in their formulation and as such require a very clear and precise set of descriptions. The committee found the 2011 NASA report challenging to review largely because of the lack of clarity in the model descriptions and derivation of the various parameters used. The committee requested some clarifications from NASA throughout its review and was able to resolve many, but not all, of the ambiguities in the written description.

Source record↗

Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation

At the request of NASA, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model reviewed a number of changes that NASA proposes to make to its model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer in astronauts. The NASA model in current use was last updated in 2005, and the proposed model would incorporate recent research directed at improving the quantification and understanding of the health risks posed by the space radiation environment. NASA's proposed model is defined by the 2011 NASA report Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties 2010 (Cucinotta et al., 2011). The committee's evaluation is based primarily on this source, which is referred to hereafter as the 2011 NASA report, with mention of specific sections or tables cited more formally as Cucinotta et al. (2011). The overall process for estimating cancer risks due to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation exposure has been fully described in reports by a number of organizations. They include, more recently: (1) The "BEIR VII Phase 2" report from the NRC's Committee on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) (NRC, 2006); (2) Studies of Radiation and Cancer from the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR, 2006), (3) The 2007 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), ICRP Publication 103 (ICRP, 2007); and (4) The Environmental Protection Agency s (EPA s) report EPA Radiogenic Cancer Risk Models and Projections for the U.S. Population (EPA, 2011). The approaches described in the reports from all of these expert groups are quite similar. NASA's proposed space radiation cancer risk assessment model calculates, as its main output, age- and gender-specific risk of exposure-induced death (REID) for use in the estimation of mission and astronaut-specific cancer risk. The model also calculates the associated uncertainties in REID. The general approach for estimating risk and uncertainty in the proposed model is broadly similar to that used for the current (2005) NASA model and is based on recommendations by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP, 2000, 2006). However, NASA's proposed model has significant changes with respect to the following: the integration of new findings and methods into its components by taking into account newer epidemiological data and analyses, new radiobiological data indicating that quality factors differ for leukemia and solid cancers, an improved method for specifying quality factors in terms of radiation track structure concepts as opposed to the previous approach based on linear energy transfer, the development of a new solar particle event (SPE) model, and the updates to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and shielding transport models. The newer epidemiological information includes updates to the cancer incidence rates from the life span study (LSS) of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors (Preston et al., 2007), transferred to the U.S. population and converted to cancer mortality rates from U.S. population statistics. In addition, the proposed model provides an alternative analysis applicable to lifetime never-smokers (NSs). Details of the uncertainty analysis in the model have also been updated and revised. NASA's proposed model and associated uncertainties are complex in their formulation and as such require a very clear and precise set of descriptions. The committee found the 2011 NASA report challenging to review largely because of the lack of clarity in the model descriptions and derivation of the various parameters used. The committee requested some clarifications from NASA throughout its review and was able to resolve many, but not all, of the ambiguities in the written description.

Source record↗

The Relationship of Loss, Mean Age of Air and the Distribution of CFCs to Stratospheric Circulation and Implications for Atmospheric Lifetimes

Man-made molecules called chlorofluorcarbons (CFCs) are broken apart in the stratosphere by high energy light, and the reactive chlorine gases that come from them cause the ozone hole. Since the ozone layer stops high energy light from reaching low altitudes, CFCs must be transported to high altitudes to be broken apart. The number of molecules per volume (the density) is much smaller at high altitudes than near the surface, and CFC molecules have a very small chance of reaching that altitude in any particular year. Many tons of CFCs were put into the atmosphere during the end of the last century, and it will take many years for all of them to be destroyed. Each CFC has an atmospheric lifetime that depends on the amount of energy required to break them apart. Two of the gases that were made the most are CFC13 and CF2C12. It takes more energy to break apart CF2C12 than CFC13, and its lifetime is about 100 years, nearly twice as long as the lifetime for CFC13. It is hard to figure out the lifetimes from surface measurements because we don't know exactly how much was released into the air each year. Atmospheric models are used to predict what will happen to ozone and other gases as the CFCs decrease and other gases like C02 continue to increase during the next century. CFC lifetimes are used to predict future concentrations and all assessment models use the predicted future concentrations. The models have different circulations and the amount of CFC lost according to the model may not match the loss that is expected according to the lifetime. In models the amount destroyed per year depends on how fast the model pushes air into the stratosphere and how much goes to high altitudes each year. This paper looks at the way the model circulation changes the lifetimes, and looks at measurements that tell us which model is more realistic. Some models do a good job reproducing the age-of-air, which tells us that these models are circulating the stratospheric air at the right speed. These same models also do a good job reproducing the amount of CFCs in the lower atmosphere where they were measured by instruments on NASA's ER-2, a research plane that flies in the lower stratosphere. The lifetime for CFC13 that is calculated using the models that do the best job matching the data is about 25% longer than most people thought. This paper shows that using these measurements to decide which models are more realistic helps us understand why their predictions are different from each other and also to decide which predictions are more likely.

