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NASA NTRS2006

Influence of Aerosols on Monsoon Circulation and Hydroclimate

Long recognized as a major environmental hazard, aerosol is now known to have strong impacts on both regional and global water cycles and climate change. In the Asian monsoon regions, the response of the regional water cycle and climate to aerosol forcing is very complex, not only because of presence of diverse mix of aerosol species with vastly different radiative properties, but also because the monsoon is strongly influenced by ocean and land surface processes, land use, land change, as well as regional and global greenhouse warming effects. Thus, sorting out the impacts of aerosol forcing, and interaction with the monsoon water cycle is a very challenging problem. Up to now, besides the general notion that aerosols may significantly impact monsoon through altering large scale radiative heating gradients, there has been very little information regarding the specific signatures, and mechanisms of aerosol-monsoon water cycle interaction. In this talk, based on preliminary results from observations and climate model experiments, I will offer some insights into how aerosols may impact the Asian monsoon water cycle, in particular the effects of absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon), and the role of the Tibetan Plateau. The influence of aerosol forcing relative to those due to sea surface temperature and land surface processes, and impact on potential predictability of the monsoon climate system will also be discussed.

Lau, William K.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Influence of Aerosols on Monsoon Circulation and Hydroclimate

Lau, William K.M.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Cambridge Urban Development - Quantifying Changes in Urban Albedo with NASA Earth Observations to Reduce Urban Heat Island Effect in Cambridge, Massachusetts

The urban heat island (UHI) effect occurs when urban areas have temperatures that are warmer on average than the surrounding suburban and rural regions. Low albedo surfaces traditionally found in urban landscapes, such as dark asphalt and rooftops, absorb solar irradiance and reemit heat, which contributes to the UHI effect. Cambridge,Massachusetts,part of the Boston metropolitan area,expects severe impacts on human health,infrastructure, and local environmental features due to increasing urban heat. The Massachusetts – Boston NASA DEVELOP team partnered with the City of Cambridge Community Development Department and the American Geophysical Union’s Thriving Earth Exchange to inform ongoing planning and heat mitigation efforts. High Resolution Orthoimagery (HRO) and National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) scenes were analyzed in conjunction with ancillary datasets to assess changes in rooftop albedo between 2008 and 2018. Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data were used to determine nighttime land surface temperature (LST) between 2003 and 2019. Lastly, temperature anomalies were calculated using seasonally averaged nighttime LST values obtained from Aqua MODIS to display ‘hot spots’ for summers between 2004 and 2019. On average, albedo increased by 0.12 across the city, with the majority of positive change in commercial areas. Analysis of mean summer nighttime LST between 2003 and 2019 revealed a non-significant increase in temperature, although temperature anomaly maps demonstrated that Cambridge was warmer on average than rural areas. These results were incorporated in the interactive Cambridge Urban Heat Dashboard, which allows users to explore temporal trends in albedo.

Nicole Ramberg-Pihl↗

NASA NTRS2020

Cambridge Urban Development: Quantifying Changes in Urban Albedo with NASA Earth Observations to Reduce Urban Heat Island Effect in Cambridge, Massachusetts

The urban heat island (UHI) effect occurs when urban areas have temperatures that are warmer on average than the surrounding suburban and rural regions. Low albedo surfaces traditionally found in urban landscapes, such as dark asphalt and rooftops, absorb solar irradiance and reemit heat, which contributes to the UHI effect. Cambridge, Massachusetts, part of the Boston metropolitan area, expects severe impacts on human health, infrastructure, and local environmental features due to increasing urban heat. The Massachusetts – Boston NASA DEVELOP team partnered with the City of Cambridge Community Development Department and the American Geophysical Union’s Thriving Earth Exchange to inform ongoing planning and heat mitigation efforts. High Resolution Orthoimagery (HRO) and National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) scenes were analyzed in conjunction with ancillary datasets to assess changes in rooftop albedo between 2008 and 2018. Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data were used to determine nighttime land surface temperature (LST) between 2003 and 2019. Lastly, temperature anomalies were calculated using seasonally averaged nighttime LST values obtained from Aqua MODIS to display ‘hot spots’ for summers between 2004 and 2019. On average, albedo increased by 0.12 across the city, with the majority of positive change in commercial areas. Analysis of mean summer nighttime LST between 2003 and 2019 revealed a non-significant increase in temperature, although temperature anomaly maps demonstrated that Cambridge was warmer on average than rural areas. These results were incorporated in the interactive Cambridge Urban Heat Dashboard, which allows users to explore temporal trends in albedo.

Nicole Ramberg-Pihl↗

NASA NTRS2007

Generating a Long-Term Land Data Record from the AVHRR and MODIS Instruments

The goal of NASA's Land Long Term Iiata Record (LTDR) project is to produce a consistent long term data set from the AVHRR and MODIS instruments for land climate studies. The project will create daily surface reflectance and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) products at a resolution of 0.05 deg., which is identical to the Climate Modeling Grid (CMG) used for MODIS products from EOS Terra and Aqua. Higher order products such as burned area, land surface temperature, albedo, bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) correction, leaf area index (LAI), and fraction of photosyntheticalIy active radiation absorbed by vegetation (fPAR), will be created. The LTDR project will reprocess Global Area Coverage (GAC) data from AVHRR sensors onboard NOAA satellites by applying the preprocessing improvements identified in the AVHRR Pathfinder Il project and atmospheric and BRDF corrections used in MODIS processing. The preprocessing improvements include radiometric in-flight vicarious calibration for the visible and near infrared channels and inverse navigation to relate an Earth location to each sensor instantaneous field of view (IFOV). Atmospheric corrections for Rayleigh scattering, ozone, and water vapor are undertaken, with aerosol correction being implemented. The LTDR also produces a surface reflectance product for channel 3 (3.75 micrometers). Quality assessment (QA) is an integral part of the LTDR production system, which is monitoring temporal trands in the AVHRR products using time-series approaches developed for MODIS land product quality assessment. The land surface reflectance products have been evaluated at AERONET sites. The AVHRR data record from LTDR is also being compared to products from the PAL (Pathfinder AVHRR Land) and GIMMS (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies) systems to assess the relative merits of this reprocessing vis-a-vis these existing data products. The LTDR products and associated information can be found at http://ltdr.nascom.nasa.gov/ltdr/ltdr.html.

Pedelty, Jeffrey↗

NASA NTRS2022

Maine Ecological Forecasting III: Utilizing Earth Observations to Monitor Federally Endangered Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar) Habitat in Maine: An Interactive Workshop

Shifting patterns in land use and land cover (LULC), temperature, and precipitation have exacerbated a rapid decline in Federally Endangered wild Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations. The team at NASA DEVELOP partnered with the Maine Department of Marine Resources (DMR) and the Downeast Salmon Federation (DSF) to create a comprehensive workshop designed to demonstrate the applicability of Earth observations in examining these threats using the Penobscot, Union, and Machias Rivers as case studies. This entailed curating tutorials for acquiring and analyzing satellite data using Google Earth Engine, EarthExplorer, and Earthdata. The team demonstrated how to classify LULC in ArcGIS Pro from 1985 until 2021 using Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operation Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI), and datasets from the United Stated Geological Survey (USGS) National Land Cover Database (NLCD), showing an overall transition from coniferous forests to other LULC classes. The team also demonstrated how to use historical data from Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG) to generate 2021 land surface temperature (LST) and precipitation maps, respectively, showing that Maine was abnormally dry during the summer in an increasingly warm region. These workshop materials will aid the partners in integrating NASA Earth observations into their future salmon habitat restoration initiatives.