Douglass, A. R.↗

Evolution of collectivity in 118 Xe

A recoil-distance Doppler shift experiment has been performed using the Pd 102 ( F 19 , p 2 n ) reaction at a beam energy of 73 MeV to measure the lifetime of excited states in Xe 118 . Additionally, the differential decay-curve method using γ γ coincidences and a gating procedure that allows to extract the lifetime without feeding assumptions has been employed. The lifetimes obtained for the yrast states up to spin-parity 8 + are compared with interacting boson model calculations and Xe 118 can be classified as a transitional nucleus between the spherical and a deformed shape. Systematics of the B ( E 2 ) values for the 2 + → 0 + and 4 + → 2 + transitions in the isotopic chains of tin, tellurium and xenon are presented. It is proposed that a “critical point” exists at which the B ( E 2 ; 4 + → 2 + ) / B ( E 2 ; 2 + → 0 + ) ratio drops to unity for lower neutron numbers within the isotopic chain. The position of the “critical point” varies with proton number, i.e., it is presumed to be located at the same mass number A = 114 in the Sn, Te, and Xe isotopes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Search for heavy long-lived charged particles with large ionization energy loss in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

A search for heavy, long-lived, charged particles with large ionization energy loss within the silicon tracker of the CMS experiment is presented. A data set of proton-proton collisions at a center of mass energy at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV, collected in 2017 and 2018 at the CERN LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 101 fb −1 , is used in this analysis. Two different approaches for the search are taken. A new method exploits the independence of the silicon pixel and strips measurements, while the second method improves on previous techniques using ionization to determine a mass selection. No significant excess of events above the background expectation is observed. The results are interpreted in the context of the pair production of supersymmetric particles, namely gluinos, top squarks, and tau sleptons, and of the Drell-Yan pair production of fourth generation (τ′) leptons with an electric charge equal to or twice the absolute value of the electron charge (e). An interpretation of a Z’ boson decaying to two τ′ leptons with an electric charge equal to 2e is presented for the first time. The 95% confidence upper limits on the production cross section are extracted for each of these hypothetical particles.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The ages of globular cluster stars - Effects of rotation on pre-main-sequence, main-sequence, and turnoff evolution

Evolutionary sequences for low-metallicity stars (Z ranging from 0.001 to 0.0001) to study the effects of internal stellar rotation on the evolutionary time scales in the pre-main sequence, the main sequence (MS), and around the MS turnoff. Although a substantial amount of angular momentum remains in the interior, rotation is only a minor perturbation on the structure and ages of globular cluster stars. Even models with large initial angular momenta have MS lifetimes that are within 1 percent of those of standard models of the same mass and composition. Therefore, rotation does not affect age estimates of globular clusters from isochrone fitting. Furthermore, the models suggest that because rotation is not likely to affect horizontal-branch (HB) morphology, it does not affect significantly age estimates from the Delta-V method. Nevertheless, the internal angular momentum in the models is consistent with observations of surface rotational velocities on the HB, which require the preservation of a large reservoir of internal angular momentum.

Deliyannis, Constantine P.↗

Computational Methods to Accelerate Development of Corrosion Resistant Coatings for Industrial Gas Turbines

Oxidation resistant overlay coatings protect the underlying superalloy component in industrial gas turbines from oxidation attack. Rate of depletion of the Al-rich β-phase in the bond coat governs the lifetime of these coatings. The applicability of a computational method in accelerating the development of corrosion resistant coatings and significantly reducing the extensive experimental effort to predict coating lifetimes and microstructural changes in three-coated Ni-based superalloys for real operational durations (20–40 kh) was undertaken in the present study. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX), and electron microprobe analysis (EPMA) were employed to characterize MCrAlY-coated superalloy substrates (1483, 247 and X4) after exposure at 900 °C in air + 10% H 2 O for up to 20,000 h. The model predicted the longest coating lifetime for the coating on X4 substrate. Precipitation of γ' in the coatings was correctly predicted for all three coating systems. Additionally, the model was able to predict the formation of topologically close packed (TCP)-phases in the investigated coating systems.

Pillai, Rishi R.↗

Effects of applied stress and grain size on creep-rupture lifetime prediction for Haynes 282 alloy

A multiple-heat set of tensile and creep-rupture data generated from a single laboratory was used to establish and evaluate predictive equations for the average creep-limited lifetime of an aged wrought Haynes 282 alloy using two different time- and temperature-compensated parametric models (those of Larson and Miller and Wilshire et al.). The range of temperatures and stresses used to produce the creep-rupture data used in the analyses revealed that two distinct regimes, above and below the proportional limit, were necessary for more accurate predictions of creep lifetimes over the range of conditions studied. Furthermore, a 2x difference in grain size amongst the three heats revealed a breakdown in the relationship between ultimate tensile strength and creep-rupture time, thus impacting the predictive ability of the Wilshire model. Finally, lifetime predictions based on the formulations from the respective models were compared to other available Haynes 282 datasets and found to reasonably replicate the experimental trends established in other studies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