Jonathan Falciani↗

NASA NTRS2014

Modeling the Influences of Aerosols on Pre-Monsoon Circulation and Rainfall over Southeast Asia

We conduct several sets of simulations with a version of NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5, (GEOS-5) Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) equipped with a two-moment cloud microphysical scheme to understand the role of biomass burning aerosol (BBA) emissions in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the pre-monsoon period of February-May. Our experiments are designed so that both direct and indirect aerosol effects can be evaluated. For climatologically prescribed monthly sea surface temperatures, we conduct sets of model integrations with and without biomass burning emissions in the area of peak burning activity, and with direct aerosol radiative effects either active or inactive. Taking appropriate differences between AGCM experiment sets, we find that BBA affects liquid clouds in statistically significantly ways, increasing cloud droplet number concentrations, decreasing droplet effective radii (i.e., a classic aerosol indirect effect), and locally suppressing precipitation due to a deceleration of the autoconversion process, with the latter effect apparently also leading to cloud condensate increases. Geographical re-arrangements of precipitation patterns, with precipitation increases downwind of aerosol sources are also seen, most likely because of advection of weakly precipitating cloud fields. Somewhat unexpectedly, the change in cloud radiative effect (cloud forcing) at surface is in the direction of lesser cooling because of decreases in cloud fraction. Overall, however, because of direct radiative effect contributions, aerosols exert a net negative forcing at both the top of the atmosphere and, perhaps most importantly, the surface, where decreased evaporation triggers feedbacks that further reduce precipitation. Invoking the approximation that direct and indirect aerosol effects are additive, we estimate that the overall precipitation reduction is about 40% due to the direct effects of absorbing aerosols, which stabilize the atmosphere and reduce surface latent heat fluxes via cooler land surface temperatures. Further refinements of our two-moment cloud microphysics scheme are needed for a more complete examination of the role of aerosol-convection interactions in the seasonal development of the SEA monsoon.

SE Asia Monsoon↗

DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity of Fine‐Resolution Urban Heat Island Simulations to Soil Moisture Parameterization

ABSTRACT Urban areas experience the impact of natural disasters, such as heatwaves and flash floods, disparately in different neighbourhoods across a city. The demand for precise urban hydrometeorological and hydroclimatological modelling to examine this disparity, and the interacting challenges posed by climate change and urbanisation, has thus surged. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has served such operational and research purposes for decades. Recent advancements in WRF, including enhanced numerical schemes and sophisticated urban atmospheric‐hydrological parameterizations, have empowered the simulation of urban geophysical processes at high resolution (~1 km), but even this resolution misses significant urban microclimate variability. This study applies the large‐eddy simulations (LES) mode within WRF, coupled with single‐layer urban canopy models (SLUCM), to enable even finer‐scale modelling (150 m) of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in the Baltimore metropolitan area. We run nine scenarios to evaluate various methods of initializing soil moisture and various spinup lead times, and to assess the impact of WRF's Mosaic approach in depicting subgrid‐scale processes. We evaluate the scenarios by comparing the WRF simulated land surface temperature (LST) against Landsat LST and the WRF simulated hourly 2‐m air temperatures (AT) with observations from eight weather stations across the domain. Results underscore the paramount influence of the lead spinup time on the spatiotemporal distribution of simulated soil moisture, consequently shaping WRF's efficacy in predicting the UHI. Furthermore, interpolating soil moisture‐related parameters from the parent for child domain initialization yields a notable reduction in mean and root‐mean‐squared errors. This improvement was particularly evident in simulations with the longest spinup time, affirming the importance of carefully designing the initialization of soil moisture for improved urban temperature predictions.

Talebpour, Mahdad↗

DOE OSTI2023

Influence of urban extent discrepancy on the estimation of surface urban heat island intensity: A global-scale assessment in 892 cities

The estimation of surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) is crucial for studying the urban thermal environment, which is influenced not only by the commonly known definition of rural reference but also by the delineation of urban extent. Existing studies relies on various urban extent products defined in different ways, and the influence of urban extent discrepancy (UED) on SUHII estimates still remains unclear. In this study, we collected five open-source global urban extent products (GUEPs) for the year 2015 and corresponding daily land surface temperature (LST) observations (MYD11A1). Based on these products, we quantified the UED-induced uncertainty in SUHII estimates by comparing absolute difference (ΔSUHII AD ) and relative difference (ΔSUHII RD ) in SUHII among GUEPs across 892 global cities. Additionally, we introduced an ISF-constrained (ISF–C) method to reduce SUHII differences among GUEPs by constraining the impervious surface fraction (ISF) within urban and rural extents. The results show that urban extents delineated by different GUEPs are not consistent, leading to their difference in ISF as well as LST, which in turn causes uncertainties in the estimated SUHII. On average for global cities, the annual daytime and nighttime ΔSUHII AD are 0.46 ± 0.02 °C (mean ± 95% confidence interval) and 0.24 ± 0.01 °C, with corresponding ΔSUHII RD of 42.0 ± 2.7% and 35.2 ± 2.3%, respectively. The UED-induced uncertainty in SUHII estimates varies among climate zones, and the annual daytime ΔSUHII RD averaged for cities located in the arid zone reaches up to 60.8 ± 6.6%, which is nearly twice as high as that in other climate zones. More importantly, both ΔSUHII AD and ΔSUHII RD show lower values when using the ISF-C method, implying the effectiveness of this method. This study highlights the non-negligible impact of UED on the estimation of SUHII, which requires more attention due to the inconsistency of urban extents among current products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Estimation of intensity, footprint, and capacity of surface urban heat islands using a direction-enhanced adaptive synchronous extraction (DEASE) method

Here, the surface urban heat island (SUHI) effect, assessed through remotely sensed land surface temperature (LST), remains a focal point in urban climate research. Conventional indicators like SUHI intensity (SUHII) and footprint (SUHIF) capture peak values and spatial extent but fail to account for the cumulative thermal load—a critical dimension reflecting the total heat exposure imposed by spatially continuous warming, which directly limits a holistic assessment of ecological and societal impacts of the SUHI effect. Therefore, this study introduces an indicator termed SUHI capacity (SUHIC), designed to quantify the aggregated SUHI effect by integrating the magnitude of the warming signal across all affected areas, thereby enabling a more comprehensive evaluation of urban thermal environments. Furthermore, a direction-enhanced adaptive synchronous extraction (DEASE) method is proposed for the quantification of SUHIC. This method can dynamically identify the optimal background reference area based on the urban-rural LST gradients in various directions within the city, without relying on predefined mathematical models as previously. The results from 102 European cities first confirm that the directional variations in urban-rural LST gradients, and the DEASE method can effectively capture these distinctions for the simultaneous estimation of SUHII, SUHIF, and SUHIC. Secondly, the spatial patterns of absolute SUHIC values show strong associations with those of SUHIF (R2>0.86), while its relative values (normalized by the area of urban) align more closely with SUHII (R2 > 0.64). More importantly, SUHIC can serve as a crucial reference for assessing the urban thermal signal when SUHII and SUHIF diverge. The proposed method and framework contribute to standardizing the quantification of the SUHI effect.

Indicator↗

DOE OSTI2020

ECOSTRESS: NASA's Next Generation Mission to Measure Evapotranspiration From the International Space Station

Abstract The ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) was launched to the International Space Station on 29 June 2018 by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The primary science focus of ECOSTRESS is centered on evapotranspiration (ET), which is produced as Level‐3 (L3) latent heat flux ( LE ) data products. These data are generated from the Level‐2 land surface temperature and emissivity product (L2_LSTE), in conjunction with ancillary surface and atmospheric data. Here, we provide the first validation (Stage 1, preliminary) of the global ECOSTRESS clear‐sky ET product (L3_ET_PT‐JPL, Version 6.0) against LE measurements at 82 eddy covariance sites around the world. Overall, the ECOSTRESS ET product performs well against the site measurements (clear‐sky instantaneous/time of overpass: r 2 = 0.88; overall bias = 8%; normalized root‐mean‐square error, RMSE = 6%). ET uncertainty was generally consistent across climate zones, biome types, and times of day (ECOSTRESS samples the diurnal cycle), though temperate sites are overrepresented. The 70‐m‐high spatial resolution of ECOSTRESS improved correlations by 85%, and RMSE by 62%, relative to 1‐km pixels. This paper serves as a reference for the ECOSTRESS L3 ET accuracy and Stage 1 validation status for subsequent science that follows using these data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Improving CLM5.0 Biomass and Carbon Exchange Across the Western United States Using a Data Assimilation System

The Western United States is dominated by natural lands that play a critical role for carbon balance, water quality, and timber reserves. This region is also particularly vulnerable to forest mortality from drought, insect attack, and wildfires, thus requiring constant monitoring to assess ecosystem health. Carbon monitoring techniques are challenged by the complex mountainous terrain, thus there is an opportunity for data assimilation systems that combine land surface models and satellite-derived observations to provide improved carbon monitoring. Here, we use the Data Assimilation Research Testbed to adjust the Community Land Model (CLM5.0) with remotely sensed observations of leaf area and above-ground biomass. The adjusted simulation significantly reduced the above-ground biomass and leaf area, leading to a reduction in both photosynthesis and respiration fluxes. The reduction in the carbon fluxes mostly offset, thus both the adjusted and free simulation projected a weak carbon sink to the land. This result differed from a separate observation-constrained model (FLUXCOM) that projected strong carbon uptake to the land. Simulation diagnostics suggested water limitation had an important influence upon the magnitude and spatial pattern of carbon uptake through photosynthesis. We recommend that additional observations important for water cycling (e.g., snow water equivalent, land surface temperature) be included to improve the veracity of the spatial pattern in carbon uptake. Furthermore, the assimilation system should be enhanced to maximize the number of the simulated state variables that are adjusted, especially those related to the recommended observed quantities including water cycling and soil carbon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Contrasting Trends and Drivers of Global Surface and Canopy Urban Heat Islands

A comprehensive comparison of the trends and drivers of global surface and canopy urban heat islands (termed / s and / c trends, respectively) is critical for better designing urban heat mitigation strategies. However, such a global comparison remains largely absent. Using spatially continuous land surface temperatures and surface air temperatures (2003–2020), here we find that the magnitude of the global mean / s trend (0.19 ± 0.006°C/decade, mean ± SE) for 5,643 cities worldwide is nearly six-times the corresponding / c trend (0.03 ± 0.002°C/decade) during the day, while the former (0.06 ± 0.004°C/decade) is double the latter (0.03 ± 0.002°C/decade) at night. Variable importance scores indicate that global daytime / s trend is slightly more controlled by surface property, while background climate plays a more dominant role in regulating global daytime / c trend. At night, both global / s and / c trends are mainly controlled by background climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Satellite Clear‐Sky Observations Overestimate Surface Urban Heat Islands in Humid Cities

Satellite-based thermal infrared (TIR) land surface temperature (LST) is hindered by cloud cover and is applicable solely under clear-sky conditions for estimating surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII). Clear-sky SUHII may not accurately represent all-sky conditions, potentially introducing quantitative biases in assessing urban heat islands. However, the differences between clear-sky and all-sky SUHIIs and their spatiotemporal variations are still poorly understood. Our analysis of over 600 global cities demonstrates that clear-sky SUHII is mostly higher than all-sky SUHII, particularly in summer, daytime, and precipitation-rich regions. Besides, clear-sky SUHII typically exhibits stronger seasonal and diurnal contrasts than all-sky SUHII, especially for cities located in humid regions. These discrepancies can be attributed mainly to the increased missing LST data caused by cloud enhancement in urban areas. Our findings highlight the tendency for clear-sky observations to overestimate SUHII, providing valuable insights for standardizing the quantification of surface urban heat islands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Surface Energy Dynamics and Canopy Structural Properties in Intact and Disturbed Forests in the Southern Amazon

The Brazilian Amazon has been a focus of land development with large swaths of forests converted to agriculture. Forest degradation by selective logging and fires has accompanied the agricultural frontier and has resulted in significant impacts on Amazonian ecosystems. Changes in forest structure resulting from forest disturbances have large impacts on the surface energy balance, including on land surface temperature (LST) and evapotranspiration (ET). This study's objective is to assess the effects of forest disturbances on water fluxes and forest structure in a transitional forest site in the Southern Amazon. We used ET and LST products from MODIS and Landsat 8 and GEDI-derived forest structure data to address our research questions. We found that disturbances induced seasonal water stress, more pronounced in croplands/pastures than in forests (differences up to 20% in the dry season), and more pronounced in second-growth and recently burned areas than in logged and intact forests (differences up to 12% in the dry season). Moreover, ET and LST were negatively related, with more consistent relationships across disturbance classes in the dry season (R 2 : 0.41–0.87) than in the wet season (R 2 : 0.18–0.49). Forest and cropland or pasture classes showed contrasting relationships in the dry season. Finally, we found that forest structure exhibited stronger relationships with ET and LST in the most disturbed forests (R 2 : 0.01–0.43) than in the least disturbed forests (R 2 < 0.05). Our findings help to elucidate degraded forests functioning under a changing climate and to improve estimates of water and energy fluxes in Amazonian degraded forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Emergent constraints on future methane emissions from global wetlands

Future methane (CH 4 ) emissions from natural wetlands are predicted to increase due to global warming, leading to positive feedback on climate change. However, the magnitude of this increase remains highly uncertain. Here we present novel ensemble simulations of seven state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models to estimate wetland CH 4 emissions (eCH 4 ) during the twenty-first century. Our estimates suggest that for every 1 °C increase in global land surface temperature, there is a 24 ± 10 Tg CH 4 yr −1 increase in eCH 4 . We also identify an emergent relationship between contemporary temperature dependence and projected eCH 4 . When constrained by 163 site-year eddy-covariance measurements of eCH 4 , we show that wetland emissions can increase by 50–60% by the 2090s relative to the 2010s under a high-warming scenario. The projected decadal increase in eCH 4 from the 2010–2019 baseline to the 2030s would very likely (90% probability) offset an amount equivalent in scale to 8–10% of anthropogenic eCH 4 at the 2020 level, comparable to the reductions committed under the Global Methane Pledge. However, the constraint is dominated by mid- and high-latitude observations, with limited tropical coverage, and uncertainties in projected wetland inundation contribute substantially to uncertainty in eCH 4 . Our findings reduce the uncertainty in projected wetland methane–climate feedback and highlight its potential impacts on methane mitigation efforts to slow global warming.

Zhang, Zhen [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Be↗

DOE OSTI2022

Surface warming in global cities is substantially more rapid than in rural background areas

Warming trends in cities are influenced both by large-scale climate processes and by local-scale urbanization. However, little is known about how surface warming trends of global cities differ from those characterized by weather observations in the rural background. Here, through statistical analyses of satellite land surface temperatures (2002 to 2021), we find that the mean surface warming trend is 0.50 ± 0.20 K·decade –1 (mean ± one S.D.) in the urban core of 2000-plus city clusters worldwide, and is 29% greater than the trend for the rural background. On average, background climate change is the largest contributor explaining 0.30 ± 0.11 K·decade –1 of the urban surface warming. In city clusters in China and India, however, more than 0.23 K·decade –1 of the mean trend is attributed to urban expansion. We also find evidence of urban greening in European cities, which offsets 0.13 ± 0.034 K·decade –1 of background surface warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Heat metrics and thresholds reshape population exposure and inequality signals

Extreme heat is intensifying worldwide, yet estimates of heat hazard and exposure inequality depend on both the heat metric and how extreme days are defined. Using summer 2022 across the Mediterranean, we quantify population heat exposure with four metrics—land surface temperature (LST), air temperature (Ta), heat index (HI), and wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT)—under absolute (fixed-value) and relative (anomaly-based) thresholds. Under absolute thresholds, total heat exposure differs by more than two orders of magnitude across metrics (31.3 billion person-days for Ta vs 0.3 billion for HI). Geographic hotspots also diverge: WBGT concentrates in humid coastal North Africa (e.g. the Nile Delta), whereas Ta and LST are more widespread. Under relative thresholds, exposure totals converge and cross-metric hotspot agreement increases (e.g. Ta–WBGT top-tercile overlap increases from 10.7% to 29.0%), shifting hotspots toward densely populated southern Europe. Crucially, the exposure–deprivation relationship also reverses across threshold frameworks: absolute thresholds concentrate exposure in more deprived North Africa and the Middle East, whereas relative thresholds shift the burden toward less-deprived European cities. This sensitivity is decision-relevant: city rankings based on WBGT exposure duration are almost completely reordered when switching threshold frameworks. Threshold choice therefore systematically reshapes hotspot patterns and inequality signals. Reporting both absolute and relative exposures can reveal hidden hotspots and support more targeted heat-risk monitoring and intervention planning.

Mediterranean↗